[SMM Analysis:Rare Earth Ore Imports Surge in Early 2026, Exceeding Demand and Causing Surplus] According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2026, China’s imports of mixed rare earth carbonate were about 3,013.7 mt, up 321% YoY. Over the same period, imports of unlisted rare earth oxides were about 12,860.4 mt, also posting a sharp increase of 209% YoY.

This week, the rare earth market outside China showed a divergent pattern of “cerium up, the rest down.” Driven by price increases in China and rising ocean freight rates, cerium oxide FOB and CIF prices rose by $55/mt and $60/mt, respectively, while FOB offers for mainstream magnetic material raw materials such as praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium were generally lowered by $3-19.5/kg due to lower prices in China and tight supply caused by export controls. Although limited trading volumes supported premiums in markets outside China, expectations of an industrial slowdown in Europe triggered by the Middle East situation may suppress subsequent demand. On industry developments, Lynas’ Malaysia plant started samarium oxide production ahead of schedule, consolidating its position as the only commercial heavy rare earth separator outside China and advancing its 2030 strategy. In Australia, Terrain discovered high-grade magnetic rare earth ore intervals during drilling at its Western Australia project, highlighting significant resource potential.

【SMM Analysis】As of this week, the weekly net profit of Pr-Nd alloy reached 36,812.4 yuan, with a net margin of 4.1%. Compared with last week, net profit increased 134%, setting a new profit high for the past nearly two years. The main reasons behind this were the decline in raw material costs and relatively high metal quotes.

SMM News: As of March 20, 2026, the market price for Praseodymium-Neodymium (Pr-Nd) metal in China stabilized temporarily at 890,000–910,000 RMB/ton. This article utilizes the SMM Pr-Nd Terminal Demand Calculation Model to dissect the demand logic for 2026 across three core sectors—New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles, and Wind Power—explaining the current supply-demand dilemma facing the NdFeB magnet and broader Pr-Nd markets.

According to customs data, China’s exports of bismuth trioxide in January 2026 were 677.56 mt, versus 570.97 mt in December 2025, showing a clear MoM increase. Market participants said that, judging from the overall changes in exports, China’s bismuth oxide exports had trended upward in almost every month since September 2025, indicating that bismuth oxide enterprises still maintained strong export momentum and that demand outside China was also increasing significantly.

According to customs data, China’s bismuth trioxide exports were 753.74 mt in February 2026, versus 677.56 mt in January 2026, continuing to increase MoM. Looking at the overall change in exports, since September 2025, China’s bismuth oxide exports had risen almost every month, indicating that bismuth oxide enterprises still had strong export willingness and demand outside China was also increasing significantly. Market participants believed that although February was affected by the relatively long Chinese New Year holiday, exports still continued to rise, so there was a strong likelihood that China’s bismuth trioxide exports would continue to increase in March.

[US Fed Held Rates Unchanged, SHFE and LME Centers Continued to Move Lower This Week] At the beginning of the week, the market was heavily affected by geopolitical disruptions, with strong wait-and-see sentiment, and LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend; subsequently, from a fundamental perspective, inventories outside China accumulated sharply, compounded by the escalation of the Middle East conflict, and market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled significantly, putting LME zinc under pressure and driving it lower......

[Zinc Price Center Rose, Focus on Subsequent Macro Changes] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 22,875 yuan/mt. After the opening, bulls added to open interest and pushed SHFE zinc up to 23,110 yuan/mt. During the session, bulls reduced open interest and SHFE zinc fell to a low of 22,840 yuan/mt. Near the close, bulls exerted strength again, driving prices to rebound slightly. It finally closed up at 22,935 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan/mt, or 0.33%. Trading volume decreased to 66,161 lots, and open interest increased by 664 lots to 106,000 lots.....

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Rebounded and Fluctuated Around 7.4]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio rebounded and fluctuated around 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, geopolitical disruptions were frequent. After the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the market bet on a US Fed rate hike, and LME zinc fell below key levels. Subsequently, bearish factors were gradually digested, and LME zinc rebounded from lows.

[Australian Typhoons Continued to Disrupt, and Import TCs Kept Falling]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly domestic SMM Zn50 TC held flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell $6.02/dmt MoM to $5.23/dmt...