After returning from the Chinese New Year holiday, Q4 reports from listed miners outside China have been released one after another recently. 2025 was a period of concentrated release of new capacity at mines outside China. What was the specific situation? What are the expectations for 2026? Let us analyze it by enterprise.

On March 10, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China’s cumulative steel exports in January-February 2026 reached 15.591 million mt, down 8.1% YoY, with February steel exports at 7.837 million mt. China’s cumulative steel imports in January-February 2026 were 827,000 mt, down 21.7% YoY. China’s Steel Exports Declined YoY in January-February Against last year’s high base, China’s cumulative steel exports in January-February fell 8.1% YoY, but still remained at a relatively high level for the same period in previous years. The YoY decline in total exports in January-February was attributable, on the one hand, to policy impacts. At the end of 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced that the export licensing system would take effect on January 1, 2026. As it basically covered all steel export categories, policy uncertainty made some export traders more cautious in taking orders. On the other hand, the appreciation of the yuan weakened the price advantage of exports, which also affected order-taking. In February, despite fewer calendar days, the MoM figure still increased. The reason was that some steel mills engaged in compliant exports actively pursued export orders to ease pressure from domestic sales while traders stayed on the sidelines. Meanwhile, in the early stage of export license implementation, both customs and exporters needed to spend more time adapting to policy changes. As time passed, overall work efficiency improved, and port cargo pick-up also accelerated accordingly. China’s Steel Imports Remained at a Low Level in January-February On the import side, China’s cumulative steel imports in January-February were 827,000 mt, down 21.7% YoY; net steel exports reached 14.764 million mt, down 7.3% YoY. Short-Term Outlook for Steel Exports According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI stood at 51.2% in February 2026, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, remaining above 50 for two consecutive months. Asia, Europe, and the Americas all posted MoM increases and all stayed above the threshold, indicating signs of improving recovery in global manufacturing. However, affected by the long Chinese New Year holiday in China, the new export orders index of China’s manufacturing PMI was 45% in February, down 2.8 percentage points MoM. At the same time, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have surged recently, bringing uncertainty to the just-improving global economic recovery. According to monitoring data from the World Steel Association, global crude steel production totaled 147.3 million mt in January 2026, down 6.5% YoY, mainly dragged down by the sharp contraction in China’s production, which fell to 75.3 million mt in the single month, with a YoY decline as high as 13.9%. However, excluding the Chinese market, the rest of the world actually achieved about 3.6% growth against the trend in January, showing localized resilience amid divergence. The continued recovery of global crude steel capacity has brought some suppression to China’s steel exports. As of March 6, 2026, export offers for HRC (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $500/mt, $566/mt, and $460/mt, respectively, while China’s HRC export offer (FOB) was $472/mt. At present, China’s HRC export offer was respectively -$28/mt, -$94/mt, and +$12/mt versus those countries. Overall, China’s steel exports still had an absolute price advantage. Figure 1 - HRC Export Offers in Major Global Markets Source: SMM According to SMM’s latest steel mill export scheduling data, the planned HRC export volume for this month was 819,000 mt, down 125,000 mt from last month’s actual exports, with a MoM decline of 13.2%, mainly because major northern mills planned to adjust their export product mix. According to SMM steel export order-taking data, as the impact of export licenses gradually faded, export order-taking gradually recovered in mid-to-late January. Meanwhile, with the long Chinese New Year holiday approaching, most export traders brought sales forward, so overall export order-taking maintained relatively high MoM growth. However, due to shipping disruptions caused by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, earlier orders would face certain difficulties in shipment. Taking all factors into account, with the support of more calendar days in March, SMM expected a mild MoM rebound in overall export volume, though product divergence remained evident. Subsequent changes in total export volume would likely depend on judgment over the US-Iran conflict. If the conflict ends quickly, the overall impact will be relatively limited. Some domestic export traders have even taken on some semi-finished products orders lost from the Middle East due to the conflict, and Middle East demand has only been delayed rather than disappeared, with expectations of a demand surge after the conflict ends. But if the conflict turns into a protracted war, previously expected Middle East demand may face the risk of reassessment, while uncertainties such as ocean freight rates would also cause part of the demand to turn cautious. Figure 2 - SMM Steel Export Order Intake Source: SMM Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original article of this official account. For any reposting, whitelist, or cooperation needs, please contact us. Without permission, it may not be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to third parties, nor may any third party be authorized to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal liability for infringement, including but not limited to claims for breach of contract, recovery of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. Scan the Code to Get Information for Free

[CISA: Safeguard the Overall Interests of the Industry Chain and Jointly Resist "Cut-throat Competition"] In May, some automakers once again significantly reduced the prices of NEV products, spreading panic over a new round of "price wars" throughout the automotive industry. There are no winners in a "price war," and there is certainly no future. We propose: The steel and automotive industries should forge a consensus, strengthen their internal capabilities, enhance self-discipline, and jointly break free from "cut-throat competition." They should leverage technological innovation to drive the healthy and sustainable development of the industry chain and take practical actions to maintain a fair and orderly market order. Only in this way can the automotive and steel industry chains achieve "high-quality supply assurance and mutually beneficial outcomes with efficiency," thereby truly realizing high-quality development, embodying the spirit of "Made in China," and contributing China's strength and wisdom to the healthy development of the global economy!

CISA: Monthly Report on the Operation of Major Steel-Consuming Industries, January-February 2025 From January to February 2025, the construction industry, a major steel-consuming sector, continued to decline, while the manufacturing industry maintained steady growth. Among them, the main indicators of the real estate sector continued to decrease YoY, with the rate of decline narrowing. Infrastructure construction investment and power investment maintained growth. The added value of the machinery industry continued to grow, and the export value of mechanical and electrical products increased. Automobile production achieved rapid growth, with NEV production continuing to surge, while the growth rate of automobile exports declined. The production of the three major white goods in the home appliance industry maintained growth, with the growth rate of home appliance exports narrowing. Container production also maintained growth.

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) held an information conference on the 29th. In Q1, the cumulative operating revenue of key statistical member steel enterprises reached 1,436 billion yuan, down 6.61% YoY; operating costs amounted to 1,350.5 billion yuan, down 7.73% YoY; and total profits stood at 21.583 billion yuan, up 1.08 times YoY.

[CISA: Steel inventory of key steel enterprises reached 15.3 million mt in late May] In late May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises under statistical monitoring was 15.3 million mt, a decrease of 1.05 million mt MoM (down 6.4%), an increase of 2.93 million mt compared to the beginning of the year (up 23.7%), an increase of 10,000 mt compared to the same period of the previous month (up 0.1%), an increase of 730,000 mt compared to the same period of last year (up 5.0%), and a decrease of 320,000 mt compared to the same period of the year before last (down 2.0%).

[CISA: 141 Enterprises Complete Ultra-Low Emission Retrofits Throughout the Entire Process, Involving Crude Steel Capacity of Approximately 591 Million mt] Jiang Wei, Vice President and Secretary General of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), stated at an information conference held in Beijing on the 29th that as of April 20, 2025, a total of 189 steel enterprises had completed or partially completed ultra-low emission retrofits, as well as assessment and monitoring. Among them, 141 enterprises had completed ultra-low emission retrofits throughout the entire process, involving crude steel capacity of approximately 591 million mt.

According to China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), the data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's crude steel output in 2022 stood at 1.013 billion mt, down 2.1% on the year.

According to China Iron and Steel Industry Association official Weibo news, on April 26, the CISA held an information conference for the first quarter of 2023 in Beijing to introduce the operation of the steel industry.

On April 16, 2024, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Ferrous Metal Industry Chain Forum took place in Lecong, Guangdong, drawing nearly 300 steel industry representatives from the region.