SMM, June 26: Against the backdrop of sluggish downstream demand, product prices across the cobalt industry chain showed a downward trend under pressure. Cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride recorded five consecutive declines this week, while refined cobalt spot quotations also fell below the round-number level of 380,000 yuan/mt during the week... SMM compiled the quotation changes for cobalt products this week as follows: : According to SMM spot quotations, although refined cobalt spot prices rose 2,500 yuan/mt on the last trading day, they still showed an overall decline this week. As of June 26, refined cobalt spot quotations were in the range of 374,000~385,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 379,500 yuan/mt, down 4,000 yuan/mt from June 18, a decline of 1.04%. Supply and demand side, on the supply front, mainstream smelters lowered their ex-factory quotations to 385,000 yuan/mt. After the deep price slump, most traders suspended market offerings, and wait-and-see sentiment dominated. On the demand side, the rush-to-buy-amid-continuous-price-rise and hold-back-amid-price-downturn mentality continued to curb the downstream procurement pace. Alloy-type enterprises remained on the sidelines and postponed restocking, while some magnetic material enterprises released small procurement demand near 380,000 yuan/mt, making selective restocking. In the short term, futures still face choppy pressure. A stabilization in refined cobalt prices requires two conditions: first, an easing of market funding pressure and a reduction in low-price sell-offs; second, that prices of related products such as cobalt salts stop falling and stabilize, forming support for market confidence. Cobalt intermediate product prices, according to SMM spot quotations, as of June 26, cobalt intermediate product (CIF China) spot prices remained stable earlier, then edged down $0.025/lb on the last trading day of the week. Quotations stayed in the range of $24.75-25.5/lb, with an average of $25.125/lb. The overall price center changed little. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt intermediate products, mainstream miners and traders maintained their offers near $25.5/lb, while downstream smelters remained conservative in procurement, with intended purchase prices generally below $25/lb. Some smelters even planned to sell their intermediate products at $24.8-24.9/lb, turning to procure low-priced recycled black mass to control production costs. On the logistics side, since May, some Chinese-invested miners have gradually increased chartered shipping volumes, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments since June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to trend slowly upward in the following months, potentially forming concentrated batch arrivals after August. In the short term, end-use demand support is insufficient, and cobalt intermediate product prices will most likely continue to move sideways. Should prices strengthen going forward, a recovery in downstream operating rates and a repair of cobalt salt prices must form a resonance. Cobalt salt side ( and ): : According to SMM spot price data, cobalt sulphate spot prices continued to show persistent weakness this week. After five consecutive declines, spot cobalt sulphate prices dropped to 85,000-87,300 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 86,150 yuan/mt, down 2,350 yuan/mt from 88,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 2.66%. According to SMM, the trading atmosphere in the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week, with the spot price center slowly moving lower. Supply side performance continued to diverge: offers from primary smelters were relatively firm, with mainstream producers maintaining their minimum selling intention price above 85,000 yuan/mt; some recycling smelters and traders, under cash flow pressure, lowered offers further to 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, the continuous price erosion dampened downstream stockpiling confidence, with enterprises’ psychological price levels largely concentrated at 79,000-80,000 yuan/mt. Although some downstream purchase intention prices have converged with the lowest seller offers in the market, bulk transactions remained limited as the low-priced supply did not fully match downstream requirements in commercial terms and product quality. In the short term, the weak pattern of cobalt sulphate prices is hard to fundamentally reverse, and stabilization and rebound still await the material realization of downstream concentrated restocking demand. side: According to SMM spot price data, spot cobalt chloride prices also recorded five consecutive declines this week. As of June 26, spot cobalt chloride prices dropped to 104,000-106,500 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 105,250 yuan/mt, down 3,750 yuan/mt from 109,000 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 3.44%. From a fundamental perspective, the cobalt chloride market continued to be extremely sluggish this week, with scarce actual transactions and spot liquidity almost drying up. Supply side, most smelters remained suspended from quoting, and sporadic offers more reflected cost bottom lines and psychological expectations. Against the backdrop of difficulty in achieving sales without substantial price concessions, their guiding significance for transactions has been quite limited. Demand side, downstream producers still held some raw material inventory to maintain turnover. In an environment of weak end-use demand and continuous price erosion, the “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn” mentality combined with pessimistic expectations for the future further suppressed purchase willingness. Overall, although the pessimistic atmosphere in the cobalt chloride market was still spreading and the divergence between bulls and bears not fully resolved, a relatively positive signal emerged this week: current transactions could no longer factor in the semi-annual report performance window of various companies, and upstream offers in the market have stabilized after stopping falling, injecting a glimmer of hope into the overall pessimistic market sentiment. However, the direction for H2 remains unclear, and the guiding value of the July price trend remains prominent and warrants close attention. : According to SMM spot price assessments, spot Co3O4 quotes drifted lower this week. As of June 26, spot Co3O4 quotes fell to 329,000-341,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 335,000 yuan/mt, down 3,500 yuan/mt from 338,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 1.03%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market also remained extremely sluggish this week, with very few actual transactions. On the supply side, upstream producers still held divergent views on the market outlook, but given that this week's deals could no longer be settled before the semi-annual report deadline, most previously bearish enterprises had largely completed their shipments, releasing price pressure in stages, and offers began to stabilize this week. On the demand side, although June is a traditional negotiation window, against the backdrop of persistently falling Co3O4 prices, downstream cathode material plants generally adopted a wait-and-see approach; even when they had purchasing intentions, they mainly pushed for significantly lower prices, and the continued price decline in turn further weakened upstream shipment motivation. Overall, the subsequent trend of Co3O4 will still depend on the price direction of cobalt salts. On the news front, recently, the May cobalt product import and export data were released. According to customs data, China's imports of unwrought cobalt in May 2026 were approximately 673 mt, down 50% MoM but up 3% YoY. By source, the top three regions for refined cobalt imports in May were Indonesia (211 mt), Madagascar (93 mt), and Canada (85 mt). The sharp drop in imports this month was mainly because previously accumulated overseas low-priced cobalt raw materials had been consumed, and the prices of newly imported cobalt plates and cobalt beans were higher than other domestic cobalt raw materials, leading to reduced willingness of smelters to purchase for remelting. On the import price side, the average import price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $54,557/mt, up 3.48% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to May 2026 reached 6,589 mt, up 120% YoY. On the export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in May 2026 were approximately 370 mt, up 70% MoM but down 88% YoY. By destination, China's exports to the Netherlands surged significantly, with May exports reaching 205 mt, up 791% MoM. On the export price side, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $53,403/mt, down 2.17% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to May 2026 totaled 2,161 mt, down 79% YoY. Cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 were approximately 2,584 mt in physical content, up 107% MoM and down 95% YoY, of which imports from the DRC were approximately 2,066 mt in physical content, up 119% MoM and down 96% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 was $16,607/mt in physical content, down 3.37% MoM. It is reported that since May, some Chinese miners have been increasing shipment bookings, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments from June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to slowly increase in the coming months, and bulk arrivals are expected after August.

With the continued expansion of aluminum processing and downstream industries in Southeast Asia, regional aluminum billet production, consumption and trade markets have attracted growing attention. Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are not only important aluminum billet production and consumption hubs in Southeast Asia, but also play a key role in regional aluminum billet trade flows. Markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia, meanwhile, are still at a stage where local processing capacity development and demand for imported aluminum billet are growing simultaneously. Since March 2026, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has caused significant disruption to the global aluminum supply chain. On the one hand, uncertainty over the supply of primary aluminum and aluminum processed products from the Middle East has increased, pushing up procurement interest in primary aluminum, aluminum billet and secondary aluminum resources across Asian markets outside China. On the other hand, fluctuations in crude oil prices and ocean freight costs have further lifted regional aluminum processing and trading costs. Against this backdrop, LME aluminum prices, Asian regional premiums and Southeast Asian local aluminum billet processing fees have all fluctuated to varying degrees. At the same time, changes in the SHFE/LME price ratio have periodically affected the export arbitrage window for Chinese aluminum processed products. When overseas aluminum prices are stronger than domestic prices and export margins improve, Chinese aluminum processed products and some processing-trade resources show greater willingness to flow into the Southeast Asian market, creating certain disruptions to local billet supply-demand dynamics and quotations. When the price spread narrows, however, regional pricing returns to a framework driven jointly by local supply, imports from the Middle East and other overseas resources. Trade Flows From the perspective of export destinations, the flow of Southeast Asian products under HS760120 is relatively concentrated. In 2025, the top ten export destinations for Southeast Asian HS760120 products totaled around 1.2695 million mt, accounting for approximately 93.3% of total Southeast Asian exports. China was the largest destination, with full-year exports of around 602,100 mt, accounting for approximately 44.3%. Japan, Vietnam and India followed, with around 149,300 mt, 143,500 mt and 111,700 mt respectively, accounting for approximately 11.0%, 10.5% and 8.2%. It should be noted that HS760120 includes primary aluminum alloy ingots, secondary aluminum alloy ingots, other aluminum alloy billets and some cast aluminum alloy products. Therefore, this data mainly serves as a reference for observing trade flows of unwrought aluminum alloys and aluminum alloy billets in Southeast Asia, and cannot be directly equated with 6063 aluminum billet export volumes. Entering 2026, affected by the escalation of the Middle East conflict, uncertainty in the global supply chain for primary aluminum and aluminum processed products increased, and trade flows of aluminum raw materials and aluminum billets in Asia saw certain adjustments. Data shows that total Southeast Asian HS760120 exports fell to around 88,800 mt in February 2026, before rebounding to around 110,700 mt in March and further increasing to around 116,600 mt in April. From February to April, cumulative growth reached approximately 31.2%. In terms of destination changes, China remained the largest export destination, although exports to China declined in April compared with March. India, South Korea, Taiwan, China and Japan showed more obvious increases from March to April. Among them, exports to India rose from around 8,200 mt in February to around 15,700 mt in April; exports to South Korea increased from around 2,400 mt in February to around 10,000 mt in April; exports to Taiwan, China climbed from around 1,500 mt in February to around 4,100 mt in April; while exports to Japan recovered to around 13,700 mt in April. Overall, the rebound in Southeast Asian HS760120 exports from February to April 2026 reflected, on the one hand, the gradual recovery of regional trade after the Chinese New Year holiday. On the other hand, it may also have been related to Asian buyers increasing procurement of Southeast Asian regional resources and supplementing alternative supply sources after the Middle East conflict raised supply risks for overseas primary aluminum, aluminum billet and secondary aluminum. Considering that China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China are all important aluminum processing and consumption markets in Asia, the increase in Southeast Asian product flows to these markets indicates that regional unwrought aluminum alloys and aluminum alloy billets have played a certain supplementary and balancing role in trade during periods of supply chain disruption. For the 6063 aluminum billet market, this trend cannot be directly equated with changes in 6063 aluminum billet exports, but it can serve as an important reference for assessing the circulation activity of aluminum billets and aluminum alloy raw materials in Southeast Asia, regional substitution demand and fluctuations in processing fees. Market and Price Analysis With the continued expansion of aluminum processing and downstream enterprises in Southeast Asia, the situation of 6063 aluminum billet differs across countries due to variations in processing levels and downstream demand. Overall, Malaysia and Thailand are the main aluminum billet producing countries in the region and also have certain local consumption capacity. Vietnam’s aluminum processing capacity is growing rapidly, but some local quotations are still mainly for non-homogenized cast billets. Markets such as Cambodia and the Philippines remain at a stage where local processing capacity development coexists with demand for imported aluminum billet. In terms of homogenization status, mainstream 6063 aluminum billet quotations in Malaysia and Thailand usually already include homogenization treatment, and the relevant homogenization cost is mostly included in the aluminum billet processing fee quoted by producers. A small number of non-homogenized 6063 aluminum billet quotations also exist in the Thai market, which can be used to observe the basic processing cost of cast billets. The situation in Vietnam is different. As some enterprises mainly quote non-homogenized cast billets, the apparent processing fee for 6063 aluminum billet is usually around $50-100/mt lower than homogenized quotations in Malaysia and Thailand. Aluminum billet homogenization is an important heat-treatment process in the production of 6063 aluminum billet. It usually refers to placing cast aluminum billets into a homogenizing furnace for heating, holding and cooling treatment, so that the internal composition distribution of the billet becomes more uniform and microstructural segregation formed during casting is improved. For 6063 aluminum billet, homogenization helps improve stability in the subsequent extrusion process, reduce extrusion cracking, surface defects and performance fluctuations, and improve the surface quality and yield of extruded profiles. Therefore, in the aluminum extrusion value chain, homogenized aluminum billet generally has higher use value than non-homogenized cast billet. According to SMM market research, since March 2026, under the influence of factors such as the escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, tighter supply of overseas primary aluminum and aluminum billet resources, and fluctuations in energy and ocean freight costs, 6063 aluminum billet processing fees in major Southeast Asian countries rose to varying degrees. Among them, processing fees for homogenized 6063 aluminum billet in Malaysia and Thailand once increased from the previous $200-250/mt to $250-300/mt, with some high-end quotations even exceeding $300/mt during the peak period. As the Middle East situation eased periodically in mid-June, 6063 aluminum billet processing fees in Malaysia and Thailand declined. At present, mainstream 6063 aluminum billet processing fees in Malaysia have stabilized around $250/mt, and mainstream processing fees for homogenized aluminum billet in Thailand have also stabilized around $250/mt. However, due to differences in raw material structure, product status and quotation basis among enterprises, processing fees still show a wide range. In Thailand, some 6063 aluminum billet processing fees have fallen to as low as around $100-150/mt. In Vietnam, from March to June, 6063 aluminum billet processing fees rose from the previous $150-200/mt to $200-250/mt, before falling back to around $200/mt in mid-June. In addition, from the perspective of the imported aluminum billet arrival market, from May to June, SMM learned that CIF Thailand and Malaysia 6063 aluminum billet premiums/discounts were mostly around a premium of $100/mt, while some low-priced resources even fell to a discount of around $100/mt. These resources were mainly 6063 aluminum billets processed in China under processing trade and then re-exported to the Southeast Asian market. Amid cost advantages and an increase in cargo inflows at certain stages, these resources exerted some impact on the local aluminum billet market in Southeast Asia. From March to April, affected by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, uncertainty over some Middle Eastern aluminum supply increased. Asian buyers in India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China showed higher interest in Southeast Asian aluminum billets and related aluminum alloy resources, driving some Southeast Asian aluminum billet resources to flow out of the region and supporting stronger regional quotations. However, entering May and June, as Chinese aluminum billets flowed into markets such as Thailand and Malaysia through processing trade and re-export channels, competition pressure faced by local Southeast Asian aluminum billet plants increased. SMM research shows that sales pressure for some 6063 aluminum billet producers in Malaysia and Thailand has increased compared with earlier levels, and low-priced imported arrival resources have put certain downward pressure on local ex-works processing fees and the transaction price center. Outlook for Southeast Asian Aluminum Processing Looking ahead, the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet market will continue to evolve around regional processing capacity expansion, import substitution, changes in raw material structure and overseas low-carbon requirements. In the short term, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam will remain the core markets for 6063 aluminum billet production and consumption in Southeast Asia. Malaysia and Thailand have relatively mature local billet casting and homogenization capacity, and their pricing systems are closer to a quotation logic based on “LME + regional premium + homogenized processing fee.” Vietnam, meanwhile, still has room for growth in aluminum billet demand as aluminum extrusion and downstream processing capacity improves, but the quotation basis for homogenized and non-homogenized products still needs to be further differentiated. Although local sample coverage in markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia remains limited at present, with the advancement of local aluminum processing projects, future demand for imported aluminum billet, secondary aluminum billet and intra-regional trade flows will remain worth monitoring. In the medium to long term, CBAM and overseas customers’ low-carbon procurement requirements may further drive segmentation in the price system of the Southeast Asian aluminum value chain. For the Southeast Asian aluminum billet market, the impact of CBAM may not necessarily be directly reflected through large-scale exports of aluminum billet itself to Europe, but may instead be transmitted through the export value chain of aluminum profiles, window and door profiles, industrial profiles and other deep-processed products. In the future, when European customers procure aluminum processed products from Southeast Asia, they may pay greater attention to raw material sources, the ratio of primary aluminum, in-house new scrap and aluminum scrap, carbon emission data during production, supply chain traceability and third-party verification capability. Against this backdrop, enterprises with stable homogenization capacity, clear raw material structures, the ability to provide emissions data and low-carbon material options may gain stronger advantages in securing export orders and price negotiations. From the perspective of the price system, CBAM may not immediately drive a one-sided increase in Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing fees, but it will raise market requirements for differentiating “product status” and “raw material attributes.” In the future, price spreads between liquid aluminum direct-cast billets, remelted aluminum ingot billets and remelted aluminum scrap billets, price spreads between homogenized and non-homogenized aluminum billets, and differences between CIF imported aluminum billet premiums and local ex-works processing fees are all expected to become key areas of market attention. As the aluminum processing industry in Southeast Asia continues to expand, the 6063 aluminum billet market may gradually develop from relatively broad trade quotations in the past toward a more segmented price system differentiated by country, alloy grade, homogenization status, raw material attribute and trade term. SMM Price Points Against the backdrop of regional processing expansion and low-carbon trends, Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing fees have gradually become one of the key price indicators followed by the market. To help enterprises better track price changes in the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet market, SMM, after market research and improvement of its pricing methodology, will add a series of Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing fee, calculated reference price and CIF premium/discount price points starting from 3rd July 2026 (Friday) onward for market reference. The Southeast Asian 6063 Aluminum Billet Premium price points will be updated on a weekly basis every Friday at 12:00 noon Kuala Lumpur time, Malaysia, which is the same as Beijing time, GMT+8. Due to differences in settlement methods among enterprises, the full aluminum billet price may vary. For reference, it can be estimated using the following formula: 【LME Official Cash Settlement Price + Quarterly MJP + 6063 Aluminum Billet Processing Fee】. Details of the relevant price points are as follows: Cambodia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized) Premium, ex-works Cambodia, USD/tonne Malaysia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized) Premium, ex-works Malaysia, USD/tonne Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized) Premium, ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized) Premium, ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne Vietnam 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized) Premium, ex-works Vietnam, USD/tonne The SMM Southeast Asian 6063 Aluminum Billet price points will be updated on a daily basis every working day at 12:00 noon Kuala Lumpur time, Malaysia, which is the same as Beijing time, GMT+8. The SMM calculated reference price will be derived using the formula: 【LME Official Cash Settlement Price (D-1) + Quarterly MJP + Latest 6063 Aluminum Billet Processing Fee】. Based on this, SMM will publish low-end, high-end and average calculated reference prices. Details of the relevant price points are as follows: SMM Cambodia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized), ex-works Cambodia, USD/tonne SMM Malaysia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized), ex-works Malaysia, USD/tonne SMM Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized), ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne SMM Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized), ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne SMM Vietnam 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized), ex-works Vietnam, USD/tonne At the same time, to provide a reference comparison for the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing and trading market, SMM will also launch CIF Southeast Asia 6063 Aluminum Billet Premium price points for market reference. The CIF Southeast Asia 6063 aluminum billet premium/discount price points will be updated on a weekly basis every Friday at 12:00 noon Kuala Lumpur time, Malaysia, which is the same as Beijing time, GMT+8. Due to differences in settlement methods among enterprises, the full imported aluminum billet price may vary. For reference, it can be settled using the following formula: 【LME Official Cash Settlement Price + Quarterly MJP + 6063 Aluminum Billet Premium/Discount】. Details of the relevant price points are as follows: CIF Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized) Premium Summary Overall, the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet market is currently at a stage where regional processing capacity expansion, trade flow adjustments and price system segmentation are taking place simultaneously. In the short term, Middle East geopolitical conflicts, changes in overseas primary aluminum and aluminum billet supply, and fluctuations in energy and ocean freight costs will continue to affect Southeast Asian aluminum billet processing fees and import premiums/discounts. At the same time, changes in the SHFE/LME price ratio will also continue to periodically affect the willingness of Chinese aluminum processed products and related aluminum billet resources to flow into the Southeast Asian market. From the perspective of market structure, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam remain the core markets for 6063 aluminum billet production, consumption and trade circulation in Southeast Asia. Among them, Malaysia and Thailand have relatively mature pricing systems for homogenized aluminum billet, while Vietnam still requires separate differentiation in price basis due to the relatively high share of non-homogenized cast billet quotations. Going forward, as local processing capacity develops in markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia, changes in regional imported aluminum billet, secondary aluminum billet and local processing fees will also become areas worth continuous tracking. In the medium to long term, CBAM and overseas low-carbon procurement requirements will further increase the importance attached by the Southeast Asian aluminum processing value chain to raw material structure, homogenization capability, carbon emission data and supply chain traceability. Although CBAM may not necessarily drive an immediate one-sided increase in 6063 aluminum billet processing fees, it will prompt the market to more clearly distinguish between different product bases, including liquid aluminum direct-cast billets, remelted aluminum ingot billets, remelted aluminum scrap billets, as well as homogenized and non-homogenized products. Against this backdrop, the launch of SMM Southeast Asia 6063 aluminum billet processing fee, calculated reference price and CIF premium/discount price points will help the market more clearly track changes in regional aluminum billet costs, import substitution space, trade flow adjustments and price differentiation trends under the low-carbon transition.

Around June 24, 2026, import and export data for products related to the cobalt and lithium battery industry chain for May were released. The data shows that spodumene imports in May continued to pull back from April, reaching 681,000 mt in physical content, down 10% MoM, equivalent to approximately 66,000 mt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). On the lithium carbonate import side, China imported 37,555 mt of lithium carbonate in May, up 15% MoM and up 78% YoY. Cumulative imports of lithium carbonate from January to May reached 153,000 mt, up 53% YoY year-to-date... SMM has consolidated the import and export situation of battery materials, as follows: Upstream Lithium Concentrates Customs data indicates that spodumene imports in May continued to pull back from April, reaching 681,000 mt in physical content. By source country, port arrivals of Australian ore returned to relatively normal levels, with arrivals exceeding 330,000 mt this month, down 6% MoM; shipments from Zimbabwe that were loaded earlier arrived at 63,800 mt this month, down 41% MoM; exports from South Africa and Nigeria from April to May were relatively stable, with port arrivals ranging from 90,000 to 110,000 mt per month. Arrivals from Mali were low this month, at only 38,000 mt, which increased MoM but have not returned to relatively high levels. Additionally, after SMM screening, it can be seen that the incoming ore for the month was equivalent to 66,000 mt of LCE. Lithium concentrates accounted for 81% of the incoming ore, with the trend rising MoM compared to the previous month. Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM > [SMM Analysis] China's spodumene imports reached 681,000 mt in physical content in May 2026, down 10% MoM, equivalent to approximately 66,000 mt of LCE On the spot quotation for spodumene concentrates (CIF China), according to SMM spot quotes, the spot quotation for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) in May showed a trend of rising first and then falling. As of May 29, the spot quotation for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) was around $2,571/mt, up $31/mt from $2,540/mt at month-end April, an increase of 1.22%. > Click to view SMM's spot quotes for new energy products In May, enterprises that purchase spodumene externally for lithium extraction still hovered near the break-even line. At the beginning of the month, lithium carbonate prices rebounded, but spodumene concentrates followed suit and at one point rose more than salt prices, leading to continued losses. In the first half of May, lithium carbonate prices further rose, and non-integrated enterprises might briefly achieve slim profits on the spot; after mid-month, ore prices fluctuated at highs while lithium carbonate pulled back, causing enterprises to fall back into losses, which lasted until month-end. Enterprises that purchase lepidolite externally for lithium extraction continued to see stable profits in May. Although lepidolite concentrate prices fluctuated at highs due to tight supply, their increase was smaller than the rise in lithium carbonate, leaving profit margins for the smelting end. May 12: Yichun Mining auctioned 5,700 mt of 2% lepidolite concentrate at a transaction price of 5,760 yuan/mt, reflecting the tight balance at the ore end. As of June 24, spodumene concentrate (CIF China) spot prices remained at $2,291/mt. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, China imported 37,555 mt of lithium carbonate in May, up 15% MoM and up 78% YoY. Of this, 24,522 mt came from Chile (65% of total imports), 11,422 mt from Argentina (30%), and 1,023 mt from Indonesia (3%). From January to May, China’s cumulative lithium carbonate imports reached 153,000 mt, up 53% YoY. In May, China exported 201 mt of lithium carbonate, down 46% MoM and down 30% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to May totaled 2,087 mt, up 1% YoY. China imported 12,107 mt of lithium sulfate in May, down 33% MoM but up 53% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to May reached 71,000 mt, up 105% YoY. According to SMM spot price data, spot lithium carbonate prices in May also showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. As of May 29, spot lithium carbonate prices stood at 177,500 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from 177,000 yuan/mt on April 30, an increase of 0.28%. 》Click to view SMM New Energy product spot prices Looking back at the May lithium carbonate market, according to SMM, spot lithium carbonate prices in China fluctuated upward with a notable rise in the price center, and the average monthly price rose 12% MoM. From the fundamental side, supply-side disruptions continued to fester, while on the demand side, production schedules for downstream cathode materials and battery cells remained at high levels. The June production schedule is expected to accelerate further, and the supply-demand time mismatch remains unresolved. Upstream lithium chemical plants maintained firm prices and held back from selling throughout the month. The downstream showed divergence: some enterprises restocked on dips, but most had limited acceptance of high prices and mainly made just-in-time procurement, leaving actual transactions relatively sluggish. In May, spot battery-grade lithium carbonate prices kept rising amid fluctuations, with a notable gain at month-end compared to the start of the month. The most-traded futures contract briefly broke through the 200,000 yuan/mt mark during the month. As of June 24, spot battery-grade lithium carbonate prices were quoted at 154,000-161,000 yuan/mt, averaging 157,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, entering June, the lithium carbonate market saw a clear tug-of-war between longs and shorts, with the price center shifting significantly lower than in May. On the supply side, disruptions such as declining exports from Chile and license renewals for mines in Jiangxi provided bottom support for lithium carbonate prices. However, pressure from high warrant levels and expectations of Zimbabwean ore arrivals capped the upside for prices. Downstream material plants maintain a dip-buying strategy amid falling lithium carbonate prices, with stronger willingness to restock when prices hit psychological levels but lacking momentum to chase rallies. Upstream lithium chemical plants, on the other hand, still hold sentiment to hold prices firm. Currently, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensifies. In the future, close attention should be paid to the warrant inflection point, the arrival pace of Zimbabwe lithium ore, and the extent to which downstream production schedules materialize. Spot lithium carbonate quotes are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term. Lithium Hydroxide According to customs data, in May 2026, China imported 3,932 mt of lithium hydroxide, down 41% MoM and up nearly fourfold YoY. Among them, imports from South Korea amounted to 2,029 mt, accounting for 51% of total imports; from Indonesia were 360 mt, marking a notable pullback; from Australia and Chile were 1,204 mt, making up 30%. In May, China exported 3,549 mt of lithium hydroxide, down 36% MoM and down 36% YoY, with 2,799 mt going to South Korea and 608 mt to Japan. Battery Materials LFP In May 2026, China's LFP exports reached 7,625.4 mt, up 29.3% MoM from April and up 710.0% YoY from May last year, setting a new monthly high for the year. On the pricing front, total export value in May was $62.6062 million, with an average unit price of roughly $8,210/mt, equivalent to about 55,951 yuan/mt, up around 6.9% from the April average. In terms of export destinations, there was a notable shift in May: exports to the US were the highest at 3,014.7 mt, leaping to first place; Thailand ranked second with 2,030.6 mt; exports to Malaysia totaled about 886 mt, ranking third; Japan and Vietnam recorded 620 mt and 420 mt, respectively. Compared with April, exports to Vietnam and Thailand increased significantly, while those to Poland and Canada declined. The overall export center shifted towards Southeast Asia and the US, which is closely related to the locations of battery cell manufacturers' clients. Overall, overseas demand remains robust. China's total LFP exports kept increasing, achieving multiple-fold growth YoY. In the future, as overseas battery capacity gradually comes onstream, China's LFP exports are expected to stay high. LiPF6 According to China customs data, in May 2026, China's cumulative exports of LiPF6 were approximately 1,500 mt, up about 72.8% MoM, while cumulative imports of LiPF6 were about 53.5 mt. On the export front, in May 2026, China's LiPF6 exports were about 1,500 mt, up about 72.8% MoM from April and up about 15.5% YoY. Specifically, this month, LiPF6 was mainly exported to South Korea, Poland, Malaysia, Japan, and other countries. Exports to Poland were 451.88 mt, up about 33.89% MoM; exports to South Korea were 591.006 mt, up about 622.47% MoM; exports to Japan were 109.8 mt, down about 42.62% MoM; and exports to the US were 77.4 mt, down about 24.05% MoM. Overall, overseas procurement volume for LiPF6 recovered somewhat in May. Artificial Graphite In May 2026, China's artificial graphite imports were 980 mt, up 29.5% MoM but down 21.8% YoY. In terms of the average import price, in May 2026, the average import price of China's artificial graphite stood at 60,148 yuan/mt, down 20.8% MoM but up 37.3% YoY. In May 2026, China's artificial graphite exports were 50,038 mt, up 9.03% MoM but down 4% YoY. In terms of the average export price, in May 2026, the average export price of China's artificial graphite stood at 7,729 yuan/mt, down 16.12% MoM and down 12.91% YoY. Looking at the overall export data, while total artificial graphite exports recorded MoM growth in May, the combined shipments of the top five exporting provinces in China registered a 19% MoM pullback. Performance by province diverged significantly, with two provinces seeing their exports down sharply 40% MoM, another province posting an MoM decline approaching 30%, and major production regions showing marked export weakness. Flake Graphite In May 2026, China's flake graphite imports were 5,944 mt, up 87% MoM and up 22% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In May 2026, China's flake graphite exports were 7,641 mt, up 87% MoM but down 12% YoY. The significant 87% MoM rise in flake graphite exports in this period was mainly driven by the low base effect stemming from the delayed delivery of export orders in April. Affected by earlier logistics delays, production schedule postponements, and other factors, export shipments in April were at a relatively low level, and previously backlogged export orders were concentrated for customs declaration and shipment in May, driving a sharp MoM increase in export volumes this month. Phosphate Ore In May 2026, China's phosphate ore imports stood at 131,000 mt, down 36.4% MoM, with an average price of $93/mt, down slightly 2.6% MoM. Import sources were highly concentrated in Egypt (128 kt, accounting for 97.7%), while shipments from Peru and Jordan were interrupted. Exports stood at 32 kt, up 189.6% MoM, with Hubei resuming exports of 21 kt. The Egyptian government halted new export contracts in mid-May, intensifying supply uncertainty going forward, which may further pressure import costs. The provincial mix shifted dramatically as Hubei imports fell to zero and Guangxi reclaimed the top spot. Characteristics of China’s phosphate ore import market in May: First, total volume pulled back significantly, with imports down more than one-third MoM; second, sources were highly concentrated, with Egypt alone accounting for as much as 97.7%, while shipments from Peru and Jordan were interrupted; third, the provincial mix shifted dramatically, as Hubei imports fell to zero and Guangxi reclaimed the top spot. The Egyptian government announced in mid-May that it would stop signing new phosphate ore export contracts. The uncertainty surrounding Egyptian cargo supply will rise markedly in the coming months, potentially pushing import costs higher and exacerbating tight supply. At the same time, the recovery in exports from Hubei and Guizhou reflects a rebalancing of the regional supply-demand pattern for domestic phosphate ore. Cobalt Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In May 2026, China’s imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products were approximately 2,584 mt in physical content, up 107% MoM and down 95% YoY. Imports from the DRC were approximately 2,066 mt in physical content, up 119% MoM and down 96% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in China in May 2026 was $16,607/mt in physical content, down 3.37% MoM. Reports indicate that some Chinese-invested miners have gradually increased chartered shipments since May, with several leading miners progressively resuming shipments from June onward. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to slowly pick up in the coming months and are likely to achieve bulk arrival volumes after August. Unwrought Cobalt In May 2026, China’s imports of unwrought cobalt were approximately 673 mt, down 50% MoM and up 3% YoY. In May, the top three sources by refined cobalt import volume were Indonesia (211 mt), Madagascar (93 mt), and Canada (85 mt). The sharp MoM decline in imports was mainly due to the depletion of low-priced cobalt raw materials previously accumulated outside China, while newly imported cobalt plates and cobalt briquettes were priced higher than other domestic cobalt raw materials, reducing smelters’ willingness to purchase for dissolution. The average import price of unwrought cobalt in China in May 2026 was $54,557/mt, up 3.48% MoM. Cumulative imports in January-May 2026 totaled 6,589 mt, up 120% YoY. Exports, in May 2026 China's unwrought cobalt exports were approximately 370 mt, up 70% MoM and down 88% YoY. By destination, exports to the Netherlands surged to 205 mt in May, up 791% MoM. Average export price, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $53,403/mt, down 2.17% MoM. Cumulative exports in January-May 2026 totaled 2,161 mt, down 79% YoY.

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]In May, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy hit a nearly five-year low, while exports surged explosively

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Imports and Exports Diverge in May, Prices Fluctuate amid Narrowing Price Difference between A00 Aluminum and Aluminum Scrap] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2608 contract opened at its session high of 23,650 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bulls' momentum gradually faded, and prices fluctuated and pulled back overall. The contract dipped to a session low of 23,490 yuan/mt, then edged up slightly toward the close to finally settle at 23,545 yuan/mt, edging down 105 yuan/mt from the settlement price.

In May 2026, China’s unwrought cobalt imports were approximately 673 mt, down 50% MoM and up 3% YoY; unwrought cobalt exports were approximately 370 mt, up 70% MoM and down 88% YoY.

[SMM Aluminum Express] According to customs data, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy in May 2026 were 64,500 mt, down 33.5% YoY and down 12.1% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to May 2026 were 378,500 mt, down 18.6% YoY. Exports of unwrought aluminum alloy in May 2026 were 60,100 mt, hitting a new monthly high for exports, surging 148.7% YoY and up 29.9% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to May 2026 were 171,400 mt, up 81.3% YoY.

\LME aluminium prices have retreated steadily from their late-May peak, falling from nearly $3,680 per metric ton to around $3,480 per metric ton. More notably, the LME aluminium Cash-3M spread narrowed sharply over just one week, dropping from a cash premium of $104.56 per metric ton on June 1 to $15.17 per metric ton on June 9, a loss of nearly $90 per metric ton. This marks the steepest contraction in the backwardation structure since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.

According to customs statistics, in the first five months of 2026, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 20.68 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 15.3% (the same hereinafter). Exports totaled 11.91 trillion yuan, up 11.8%, while imports totaled 8.77 trillion yuan, up 20.5%. In May alone, total goods trade import and export value stood at 4.45 trillion yuan, up 16.9%. Exports were 2.59 trillion yuan, up 13.8%, and imports were 1.86 trillion yuan, up 21.5%. By trade mode, in the first five months, China's Ordinary Trade imports and exports reached 12.47 trillion yuan, up 8.3%; processing trade imports and exports reached 3.95 trillion yuan, up 22.9%; and bonded logistics imports and exports reached 3.59 trillion yuan, up 41.8%. By trading partner, China's trade with ASEAN totaled 3.52 trillion yuan, up 16.6%; with the EU, 2.53 trillion yuan, up 10.3%; and with the US, 1.61 trillion yuan, down 6.6%. Over the same period, combined imports and exports with countries jointly building the Belt and Road reached 10.57 trillion yuan, up 13.6%. By type of enterprise, in the first five months, private enterprises' imports and exports reached 11.81 trillion yuan, up 15.5%; foreign-invested enterprises, 6.02 trillion yuan, up 15.7%; and state-owned enterprises, 2.81 trillion yuan, up 14%. In terms of key commodities, on the export side, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 7.58 trillion yuan, up 18.4%; labor-intensive products, 1.61 trillion yuan, down 3.1%; and agricultural products, 300.79 billion yuan, up 1.6%. On the import side, imports of mechanical and electrical products reached 3.54 trillion yuan, up 25.3%; crude oil, 218 million mt, down 4.8%; and agricultural products, 618.16 billion yuan, up 7.6%. SMM has compiled the import and export data for selected metal industry products based on figures released by the General Administration of Customs, as follows: Exports: Rare earth exports in May 2026 5,490.4 mt, a YoY decrease of 6.4% vs. May 2025 . Cumulative exports in January-May 2026 reached 25,378.0 mt, a YoY increase of 2.2% vs. the same period of 2025. Steel exports in May 2026 10.341 million mt, a YoY decrease of 2.2% vs. May 2025 . Aluminum semis exports in January-May 2026 totaled 4,455.4 mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, down 8.1 %. Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis in May 2026 reached 632,000 mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, up 15.5% . Cumulative exports in the first five months of 2026 reached 2.685 million mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, up 10.4%. Imports: Imports of iron ore and concentrates in May 2026 reached 97.711 million mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, down 0.4% . Cumulative imports in the first five months of 2026 reached 516.258 million mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, up 6.3%. Imports of copper ore and concentrates in May 2026 reached 2.361 million mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, down 1.4% . Cumulative imports in the first five months of 2026 reached 12.275 million mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, down 1% . Imports of coal and lignite in May 2026 reached 33.265 million mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, down 7.7% . Cumulative imports in the first five months of 2026 reached 182.623 million mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, down 3.2%. Imports of rare earths in May 2026 reached 6,770.2 mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, down 42.1% . Cumulative imports in the first five months of 2026 reached 47,628.0 mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, down 2.8%. Imports of steel in May 2026 reached 451,000 mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, down 6.2%. Cumulative imports in the first five months of 2026 reached 2.255 million mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, down 12.2%. Imports of unwrought copper and copper semis in May 2026 reached 446,000 mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, up 4.4% . Cumulative imports in the first five months of 2026 reached 2.013 million mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, down 7 % .

The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on June 9 showed that China's imports of copper ores and concentrates in May were 2.3607 million mt, with cumulative imports over January-May reaching 12.2753 million mt, down 1.0% YoY; imports of unwrought copper and copper semis in May were 445,700 mt, with cumulative imports in January-May at 2.0128 million mt, down 7.0% YoY. On the export side, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis in May were 632,400 mt, and cumulative exports in January-May reached 2.6854 million mt, up 10.4% YoY. The detailed data are as follows (unit: 100 million yuan): Category Unit May Jan-May Cumulative Jan-May 2025 Cumulative YoY % Change Volume Value Volume Value Volume Value Volume Value Imports Copper Ores & Concentrates 10kt 236.07 588.41 1227.53 3056.32 1240.09 2307.89 -1.00 32.40 Unwrought Copper & Copper Semis 10kt 44.57 416.49 201.28 1838.53 216.50 1509.00 -7.00 21.80 Exports Unwrought Aluminum & Aluminum Semis 10kt 63.24 178.33 268.54 733.65 243.20 609.02 10.40 20.50 Note: "Express" data are preliminary monthly summaries from customs statistics and are subject to revision based on the official monthly data formed after correcting errors in the original statistical records. (Wenhua Comprehensive)