Outlook: Prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in Shanghai are expected to operate steadily with a slight upward bias next week.

Market Overview According to SMM data, during the first trading week following the Lunar New Year holiday (February 24 – February 27, 2026), the dominant stainless steel contract (SS2604) opened high and maintained a strong trend, driven by significantly rising raw material costs. By the close on February 27, the contract price had climbed to 14,150 CNY/mt ($2,065.69/mt) , an increase of 385 CNY/mt ($56.20/mt) or +2.80% compared to the pre-holiday closing price of 13,765 CNY/mt ($2,009.49/mt) . In the early post-holiday period, the market's upward logic was primarily dominated by rising costs on the supply side. However, as the price center shifted upward rapidly, the substantial accumulation of social inventory during the holiday formed a tangible suppression on the upside potential. Consequently, futures prices maintained a fluctuating struggle within the 14,100–14,200 CNY ($2,058.39–$2,072.99) range. Macroeconomic Analysis From a macro perspective, the market is navigating an interplay between reasonably ample domestic liquidity and uncertainties regarding overseas trade policies. Domestic: On February 25, the central bank conducted a 600 billion CNY ($87.59 billion) one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation. This continued to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, providing macro support for the traditional "Golden March and Silver April" peak consumption season and stabilizing market expectations. Overseas: The U.S. Trade Representative stated they would continue to advance the Section 301 investigation regarding the Phase One trade agreement, with proposals to raise "global import tariff" rates from 10% to 15% or higher. Potential tariff changes have intensified uncertainty in the external macro environment, which may have a negative impact on future export expectations for stainless steel and related end-products. Fundamentals: Inventory & Demand Fundamentally, the post-holiday market faces the reality of a massive inventory buildup while end-user demand is still in a recovery phase. Inventory: Latest SMM data shows that, due to the long Spring Festival holiday, social inventory significantly increased to 1.0161 million tons this week. This is an increase of 121,600 tons compared to the pre-holiday level of 894,500 tons , breaching the one-million-ton mark. Spot Transactions: The market is currently in a gradual restart phase. Downstream processing factories have not yet fully resumed work, and current spot circulation is mostly concentrated on resource allocation between traders. The end-market's actual ability to digest current high-priced resources remains to be verified after enterprises fully resume work next week. Sentiment: In the short term, high inventory levels pose significant pressure on prices. However, supported by expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, holders' sentiment remains temporarily stable, with no large-scale sell-offs observed. Cost Analysis The significant strengthening of the cost side was the core driver for the high market opening this week. Driven by news of tighter Indonesian nickel ore quotas and fluctuating rises in nickel prices post-holiday, there is a strong willingness to support prices on the raw material side. High-grade Nickel Pig Iron (NPI): As of February 27, quotes were raised significantly, rising by 33.5 CNY ($4.89) in a single week to 1,085 CNY/nickel point ($158.39/nickel point) . High Carbon Ferrochrome: Prices remained temporarily stable at 8,550 CNY/50 basis tons ($1,248.18/50 basis tons) . The expectation of tight ore supply materialized quickly after the holiday, substantially raising the immediate production costs for steel mills. The upward shift in the cost center effectively limited the room for market correction and forced a passive, steady rise in the center of spot transaction prices. Outlook & Strategy Overall, the stainless steel market in the first week after the holiday presented a tug-of-war pattern: "Strong Expectations & High Costs" vs. "Weak Reality & High Inventory." While the sharp rise in NPI prices established a tone for a strong fluctuating market, the social inventory exceeding one million tons—coupled with end-user demand that has yet to kick in—constrained further upside potential. Looking ahead to next week, the market trading logic will gradually shift from "sentiment-driven" to "fundamental verification." Short-term: Futures prices are expected to maintain a strong fluctuation at high levels. Medium-to-long-term: The trend will depend on the actual realization of demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season after downstream sectors fully resume work. Industrial clients are advised to closely monitor the inventory inflection point (destocking) and actual spot transaction conditions next week. Carefully assess the risks of chasing highs and reasonably utilize hedging tools to manage exposure.

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include the US February ISM Manufacturing PMI, US February ADP employment figures, and China's official February Manufacturing PMI; additionally, the US Fed will release the Beige Book. Meanwhile, overseas geopolitical tensions remain prominent, with uncertainties in US-Iran conflicts fueling strong market risk-off sentiment. On the LME lead front, overseas lead inventory surged by over 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year holiday. Although stocks declined post-holiday, the high inventory base continued to significantly suppress lead prices, preventing them from breaking above $2,000/mt. Recently, widespread power outages in the US due to winter storms boosted heating demand, driving natural gas prices higher. This, to some extent, increased smelting costs for lead ore and lead ingots, providing short-term support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,950-2,000/mt next week. For SHFE lead, post-holiday inventory buildup in the lead market was severe, with stocks rising simultaneously at smelters and social warehouses, becoming a major drag on prices. Notably, scrap battery prices rose steadily after the holiday, widening losses for secondary lead producers and prompting some smelters to delay resumption plans, which will ease future lead ingot inventory pressure. Meanwhile, as downstream enterprises resume operations, focus will be on lead consumption recovery digesting lead inventories. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is forecast to fluctuate between 16,650-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-17,500 yuan/mt. Next week, lead-acid battery enterprises are expected to largely resume production, and with pre-holiday lead ingot inventories gradually being consumed, rigid demand restocking is anticipated. On the supply side, secondary lead smelters delayed resumption and face significant losses, limiting spot discounts for secondary refined lead. For primary lead, supplies will re-enter the market after delivery next week, and with high smelter inventories, spot discounts may widen.

[SMM Analysis] Significant Accumulation of HRC in Ningbo After the Holiday, Slow Demand Recovery Drags on Transactions According to the SMM survey, in the first week after the holiday, the large-aperture inventory of SMM HRC in Ningbo was 492,000 mt (as of February 25), up 114,000 mt WoW from the week before the holiday. This week, HRC futures first rose and then fell, with spot prices falling by 10-30 yuan/mt WoW from the period before the holiday, and transaction performance was relatively poor during the week. As of the afternoon close on February 27, the most-traded HRC 2605 futures contract closed at 3,215 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, according to the SMM survey, in the Ningbo spot trading market this week, in terms of prices, as of the afternoon of February 27, spot offers closed at 3,230-3,240 yuan/mt, with prices falling by 10 yuan/mt WoW from February 13 during the week. In terms of transactions, the recovery pace of downstream procurement demand after the holiday fell short of expectations, with overall transactions being relatively poor. Even when futures rose mid-week, it was difficult to achieve transactions when spot prices followed the adjustment. In terms of arrivals, the shipping pace of mainstream resources was normal, with an increase in DDH arrivals, so the extent of inventory accumulation was slightly higher than expected. Looking ahead, with logistics returning to normal, inventories will gradually decline, but given the current slow recovery in demand, the decline is not expected to be overly optimistic, and it is anticipated to gradually expand over the next 2-3 weeks. This week, SMM released its weekly HRC balance data, showing an MoM increase in HRC production. This week, SMM statistics showed that the total social inventory of HRC in 86 warehouses (large sample) across the country was 5.3775 million mt, up 1.1404 million mt from the period before the holiday and up 31.57% YoY on the lunar calendar. By region, the markets with significant accumulation were in southern China, eastern China, and northern China. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[SMM Analysis] Holiday Stability in Overseas Prices, Divergent Trading Performance HRC prices in Thailand and Malaysia mostly held steady. As the holidays largely coincided with those in the domestic market and shipments were affected by the Chinese New Year, overall transaction activity remained relatively weak. The galvanizing market in Thailand performed moderately, but due to low-priced resources capturing market share, downstream shipments were somewhat impacted, leaving limited room for price increases. Influenced by factors such as Ramadan, HRC trading in Indonesia also trended toward mediocrity, while overseas export offers remained stable amid a wait-and-see stance. However, supported by government policies promoting increased use of domestically produced steel in the local shipbuilding industry, medium and long-term demand for sheets & plates in Indonesia is expected to remain relatively optimistic.The Black Sea market recently exhibited overall calm, with FOB offers for HRC exports pulling back slightly compared to pre-holiday levels. Although some routine transactions were concluded, overall market activity remained sluggish. Despite tight spot supply in the domestic Indian HRC market, it remains range-bound due to weak overall procurement demand, lacking momentum for price increases. Turkish HRC export offers have seen slight increases, following the price hike trend among European producers. European and US markets face strong policy and cost disruptions: although the US Supreme Court overturned some previously imposed tariffs by the president, the subsequent announcement of new global tariffs of up to 15% has sharply heightened market risk aversion. In European markets such as Italy, steel mills are leading ex-factory price increases against a backdrop of tight spot supply. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, China’s manganese tetroxide market maintained a weak tone, characterized by sluggish trading, stable prices, and stalemated supply and demand. On the cost side, electrolytic manganese prices bottomed out at low levels with limited upward momentum. On the demand side, lithium manganate producers had completed pre-holiday restocking and focused on inventory digestion.