Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

Refined Cobalt: This week, spot prices for refined cobalt rebounded from previous lows. Supply side, mainstream smelters steadily raised their ex-works quotations in line with the increase in electronic trading prices. Traders' spot-futures price spreads generally held steady, with spreads for regular brands maintained at discounts of around 2,000 yuan/mt to parity, while spreads for high-end brands remained at premiums of 4,000-6,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises had just resumed production in the first week after the holiday, mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and actual market transactions had not yet shown a significant increase. The rebound in refined cobalt prices this week was mainly driven by two factors: first, domestic refined cobalt prices had been lower than overseas market prices for an extended period before the Chinese New Year, creating a need for price spread correction; second, recent news that some overseas companies plan to purchase refined cobalt boosted market sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, cobalt intermediate product raw materials have still not arrived in large volumes at ports, and the structurally tight supply of upstream raw materials has not fundamentally changed, which continues to provide some support for cobalt prices. Looking ahead, as downstream enterprises' restocking demand is gradually released, refined cobalt prices are expected to still have upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, the cobalt intermediate products market continued to hold up well. Supply side, it is understood that export procedures in the DRC remain relatively cumbersome, and miners have not yet achieved large-scale shipments. Suppliers' expectations for price increases have strengthened, leading them to continue suspending external quotations. Demand side, as time passes, the issue of raw material shortages for domestic smelters has become increasingly prominent. Although some enterprises have purchase willingness, due to the inability of the supply side to guarantee stable shipments and the lack of clarity in downstream orders, smelters are exercising caution in procurement amid uncertainties on both the purchasing and sales sides. Actual market transactions remain sluggish, continuing a state of "price without market." Overall, the current export progress of cobalt intermediate products is slow, and the timeline for large-scale arrivals at ports may continue to be delayed. The structurally tight supply of domestic cobalt raw materials could further intensify. It is expected that after downstream orders gradually become clear post-holiday and smelters initiate a new round of procurement, intermediate product prices will still have upward momentum. Subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of DRC exports and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week marked the first trading week after the Chinese New Year. The spot cobalt sulphate market performed sluggishly overall, with prices remaining stable. In terms of supply, most smelters had just resumed operations, and market sentiment remained dominated by a wait-and-see attitude. Producers continued to suspend quotations, leading to relatively tight spot availability. On the demand side, logistics had not fully recovered in the first week after the holiday, and downstream enterprises also adopted a wait-and-see stance. Actual transactions were limited, and overall market activity was subdued. Looking ahead, logistics are expected to gradually return to normal after the Lantern Festival. Coupled with downstream enterprises' inventory levels pulling back to near safety thresholds, restocking demand is anticipated to be released gradually. Against the backdrop of phased supply tightening and sustained raw material cost support, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to resume an upward trend.

Today, iron ore futures were in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2605 ultimately settling at 748.5 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by 2-4 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering prices, while steel mills had limited inquiries, resulting in a subdued spot trading atmosphere. The latest SMM data revealed that total inventories at ten key ports reached 118.87 million mt, up 1.80% WoW from the pre-holiday level. Overall supply remains relatively loose, with port inventories at high levels and the inventory buildup trend yet to show a clear turning point. On the demand side, daily average hot metal production continued to grow steadily, but given strong market expectations for environmental protection-driven production restrictions during the Two Sessions, iron ore's upside room is relatively limited. In summary, iron ore prices are currently more likely to fall than rise, and in the short term, prices may fluctuate rangebound.

Silver prices opened higher and moved upward this week. Spot silver ingot premiums were quoted relatively small compared to pre-holiday levels at the beginning of the week, with suppliers holding back sales and adopting a wait-and-see approach. After the physical delivery of the February futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was completed, the supply of circulating spot cargo increased, leading to a gradual decline in market premium quotes. However, there remained significant price differences among different brands of silver ingots. As of Thursday, the premium quotes for national standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market had dropped to 1,600-1,800 yuan/kg, while premiums for ingots from large manufacturers were still maintained at 1,700-2,000 yuan/kg with limited sales. In the Shenzhen area, some small manufacturers offered premiums of 1,400-1,500 yuan/kg for silver ingots against TD. After the holiday, large and medium-sized downstream enterprises showed a slight wait-and-see attitude, completing only just-in-time procurement. However, small and medium-sized enterprises demonstrated higher enthusiasm for stockpiling due to expectations of rising prices or depletion of pre-holiday inventories, leading to a gradual warming of transactions in the spot market. On the inventory side, total social silver inventory saw a slight increase this week. On one hand, downstream processing enterprises were generally closed during the Chinese New Year holiday, while silver smelters maintained normal operations, resulting in the customary inventory buildup during the holiday period. On the other hand, imported crude silver and large ingots entering the domestic market before the holiday temporarily alleviated the previous supply deficit of silver ingots. After the Chinese New Year holiday, smelter inventory was transferred to social inventory or quickly destocked through long-term contracts and spot orders. Due to relatively strong demand from downstream industrial and investment sectors after the holiday, domestic social inventory recorded only a modest accumulation.

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices continued to rise, with the increase expanding. The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price climbed from 152,000 yuan/mt on Tuesday (February 24) to 173,000 yuan/mt on Thursday (February 26), a cumulative rise of 21,000 yuan/mt over three trading days; the industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price also increased from 148,500 yuan/mt to 169,500 yuan/mt, with the same 21,000 yuan/mt gain. The key catalyst driving the accelerated price rise this week stemmed from sudden policy changes in major lithium resource-supplying countries. On Wednesday (February 25), Zimbabwe, the world's fourth-largest lithium resource producer, announced through its Ministry of Mines that it would immediately suspend all exports of lithium concentrates and raw ore (including goods in transit), allowing only enterprises with valid mining rights and approved beneficiation plants to apply for export qualifications. This move aimed to strengthen mineral regulation, combat illegal export activities, and promote the localization of the lithium industry chain. Affected by this unexpected event, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract surged by 12% intraday on Thursday, reaching a high of 187,700 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the spot market transactions remained sluggish, with a clear divergence in sentiment between upstream and downstream players. Overall, upstream lithium chemical plants showed a strong reluctance to sell, with a low willingness to ship spot orders, and some enterprises made limited shipments at relatively high futures levels; downstream material plants maintained a cautious stance, adhering to just-in-time procurement, with most enterprises sticking to a strategy of restocking at lower prices, showing little interest in chasing higher prices. Overall, despite the rapid price surge, market inquiries and actual transactions still appeared sluggish.

[Post-holiday silicon metal market activity gradually recovers; focus on operating rate changes on both supply and demand sides]: During the first workweek after the Chinese New Year holiday, downstream users of silicon metal mainly inquired about prices, with only small volumes of rigid demand restocking transactions concluded. Trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market quoted prices actively, while silicon enterprises mostly maintained stable offers and adopted a wait-and-see stance compared to pre-holiday levels. As of February 26, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, #441 silicon at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, and #3303 silicon at 10,200-10,400 yuan/mt. On the export front, overseas users showed active inquiry performance after the holiday, but export order prices remained involutionary. In the futures market, the most-traded contract weakened on Thursday afternoon, closing at 8,335 yuan/mt at the end of the session. Throughout the week, the most-traded contract moved within a range of 8,330-8,495 yuan/mt. Most silicon enterprises maintained strong wait-and-see sentiment with stable offers, while futures consolidated at lows and trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market quoted actively, resulting in on-demand transactions in the market.