At the start of this week, US nonfarm payrolls for February unexpectedly declined, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts rebounded somewhat, briefly boosting copper prices. Trump then signaled that tensions between the US and Iran might ease, sending oil prices lower and the US dollar weaker, which triggered a phased rebound in copper prices. However, after oil tankers in the Gulf region came under attack and Iran stated that it would continue to close the Strait of Hormuz, tensions in the Middle East escalated again. Rising crude oil prices lifted safe-haven sentiment, and the stronger US dollar index weighed on copper prices. At the same time, US February CPI came in line with expectations, and market bets on interest rate cuts within the year were scaled back markedly, weakening expectations for macro liquidity. In terms of positioning, bulls continued to reduce positions, and capital turned more cautious. Overall, macro uncertainty and repeated shifts in interest rate cut expectations remain intertwined, and copper prices are still likely to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Fundamentals side, TC in the copper concentrates market was still falling. Recent mine tender prices pointed to a median of -$60/mt. For copper cathode, the inventory buildup showed a turning point, and the import window opened slightly. According to SMM, downstream operating activity was more active than expected, with active pricing below the copper price range of 100,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic is expected to remain unchanged, and geopolitical tensions are still expected to provide strong support to the US dollar, leaving significant short-term resistance for copper prices. However, fundamentals are supporting copper prices, which are expected to remain fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $12,800/mt and $13,200/mt, and SHFE copper between 99,000 yuan/mt and 101,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as delivery approaches, spot market trading logic will fluctuate with the price spread between futures contracts and funding costs, and is expected to gradually rise next week. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 180 yuan/mt to a discount of 80 yuan/mt.

[SMM Copper Express] The correction in copper prices drove enterprises to restock for rigid demand, but enterprises maintained ongoing production scheduling, so days of raw material inventories at major wire and cable enterprises in China fell 0.31 days MoM this week; as for finished product inventories, the correction in copper prices boosted downstream consumption, but when copper prices remained in a high range, they still suppressed end-user purchase willingness, and days of finished product inventories at major wire and cable enterprises in China fell 0.41 days MoM this week.

SMM March 13: This week, China’s domestic tungsten market exhibited high-level oscillations with intensified supply-demand competition. Multiple mines put products up for auction during the week, but transactions were bleak.As of March 13, tungsten prices remained largely stable, yet market sentiment became extremely divided.

[SMM SHFE Copper Flash News] According to the SHFE warrant daily report, copper futures warrants decreased by 11,264 mt during the day, the largest daily decline so far in 2026. Among them, Shanghai fell by 4,750 mt, breaking the previous trend of लगातार increases; Guangdong fell by 447 mt; Jiangsu fell by 5,867 mt; and Zhejiang fell by 200 mt. As copper prices declined during the week, downstream restocking demand emerged, copper cathode social inventories had already begun a slight destocking, and Shanghai spot copper also shifted from discounts to premiums.

This week (3.6-3.12), the operating rate of China's brass billet industry rebounded 8.72 percentage points WoW to 51.95%, with a notably faster pace of work resumption. Enterprise orders generally improved, with Ningbo standing out and production schedules remaining relatively full; downstream hardware, plumbing, and other sectors actively resumed work, demand from the refrigeration sector stayed steady, and copper prices pulling back to below 100,000 yuan/mt drove the release of some purchase orders.

[SMM Copper Express] This week, the operating rate of SMM copper wire and cable enterprises was 66.59, up 5.69 percentage points MoM. The operating rate steadily rebounded this week, mainly due to a slight correction in copper prices that drove order release, coupled with support from concentrated power grid deliveries, though the current pace of order recovery was still weaker than in the same period last year. SMM expects the operating rate of copper wire and cable enterprises next week to increase by 3.45 percentage points MoM to 70.04, down 4.49 percentage points YoY.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 89,640 yuan/mt and hit a high of 89,640 yuan/mt early in the session, then saw wide swings. After the daytime session opened, the center of copper prices slid straight down and dipped to 88,550 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 88,740 yuan/mt, down 0.68%. Open interest rose to 5,792 lots, up 119 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume increased to 3,285 lots, indicating that bears added positions. From a macro perspective, the fallout from an attack on an oil tanker in the Gulf region continued to unfold, and Iran stated it might keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, sending crude oil prices higher. Safe-haven sentiment boosted the US dollar index, while the market also lowered expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts this year to 20 basis points; together, these factors weighed on copper prices. Fundamentals, supply side, structural divergence: inventory at high levels but warrants declined, and under delivery-driven logic, overall supply remained relatively loose. Supply was ample; demand side, downstream demand was gradually released. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 100,310 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract at 88,740 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 100,276 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2603 contract and BC copper was 34, and the spread reverted to a contango structure.

【SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash News】This week, the operating rate of the copper cathode rod enterprise industry increased by 10.45 percentage points WoW. The pullback in copper prices drove a surge in orders, enterprises accelerated their production pace, and operating rates at downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire producers rebounded steadily. Enterprises were expected to continue raising output and restocking next week, while downstream orders were expected to remain stable. SMM expected the operating rate to increase by 6.27 percentage points WoW to 79.19%.

Philippines Market: Tight Supply and Surging Freight Rates Supported Ore Prices to Fluctuate at Highs Philippine nickel ore prices rose sharply this week. In terms of prices, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotes were $64-68/wmt for Ni 1.3% grade, $71-75/wmt for Ni 1.4% grade, and $78-82/wmt for Ni 1.5% grade, up $6 WoW. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $65.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $72.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Supply side, although the Philippines was transitioning into the dry season, mining hubs such as Surigao and Homonhon continued to see heavy rainfall due to a low-pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao. Although Metro Manila and most parts of Luzon saw hot and sunny weather, the probability of rainfall exceeding 50 mm in Surigao and Caraga remained “very high.” Strong thunderstorms and scattered precipitation were expected to further intensify during March 9 to 13. Affected by the trough of the low-pressure area and the easterlies, persistent rainfall may continue to disrupt open-pit mining and vessel loading operations in southern regions. Market supply remained scarce. Driven by both supply tightness caused by cuts in Indonesia’s RKAB quotas and expected supply gaps, mainstream prices for Philippine nickel ore have surged recently. As of Friday, March 13, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 5.23 million mt, down 500,000 mt WoW. Current total port inventory was equivalent to about 41,100 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, China’s NPI prices rose this week, with spot transaction prices up about 1,089.9 yuan per nickel unit. As smelters had sufficient stockpiling earlier and showed limited acceptance of recently high-priced nickel ore, most were currently taking a wait-and-see stance. In terms of ocean freight rates, affected by a sharp jump in oil prices, nickel ore freight rates climbed, with the ocean freight rate from the Philippines to Lianyungang reaching $15/mt or above. Looking ahead, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs. Indonesia Market: Under Weather Disruptions and RKAB Policy Clarification, Tight Supply Continued Indonesia's local nickel ore prices rose somewhat this week. Indonesia’s nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) for the first half of March was set at $17,104/dmt, down 3.21% MoM. According to SMM Indonesia nickel ore premium data, average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively. Among them, the port arrivals under domestic trade price for 1.6% grade was $65.2-74.2/wmt. The simultaneous strengthening in premiums this month reflected both the release of smelters’ restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota cuts, while the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up to $24-26/wmt. From the supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 13, Indonesia’s key nickel ore producing areas of Morowali, Konawe, and Halmahera were affected this week by strong thunderstorms and extremely high humidity of up to 94%. Weather continued to fluctuate, causing soil to become highly saturated and seriously hindering mine drying and transport operations. Morowali and Konawe will face a heavy rainfall system over the weekend with precipitation probability as high as 80%, while Halmahera, under high-humidity conditions, is expected to see rainfall intensity rebound again next Friday, with overall logistics capacity remaining constrained. At present, RKAB approvals for most small- and medium-sized mines remained pending. As existing quotas could no longer be used for next month’s production and sales, rising supply uncertainty was pushing nickel ore prices higher. Demand side, as some Indonesian smelters faced uncertainty over nickel ore resources and found it difficult to secure high-grade saprolite ore, nickel ore prices remained firm. To secure raw material supply, some smelters even raised trading bonuses. Overall, although the impact of the current MOMS system failure on mines had largely faded, overall nickel ore supply remained tight. Although spot supply of limonite ore was relatively sufficient, some related production lines were currently running at low load due to a tailings dam landslide accident at some MHP projects in an Indonesian industrial park, leading to temporary weakness in overall demand. However, considering concerns among some Indonesian smelters over RKAB approval uncertainty, raw material stockpiling demand from newly commissioned projects, and continued growth in demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices are expected to closely track saprolite ore and remain high. On the policy side, in response to recent market rumors that “production quotas (RKAB) will be uniformly supplemented by an additional 25%-30%,” Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), clarified on March 3, 2026, that RKAB supplements would be based on individual assessments of enterprise production capacity and compliance, rather than a uniform proportional increase, and indicated that the approval process would start in H2 2026. Officials emphasized that this was a routine regulatory process for resource optimization, rather than a passive countermeasure to the previous output cap policy. Looking ahead, affected by the relatively slow progress of RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices are expected to remain more likely to rise than fall in April.

SMM March 12 News: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 160 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 100,595 yuan/mt, down 265 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,475 yuan/mt, down 265 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory had declined sharply for three consecutive days, mainly due to an increase in shipments. Current inventory had fallen by 10kt from the year-to-date high. Although inventory continued to fall today, traders and downstream buyers were markedly less active in restocking than yesterday; however, suppliers were unwilling to cut prices to sell, with significant disagreements between buyers and sellers, resulting in poor overall transactions. Today, purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.4, down 0.11 from the previous trading day, and shipment sentiment was 3.3, down 0.27 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried by logging into the database). Overall, traders and downstream buyers were markedly less active in restocking than yesterday, and spot premiums were unchanged from yesterday.