Today, iron ore futures fluctuated in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 762.5 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.07% from the previous trading day. Spot prices rose slightly by about 4 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering prices, with most prices negotiated based on actual orders. Steel mills mainly restocked based on rigid demand, and inquiries remained cautious. Overall market trading activity was moderate. According to the latest SMM statistics this week, the daily average hot metal production from sampled blast furnaces recorded 2.386 million mt, up 15,800 mt WoW, mainly due to incremental contributions from blast furnaces that previously underwent maintenance gradually resuming production. Looking ahead, as the intensity of blast furnace maintenance marginally weakens, daily average hot metal production is expected to maintain a steady rebound trend, which will provide continuous rigid support for iron ore demand growth, marking a substantial improvement in fundamental demand. However, given the dual pressure from high in-factory inventory and port inventory, it is expected to take some time for the demand increment to translate into price increases. Therefore, considering all factors, amid the interplay of recovering rigid demand and persistent inventory pressure, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate upward at lows in the short term, with the overall price center likely to experience a slight upward shift. [SMM Steel]

On February 11, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 31,628 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 31,400-32,500 yuan/mt, and the average price remained unchanged from the previous day.

[Market Daily: Futures Rise but Market Structure Unchanged, High-Grade NPI Price Rises Slightly] February 11 (SMM) - The average price of 10-12% high-grade NPI was 1,043 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 2 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous working day.

SMM Nickel February 11 News: Macro and Market News: (1) The People's Bank of China released its China Monetary Policy Execution Report for Q4 2025. The report proposed to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy. It will flexibly and efficiently utilize various policy tools, including RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, to maintain ample liquidity and relatively accommodative social financing conditions. (2) US Fed's Logan stated that if inflation pulls back and the labour market remains stable in the coming months, further interest rate cuts would not be necessary. US Fed's Harker mentioned that the US Fed's interest rate policy is likely to remain unchanged "for quite some time." The current US Fed target rate is "close" to a neutral level. According to CME's "FedWatch Tool": the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed in March is 19.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 80.4%. Spot Market: On February 11, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 137,300-147,900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 142,600 yuan/mt, up 3,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 9,000-10,000 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 9,500 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) surged during the session. By the morning close, it was reported at 139,760 yuan/mt, up 4.31%. There is new progress regarding the market's focus on Indonesia's nickel ore quota (RKAB) policy. Indonesian officials revealed that the 2026 nickel ore RKAB production target is set at 260-270 million mt, consistent with previous market expectations, which boosted market sentiment. Nickel prices are expected to hold up well in the short term.

[Domestic Iron Ore Brief: Iron Ore Concentrate Prices in Tangshan Area May Fluctuate in the Doldrums] Domestic iron ore prices in the Tangshan area are relatively stable, with 66-grade iron ore concentrates at 980-985 yuan/mt. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, producers' operational pace has slowed down, and buyer inquiries for sourcing goods are fewer. Some have accelerated direct procurement of resources from large local mines, but apart from fulfilling steel mill orders, ore dressing plants still face certain obstacles in exporting resources.

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