[SMM Precious Metals Market Bulletin] Customs data showed that imports of unwrought silver ingots with a purity of no less than 99.99% (i.e., silver ingots) rose significantly in February, reaching 206.76 mt. Compared with the previous period, they were up 499% MoM; compared with the same period last year, they were up 5,910% YoY. In addition, according to feedback from SMM market communication, affected by the price spread between physical silver ingots in and outside China and the continued stable opening of the import window, silver ingot imports are expected to remain at a high level in March. However, after entering April, as spot silver ingot premiums in China gradually pull back, silver ingot imports are expected to decrease.

[SMM Precious Metals Market Bulletin] According to customs data, exports of silver ingots (unwrought silver with purity ≥99.99%) totaled 716.03 mt from January to February 2026, up 8% YoY cumulatively.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Extended Losses, While Trading Sentiment Recovered Slightly] Market quotes generally moved lower last Friday, with the SMM ADC12 price down 300 yuan/mt to 25,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the price pullback and weekend restocking demand, market trading sentiment recovered somewhat from the previous period, and downstream purchase willingness to buy the dip strengthened, improving transactions for some enterprises. However, overall demand still mainly reflected rigid demand, end-users remained sensitive to price fluctuations, and the pace of restocking stayed cautious. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. The pattern of demand being under pressure is unlikely to change in the short term; downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and coupled with the weak trend in primary aluminum weighing on market sentiment, prices struggled to rise. But with cost support, downside room is also limited. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the trend in primary aluminum and the pace of downstream consumption release.

[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

Data released by the online customs statistics query platform showed that China’s refined tin imports were 1,101.12 mt in January 2026, down 28.86% MoM and down 52.82% YoY. Indonesia was the largest origin, with refined tin imports from Indonesia at 613.8 mt that month, down 3.53% MoM and down 66.36% YoY. Russia was the second-largest origin, with refined tin imports from Russia at 158.06 mt that month, up 691.52% MoM. Below is a breakdown of China’s refined tin imports in January 2026 compiled based on data from the official website of the General Administration of Customs: Source: General Administration of Customs Note: 1. Refined tin includes unwrought non-alloy tin (refined tin). 2. The total imports (total) also include data for certain origins not listed in the table above. (Wenhua Composite)

Data released by the online query platform of customs statistics showed that China’s copper cathode imports in February 2026 were 203,588.22 mt, down 18.78% MoM and down 33.28% YoY. The DRC was the largest origin, with China importing 70,661.8 mt of copper cathode from the DRC during the month, down 33.06% MoM and down 28.63% YoY. Chile was the second-largest origin, with China importing 25,429.03 mt of copper cathode from Chile during the month, up 8.18% MoM and down 32.18% YoY. The following is a breakdown of China’s copper cathode imports in February 2026, compiled based on data from the official website of the General Administration of Customs: Source: General Administration of Customs Note: 1. Including unwrought copper cathode with a copper content >99.9935%; unwrought other refined copper cathode; unwrought refined copper wire bars; unwrought refined copper cathode sections; unwrought refined copper billets; and other unwrought refined copper. 2. The total imports (grand total) also include data for some origins not listed in the table above. (Wenhua Composite)

[SMM Aluminum Bulletin] According to customs data, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 90,300 mt in January 2026, down 9.4% YoY and down 3.1% MoM. In February 2026, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 65,800 mt, down 28.2% YoY and down 27.1% MoM. Cumulative imports for January-February 2026 totaled 156,100 mt, down 18.5% YoY. Exports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 24,200 mt in January 2026, up 33.6% YoY and down 4.9% MoM. In February 2026, exports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 13,300 mt, down 24.0% YoY and down 45.1% MoM. Cumulative exports for January-February 2026 totaled 37,500 mt, up 5.3% YoY.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,714.5/mt and climbed to $12,715/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then saw the center move straight downward, before fluctuating rangebound and eventually closing at $12,340/mt, down 3.44%. Trading volume reached 33,600 lots, and open interest stood at 288,300 lots, down 4,872 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at and touched a high of 98,000 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices moved straight downward to a low of 95,920 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and finally closed at 96,340 yuan/mt, down 2.58%. Trading volume reached 103,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, up 9,911 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to increased short positions.

[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (March 9–March 13), the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 opened at 534 yuan/gram and closed at 541.6 yuan/gram, down 15.7 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, a decline of 2.82%. The weekly highest price was 577.85 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 522.6 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 opened at 408.75 yuan/gram and closed at 408.1 yuan/gram, down 13.8 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, down 3.27% WoW from last week’s settlement price. The weekly highest price was 430 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 397 yuan/gram. Futures trading: The most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 recorded total trading volume of 31,227 lots during the week, with total turnover of 17.368 billion yuan and open interest of 19,989 lots; open interest decreased by 1,894 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 recorded total trading volume of 11,077 lots during the week, with total turnover of 4.616 billion yuan and open interest of 7,612 lots; open interest increased by 11 lots WoW. At present, the US–Iran conflict remained dominated by political expectations, while the reality on the ground was still unresolved. On the political-expectations front, Trump frequently released marginal de-escalation signals to curb oil prices, saying the Iran issue was only a short-term military operation and expressing willingness to engage in dialogue with Iran; the TACO trade pulled oil prices back to around 90. On the reality front, Mojtaba, son of Khamenei, formally succeeded to power, and Iran entered the “Era of Avengers,” beginning to threaten the Strait of Hormuz; its foreign minister said the new leadership would refuse to negotiate with Trump. If the US–Iran conflict continues to escalate, it will push up oil prices and trigger concerns over imported inflation in the US, thereby delaying the Fed’s progress on interest rate cuts. On tariffs, after reciprocal tariff was overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration will seek a more solid legal basis to rebuild the tariff framework. The risk of re-inflation remained relatively high, and disputes over new tax rates and tax rebates lifted policy uncertainty to some extent. In the short term, Trump filled the tariff-rate vacuum through the 122 temporary tariff; in the medium and long-term, he may maintain a high-tariff framework via 232 and 301. In addition, the massive tax rebate pressure brought about after reciprocal tariff was ruled illegal will further increase the US fiscal burden, thereby reinforcing the logic of a weaker US dollar and providing support to precious metals overall. Supply side, NERSA announced it had formally approved Eskom’s electricity price adjustment plan for the next two years: electricity prices will be raised by 8.76% in April this year and raised again by 8.83% in April 2027. As South Africa’s PGM mining is highly dependent on electricity, rising electricity prices will continue to lift the cost center for platinum and palladium. The US Department of Commerce issued an announcement, making an affirmative preliminary anti-dumping determination on unwrought palladium imported from Russia, preliminarily determining the dumping margin for all Russian exporters/producers at 132.83%. In terms of valuation, watch changes in the US dollar index, which involve the relative strength of currencies such as the euro and the yen. Pay attention to details on the new administrator announced by the LME. Pay attention to the March 19 FOMC meeting, changes in economic data, and the impact of Wosh’s remarks on monetary policy expectations. The precious metals sector mainly benefited from the policy and political-environment tug-of-war during the US Fed’s midterm-election time window. From a medium- and long-term perspective, the foundation for a bull market in platinum and palladium remained intact. In the short term, be alert to the risk of a phased adjustment driven by a delay in expectations for an interest rate cut; pullbacks should be viewed as medium- and long-term opportunities to add long positions. Amid high fluctuations in platinum and palladium, pay attention to position sizing. As domestic and overseas markets are not continuous, the opening price of platinum and palladium often references the overseas night session; investors should monitor trading prices in international markets and be wary of opening gaps. Spot market, this week most traders holding cargo actively quoted prices. Some traders reported that supply was currently relatively ample while the market was relatively sluggish. Most downstream clients had sufficient inventory and mainly stayed on the sidelines, with only some downstream buyers making small, negotiated purchases to meet order demand. Along with continued cooling in investment demand, transactions were relatively difficult and price involution was severe. Overall, spot market trading this week was generally subdued.

According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, China imported 316,000 tonnes of unwrought copper and copper products in February 2026. For the January–February period, cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products reached 700,000 tonnes, down 16.1% year-on-year, compared with 834,000 tonnes imported during the same period last year.