SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,044/mt. It touched a high of $13,063.5/mt in early trading, then the center moved lower to a low of $12,929/mt, and finally closed at $12,948.5/mt, down 0.77%. Trading volume came in at 17,000 lots, down 235 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 304,000 lots, up 279 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting an increase in bears' positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,240 yuan/mt. It touched a high of 101,240 yuan/mt at the open, then the center moved lower to a low of 100,560 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,860 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume came in at 26,000 lots, down 62,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 189,000 lots, down 3,320 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting a reduction in bulls' positions overall.

[SMM Weekly Survey of the Aluminum Downstream Sector: Downstream Aluminum Operating Rate Continued to Rebound to 61.9%, with High Prices Suppressing the Peak "Golden March" Season] This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China rose 2.4 percentage points MoM to 61.9%, overall extending the post-holiday recovery trend, with all segments rebounding MoM, and the industry as a whole entering a normal production pace.

SMM, March 12: Guangdong: Spot premiums in the region continued to rise this week. Lower copper prices, coupled with an increase in terminal orders, lifted consumption among copper processing enterprises, driving inventory lower and supporting higher spot premiums. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at 160 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from last Thursday; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread in standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong stood at 0 yuan/mt. With the spread relatively small, there was no cross-region cargo transfer. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 90,800 mt, down 6,300 mt from last Thursday. Warrants totaled 51,300 mt, down 1,500 mt from last Thursday. As spot cargo supply decreased and discounts turned into premiums, warrants began flowing into the market. Specifically, warehouse arrivals this week were 13,100 mt/week, down 2,500 mt/week WoW and slightly below the annual average of 14,000 mt/week. Arrivals of both imported copper and domestic copper declined WoW this week. Warehouse withdrawals were 20,200 mt/week, up 8,600 mt/week WoW and far above the annual average of 14,200 mt/week. After the Lantern Festival, downstream enterprises fully resumed operations. In addition, many enterprises had not stockpiled much before the holiday, and actively replenished inventory after the holiday while copper prices remained low. Looking ahead to next week, although delivery is approaching, spot cargo has already shifted to premiums. Suppliers are expected to show weaker willingness to deliver cargo to warehouses for delivery, and imported copper arrivals have also not increased. Total supply is expected to be slightly lower than this week. On the demand side, demand is expected to remain at this week's high level. Therefore, inventory is expected to remain in a state where demand exceeds supply next week, with inventory fluctuating lower, and spot premiums are expected to continue rebounding. (The above information is based on market collection and the comprehensive assessment of the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)

On March 10, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China’s cumulative steel exports in January-February 2026 reached 15.591 million mt, down 8.1% YoY, with February steel exports at 7.837 million mt. China’s cumulative steel imports in January-February 2026 were 827,000 mt, down 21.7% YoY. China’s Steel Exports Declined YoY in January-February Against last year’s high base, China’s cumulative steel exports in January-February fell 8.1% YoY, but still remained at a relatively high level for the same period in previous years. The YoY decline in total exports in January-February was attributable, on the one hand, to policy impacts. At the end of 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced that the export licensing system would take effect on January 1, 2026. As it basically covered all steel export categories, policy uncertainty made some export traders more cautious in taking orders. On the other hand, the appreciation of the yuan weakened the price advantage of exports, which also affected order-taking. In February, despite fewer calendar days, the MoM figure still increased. The reason was that some steel mills engaged in compliant exports actively pursued export orders to ease pressure from domestic sales while traders stayed on the sidelines. Meanwhile, in the early stage of export license implementation, both customs and exporters needed to spend more time adapting to policy changes. As time passed, overall work efficiency improved, and port cargo pick-up also accelerated accordingly. China’s Steel Imports Remained at a Low Level in January-February On the import side, China’s cumulative steel imports in January-February were 827,000 mt, down 21.7% YoY; net steel exports reached 14.764 million mt, down 7.3% YoY. Short-Term Outlook for Steel Exports According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI stood at 51.2% in February 2026, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, remaining above 50 for two consecutive months. Asia, Europe, and the Americas all posted MoM increases and all stayed above the threshold, indicating signs of improving recovery in global manufacturing. However, affected by the long Chinese New Year holiday in China, the new export orders index of China’s manufacturing PMI was 45% in February, down 2.8 percentage points MoM. At the same time, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have surged recently, bringing uncertainty to the just-improving global economic recovery. According to monitoring data from the World Steel Association, global crude steel production totaled 147.3 million mt in January 2026, down 6.5% YoY, mainly dragged down by the sharp contraction in China’s production, which fell to 75.3 million mt in the single month, with a YoY decline as high as 13.9%. However, excluding the Chinese market, the rest of the world actually achieved about 3.6% growth against the trend in January, showing localized resilience amid divergence. The continued recovery of global crude steel capacity has brought some suppression to China’s steel exports. As of March 6, 2026, export offers for HRC (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $500/mt, $566/mt, and $460/mt, respectively, while China’s HRC export offer (FOB) was $472/mt. At present, China’s HRC export offer was respectively -$28/mt, -$94/mt, and +$12/mt versus those countries. Overall, China’s steel exports still had an absolute price advantage. Figure 1 - HRC Export Offers in Major Global Markets Source: SMM According to SMM’s latest steel mill export scheduling data, the planned HRC export volume for this month was 819,000 mt, down 125,000 mt from last month’s actual exports, with a MoM decline of 13.2%, mainly because major northern mills planned to adjust their export product mix. According to SMM steel export order-taking data, as the impact of export licenses gradually faded, export order-taking gradually recovered in mid-to-late January. Meanwhile, with the long Chinese New Year holiday approaching, most export traders brought sales forward, so overall export order-taking maintained relatively high MoM growth. However, due to shipping disruptions caused by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, earlier orders would face certain difficulties in shipment. Taking all factors into account, with the support of more calendar days in March, SMM expected a mild MoM rebound in overall export volume, though product divergence remained evident. Subsequent changes in total export volume would likely depend on judgment over the US-Iran conflict. If the conflict ends quickly, the overall impact will be relatively limited. Some domestic export traders have even taken on some semi-finished products orders lost from the Middle East due to the conflict, and Middle East demand has only been delayed rather than disappeared, with expectations of a demand surge after the conflict ends. But if the conflict turns into a protracted war, previously expected Middle East demand may face the risk of reassessment, while uncertainties such as ocean freight rates would also cause part of the demand to turn cautious. Figure 2 - SMM Steel Export Order Intake Source: SMM Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original article of this official account. For any reposting, whitelist, or cooperation needs, please contact us. Without permission, it may not be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to third parties, nor may any third party be authorized to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal liability for infringement, including but not limited to claims for breach of contract, recovery of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. Scan the Code to Get Information for Free

SMM, March 12: Today in Guangdong, spot premiums and discounts for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at 160 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt, for high-quality copper; 40 yuan/mt premium, up 20 yuan/mt, for standard-quality copper; and 20 yuan/mt discount, up 20 yuan/mt, for SX-EW copper. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 100,860 yuan/mt, down 475 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,740 yuan/mt, down 470 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Today, Guangdong inventory continued to decline, with the drop widening, mainly due to increased warehouse withdrawals. As inventory kept falling and copper prices moved lower, suppliers actively held prices firm, and the price of standard-quality copper rose 20 yuan/mt from yesterday. However, downstream enterprises were less active in restocking than yesterday, and suppliers reported greater difficulty in making shipments than yesterday, with overall trading sentiment weaker than yesterday. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.51, down 0.23 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.57, up 0.15 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, inventory continued to decline and copper prices moved lower, prompting suppliers to actively hold prices firm, but downstream procurement was weaker than yesterday, and overall trading was average.

This article explains the 2026 revision of Vietnam's Mineral Law, including adjustments to mineral classification, optimization of mining permit rules, and enhancements to mineral control. These changes may have a significant impact on mining enterprises, particularly those involved in metallic mining activities in Vietnam, possibly affecting areas such as business operations, policy and tax compliance, upstream mining, and open new opportunities in mineral recycling business.

SMM News, March 5: Data Brief: As of Thursday, March 12, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 0.57% WoW from last Thursday, ending the inventory buildup seen over the previous three consecutive weeks; total inventories increased 218,400 mt YoY from the same period last year, while regional performance remained differentiated. By region, copper cathode inventory in Shanghai continued to build up. Although consumption recovered somewhat, inventories still trended upward due to the impact of concentrated arrivals of imported cargoes and delivery factors; in Jiangsu, inventories declined slightly, supported by recovering downstream consumption; in Guangdong, consumption rebounded significantly and warehouse withdrawals increased, with inventories already reaching an inflection point and expected to continue declining going forward. Looking ahead, on the supply side, imported cargoes continued to arrive at port and domestic arrivals remained steady; on the demand side, downstream enterprises fully resumed production, and consumption recovered markedly. Based on the overall supply-demand pattern, supply is expected to remain normal next week while consumption steadily rebounds, and weekly copper cathode inventories are expected to destock somewhat.

Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt fluctuated rangebound around 430,000 yuan/mt. On the supply side, mainstream smelters slightly lowered ex-factory prices, while traders' spot-futures price spread remained stable: regular brands were at discounts of 2,000 yuan/mt to parity, and high-end brands at premiums of 5,000–8,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, cost pass-through downstream remained sluggish, with market participants mainly staying on the sidelines. Only sporadic rigid-demand restocking emerged, and transactions had yet to gain volume. Fundamentally, the arrival period for cobalt intermediate products remained unclear, and the structural tightness in raw materials was unchanged, leaving support at the bottom still in place. Looking ahead, as restocking demand is gradually released, refined cobalt prices are still expected to have upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold steady. On the supply side, miners' export progress was slow, holders temporarily held back offers, and spot cargo available for circulation was scarce. On the demand side, raw material shortages at smelters worsened. Although purchase willingness remained, both buyers and sellers stayed cautious due to unstable supply and unclear downstream orders, and the market continued to see "offers but no trades." Overall, export delays cast doubt on the timing of bulk arrivals, and the structural tightness in raw materials in China may worsen further; once downstream orders are finalized and procurement restarts, intermediate product prices are still expected to have upward momentum. Going forward, attention should be paid to export progress in the DRC and the pace of demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, spot cobalt sulphate prices held steady. On the supply side, supported by tight raw materials, most smelters kept offers firm in the 95,000–98,000 yuan/mt range; small smelters and traders under capital pressure had already completed cashing out from last week to early this week, and low-price offers in the market narrowed. On the demand side, uncertainty over downstream orders persisted, with most enterprises remaining on the sidelines. Post-holiday stockpiling willingness had yet to start, with only sporadic rigid-demand restocking and priority given to lower-priced cargoes. In the short term, the market remained in a period of social inventory digestion, with rangebound adjustments dominating; however, the raw material supply bottleneck in the DRC remained unresolved, domestic supply tightened periodically, and cost support still existed. After low-priced inventory is depleted, prices are expected to resume their rise.

In North China today, spot #1 copper cathode was quoted at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to premiums of 100 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average premium up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 100,625 yuan/mt, down 610 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The Premier Academic Event in the Energy Storage Field—the 9th Energy Storage Frontier Technology Conference is expected to open soon. The conference is scheduled to be held from March 31 to April 3, 2026, at the Beijing·Capital International Exhibition & Convention Center, and is hosted by the Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences; the China Energy Research Society; and the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance. This conference features nine major tracks: the Academician Forum, Advanced Energy Storage Materials, Energy Storage Design and System Integration, Grid-Forming ESS , Battery Cells, Hydrogen Energy, Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES), Short-Duration High-Frequency Energy Storage, and Safety and Standards . Led by nine academicians, with more than 50 experts from universities and research institutes and more than 70 representatives from leading enterprises gathering together, the conference will jointly explore frontier technologies, development trends, and future challenges in the ESS sector. Established in 2017, the Energy Storage Frontier Technology Conference is an important academic brand event actively developed by the Energy Storage International Summit and Exhibition (ESIE) . The conference aims to provide a platform for experts and scholars in the ESS sector to share research achievements and discuss frontier technologies. By showcasing the latest advances in energy storage technologies, it stimulates innovative thinking and drives technological breakthroughs; grounded in the integration of academic research and industry needs, it offers new ideas for the innovative development of the energy storage industry. Conference Highlights Led by Academicians, with a Strong Lineup Nine academicians will take the lead, with more than 50 experts from universities and research institutes and more than 70 representatives from leading enterprises gathering together to discuss frontier research achievements and share in-depth industry insights. Focused on the Frontier, Comprehensive Coverage Covering hot topic areas such as advanced energy storage materials, battery cells, hydrogen energy, long duration energy storage (LDES), short-duration high-frequency energy storage, grid-forming ESS, energy storage design and system integration, and safety and standards, it provides a comprehensive interpretation of the current development status and future trends of each technology pathway. Industry–Education Integration, Jointly Seeking Development Building a high-level platform for industry–academia–research exchange and cooperation, promoting the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and pooling efforts to drive the high-quality development of the energy storage industry. Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance Student Registration Channel for Attendance 1、 The main forum and all technical tracks of the 9th Energy Storage Frontier Technology Conference are free of charge for enrolled students. The Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance has set up a dedicated student registration channel; attendance is permitted after approval by the organizers. 2、 Registration for the General Public Please contact the organizer Zhao Han 18210188771 Visitor Registration Channel Exhibition Dates: April 1–3, 2026 Exhibition Venue: Beijing·Capital International Exhibition & Convention Center How to Visit: Scan the QR code above to make a free reservation to visit the exhibition The Wind Vane for the Development of China’s Energy Storage Industry The 14th Energy Storage International Summit and Exhibition ESIE 2026 Exhibition Dates: April 1, 2026–April 3, 2026 Summit Dates: March 31, 2026–April 3, 2026 Venue: Beijing·Capital International Exhibition & Convention Center