[SMM Analysis: China’s Aluminum Foil Exports Edged Down 0.74% YoY in January-February, Geopolitical Conflicts Disrupted the Middle East Trade Chain] According to customs data, China’s total aluminum foil exports in January-February 2026 (tariff codes 76071110, 76071120, 76071190, 76071900, 76072000) reached 214,800 mt, down 0.74% YoY from 2025, of which exports were 121,100 mt in January, up 2% YoY, and 93,700 mt in February, down 4% YoY.

[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

According to customs data, China’s exports of bismuth trioxide in January 2026 were 677.56 mt, versus 570.97 mt in December 2025, showing a clear MoM increase. Market participants said that, judging from the overall changes in exports, China’s bismuth oxide exports had trended upward in almost every month since September 2025, indicating that bismuth oxide enterprises still maintained strong export momentum and that demand outside China was also increasing significantly.

According to customs data, China’s bismuth trioxide exports were 753.74 mt in February 2026, versus 677.56 mt in January 2026, continuing to increase MoM. Looking at the overall change in exports, since September 2025, China’s bismuth oxide exports had risen almost every month, indicating that bismuth oxide enterprises still had strong export willingness and demand outside China was also increasing significantly. Market participants believed that although February was affected by the relatively long Chinese New Year holiday, exports still continued to rise, so there was a strong likelihood that China’s bismuth trioxide exports would continue to increase in March.

On March 14, 2026, the Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade of Ukraine issued a notice stating that, pursuant to Resolution No. AD-598/2026/441-01 of the Commission dated March 10, 2026, it had made an affirmative final ruling in the third sunset review of the antidumping measures on steel wire ropes and cables originating in China, and decided to continue imposing antidumping duties on the products concerned for another five years at an unchanged rate of 123. The period of investigation in this case was from January 1, 2022 to March 31, 2025. The Ukrainian tariff codes of the products concerned were 7312 10 49 00, 7312 10 81 00, 7312 10 83 00, 7312 10 98 00, and 7312 10 65 00. The measures took effect from the date of publication of the notice. On August 17, 2007, Ukraine initiated an antidumping investigation into steel wire ropes and cables originating in China. On July 23, 2008, pursuant to Resolution No. AD-183/2008/143-48 of the Ukrainian Commission, Ukraine began imposing antidumping duties on the Chinese products concerned. Thereafter, Ukraine conducted two sunset reviews, and made affirmative rulings and extended the duty period on September 19, 2014 and May 28, 2020, respectively. On August 24, 2022, the Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade of Ukraine issued a notice amending the product description of Chinese steel wire ropes and cables as determined in Resolution No. AD-183/2008/143-48 dated July 23, 2008. Upon application by a Ukrainian producer, and pursuant to Resolution No. AD-582/2025/441-01 of the Commission dated May 21, 2025, Ukraine initiated the third sunset review investigation of the antidumping measures on the Chinese products concerned. (Compiled from: Ukrainian Government Website) Source: https://ukurier.gov.ua/uk/news/povidomlennya-201/

Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.