This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China strengthened to 10,200-10,300 yuan/mt; stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same grade in Foshan rose, with a price range of 9,900-10,200 yuan/mt. From the perspective of raw material-side production costs, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely with stainless steel scrap was about 14,127.63 yuan/mt, while the production cost using only high-grade NPI was 14,789.63 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices strengthened and moved higher, mainly supported by the recovery in restarts, catch-up demand, and cost advantages. Entering March, the market fully resumed operations, yard shipments accelerated, and downstream inquiries and transactions increased significantly, lifting trading activity and laying the groundwork for prices to rise. On the futures and raw material side, SS futures saw a pause in gains this week, stainless steel spot prices posted limited increases, the pace of high-grade NPI price hikes slowed, and heat in the raw material market cooled. However, stainless steel scrap had previously been affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, and prices failed to keep pace; this week’s catch-up rally became the key driver of the price strength. In terms of supporting factors, stainless steel mills’ March production schedules rose sharply, boosting stainless steel scrap procurement demand; coupled with expectations for the “Golden March and Silver April” peak season, bullish sentiment was strong. Meanwhile, stainless steel scrap’s economic advantages over high-grade NPI were evident, lifting substitution demand and further supporting prices. However, downstream end-use demand recovered slowly, and stainless steel finished product inventory remained high, suppressing upward movement in finished product prices and transmitting to the stainless steel scrap market, thereby limiting the increase. Overall, the market this week showed a pattern of “restart recovery, increased transactions, and a catch-up price rise.” In the short term, there was still upward momentum, but gains were limited; over the longer term, attention should be paid to the pace of end-use demand recovery.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $15,418/mt Ni in metal content, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $49,918/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 85.5-86.5, and the payable indicator for MHP cobalt element (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 91. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,777/mt Ni in metal content.

SMM reported on March 5 that this week, total inventory across the two major stainless steel markets of Wuxi and Foshan showed a slight upward trend, rising from 1.0161 million mt on February 26, 2026 to 1.0164 million mt on March 5, 2026, up 0.3% WoW. This week, stainless steel social inventory increased slightly, remaining at a high level above 1 million mt. The market had entered the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April.” Although downstream end-users had gradually resumed work and production, the pace of actual demand release was slow, and the strength of the recovery still needed to be verified. SS futures lacked momentum for further upside and fluctuated within the week, making it difficult for spot prices to improve. Wait-and-see sentiment strengthened, and overall confidence pulled back compared with the previous period. Supply side, stainless steel mills’ expected planned production for March had increased significantly, and supply pressure was gradually emerging. Although supply and demand had yet to achieve a good match and the effectiveness of social inventory drawdown remained uncertain, stainless steel currently had strong cost support. Nickel ore-related news continued to ferment and provided a floor, while steel mills were proactive in maintaining prices and boosting shipments, fully aligning with procurement demand after downstream resumption of work, effectively curbing further inventory buildup. Overall, this week’s inventory trend was mainly driven by factors including a slower-than-expected downstream recovery, increased supply expectations, a pullback in market confidence, and steel mills’ active shipments. Although there was still a short-term risk of inventory buildup, supported by strong cost-side support and steel mills’ proactive adjustments, stainless steel social inventory was expected to remain broadly stable. Whether inventories can be effectively drawn down going forward will still hinge on the actual pace of downstream demand recovery.

This week, ferrous metals held up well within a narrow range. Over the weekend, turmoil in the Middle East and the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict triggered wild swings in the international energy market, sending energy and precious metals sharply higher, while ferrous metals—except coking coal and coke—mostly retreated after rapid rise following the open; mid-week, although there were bullish expectations around the Two Sessions, no new news emerged, the steel market remained relatively stable, and the pattern of raw materials outperforming finished steel products continued; in the latter half of the week, the Two Sessions’ macro conclusions met expectations, but had already been priced in by futures earlier, and high-level fluctuations in international oil prices continued to support raw materials, in turn pushing ferrous metals to edge higher on a steady footing. In the spot market, in the second week after the holiday, the market gradually resumed work and resumed production, but with insufficient momentum from futures, overall willingness to purchase was not high, and transactions were mainly concluded at low prices......

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Trade Rangebound; Bullish Sentiment for Spot Stainless Steel Weakens SMM News on March 6: SS futures showed a pattern of holding up well. SS moved in the doldrums during the night session, but after the daytime session opened, it gradually strengthened and probed higher, finally closing at 14,115 yuan/mt. In the spot market, spot quotes pulled back in the morning under the influence of weaker SS performance in the night session; however, as futures fluctuated upward, spot quotes also followed with some gains, and the overall adjustment was limited. Recently, affected by factors such as expectations for a high stainless steel production schedule in March, a slowdown in the rise of high-grade NPI prices, and a slow recovery in downstream demand, traders’ earlier bullish expectations have weakened somewhat, and their willingness to make shipments has increased. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated upward and strengthened. At 10:15 a.m., SS2604 was quoted at 14,240 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 280-480 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were generally steady; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell 25 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan was steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were steady; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted steady; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were steady. As the market enters the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April,” the stainless steel market is seeing a window for demand recovery. Downstream demand has gradually resumed work and production after the Chinese New Year holiday, and demand is showing a gradual recovery trend. However, although transactions have improved compared with the earlier period, the bustling peak-season momentum has yet to emerge. End-user procurement is mainly driven by rigid demand, with stockpiling…

[Prices Lack Upward Momentum; Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices May Temporarily Hold Steady Next Week] Steel mill production remained stable, with no significant production cuts or expansion. After the holiday, supplies gradually arrived in the market, and market supply was ample, with no pressure from resource shortages for the time being. Meanwhile, grain-oriented silicon steel has relatively high barriers in production processes, making supply-side rigidity relatively strong; coupled with the benchmark pricing role of leading steel mills, downside room for prices is limited.

[SMM Daily Brief Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, losses at coke producers have widened, dampening their production incentives. Coke supply is expected to tighten slightly, but coke producers are seeing inventory buildup, and supply remains loose for now. Demand side, the Two Sessions have already convened, and some steel mills have already carried out blast furnace maintenance; the daily average hot metal output has declined, weakening rigid demand for coke. Meanwhile, after the first round of coke price cuts, steel mill profits remain poor, and they still intend to push for lower prices. Overall, the coke market may be generally stable with slight fall and in the doldrums; after the first round of proposed cuts, expectations remain for a second round of price cuts.

According to SMM data, during the first week of the traditional "Golden March" peak season (March 2 - March 6, 2026), the most-traded stainless steel futures contract (SS2604) exhibited a strong, high-level oscillating trend. This was driven by the resonance of international geopolitical storms and the tone set by China's macroeconomic policies. By the close at 10:15 on March 6, the contract traded higher at 14,235 yuan/mt (approx. $2,063/mt), up 85 yuan/mt (approx. $12/mt) (+0.60%) from last Friday's close of 14,150 yuan/mt (approx. $2,051/mt). The market this week was characterized by "strong expectations but weak reality." A sudden global supply chain crisis and firm raw material costs provided a solid floor for market valuations. However, high spot inventories and the looming pressure of resumed production kept prices cautious when attempting upward breakouts. Macro-Economy: A "Super Macro Week" Defined by Geopolitics and Policy Support On the macroeconomic front, this was undeniably a "super macro week" with exceptionally strong signals from China and the global market. Internationally, a geopolitical "black swan" emerged as Iran claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed and threatened to strike passing vessels. This extreme event immediately sparked fears of a global supply chain crisis and surging energy expectations. U.S. Federal Reserve officials subsequently voiced concerns over the war's spillover effects and a potential rebound in inflation, significantly cooling expectations for interest rate cuts. However, in the commodities market, trades driven by "inflation hedging" and "supply chain disruptions" boosted the overall premium of the base metals sector. In China, the government work report delivered at the "Two Sessions" set the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%-5%. It explicitly proposed utilizing capacity regulations and standard-setting to deeply rectify "involutionary" (cut-throat) competition. This policy direction provides strong expectation-driven support for supply-side optimization in traditional Chinese manufacturing. Fundamentals: Inventories Near Peak, Clash of Supply and Demand Imminent Fundamentally, social inventories are showing early signs of peaking, though the market will soon face the test of surging supply. The latest SMM data shows social inventories at 1.0164 million mt this week, a marginal increase of just 300 mt from last week's 1.0161 million mt. The seasonal inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival fully aligns with industry patterns and remains within market expectations. Traders have not resorted to panic selling, keeping short-term inventory pressure manageable. However, a shift is brewing on the supply side. The output reduction caused by concentrated maintenance at Chinese steel mills in February is nearing its end. As mills enter a concentrated resumption phase in March, scheduled production is expected to rise sharply. This surge in supply will clash head-on with recovering demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, leading to a phased reshaping of the market's supply-demand dynamics. Costs: Robust Upward Resilience Sets a Solid Floor On the cost side, raw materials continued to show robust upward resilience, establishing a solid baseline for futures prices. Driven by the ongoing fallout from Indonesian nickel ore quotas and premium news, raw material prices rose across the board this week. As of March 6, high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) quotes climbed to 1,088 yuan/mtu (approx. $158/mtu), and high-carbon ferrochrome prices were adjusted upwards to 8,600 yuan/50 mt (approx. $1,246/50 mt). Although mainstream steel mills currently show low acceptance of high NPI prices and remain cautious in procurement—resulting in sparse actual market transactions—the raw material sector has minimal room to yield on price, dominated by expectations of tight ore supply and bullish sentiment. The steady climb in spot costs has effectively capped the downside risk for stainless steel prices. Outlook and Strategy In conclusion, the stainless steel market this week sought a balance amid the fierce tug-of-war between "geopolitical premiums + cost support" and "million-ton inventories + production resumption expectations." The macroeconomic shifts triggered by the Strait of Hormuz crisis, coupled with China's "Two Sessions" mandate to curb cut-throat competition, have injected immense confidence into the bulls regarding macro sentiment. Looking ahead to next week, the market will deeply enter the reality-check phase of the "Golden March" peak season. The core focus will shift to the actual implementation of steel mill resumptions in March and the pace at which downstream end-users digest substantial orders. In the short term, futures prices are expected to maintain wide fluctuations at high levels, underpinned by the cost line. Industry clients are advised to closely monitor geopolitical developments and the pace of spot inventory destocking, while rationally utilizing futures tools to lock in production margins.

[SMM Daily Review: End-Use Consumption Recovery Remained Limited, High-Grade Supply Scarcity Was Significant] News on March 6: The upstream sentiment factor for SMM high-grade NPI was 2.88, up 0.01 MoM, and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.37, up 0.05 MoM.

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, the domestic alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. The 16 green electricity smart hydrogen production systems built by Shuangliang Group for ACME Group’s Oman green ammonia project with a daily output of 300 mt officially commenced shipment. Updates on electrolyzer projects: Xinjiang Hynda Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: The EPC tender was released for an integrated production line project with an annual production of 120,000 mt of green hydrogen and 700,000 mt of green ammonia. It is understood that this project is the largest green ammonia producer in China in terms of both scale and production, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan. At present, company registration, project filing, and equipment selection have been completed. The preliminary site is in Wusu West Industrial Park, covering about 600-800 mu; the next step will be to accelerate project planning and design, EIA, energy assessment, safety assessment, and other pre-project procedures, striving to commence production and achieve results as early as possible. Sinopec Sales Co., Ltd. Xinjiang Jiangbei Petroleum Branch: The first public notice for the EIA information disclosure of the new construction project of the Kunlun Road integrated energy supply station in Karamay District was released. Construction location: opposite the bus company on Kunlun Road, Karamay District. Construction content: the project covers an area of 7,504.01 m², with a newly built station building of 390 m² and a canopy of 450 m²; it will include 4 oil storage tanks, 2 fuel dispensers, 1 set of LNG skid-mounted equipment, 2 fast charging piles, 1 set of water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, a set of hydrogen storage cylinders, and one set of hydrogen skid-mounted and refueling equipment. Annual sales: 3,500 mt of refined oil products, 800 mt of LNG, and 120 mt of hydrogen. China Coal Pingshuo Group Co., Ltd. : A change announcement was released for the procurement project of complete sets of alkaline electrolyzer equipment and ancillary facilities for Phase I of the 600,000 kW off-grid renewable energy hydrogen production project in the coal mining subsidence area of China Coal Pingshuo Group (green hydrogen coupled with the coal chemical segment), and the bid opening time was postponed to March 17, 2026. It is understood that the project adopts a main-and-auxiliary supply model, and the quotation includes 12×1,200 Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzers, 3×4,800 Nm³/h gas-liquid separation systems, 3×4,800 Nm³/h gas purification systems, etc. Junrui Green Hydrogen Energy (Shangdu County) Co., Ltd. : The 30,000 mt/year hydrogen production project in Lingyuan City completed filing. Total investment was 146,037 yuan; the project covers 375 mu, including an electrolysis workshop, 2 purification and compression workshops, a power station, a hydrogen tank farm, etc.; core equipment includes 84 sets of 1,000 Nm³/h electrolyzers, hydrogen storage tanks, as well as hydrogen purification units, compressors, etc. Inner Mongolia Green Hydrogen Steel Union Technology Co., Ltd.: The filing for the green electricity and green hydrogen steel mill plant construction project, a banner/county industrial project, was successfully completed. It was learned that the project’s main construction location is Guyang County, Baotou City; total investment: 1.02 billion yuan, funded by self-owned capital; planned construction period: from March 2026 to October 2027; construction content: construction of green electricity, green hydrogen, and green steel plant buildings and auxiliary facilities. Inner Mongolia Junhong Technology Co., Ltd.: Cancellation of the Green Methanol Plant Building Construction Project. It was learned that the Green Methanol Plant Building Construction Project of Inner Mongolia Junhong Technology Co., Ltd. is located in Baotou City—Guyang County—Jinshan Industrial Park. The project entity is Inner Mongolia Junhong Technology Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan. Policy Review 1. Premier Li Qiang delivered the Government Work Report at the Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress, emphasizing that efforts must be made to advance the development of a green, low-carbon economy. Specific measures include: improving relevant policies to promote green and low-carbon development; carrying out actions to improve quality, reduce costs, and cut carbon emissions in key industry; further advancing the development of zero-carbon industrial parks and factories; establishing a national low-carbon transition fund and actively fostering emerging growth drivers such as hydrogen energy and green fuels; implementing strong and effective controls over high energy-consuming and high-emission projects, accelerating the phase-out of outdated capacity, while supporting innovation and application of green and low-carbon technology and equipment; improving the mechanism for total resource volume management and the comprehensive conservation system, and strengthening the recycling and utilization of renewable resources. 2. The European Commission stated that it will maintain the fertilizer carbon tariff mechanism, while simultaneously implementing temporary tariff reductions and exemptions for fertilizers such as ammonia and urea, in order to balance environmental protection goals with agricultural cost pressure, ensure fair competition, and stabilize clean energy investment. 3. The European Commission approved a 4 billion euro dedicated fund for electrolyzers, providing a 30% equipment cost subsidy for projects with capacity ≥500MW/year, and setting the 2030 electrolyzer efficiency target for green hydrogen projects at ≥60% (LHV basis). Enterprise Updates Shandong Port Qingdao Port (Group) Co., Ltd. : At the Qianwan Port Area of Shandong Port Qingdao Port, the methanol bunkering vessel “Jianhang Lida” successfully carried out 2,500 mt of green methanol ship-to-ship bunkering operations for two international seagoing vessels. SPIC Green Energy Co., Ltd.: Tender Announcement for the 10th Batch of Centralized Tenders in 2026 (infrastructure projects). This includes multiple tenders related to the Lishu wind and solar power hydrogen-ammonia-methanol project: the foundation pile detection service project for the Lishu wind and solar power green hydrogen biomass-coupled green methanol project; the non-destructive detection service project for the Lishu wind and solar power green hydrogen biomass-coupled green methanol project; and the EPC project for the design and construction of the fine interior fit-out of the office building and canteen in the plant-front area of the chemical section of the Lishu wind and solar power green hydrogen biomass-coupled green methanol project. Hangzhou Fenghua Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : The major project approved by the Zhejiang Provincial Department of Marine Economic Development, jointly applied for with Windey, Baimahu Laboratory, Zhejiang University of Technology, and others—R&D and application demonstration of key equipment for an offshore wind power direct-coupled hydrogen production off-grid system—was approved. Tangshan Haitai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : Held a symposium with Beijing Energy International Holding Co., Ltd. The two sides focused on areas such as the construction of green electricity transmission corridors into Beijing and green hydrogen pipeline transportation, and conducted discussions and exchanges on deepening cooperation. China Huadian Corporation Ltd. : Party Secretary and Chairman Jiang Yi held talks in Baotou with Chen Zhichang, Member of the Standing Committee of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Party Committee and Party Secretary of the Baotou Municipal Party Committee, and Meng Qingwei, Deputy Party Secretary and Mayor. The two sides exchanged views on further deepening cooperation between central enterprises and local governments. CIMC Enric Holdings Limited​​​​​​​: Formally signed the Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement in Jakarta with PT SAMATOR Group, an Indonesian provider of industrial gases and energy solutions. Based on their deep accumulation in energy equipment, industrial gases, and clean energy, the two sides reached a consensus on long-term strategic cooperation. Zhizi Automobile Technology Co., Ltd.​​​​​​​: Completed a Series B financing of several hundred million yuan, with investors including Shengshi Juxin, Guoxin Venture Capital, Hebei Industrial Investment, Green Era, Youda Shangrong, the Private Economy Fund, Huoshui Capital, and Huitou Zhizao. The funds will mainly be used for R&D of core technologies such as intelligent driving and autonomous driving, replenishment of working capital, and global market expansion. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested service life of 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing a Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications 1. Xi’an Jiaotong University and a Peking University team jointly developed a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of AEM water electrolysis for hydrogen production, supporting the large-scale deployment of low-cost green hydrogen. 2. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum-group metals and ionomers from PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers, significantly reducing the carbon footprint. 3. Relevant research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering of Xi’an Jiaotong University and the National Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment Materials successfully developed a Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF seawater electrolysis bifunctional electrocatalyst. 4.《Technical Specification for Wind and Solar Power + ESS Coupled Green Electricity Electrolysis Hydrogen Production (No. T/CIEP 0272—2025), a group standard, was issued and implemented by the China Industrial Environmental Protection Promotion Association. Zhongneng Dayou Energy Technology Co., Ltd. successfully conducted R&D of a 100 kW-class PEM electrolyzer hydrogen production multi-field coupling test device. 5. GKN Powder Metallurgy announced that it had developed a new-generation high performance, high-porosity, high-purity porous transport layer (HP-PTL) for proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis.