[Monthly Refined Zinc Import Data] According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports were 24,100 mt in January 2026 and 4,500 mt in February, with cumulative imports of 28,600 mt from January to February, down 61% YoY.

As of February 12, 2026, LME zinc ingot inventory continued to decline to 103,500 mt, while the LME Cash-3M contango narrowed from over $40/mt in January to below $20/mt. At the same time, due to the Chinese New Year holiday, many downstream zinc enterprises suspended operations, leading to a continued buildup in domestic zinc ingot inventory to over 160,000 mt.

[Import Window Opens in May, Refined Zinc Imports Remain High] According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in April 2025 reached 28,200 mt, up 600 mt or 2.4% MoM, and down 38.66% YoY. The cumulative refined zinc imports from January to April 2025 were 129,200 mt, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.44%. In April 2025, refined zinc exports were 2,500 mt, resulting in a net import of 25,700 mt of refined zinc for the month.

Data from the Customs Statistics Online Query Platform showed that China's refined zinc imports in March 2025 stood at 27,568.473 mt, down 18.12% MoM and 40.50% YoY. Kazakhstan was the top supplier, with refined zinc imports from the country totaling 12,871.239 mt, down 7.75% MoM and 22.38% YoY. Australia was the second-largest supplier, with refined zinc imports from the country reaching 6,641.931 mt, down 57.24% MoM and 57.02% YoY. Below is a breakdown of refined zinc imports in March 2025 based on data from the General Administration of Customs of China: Note: Refined zinc includes unwrought non-alloy zinc with a zinc content ≥99.995%, unwrought non-alloy zinc with a zinc content between 99.99% and 99.995%, and unwrought non-alloy zinc with a zinc content below 99.99%.

On Monday, the most-traded SHFE zinc ZN2506 contract rebounded during the day but was in the doldrums at night, while LME zinc was closed. Spot market: The mainstream transaction prices of 0# zinc in Shanghai were concentrated at 22,500-22,620 yuan/mt, with a premium of 150 yuan/mt against the 2505 contract. As the long-term contract approached its end, there were few traders in the market, and downstream users had certain inventories, purchasing only for rigid demand. Spot transactions did not improve, and the premium continued to decline. SMM: As of Monday, social inventory was 93,000 mt, down 7,000 mt WoW from last Thursday. Customs data: Zinc concentrate imports in March were 35.95 mt, down 22.09% MoM but up 47.16% YoY. Refined zinc imports in March were 27,500 mt, down 18.12% MoM and 40.5% YoY. Overall, tariff negotiations made no substantial progress, and the new US president pressured Powell, increasing market concerns and putting pressure on zinc prices. March zinc ore imports met expectations, while zinc ingot imports slightly exceeded expectations. Refineries had ample raw materials, and supply increases were steadily realized. The peak consumption season supported downstream buying the dip, and inventory dropped to 93,000 mt, with low inventory supporting a weak rebound in zinc prices in the short term. As the rush for export orders was digested and the peak season approached its end, later consumption support was expected to weaken, and the sustainability of the zinc price rebound was insufficient.

【Intermittent Opening of Import Window in April Expected to Increase Refined Zinc Imports】According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in March 2025 were 27,500 mt, down 6,100 mt or 18.12% MoM, and down 40.5% YoY. From January to March, the cumulative imports of refined zinc were 100,900 mt, up YoY...

【Copper】 SHFE copper surged and then retreated from above 82,000 yuan on Wednesday. Spot copper was at 82,655 yuan today, with a discount in Shanghai and a narrowing to 130 yuan/mt in Guangdong. Overseas investment banks have significant differences in their views on next week's tariffs. SHFE copper shows signs of short-term adjustment, but the pullback is expected to be limited during the peak season, with mid- and downstream players pricing on demand. 【Aluminum & Alumina】 SHFE aluminum continued to fluctuate today, with spot prices maintaining a slight discount. Over the past week, social inventories of aluminum ingots and billets decreased by 35,000 mt and 13,000 mt, respectively, with apparent demand slightly stronger than expected. The market anticipates peak season consumption, but spot feedback remains tepid, and aluminum billet processing fees remain low. After a significant cost reduction, higher profits require a larger deficit expectation. In the short term, SHFE aluminum faces resistance at 21,000 yuan, with support at the low of the recent one-month range of 20,500 yuan, suggesting a sideways movement. Alumina operating capacity fluctuates at historically high levels, with expanded production cuts and maintenance failing to alter the long-term loose trend. Miners show strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, with Guinea ore still at $90. As some northern alumina companies face cash cost losses, the decline in spot alumina may slow before ore prices loosen further, with limited upside for futures, focusing on resistance at the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. 【Zinc】 Overseas fundamental data continues to improve, supporting LME zinc's stronger performance compared to the domestic market, with spot zinc imports at a loss of over 1,500 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc fluctuates at high levels, with downstream players cautious and some traders lowering premiums to sell. The market awaits the outcome of the new US tariffs on April 2, with overseas zinc consumption under pressure and domestic consumption not exceeding expectations. Long and short funds are battling around 24,200 yuan/mt, with zinc concentrate TCs rebounding from lows. Domestic smelters have turned profitable, and expectations for production increases are strong, but SHFE zinc lacks rebound momentum. However, with the benchmark TC negotiation results pending, cost side and downstream rigid demand still provide support below, suggesting SHFE zinc will likely fluctuate between 23,500-24,200 yuan/mt. 【Lead】 LME lead continued to consolidate, with the spot import window remaining closed. The spread between futures and spot prices is 215 yuan/mt, still unfavorable for SHFE warrant outflows, passively strengthening regional tightness in lead ingot supply, with relatively loose supply in South China. Secondary refined lead suppliers follow the market, with mainstream sources at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM 1# lead average price, with larger discounts in Hunan, at a discount of 150 yuan/mt against the SMM 0# zinc average price. Battery replacement demand weakens, with slow inventory digestion by dealers. Battery companies maintain promotional efforts, and some plan to take holidays at month-end to avoid inventory buildup. SHFE lead lacks further upward momentum, with short-term focus on resistance near 17,880 yuan/mt. 【Nickel & Stainless Steel】 SHFE nickel's rebound met resistance, with active market trading. Jinchuan's premium rebounded to 2,000 yuan, while Russian nickel is at a discount of 25 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel at a discount of 100 yuan. High-grade NPI prices remain strong, with Indonesian ore still influencing raw material pricing, with the latest quote at 1,027 yuan per mtu. In terms of inventory, NPI inventory dropped by 6,000 mt to 23,000 mt, refined nickel inventory fell by 1,900 mt to 47,000 mt, and stainless steel inventory slightly decreased to 990,000 mt. After the price drop, NPI remains the main support on the cost side, with strong support estimated near 130,000 yuan. Technically, SHFE nickel has not weakened yet, waiting for short opportunities to mature. 【Tin】 SHFE tin traded between 275,000-280,000 yuan during the daytime session, with Wa State continuing to arrange resumption of production. Spot tin was at 278,200 yuan today, with attention on LME tin inventory and premium/discount changes in the evening. SHFE tin has been recommended for mid- and downstream players to price on demand near 275,000 yuan this week. In the context of supply being more easily priced quickly, it is recommended to focus more on the demand side, with 280,000-285,000 yuan considered the high-price zone.

Refined Zinc Imports Exceed Expectations at the Start of 2025, Will the Trend Continue? According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in January 2025 were 39,700 mt, up 4,600 mt MoM and up 14,600 mt YoY. Refined zinc exports in January were 4,800 mt, resulting in a net import of 34,900 mt for the month. In February, refined zinc imports were 33,700 mt, down 6,100 mt or 15% MoM, but up 8,500 mt YoY. Cumulative refined zinc imports from January-February reached 73,400 mt, up 45.88% YoY. Refined zinc exports in February were 400 mt, leading to a net import of 33,300 mt for the month.

Refined Zinc Imports Exceed Expectations at the Start of 2025, Will the Trend Continue? According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in January 2025 were 39,700 mt, up 4,600 mt MoM and up 14,600 mt YoY. Refined zinc exports in January were 4,800 mt, resulting in a net import of 34,900 mt for the month. In February, refined zinc imports were 33,700 mt, down 6,100 mt or 15% MoM, and up 8,500 mt YoY. Cumulative refined zinc imports for January-February were 73,400 mt, up 45.88% YoY. Refined zinc exports in February were 400 mt, leading to a net import of 33,300 mt for the month.

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Continued to Fluctuate Around 8.3]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio remained fluctuating around 8.3, and the zinc ingot import window was closed. From the overseas market perspective, the US retail sales monthly rate for January 2025 recorded -0.9%, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year, indicating weak consumption...