BHP reported a 7% drop in quarterly copper output but expects full-year production to remain strong, indicating resilience despite operational challenges.

Two of Zambia’s major copper smelters and sulfuric acid producers plan to conduct extended maintenance shutdowns later this year. This will further tighten the country’s copper output and also affect supplies of chemicals such as sulfuric acid used in copper and cobalt processing. Zambia’s copper smelters produce approximately 2 million metric tons of sulfuric acid annually, mostly as a by-product for local mines, with surplus volumes exported to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Meanwhile, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have disrupted global supplies of sulfuric acid and other leaching chemicals. As a result, mines in the DRC — the world’s top cobalt producer and second-largest copper producer — have had to reduce chemical usage or even consider cutting production.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has raised planned copper sales to the United States to 500,000 tonnes through a state-backed marketing venture, marking a fivefold increase from its initial January commitment. The deal, first reported by Semafor, is led by state miner Gécamines and marketed through a joint venture with Mercuria Energy Group, with backing from the US International Development Finance Corporation. It targets copper output from Gécamines’ minority stakes in major operations, including Kamoto Copper Company and Tenke Fungurume.

Recently, the center of copper prices continued to shift upward. The most-traded SHFE copper contract steadily climbed after hitting a periodic low of 91,500 yuan/mt on March 23, 2026, reaching a high of 103,130 yuan/mt as of April 15, representing a gain of 12.71% from low to high, with the latest closing price at 102,090 yuan/mt. The latest LME copper price stood at $13,262.5/mt. The interaction between macro sentiment and fundamentals jointly drove the market to hold up well. This round of copper price strength was not dominated by a single factor, but rather the result of a resonance of multiple factors including geopolitical conflicts, supply constraints, inventory changes, and seasonal consumption patterns. Regarding the core driving logic behind the current copper price strength, SMM will provide a detailed analysis from three dimensions: the contraction of SX-EW copper supply outside China, the macro perspective on the US dollar and geopolitical developments, and China's copper inventories and supply-demand pattern. The details are as follows: （I) Sulphuric Acid Export Restriction Policies Strengthened Expectations for SX-EW Copper Production Cuts, and Supply Contraction Supported Copper Prices Sulphuric acid prices have been rising continuously since March, mainly due to the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately 50% of the world's seaborne sulphur volume, has been disrupted, leading to an overall tightening of global sulphur supply. In China's sulphuric acid production, approximately 40% comes from sulphur-based acid production and 40% from smelting acid. China is highly dependent on sulphur imports, and the tightness in raw material supply has provided certain support for domestic sulphuric acid prices. The DRC is the world's second-largest copper-producing country, with production highly dependent on sulphuric acid. According to SMM, producing 1 mt of copper cathode locally requires 2–6 mt of sulphuric acid. Based on an average of 4 mt, annual sulphuric acid consumption is approximately 10 million mt, of which more than half relies on imports from the Middle East. The Middle East is both a critical global energy transportation route and a core hub for sulphur trade. The current US-Iran conflict has lasted 46 days, and local smelter sulphuric acid inventory is at low levels. Coupled with China, as a major global sulphuric acid exporter, imposing export restrictions, ex-China sulphuric acid supply has tightened further. The sulphuric acid shortage has constrained SX-EW copper output to a certain extent, creating expectations of a contraction in global copper cathode supply and providing clear bullish support for copper prices. According to SMM, SX-EW copper production in the DRC and Zambia has been gradually suffering losses recently, especially at some smaller smelters. The originally projected SMM global copper cathode balance surplus for 2026 is expected to slow down YoY. Expectations of copper cathode supply losses have strengthened, and the market is expected to gradually shift from a loose balance to a tight balance. The tightening supply-side expectations are set to provide support for copper prices. II. Easing geopolitical tensions coupled with inflation pullback push the US dollar index lower, providing support for copper prices Earlier, the escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to push up energy prices, increasing inflationary pressures. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled somewhat, and the market gradually priced in unchanged interest rates for the full year. Recently, signs of easing emerged in the geopolitical conflict. Trump stated that the US and Iran are expected to hold talks in Pakistan within the next two days. Pakistan called for a 45-day ceasefire extension, and both sides agreed to continue negotiations, with only the time and location yet to be determined. According to sources familiar with the matter, Iran is considering temporarily suspending shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz to create a favorable atmosphere for negotiations, and the US military has no plan to attack Iranian oil tankers. On April 14, Trump publicly stated that the military campaign against Iran was nearing its end, with positive signals being gradually released, The pullback in crude oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar index provided some support for copper prices. Meanwhile, the pullback in oil prices eased inflationary pressures, leaving room for subsequent interest rate cuts, and sentiment improved somewhat. III. Social Inventory Declined for Five Consecutive Weeks; Combined with Peak Consumption Season and Maintenance Cycle, Tight Supply-Demand Conditions Supported Copper Prices After the Lantern Festival, copper prices gradually pulled back, downstream consumption recovered somewhat, and SMM social copper inventories in major regions across China continued to destock from mid-March. Recently, copper prices rebounded somewhat, downstream purchasing became more cautious, and the destocking pace slowed down. As of April 13, SMM social copper inventories in major regions across China had decreased from 578,900 mt on March 9, 2026 to 299,800 mt, maintaining destocking for five consecutive weeks. China is currently entering the traditional peak consumption season. Copper scrap policies still carry certain uncertainties, and the overall operating rate of scrap utilization enterprises remains relatively low, providing some support for copper cathode rod consumption. Meanwhile, global smelters are entering a concentrated maintenance period in Q2, further tightening the supply side. The continued decline in inventory, combined with a tight supply-demand pattern, is providing some support for copper prices. Overall, the macro front and fundamentals are currently forming a degree of resonance, providing relatively positive support for copper prices. From a macro perspective, geopolitical conflicts showed signs of easing, the US dollar index pulled back somewhat, and earlier inflationary pressures were alleviated to some extent. On the fundamentals side, tightening sulphuric acid supply constrained SX-EW copper output outside China, SMM China social inventory continued to decline, and combined with relatively strong domestic fundamentals, the supply-demand pattern showed a tightening trend. However, as copper prices rebounded above 100,000 yuan/mt, downstream acceptance weakened somewhat, and recent purchase willingness also turned slightly cautious. Going forward, it is worth watching whether actual demand performance during the traditional peak season can meet expectations against the backdrop of high copper prices.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Supply side, smelters will maintain normal operations during the Qingming Festival holiday, and domestic spot copper output will continue, while imported copper will arrive successively, making spot cargo in circulation in the post-holiday market more ample. In addition, although some suppliers sold off cargo slightly during the day, with Honglu quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, this did not drive overall spot discounts lower, reflecting that suppliers still have the willingness to hold prices firm at current price levels, with spot discounts receiving some support on the downside. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between expectations of ample supply and suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at a discount after the holiday.

An India-US consortium has acquired CHEMAF’s copper-cobalt assets in the DRC, with plans to scale copper output significantly. The deal underscores intensifying geopolitical competition for critical mineral resources.

Zambia is courting global investors, including from the United States, as it aims to more than triple its copper output to 3 million metric tons by 2031, its mines minister said on Tuesday.Africa’s second-largest copper producer after Democratic Republic of Congo is seen as one of the countries Washington is keen to partner with as the US escalates efforts to loosen China’s grip on materials crucial to advanced manufacturing.

Zambia's mining minister said on Tuesday that the country was actively attracting global investors, including those from the US, with the goal of more than tripling copper production to 3 million mt by 2031.Zambia's copper production last year was 890,346 mt, falling short of the annual production target of 1 million mt. Zambia is Africa's second-largest copper producer, behind only the DRC. Copper is a key material for EVs and renewable energy infrastructure and is critical to the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Hudbay Minerals announced it will acquire the remaining shares of Arizona Sonoran Copper for $1.48 billion boosting its U.S. copper output capacity to nearly 500,000 tonnes annually as global demand grows.

Data from the Chilean National Statistics Institute showed that Chile, the world's largest copper producer, saw its copper production fall 3% YoY in January to 413,712 mt. The agency stated that Chile's manufacturing output dropped 3.8% YoY that month.