[SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash] In May, the top five export destinations for copper wire rod were Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia, together accounting for over 70%. Thailand benefited from robust infrastructure and PV demand, along with enterprise restocking, with shipments remaining strong; India’s exports pulled back significantly, and its ranking fell to eighth.

[India] Raipur billet index fell by around 1 USD/tonne to about 451 USD/tonne EXW, as buyers slowed fresh procurement after sufficient bookings in the previous session. Weak enquiries and softer sentiment in neighbouring markets kept spot trading limited. Rebar and wire rod prices stayed stable, while sponge iron eased by around 1 USD/tonne. The PDRI-to-billet conversion spread stood at about 171 USD/tonne."

[SEA] Indonesian billet offers edged lower by around 2 USD/tonne to about 478 USD/tonne FOB Indonesia, as cheaper China-origin billet at around 462 USD/tonne FOB continued to pressure regional export competitiveness. Indonesian wire rod offers were largely stable at around 497–498 USD/tonne FOB, though buying interest remained limited. ASEAN buyers stayed cautious amid sluggish downstream demand, with most continuing to benchmark against lower-priced Chinese material before committing to fresh bookings.

The EU's new steel trade regime (Regulation 2026/1384) applies from 1 July 2026, replacing the 2019 safeguard that expires 30 June and lifting the out-of-quota duty to 50% from 25%. Within an 18.35 million-tonne total annual tariff-rate quota, stainless gets category-specific caps: cold-rolled sheets and strips 496,342 t, hot-rolled sheets and strips 153,186 t, hot-rolled quarto plate 17,025 t, bars and light sections 133,595 t, wire rod 40,462 t, and seamless tubes and pipes 32,967 t—about 873,577 t of stainless in total. Quotas run 1 July–30 June and are administered quarterly. Once a category's quota fills, further imports face the 50% duty, double the prior 25% penalty, tightening access for non-EU stainless.

[Steel Mill Price Adjustment] On June 25, Shougang Group Changzhi adjusted construction steel prices: rebar, coiled rebar, and high-speed wire rod prices remain temporarily stable. [SMM Steel]

In May, total exports of copper wire rod (HS codes 74081100 and 74081900) edged down slightly MoM, showing a YoY increase but a MoM decrease. Specific data are as follows: According to customs statistics, total exports of copper wire rod (HS codes 74081100, 74081900) in May decreased 0.47% MoM to 30,400 mt, up 79.72% YoY. Exports of copper cathode wire with maximum cross-sectional dimension greater than 6mm were 19,600 mt, up 18.09% MoM and 116.25% YoY. Monthly exports of other copper cathode wire were 10,800 mt, down 22.61% MoM but up 37.42% YoY. In May 2026, exports of copper wire rod (HS code 74081100, 74081900) stabilized. On the one hand, domestic copper rod processing enterprises continued to expand their overseas channels, with export orders providing stable support; on the other hand, copper prices fluctuated within a limited range in May, and downstream demand outside China remained stable during the period. These multiple factors combined to drive steady export performance in May. In terms of specific trade modes, in May 2026, exports under processing trade with imported materials accounted for 59.87% of total copper wire rod exports, those under processing trade with supplied materials accounted for 34.86%, entrepot trade by customs special control area accounted for 3.75%, and ordinary trade exports accounted for 1.5%. By country, the top five export destinations for China’s copper wire rod in May were Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia, together accounting for over 70% of total exports. Among them, Thailand saw robust demand from the infrastructure, PV, and electronics manufacturing sectors, while China’s copper rod enterprises continued to deepen their presence in Southeast Asian export markets; this was further supported by stable copper prices in May, prompting some enterprises to restock and purchase in bulk. India’s exports declined significantly in May, pulling back to eighth place. In summary, China's copper rod exports stabilized overall in May 2026. Domestic processing enterprises continued to build overseas export channels, and relatively small copper price fluctuations during the month, combined with generally stable downstream demand outside China, jointly kept export volumes largely free of significant volatility. Entering June, overseas end-use demand steadied, and China's capacity to secure export orders continued to strengthen, supporting a slight MoM increase in exports. However, constrained by high-level copper price fluctuations and substitution by overseas local capacity, upside room was limited, and the overall stabilization continued.

Vedanta-owned Bharat Aluminium Company Limited (BALCO) highlighted the importance of its aluminium wire rod business in supporting India’s power transmission, distribution and infrastructure sectors. Produced at BALCO’s Korba facility in Chhattisgarh, the electrical-grade aluminium wire rods are supplied to cable and conductor manufacturers for use in power lines, electrical networks and industrial applications. The company offers both conductor-grade and specialty alloy wire rods for applications ranging from building cables to high-voltage transmission systems. As India continues expanding its power grid and renewable energy capacity, demand for aluminium conductors and cables is expected to grow steadily. BALCO’s integrated production model, covering alumina, primary aluminium and finished wire rods, helps ensure product quality and supply stability. However, the business remains exposed to fluctuations in aluminium prices, energy costs and competition from domestic and international suppliers.

[SMM Analysis] Overseas HRC prices Declined More Than Chinese Prices; Overall Procurement Demand Continued to Weaken Passive Contraction in China–Foreign HRC Price Spreads and Blocked Export Channels Price spread models showed entirely diverging trends. Steel billet price spreads were relatively stable, while HRC spreads continued to contract. The China–India HRC spread, after a streak of declines in mid-June, recently plunged to -36, an all-time low in the table. This figure was not only far above the quarterly average of -65, but also well below the current monthly average of -49. The root cause is not a sharp slide in Chinese export prices, but rather extremely weak Indian domestic demand. To defend their domestic market share and digest surplus production, local steel mills in India adopted a highly aggressive "defensive price-slashing" strategy. Meanwhile, given the domestic supply-demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand, there is still room for further downside in Indian domestic steel prices in the near term, and the China–India spread will hover at lows. Data source: SMM Monsoon Rains Suppressed Downstream Demand; Indian Steel Market Was in the Doldrums Weighed down by the traditional demand off-season due to the monsoon rainy season and generally very cautious purchasing attitudes among buyers, Indian long steel prices remained under pressure last week. Rebar EXW prices dropped notably to around $630/mt EXW, hitting the lowest level since May. In contrast, Raipur billet showed slightly more resilience, with prices edging up about $2/mt to around $453/mt EXW. This was mainly supported by a boost from earlier transactions and short-term support from buoyant sentiment in surrounding markets, though current spot procurement remained cautious and restrained. Notably, Chhattisgarh has planned to raise electricity prices, which is expected to push up the production cost of electric furnace billet by about $3–4/mt starting in July, providing some cost support. Overall, the Indian steel market will continue to face a mix of weak demand and cost support in the near term, and prices are expected to remain on a weak fluctuating trend. Off-Season Suppressed Rigid Demand and Shipping Disrupted: Southeast Asian Steel Market Stayed in the Doldrums Short-Term Due to seasonal factors, construction activity rates in core Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand have recently been low, directly limiting the release of rigid demand for long products like rebar and wire rod. Currently, major local mills' rebar EXW prices in Southeast Asia were generally weak, ranging between $520–535/mt EXW. Meanwhile, due to persistently subdued sentiment in end-user buying, destocking in the market remained relatively slow. Facing the current weak market, most buyers chose to wait and see, with purchasing strategies mostly centered on "purchasing as needed and buying just enough for immediate use." Additionally, stimulated by progress in US–Iran negotiations and news that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen, buyers in the Southeast Asian market grew more expectant of a pullback in ocean freight rates. Driven by the desire to "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn," this expectation further amplified the market's bearish and wait-and-see sentiment. Still, the actual easing of shipping pressures stemming from geopolitical issues will take some time, and international freight rates are expected to remain mainly high and volatile in the short term. New Quotas Taking Effect on 1 July Prompted Full Buyer Wait-and-See; European HRC Trading Mediocre, Import Offers Weakened MoM Last week, the overall European steel market was relatively mediocre, with sellers and buyers locked in deep standoffs ahead of the policy window period, and both spot and import markets were subdued: In Germany, mainstream transaction prices for HRC with August–September delivery remained at €680–700/mt EXW. In Italy, mainstream transaction prices for HRC with July–August delivery were at €670–680/mt EXW. Most European buyers generally chose to refrain from booking and are fully waiting for the new import quota system that will officially take effect on 1 July. End-users and traders are eager to assess the actual restrictive impact of the new policy on future import volumes in order to readjust their procurement strategies. At the same time, hit by a double blow from sluggish European domestic demand and uncertainty over the quota policy, steel import activity in Europe also dropped to a freezing point. At present, HRC offers for August shipment from Turkey and Asia to Europe have pulled back to €640–650/mt DDP. With a lack of buyer support, overseas mills' forward export offers showed clear signs of weakening on a MoM basis. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. 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Turkish wire rod export prices recorded a notable decline to $590–$600 per metric ton FOB, marking a crisp $10/t drop within a single trading block. Concurrently, finished Turkish merchant rebar prices fell to $585–$600 per metric ton FOB. Regional mill managers verified that with international buyers entirely withdrawing from the market ahead of the July 1 import quota restructurings in Europe and the US, long steel manufacturers are facing a total evaporation of foreign bookings, forcing intense price discounting to capture minimal liquidity.

Walsin Lihwa expects Q2 earnings to substantially surpass Q1, with over NT$3.5 billion in gains from selling shares of Winbond and Walton Advanced Engineering set to be recognized in the quarter, contributing more than NT$0.8 per share. Q1 net profit reached NT$3.58 billion, up 428% YoY at NT$0.81 per share. May revenue rose 12.4% MoM to a one-year high of NT$17.46 billion (+11.13% YoY), driven by seven consecutive months of stainless steel price hikes including a NT$3,000/ton increase for 304 wire rods in June. Separately, rising international copper and nickel prices combined with heavy foreign investment drove the company's stock to its NT$37.7 daily limit last Friday (June 12).