SMM, March 16: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract opened higher and extended gains today, while market transactions were relatively sluggish. Futures later fell, and as buying sentiment strengthened and price acceptance improved, transaction prices in the spot market moved higher. Today’s mainstream quotations and transaction prices were mainly concentrated between a discount of 10 yuan/mt and the average price. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.07, down 0.26 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.66, up 0.11 WoW. Today, aluminum prices continued to edge lower from last Friday, and with inventory remaining high, traders in the central China market showed limited bullish sentiment. Overall purchase volumes recovered somewhat from the previous two trading days. As futures prices declined, market premiums showed a continued upward trend. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were mainly concentrated between a discount of 10 yuan to the central China price and a premium of 20 yuan to the central China price, and moved higher throughout the session. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.58, down 0.09 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.36, up 0.01 WoW. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 18,500 mt WoW today, with all three regions showing inventory buildup. In the short term, following the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Geopolitical Premiums Persist, Aluminum Prices Remained Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and was expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China, meanwhile, was in a phase of high inventory plus weak spot fundamentals, with upward momentum clearly weaker than outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to remain fluctuating at highs in the short term.

In early March 2026, Qatalum—the 648,000-tonne-per-year primary aluminum smelter in Qatar, a 50/50 joint venture between Norsk Hydro and Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company initiated a controlled shutdown of production. The decision, effective from March 3, followed a warning from gas supplier QatarEnergy that natural gas deliveries would be fully suspended due to disruptions linked to the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, including attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Bulls Lost Momentum at High Levels, Aluminum Alloy Futures Prices Should Watch Lower Support] Last Friday, quotations in the secondary aluminum alloy market were mainly stable. Before noon, fluctuations in futures narrowed, enterprises' willingness to adjust prices weakened significantly, and most producers chose to hold prices steady and wait on the sidelines. In the afternoon, as futures fluctuated downward, some producers began to lower quotations by 100 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream players still mainly made just-in-time procurement, but amid the pullback in aluminum prices and the approach of the weekend, some enterprises showed slightly stronger purchasing interest, and market transactions improved somewhat from the previous day.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has opened its first gold refining facility, marking a significant step in the country’s effort to capture greater value from its vast mineral wealth.

Ouyang Minggao pointed out that large-scale mass production of all-solid-state batteries will still require 3–5 years, with test vehicles expected to appear by the end of 2026. Sulphide electrolyte has fallen from 20 million/mt to the million-level range. However, he stressed that the technical difficulty is extremely high and advised consumers that they “need not wait,” as LFP batteries remain the “ballast stone” at present.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Module Prices Have Softened Somewhat, While Polysilicon Prices Remain Temporarily Stable] Recently, transaction prices for modules in China have softened somewhat. As demand outside China declines and domestic projects are at the point of being about to start, module enterprises have shown differing attitudes in their quotations. Some enterprises have begun offering concessions in advance to take orders, and distributors have also recently started shipments at low prices, thereby leading to a decline in the market transaction price center. At present, quoted prices for distributed Topcon183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are 0.752 Yuan/W, 0.767 Yuan/W, and 0.77 Yuan/W, respectively, while quoted prices for centralized Topcon182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are 0.727 Yuan/W and 0747 Yuan/W, respectively.

Overall, supply in China’s petroleum coke market continued to tighten, while downstream demand remained generally stable with support, and supply and demand fundamentals provided two-way support to the market. Coupled with recent fluctuations in crude oil prices and intensified cost-side bargaining, SMM expected that in the short term, the petroleum coke market would mainly remain in consolidation, with prices of different categories continuing to diverge.

[SMM Analysis: February Operating Rate of Primary Aluminum Billets Hit a Nearly Four-Year Low, Expected to Recover to Peak-Season Levels Seen in the Same Period in Previous Years in March] According to SMM statistics, the operating rate of aluminum billets in February fell sharply by 9.2 percentage points MoM to 41.4%, down 7.7 percentage points YoY. After aluminum prices surged to a record high at the end of January, they saw a sharp correction ....

In January-February, raw coal production of industrial enterprises above designated size (hereinafter referred to as industrial enterprises above designated size) remained stable, crude oil production turned from decline to growth, natural gas production maintained steady growth, and the growth rate of power generation accelerated. I. Production of Raw Coal, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas and Related Information The decline in raw coal production narrowed. In January-February, raw coal production of industrial enterprises above designated size was 760 million mt, down 0.3% YoY, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from December 2025; daily average production was 12.93 million mt. Crude oil production turned from decline to growth. In January-February, crude oil production of industrial enterprises above designated size was 35.73 million mt, up 1.9% YoY, compared with a decline of 0.6% in December 2025; daily average production was 606,000 mt. Crude oil processing maintained growth. In January-February, crude oil processed by industrial enterprises above designated size totaled 122.63 million mt, up 2.9% YoY; daily average processing was 2.079 million mt. Natural gas production maintained steady growth. In January-February, natural gas production of industrial enterprises above designated size was 44.6 billion m³, up 2.9% YoY; daily average production was 760 million m³. II. Power Generation The growth rate of power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size accelerated. In January-February, power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1,571.8 billion kWh, up 4.1% YoY, with the growth rate 4 percentage points faster than in December 2025; daily average power generation was 26.64 billion kWh. By type, in January-February, thermal power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from decline to growth, hydropower growth accelerated, while the growth rates of nuclear power, wind power, and solar power generation slowed. Specifically, thermal power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was up 3.3% YoY, compared with a decline of 3.2% in December 2025; hydropower was up 6.8%, with the growth rate accelerating by 2.7 percentage points; nuclear power was up 0.8%, with the growth rate slowing by 2.3 percentage points; wind power was up 5.3%, with the growth rate slowing by 3.6 percentage points; solar power generation was up 9.9%, with the growth rate slowing by 8.3 percentage points.