Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include China’s February CPI y/y, the US February non-seasonally adjusted CPI y/y, the US January core PCE price index y/y, and the preliminary US March one-year inflation expectations; meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, with unchanged impacts on maritime shipping and energy supply, while a surge in oil prices has hit interest rate cut expectations, and US Treasury traders have increasingly expected that the US Fed will not cut interest rates this year. In addition, on March 6, SHFE officially announced the passage of the revision plan for lead futures contracts, with secondary lead substitutes at a discount of 150 yuan/mt to deliverable-grade material. LME lead, overseas geopolitical issues have mixed bullish and bearish impacts on the lead market: on the one hand, hindered transportation and rising energy prices such as natural gas have pushed up smelting cost, and lead-acid battery exports have also been constrained by transportation restrictions; on the other hand, there is the impact of damage to the economic environment. In addition, overseas lead inventory has remained elevated after surging by more than 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year period, leaving lead prices under pressure. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,930-1,990/mt next week. SHFE lead, in March, both domestic lead ingot supply and demand increased, and with imported lead supplementing supply, the destocking speed of lead ingots has been slow, leaving insufficient momentum for lead prices to rise. The secondary lead segment is currently in a loss-making state, and some smelters have slowed the pace of resuming production, providing support for lead prices. In addition, next week is the week before delivery for the SHFE lead 2603 contract, and suppliers will transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouse; expectations of a cumulative increase in visible inventory may weigh on lead prices. Overall, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,600-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-16,700 yuan/mt. Demand side, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises rose, and their lead ingot purchases will rise accordingly, with more expectations of purchasing as needed. Supply side, primary lead smelters’ production was steady to slightly higher, and market circulating supply was ample; however, considering the factor of shipping to delivery warehouse, this may ease suppliers’ pressure to make shipments, keeping spot discounts stable, while secondary refined lead smelters have resumed work at a slightly slower pace and, amid losses, secondary refined lead smelters will hold prices firm in shipments, with limited widening of discounts.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Middle East Geopolitical Conflict Drove a Sharp Surge in Aluminum Prices; In the Short Term, Aluminum Prices Are Expected to Hold Up Well]

SMM Nickel News on March 2: Macro and Market News: (1) Iran Situation: Trump said the new Iranian leadership wants to resume negotiations, and he has agreed to dialogue. Military action against Iran could last for four weeks. (2) The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the government work report. Spot Market: On March 2, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 1,150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums and discounts, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 7,150 yuan/mt, down 700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -700-300 yuan/mt, showing a decline. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract fluctuated rangebound in the morning session, closing at 139,010 yuan/mt with a decrease of 0.26% by the end of the morning session. Over the weekend, the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, leading to a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and market sentiment quickly turned risk-averse, causing a slight correction in nickel prices. The medium and long-term logic of supply tightening at the mine end remains unchanged, and it is expected that the most-traded SHFE nickel contract will continue to oscillate around the 140,000 yuan/mt level in the short term.

[SMMS Morning Meeting Summary: Sudden Geopolitical Risks in the Middle East, Zinc Prices Expected to Fluctuate at Highs] Last Friday, LME zinc recorded three consecutive days of decline, with the daily candlestick center shifting downward. The core PPI in the US reached its fastest growth rate in a year, complicating the US Fed's monetary policy. Additionally, over the weekend, a sudden geopolitical conflict erupted in the Middle East, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz...

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in January 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% YoY. Specifically, urban areas saw a 0.2% rise, while rural areas increased by 0.1%; food prices declined by 0.7%, whereas non-food prices rose by 0.4%; prices for consumer goods went up by 0.3%, and prices for services increased by 0.1%.

[Non-Farm Payrolls Data Exceed Expectations, SHFE and LME Zinc Prices Pull Back] At the beginning of the week, the gradual digestion of macro sentiment led to a decline in LME zinc; however, continued destocking of overseas LME zinc inventory provided bottom support for prices. Subsequently, as the market continued to await the delayed release of non-farm payrolls and CPI data, trading activity became more cautious, and LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend.

[SMM Steel Market Morning Brief: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Consumer Prices Rose 0.1% YoY in December 2024, Up 0.2% for the Full Year] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in December 2024, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% YoY. Among these, urban areas saw a 0.1% increase, while rural areas remained flat; food prices fell 0.5%, non-food prices rose 0.2%; consumer goods prices dropped 0.2%, and service prices increased 0.5%. On a MoM basis, the national CPI remained unchanged in December. For the full year of 2024, the national CPI rose 0.2% compared to the previous year.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the CPI fell by 0.2% MoM and 0.1% YoY in May. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% YoY, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points MoM. The PPI fell by 0.4% MoM and 3.3% YoY, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points MoM. The NBS pointed out that the MoM decline in CPI was mainly influenced by the drop in energy prices, while the expansion of the PPI decline indicated that macro policies were being implemented with greater force, the supply-demand relationship in some sectors had improved, and prices were showing positive changes.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in January 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.5% YoY and 0.7% MoM. In the same month, both the ex-factory prices and purchase prices of industrial producers fell 2.3% YoY, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month, and both decreased 0.2% MoM.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, CPI in China rose by 0.2% year-on-year in May. From January to May, the average CPI rose 0.8% YoY.