Today, at the 2026 CATL Core Operations Carbon Neutrality Launch Event, Huang Bin, Director of CATL’s Procurement Center and Director of the Planning and Material Control Department, stated that more than 80% of carbon emissions across the entire lithium battery life cycle come from various stages of the supply chain. In the next phase, CATL’s goal is to achieve carbon neutrality across the full value chain—from mineral resources to finished batteries—by 2035. To achieve this goal, the key lies in coordinated efforts across the supply chain. From accurately accounting for its carbon footprint to the end-to-end process of targeted emissions reduction, CATL broke down the goals in detail and developed a specific action plan.

Editor’s Note: Looking back at the H1 rare earth market, it was truly a case of “you reap what you sow.” The rare earth sector as a whole drifted higher amid consolidation, while price performance diverged across products. Pr-Nd oxide rose 22.42% in H1, dysprosium oxide increased 5.97%, and terbium oxide gained 8.37%. As the tide lifts all boats, the rise in rare earth prices directly boosted operating returns for enterprises across the industry chain. According to SMM statistics, the 10 rare earth-related firms that have disclosed semi-annual reports, preliminary earnings releases, and earnings forecasts all delivered varying degrees of earnings growth in H1. The market is now eagerly awaiting the realization of demand in the traditional peak season. At this period of transition from summer to autumn, can the H2 rare earth market sustain H1’s gains, and what kind of market landscape will emerge for upstream and downstream players in the rare earth industry chain? Multiple Rare Earth Companies Report Strong H1 Results A semi-annual earnings forecast disclosed by China Rare Earth on the evening of July 13 showed that, based on preliminary estimates by the company’s finance department, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm for the 2026 semi-annual period was expected to be 3,700 million yuan to 4,300 million yuan, an increase of 297.5013 million yuan to 357.5013 million yuan from the same period last year, up 410.35% to 493.11% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for the 2026 semi-annual period was expected to be 3,680.027 million yuan to 4,280.027 million yuan, an increase of 276.2326 million yuan to 336.2326 million yuan from the same period last year, up 301.00% to 366.39% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected earnings increase for the period, China Rare Earth stated: (1) In H1 2026, amid changes in the supply-demand pattern of the rare earth industry and YoY increases in prices of major rare earth products, the company enhanced overall operating value of its core rare earth business by innovating an integrated operating model, coordinating rare earth raw material procurement for separation plants and full-product market sales, and dynamically adjusting its product output mix based on analysis of changes in supply and demand. (2) The company vigorously advanced loss-making enterprise remediation and deepened reform initiatives, achieving notable results; resources were further concentrated in core main businesses and advantaged businesses, and loss-making enterprises significantly reduced losses YoY. (3) The company’s investee, Dabaoshan, maintained stable and high output; sales and prices of copper and sulfur products both rose YoY, increasing enterprise profitability, and the company’s investment income recognized under the equity method increased. A semi-annual earnings forecast disclosed by Huahong Technology on the evening of July 13 showed that net profit attributable to the parent in H1 2026 was expected to be 320 million yuan to 360 million yuan, up 301.84%–352.08% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the performance change, Huahong Technology stated: In H1 2026, benefiting from industry policies and a rebound in downstream demand, prices of major rare earth products in China climbed steadily. The company’s comprehensive utilization segment for rare earth resources seized market opportunities, fully leveraging its overall advantages in capacity scale, cost control, and process technologies, continuously optimizing supply–production–sales coordination and inventory management strategies, and effectively driving a full release of profitability in this segment. The company continued to deepen its layout across the rare earth industry chain, with its downstream rare earth permanent magnet material business expanding steadily. Benefiting from stable demand in end-use sectors such as NEVs, wind power, and industrial automation, this segment continued to scale up, with revenue and product mix continuously improving, becoming an important supplement to earnings growth. Xiamen Tungsten’s semiannual performance forecast showed that, based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, it was expected that in H1 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm would be about 2.2160318 billion yuan, an increase of about 1.2467133 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, up about 128.62% YoY. Based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, it was expected that in H1 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after excluding non-recurring gains and losses would be about 2.1760263 billion yuan, an increase of about 1.2534882 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, up about 135.87% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected increase in performance for the period, Xiamen Tungsten explained: In H1, amid a market environment where material prices for major raw materials such as tungsten, cobalt, lithium carbonate, and Pr-Nd oxide rose YoY and swung wildly, the company responded proactively, dynamically adjusted its operating strategy, and drove a linked rise in selling prices; meanwhile, it continued to enhance product quality and market development capabilities. Sales of major products such as alloy bars, cutting tools, power battery cathode materials, and magnetic materials climbed steadily, and profitability across the company’s three core businesses—tungsten & molybdenum, new energy materials, and rare earths—improved to varying degrees. Ningbo Yunsheng disclosed a performance forecast on the evening of July 14, showing that, based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, it was expected that in H1 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm would be 240 million yuan to 310 million yuan; compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed figures), it would increase by 132.1657 million yuan to 202.1657 million yuan, up 122.56%–187.48% YoY. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was expected to be 2.1 billion yuan to 2.8 billion yuan for the 2026 semiannual period. Compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), this was expected to increase by 1.3954 billion yuan to 1.913954 billion yuan, up 137.01% to 216.01% YoY. Ningbo Yunsheng stated that the main reasons for this performance increase were: during the reporting period, the Company remained client demand-oriented, deeply focused on NEVs, consumer electronics, industrial and other application fields, actively explored emerging and regional markets, seized development opportunities for new projects, continuously optimized its business mix, and increased the proportion of revenue from outside China. Meanwhile, the Company continued to deepen refined management, driving higher product gross margins and resulting in an increase in net profit. The semiannual earnings forecast released by China Northern Rare Earth showed that, based on a preliminary estimate by the Company’s finance department, the net profit attributable to owners of the parent was expected to be 19.8 billion yuan to 20.6 billion yuan for the 2026 semiannual period. Compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), this was expected to increase by 10.5 billion yuan to 11.3 billion yuan, up 112.74% to 121.33% YoY. The net profit attributable to owners of the parent, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was expected to be 19.9 billion yuan to 20.7 billion yuan for the 2026 semiannual period. Compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), this was expected to increase by 10.93 billion yuan to 11.73 billion yuan, up 121.90% to 130.82% YoY. As for the main reasons for the performance increase in the current period: In H1 2026, the Company served the national rare earth resources strategy and fully implemented the requirements for secure control of the rare earth industry chain. Affected by factors such as constrained supply on the raw material end of the market and the release of downstream demand across multiple areas with sustained growth, rare earth product prices overall strengthened and consolidated. Centered on the annual production and operating task targets, the Company made coordinated planning and adopted comprehensive measures, strengthened comprehensive budget management, pursued cost reduction, quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in synergy, scientifically organized production and production schedules, stepped up market sales and marketing operations, deepened reform and innovation, strengthened group management and risk prevention and control, and advanced the deep integration of specialized management, lean management and 5S management with high quality. It promoted the construction of key projects, accelerated the development of new quality productive forces through management and scientific research and innovation, and provided solid support and assurance for the Company to achieve sound operating results with strong industry chain value creation capability and core competitiveness. The Company scientifically refined its production organization and operations, and production of rare earth smelting and separation products, rare earth metal products, and rare earth new materials all reached record highs for the same period; its subsidiary Inner Mongolia North Rare Earth Magnetic Materials Co., Ltd. achieved operating revenue of approximately 9.5 billion yuan in H1, up approximately 107% YoY, maintaining a growth trend for three consecutive years; its subsidiary Inner Mongolia Xi’aoke Hydrogen Storage Alloy Co., Ltd. put its first batch of 1,000 hydrogen-powered two-wheelers into official operation in Baotou City, with cumulative safe mileage reaching 170,000 kilometers, and the project’s demonstration effect was significant. The company continued to benchmark against advanced practices both internally and externally to further tap its potential, strengthened refined management, and achieved significant improvements in multiple economic and technical indicators. Based on targeted measures across business segments: the smelting and separation segment overcame new changes in production costs caused by rising prices of raw and auxiliary materials, effectively controlled cost fluctuations, and scientifically organized production and production scheduling to ensure new demand for product supply; the rare earth metals segment used the strengthening of lean production as a key lever and leveraged digital and intelligent tools to further enhance on-site process operation management, driving new breakthroughs in economic and technical indicators such as quality and material consumption ratios; the rare earth new materials and applications segment fully leveraged the advantages of newly added capacity, precisely aligned with client needs, and made new progress in using production to drive sales promotions. The company deepened coordinated linkage across the industry chain, and on the basis of ensuring stable product supply, consolidated the foundation of cooperation with downstream clients. Shenghe Resources’ H1 performance forecast released on July 10 showed that, based on preliminary calculations by the company’s finance department, net profit attributable to owners of the parent for 2026 H1 was expected to be 800 million to 930 million yuan, an increase of 423.0938 million to 553.0938 million yuan compared to the same period last year, up 112.25% to 146.75% YoY. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent for 2026 H1 after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was expected to be 790 million to 920 million yuan, an increase of 426.487 million to 556.487 million yuan compared to the same period last year, up 117.32% to 153.09% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected increase in performance for the period, Shenghe Resources stated that during the reporting period, influenced by factors such as rare earth industry policies and downstream demand, overall market demand for the company’s major rare earth products improved, and product prices and average selling prices rose significantly compared with the previous year. The company seized market opportunities, optimized its production and sales structure, strengthened management empowerment and cost control, thereby driving a substantial increase in performance. According to the semi-annual report recently released by China Rare Earth, in H1, the supply-demand pattern of the rare earth industry continued to be adjusted and optimized; driven by multiple favorable factors such as rare earth industry policies and a boost in downstream market demand, the overall market trend rose, and Pr-Nd product prices increased notably compared to the same period last year. In line with the annual work plan, the company anchored its targets and further increased pressure, rode the momentum and strove to lead, strengthened Party-building leadership, and closely focused on six key tasks—resource security, efficient operations, technological innovation, project development, deepening reform, and capability building—making targeted efforts and achieving significant phased results. Both operational performance and quality improved in tandem, all operating targets and tasks were successfully completed, and the company worked hard to create a new landscape of high-quality leapfrog development, laying the foundation for a strong start to the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. In H1 , the company achieved operating revenue of 1.647 billion yuan; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 237 million yuan, up 46.53% YoY; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 240 million yuan, up 55.49% YoY. The H1 performance forecast disclosed by Tianhe Magnetics on July 9 showed that, based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, net profit attributable to owners of the parent company for H1 2026 was expected to be 73 million yuan to 93 million yuan, representing an increase of 19.5448 million yuan to 39.5448 million yuan compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), up 36.56% to 73.98% YoY. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent company for H1 2026 after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was expected to be 68 million yuan to 88 million yuan, representing an increase of 32.5723 million yuan to 52.5723 million yuan compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), up 91.94% to 148.39% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected increase in H1 performance, Tianhe Magnetics stated: 1、 In H1, raw material prices fluctuated at elevated levels overall. The company optimized its pricing strategy for certain existing inventory and new orders, and raised product selling prices. 2、In 2026, the company proactively seized market opportunities and carried out sales efforts around “focusing on emerging markets, deepening customer relationships, and optimizing channel layout,” achieving dual-engine growth driven by both international and China markets. Market development delivered notable results, and overall operating revenue is expected to increase by about 30% YoY, with revenue from China operations expected to increase by about 50% YoY. 3、During the reporting period, the impact of non-recurring gains and losses on net profit was expected to be about 5 million yuan, versus non-recurring gains and losses (after tax) of 18.0275 million yuan in the same period last year. The H1 performance forecast released by JL MAG Rare-Earth on July 1 showed that net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in H1 2026 was expected to be 400 million yuan to 460 million yuan, up 31.17%-50.84% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the performance change, JL MAG Rare-Earth stated in its announcement: 1、In H1 2026, the company’s management adhered to the annual operating policy of “upholding lawfulness and compliance, maintaining a customer-oriented approach, focusing on the core magnetic material business, building 20,000 mt of new capacity on schedule, actively deploying motor rotors for embodied robots, and reaching new peaks again.” Through measures such as technological innovation, organizational optimization, digital development, and lean management, the company ensured contract performance and delivery to its broad client base while achieving steady growth in operating performance. The company continued to consolidate its leading position in the new energy and energy-saving environmental protection sectors, actively expanded into emerging markets, and operating revenue was expected to be up about 30% YoY. In particular, operating revenue in the NEV and automotive parts segment was up about 30% YoY; in the robotics and industrial servo motor segment, operating revenue was up about 90% YoY, and embodied-robot motor rotor products had already been delivered in small batches. 2. During the reporting period, the impact of non-recurring gains and losses on net profit was expected to be about 32 million yuan; non-recurring gains and losses (after tax) in the same period last year were 70.9405 million yuan. 3. During this reporting period, due to A-share and H-share equity incentives and the issuance of H-share convertible bonds, related expenses such as share-based payment expenses and financial expenses totaled about 121 million yuan; there were no such expenses in the same period last year. Zhong Ke San Huan released its 2026 H1 performance bulletin on the evening of July 20, showing that in H1, the company achieved operating revenue of 36,137.721 million yuan, up 23.67% YoY; total profit of 1,028.001 million yuan, up 1.18% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 492.189 million yuan, up 11.88% from the same period last year; and after excluding the impact of non-recurring gains and losses such as government subsidies, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 323.035 million yuan, up 2.25% from the same period last year. Zhong Ke San Huan’s semiannual performance bulletin showed that in 2026 H1, amid increasingly intense market competition and a complex and volatile external environment, through the joint efforts of all employees, the company’s core product sales were up YoY, and cost-reduction measures such as optimizing formulation processes and reducing the usage of heavy rare earth helped lift the overall gross margin up YoY; the operations of some subsidiaries improved, achieving reduced losses or a turnaround; meanwhile, the company further improved inventory management, optimized the inventory mix of key raw materials, and impairment losses decreased YoY. Affected by the RMB’s appreciation against the US dollar and the euro, the company incurred foreign exchange losses during the reporting period, and financial expenses increased YoY, partially offsetting the profit growth. In H1 This Year, Pr-Nd oxide Rose 22.42%; Dysprosium Oxide and Terbium Oxide Both Increased In 2026 H1, the rare earth oxide market went through a roller-coaster cycle of “sharp surge—plunge—repair—re-divergence.” Pr-Nd oxide saw the most dramatic price fluctuations, while dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices rose first, then fell, and then rebounded. Reviewing the H1 price trends of Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide shows that: The average price of Pr-Nd oxide on June 30 was 742,500 yuan/mt, up 136,000 yuan/mt from its average price of 606,500 yuan/mt on December 31, 2025, representing a H1 increase of 22.42%. Meanwhile, the semiannual daily average price of Pr-Nd oxide in H1 this year was 740,530.17 yuan/mt, up 309,577.18 yuan/mt YoY from its daily average of 430,952.99 yuan/mt in H1 2025, a YoY increase of 71.84%. The average price of dysprosium oxide on June 30 was 1,420 yuan/kg, up 80 yuan/kg from its average price of 1,340 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, representing a H1 increase of 5.97%. However, comparing the daily average price of dysprosium oxide in H1 this year (1,394.09 yuan/kg) with the daily average in H1 2025 (1,660.26 yuan/kg) shows that its daily average in H1 this year fell 16.03% YoY. The average price of terbium oxide on June 30 was 6,475 yuan/kg, up 500 yuan/kg from its average price of 5,975 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, representing a H1 increase of 8.37%. However, comparing the daily average price of terbium oxide in H1 this year (6,200.26 yuan/kg) with the daily average in H1 2025 (6,634.62 yuan/kg) shows that its daily average in H1 this year fell 6.55% YoY. Since entering August, the rare earth market has maintained a move sideways pattern amid a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. At present, downstream enthusiasm for inquiries and purchases is not high, market inquiry activity remains relatively limited, and the overall trading atmosphere is sluggish, with rare earth prices continuing to diverge: the Pr-Nd market was affected by the continued pullback in futures prices, leading some suppliers to slightly lower their quotes; medium-heavy rare earth prices showed strong resilience and generally remained stable. In the short term, affected by the market stalemate, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to continue to move sideways within a narrow range. In the medium and long-term, SMM expects that overall supply of Pr-Nd oxide in 2026 will still have a tight underlying basis, but with new capacity in H2 gradually coming on stream, previously idle smelting and separation capacity plans to start up, and subsequent pressure for supply-side loosening may gradually emerge. On the demand side, rising toll processing orders at metal plants in Inner Mongolia will provide some rigid demand support for Pr-Nd oxide. As the traditional September-October peak season approaches, the market holds strong expectations for downstream restocking and stockpiling; end-use demand still has a considerable number of NEV orders awaiting concentrated release in H2. The industrial robot sector’s boom is expected to continue, and demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to post a notable increase YoY within the year. While emerging tracks such as humanoid robots and the low-altitude economy are developing rapidly and offer ample long-term growth potential, they are still in the early stage of industry cultivation, and their actual incremental contribution to rare earth permanent magnets remains limited for now. Whether expectations for peak-season demand will be fulfilled and the pace at which new capacity is released will become the key variables shaping the subsequent rare earth market. Voices From Different Parties A research report released by Datong Securities on August 11 noted that rare earth spot prices pulled back in the short term, and downstream magnetic material enterprises were relatively cautious in procurement. However, amid three supply constraints—tighter mining quotas, upgraded export controls, and production cuts in scrap recycling—together with restocking demand in markets outside China, the logic of strategic revaluation remained intact. Overall, policy controls and demand from emerging industries continued to jointly drive the minor metal sector, with the commodity and financial attributes of scarce resources reinforcing each other, and the valuation-repair rally still extending. A China Securities research report stated that, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, rare earth exports in July fell markedly while the average price rose. July rare earth exports totaled 4,223.5 mt, down 29.54% YoY and 17.26% MoM, the lowest single-month level since March; cumulative exports in January–July were 34,706.3 mt, down 10% YoY. Meanwhile, the corresponding average export price was $12.34/kg, surging 103.14% YoY. The export mix tilted toward higher-value medium-heavy rare earth products; markets outside China accepted higher-priced raw material, and the tight global rare earth supply-demand pattern persisted. On the supply side, there was no growth for the time being; production at separation enterprises remained stable, and enterprises that had halted production earlier had no plans to resume operations. Downstream rigid demand support was moderate, and long-term demand expectations were improving. Rare earth prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the near term. A Citic Securities research report indicated that, against the backdrop of constraints from indicators combined with declining imports, rigidness in rare earth supply continued to strengthen. Affected by tighter tax policy, the operating rate of scrap recycling enterprises remained persistently low. Industry chain rigid-demand restocking, together with the approaching peak season, is expected to drive demand to recover. Emerging fields such as robotics, the low-altitude economy, and industrial motors are expected to open up longer-term demand growth space. The rare earth industry’s supply-demand pattern may remain tight, and as price increases drive performance, interim results of rare earth industry chain companies are expected to beat expectations. It continued to recommend the strategic allocation value of the rare earth industry chain. Recommended Reading: To learn more fundamental, technical, and policy information on motor raw materials such as rare earths, copper, and aluminum, please participate in: ~

Grupo José de Mello has scrapped plans to invest €492 million ($566 million) in building a lithium hydroxide refinery in Estarreja, Portugal, dealing a fresh setback to the country's ambition of building a fully integrated domestic lithium mining and processing industry. The project, led by Lifthium Energy a subsidiary jointly held by the José de Mello Group and its chemical arm Bondalti had been designated a "Strategic Project" under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act only months before its cancellation, and had already secured €180 million in public support that was never drawn down. Group CEO Salvador de Mello confirmed the decision in an interview with Portuguese weekly Expresso, stating that despite "all the effort made to secure long-term contracts to allow investment in a factory, this was not possible," and that the company "will not proceed at this stage with an industrial investment in lithium." De Mello cited weak conditions across the European automotive and battery-lithium supply chain, noting the market "is not responding positively" to reindustrialization investments of this scale. Smelting background: Lifthium Energy was established in 2023 within Bondalti before ownership was restructured to 75% direct José de Mello Group control, with Bondalti retaining 15%. The Estarreja site was chosen because it already hosts existing Bondalti chemical processing infrastructure, theoretically reducing greenfield buildout risk. As designed, the refinery would have had capacity to produce 28,000 t/y of battery grade lithium hydroxide sufficient to supply roughly half a million EV battery packs annually and would have created 150 direct jobs. Critically, the plant was engineered around an electrolysis-based "green lithium" refining process using water and clean energy rather than conventional acid-roasting, and was explicitly designed to be feedstock-agnostic not dependent on ore from domestic Portuguese mines, meaning it could have processed imported spodumene concentrate from any origin. Production was originally targeted to start in 2030, later pulled forward toward 2027 in some interim guidance, before the project stalled entirely. Bondalti had already committed around €35 million to development work and had begun environmental licensing procedures for the plant as recently as June 2026. A parallel Lifthium refinery had also been under consideration in Torrelavega, Spain, which secured over €21 million in Spanish government support in September 2024; the Estarreja cancellation casts uncertainty over that project's fate as well. The Estarreja decision follows the November 2024 abandonment of Galp's Aurora lithium conversion project in Setúbal, after battery partner Northvolt's collapse left the project without an anchor customer. With both of Portugal's flagship downstream conversion projects now shelved, the country's refining ambitions have effectively stalled twice in under two years both times citing the identical root cause: an inability to lock in bankable, long-term offtake contracts with European automakers or battery cell producers, even with substantial public co-financing on offer. Mining background: Portugal's only advancing hard-rock lithium asset sits upstream of this collapsed conversion chain the Barroso Lithium Project, developed by London-listed Savannah Resources near the town of Boticas in northern Portugal. Savannah first took a 75% stake in the project in May 2017, when no resource estimate existed, and moved to 100% ownership by 2019. The company holds C-100 Mining Lease 5.42km², valid to 2036 plus the adjacent Aldeia Mining Lease of 2.74km², valid to 2049, and has since completed more than 50,000 metres of resource drilling. Barroso is now classified as Europe's largest known spodumene deposit, with a JORC-compliant resource of 39 Mt containing 411,900 tonnes of Li2O at an average grade of 1.05% Li2O across five orebodies, plus a notably low iron content (0.8% Fe2O3) that favours concentrate quality. Potential extension zones of a further 35-62 Mt are still being evaluated and could materially expand mine life if confirmed. The processing plant is designed to produce roughly 191,000-200,000 t/y of spodumene concentrate at 5.5% Li2O modestly below the 6% Li2O SC6 industry reference grade over a project life generating 2.6 Mt of concentrate in total, alongside by product sales of low-grade pegmatite material and ceramic quartz tailings for the local ceramics sector Portugal has a long standing history of lithium mining for the ceramics and glass industries, though never previously at battery-grade scale. Barroso has been designated a CRMA "Strategic Project" and received a non-reimbursable €110 million grant from the Portuguese state toward construction capex, with Savannah currently targeting production from 2028. Notably, most of the project's future concentrate output remains commercially unallocated, leaving room for a future offtake partner or open market sales. Development has not proceeded without friction. A court injunction triggered a three-week suspension of construction-related work in June 2026 before the Portuguese government stepped in, declaring the project of national and European significance and lifting the halt. Local opposition has centred on the Barroso region's UN FAO "Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System" designation the agricultural equivalent of UNESCO World Heritage status, recognizing the area's traditional polyculture farming and land management systems with community concerns focused on water use, biodiversity, and land access. Savannah has since signed benefit-sharing agreements with two of the three local "baldios" communally managed lands covering the mining concessions, and hundreds of protesters gathered at a camp in Covas do Barroso in early August 2026 to continue opposing the mine, with organisers explicitly linking their campaign to the Estarreja refinery's collapse as evidence the broader domestic lithium value-chain promise is unravelling. SMM View : The collapse of both Portuguese refinery projects leaves Barroso without a natural domestic home for its future spodumene concentrate, exposing the project to a structural offtake gap at the very market it was designed to serve. In the absence of a European buyer, output is more likely to flow into the broader seaborne market, with Asian converters standing out as the most probable destination a pattern consistent with the raw-concentrate export dynamic typically seen in early-stage African supply before local beneficiation capacity comes online. That two separate Portuguese conversion projects have now failed for the same stated reason an inability to secure bankable long-term offtake commitments points to persistently thin confirmed demand from Europe's battery and automotive supply chain, even where state co-financing is on the table. Barroso's progress toward its 2028 construction target, further resource-extension drilling results, and any offtake developments will be key signals for how EU-origin spodumene ultimately positions itself against African and Australian supply in the global concentrate market.

UN Economic Commission for Africa executive secretary Claver Gatete has called on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to move from raw mineral exports toward local processing and value addition, calling the region a testing ground for Africa's broader mineral strategy. Demand for critical energy transition minerals including lithium could more than triple by 2030 under net-zero scenarios, with Africa holding about 30% of global reserves but just 1% of lithium output, the smallest share among minerals cited. Zimbabwe was named SADC's primary lithium resource holder, alongside the DRC (cobalt), South Africa (platinum, manganese) and Zambia (copper), with Gatete pointing to Zimbabwe's unprocessed lithium export ban as a policy model for the region. Minerals contribute about 10% of SADC's GDP, 25% of exports and 20% of government revenues, but only 7% of direct employment. SMM View: Gatete's remarks lend regional policy weight to Zimbabwe's ongoing beneficiation push, reinforcing the rationale behind its concentrate export ban as domestic sulfate capacity comes online.

Thursday, August 13, 2026 Following a brutal 30% decline in the price of gold since the start of the year, there are signs the yellow metal is coming back to life with the bullion price up 8% since the beginning of August. The more volatile silver price is up around 16% since the middle of July. The sharp pullback at the start of the year should perhaps not have come as much of a surprise given gold had gained 60% in 2025 and another 30% in January 2026. A contributing factor to recent strength of gold and silver has been renewed weakness in the US dollar against a basket of major currencies in recent weeks. A weaker dollar makes precious metals cheaper for non-dollar buyers. It is the mirror image of the dollar strength which contributed to gold weakness in early 2026. Dollar strength was exacerbated by expectations for central banks to hike interest rates following the US-Iran war in late February as higher energy prices fed through to higher inflation. Since gold does not provide a yield, rising interest rates make gold less attractive compared to stocks and bonds , everything else being equal. Renewed Central Bank buying According to The World Gold Council (WGC), central banks and sovereign wealth funds purchased 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, up 62% year-over-year. Poland was the largest buyer, followed by China, which bought its largest quarterly addition since 2023, taking its reported holdings to 2,346 tonnes. Looking ahead, the WGC’s annual survey found 89% of central bank reserve managers expect central bank holdings to keep rising over the next 12-months, sending a message that demand remains in an upward trend. A separate survey across 76 institutions pointed to structural changes in how reserves were managed, with more than half of central banks running domestic purchase programmes which involved governments buying gold from smaller-scale gold miners within their own country. The WGC describes this as a shift away from holding gold as a legacy asset towards treating gold as an active, strategic allocation amid geopolitical uncertainty, rising currency volatility and reserve diversification . Gold as a hedge Kevin Smith, chief investment officer at Crescat Capital believes there is a scenario where gold could rise to $20,000 per ounce over the next few years. It is a long shot, but not unprecedented. One of Smiths arguments is that the gold price relative to the S&P 500 index is as low as it has been since 2009 and 1970, which reflects the fact that US valuations are at all-time highs, implying there is a small margin of error priced into investor's expectations. Prior peaks in the gold to S&P 500 ratio have coincided with market dislocations. In the current set up, Smith is looking at a scenario where the AI boom doesn’t provide the expected investment returns, leading to disappointment which could cause the stock market to drop in similar fashion to the declines seen in 2001 and 2008, when the S&P 500 halved in value. “A 50% lower S&P 500, combined with a 5.25 gold-to-S&P 500 multiple, which is well below its 1980 peak of 7.58, though slightly above its 1933 peak of 4.76, also gets us to our $20,000 price target for gold,” argues Smith. All bets are off if interest rates stay higher for longer With Federal Reserve chair Kevin Walsh seemingly intent on establishing his inflation-fighting credentials, central banks could hike interest rates to bring inflation back to target, after missing it for more than four years. This would create a headwind for precious metals, which tend to do better in low interest rate environments. Despite these concerns, markets are also cognisant of the other side of the Fed’s dual mandate, which is to keep the economy chugging along and the labour market healthy. The bull market in US stocks means households have a greater proportion of their wealth tied to stocks than ever before, while the national US debt relative to the size of the economy is forecast by the Congressional Budget Office to climb to its highest level since the second world war over the next decade. These factors suggest the central bank will not act hastily to risk failing to meet the other side of its mandate.

Next week, macro data will mainly include China's July total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's July value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size YoY, and the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ended August 1, among others. In addition, the July PPI YoY growth released this week narrowed to 4.7%, and market expectations for rate hikes by the US Fed within the year cooled somewhat. Next week, close attention will need to be paid to the minutes of the US Fed's monetary policy meeting to further observe its subsequent monetary policy direction. For LME lead, *LME lead inventories fell for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of 39,200 mt, providing some support for lead prices. Meanwhile, LME lead Cash-3M remained at a discount, with the discount narrowing slightly this week to -$43.56/mt, indicating that ex-China spot demand was still relatively weak, which constrained further gains in lead prices. In addition, Middle East peace talks still faced significant uncertainty, while expectations for ex-China economic recovery continued. Lead prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs, and LME lead will trade at $1,880-1,930/mt next week. For SHFE lead, next week will be the delivery period for the SHFE lead 2608 contract. Before delivery, lead ingot inventories are expected to build as scheduled, dragging lead prices lower. However, it is worth noting that maintenance will increase at primary lead enterprises in mid-to-late August, mainly at delivery brand enterprises, and market supply is expected to tighten. Meanwhile, consumption in the lead-acid battery market was mediocre, and downstream enterprises' just-in-time procurement demand was moderate, which can be seen as a neutral factor. Lead prices are expected to rebound after testing lows, with SHFE lead trading in the range of 15,750-16,150 yuan/mt. Spot Lead Price Forecast: 15,550-15,850 yuan/mt. Consumption side, as downstream enterprises' high-temperature holidays end, some enterprises will resume normal production, and regular procurement demand is expected to rebound, easing the pressure from lead ingot inventory buildup after delivery to some extent. Supply side, both increases and decreases are expected to coexist. Maintenance at primary lead enterprises will bring a certain reduction in supply, and with smelters holding prices firm when selling, spot lead discounts will widen only to a limited extent. Meanwhile, as losses at secondary lead enterprises gradually narrow, production resumption expectations will strengthen, and market supply may increase somewhat; secondary refined lead is expected to continue trading at a discount.

[SMM Rare Earth News] According to foreign media reports, Malaysia and Australia recently agreed to strengthen cooperation on rare earths and critical minerals and to explore developing NdFeB magnet manufacturing capabilities in Malaysia. The Malaysian side said it would leverage Australia's technological strengths to improve the rare earth value chain and strengthen cooperation on rare earth processing scrap management. Australia's Lynas already operates a rare earth processing plant in Kuantan, Malaysia, and cooperation between the two sides is expected to extend further downstream into the magnetic materials sector.

Data released Friday by South Korea's Ministry of Science and ICT showed that, driven by sustained global investment in AI, the country's July exports of information and communication technology (ICT) products surged 140.6% YoY. July ICT export value reached $53.4 billion, up from $22.2 billion a year earlier. The ministry said this was the highest July figure on record. South Korea's July ICT imports rose 37.3% YoY to $18.3 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $35.1 billion. By product, driven by strong demand for AI-related chips, semiconductor exports soared 178.8% YoY to $41 billion, extending their growth streak to 17 consecutive months. Exports of computers and communications equipment soared 353.9% YoY to $4.9 billion, and mobile phone exports rose 62.6% YoY to $1.6 billion. By destination, combined exports to China and Hong Kong surged 194.7% YoY. Exports to the US jumped 187% YoY, exports to Vietnam rose 115.7% YoY, exports to the EU grew 202% YoY, and exports to India increased 128.2% YoY.

TrendForce’s latest report points out that, affected by the sluggish macroeconomic recovery, geopolitical factors, and conservative corporate capital expenditure, global LED lighting market demand remains in a short-term adjustment phase, with limited growth momentum in the three core markets of Europe, the US, and China. However, driven by global energy-efficiency regulations, energy-saving retrofits, and net-zero emissions (ESG) targets, lighting producers are accelerating their shift away from traditional price competition and actively moving toward high-value-added areas such as smart lighting and specialized professional scenarios, driving the industry from “volume expansion” toward “product structure and application value upgrade.” TrendForce estimates that by 2030, the global LED general lighting market size is expected to reach $60.942 billion, with a CAGR of 2.6% from 2025 to 2030.

August 13, 2026 The Chinese gold market showed a clear dichotomy in the first half of 2026: whilst demand for jewellery slumped amid record prices, physical investment products recorded strong growth. According to data from the China Gold Association (CGA), China’s total consumption rose slightly by 1.23 per cent to 511.41 tonnes (previous year: 505.21 tonnes). Investment demand offsets slump in jewellery High gold retail prices and changes to tax rules had a noticeable dampening effect on consumers. Nevertheless, there was a significant shift towards physical assets as a store of value: • Jewellery: −33.88 per cent to 132.13 tonnes • Bullion & coins: +28.42% to 339.34 tonnes • Industry & other: −2.90% to 39.94 tonnes Retail investors made targeted use of price corrections to make additional purchases via domestic banks. As a result, the investment sector more than fully offset the slump in the jewellery sector. Domestic production slumps – strategic focus on physical metal In parallel with the shift in demand, domestic supply contracted: China’s mining output from its own raw materials fell by 14.62 per cent to 152.91 tonnes. The main cause was regulatory environmental requirements and safety inspections, which led to temporary shutdowns. By contrast, the processing of imported ores rose by 4.62 per cent to 77.08 tonnes. Overall, domestic production thus fell by 9.01 per cent to 229.99 tonnes. For commodity investors, market expert Willem Middelkoop ( Commodity Discovery Fund ) places these developments within a broader macroeconomic context. He sees a familiar pattern in China’s approach: the state is systematically using price dips to make strategic purchases – much as it has done with oil and copper. Middelkoop does not interpret the recent consistent restriction by major Chinese banks on retail investors’ access to leveraged paper and futures trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) as a market crisis. Rather, he sees it as a state-directed measure to defuse speculative overheating and a targeted redirection of private capital away from paper-based derivatives towards physically backed holdings. By curbing leveraged trades, financial institutions are reducing systemic risks in the domestic market and forcing capital to be tied up directly in physical assets. China thus remains the key driver of the global market: whilst high prices are dampening cyclical jewellery consumption, they are accelerating the strategic, long-term accumulation of physical metal. Against the backdrop of declining domestic production, this development is simultaneously exacerbating China’s structural dependence on imports of raw gold and ores – a trend that is likely to increasingly constrain physical liquidity on Western trading markets. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/china-s-appetite-for-gold-is-growing-investors-are-increasingly-turning-to-gold-bars-and-coins