On July 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 10.32 million mt of steel in June 2026, down 21,000 mt MoM or 0.2% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to June reached 54.874 million mt, down 5.6% YoY. In June 2026, China imported 441,000 mt of steel, down 10,000 mt MoM or 2.2% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to June were 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY. Table 1: Overview of Steel Imports and Exports, January-June Source: SMM Steel Exports Remained High in June According to SMM's June export production schedule survey, planned HRC export volume for the month stood at 1.05 million mt, slightly lower than actual exports in May, with a relatively limited decline. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that steel export orders remained high in mid-April, laying the foundation for high steel exports in May-June. Table 2: China’s Total Steel Exports Source: SMM Steel Imports Stayed Low in June On the import side, steel imports in June were 441,000 mt, down MoM. January-June cumulative imports were 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY. Net steel exports reached 52.178 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global Manufacturing Declined MoM; Domestic New Export Orders Recovered Marginally According to J.P. Morgan global PMI data, the global manufacturing PMI stood at 52.2 in June 2026, still in expansion territory but with momentum slowing for a second consecutive month, mainly due to earlier stockpiling to avoid Middle East shipping risks, while preventive stockpiling demand waned in June. In addition, end-use consumer goods demand in Europe and the US was weak, global export orders fell below the 50 mark, and the ASEAN composite PMI dropped 1 point MoM, with regional sentiment cooling significantly. China's manufacturing new export orders index at 50.1% in June, up 1.5 percentage points MoM, pointed to a marginal recovery in external demand. 2. Supply Outside China Rose MoM; Overall Supply Pressure Intensified Global crude steel production fell 0.3% YoY to 157.9 million mt in May 2026. In China, against a severe backdrop of finished steel destocking falling short of expectations and losses, steel mills proactively brought forward maintenance plans to defensively control output. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world rose 28.8% YoY. The Asian market was unusually resilient, with India's crude steel production recording 14.1 million mt. Meanwhile, Vietnam's production surged 27.2% YoY, driven not by a stress response to trade barriers but by downstream manufacturing entering a concentrated stockpiling phase, coupled with genuine demand from infrastructure projects rushing to meet deadlines ahead of the monsoon season. In contrast, production in the Middle East plunged 19.4% YoY in May, with previous war damage from geopolitical conflicts and wartime energy controls remaining an invisible and heavy ceiling suppressing production resumptions in the region. Production regions in Europe and the US (the US up 9.2% YoY, Germany up 7.3% YoY) maintained relatively active operating rates, supported by new-type data center infrastructure and anticipatory moves to preempt regional trade barriers such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). It is reported that the Middle East recently started offering billet exports and concluded deals. Meanwhile, increased production in India, Vietnam and others also put some pressure on domestic exports. Figure 1: Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price Advantage Narrowed Significantly; Pressure on Export Orders Intensified As of July 16, 2026, HRC export quotations (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS were $510/mt, $408/mt, and $530/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export quotation (FOB) was $493/mt. Currently, China's HRC export quotations are $17/mt, $115/mt, and $37/mt lower than those countries. China's steel export price advantage narrowed significantly MoM from June. The overseas market remained in the off-season, and low-price export promotion remained the main channel for them to relieve domestic pressure. In China, prices remained relatively firm supported by costs. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets narrowed markedly, intensifying pressure on export orders. Figure 2: HRC Quotations in Major Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export Orders Remained at Low Levels in May-June; A Sudden Increase Is Difficult According to SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, planned HRC exports for this month totaled 1.059 million mt, up 5.2% MoM from actual exports last month. SMM's steel export order data showed that due to the ongoing overseas off-season and consecutive overseas price declines, steel export orders in May-June declined significantly MoM from the previous period. Figure 3: SMM Steel Export Order Volumes Source: SMM 5. Anti-Dumping Cases with Impact Increased in June New anti-dumping related cases in China increased in June, involving products such as steel pipes, coated sheets, cold-rolled, stainless steel, hot-rolled, and medium-thickness plates. Details of the cases and their impact volumes are shown in the table below. Table 3: New Anti-Dumping Cases in June Source: SMM Overall, against the backdrop of the overseas off-season coupled with a narrowing price advantage, the weakness in earlier export orders may gradually be reflected in export data. SMM expects that actual steel exports in July will face some downward pressure. However, as overseas prices continue to pull back and hit bottom, some new procurement demand may be released. Figure 4: Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Source Declaration: All data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute any decision-making advice. Note: This article is original content of this official account. If you need to reprint, whitelist, or cooperate, please contact us. 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Tightening supply policy in Indonesia, new import quotas and carbon costs in the EU, and tariff walls in the US pushed benchmark stainless steel prices higher across nearly every major market in the first half of 2026 — even as real demand stayed weak everywhere, turning global trade increasingly into a fight over market access rather than supply and demand.

IIn June 2026, POSCO held a completion ceremony for its Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) at the Gwangyang steelworks on South Korea's southern coast, approximately 360 kilometers from Seoul, and has initiated the full-scale production of low-carbon steel. With an annual designed capacity of 2.5 million tons , this EAF is the largest single facility of its kind in South Korea. This marks POSCO's first large-scale upstream steelmaking investment in over two decades, signaling the beginning of a structural adjustment to its blast furnace-centric production system. Against the backdrop of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entering its definitive payment stage and the tightening of Phase 4 of the Korea Emissions Trading Scheme (K-ETS), the strategic significance of this project outweighs the sheer capacity itself. Project Details & Commissioning Timeline The special significance of this project lies in its time span: since the blow-in of Blast Furnace No. 5 at the Gwangyang plant in April 2000, POSCO had not invested in major upstream steelmaking capacity for over 20 years. This pivot to EAFs represents the first directional shift in its blast furnace-centric hot metal production system in half a century. Regarding technical configuration, the EAF primarily utilizes steel scrap as its raw material, substituting the traditional iron ore-coke reduction route of the blast furnace through scrap melting. This shift achieves up to 75% CO2 emission reductions compared to traditional blast furnaces. The core equipment is supplied by Italy's Tenova, featuring the Consteel continuous scrap charging system and the Consterrer electromagnetic stirring system. POSCO also utilizes the off-gas generated during EAF operations to preheat the scrap, thereby enhancing energy efficiency. The completion ceremony was attended by South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and POSCO Group Chairman Jang In-hwa. Key Timeline Market Impact Post-Commissioning In the short term, the direct market impact of this EAF is relatively mild; its value is predominantly structural and strategic. This can be analyzed through three key threads: raw materials, products, and regulations. Scrap Market — Gradual demand release, but with a cautious pace: In the initial stage of commissioning, POSCO plans to primarily consume internally generated scrap at the Gwangyang plant, keeping external purchases limited; the company estimates external scrap purchases in 2026 to be approximately 2 million tons . Because the green steel market has grown slower than previously expected, scrap consumption in the short term may remain relatively restrained. This means the EAF's upward pull on South Korean and regional scrap prices will be gradual, rather than causing a significant demand spike in the year of commissioning. Entering High-End Flat Products via Hot Metal Blending: POSCO's differentiated approach relies on "hot metal blending" technology, which mixes and refines molten steel from the EAF with hot metal from the blast furnace to lower carbon emissions while maintaining the steel quality required for high-end products. The company has designated high-grade EAF steel as one of its eight strategic products and established an integrated R&D, production, and sales project team, aiming to mass-produce automotive sheets and electrical steel by 2030. This directly addresses the growing demand for low-carbon steel from downstream automotive and electrical clients, distinguishing POSCO's EAF route from ordinary long-product EAF capacities. Regulation & Competition — Low-carbon capacity as a hedge for export competitiveness: The timing of the commissioning is highly aligned with tightening global regulations. The EU CBAM entered its definitive stage on January 1, 2026, requiring imported steel to incur fees for its embodied carbon emissions. This obligation ratio will increase annually from about 2.5% in 2026 to 100% by 2034 (corresponding to the synchronized phase-out of free allowances within the EU). For export-oriented South Korean steelmakers, low-carbon capacity acts as a hedging tool to maintain competitiveness in the European market. Overall, the Gwangyang EAF will not significantly alter POSCO's production volume structure or overall carbon footprint in its first year— 2.5 million tons represents a limited share relative to its total crude steel production. Its true significance lies in establishing a low-carbon product line and corresponding client relationships ahead of the commercialization of hydrogen-reduction steelmaking. It is a layout where the "option value" exceeds the "current capacity value." Global Steel Decarbonization Background The steel industry accounts for approximately 7%–9% of global CO2 emissions (World Steel Association data), making it one of the hardest-to-abate heavy industries. The root of the emission disparities lies in the steelmaking routes: the traditional Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) process relies on coking coal as energy and a reducing agent, making it the most carbon-intensive route; whereas the Scrap-EAF route relies primarily on electricity, making it the most mature route with the lowest carbon intensity. However, the practical constraint on route transition lies in the existing capacity structure. Within global crude steel production, the BF-BOF route still accounts for roughly 72% ; scrap-based EAF accounts for about 21% , with the remainder being Direct Reduced Iron-EAF (DRI-EAF) and other routes. China, accounting for over half of global production with a nearly 90% blast furnace share, has become the critical variable determining the pace of global steel decarbonization. Targeting the 2050 net-zero goal, mainstream pathways require the production structure to significantly tilt toward EAFs and hydrogen-based direct reduction. Yet, the transition is bottlenecked by a triple constraint: the supply and availability of high-quality scrap, the scaling up of green electricity, and the cost premium of low-carbon steel over traditional products. POSCO's "two-step" arrangement—using EAF as a transition and HyREX hydrogen reduction as the endgame—is a quintessential choice within this global landscape. South Korean Steelmakers' Decarbonization Efforts The decarbonization of the South Korean steel industry is not a solo endeavor by a single enterprise. As early as February 2021, six South Korean steelmakers, including POSCO and Hyundai Steel, jointly issued a 2050 Carbon Neutrality Declaration and established the "Green Steel Committee," comprising industry, academia, research institutions, and government departments. Since then, driven by the dual pressures of policy constraints (K-ETS Phase 4, South Korea's Nationally Determined Contributions - NDC) and external forces (CBAM), each company has formed decarbonization layouts with similar trajectories but different focuses. The common logic for both companies is clear: currently employing "transitional technologies" such as EAFs and hot metal blending to reduce the carbon footprint of products, introducing hydrogen-based direct reduction around 2030, and targeting 2050 for a full transition. The differences lie in their entry points—POSCO is betting on its self-developed HyREX as the core for the hydrogen metallurgy endgame, whereas Hyundai Steel, under its Hy-Cube brand, aims to commercialize high-end flat EAF products (like automotive sheets) much earlier. The commissioning of the Gwangyang EAF is precisely a quantifiable, deliverable milestone in this overarching transition process.

South Africa's global chrome ore exports eased marginally in May 2026 to 2.43 million mt, down 1.82% month-on-month from 2.47 million mt in April, but still 43.08% higher than a year earlier. High-carbon ferrochrome (HC FeCr) exports moved in the opposite direction, rising 5.66% MoM to 123,795 mt, though volumes remained 48.76% below May 2025.

New country-by-country quotas reward South Korea's balanced access and Indonesia's hot-rolled position, while Taiwan, China, Vietnam and Turkey face a tighter squeeze once melt-and-pour disclosure rules bite from October 1.

ArcelorMittal has called on the European Union to extend the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) starting in January 2026 and the revised Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) system starting in July 2026 to cover downstream steel products by 2027. The company warned that nearly two-thirds of non-grain oriented electrical steels (NGOES) used for new electric motors and generators in Europe are imported from outside the EU. Failing to protect this downstream value chain undermines the EU's climate policies and risks devastating Europe's strategic manufacturing autonomy amidst subsidized global overcapacity.

As resource security and decarbonization become increasingly important, major economies are strengthening efforts to retain aluminum scrap. From the EU's review of export controls and the U.S. strategic asset proposal to Japan's circular economy initiatives and policies in the UAE and South Africa, these developments could reshape global scrap flows and affect secondary aluminum markets.

Italy's metallurgical and steel association, Assofermet, has issued a stark warning regarding the severe impact of the European Union's upcoming trade defense mechanisms on downstream processors and distributors. With the current steel safeguard regime set to expire on July 1, 2026, new provisions will introduce a strict annual duty-free quota of approximately 18.3 million metric tons (mt) for steel imports, and any volumes exceeding this cap will face a punitive 50% duty. Coupled with the mandatory origin tracing for steel melting and pouring, and the full implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) since January 1, 2026, these policies disproportionately favor upstream producers. Assofermet argues that this unbalanced protection will trigger surging raw material costs and reduced sourcing options for the downstream supply chain, which could ultimately suppress overall European steel demand and erode the continent's manufacturing competitiveness on the global stage.

Over the past half-century of industrialisation, the global seaborne iron ore market consolidated around a duopoly dominated by Australia's Pilbara region and Brazil's Carajás and Iron Quadrangle districts. However, driven by macroeconomic cycle evolution, a structural shift in China's growth engine, and the steel industry's irreversible push toward low-carbon and green transformation, this traditional supply map is undergoing an unprecedented reshaping. On 26 November 2025, the first commercial vessel loaded with Simandou iron ore departed from the Port of Mabarya, marking the official commissioning of Guinea's Simandou Iron Ore Project — the world's largest undeveloped high-grade greenfield iron ore deposit by reserve. This milestone signals that the African continent, long relegated to secondary status, is progressively emerging as a significant new force in the global ferrous metals market. Africa's iron ore resources are widely regarded as the third-largest iron ore supply region globally, after Brazil's Carajás and Australia's Pilbara. With an estimated 13.8% share of global iron ore resources, and representing the most significant supply-side growth driver over the next five years, shifts in African iron ore dynamics will be a key determinant of international iron ore pricing over the long term. I. Global Iron Ore Market Background According to SMM research data, global iron ore production in 2025 is estimated at approximately 2.472 billion tonnes (bt). Africa contributes roughly 95 million tonnes (Mt), representing close to 4% of global output. As major mining projects progressively come on stream, Africa's iron ore production capacity is forecast to double by 2030, reaching approximately 259 Mt. Assuming no production curtailments elsewhere, Africa's global market share could rise to nearly 10%, while the overall global iron ore supply surplus is projected to widen to approximately 220 Mt. Although the international iron ore market has already entered a prolonged loose supply cycle, the substantive supply shock from African iron ore is expected to materialise gradually over the next five years. In the near term, Africa's estimated incremental shipment of approximately 15 Mt in 2026 — bolstered by its superior high-grade characteristics — is expected to be absorbed relatively smoothly by steelmakers seeking low-carbon blending feedstocks, resulting in a relatively moderate impact on absolute benchmark pricing. The critical inflection point is projected to fall in 2028–2029. As rail and port infrastructure currently under construction in West Africa is fully commissioned, a surge in high-grade iron ore output will exert heavy downward pressure on the right-hand side of the global iron ore cost curve. This will not only systematically compress the iron ore price floor but will trigger intense structural displacement — squeezing the operating margin of low-grade, high-cost producers. The current price downcycle is expected to persist through 2028. When international ore prices breach the USD 90/tonne marginal cost support level, higher-cost non-mainstream small and mid-size mines will be forced into curtailment and exit. The resulting supply shakeout will reshape the global iron ore supply structure into a multi-oligopoly dominated by ultra-large, low-cost operations (including the new African mines), complemented by quality mid-tier producers. II. Africa's Current Market Landscape: South Africa as Dominant Producer, West Africa Expanding Aggressively Building on the global context, this section focuses on Africa's overall iron ore landscape. As the primary driver of supply growth over the next five years, Africa's iron ore production is concentrated in West Africa and South Africa, currently dominated by three key countries. South Africa South Africa is the continent's largest producer, with 2025 output reaching approximately 67 Mt and export shipments maintaining an overwhelming 65% share of total African iron ore exports. However, South Africa's iron ore sector faces structural constraints limiting its organic growth headroom. As other emerging African resource nations commission significant new projects, South Africa's share of total African export volumes is projected to face sustained compression. Mauritania Mauritania is Africa's second-largest iron ore producer, with 2025 output of 15 Mt and export volumes of approximately 12 Mt, representing approximately 12% of the African market. Strategically situated adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean with high-grade iron ore deposits deep within the Sahara Desert, Mauritania possesses highly advantageous geographic and mineralogical characteristics. Its proximity to European and Middle Eastern markets — both in urgent need of green industrial raw materials — provides ideal conditions for the country to become a hub for global green metallurgy capacity relocation. Mauritania is expected to emerge as a highly promising iron ore supply nation going forward. Sierra Leone Sierra Leone is another important regional supply pole, with projected 2025 output also reaching approximately 12 Mt, holding a stable share of approximately 12% in the African export market. Chinese-invested iron ore mines within the country are actively scaling up their operations. Trade Flow Overview Based on full-year 2024 trade data, the proportion of African iron ore shipped to China is relatively low compared to traditional mainstream ore origins, at approximately 60%. The broader Pan-Asian market — encompassing China, Japan, and South Korea — absorbs approximately 70% of total African iron ore shipments. Western European countries, led by the Netherlands and Germany, constitute Africa's core secondary destination, accounting for close to 14% of trade flows. The remaining marginal trade flows are broadly diversified, extending to emerging steelmaking capacity clusters in the Middle East, including Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Key Corporate Players At the corporate level, South Africa's Kumba Iron Ore and Assmang rank as Africa's largest and second-largest iron ore producers, with annual output of approximately 37 Mt and 17 Mt respectively. Kumba Iron Ore: Kumba's mining operations — including the Sishen mine — are globally recognised for producing high-grade fines (Fe >62%) and metallurgically superior premium lump ore (Fe 65.2%). Under the prevailing trend of blast furnace (BF) emission reduction, this type of direct-charge lump ore — which reduces sintering-related carbon emissions — commands strong market demand and a substantial price premium. Assmang: Assmang similarly holds high-quality iron ore assets, operated as a 50:50 joint venture between African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) and Assore. Its Assmang Fines and Assmang Lump products (Fe 64–65%) are also direct-charge, high-quality materials. However, the company's key bottleneck lies not at the pithead but on the rail. Heavy dependence on Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) for haulage means logistics constraints frequently cap its achievable shipment volumes. SNIM (Société Nationale Industrielle et Minière): Mauritania's state-owned mining company is Africa's third-largest iron ore producer after the two South African majors. Unlike mainstream Australian and Brazilian ores, SNIM products occupy a distinctive niche in terms of physicochemical specifications and market segment. Its most widely traded product, TZFC fines, is characterised by extremely low alumina (Al2O3) and phosphorus (P) content. As an excellent blending ore, major steelmakers regularly blend SNIM fines with high-alumina Australian fines (such as certain Pilbara blend products) to significantly dilute the impurity ratio in the burden, thereby optimising blast furnace performance metrics. III. Africa's Market Transformation: Major Producers Facing Stagnation; Emerging Projects as Primary Growth Drivers Where does future growth lie? According to SMM observations, Africa is expected to undergo a significant structural transformation within the next five years. Multiple large-scale iron ore projects across the continent are currently under construction, with scheduled commissioning prior to 2030. Based on our modelling, African iron ore supply is forecast to grow substantially from the current approximately 95 Mt to 260 Mt over five years — a cumulative increase of 85%. The market structure is also expected to shift from South Africa-dominated Western-oriented exports to a Guinea-led export paradigm. Guinea — Simandou Iron Ore Project The primary growth driver will be Guinea's renowned Simandou iron ore project, jointly developed by multiple entities and representing the world's largest undeveloped high-grade open-pit hematite deposit. The project holds reserves in excess of 5 billion tonnes (bt) and a designed production capacity of 120 Mt per annum, making it the project with the greatest strategic potential to reshape the existing iron ore market structure. Since first ore shipments in late November 2025, cumulative exports from the principal export hub — the Port of Mabarya — reached approximately 1.6 Mt through Q1 2026. Blocks 1 & 2, developed under the Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), have successfully commenced production, with 2026 capacity expected to reach nameplate and ramp-up to 60 Mt per annum projected over the next two to three years. Blocks 3 & 4, led by Simfer (a Rio Tinto and Baowu joint venture), are forecast to commission in Q1 2026, with estimated 2026 shipments of 5 Mt and a 30-month ramp-up timeline to reach 60 Mt per annum. In aggregate, Guinea is projected to achieve 120 Mt per annum before 2030, becoming the world's second-largest single iron ore project by capacity — second only to Vale's S11D project in Brazil (designed capacity of 200 Mt post-expansion, expected by 2030). Other African Countries — Key Development Projects Other nations — including Liberia, Gabon, Sierra Leone, and the Republic of Congo — all have iron ore projects under development. Projects scheduled for commissioning before 2030 account for a combined planned capacity of approximately 46 Mt. The largest single project is ArcelorMittal Liberia's (AML) Tokadeh Phase II, expected to commission in H2 2026 and reach a nameplate capacity of 20 Mt per annum by year-end, producing iron ore concentrate with an estimated grade exceeding Fe 66%. Given that AML's European steelmaking capacity cannot absorb such a large volume increment in the near term, the majority of Tokadeh's output is expected to enter the international seaborne market, exerting pricing pressure on the iron ore concentrate segment. South Africa — Structural Constraints on Production Growth South Africa's output is expected to remain broadly stable in the 63–67 Mt range, with mild downside risk. The primary underlying cause is the country's heavy dependence on the heavy-haul Sishen–Saldanha Bay rail corridor, operated by Transnet Freight Rail (TFR). In recent years, TFR has suffered a severe reduction in effective haulage capacity due to locomotive fleet shortages, frequent cable theft incidents, and chronic infrastructure underinvestment, materially constraining the rail transport of major bulk commodities including iron ore and coal. In its FY2025 annual results published in February 2026, Kumba Iron Ore — South Africa's dominant iron ore producer — reported total finished goods inventory of 7.5 Mt, up from 6.9 Mt at end-2024. With rail haulage capacity unable to match mine production, South Africa's major iron ore producers have been compelled to stockpile large volumes at mine sites. To avoid inventory saturation, miners have been forced to proactively revise production guidance downward. While producers are actively addressing haulage constraints, the deeply entrenched structural issues on the rail network are unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Mauritania — SNIM Long-Term Strategic Growth Blueprint Post-2030, attention turns to SNIM's strategic growth roadmap. Under its Horizon 1 programme, the company plans to raise annual production capacity to 45 Mt by 2031, through the implementation of lean manufacturing practices, equipment and technology upgrades, and the co-development of new mineral reserves. Of this total, 20 Mt will be produced under SNIM's wholly owned capacity, while the remaining 25 Mt will be realised through joint ventures with international capital partners. SNIM has further set a long-term target to expand annual capacity to 80 Mt by 2045 under its Horizon 3 plan. Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) — MIFOR (Grand Est Iron Ore Project) On 26 March 2026, the DRC and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding designating the MIFOR project as a priority flagship initiative. The deposit is estimated to hold cumulative resources of 15–20 bt, with an average grade exceeding Fe 60% — a potential scale approximately 2.5 times that of Guinea's Simandou. Phase I capital expenditure is estimated at USD 28.9 billion, encompassing the construction of a heavy-haul railway and the utilisation of Congo River navigation, ultimately linking to a deep-water port at Banana on the Atlantic coast. Phase I design capacity stands at 50 Mt per annum, with a long-term target of scaling to 300 Mt per annum. These projects collectively underscore Africa's inevitable emergence as an indispensable iron ore supply source for the global steel industry. IV. Global Steel Industry Chain Transformation: Can Africa, as a Hub for High-Grade Ore, Enable DRI Production? High-Grade Ore as a DRI Feedstock Advantage Notably, the majority of Africa's current and planned iron ore projects produce ore at average total iron (Fe) grades predominantly above 65%, with extremely low impurity content. This scarce, high-grade ore is the ideal feedstock for the Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) process. As the DRI-Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) green steel route gains traction across Europe, the Americas, and China, demand for iron ore at Fe 65% and above will grow exponentially on the demand side. This will confer a substantial 'grade premium' on major projects, including South Africa's Kumba, Guinea's Simandou, and other future African producers. Over the longer term, iron ore pricing benchmarks are inexorably shifting away from the traditional Platts 62% Fe index, and African ore producers will gain bargaining leverage when renewing long-term supply agreements, thereby reshaping the global industry chain profit distribution structure. DRI Investment Pipeline in Africa In alignment with global carbon neutrality objectives, international investors — encouraged by local governments — are actively deploying capital into high value-added downstream processing facilities, including DRI plants and high-grade pellet facilities, aimed at leveraging Africa's abundant high-grade iron ore resources and vast renewable energy potential for DRI production. According to SMM observations, Africa is projected to add approximately 20 Mt of DRI capacity by 2030. The largest single project is a Libyan integrated DRI complex, jointly developed by Turkish steelmaker Tosyali and the Libyan National Steel Company, with a total design capacity of 8.1 Mt. China's Decarbonisation Push and the Global Green Steel Transition As China advances its dual carbon targets — carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 — the domestic steelmaking sector is undergoing significant adjustment. The traditional carbon-intensive Blast Furnace–Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) long route faces increasingly stringent capacity replacement policies and environmental regulations. Simultaneously, the global trade system is accelerating the imposition of carbon costs, most notably through the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), compelling global steel supply chains to accelerate the transition from the source toward a low-carbon, ultimately zero-carbon 'green steel' era. In the context of this irreversible transition, the DRI-EAF short-route process has become the most commercially viable decarbonisation pathway. To meet surging global demand for green steel, market projections indicate that global DRI designed production capacity will need to expand by hundreds of millions of tonnes during the 2030s. This scale of expansion will profoundly alter the global steel supply structure: the share of traditional hot metal (pig iron) production will progressively decline, while low-carbon DRI supply will directly determine the competitiveness of major economies in the global green steel market. In particular, 'hydrogen metallurgy' — using green hydrogen to replace natural gas and coking coal as the reductant in iron ore reduction — is widely recognised by the industry as the core technology for achieving ultimate zero-carbon steelmaking. Africa as the Future 'Green Iron' Production Hub Represented by world-class high-grade iron ore projects such as Guinea's Simandou, the progressive commissioning of these mega-mines is expected to inject over 100 Mt of high-grade iron ore per year into the global market, substantially alleviating the global scarcity of DRI-grade ore. More critically, North Africa and West Africa possess world-leading solar and wind energy potential, enabling large-scale, low-cost green hydrogen production in situ. This perfect combination of 'high-grade ore + low-cost green hydrogen' is increasingly inclinng multinational capital and steel majors toward establishing DRI production lines directly on African soil — reducing iron ore to low-carbon Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) on-site for ocean transport to EAF facilities in Asia and Europe. Africa is thus formally transitioning from its historical role as a raw material exporter to become an indispensable link in the green iron production chain of the future.

ArcelorMittal (AM) — 2025 Annual Report Summary ArcelorMittal, the world's second-largest steel producer, released its 2025 Annual Report in March 2026. During the year, the Group's steelmaking operations experienced a broad-based slowdown: crude steel output in Europe contracted sharply by 6.6% year-on-year, while volumes in India and Brazil also declined. Only North America recorded output growth, driven by the consolidation of an additional steelworks. These dynamics reflect softening apparent steel consumption (ASC) globally, compounded by intensifying competitive pressures. Nonetheless, the Mining segment delivered an outstanding performance — iron ore shipments from Liberia surged 37.5%, providing a meaningful offset to the headwinds in the steelmaking divisions. I. 2025 Key Production, Shipment & Financial Overview In 2025, ArcelorMittal demonstrated strong operational resilience against the backdrop of subdued global steel demand and complex trade barriers. Portfolio optimisation — notably the full consolidation of the Calvert flat-rolled finishing facility — and robust growth in the iron ore business were the key highlights of the year. Despite a marginal decline in crude steel production and shipments, net profit expanded materially, primarily driven by non-recurring items — in particular, a US$1.9 billion accounting gain arising from the acquisition of the remaining 50% equity interest in AMNS Calvert. The increase in net debt was principally attributable to the full consolidation of Calvert and other M&A activities. II. Segment Distribution & Operational Performance In 2025, ArcelorMittal's global operational footprint underwent significant structural reconfiguration, most notably through the full acquisition of the North American Calvert flat-rolling facility and the divestiture of non-core assets in Bosnia-Herzegovina, further optimising the Group's production and shipment mix. The following presents a detailed comparison of key segment production and shipment data for 2025 versus the prior year: North America The segment recorded growth in both output and shipments in 2025, primarily benefiting from the full consolidation of the AMNS Calvert facility in the second half of the year, and the recovery of Mexican production following the 2024 labour strike. Crude Steel Production: 7.8 Mt (2024: 7.5 Mt), up 2.9% YoY Steel Shipments: 10.3 Mt (2024: 10.1 Mt), up 2.2% YoY Key Development: The 1.5 Mtpa Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) at the Calvert facility was commissioned in June 2025, enhancing the supply capability of high value-added flat products in the region. 2026 Volume Outlook: Both production and shipments are expected to increase in line with broader regional trends. Growth Driver: The 1.5 Mtpa EAF at Calvert, consolidated in H2 2025, is currently in capacity ramp-up phase and will contribute incremental volumes in 2026. Brazil Despite margin pressure, the Brazil segment maintained highly stable production and shipment volumes, continuing to serve as a key profitability pillar for the Group. Crude Steel Production: 14.3 Mt (2024: 14.5 Mt), down 1.3% YoY Steel Shipments: 13.9 Mt (2024: 14.1 Mt), down 0.9% YoY Key Development: The Barra Mansa long products mill expansion was commissioned in H2 2025, adding 0.4 Mtpa of high value-added long steel capacity. 2026 Volume Outlook: Steel shipments are projected to reach 15.4 Mt in 2026, significantly above the 13.95 Mt recorded in 2025. Growth Driver: Despite demand headwinds in 2025 caused by elevated interest rates and a surge in Chinese imports, the Group holds an optimistic outlook for 2026 growth. Europe Affected by soft market demand and a planned major reline of Blast Furnace No. 4 at Dunkirk, European crude steel output contracted. However, the smaller decline in shipments indicates relatively resilient market penetration. Crude Steel Production: 29.2 Mt (2024: 31.2 Mt), down 6.6% YoY Steel Shipments: 28.4 Mt (2024: 28.7 Mt), down 0.9% YoY Key Development: The divestiture of the Zenica long products integrated steelworks in Bosnia-Herzegovina was completed in October, reflecting the Group's strategic transition toward lower-carbon assets. 2026 Volume Outlook: Shipments are expected to recover and grow. Growth Driver: As the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the revised Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) regime progressively take effect in 2026, the Group anticipates European domestic steelmakers recapturing market share from import competition. India & Other Joint Ventures Focus on the strategic joint venture AMNS India (60% equity interest): Crude Steel Production: 7.2 Mt (2024: 7.5 Mt), down 4.5% YoY, impacted by market volatility in H1 and unplanned maintenance outages Steel Shipments: 7.9 Mt (2024: 7.9 Mt), shipments remained resilient Key Development: The Hazira integrated steelworks in India is being expanded to 15 Mtpa capacity. The Group has also announced a long-term greenfield project in Andhra Pradesh with an 8.2 Mtpa capacity target, with the objective of increasing hot-rolled coil (HRC) capacity to 15 Mtpa by H2 2026, providing incremental production and shipment uplift. Crude Steel Production (Other Subsidiaries): 4.3 Mt (2024: 4.6 Mt), down 6.52% YoY Mining The Mining segment was the Group's strongest growth engine in 2025, driven by the successful ramp-up of the Phase II expansion project in Liberia. Own Iron Ore Production (Mining segment only): 35.3 Mt (2024: 27.9 Mt), up 26.5% YoY Iron Ore Shipments: 36.3 Mt (2024: 26.4 Mt), up 37.5% YoY Key Development: Liberia achieved a record annual shipment of 10 Mt and is progressing steadily toward a 20 Mtpa production target. 2026 Mining Segment Outlook: Liberia (AML): Volume Target: 20 Mtpa shipment target. The Group specifically projects that by end-2026, as the Phase II expansion and the beneficiation plant continue to ramp up, annualised shipments will exceed 18 Mtpa (vs. 10 Mt in 2025). Key Progress: A blended production model combining sinter fines and concentrates from Phase II will support a significant increase in production and shipment volumes, with rail haulage capacity being expanded toward a 30 Mtpa annual throughput target. Canada (AMMC): Trend: Stable production maintained. The conversion of the high-grade iron ore pellet plant for Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) production is expected to be completed in Q2 2026. 2026 Production & Shipment Outlook Summary The 2025 production and shipment profile signals ArcelorMittal's strategic pivot toward quality over pure volume. Despite marginal fluctuations in crude steel output in Europe and Brazil, the growth from high value-added assets in North America and low-cost iron ore operations in Liberia is structurally rebuilding the Group's cost and margin base. The Group projects global apparent steel consumption (ASC) ex-China to grow by 2% in 2026. Against this macro backdrop, the Group forecasts an increase in steel production and shipments across all regions in 2026 compared to 2025, underpinned by improvements in operational efficiency and the positive impact of trade protection measures. III. Production Infrastructure & Process Technology Profile ArcelorMittal operates a highly diversified asset portfolio spanning the full upstream-to-downstream value chain — from iron ore mining to downstream finishing and processing. As of end-2025, the Group's production process structure is as follows: Process Mix: Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) output accounts for 74% (41.2 Mt); Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) accounts for 26% (14.4 Mt). Facility Scale: The Group currently operates 30 Blast Furnaces (BF) and 27 Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF) . Capacity Distribution: Europe remains the largest production base, with an annual crude steel capacity of 39.5 Mt (53% of total), followed by Brazil (16.4 Mt) and North America (12.5 Mt). IV. Raw Material Self-Sufficiency & Supply Chain Integration The Group maintains a high degree of vertical integration upstream and downstream to hedge against market volatility — a core pillar of its industrial competitive advantage: Iron Ore Supply: Own iron ore production grew 15.1% YoY to 48.8 Mt in 2025. Canada (AMMC) contributed 25.6 Mt, while Liberia (AML) surged to 9.7 Mt. Self-Sufficiency Rates: In 2025, the Group achieved an iron ore self-sufficiency rate of 72% , a coking coal self-sufficiency rate of 91% , and a scrap steel and Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) self-sufficiency rate of 55% . Logistics Capacity: The Group operates 18 deep-water port facilities and associated rail infrastructure, handling over 51 Mt of freight annually. V. Key Asset Restructuring & Industrial Portfolio Realignment 2025 was a year of deep portfolio optimisation for the Group — divesting weaker assets and concentrating resources in high-growth, high value-added operations. Full Consolidation of Calvert (USA): In June 2025, the Group completed the acquisition of the remaining 50% equity interest in AMNS Calvert (previously a joint venture with Nippon Steel Corporation) at a nominal consideration. The facility is the most advanced flat-rolled steel finishing complex in North America. The newly constructed 1.5 Mtpa EAF produced its first slab in June 2025. Asset Divestitures & Operational Rationalisation: Bosnia-Herzegovina: Completed the sale of the Zenica integrated steelworks and the Prijedor iron ore mine. South Africa: Rationalisation of the long products business and the idling of the Newcastle steelworks were completed by end of January 2026. India Expansion: AMNS India remains a core growth engine. The Hazira integrated steelworks is on track to expand capacity to 15 Mtpa by H2 2026. VI. Major Capital Project Progress (Capex Allocation) ArcelorMittal is currently in a dual capital expenditure cycle: EAF transition and upstream iron ore capacity expansion . Total capital expenditure in 2025 amounted to US$4.34 billion . VII. Decarbonisation Pathway & Industrial Technology Upgrade ArcelorMittal is at a critical juncture in its transition from conventional blast furnace-based integrated steelmaking toward low-carbon process routes: EAF Capacity Expansion: By end-2026, the Group expects to add 3.4 Mtpa of EAF capacity, spanning Gijón and Sestao in Spain, and Calvert in the USA. Key Technology Projects: The 2.0 Mtpa EAF project at Dunkirk, France (€1.3 billion investment) is planned for commissioning in 2029 and is expected to generate carbon emissions at approximately one-third of the level of a conventional blast furnace. Energy Transition: By end-2025, the Group had commissioned 1.6 GW of renewable energy equity capacity, with a further 1.2 GW under construction, primarily in India and South America, with the objective of supplying low-cost clean electricity to steelmaking operations. Carbon Footprint: Absolute carbon emissions declined 3.1% YoY in 2025, representing a cumulative reduction of 47% from the 2018 baseline. It is noteworthy that, given the limited commercial-scale deployment of low-carbon technologies (green hydrogen, Carbon Capture and Storage), the Group's emissions reductions are currently achieved primarily through portfolio restructuring and EAF electrification . VIII. Additional Key Information Portfolio Optimisation: Full Acquisition of Calvert: By acquiring NSC's 50% equity stake, ArcelorMittal has gained full operational control of North America's most advanced flat-rolled steel finishing complex. Exit from Non-Core Assets: The divestiture of the high-carbon-intensity integrated steelworks at Zenica, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and associated iron ore mines reflects a "decarbonise first, then grow" portfolio strategy. Operational Risks: Geopolitical Risk: The Kryvyi Rih steelworks in Ukraine (AMKR) is currently operating at only 35% of rated capacity , facing significant logistics and supply chain disruption. Trade Barriers: US Section 232 tariffs were raised to 50% in 2025, increasing the cost burden on cross-regional material flows. 2026 Outlook: Global apparent steel consumption (ASC) ex-China is projected to grow 2% . The Group's capital expenditure plan for 2026 is budgeted in the range of US$4.5–5.0 billion , with continued focus on the Liberia iron ore expansion and the electrification of process technology in Europe. Summary: 2025 was a year of "deepening asset quality" for ArcelorMittal. By converting its core North American joint venture Calvert into a wholly-owned subsidiary, and achieving successful delivery milestones at the Liberia iron ore mine and India's green energy projects, the Group further consolidated its vertically integrated competitive advantages. For investors, the sustainability of free cash flow generation and the recovery of market share under the EU CBAM framework remain the key monitoring indicators over the next one to two years.