SMM Nickel, August 20: Macro and market news: (1) The US Treasury announced the expansion of the scale of long-term nominal Treasury bond buybacks. It will at least double the maximum size of a single liquidity support buyback operation for longer-dated nominal coupon Treasury bonds, to at least $4 billion, effective September 9, 2026. (2) Following the US Treasury's surprise announcement of increased scale of long-term Treasury bond buybacks, the Treasury market rebounded, pushing long-term yields significantly lower. The US dollar index fell as much as 0.85% intraday, its biggest drop in three weeks, and hit its lowest level since mid-May. Spot market: On August 20, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 130,250 yuan/mt, up 2,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was 0-500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) surged in the night session and consolidated at highs in the morning session, reporting 129,560 yuan/mt as of the morning close, up 1.19%. Boosted by the US Treasury's expansion of bond buybacks and a weaker US dollar, both LME nickel and SHFE nickel surged, with SHFE nickel reclaiming the 130,000 yuan/mt level. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a range of 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Daily Commentary: Silver Price Breaks Out Strongly Amid US Debt Buyback and Dollar Weakness] SMM, August 20: The expansion of US debt buyback operations drove yields lower, with the dollar posting its biggest drop in three weeks. Combined with heightened geopolitical risks, silver prices broke out to the upside. The spot market saw weak demand, with transactions concentrated at discounts, causing spot silver to struggle to catch up.

SMM August 20: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,890.5/mt, dipped to $13,875/mt in the early session, then saw its price center shift higher to test $14,058/mt before finally settling at $14,051.5/mt, up 0.64%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, and open interest stood at 261,000 lots, down 8,415 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,020 yuan/mt, hit a high of 107,340 yuan/mt in the early session, then saw its price center shift lower and hit bottom at 107,010 yuan/mt before finally consolidating narrowly to settle at 107,230 yuan/mt, up 0.23%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, and open interest stood at 171,000 lots, down 4,636 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bearish positions. On the macro front, the US Treasury Department announced it will at least double the size of its long-term bond repurchase operations, and the news pushed the US dollar lower, offering support to copper prices. However, LME inventories continued to rise, still capping the upside for copper prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, warrant cargoes were released into the market, keeping spot supply ample. On the demand side, the pullback in copper prices fueled restocking demand from downstream enterprises. Overall, copper prices today are expected to show a narrow and subdued consolidation pattern.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,890.5/mt, dipped to $13,875/mt in early trading, then its center moved up to a high of $14,058/mt, and finally closed at $14,051.5/mt, up 0.64%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots and open interest stood at 261,000 lots, a decrease of 8,415 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,020 yuan/mt, quickly hit a high of 107,340 yuan/mt in early trading, then its center declined to a low of 107,010 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 107,230 yuan/mt, up 0.23%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots and open interest stood at 171,000 lots, a decrease of 4,636 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract drifted lower throughout the session on August 19. It opened at around $1,888/mt, moved sideways in a narrow $1,880-1,890/mt range early in the session, then gradually declined, hitting an intraday low of $1,871.0/mt. It saw a slight rebound near the close and settled at $1,886.0/mt, down $2.0/mt or 0.11% from the prior trading day. The trading range for the day was $1,871.0-1,891.5/mt, with a range of $20.5/mt. Trading volume was 6,780 lots. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2610 contract fell initially but then rose in the night session. After opening, it quickly dipped to 15,870 yuan/mt, then rebounded in choppy trade, touching a session high of 15,975 yuan/mt. It closed around 15,970 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt or 0.19% from the prior session’s settlement price. Night session volume was 23,831 lots, and open interest rose 1,506 lots to 81,480 lots from the prior day. Macro: On the international front, Middle East tensions escalated further, with Trump announcing the harshest ever economic sanctions on Iran, calling them “unprecedented economic war and isolation.” Fed minutes showed growing hawkishness, with most officials still expecting inflation to gradually decline but acknowledging persistent upside risks. US federal government debt topped $40 trillion. Driven by a sharp drop in the US dollar index and safe-haven demand, spot gold rose above $4,500 to a new high since June, while silver surged over 5%. The three major US stock indices closed slightly higher, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.5%. Trump suspended the 50% tariff on Canada for three days, and the US-Canada trade deal plans to halve steel and aluminum tariffs to 25%. On the domestic front, the “15th Five-Year Plan” for Universal Medical Security was released. The NDRC held a meeting on the “Six Networks” major project coordination mechanism to improve infrastructure collaboration. The China Gold Association issued a stern statement, saying that China’s gold industry chain is complete and has sufficient resilience to withstand external risks. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to consolidate at highs. SMM 1# lead price rose 25 yuan/mt. Suppliers sold as prices moved, with supply of circulating cargoes in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai increasing slightly. Quotations from mainstream producing areas were at discounts of 20 to premiums of 50 yuan/mt to the SMM 1# lead average price ex-works. The north-south market divergence was notable. Smelters in the north saw falling inventory and firm quotations, with spot discounts narrowing and turning into premiums. Downstream purchases in south China were scattered and lacking persistence, with discount-based deals dominating and thin trading. Secondary lead smelters sold as prices moved, but supply of circulating cargoes was limited. Secondary refined lead quotations were at discounts of 100 to 0 yuan/mt to the SMM 1# lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises showed moderate enquiry enthusiasm, making just-in-time procurement only, and spot market trading was weak. Inventory: As of August 18, LME lead inventory stood at 418,575 mt, an increase of 9,585 mt from the previous trading day; SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory totaled 65,490 mt, down 74 mt from the previous trading day. Lead price forecast for today: Yesterday, LME lead inventory surged by 9,585 mt to 418,600 mt, with high overseas visible inventory weighing on LME; in China's spot market, suppliers of primary lead and secondary lead sold at prevailing market prices, but with a clear north-south divergence in trading, and supply of secondary lead in the market was limited; recently, downstream lead-acid battery consumption has improved, but lead ingot procurement demand remained mainly just-in-time. Overall, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating at highs in the near term.

SMM, August 20: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.23%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.23%. SHFE lead gained 0.19%. SHFE zinc lost 0.16%, SHFE tin rose 0.92%. SHFE nickel climbed 1.94%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.34%, and foundry aluminum main contract gained 0.37%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel rose 0.84%, iron ore fell 1.05%, and rebar was flat at 3,028 yuan/mt. Hot-rolled coil edged down 0.03%. In the coking coal and coke sector, the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.57%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 1.51%. Overnight in the overseas metals market, LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper and LME aluminum both gained 0.64%. LME lead dipped 0.11%. LME zinc added 0.51%. LME tin rose 0.54%, and LME nickel surged 2.03%. Overnight in the precious metals sector : COMEX gold jumped 3.62% to settle at $4,580.7/oz, while COMEX silver surged 4.83%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 2.13%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 2.58%. Overnight closing prices as of 7:22 AM, August 20: Macro Front China: [Three Departments Jointly Issue Guidance Catalog to Further Improve National Carbon Emission Measurement Technology System] The State Administration for Market Regulation, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment recently jointly issued the "Guidance Catalog for Carbon Emission Measurement Capacity Building (2026 Edition)." As an updated version of the 2024 edition, the 2026 catalog further refines and improves the national carbon emission measurement technology system, providing clear measurement guidelines for the development of China's carbon market. Compared with the 2024 edition, the 2026 catalog has achieved comprehensive expansion and systematic optimization, with an expanded technical coverage scope and a significantly more complete standards and specifications system. Among them, key measurement parameters increased from 39 to 58, detection standard methods expanded from 82 to 169, measurement instruments and equipment grew from 108 to 229, national measurement technical specifications increased from 85 to 156, and public social measurement standards expanded from 55 to 115. (CCTV News) [Shanghai Publishes the 15th Five-Year Plan for Building a "Digital Shanghai"] The General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "Shanghai 15th Five-Year Plan for Building a 'Digital Shanghai'." The plan proposes that by 2030, the construction of "Digital Shanghai" will achieve leapfrog development, with significant outcomes highlighted in "internationalized connectivity, data value realization, and intelligent application." It will empower economic and social development and enhance governance capacity, promote deep transformation of production methods and revolutionary leap in productivity, and ultimately build a fully established benchmark digital city with regional driving force and broad-area influence. The city’s digital base is leading in capability, the blockchain development system is advancing, infrastructure is fully consolidated, digitalization in shipping and trade is accelerating breakthroughs, applications cover all industry sectors, and new-type infrastructure such as information and communication networks, computing power, and spatial intelligence has seen significantly enhanced effectiveness. International data cooperation is actively gaining momentum, cross-border data infrastructure is secure and convenient, and digital service platforms are diverse and rich. New-quality development momentum is driven by digital intelligence, innovation in data development and utilization is deepening, and the integration of the digital and real economies continues to deepen. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou Home Price Index Rises for Five Consecutive Months, Market Transactions Remain Active] According to the latest data on the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in July, the MoM index for new home sales prices in Guangzhou was 100.1, and that for pre-owned homes was 100.4. The MoM indices for both new and pre-owned home prices have risen for five consecutive months, further consolidating the market’s stabilization and recovery trend. Against the backdrop of rebounding home prices, market transactions remained active. As the effects of policies such as raising housing provident fund loan limits, providing special subsidies for “sell old, buy new” transactions, and state-owned enterprises purchasing pre-owned homes continue to be released, market activity has recently stayed at a high level. Since July, the YoY growth in the online contract-signed floor area of new commercial housing citywide has remained positive. From July 1 to 31, the online contract-signed floor area of new commercial housing in the city rose 5.8% YoY, including a 9% YoY increase for new residential housing. In the first half of August (August 1–15), the online contract-signed floor area of new commercial housing grew 15% YoY. (Guangzhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau) On the dollar front: The US dollar index plunged 0.86% overnight to 98.79. The US Treasury unexpectedly announced it will at least double the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks, sending the 30-year Treasury yield down more than 9 basis points in a single day, its biggest decline since October, and the dollar index broke below the 99 mark to hit a three-month low. Goldman Sachs forex trader Shah Praneet believes the expansion has more signaling significance than actual effect for the dollar; the Treasury is demonstrating its imagination to cap the long end, with the dollar becoming the pressure-release valve in the process. (Wall Street Insights) The US Treasury issued a notice stating that it is at least doubling the size of the liquidity support buyback operations for long-term nominal coupon securities, covering the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year maturity ranges. Currently, the maximum size per operation is $2 billion, and it will be raised to at least $4 billion going forward. The adjustment will take effect on September 9, 2026, and will be implemented during the remainder of the current refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026). The Treasury will provide more information on future buyback sizes at the next quarterly refunding meeting scheduled for November 4, 2026. The expansion of the repurchase operation scale reflects the Treasury's desire to provide stronger liquidity support to the long-term nominal Treasury bond market. The Treasury will announce the updated temporary Treasury bond repurchase arrangement later. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed meeting minutes showed that several officials leaned toward a rate hike last month, while many indicated that further tightening of monetary policy would be necessary if inflation failed to decline. However, at the July meeting, uncertainty still heavily influenced US Fed officials' judgments. The minutes stated: "Regarding the monetary policy outlook, participants reiterated that their interpretation of incoming data would be a key component of policy discussions." The FOMC decided in July with a 9 to 3 vote to maintain the benchmark interest rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari voted against, advocating for a 25 basis point rate hike. Two other regional Fed presidents who did not have voting rights in July — Schmid and Musalem — subsequently indicated that they would have supported a rate hike at that meeting if they had had voting rights. Most of the policy discussion at the July meeting centered on differing judgments about future inflation trends. The minutes said: "Most participants expected inflation to gradually pull back over the remainder of the year as the effects of tariffs and previous energy price increases faded, but many noted that the possibility of persistently elevated inflation remained." Additionally, the Fed meeting minutes showed that Fed Chairman Warsh proposed an idea: reducing the number of policy meetings per year for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from eight to six. The minutes stated: "The Chairman noted that scheduling six meetings per year, approximately every two months, would allow for more information to accumulate between meetings compared to the current arrangement, and would also provide more time for policymakers and US Fed staff to study and consider strategic issues in monetary policy." Subsequently, Warsh solicited opinions from committee members on this idea. The minutes clearly stated that the number of meetings would not be adjusted this year. A reduction in the number of policy meetings would mean a significant change in how the US Fed operates. According to CME "FedWatch": the probabilities for September are unchanged (67.3%) and a cumulative 25bp hike (32.7%); for October, unchanged (58.3%), a cumulative 25bp hike (37.3%), and a cumulative 50bp hike (4.3%). (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies: Deutsche Bank analyst Raja Sanjay noted in a report that UK inflation could rise further. In July, the inflation rate jumped to 2.9% from 2.6% in the previous month. He said: "The Bank of England's core services indicators were all revised up, highlighting some unease about the momentum of price increases." He added that due to ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, energy inflation also remained volatile. However, Raja noted that food price inflation had fallen to its lowest level since the end of 2021, and the pace of service price increases had also dropped to the lowest point in three months. Yet this may be only a temporary relief. He said: "There is good reason to believe that the direction of food prices in 2027 is likely to be only one way — up." (Jinshi Data APP) On the macro front: Today, data will be released including China's July Swift RMB share in global payments, China's one-year loan prime rate as of August 20, Australia's July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July PPI month-on-month rate, Switzerland's July trade balance, UK's August CBI industrial orders balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, US August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, US July Conference Board leading index month-on-month rate, China's July year-to-date installed power generation capacity, and the year-to-date annual growth rate of China's installed power generation capacity. Additionally, attention should be paid to: the US Fed releasing the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the Ministry of Commerce holding its first regular press briefing in August; FOMC voter for 2028 and St. Louis Fed President Musalem giving an interview to CNBC; and Alibaba releasing its financial results. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures extended gains from the previous three trading sessions, with WTI up 0.4% and Brent up 0.69%. Oil prices crept higher amid escalating conflict between the UAE and Iran. US EIA data intensified supply concerns, as refinery operating rates rose to the highest since September 2019, led by the Gulf Coast, distillate inventories fell, Cushing crude oil inventories neared tank bottoms, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to a 43-year low. Global Risk Management company's chief analyst Rasmussen Arne said that the escalation between the UAE and Iran, combined with the market pricing in a scenario of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, provided sustained support for oil product prices. (Wall Street CN） US President Trump stated, “I gave Iran more opportunities to reach a deal than anyone else. Regrettably, they missed this opportunity. Therefore, today, I am announcing the toughest economic sanctions ever imposed on Iran, which will be an unprecedented economic war and isolation.”(Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, two US officials told Axios that the US military has quietly established a shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz for entering and exiting the strait, handling millions of barrels of oil daily. Although the broader war remains deadlocked, this operation has achieved notable results. The operation has been ongoing for several weeks, and currently, 15 to 20 tankers have passed through the southern lane along the coast of Oman to enter and exit the Strait of Hormuz. Officials say about 10 million barrels of oil are shipped through the strait daily and enter the global energy market, but this figure is roughly half of the pre-war volume. This US-led operation is mitigating one of the most severe impacts of the war: disruptions in oil supply, which have driven crude oil prices sharply higher. Officials indicate that although the volume of oil shipped through the strait remains below pre-war levels, it has already had a clear impact on global oil supply.(Jin10 Data APP)

19 August, 2026 Highlights International and domestic gold prices 1 gained ground in August, partially reversing June’s sharp correction after a period of stability in July Jewellery demand reportedly strengthened: consumers responded to lower and more stable prices, while retailers and manufacturers replenished inventories ahead of the festive season Investment demand remained steady; gold ETFs continue to attract inflows, bar and coin demand held up, albeit softer than the heightened levels seen earlier in the year Activity in the futures market picked up in July, lifting trading volumes and turnover Gold imports rebounded in July, signalling firmer demand conditions. Looking ahead Demand conditions are improving, raising expectations of a stronger festive season. While elevated prices may continue to influence jewellery purchases, investment demand remains supportive. Correction gives way to recovery Following a sharp price correction in June, gold prices stabilised during July before recovering in early August, reaching their highest levels in over two months. International gold price (LBMA Gold PM) rose 9% in the first two weeks of August to US$4,391/oz, while domestic prices gained nearly 7% to INR151,744/10g. 2 The appreciation of the INR against the US dollar partially offset the rise in the international price, limiting gains in domestic prices. Shifting monetary policy expectations, a weaker US dollar, and renewed inflows into gold ETFs supported gold prices, contributing to the recent recovery in the gold market. Chart 1: Gold regains ground Month-end LBMA Gold Price PM and MCX spot gold price changes and movement* *As of 14 August, 2026. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council Domestic gold prices remain below import parity, 3 indicating local supply availability. Market feedback suggests that the exchange of old gold for new jewellery has increased market supply and kept prices at a discount to the landed cost. While discounts narrowed meaningfully, from around US$100/oz in mid-May and early June, to about US$45/oz in mid-August, they remained above July’s average US$34/oz. Chart 2: Improving market balance trims discounts NCDEX gold premium/discount relative to the official domestic price* *As of 14 August 2026. Source: NCDEX, World Gold Council Buyers return Jewellery demand has reportedly strengthened, as consumers viewed recent price action as a buying opportunity. Industry feedback suggests that deferred purchases returned to the market, resulting in higher footfall and a recovery in demand beyond essential wedding-related purchases. Manufacturers have reportedly begun receiving higher order flows, and inventory replenishment by jewellers has picked up ahead of the festive season, suggesting growing confidence in seasonal demand. Old gold exchange remains elevated and continues to play an important role in facilitating purchases. Physical investment demand, while moderating from earlier highs, remained supportive during the period of price correction. Lower prices continued to attract investors seeking strategic exposure to gold, while the recent rebound appears to have revived interest. Continued inflows into gold ETFs Indian gold ETFs continued to attract investor interest in July, albeit at a slower pace than in June. As per data from the Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI), net inflows totalled INR15.6bn (US$163mn) during the month, 55% lower m/m, while holdings increased by 1t to 120t, in line with our initial estimate . Total assets under management (AUM) rose 2% m/m to INR1,733bn(US$18.1bn). And positive flows are continuing; the first two weeks of August saw an estimated net inflow of INR11.79bn(US$124mn). Investor participation also grew; a further 57k new folios (accounts) were added during July, taking the total number of accounts to 12.53mn. Chart 3: Steady ETF demand Gold ETF flows in INRbn, and total holdings in tonnes* *As of end July 2026. Source: AMFI, ICRA Analytics, CMIE, World Gold Council Futures activity picks up Following a softer April-June period, gold futures trading picked up in July, indicating greater trader participation and hedging activity as gold prices stabilised and began to recover. Average daily trading volumes on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX India) rose to 14.9t, up from an average 13.5t over the previous three months, while average daily turnover increased 9% m/m to INR214bn(US$2.2bn). Despite the improvement, activity remained below the earlier elevated levels: average daily trading volumes were 59% lower than January’s peak and 8% below July 2025 levels. Turnover, however, was 35% higher y/y, reflecting the impact of higher gold prices on traded value. Chart 4: Futures trading edges higher Gold futures trading on MCX; volume and turnover Source: MCX India, World Gold Council Imports rebound Gold imports rebounded in July after two consecutive months of weakness, suggesting an improvement in demand and inventory replenishment by manufacturers and retailers ahead of the festive season. Import value rose to US$4.16bn, more than double June’s US$1.97bn, while import volumes are estimated to have increased to 40-45t, up from 20t in June. While recycled gold – primarily from the exchange of old gold jewellery for new – continues to supplement supply, the recovery in imports points to stronger physical demand compared with recent months. Despite the increase, gold's share of total merchandise imports remained relatively modest at 5%, compared with the average 11% during January-March. Chart 5: Imports rise Monthly gold imports in tonnes and US$bn* *Includes World Gold Council estimates. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, CMIE, World Gold Council Footnotes 1 LBMA Gold Price PM and MCX spot gold price as of 14 August 2026. 2 LBMA Gold Price PM and MCX spot gold price as of 14 August 2026. 3 Import parity or landed price is the international gold price (LBMA Gold Price AM) adjusted for import tax. Source： https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/india-gold-market-update-recovery-taking-shape

SMM News on August 19: Metal markets: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market were nearly all down. SHFE copper fell 1%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.94%. SHFE lead rose 0.19%. SHFE zinc fell 1.44%. SHFE tin fell 1.35%. SHFE nickel fell 0.58%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.26%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.42%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.4%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.85%, rebar rose 0.27%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.4%. Stainless steel edged up. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.18%, the most-traded coke contract rose 2.17%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:42 AM, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.15%, LME aluminum and LME zinc both rose 0.03%. LME lead fell 0.05%. LME tin fell 0.41%. LME nickel fell 0.3%. Precious metals, as of 11:42 AM, COMEX gold fell 0.23%, COMEX silver fell 1.35%. On the domestic precious metals front: SHFE gold fell 1.02%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 4.04%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.44%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 2.82%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 2.17% to 1,717 points. As of 11:42 AM on August 19, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Global bond yields collectively rose, with US Treasury yields hitting multi-year highs, putting precious metals under pressure and triggering a pullback. The spot market saw discount widening, with transactions concentrated at slight discounts, while demand remained cautious... Macro front China: [Shanghai: Focusing on innovation in key areas such as computing power to form an AI pioneer industry cluster with Zhangjiang Core Park as the demonstration leader] The Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission issued the "Shanghai Zhangjiang High-Tech Industrial Development Zone Development 15th Five-Year Plan". It proposes to focus on innovation in key areas such as computing power, large models, corpora data, scientific intelligence, and applications, to form an AI pioneer industry cluster with Zhangjiang Core Park, Xuhui Park, Caohejing Park, etc. as demonstration leaders. It aims to enhance intelligent computing capabilities, break through disruptive chip architectures such as optical computing and brain-inspired computing, build an autonomous computing power system integrating supercomputing and intelligent computing with cloud-edge-device collaboration, and construct the Pujiang Public Computing Service Platform. Efforts will be made to advance next-generation large models, develop large models including brain-inspired computing, build Modu Space and Zhangjiang AI Innovation Town, and support the adaptation of multimodal large models to domestic computing power and ecosystem integration. (Jin10 Data APP) [The PBOC’s reverse repo operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 142.3 billion yuan on the day.] The PBOC did not conduct reverse repo operations today, while it conducted 327.4 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos. As 469.7 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 142.3 billion yuan was realized on the day. US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 99.59. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 65%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 35%. For October, the probabilities are unchanged (51.4%), a cumulative 25bp hike (41.3%), and a cumulative 50bp hike (7.4%). Bond traders are once again adjusting their strategies. After a series of data indicated that the Fed is almost certain not to hike rates for the remainder of this year, options market bets are trying to hedge against the risk of the Fed pivoting to rate cuts in 2027. This dovish positioning contrasts with the recent trend in the US Treasury market: long-term bond yields have climbed to multi-year highs, as a Fed on hold would keep inflation above target for a longer period. Meanwhile, options traders, whose positions are closely tied to the Fed’s policy path, are shifting their focus to signs of US economic weakness, which they believe could trigger a market reversal. This shift began to emerge last week, when data showed that inflation and consumer demand slowed in July, cooling market expectations for a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting. Option market participants then began to adjust their positions, reducing the magnitude of future rate hikes priced into the swaps market. Some options are even considering hedging against the risk of possible rate cuts by mid-next year. The Bank of America’s August Global Fund Manager Survey showed that a majority expected Fed Chairman Warsh to adopt a neutral stance at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium later this month. Among respondents, 31% expected him to deliver ‘hawkish’ remarks, while only 7% expected ‘dovish’ remarks. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: The UK July CPI month-on-month rate, the UK July retail price index month-on-month rate, the Eurozone June seasonally adjusted current account, the Eurozone July final CPI year-on-year rate, and the Eurozone July final CPI month-on-month rate, among others, are scheduled for release today. Additionally, watch: European Central Bank President Lagarde attends the "Global Economic Outlook" discussion at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; Kuaishou holds its earnings call. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, oil prices in both markets rose, with US oil up 0.79% and Brent oil up 0.68%. Crude oil prices rose, as the US and Iran reached an impasse over control of the Strait of Hormuz. On the 18th local time, Iranian Majlis Speaker Qalibaf stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not open until the US lifts the freeze on Iranian assets, removes oil sanctions, ceases military threats and operations on all fronts, and meets other conditions of the memorandum of understanding. Qalibaf noted that the opportunities brought by the memorandum of understanding in lifting blockades and ceasefires could help enhance Iran's economic resilience and rebuild its defense capabilities. He also emphasized that Iran is prepared to deliver heavier blows in response to any transgressions by hostile forces. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, Venezuelan Oil Minister Paula Henao stated on Tuesday local time that oil-related contracts were signed with US oilfield services giant Schlumberger (SLB) and independent producer Hunt Oil Company, respectively, to attract investment and boost crude oil production. This signing came as Caracas and Washington pushed to accelerate investment in Venezuela's vast but underdeveloped oil reserves. Politico previously reported that multiple US independent oil producers are expected to sign production contracts with Venezuela's state-run PDVSA in the coming days. Henao said that Venezuela signed a hydrocarbon production participation agreement related to the development and production increase of two oil fields, but did not disclose specific details on expected investment amounts or additional production volumes. She said that the Venezuelan government also signed a framework agreement with SLB to provide comprehensive reservoir research services nationwide in Venezuela. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract drifted higher throughout the day on August 18, opening at $1885.5/mt. It moved sideways in a range of $1883-1890/mt during Asian hours, briefly surged toward the end of European hours to touch a high of $1896.5/mt, then subsequently pulled back, ultimately closing at $1888.0/mt, up $3.0/mt or 0.16% from the previous trading session. The daily trading range was $1883.0-1896.5/mt, with a swing of $13.5/mt. The daily candlestick was a small bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow. Trading volume was 4,729 lots, open interest was 178,938 lots, and intraday open interest fell sharply by 5,863 lots. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2610 contract night session opened at 15,965 yuan/mt. After the open, it quickly surged to a high of 16,025 yuan/mt, subsequently consolidated lower to dip to 15,905 yuan/mt, then rebounded to trade around 15,955 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt or 0.31% from the previous session’s closing price. Night session trading volume was 33,162 lots, open interest was 79,286 lots, down 892 lots from the previous session. On the macro front: The US-Iran conflict continued to escalate, Trump said there were no negotiations with Iran, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remained fully effective, the UAE suspended trade with Iran, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continued to intensify. The US dollar index traded sideways above 99 for nearly two weeks, and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to 4.75%, a new high since January 2025. On the domestic front, a super-strong El Niño event could form this winter, likely the strongest on record, potentially disrupting power supply and smelter operations. The A-share market was mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.19% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.56%, as combined turnover on the two exchanges reached 2.4 trillion yuan. Housing provident fund policy adjustments now allow withdrawals for home decoration and property fee payments, with no income thresholds for rental withdrawals, benefiting post-cyclical real estate consumption. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead pulled back slightly, continuing to consolidate at highs. The SMM 1# lead price fell 25 yuan/mt. Suppliers' selling sentiment became more divided, with some holding firm on quotes or suspending sales due to limited inventory, while others sold at prevailing prices. Quotations from major producing regions were at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price, delivered basis. Secondary lead smelters showed only modest selling interest, tradable material in the market was limited, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price, delivered basis. Downstream enterprises had limited restocking needs, and inquiry interest declined from yesterday, leaving spot market trade somewhat sluggish. Although lead-acid battery consumption relatively improved, demand for lead ingot purchases remained limited. Inventory: As of August 18, LME lead inventory was 409,000 mt, down 1,975 mt from the previous trading day; total SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory was 65,564 mt, down 325 mt from the previous week. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, inquiry activity declined compared to the previous day, and spot market trading was sluggish; lead-acid battery consumption improved somewhat, but procurement demand for lead ingots remained limited, providing insufficient upward momentum for lead prices. Supply side, suppliers showed divergent attitudes toward shipments: some maintained firm offers or suspended shipments due to limited supply, while others sold at market prices; secondary lead smelters had moderate enthusiasm for shipments, leading to limited circulating sources in the market; coupled with declines in both LME and domestic lead inventories, this provided some support for prices. Overall, lead prices maintained a fluctuating trend.

SMM, August 19: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.89%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.75%. SHFE zinc fell 1.07%, SHFE tin fell 1.21%. SHFE nickel fell 0.25%. SHFE lead rose 0.47%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded aluminum casting futures contract fell 0.46%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Stainless steel rose 0.25%, iron ore rose 1.63%, and rebar rose 0.7%. HRC rose 0.67%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.22%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 2.46%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals broadly fell. LME copper fell 1.2%. LME aluminum fell 1.29%. LME lead rose 0.16%. LME zinc fell 1.68%. LME tin fell 1.12%. LME nickel rose 0.24%. Overnight, in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.88%, and COMEX silver fell 4.24%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.95%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.95%. As of 7:16 AM on August 19, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council: Broaden the Scope of Housing Provident Fund Withdrawal and Use] Premier Li Qiang recently signed a State Council decree, announcing the Decision of the State Council on Amending the Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Funds, which will take effect on September 20, 2026. The amendments include broadening the scope of withdrawal and use. For the withdrawal of housing provident funds to pay rent, the threshold that rent must exceed a prescribed percentage of household wage income is removed; new circumstances in which housing provident funds can be withdrawn are added, including for the renovation of owner-occupied housing, payment of property management fees for owner-occupied housing, and other housing consumption scenarios approved by the State Council. The investment and utilization channels for housing provident funds are appropriately broadened, and it is clarified that housing provident fund management centers may use housing provident funds to purchase policy-oriented financial bonds. [Ministry of Commerce: 18 Measures Introduced to Further Stimulate the Vitality of the Lower-Tier Market] On the afternoon of August 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce efforts to stimulate the vitality of the lower-tier market and boost consumption at the county level. A responsible official from the Ministry of Commerce stated that, regarding the optimization of the commercial environment in counties, the Opinions propose accelerating the renewal of existing commercial facilities, optimizing the layout of commercial outlets, improving supporting commercial services, and revitalizing idle resources and assets. The efficiency of urban-rural distribution networks will be improved, two-way distribution channels between urban and rural areas will be unblocked, and the coordinated development of online and offline channels will be promoted. In terms of enriching supply in county-level consumption, we will guide chain enterprises to accelerate their expansion into lower-tier markets, encourage local brands to uphold tradition while pursuing innovation, and develop new business formats in line with local conditions. We will expand the supply of high-quality, reasonably priced goods, accelerate the improvement of service formats such as elderly care and childcare, and promote the integrated development of commerce, agriculture, culture, tourism, and sports. (From the Wall Street CN APP) [Shanghai: By 2030, Striving to Build Shanghai into a Core Node in the Global Logistics and Supply Chain Network, an International Logistics Hub, and a Global Supply Chain Management Center City] The General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "Shanghai Modern Logistics Development 15th Five-Year Plan." By 2030, a modern logistics system characterized by internal and external connectivity, convenience and efficiency, value-added empowerment, and smart and green development will be fully established. Efforts will focus on improving the logistics network composed of "gateway hubs—regional bases—community-level nodes." The logistics industry structure will be continuously optimized, logistics operation quality and efficiency will be further improved, and the international competitiveness, industrial support capacity, and livelihood security capability of logistics services will be significantly enhanced. The goal is to build Shanghai into a core node in the global logistics and supply chain network, an international logistics hub, and a global supply chain management center city. (From the Wall Street CN APP) US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index rose 0.07% to 99.65. Bond traders have adjusted their strategies once again. Following a series of data suggesting that a rate hike by the US Fed for the rest of the year is nearly impossible, options market bets are attempting to hedge against the risk of the Fed pivoting to an interest rate cut in 2027. This dovish bet contradicts recent movements in the US Treasury market: long-term bond yields have risen to multi-year highs, as a Fed on hold would keep inflation persistently above target for longer. Options traders closely tied to the Fed's policy path, however, are turning their attention to signs of US economic weakness, which they believe could trigger a market reversal. This trend first emerged when data released last week showed that inflation and consumer demand slowed down in July, cooling market expectations for a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting. Options market participants subsequently began adjusting their positions, reducing the magnitude of rate hikes priced into the swap market for the coming months. Some options are even considering hedging the risk of a rate cut that could occur by the middle of next year. "Concerns about rate hikes have diminished," said Jeff Schul, head of rates at Constitution Capital, noting that positions betting on that outcome are being unwound. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through September is 65%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 35%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through October is 51.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 41.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 7.4%. "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos: In a Cleveland Fed survey, business executives expected CPI inflation to be 3.3% over the next year, down slightly from Q2's 3.7%. They saw no significant changes in wage growth (2.8% over the next year vs. 2.9% in last year's survey) or employment levels. R&D spending growth was expected to slow down, projected at 2.0% over the next year, below the 3.1% in last year's survey. Bank of America's August Global Fund Manager Survey showed that most expect Fed Chairman Warsh to strike a neutral tone at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium later this month. Among respondents, 31% expect a "hawkish" message, while only 7% expect a "dovish" one. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Data due today include UK July CPI m/m, UK July RPI m/m, Eurozone June seasonally adjusted current account, Eurozone July CPI y/y final, and Eurozone July CPI m/m final. Also in focus: ECB President Lagarde participates in a "Global Economic Outlook" discussion at the World Economic Forum's International Business Council (IBC) meeting; Kuaishou holds its earnings call. On the crude oil front: Both crude oil futures extended their gains from the previous two sessions overnight, with WTI crude up 0.81% and Brent crude up 0.51%. Al Jazeera reported, citing US officials, that Trump has directed his team not to negotiate with Iran until it is ready to sign an agreement. The official said there were positive discussions with Iran, but Trump decided to wait. The official added that there is no contradiction in the administration's statements on Iran negotiations. (Jin10 Data APP) While crude oil prices remain calm, diesel is seeing strong undercurrents. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement technically expired on Monday; Trump stated that the US is not currently negotiating with Iran but insisted the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating normally. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 293.4 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. Ukrainian drone strikes pushed Russian crude exports to a four-week low, disrupting supplies in both the Middle East and the Black Sea, making refiners the big winners. Jet fuel and diesel prices per barrel equivalent are both near 2022 crisis levels, while WTI is at just $84.92, generating extremely wide crack spreads. (Wall Street CN)