According to SMM, as of February 27, 2026, the days of inventories for domestic aluminum rod plants were recorded at 12.7 days, an increase of 8.6 days from before the holiday.In the first week after the holiday, the weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum wire and cable industry rebounded to 57%, up 4 percentage points MoM, significantly higher than the pre-holiday low of 53%.

SMM, March 6: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward, while the price center fell sharply from the previous trading day. Downstream processing enterprises were bullish on the aluminum price outlook and proactively restocked, with relatively strong willingness to purchase; traders mainly focused on monetizing shipments and reducing open interest. Today’s market transactions were at the average price to 30 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.11, up 0.13 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.76, down 0.2 MoM. The direction of geopolitical tailwinds remained unclear, and aluminum prices stopped rising and pulled back in the short term. In the central China market, traders remained strongly bullish and tended to take the opportunity to purchase at lower prices, while suppliers were mainly on the sidelines with low willingness to sell. Circulating supply was relatively tight, driving premiums to continue rising. Quotes climbed from a premium of 20 yuan/mt over the central China price before the open to a premium of 50 yuan/mt over the central China price, while the final mainstream transaction prices were around a premium of 20–30 yuan/mt over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.66, down 0.1 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.41, up 0.01 MoM. Inventory side, today’s aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 2,000 mt MoM, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Wuxi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingots continued to see seasonal inventory buildup; influenced by bullish sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SMM Analysis]Macro Factors Drove, and Supply and Demand Gradually Recovered,ADC12 Prices Were Expected to Rise in March

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overseas ADC12 Prices Surged to USD 3,200, with Import Losses Expanding Sharply] In the overnight session, the aluminum alloy 2604 contract in the night session moved downwards after a higher opening and fluctuated downward. After opening at 23,295 yuan/mt, it rose to 23,420 yuan/mt, then continued to pull back, dipping to a low of 23,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,170 yuan/mt in late trading, down 1.07% from the previous close. Open interest continued to decline, with bulls clearly reducing positions; trading volume edged up, and the price center moved lower.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Middle East Geopolitical Conflict Drove a Sharp Surge in Aluminum Prices; In the Short Term, Aluminum Prices Are Expected to Hold Up Well]

[Geopolitical Tensions Disrupted the Market, With SHFE and LME Closing Lower Over the Week] At the beginning of the week, continued overseas destocking supported a higher center for LME zinc; subsequently, as geopolitical tensions fueled inflation concerns, a stronger US dollar pressured the base metals sector, and LME zinc retreated after rapid rise, with its center moving lower......

SMM, March 5: Today, market sentiment in the Foshan A00 spot aluminum market adjusted in the doldrums. Downstream players basically completed the resumption of work after the Lantern Festival, with bullish sentiment spreading. Purchase willingness and buying intensity both increased, and market transactions were in a phase of accelerated recovery. The overall supply-demand pattern changed relatively little. Although overall deliverable cargo in warehouses was ample, pressure from in-transit cargo eased slightly due to the expanded suspension of rail loading in South China. Aluminum prices rose for several consecutive sessions, leaving traders hedging positions relatively passive. Today, mainstream quotes in the South China market were at a discount of 170-180 yuan/mt to the SHFE aluminum 03 contract, with mainstream transactions at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to the SHFE aluminum 03 contract. Aluminum billet: Today, the average processing fee for SMM 6063 aluminum billet (Guangdong) was -50 yuan/mt for Φ90/100, and -100 yuan/mt for Φ120 and above, down 230 yuan/mt from yesterday. As overseas aluminum supply saw renewed turbulence, the base price fluctuated sharply. Aluminum billet processing fees came under pressure, with the discount widening. Downstream players were wary of high prices, mainly purchasing on rigid demand while pushing for lower prices, and overall market trading sentiment was average.

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Geopolitical Risks and Cost Drivers Combined: Weekly Increase in ADC12 Prices Reached 1,000 Yuan

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Center of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Moved Higher; Only a Small Volume of Rigid-Demand Transactions Were Concluded in the Spot Market This Morning]

SMM, March 5: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward, with the price center higher than the previous trading day. Affected by the US-Iran conflict, aluminum prices continued to rise. Impacted by high aluminum prices today, buying sentiment declined while selling sentiment increased. The spot-futures price spread was currently relatively strong, and some traders were still purchasing for hedging. Bullish sentiment was strong in the market, and sellers held prices firm. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were from the average price to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 2.98, up 0.3 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.96, down 0.23 MoM. Geopolitical conflict affected Aluminum Bahrain’s shipments, intensifying sentiment of financial constraints. Traders in the central China market remained bullish. Although downstream processing enterprises were constrained by weaker-than-expected orders and inventories not yet fully depleted, resulting in relatively weak purchasing sentiment, traders’ purchases boosted overall market transactions, and premiums remained relatively firm. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from central China price +10 yuan to central China price -30 yuan, with mainstream transaction prices concentrated at central China price -10 yuan to -20 yuan. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.77, up 0.07 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, up 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased 13,000 mt MoM today. Affected by seasonality, all three regions saw inventory buildup. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingots continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.