ArcelorMittal (AM) — 2025 Annual Report Summary ArcelorMittal, the world's second-largest steel producer, released its 2025 Annual Report in March 2026. During the year, the Group's steelmaking operations experienced a broad-based slowdown: crude steel output in Europe contracted sharply by 6.6% year-on-year, while volumes in India and Brazil also declined. Only North America recorded output growth, driven by the consolidation of an additional steelworks. These dynamics reflect softening apparent steel consumption (ASC) globally, compounded by intensifying competitive pressures. Nonetheless, the Mining segment delivered an outstanding performance — iron ore shipments from Liberia surged 37.5%, providing a meaningful offset to the headwinds in the steelmaking divisions. I. 2025 Key Production, Shipment & Financial Overview In 2025, ArcelorMittal demonstrated strong operational resilience against the backdrop of subdued global steel demand and complex trade barriers. Portfolio optimisation — notably the full consolidation of the Calvert flat-rolled finishing facility — and robust growth in the iron ore business were the key highlights of the year. Despite a marginal decline in crude steel production and shipments, net profit expanded materially, primarily driven by non-recurring items — in particular, a US$1.9 billion accounting gain arising from the acquisition of the remaining 50% equity interest in AMNS Calvert. The increase in net debt was principally attributable to the full consolidation of Calvert and other M&A activities. II. Segment Distribution & Operational Performance In 2025, ArcelorMittal's global operational footprint underwent significant structural reconfiguration, most notably through the full acquisition of the North American Calvert flat-rolling facility and the divestiture of non-core assets in Bosnia-Herzegovina, further optimising the Group's production and shipment mix. The following presents a detailed comparison of key segment production and shipment data for 2025 versus the prior year: North America The segment recorded growth in both output and shipments in 2025, primarily benefiting from the full consolidation of the AMNS Calvert facility in the second half of the year, and the recovery of Mexican production following the 2024 labour strike. Crude Steel Production: 7.8 Mt (2024: 7.5 Mt), up 2.9% YoY Steel Shipments: 10.3 Mt (2024: 10.1 Mt), up 2.2% YoY Key Development: The 1.5 Mtpa Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) at the Calvert facility was commissioned in June 2025, enhancing the supply capability of high value-added flat products in the region. 2026 Volume Outlook: Both production and shipments are expected to increase in line with broader regional trends. Growth Driver: The 1.5 Mtpa EAF at Calvert, consolidated in H2 2025, is currently in capacity ramp-up phase and will contribute incremental volumes in 2026. Brazil Despite margin pressure, the Brazil segment maintained highly stable production and shipment volumes, continuing to serve as a key profitability pillar for the Group. Crude Steel Production: 14.3 Mt (2024: 14.5 Mt), down 1.3% YoY Steel Shipments: 13.9 Mt (2024: 14.1 Mt), down 0.9% YoY Key Development: The Barra Mansa long products mill expansion was commissioned in H2 2025, adding 0.4 Mtpa of high value-added long steel capacity. 2026 Volume Outlook: Steel shipments are projected to reach 15.4 Mt in 2026, significantly above the 13.95 Mt recorded in 2025. Growth Driver: Despite demand headwinds in 2025 caused by elevated interest rates and a surge in Chinese imports, the Group holds an optimistic outlook for 2026 growth. Europe Affected by soft market demand and a planned major reline of Blast Furnace No. 4 at Dunkirk, European crude steel output contracted. However, the smaller decline in shipments indicates relatively resilient market penetration. Crude Steel Production: 29.2 Mt (2024: 31.2 Mt), down 6.6% YoY Steel Shipments: 28.4 Mt (2024: 28.7 Mt), down 0.9% YoY Key Development: The divestiture of the Zenica long products integrated steelworks in Bosnia-Herzegovina was completed in October, reflecting the Group's strategic transition toward lower-carbon assets. 2026 Volume Outlook: Shipments are expected to recover and grow. Growth Driver: As the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the revised Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) regime progressively take effect in 2026, the Group anticipates European domestic steelmakers recapturing market share from import competition. India & Other Joint Ventures Focus on the strategic joint venture AMNS India (60% equity interest): Crude Steel Production: 7.2 Mt (2024: 7.5 Mt), down 4.5% YoY, impacted by market volatility in H1 and unplanned maintenance outages Steel Shipments: 7.9 Mt (2024: 7.9 Mt), shipments remained resilient Key Development: The Hazira integrated steelworks in India is being expanded to 15 Mtpa capacity. The Group has also announced a long-term greenfield project in Andhra Pradesh with an 8.2 Mtpa capacity target, with the objective of increasing hot-rolled coil (HRC) capacity to 15 Mtpa by H2 2026, providing incremental production and shipment uplift. Crude Steel Production (Other Subsidiaries): 4.3 Mt (2024: 4.6 Mt), down 6.52% YoY Mining The Mining segment was the Group's strongest growth engine in 2025, driven by the successful ramp-up of the Phase II expansion project in Liberia. Own Iron Ore Production (Mining segment only): 35.3 Mt (2024: 27.9 Mt), up 26.5% YoY Iron Ore Shipments: 36.3 Mt (2024: 26.4 Mt), up 37.5% YoY Key Development: Liberia achieved a record annual shipment of 10 Mt and is progressing steadily toward a 20 Mtpa production target. 2026 Mining Segment Outlook: Liberia (AML): Volume Target: 20 Mtpa shipment target. The Group specifically projects that by end-2026, as the Phase II expansion and the beneficiation plant continue to ramp up, annualised shipments will exceed 18 Mtpa (vs. 10 Mt in 2025). Key Progress: A blended production model combining sinter fines and concentrates from Phase II will support a significant increase in production and shipment volumes, with rail haulage capacity being expanded toward a 30 Mtpa annual throughput target. Canada (AMMC): Trend: Stable production maintained. The conversion of the high-grade iron ore pellet plant for Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) production is expected to be completed in Q2 2026. 2026 Production & Shipment Outlook Summary The 2025 production and shipment profile signals ArcelorMittal's strategic pivot toward quality over pure volume. Despite marginal fluctuations in crude steel output in Europe and Brazil, the growth from high value-added assets in North America and low-cost iron ore operations in Liberia is structurally rebuilding the Group's cost and margin base. The Group projects global apparent steel consumption (ASC) ex-China to grow by 2% in 2026. Against this macro backdrop, the Group forecasts an increase in steel production and shipments across all regions in 2026 compared to 2025, underpinned by improvements in operational efficiency and the positive impact of trade protection measures. III. Production Infrastructure & Process Technology Profile ArcelorMittal operates a highly diversified asset portfolio spanning the full upstream-to-downstream value chain — from iron ore mining to downstream finishing and processing. As of end-2025, the Group's production process structure is as follows: Process Mix: Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) output accounts for 74% (41.2 Mt); Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) accounts for 26% (14.4 Mt). Facility Scale: The Group currently operates 30 Blast Furnaces (BF) and 27 Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF) . Capacity Distribution: Europe remains the largest production base, with an annual crude steel capacity of 39.5 Mt (53% of total), followed by Brazil (16.4 Mt) and North America (12.5 Mt). IV. Raw Material Self-Sufficiency & Supply Chain Integration The Group maintains a high degree of vertical integration upstream and downstream to hedge against market volatility — a core pillar of its industrial competitive advantage: Iron Ore Supply: Own iron ore production grew 15.1% YoY to 48.8 Mt in 2025. Canada (AMMC) contributed 25.6 Mt, while Liberia (AML) surged to 9.7 Mt. Self-Sufficiency Rates: In 2025, the Group achieved an iron ore self-sufficiency rate of 72% , a coking coal self-sufficiency rate of 91% , and a scrap steel and Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) self-sufficiency rate of 55% . Logistics Capacity: The Group operates 18 deep-water port facilities and associated rail infrastructure, handling over 51 Mt of freight annually. V. Key Asset Restructuring & Industrial Portfolio Realignment 2025 was a year of deep portfolio optimisation for the Group — divesting weaker assets and concentrating resources in high-growth, high value-added operations. Full Consolidation of Calvert (USA): In June 2025, the Group completed the acquisition of the remaining 50% equity interest in AMNS Calvert (previously a joint venture with Nippon Steel Corporation) at a nominal consideration. The facility is the most advanced flat-rolled steel finishing complex in North America. The newly constructed 1.5 Mtpa EAF produced its first slab in June 2025. Asset Divestitures & Operational Rationalisation: Bosnia-Herzegovina: Completed the sale of the Zenica integrated steelworks and the Prijedor iron ore mine. South Africa: Rationalisation of the long products business and the idling of the Newcastle steelworks were completed by end of January 2026. India Expansion: AMNS India remains a core growth engine. The Hazira integrated steelworks is on track to expand capacity to 15 Mtpa by H2 2026. VI. Major Capital Project Progress (Capex Allocation) ArcelorMittal is currently in a dual capital expenditure cycle: EAF transition and upstream iron ore capacity expansion . Total capital expenditure in 2025 amounted to US$4.34 billion . VII. Decarbonisation Pathway & Industrial Technology Upgrade ArcelorMittal is at a critical juncture in its transition from conventional blast furnace-based integrated steelmaking toward low-carbon process routes: EAF Capacity Expansion: By end-2026, the Group expects to add 3.4 Mtpa of EAF capacity, spanning Gijón and Sestao in Spain, and Calvert in the USA. Key Technology Projects: The 2.0 Mtpa EAF project at Dunkirk, France (€1.3 billion investment) is planned for commissioning in 2029 and is expected to generate carbon emissions at approximately one-third of the level of a conventional blast furnace. Energy Transition: By end-2025, the Group had commissioned 1.6 GW of renewable energy equity capacity, with a further 1.2 GW under construction, primarily in India and South America, with the objective of supplying low-cost clean electricity to steelmaking operations. Carbon Footprint: Absolute carbon emissions declined 3.1% YoY in 2025, representing a cumulative reduction of 47% from the 2018 baseline. It is noteworthy that, given the limited commercial-scale deployment of low-carbon technologies (green hydrogen, Carbon Capture and Storage), the Group's emissions reductions are currently achieved primarily through portfolio restructuring and EAF electrification . VIII. Additional Key Information Portfolio Optimisation: Full Acquisition of Calvert: By acquiring NSC's 50% equity stake, ArcelorMittal has gained full operational control of North America's most advanced flat-rolled steel finishing complex. Exit from Non-Core Assets: The divestiture of the high-carbon-intensity integrated steelworks at Zenica, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and associated iron ore mines reflects a "decarbonise first, then grow" portfolio strategy. Operational Risks: Geopolitical Risk: The Kryvyi Rih steelworks in Ukraine (AMKR) is currently operating at only 35% of rated capacity , facing significant logistics and supply chain disruption. Trade Barriers: US Section 232 tariffs were raised to 50% in 2025, increasing the cost burden on cross-regional material flows. 2026 Outlook: Global apparent steel consumption (ASC) ex-China is projected to grow 2% . The Group's capital expenditure plan for 2026 is budgeted in the range of US$4.5–5.0 billion , with continued focus on the Liberia iron ore expansion and the electrification of process technology in Europe. Summary: 2025 was a year of "deepening asset quality" for ArcelorMittal. By converting its core North American joint venture Calvert into a wholly-owned subsidiary, and achieving successful delivery milestones at the Liberia iron ore mine and India's green energy projects, the Group further consolidated its vertically integrated competitive advantages. For investors, the sustainability of free cash flow generation and the recovery of market share under the EU CBAM framework remain the key monitoring indicators over the next one to two years.

[SMM Steel] South Korea’s Korea Trade Commission initiated an anti-dumping investigation into specialty steel bar and rod imports from China following complaints from local producers SeAH Besteel and SeAH Changwon Special Steel. The investigation covers imports from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025, and will assess whether low-priced Chinese imports caused injury to the domestic industry. Authorities may impose provisional AD duties if preliminary findings confirm dumping and material injury.

India’s Ministry of Steel has extended the mandatory BIS certification exemption for stainless steel flat products, including semi-finished and final products, until October 26, 2026. This extension, covering IS 14650 standards, aims to bridge a domestic supply deficit caused by energy shortages and geopolitical tensions. Market observers noted that the relaxed origin tracking effectively facilitates direct Chinese imports, bypassing previous indirect routes. Leveraging strong price advantages, Chinese suppliers are rapidly reclaiming market share in grades like 304 and 316, placing significant competitive pressure on other exporters, particularly Chinese Taiwan mills.

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

According to Eunews, the EU ferrosilicon market—crucial for stainless steel production—is facing a severe crisis driven by soaring energy costs rather than Chinese competition. Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič clarified that recent safeguard investigations revealed no increase in Chinese imports, debunking claims of unfair trade practices. Instead, the primary threat to EU producers is unsustainable energy expenses. This situation, initially assessed in January, is now expected to worsen significantly. The recent outbreak of war in Iran and the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf are triggering massive energy price spikes, putting immense additional pressure on European ferrosilicon operations and the broader stainless steel supply chain.

According to EUROMETAL reports, the European automotive components sector faces mounting pressure from Chinese competition, rising imports, and stagnant growth. At the EUROMETAL Steel Day, Autoliv's Cosmin Bakai noted global light vehicle production will grow ~1.3% by 2030, but Europe remains weak. While Chinese automakers plan facilities in Europe, initial capacities (50,000-100,000 units) won't immediately drive major local steel demand. Crucially, component trade is outpacing vehicle trade; Chinese component imports to the EU doubled over three years to $8 billion. Meanwhile, $11 billion in EU component exports to the US face tariff pressures. Consequently, the short-to-medium-term outlook for European automotive steel demand remains bleak.

[SMM Steel] Mexico's Ministry of Economy (SE) has initiated an administrative review of anti-dumping (AD) duties on prestressed steel imports from China, Spain, and Portugal. Current duties, including US$1.02/kg for Chinese imports, remain in effect to protect domestic production from potential injury.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the world’s top cobalt supplier (over 70% of global 2024 supply), imposed 2025 export bans/quotas, roiling cobalt prices. With large-scale exports unresumed, the U.S. launched "Project Vault" to secure critical minerals, adding DRC supply uncertainties and heightening geopolitical risks for Chinese cobalt procurement.

As China and the US implemented a series of tariff adjustment measures, US importers significantly increased their import orders from China this week. Data from multiple shipping companies and industry trackers showed that China's cargo volume to the US has rebounded significantly. Container bookings surged by 277% On Wednesday, Eastern Time, Vizion, a container tracking data software provider, stated that after China and the US reached a trade "truce," container shipping bookings from China to the US soared by nearly 300%. Ben Tracy, the company's Vice President of Strategic Business Development, revealed that in the seven days leading up to Wednesday, the average number of container shipping bookings from China to the US surged by 277%, reaching 21,530 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) , compared to an average of 5,709 TEUs in the seven days leading up to last Monday (May 5). On April 2, Trump announced plans to impose hefty tariffs on Chinese-made goods, leading to a sharp decline in container bookings by US importers. However, after the US and China reached a tariff agreement on Monday, US importers' bookings surged again. According to the joint statement issued by China and the US on April 2, within the next 90 days, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. Tracy said, "Now that there's this temporary truce, we're definitely starting to see a rebound in bookings." Shipping bookings surge Earlier that day, German container shipping company Hapag-Lloyd stated that in the first three days of this week, the company's bookings on the US-China route increased by 50% MoM. Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said, "I expect a surge in trade volume between China and the US, which is what we've already seen in the past few days." On Tuesday, Eastern Time, Ryan Petersen, the founder and CEO of freight forwarding company Flexport, posted on his X account, "Since the first day of the trade agreement, our ocean freight bookings from China to the US have increased by 35%. A significant backlog is imminent, and vessels (space) will soon be sold out." Paul Brashier, Vice President of Global Supply Chain at logistics company ITS Logistics, said, "My clients have pre-loaded thousands of containers in China, ready for shipment." He expects a further surge in container shipping volumes in the next four to six weeks.

At 20:30 Beijing time, the US will release its April CPI data. Although the US-China trade truce (both sides agreed to cut tariffs by 115% within the next 90 days) has completely reshaped the macro landscape, rendering the before-and-after comparison of CPI data meaningless, the market may still react reflexively to the upcoming CPI data—even if it is just a brief fluctuation, followed by the "Trump roar" (Trump often posts comments after key data releases). Wall Street expects: April monthly overall CPI to record 0.3%, higher than the previous month's -0.1%; annual overall CPI to record 2.4%, unchanged from March. April core CPI monthly rate to record 0.3%, higher than March's 0.1%. Notably, the forecast range for the core CPI monthly rate is unusually wide, with a high of 0.6 and a low of 0.0%. April core CPI annual rate to record 2.4%, also unchanged from March. Most analysts believe that this CPI report will for the first time reflect the impact of last month's tariff measures , but since a large number of imported goods had already entered the US market before the new tariffs took effect, the actual impact may be limited. Bloomberg economist Anna Wong's team noted in a Monday report: " CPI categories heavily reliant on Chinese imports, such as toys, footwear, and clothing, may experience mild inflation. Retailers face pressure from a sharp drop in demand when passing on costs, although they will still try. If this effect dominates, the net impact of tariffs on inflation will be lower than widely expected." Economists are assessing the impact of the recent temporary reciprocal tariff reduction agreement reached between the US and China. Bloomberg Economics believes that the agreement may lead retailers to rush to restock inventory, causing short-term shortages of goods and thereby driving up consumer prices. Goods prices have been front-loaded Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, believes that the tariffs announced on April 2 will have a " minimal impact " on the CPI report, as goods in transit have been exempted, and businesses and consumers had already made early purchases at the beginning of the year to avoid tariffs. He added: "The US Fed and global investors will need more time to accurately assess the substantive impact of trade uncertainty on inflation." In terms of food, economists from Morgan Stanley and Pantheon Macroeconomics pointed out that egg prices have fallen significantly, a major driver of CPI food inflation in the first three months of the year, as the reduction in avian influenza cases has eased supply pressures. Signs of weak service consumption Economists and policymakers are closely monitoring service categories that reflect changes in discretionary spending. Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst, economists at Citigroup, noted that travel-related prices, such as airfares and car rentals, have fallen consecutively, with weak March data and a further pullback in April confirming the trend of cooling travel demand. Additionally, the housing category (including rent), which has the largest weight in the CPI, is expected to slow down after a strong increase in March. Pantheon Macroeconomics economists Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen emphasized: " Despite tariff disruptions, the gradual pullback in service inflation will still create conditions for the US Fed to resume easing policies in the second half of the year." Four Major Trends Goldman Sachs forecasts in its report that the overall CPI will rise 0.31% MoM, reflecting increases in food and energy prices (energy up 0.4% MoM, food up 0.3% MoM). The bank highlights four major trends expected in this month's report: Auto prices. Similar to Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs expects used car prices to fall 0.5% MoM in April, reflecting a decline in used car auction prices. The bank also expects new car prices to rise 0.1% MoM, reflecting a reduction in dealer sales promotions in April, possibly related to anticipated tariffs. Auto insurance costs. Goldman Sachs expects auto insurance prices to surge 0.7% MoM in April, reflecting an increase in premiums. Higher auto prices, repair costs, and medical and litigation costs have all put upward pressure on insurers to raise prices, but there is a significant lag in passing these premium increases on to consumers, partly because insurers must negotiate price hikes with state regulators. Currently, the gap between insurance premiums and costs has largely closed. Therefore, it is expected that the increase in the CPI's auto insurance cost category this year will sustainably return to pre-pandemic levels. Tariffs. This is the most significant point: Goldman Sachs expects tariffs to exert a mild upward pressure on categories particularly vulnerable to their impact, contributing +0.06 percentage points to the monthly core inflation rate. The bank expects that prices for clothing (+0.8%), furniture (+0.3%), education (+0.4%), and communications (+0.3%) may rise in April due to tariffs, and notes that there may also be some indirect price increases in the report as consumers purchase other goods (such as new cars and alcoholic beverages) in advance. Health insurance. The April CPI report will incorporate the semi-annual update of raw data for the health insurance component. Goldman Sachs expects that this update will lead to negative health insurance inflation over the next six months (with an expected monthly rate of -0.5% in April). The PCE index uses different raw data to measure health insurance, so this update will not affect PCE inflation. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs believes that tariffs will continue to hinder the progress of inflation returning to 2% unless investors see retailers, who previously stockpiled inventory in response to the US-China trade conflict, selling off their stockpiles. It is worth noting that they do not anticipate a 90-day truce agreement between the US and China. Goldman Sachs also expects that the monthly core CPI rate will be around 0.35% in the coming months. This forecast also reflects accelerated increases in most core goods categories, but will have limited impact on core services inflation, at least in the short term. In addition to the impact of tariffs, the bank expects that underlying trend inflation will decline further this year due to smaller contributions from automobiles, housing rentals, and the labour market. Goldman Sachs expects that by December 2025, the annual core CPI inflation rate will be +3.5%, and the annual core PCE rate will be +3.6%. Gold Technical Analysis Fxstreet analyst Dhwani Mehta stated that if CPI data unexpectedly rises, it will further strengthen market expectations for a renewed hawkish stance from the US Fed, thereby boosting the US dollar's gains and potentially exacerbating a new round of declines in gold. On the other hand, if US CPI growth unexpectedly slows, it may reignite market expectations for more than two interest rate cuts by the US Fed this year, providing support for gold. Technically, gold's daily closing price on Monday fell below the 21-day SMA, which was then at $3,313, opening up space for further declines. The 14-day RSI also closed below the midline for the first time since early April, turning bearish. The current RSI is hovering around the midline at 49, with bulls attempting to regain control. The focus now turns to tonight, and it remains to be seen whether higher-than-expected US CPI data will trigger a new round of declines in gold prices, pushing them towards the 50-day SMA at $3,145. Below, focus on the key support levels at the round number of $3,100 and the low of $3,072 on April 10. If the US CPI data unexpectedly weakens, gold prices may regain the 21-day SMA, which is currently at $3,311 and has shifted from support to resistance. If gold prices can stabilize above this level, they are expected to test the resistance of the downtrend line at $3,430 , which also serves as a phased resistance level. A sustained break above this level would open the door for gold prices to rise further towards the all-time high at $3,500 .