Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt fluctuated rangebound around 430,000 yuan/mt. On the supply side, mainstream smelters slightly lowered ex-factory prices, while traders' spot-futures price spread remained stable: regular brands were at discounts of 2,000 yuan/mt to parity, and high-end brands at premiums of 5,000–8,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, cost pass-through downstream remained sluggish, with market participants mainly staying on the sidelines. Only sporadic rigid-demand restocking emerged, and transactions had yet to gain volume. Fundamentally, the arrival period for cobalt intermediate products remained unclear, and the structural tightness in raw materials was unchanged, leaving support at the bottom still in place. Looking ahead, as restocking demand is gradually released, refined cobalt prices are still expected to have upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold steady. On the supply side, miners' export progress was slow, holders temporarily held back offers, and spot cargo available for circulation was scarce. On the demand side, raw material shortages at smelters worsened. Although purchase willingness remained, both buyers and sellers stayed cautious due to unstable supply and unclear downstream orders, and the market continued to see "offers but no trades." Overall, export delays cast doubt on the timing of bulk arrivals, and the structural tightness in raw materials in China may worsen further; once downstream orders are finalized and procurement restarts, intermediate product prices are still expected to have upward momentum. Going forward, attention should be paid to export progress in the DRC and the pace of demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, spot cobalt sulphate prices held steady. On the supply side, supported by tight raw materials, most smelters kept offers firm in the 95,000–98,000 yuan/mt range; small smelters and traders under capital pressure had already completed cashing out from last week to early this week, and low-price offers in the market narrowed. On the demand side, uncertainty over downstream orders persisted, with most enterprises remaining on the sidelines. Post-holiday stockpiling willingness had yet to start, with only sporadic rigid-demand restocking and priority given to lower-priced cargoes. In the short term, the market remained in a period of social inventory digestion, with rangebound adjustments dominating; however, the raw material supply bottleneck in the DRC remained unresolved, domestic supply tightened periodically, and cost support still existed. After low-priced inventory is depleted, prices are expected to resume their rise.

This week, the cobalt chloride market atmosphere was even more sluggish WoW, and the price stalemate continued. Although top-tier enterprises remained firm in their willingness to hold prices firm, with mainstream quotations still staying above 117,000 yuan/mt and the highest quotations reaching 120,000 yuan/mt, downstream procurement sentiment did not improve WoW and remained relatively cautious. Constrained by weak end-use demand and the relatively ample raw material inventory at material plants, market inquiries decreased noticeably, and actual transactions were mainly sporadic restocking, with the transaction center at 115,000 yuan/mt. Low-priced sales by some small traders were insufficient to move the broader market. Overall, market activity declined, and buyers and sellers fell into a game of tug-of-war. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, lacking the momentum to break the stalemate. SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711

Electra Battery Materials (NASDAQ, TSXV: ELBM) has signed a fresh deal with LG Energy Solution that would see the company supply battery-grade cobalt to the South Korean firm through at least 2029. The parties on Tuesday signed a new term sheet outlining Electra’s commitment to supplying 60% of the cobalt sulfates produced at its Ontario refinery, which is currently under construction. The supply agreement is valid through 2029, plus a three-year extension option. This agreement follows an initial three-year agreement signed in 2022 and the subsequent five-year extension announced in July 2023, reflecting Electra’s updated production timelines under the contract.

This week, prices for some Grade-B battery cells in the second-life battery market rose. Cost side, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated more sharply this week and showed an overall upward trend, directly pushing up battery cell production costs; nickel sulphate prices edged up, while cobalt sulphate prices remained stable, providing mild support on the cost side and lifting overall cost pressure somewhat. Supply side, the market was clearly boosted by energy storage demand, enterprises showed relatively strong willingness to sell, and circulating supply was steadily released; coupled with rising lithium carbonate prices, enterprises' expectations for higher costs strengthened, and overall pricing sentiment remained firm to slightly stronger. Demand side, demand for second-life Grade-B battery cells recovered significantly, mainly driven by the energy storage market, as downstream energy storage projects commenced and supporting demand continued to be released, noticeably boosting procurement enthusiasm.

As of now, Indonesia’s MHP nickel FOB price was $15,379/mt Ni, and Indonesia’s MHP cobalt FOB price was $49,879/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 86.5-87, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 91. Indonesia’s high-grade nickel matte FOB price was $15,736/mt Ni.

Hyundai Motor Group announced that it has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Zhejiang Huayou Recycling Technology, a subsidiary of China’s Huayou Cobalt, to jointly build an electric vehicle (EV) battery circular economy in Indonesia. Under the agreement, the two parties plan to collect battery scrap generated during production at HLI Green Power, the joint battery cell plant established by Hyundai Motor Group and LG Energy Solution in Indonesia. The scrap will be pre-treated at Huayou Recycling’s local facilities and crushed into “black mass,” a powder containing various metals, from which key minerals can later be extracted and reused in battery manufacturing.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, costs edged down slightly, coke producers' profits improved somewhat, and the overall operating rate remained moderate. However, downstream purchasing sentiment was average, the shipment pace of some coke producers slowed down, and inventory pressure persisted to some extent. On the demand side, steel mills' profitability did not improve significantly, and the procurement pace of some steel mills slowed down, with purchase as needed remaining the main approach for coke. Overall, the coke market may remain temporarily stable next week, and expectations for price cuts have temporarily dissipated.

Affected by the supply-demand relationship, MHP and high-grade nickel matte nickel prices rose this week

This week, ferrous metals rebounded from the bottom. At the start of the week, coking coal and coke led the futures higher, mainly driven by rising crude oil prices in the overseas market, which pushed the energy and chemicals sector stronger accordingly; mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran signaled a more relaxed stance toward war, easing geopolitical tensions, while coal prices fell in tandem, weakening the cost-side logic, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs; in the latter half of the week, worsening short-term liquidity issues in BHP's iron ore port inventory triggered stronger iron ore prices in the overseas market, while the Middle East situation remained volatile, reinforcing cost support and pushing ferrous metals higher again. In the spot market, supported by futures, end-user and arbitrage purchase sentiment both improved WoW this week......

This week, the Co3O4 market maintained a stable trend, with overall activity remaining weak. Quotes from top-tier enterprises were still firm at around 370,000 yuan/mt, supported strongly on the cost side by tight inventory of cobalt intermediate products. However, demand was even more mediocre WoW, as the procurement pace of downstream LCO material plants slowed down further, with most purchases limited to small-scale restocking based on orders on hand, leading to slight declines in both market inquiries and transaction activity. Amid the ongoing tug-of-war between firm sellers and cautious buyers, the market was still expected to remain stable in the short term, with limited room for price fluctuations.