Greece expects to curtail up to 3.7 TWh of renewable energy in 2026, a 75% increase from 2025, pushing curtailment rates to 12% of total green generation. Last year's grid congestion and negative prices already caused ~20% revenue losses for PV producers. While pairing solar with battery storage is the clear solution, domestic banks are currently refusing to finance these projects due to a lack of reference sites. Despite 900 MW of subsidized storage not yet operational, investors are now targeting a 4.7 GW pipeline of 'merchant-style' standalone batteries. However, flat domestic demand and unresolved regulatory frameworks continue to pose risks.

This week, the lead-acid battery market basically resumed normal trading. After logistics recovered, dealers gradually restocked as needed. Both the e-bike and automotive battery markets showed post-holiday restocking momentum, but lead prices struggled to rise, and selling prices in the battery wholesale market remained unchanged for the time being. In addition, on the producer side, lead-acid battery enterprises gradually resumed lead ingot procurement after the holiday. However, due to lead ingots stored before the holiday or long-term contract pre-sales, downstream enterprises had limited short-term replenishment purchases of spot orders, and the improvement in trading activity in the spot lead market was also limited.

SMM News on March 6: This week, secondary lead premiums showed clear regional divergence, with parity prevailing overall, and most suppliers refusing to ship at a discount; only some cargoes in South China and Central China were offered at a discount of 100-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In terms of profits, scrap battery prices stayed firm, making it difficult for smelters to reduce costs, and industry losses continued. As of March 6, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises was -330 yuan/mt, and -543 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises (by-product revenue in the model excluded tin and antimony). Looking into next week, SMM expected supply tightness in raw materials to persist, leading the secondary lead operating rate to maintain its downward trend; under loss pressure, suppliers were likely to narrow discounts or keep parity offers, while downstream battery producers still made just-in-time procurement on a wait-and-see basis, resulting in relatively light market transactions. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

This week, more players entered the solid-state battery industry, with various parties “riding” the hype: Sunstone Development and TONZE stated that their sulphide projects were still in the early R&D stage; QingTao’s Wuhai 2 billion yuan project released its EIA public notice, and a 3.5 GWh production line in Taizhou commenced operations; Suzuki acquired Kanadevia’s solid-state battery business; Yaoshi Lithium Battery completed a 200 million yuan Series A financing round.

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include China’s February CPI y/y, the US February non-seasonally adjusted CPI y/y, the US January core PCE price index y/y, and the preliminary US March one-year inflation expectations; meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, with unchanged impacts on maritime shipping and energy supply, while a surge in oil prices has hit interest rate cut expectations, and US Treasury traders have increasingly expected that the US Fed will not cut interest rates this year. In addition, on March 6, SHFE officially announced the passage of the revision plan for lead futures contracts, with secondary lead substitutes at a discount of 150 yuan/mt to deliverable-grade material. LME lead, overseas geopolitical issues have mixed bullish and bearish impacts on the lead market: on the one hand, hindered transportation and rising energy prices such as natural gas have pushed up smelting cost, and lead-acid battery exports have also been constrained by transportation restrictions; on the other hand, there is the impact of damage to the economic environment. In addition, overseas lead inventory has remained elevated after surging by more than 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year period, leaving lead prices under pressure. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,930-1,990/mt next week. SHFE lead, in March, both domestic lead ingot supply and demand increased, and with imported lead supplementing supply, the destocking speed of lead ingots has been slow, leaving insufficient momentum for lead prices to rise. The secondary lead segment is currently in a loss-making state, and some smelters have slowed the pace of resuming production, providing support for lead prices. In addition, next week is the week before delivery for the SHFE lead 2603 contract, and suppliers will transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouse; expectations of a cumulative increase in visible inventory may weigh on lead prices. Overall, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,600-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-16,700 yuan/mt. Demand side, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises rose, and their lead ingot purchases will rise accordingly, with more expectations of purchasing as needed. Supply side, primary lead smelters’ production was steady to slightly higher, and market circulating supply was ample; however, considering the factor of shipping to delivery warehouse, this may ease suppliers’ pressure to make shipments, keeping spot discounts stable, while secondary refined lead smelters have resumed work at a slightly slower pace and, amid losses, secondary refined lead smelters will hold prices firm in shipments, with limited widening of discounts.

[French Lithium Company Launches Geothermal Well Testing at the Schwabwiller Site in Alsace] The first geothermal exploration well drilled by the French lithium company at the Schwabwiller site in the Grand Ried department of Alsace, France, has begun well testing. This phase will last 3–5 weeks and is intended to verify the resource’s potential for geothermal heating and lithium production. Drilling at the Schwabwiller site began in November 2025, with a target depth of approximately 2,400 meters. The project is expected to drill a pair of wells, with a bottom-hole spacing of about 1,000 meters. The drilling campaign is expected to take a total of seven months. If results are positive, the French lithium company’s project is expected to provide geothermal heating for enterprises, farms, and local communities in northern Alsace. In addition, extracting lithium from geothermal brine will produce lithium with a lower environmental footprint, with carbon dioxide emissions reduced by about 70% compared with lithium currently on the market. Source: https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/ [Li-FT Power Strategic Assessment of the Yellowknife Lithium Carbonate Conversion Plant Project] The global lithium chemicals supply chain is at a crossroads, with traditional production models facing unprecedented pressure from accelerating electrification demand. The market landscape is increasingly tilting toward integrated producers, which can capture value across the full chain—from raw ore mining to refining and producing battery-grade lithium chemicals. This shift reflects a broader strategic realignment across the industry: enterprises are enhancing operational resilience through vertical integration rather than relying on fragmented commodity supply chains. Li-FT Power’s recently announced Yellowknife lithium carbonate conversion plant project is a representative case of this strategic evolution. The proposed facility targets annual production of 30,000 mt LCE, positioning the company within North America’s emerging battery materials ecosystem. This capacity scale reflects an intentional mid-end positioning, balancing capital efficiency with meaningful market participation. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/ [Zimbabwe Clarifies Why It Hastily Banned Exports of Some of Its Most Critical Minerals] Recently, Zimbabwe’s Minister of Mines, Polit Kambamura, reiterated this rationale, stating that miners’ under-reporting of declared volumes constitutes a serious problem that cannot be ignored. He noted that the issue has become so widespread that the government was forced to bring forward the disciplinary timetable by one year. The government had originally planned to begin imposing an export ban on lithium concentrates next year, but due to rising production and newly issued export permits, it moved to launch the ban as quickly as possible. At a press conference after a Cabinet meeting in the country’s capital, Harare, Kambamura told reporters: “The ban will remain in effect until the conditions proposed by the government or new expectations are met.” Source: https://africa.businessinsider.com/ [Rock Tech and Siemens Plan to Build a Lithium Converter in Canada] The lithium converter that Rock Tech Lithium is developing in Guben, eastern Germany, is intended to serve as a blueprint for building a similar facility in Canada in cooperation with Siemens. The project will use Siemens’ digital twin technology to digitally replicate, optimize, and scale up the plant’s design and operating processes. The lithium converter that Rock Tech is currently building in Guben, Germany, is designed for an annual output of 24,000 mt of battery-grade lithium hydroxide. The company said this will become the largest facility of its kind in Europe. It is expected to start operations in 2027. The target capacity is equivalent to about 30 Gwh of battery capacity, sufficient to meet demand for about 500,000 EV units per year. Rock Tech also plans to build a similar facility in Red Rock, Ontario, Canada. Siemens AG’s technology will be deployed for the plant’s construction and operations. The two companies have signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to establish a long-term, multi-phase strategic partnership focused on developing modern lithium converter capacity. Source: https://www.electrive.com/

DCE iron ore held up well today and dropped back slightly before the close. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 772 yuan/mt, up 1.38% from the previous trading session. The spot price rose 10-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in quoting, while steel mills made fewer inquiries. Spot trading sentiment was subdued. According to SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at 35 major ports nationwide stood at 154.8 million mt, down 590,000 mt MoM, indicating a slight destocking trend. Over the same period, the daily average port pick-up volume rebounded to 2.55 million mt, up 145,000 mt MoM, suggesting a faster pace of port shipments. Demand improved slightly. The core logic supporting iron ore prices is gradually shifting from macro demand to structural contradictions on the supply side. Market concerns over structural shortages of certain mainstream mid- to high-grade ore types are fermenting, and these expectations have strengthened bullish sentiment, providing solid bottom support for prices. Looking ahead, the market is expected to see a tug-of-war between supply and demand in the short term. On the one hand, based on the production schedule, enforcement of blast furnace maintenance is expected to strengthen next week, which will create a phased restraint on immediate iron ore consumption. Against this backdrop of weaker demand, the aforementioned structural tightness on the supply side may be temporarily less apparent. However, once this round of concentrated maintenance ends and blast furnaces resume production as planned, iron ore demand is set to warm up in the short term. Driven by a rebound in demand, the structural shortage contradiction on the supply side will quickly stand out as the market’s main trading logic, and iron ore prices are expected to, overall, hold up well at that time.

A blocked Strait of Hormuz would upend global methanol supplies, hammer conventional methanol markets, and elevate green methanol’s strategic value, pushing China to diversify imports and boost green methanol for supply security.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $15,418/mt Ni in metal content, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $49,918/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 85.5-86.5, and the payable indicator for MHP cobalt element (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 91. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,777/mt Ni in metal content.

Copper prices fluctuated downward this week. Early in the week, as the situation in the Middle East continued to escalate, expectations of a US-Iran conflict intensified. Risk-off sentiment rose, the US dollar index strengthened, and funds rotated back from risk assets. LME copper pulled back from around $13,400 to the $13,000 level, while SHFE copper also pulled back from above 103,000 yuan to around 101,000 yuan. Although the situation was briefly digested by the market and a short-lived pullback in the US dollar drove a technical rebound in copper prices, overall momentum remained limited. US ADP employment data came in better than expected; divisions within the US Fed over interest rate cuts persisted; and the White House’s nomination of Warsh as Fed Chairman also increased policy uncertainty. In terms of positioning, bulls reduced positions for several days, indicating continued exits by high-level funds. Overall, macro uncertainty and a stronger US dollar capped the rebound in copper prices, and prices remained in the doldrums in the short term. Fundamentals, as the market held expectations for higher sulphuric acid prices, the transaction center for copper concentrates was pushed further lower. Recent mine tender prices pointed to a midpoint of -$50/mt. Smelting pressure increased further. For copper cathode, post-holiday inventory buildup continued, and consumption remained sluggish with no sign of a destocking inflection point. LME, COMEX, and SHFE all showed a contango structure, leaving fewer trading opportunities. Looking ahead to next week, geopolitical tensions are expected to continue providing strong support to the US dollar, leaving copper prices facing significant resistance in the short term. Coupled with the current high-inventory fundamentals, an upside move will be difficult. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $12,800-13,200/mt, and SHFE copper between 98,000-101,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as delivery approaches, spot market trading logic will fluctuate with the price spread between futures contracts and funding costs, and is expected to gradually lift next week. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected to range from a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt.