SMM News on June 11: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE tin led the gains with a 0.54% increase, while SHFE zinc and SHFE aluminum rose by 0.25%, and SHFE nickel fell by 0.25%. The declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. The main alumina contract fell by 0.24%, and the main casting aluminum contract rose by 0.13%. Most ferrous metals series prices rose, with only stainless steel declining by 0.6%. Iron ore rose by 1%, HRC rose by 0.68%, and coking coal and coke collectively rose by over 1%, with coking coal up by 1.68% and coke up by 1.01%. Overseas market base metals also showed mixed performance. LME copper fell by 0.24%, while LME aluminum and LME lead rose, but with relatively small fluctuations in gains. LME aluminum rose by 0.04%, and LME lead rose by 0.03%. In the overnight precious metals market, COMEX gold fell by 0.3%, and COMEX silver fell by 0.38%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.23%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.43%. As of 8:18 a.m. on June 11, the overnight closing market performance from last Friday 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspects: [The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Further Promoting the Shenzhen Comprehensive Reform Pilot to Deepen Reform, Innovation, and Opening-up"] The Opinions propose to advance the integrated reform of the education, science and technology, and talent systems, strengthen industry-university-research collaboration and deep integration, and improve the support and guarantee mechanisms for overseas talent recruitment. The Opinions also propose to promote the high-quality development of the real economy through empowerment by finance, technology, data, etc., establish a new system for a higher-level open economy, and improve a scientific, refined, and rule-of-law governance model. US Dollar Aspects: The US dollar index rose by 0.03% overnight to close at 99.05, as the market awaited the outcome of trade negotiations between China and the US. This week, investors' focus will be on the US May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to be released on Wednesday. Before the US Fed's policy meeting next week, investors are vigilant for any signs of intensifying inflation, and this report may provide clues on the impact of tariffs. It is expected that the US Fed will also keep interest rates unchanged next week. Traders anticipate nearly two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each before the end of the year. Other Currency Aspects: The British pound declined against the US dollar due to weak UK employment data indicating a sluggish labour market. At the New York close, the US dollar rose by 0.2% against the Japanese yen to close at 144.92 yen. The US dollar has fallen by about 8.5% against the yen since the beginning of the year. During the market turmoil triggered by Trump's tariffs, the yen has generally benefited from net safe-haven capital flows. In the three months ending April, UK wages rose by 5.2%, slower than expected, pushing the British pound down 0.4% against the US dollar to $1.3496. The Bank of England will hold a meeting next week and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Money market traders anticipate around 48 basis points of interest rate cuts by the end of the year, up from 39 basis points before the data release. The euro was flat against the US dollar at $1.1420, while the Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for risk sentiment, changed relatively little, trading at $0.6519. Data highlights: Today, China's M2 money supply annual rate for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), China's total social financing for the year to date as of May (time uncertain between June 11-17), China's new yuan loans for the year to date as of May (time uncertain between June 11-17), the US May CPI annual rate (unadjusted), the US May core CPI annual rate (unadjusted), the US May energy CPI annual rate (unadjusted), the US June IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), and Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending June 8 will be released. In addition, He Lifeng visited the UK from June 8 to 13 and held the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism. Crude oil update: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell, with US crude down 0.84% and Brent crude down 0.66%. US crude remained near a seven-week high as investors monitored progress in China-US economic and trade consultations. A survey found that OPEC's oil production increase in May was lower than planned, as Iraq further cut production to make up for earlier overproduction, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE also increased production by less than their quotas. According to CCTV News, on June 10 local time, the European Commission officially unveiled a draft of the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, primarily targeting Russia's energy revenues and banking sector, including restrictions on Russia's Nord Stream natural gas pipeline and adding more Russian banks to the sanctions list. The draft also proposes lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil from $60 per barrel to $45 per barrel. EU member states will begin discussing the draft this week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that US crude oil production will decline next year as falling commodity prices force drillers to reduce rig counts faster than expected. The EIA said US crude oil production will fall from about 13.42 million barrels per day this year to about 13.37 million barrels per day in 2026. Previously, the EIA had expected US production to increase to 13.49 million barrels per day next year. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed that US crude oil inventories fell last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose. The report showed that as of the week ending June 6, US crude oil inventories fell by 370,000 barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 3 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels. Analysts had previously forecast that US crude oil inventories would fall by 2 million barrels, distillate inventories would increase by approximately 800,000 barrels, and gasoline inventories would increase by 900,000 barrels last week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official weekly US oil inventory data on Wednesday. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

On Monday local time, a survey released by the New York Fed showed that as the tariff war cooled down, US consumers' concerns about inflation eased in May. Specifically, the Survey of Consumer Expectations in May indicated that the one-year inflation expectation was 3.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from a month earlier; the three-year inflation expectation fell from 3.2% in April to 3%; and the five-year inflation expectation dropped from 2.7% to 2.6%. Although these figures remain above the US Fed's annual inflation target of 2%, the changes in these indicators are moving in a positive direction and reflect a shift in the fear sentiment that had previously arisen from Trump's wielding of the tariff stick. In early April, Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports and a series of so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of trading partners. Faced with severe market volatility in financial markets, he then announced a postponement of the reciprocal tariff measures. US Fed officials closely monitor the trend of inflation expectations, as they believe that the public's expectations about inflation can have a strong impact on current levels. If people expect higher prices in the future, they may increase spending now and even demand higher wages. The Fed has repeatedly stated that the relative stability of long-term expectations is one reason they believe inflation will return to the target level. Compared with the survey results from the University of Michigan and the Conference Board, the New York Fed's survey results are less volatile. This survey brought some good news to the White House at a time when US government officials are trying to ease concerns about tariff-induced inflation. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said on Monday that, based on every inflation indicator, the decline exceeded the levels seen in more than four years. "Despite the increase in tariff revenue, inflation is declining, which contradicts what others have been saying but aligns closely with what we have been saying." However, economists generally expect that high tariffs will lead to higher prices for consumers while dampening employment and economic growth. The main question is whether these price increases will be one-time events or have lasting impacts. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," commented that the New York Fed's inflation expectations for May unexpectedly declined, although uncertainty about medium-term inflation expectations remains high. In addition, the survey also showed that consumers believe there is a lower likelihood of unemployment rising next year and that they will have more opportunities to find work if they themselves become unemployed. In May, consumers became more optimistic about their personal financial situations, including a slight improvement in access to credit and a decrease in the likelihood of debt delinquency. However, a report on Monday revealed that one pain point for consumers still persists: grocery store operations. Consumers expect food prices to rise by 0.4 percentage points to 5.5% next year, the highest level since October 2023. Meanwhile, the expected increase in home prices in May was 3%, down from 3.3% in April.

Macro News 1. On June 9, the State Council held its 14th thematic study session on "deepening the reform of the mechanism for the commercialization of scientific and technological achievements, and promoting the integrated development of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation." Premier Li Qiang of the State Council, while presiding over the study session, emphasized the need to thoroughly study and implement the important instructions of General Secretary Xi Jinping and the relevant decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee. Through coordinated efforts in multiple aspects, efforts should be made to break through the bottlenecks in the commercialization of scientific and technological achievements, effectively improve the efficiency of commercialization, and promote innovative development. 2. The first meeting of the China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism was held in London, UK, on the afternoon of June 9 (local time). CCTV News reporters learned that the first meeting of the China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism would continue on June 10 (local time). 3. The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Further Ensuring and Improving People's Livelihoods, and Focusing on Addressing the Urgent, Difficult, Worrisome, and Anticipated Needs of the Masses." Among the proposals are to improve the mechanism for adjusting the minimum wage standard and reasonably raise the minimum wage standard; to improve the mechanism for adjusting the basic medical insurance drug list, formulate and introduce a list of innovative drugs for commercial health insurance, and better meet the multi-level drug security needs of the people; and to promote eligible agricultural migrant populations to enjoy the same rights as the registered permanent residents of the places they move to. 4. Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, presided over a regular press conference yesterday. A reporter asked whether China would open more "green channels" for the approval of rare earth exports. Lin Jian stated that the Ministry of Commerce of China had already responded to China's export control measures on rare earths, and that information could be consulted. Industry News 1. The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology and four other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the High-Quality Development of Beijing's Fashion Industry (2025-2027)," which proposes supporting the launch of trendy portable wearable devices and the development of new products such as artificial intelligence personal computers. It encourages the R&D and launch of high-end new car models with a stronger sense of technology and fashion, and the exploration of overseas markets. 2. It is reported that the financial regulatory authorities in a certain area of the Yangtze River Delta recently issued a notice, clearly stating that banking institutions within their jurisdiction must not absorb deposits by giving physical gifts to customers or cooperating with internet platforms to distribute membership benefits. In case of the above-mentioned situations, the local regulatory authorities require the immediate suspension of the sale of relevant products, the simultaneous removal of promotional and display materials, and the orderly withdrawal of existing businesses by the end of 2025. 3. Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) show that domestic retail sales of passenger NEVs reached 1.021 million units in May, up 28.2% YoY and 12.1% MoM. From January to May, domestic retail sales of passenger NEVs reached 4.351 million units, up 34.1% YoY. 4. The Suzhou Artificial Intelligence Industry Association plans to solicit innovative products and solutions that leverage AI technology to empower the Suzhou football team, aiming to enhance training standards and competitive performance, and support the team in achieving outstanding results in the 2025 Jiangsu Provincial Urban Football League. 5. According to "Guiyang Release", Guiyang has established a joint conference system for the development of the sports industry, forming a collective effort to promote its growth. In terms of financial support, special funds and industrial support policies have been established and utilized to provide assistance to sports products, services, projects, and enterprises that align with the support direction. 6. The Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission recently issued the "Notice on Several Refined Measures to Promote the Development of the Private Economy in the Energy Sector", proposing support for private enterprises to participate in the construction and operation of charging infrastructure. It aims to expand diversified investment and financing models, attracting various types of social capital to participate in charging facility construction through investment attraction and policy support. Corporate News 1. Sugon announced that Hygon Information would absorb and merge Sugon through share exchange, and its stock trading would resume. Hygon Information also announced on the same day that its stock trading would resume. 2. Changshan Pharmaceutical announced that the marketing authorization application for its Ebenatide Injection for type 2 diabetes had been accepted, with uncertainties regarding approval and timing. 3. Vohringer announced abnormal fluctuations in its stock trading and would suspend trading for verification. 4. CECPORT announced that the National Integrated Circuit Fund had recently reduced its stake in the company by 1%. 5. Chow Tai Fook announced its intention to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. 6. In response to media reports that "the company is planning a share transfer", relevant personnel from Hosun Silicon Industry responded to a reporter from China Securities Journal on the afternoon of the 9th, stating that they had never been in contact or negotiations with TBEA or its affiliates regarding share transfer matters. 7. Ruifeng Advanced Materials announced that its senior executive, Zhao Ziyang, was under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected insider trading. 8. SFI said on its interactive platform that its FINNOSafe compliant Web3 platform could support the development of businesses related to stablecoin issuers and market participants. 9. Dexin Technology announced that the sales revenue from molds and products produced by its subsidiary for solid-state battery production accounted for less than 1% of its operating revenue. 10. Yangnong Chemical stated on its interactive platform that Tetrachlorantraniliprole could replace "Chlorantraniliprole" and had good market prospects. 11. EVE announced its intention to issue H shares and list on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. 12. Xinzhu Stock announced plans to acquire a 60% stake in Sichuan Shudao Clean Energy Group Co., Ltd., with trading resuming. 13. Maxinlin announced that its controlling subsidiary signed a computing power service contract worth 1.184 billion yuan. 14. Huasheng Stock announced plans to acquire a 100% stake in Yixin Technology, with trading suspended. 15. *ST Longyu announced that the Shanghai Stock Exchange required the company to fulfill its repurchase obligations during the delisting period. 16. Hailian Jinhui stated on the interactive platform that the company currently has no direct business revenue related to digital currency or stablecoins. Global Markets 1. The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.31%, the S&P 500 up 0.09%, and the Dow flat. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new closing highs since late February. Most large-cap tech stocks rose, with Tesla up over 4%, Intel up over 2%, Google and Amazon up over 1%, and Microsoft rising slightly. Apple and Netflix fell over 1%, while Meta dropped slightly. Most popular Chinese stocks closed higher, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up over 2%. European major indices collectively closed lower, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.62%. 2. International crude oil futures settled about 1% higher. WTI crude July futures rose 1.1%, while Brent crude August futures gained 0.86%. 3. COMEX gold futures rose 0.04% to $3,347.8/oz, while COMEX silver futures gained 2.07% to $36.915/oz. Investment Opportunities 1. Cross-Sea Flight Takes Only 5 Minutes: Hong Kong's First Drone Delivery Route Officially Launched Media reported that under Hong Kong's low-altitude economy regulatory sandbox framework, Meituan's drone first regular route officially commenced operations. The route features a "cross-sea + park" scenario, flying from Hong Kong Science Park to Ma On Shan Promenade in about 5 minutes, nearly 7 times more efficient than traditional delivery methods. Merchants like McDonald's and Pizza Hut in Hong Kong have already joined the service. Zhongtai Securities noted that China's consumer drone market size grew from 15.5 billion yuan in 2016 to 38.81 billion yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 20.2%, and is projected to reach 62.49 billion yuan by 2026. As prices decline and the industry chain improves, the barrier for consumer purchases has significantly lowered. 2. Industry Leaders Launch Scenario-Specific Products, with ByteDance, Huawei, and Tencent Entering the Market Media reported that Baidu Intelligent Cloud recently launched a family of selected industry scenario-specific smart agents covering energy, transportation, healthcare, and environmental sectors. In addition to Baidu, companies such as ByteDance, Huawei, Tencent, and Kunlun Tech have also been actively deploying AI Agents. A research report by Guoyuan Securities pointed out that major internet companies are competing in the Agent sector to secure new interaction entry points in the AI internet era. AI Agents inherit the core genes of the APP era, possessing a certain degree of versatility and subscription systems. Agents have advantages in service-oriented delivery, network effects, and developer ecosystems, and can directly invoke APPs to complete designated tasks. Universal Agents are widely permeating various aspects of users' work and lives, and are expected to surpass the original APP ecosystem. 3. The industry has a vast market size and is becoming an important driving force for economic development. According to media reports, the marine economy has shown a positive development trend this year, with the gross marine product in Q1 reaching RMB 2.5 trillion, up 5.7% YoY. The development of the marine industry has remained stable and positive, with the acceleration of new quality productive forces. The surging blue new momentum is becoming an important driving force for China's economic development. The marine economy has a vast market size and broad development space. In 2023, global marine trade reached US$2.2 trillion, accounting for about 7% of the total global trade, with service trade reaching US$1.3 trillion and merchandise trade reaching US$900 billion. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicts that by 2030, the economic value of the ocean will exceed US$3 trillion, equivalent to the size of the world's fifth-largest economy. Domestically, according to data released by the Ministry of Natural Resources, in 2024, China's total marine economy exceeded RMB 10 trillion for the first time. Northeast Securities pointed out that the 2025 government work report mentioned "launching large-scale application demonstration initiatives for new technologies, new products, and new scenarios to promote the safe and healthy development of emerging industries such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea technology." This is the first time that deep-sea technology has been included in the government work report. Deep-sea technology enhances detection capabilities in deep-sea areas, and the development of deep-sea technology holds both economic and strategic significance. With the support of top-level planning, emerging fields such as deep-sea technology are expected to accelerate their development. 4. An important direction in the new round of technological competition for NEVs, with significant acceleration in the R&D progress of such products. It is reported that as the technological breakthroughs in the NEV industry enter the "deep water zone," the evolution of the technological path of power batteries, as a core component, has attracted significant market attention. Among them, solid-state batteries have become an important direction in the new round of technological competition for NEVs. In terms of relevant standards, the "Judgment Method for All-Solid-State Batteries" has been released. In the market, R&D progress in the field of solid-state batteries has significantly accelerated. Driven by multiple factors, several publicly listed firms have clarified the timetable for the mass production of solid-state batteries, accelerating the industrialisation process of solid-state batteries. Zhongtai Securities pointed out that in April 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) introduced new national standards for power batteries, imposing stricter requirements on battery thermal runaway and thermal propagation. It also issued documents urging the acceleration of top-level construction in the solid-state battery industry, indicating a proactive and encouraging stance in national policies. Meanwhile, from the perspective of the capital expenditure cycle, capital expenditures for new-type battery technologies, primarily semi-solid-state, have significantly increased. The solid-state battery industry is expected to drive the lithium battery industry to complete a new round of industrial technology upgrades and iterations under the influence of the triple factors of "market demand + policy encouragement + industrial upgrading."

On Friday, Eastern Time, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that despite consumers and businesses preparing for tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the slowdown in non-farm payroll growth was not as severe as expected, providing the US Fed with policy room to delay interest rate cuts. Specifically, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the US in May recorded 139,000, the lowest since February and higher than the market expectation of 130,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, which will allay concerns that the labour market is beginning to slow significantly. Additionally, the increase in employment in May exceeded the median expectation, but the cumulative downward revision for the previous two months was 95,000, far offsetting the impact of the better-than-expected May figure. The closely watched inflation barometer—average hourly earnings in May increased by 0.4% MoM, higher than the previous 0.2% and the expected 0.3%, and increased by 3.9% YoY, higher than the previous 3.8% and the expected 3.7%. From an industry perspective, the healthcare sector once again led employment growth, creating 62,000 new jobs, even surpassing the average increase of 44,000 last year. The leisure and hospitality sector added 48,000 jobs. On the downside, as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Musk, began cutting federal government employees and spending, the federal government lost 22,000 jobs in May, the highest since 2020. In recent months, a series of economic policies announced by Trump, particularly his erratic approach to large-scale import tariffs, have shocked businesses. Uncertainty about the scale and scope of tariffs has made it difficult for large enterprises to operate and plan: they do not know what their costs will be in three months, or even in three days; moreover, it has become more uncertain whether consumers will continue to spend. The outlook has become increasingly unclear, and many of the largest publicly listed firms in the US have suspended their future earnings forecasts, leaving analysts and investors temporarily directionless. Small businesses, which have little room for error, are left in limbo. Ger Doyle, President of ManpowerGroup North America, a human resources company, said that Friday's non-farm report painted a picture of a "stable but cautious" labour market, despite increasing economic uncertainty. "This is not a freeze, but a temporary cooling. Employees are choosing to stay put, employers are maintaining stability, and everyone is waiting for clearer signals." Jeffrey Rosenberg, senior portfolio manager at BlackRock, commented that today's US non-farm payrolls data reinforced the US Fed's "wait-and-see" attitude. There are signs that employment growth momentum remains strong, but from an inflation perspective, wage increases are not enough to truly concern policymakers. Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital, said that while this month's non-farm payrolls data slightly exceeded consensus expectations and his personal forecast, the overall report, except for the hourly wage indicator, did not send a signal that the US Fed needs to intervene in the labour market. In fact, a 0.4% increase in hourly wages, while not significant, is notable enough to directly lock in the US Fed's wait-and-see stance.

On Friday, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, a former Japanese vice finance minister, stated that amid the narrowing trend of the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, the yen is expected to continue appreciating against the US dollar, potentially reaching around 135-140 yen per US dollar by the end of the year. Furusawa previously served as a deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and as Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, making him the top official responsible for exchange rate matters in Japan. Currently, he serves as the president of the Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation's Global Financial Affairs Research Institute, maintaining close ties with current central bank policymakers in Japan and overseas. Yen Expected to Continue Appreciating The market widely speculates that Trump, who previously accused Japan of currency manipulation, will pressure the Japanese government to help weaken the US dollar against the yen to give US exports a trade advantage. However, Furusawa stated that it remains unclear whether the Trump administration will explicitly adopt a weak dollar policy. "It is not easy for policymakers to intentionally push down the dollar," Furusawa said. "After clearly stating that tariffs are the main tool (for negotiations), I believe the US government does not need to rely too much on currency to achieve its goals." Nevertheless, Furusawa noted that the US may wish to avoid further appreciation of the dollar to prevent harm to exports. Meanwhile, Japan aims to prevent excessive yen weakness from driving up inflation. "Therefore, their intentions in this regard are aligned. This suggests that the yen may gradually appreciate," he said. Additionally, the divergence in monetary policy directions between Japan and the US will also support the yen. Amid widespread market concerns about a US recession triggered by tariff shocks, there is speculation that the US Fed's next move could be an interest rate cut, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is currently considering further rate hikes. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that if Japan's economic conditions improve and inflation continues to meet the 2% target, the central bank will proceed with rate hikes. However, he also hinted that rate hikes would need to wait until the impact of Trump's tariffs becomes clearer. "If Japan successfully reaches a broad trade agreement with the US—possibly at the G7 summit this month—it will reduce uncertainty," Furusawa said. Once real wages in Japan rise, it will support consumption. "If we see these positive developments, the BOJ may raise interest rates again in the second half of the year," Furusawa said, adding that the yen "may appreciate to around 135-140 yen per US dollar by the end of the year." As of press time this Friday, the US dollar-Japanese yen exchange rate was hovering around 144.11. Furusawa said that the Bank of Japan may ultimately want to raise its short-term policy interest rate target, currently at 0.5%, to above 1%, though success is uncertain. Japan may struggle to use US debt as a bargaining tool Japan is continuing trade negotiations with the US, with a focus on making progress on automobile tariffs. According to Japanese media reports, the two sides may seek to reach an agreement before the G7 summit on June 15-16. Last month, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that Japan might use its holdings of over $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds as leverage in trade negotiations with the US government, a statement that caused a stir. However, Furusawa believes that as a negotiating strategy, it is reasonable for Japan to claim that "all options are on the table." But it is doubtful whether Japan can actually use US debt as a bargaining tool. He explained that part of the reason is that if Japan were to actually sell off US Treasury bonds, it could anger Trump and disrupt trade negotiations, potentially backfiring.

Amid the spectacle of Trump and Musk's public feud, many Wall Street traders have not forgotten that there is another major macroeconomic event on the horizon tonight: the US May non-farm payrolls data... According to the schedule, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May non-farm payrolls data at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. Over the past few months, US economic data, particularly the "hard data," has consistently demonstrated resilience. Despite ongoing concerns about policy uncertainty, the number of layoffs has remained low, and business activity has remained stable. However, many industry insiders are concerned that this situation may soon change. With the implementation of widespread tariff measures, multiple sets of economic data released by the US government this week have gradually shown signs of a slowdown. This has led many traders to place increasing importance on tonight's May non-farm payrolls report, attempting to identify signs of weakness in the labour market to gauge the timing of a US Fed interest rate cut. So, what are the market expectations for tonight's non-farm payrolls? What should investors be aware of in advance? And how will the US financial markets perform tonight? According to the median forecasts compiled by industry economists, the number of new non-farm jobs added in May is expected to slow significantly to 125,000 from the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%, and wage growth is also expected to slow slightly on a YoY basis. Below are the latest median forecasts from Wall Street for the main indicators and key sub-indicators of the May non-farm payrolls compared with the previous month: The US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for May are expected to increase by 125,000, compared with the previous value of 177,000; The US unemployment rate for May is expected to be 4.2%, unchanged from the previous value of 4.2%; The US labour force participation rate for May is expected to be 62.6%, unchanged from the previous value of 62.6%; The US average hourly earnings for May are expected to increase by 3.7% YoY, compared with the previous value of 3.8%; The US average hourly earnings for May are expected to increase by 0.3% MoM, compared with the previous value of 0.2%. In contrast to the above mainstream forecasts, CLS has also compiled some key points to note for tonight's non-farm payrolls: ① There are significant differences in investment banks' forecasts for the non-farm payrolls The estimates for tonight's non-farm payrolls range from a high of +190,000 to a low of +75,000; ② "Whisper numbers" circulating in the market have declined as the data release date approaches Whisper numbers are unofficial and unpublished forecasts circulating among Wall Street professionals, often disclosed to VIP clients of brokerage firms. Currently, the whisper number forecast for non-farm payrolls has dropped to 110,000 people. ③ A series of leading indicators ahead of the non-farm payrolls data have generally underperformed Part of the reason for the decline in the aforementioned "whisper number" is clearly the poor performance of a series of leading indicators for non-farm payrolls released earlier this week, ahead of tonight's non-farm payrolls night. In particular, the ADP employment data on Wednesday and the initial jobless claims data on Thursday were extremely dismal. According to a report released by US payroll processing company ADP on Wednesday, as signs of weakness emerged in the labour market, job growth in the US private sector nearly stalled in May, hitting the lowest level in more than two years—only 37,000 jobs were added that month, far below the market expectation of 110,000. A discrepancy of as much as 5 Sigmas between the reported figure and market expectations is extremely rare. This also marked the lowest monthly employment figure released by ADP since March 2023. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that, for the week ending May 31, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 247,000, higher than the market expectation of 235,000 and reaching the highest level since 2025. In addition, the employment sub-indices in the ISM surveys presented a mixed picture overall. Although the ISM manufacturing employment index increased slightly this month, it remained below the 50 mark, while the employment situation in the services sector improved, with job growth returning to expansion territory. ④ Tonight's US Department of Labor report will correct many data points from the April non-farm payrolls report The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had previously issued a notice on its official website on Tuesday, indicating that it would correct "minor errors" in many data points from the April non-farm payrolls report when releasing the May non-farm employment report on Friday. The notice stated, "Due to minor errors in weights resulting from the introduction of a redesigned Current Population Survey (CPS) sample, some estimates for April 2025 will be revised on June 6, 2025." However, while past non-farm payrolls data will be corrected, major labour market sub-indices such as the unemployment rate, labour force participation rate, and employment-to-population ratio will remain unaffected. ⑤ Expectations for an interest rate cut ahead of the non-farm payrolls data have increased somewhat As reported by Caixin earlier this morning, due to the poor performance of multiple sets of US economic data on Wednesday, market expectations for an interest rate cut have rapidly increased. Currently, the market has fully priced in the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the US Fed this year. Of course, this expectation for an interest rate cut is actually at a rather sensitive juncture. The well-known financial blog website Zerohedge has analyzed that any upside surprise in non-farm payrolls data could lead to another market reversal—no longer expecting two interest rate cuts within the year, while any downside surprise could trigger concerns about an economic recession and impact risk assets. ⑥ How will non-farm payrolls data affect financial markets? In the forward-looking forecasts of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase teams, both generally expect that the better the non-farm payrolls data is tonight, the more favorable it will be for the market; on the other end, JPMorgan Chase's Andrew Tyler team believes that if the data falls below 100,000, it could potentially end the current bull market in U.S. stocks... Below are the five scenarios forecasted by the JPMorgan Chase team: ① Non-farm payrolls exceed 170,000: This is the first tail-risk scenario. A figure of 170,000 can to some extent be considered as hiring demand driven by demand boost or seasonal contingencies. If employment further reaches 250,000 people, it may be seen as the economy reaccelerating, with the trade war at least not having a substantial impact on the labour market, thereby forcing the bond market to reprice for higher yields and eliminating the one or two interest rate cuts that the market has already priced in. The probability of this scenario occurring tonight is 5%, and the S&P 500 index will rise by 0.5%-2.5% as a result. ② Non-farm payrolls are between 140,000 and 170,000: This would be the economy's "Goldilocks scenario." The probability of this scenario occurring tonight is 25%, and the S&P 500 index will rise by 1.5%-2% as a result. ③ Non-farm payrolls are between 115,000 and 135,000: This is also the current mainstream market expectation. Even at the lower end of this range (115,000), it would be sufficient to sustain the current market rally, but attention should be paid to the unemployment rate trend. If the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, the intraday gain of the S&P 500 index may converge to the lower end of the estimate for this scenario (0.25%), while also indicating that the unemployment rate may accelerate its climb at a rate of 0.1-0.2 percentage points per month, potentially worsening after the full impact of the trade war becomes apparent. However, it should be noted that given the almost weekly changes in trade policies, any forecast is subject to uncertainty. The probability of this scenario occurring tonight is 40%, and the S&P 500 index will rise by 0.25%-1% as a result. ④ Non-farm payrolls are between 100,000 and 115,000: When non-farm payrolls data falls below 100,000, the market will face a real test—most people will view it as an inevitable signal of a recession. The unemployment rate and wage growth also affect the outcome in this range—the worst-case scenario in this range is that the data only reaches 100,000, the unemployment rate rises to 4.3% or 4.4%, and wages decline. Overall, there is a 25% probability of this scenario occurring tonight, with the S&P 500 index expected to move between a 1.25% decline and a 0.5% increase. ⑤ Non-farm payrolls data is below 100,000. This is the second tail-risk scenario, which could potentially end the current US bull market. Economic recessions are a typical cause of bull market endings, and data below 100,000 would put the entire market on "recession alert." There is a 5% probability of this scenario occurring tonight, with the S&P 500 index expected to decline by 2%-3%. JPMorgan Chase concluded, "Current market risks remain skewed to the upside, as we believe the market is in a 'good news is good news' macro environment. Positioning suggests investors are net short, expecting a trade war to eventually lead to an economic downturn; some believe the US is heading toward a recession or even stagflation, while the US Fed will remain on hold. Additionally, if the deficit-expanding tax/budget bill is passed, it will deplete the US fiscal reserves to combat a recession or stagflation. However, our tactical view is more measured, as we believe economic resilience will persist in the near term." Coincidentally, Goldman Sachs currently makes a similar "good data is good news, bad data is bad news" prediction regarding the impact of tonight's non-farm payrolls data on US stocks. Goldman Sachs itself forecasts 110,000 for tonight's non-farm payrolls. Data significantly below expectations could lead to a 1.5% decline in the S&P 500 index, while data significantly exceeding expectations could drive US stocks up by over 1%.

SMM June 5 News: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper and SHFE zinc fell slightly, SHFE aluminum rose by 0.1%, SHFE lead increased by 0.51%, SHFE tin gained 1.49%, and SHFE nickel dropped by 0.38%. In addition, alumina fell by 2.97%, lithium carbonate decreased by 0.33%, silicon metal dropped by 0.91%, and polysilicon fell by 2.25%. The ferrous metals series mostly fell, with iron ore down by 0.64%, rebar declining by 0.47%, and HRC falling by 0.78%. Stainless steel remained flat at 12,665 yuan/mt. For coking coal and coke: coking coal rose by 0.2%, and coke fell by 0.52%. In the overseas metal market, as of 11:49, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME zinc and LME copper rose slightly, LME lead fell by 0.23%, LME aluminum increased by 0.1%, LME tin dropped by 0.26%, and LME nickel decreased by 0.03%. In precious metals, as of 11:49, COMEX gold fell slightly, while COMEX silver rose by 0.24%. Domestically, SHFE gold increased by 0.42%, and SHFE silver rose by 0.07%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping line fell by 0.95%, closing at 2,128.2. As of 11:49 on June 5, the midday futures market conditions for some products were as follows: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on June 5 Spot and Fundamentals Lead: Today, the SMM 1# lead average price increased by 75 yuan/mt from yesterday to 16,500 yuan/mt. Secondary lead smelters' shipping sentiment improved, with the mainstream ex-factory prices of secondary refined lead showing a premium of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. The price difference between primary metal and scrap narrowed to 0 yuan/mt... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [National Energy Administration: National Power Supply Expected to be Generally Secure During Summer Peak This Year] Hao Ruifeng, Director of the Market Regulation Department of the National Energy Administration, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that, based on the current situation, it is expected that the national power supply will be generally secure during the summer peak this year, although there may be tight power supply conditions in some regions during peak periods. Hao Ruifeng pointed out that the National Energy Administration aims to ensure flexible regular supply, implement measures for localized short-term tightness, and achieve effective responses in extreme situations, pressing all parties to fulfill their responsibilities. Through measures such as strengthening energy and power monitoring and early warning, fully leveraging power supply potential during peak periods, accelerating the construction and commissioning of supportive power sources, optimizing cross-provincial power interchanges, and enhancing demand-side response, the Administration will strive to ensure the safe and stable power supply during the summer peak. [Song Hongkun, Deputy Director of the National Energy Administration: Wind, PV, and Nuclear Power Installations Surpassed Thermal Power Installations for the First Time by the End of April] Song Hongkun, Deputy Director of the National Energy Administration, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference today that as of the end of April this year, China's installed renewable energy power generation capacity reached 2.017 billion kW, up 58% YoY, with wind, PV, and nuclear power installations reaching 1.53 billion kW, surpassing thermal power installations for the first time. [Ministry of Ecology and Environment: Coal consumption accounted for 53.2% of total energy consumption in 2024] The Ministry of Ecology and Environment officially released the "Report on the State of China's Ecology and Environment in 2024". Coal consumption accounted for 53.2% of total energy consumption, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from 2023. The consumption of clean energy sources, including natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power, accounted for 28.6% of total energy consumption, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from 2023. By the end of 2024, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon emissions trading market reached 630 million mt, with a cumulative turnover of 43.033 billion yuan. [Caixin China General Services PMI rose to 51.1 in May] The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) for May, released today, stood at 51.1, up 0.4 percentage points from April, indicating an acceleration in the expansion of services sector operations. [PBOC net withdrew 139.5 billion yuan from the open market today] The PBOC conducted 126.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 266 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan was realized on the day. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1865 yuan per US dollar at 06:05 on June 5 US dollar: As of 11:49, the US dollar index rose 0.04% to 98.83. US economic data was weaker than expected, while market participants were also weighing lingering global economic and political uncertainties. The US ADP National Employment Report showed that private sector employment increased by only 37,000 jobs in May, the fewest in more than two years. Investors are awaiting Friday's non-farm payrolls report for further clues on the labour market. The US services sector contracted for the first time in nearly a year in May, with firms' input prices rising to the highest level in two and a half years. The Fed's Beige Book stated that US economic activity had declined in the weeks since the Fed's policymakers last met to set interest rates, with higher tariff rates putting upward pressure on costs and prices. US President Trump again urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates on Wednesday, noting that the latest ADP employment report showed a slowdown in job growth. Other currencies: Expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continued to rise, but yen bulls held their positions for the time being. The latest data showed that nominal wages in Japan rose 2.3% YoY in April, the fastest pace in four months, but real wages fell for the fourth consecutive month, down 1.8%, highlighting that wage growth is still struggling to keep up with inflationary pressures. This "nominal increase, actual decline" structure provides justification for the Bank of Japan to continue tightening its policies. "Despite relatively rapid nominal wage growth, households' real purchasing power continues to decline amid high inflation, making it more likely for the central bank to continue adopting a gradual interest rate hike path," said Shinichi Sato, an analyst at Toyo Keizai Research Institute. (Huitong Finance) Data Releases: Today, the following data will be released: the global ANZ commodity price index annual rate for May, Australia's goods and services trade balance for April, Australia's export monthly rate for April, Australia's import monthly rate for April, China's Caixin Services PMI for May, Switzerland's unadjusted unemployment rate for May, Switzerland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May, the global leading indicator for turning points in the industrial production cycle for May, the number of job cuts announced by US companies in May, the European Central Bank's (ECB) main refinancing rate for June, the ECB's deposit facility rate for June, the ECB's marginal lending facility rate for June, the US trade balance for April, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31, the number of continuing jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31, Canada's trade balance for April, Canada's IVEY seasonally adjusted PMI for May, Canada's IVEY unadjusted PMI for May, and the global supply chain pressure index for May. Additionally, notable events include: the US Fed releasing the Beige Book on economic conditions; the ECB announcing its interest rate decision; and ECB President Christine Lagarde holding a press conference on monetary policy. Crude Oil Market: As of 11:49, crude oil futures have all dropped slightly, with US crude oil down 0.29% and Brent crude oil down 0.12%. This follows an increase in US gasoline and diesel inventories, as well as Saudi Arabia lowering its prices for Asian crude oil buyers in July. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, lowered its prices for Asian crude oil buyers in July on Wednesday to the lowest level in two months, which the market views as an attempt by Saudi Arabia to regain market share. Saudi Arabia is a major oil producer within the OPEC oil production group, which includes member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia. This move comes after OPEC decided to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July over the weekend. (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► Sluggish Market Consumption and Weak Demand Lead to Sluggish Spot Transactions [SMM North China Spot Copper] ► Secondary Lead: Downstream Just-in-Time Procurement Leans Towards Primary Lead Market, with Only a Small Volume of High-Premium Refined Lead Transactions [SMM Lead Midday Review] ► [SMM HRC Weekly Balance] Dragon Boat Festival Holiday Combined with Price Declines Lead to a Slight Accumulation of HRC Inventory This Week ► Silver Prices Continue to Consolidate Sideways, with Market Transactions Remaining Sluggish [SMM Daily Review] Midday reviews of other metal spot markets will be updated later. Please refresh to view.

On May 15 (Thursday), First Quantum Minerals stated that if its shuttered Cobre Panama copper mine were still in operation, it would have contributed over US$1.7 billion to the economy of the Latin American country. In its annual tax transparency disclosure filed this week, the company estimated that under the tax regime before the suspension of operations, its Cobre Panama business would have generated US$500 million in revenue for the government, over US$250 million in wages, and nearly US$1 billion in local procurement last year. The Panamanian government ordered the closure of the Cobre Panama operations in November 2023. However, the mine actually contributed only US$378 million last year, a significant drop from the US$1.83 billion in the previous year when the mine was operating at nearly full capacity. First Quantum Minerals still holds hope for reopening the mine. Since achieving commercial production in September 2019, Cobre Panama has been increasing its copper production, reaching a record 350,000 mt in 2022. In October 2023, the month before the closure, Cobre Panama also achieved its highest monthly processing volume and copper production. First Quantum Minerals stated that since the Cobre Panama mine commenced production, it has paid over US$1.2 billion in direct taxes, royalties, and other payments to the government.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated on Tuesday that despite the economic pressure brought by uncertainties surrounding the US tariff policy, the bank expects wages and prices to continue rising, suggesting its determination to maintain a stance of interest rate hikes. Uchida pointed out that although "Trump tariffs" may harm Japan's economic growth, if the economy and prices improve after a period of stagnation, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates, as indicated in the bank's latest summary of opinions from the April monetary policy meeting. "Although the underlying inflation rate in the short term and medium and long-term inflation expectations may stagnate, wages are expected to continue rising due to the extremely tight labor market in Japan. It is also expected that companies will continue to pass on rising labor and transportation costs by raising prices," Uchida emphasized. If economic indicators improve as expected, the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates to address potential inflationary pressures. He also mentioned the issue of the output gap, believing that this indicator will gradually improve over the next three years and return to a healthier level by the end of fiscal year 2027. Regarding the impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy, Uchida commented that these tariffs could both push up prices and exert downward pressure, necessitating close monitoring of changes in the international economic situation. Uchida's remarks underscore the challenges faced by Bank of Japan policymakers in balancing the unfavourable factors of "Trump tariffs" on economic growth against domestic inflationary pressures stemming from a tight labor market and rising raw material costs. Meanwhile, the minutes of the Bank of Japan's April meeting also showed that while the committee generally believed that US tariffs would harm Japan's economy, most members indicated that such harm was unlikely to derail the Bank of Japan's path towards sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target, and thus they did not abandon the possibility of further interest rate hikes. It was reported that at the meeting on April 30 to May 1, committee members stated that "the central bank needs to wait and see until there is clarity on the progress of US tariff policies," "the Bank of Japan can enter a phase of pausing interest rate hikes, but should not be overly pessimistic," and "there is a need to implement monetary policy in a more flexible manner, such as further raising the policy interest rate in response to changes in US policies." Uchida emphasized that the Bank of Japan will examine the economic impact of US trade policies "without preconceived notions," but the uncertainty of the outlook is extremely high. Finally, Shinichi Uchida also pointed out that while the strong yen had a negative impact on the export sector and large manufacturers, it also contributed to the growth of households' real incomes and improved retailers' profits by reducing import costs. He mentioned that rapid fluctuations in the foreign exchange market added uncertainty to corporate business plans, which posed a significant challenge for enterprises relying on a stable market environment.

On Thursday local time, the Bank of England (BoE) announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, reducing the benchmark interest rate from 4.5% to 4.25%. This marked the fourth rate cut in the current easing cycle, in line with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) approved the interest rate decision with a 5-4 vote. Five members supported a 25 basis point cut, two members advocated for a more significant cut (50 basis points), and two other members voted to maintain the key interest rate unchanged. The split voting lineup, with three factions, highlighted the chaos caused by US trade policies. MPC members Dhingra and Taylor voted in favor of a 50 basis point cut, arguing that the BoE needed to act swiftly to support the economy and ensure inflation does not fall below the target level. Given the uncertainties brought to the UK economy by Trump's across-the-board tariff impositions, BoE policymakers adhered to their guidelines that monetary easing should continue to be "gradual and cautious." BoE Governor Bailey stated, "Inflationary pressures continue to ease, allowing us to cut interest rates again today. However, the past few weeks have shown how unpredictable the global economy's trajectory can be. That's why we need to stick to a gradual and cautious approach." This decision demonstrated a tougher stance than expected, with the British pound initially diving against the US dollar before surging again. Reports also indicated that the UK is preparing to reach a trade deal with the US, which has supported the pound. Despite the prospect of a trade deal, the BoE made it clear that the impact of US tariff policies on the UK economy is real and will persist for some time. Due to rising costs and increased uncertainty, the shock to economic activity will reduce UK output by 0.3 percentage points over three years and lower inflation by 0.2 percentage points over two years. The BoE revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 upward to 1% (from a February forecast of 0.75%), slightly lowered its forecast for 2026 to 1.25% (from a February forecast of 1.5%), and maintained its 2027 forecast at 1.5%. Regarding inflation, the BoE currently expects inflation to peak at 3.5% in Q3 this year, down from a previous forecast of 3.7%, primarily due to falling energy prices. The inflation rate is expected to reach the 2% target by Q1 2027. Expectations for further rate cuts decline The BoE also presented two scenarios: one where goods supply may weaken, and domestic wages and prices in the UK may continue to rise; and another where inflationary pressures may ease more quickly due to greater or more prolonged weakness in demand relative to supply. The day before, the US Fed remained on hold. Fed Chairman Powell, who is often criticized by Trump, made it clear that the central bank would not rush to ease monetary policy until there was greater certainty about the direction of trade policy. Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, said that the Bank of England's interest rate cut was not surprising, but the fact that two members, including chief economist Huw Pill, preferred to keep interest rates unchanged reduced the likelihood of another rate cut at next month's meeting. Luke Bartholomew, an economist at Aberdeen, said that it was highly unusual for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to be divided over Trump's tariffs, which would make it difficult for the Bank of England to send a clear signal to the market about the possible policy path. However, as the central bank maintained its guidance that further rate cuts would be gradual and prudent, the likelihood of another rate cut in June had significantly decreased. Julius Bendikas, head of European economics and dynamic asset allocation at Mercer Consulting, commented: "The Bank of England's MPC faces a tricky balancing act, with inflation and wage levels remaining high, but global trade issues likely to exert downward pressure on economic growth and inflation. We expect that as price and wage inflation slow further, the Bank of England will continue to cut interest rates, reducing them to 3.5% or lower by 2026."