Recent Performance of Key Iron Ore Price Spreads Since 2024, large-scale iron ore projects in and outside China have been continuously commissioned, leading to a notable increase in iron ore supply. However, the sharp decline in downstream steel demand caused the iron ore supply-demand gap to widen continuously. The iron ore supply-demand pattern shifted from tight to loose, which also led to a year-on-year decline in average iron ore prices. Nevertheless, influenced by multiple factors such as iron ore supply and demand, port inventory, and steel mill profits, the frequency of price spread fluctuations among iron ore varieties increased. SMM reviewed the recent trends of key price spreads, as detailed below: ◼ Internal Differentiation Among Medium-Grade Resources, with Price Spreads Widening Significantly Affected by long-term contract negotiations, the trade liquidity of mainstream medium-grade ore deteriorated significantly. The lack of trade liquidity in certain varieties was directly transmitted to variety price spreads, with price spread fluctuations of mainstream medium-grade ore such as MNPJ intensifying notably. Among them, the price spread between PB fines and Jimblebar fines was the most sensitive: In early September 2025, the price spread between the two was 20 yuan/mt. As news of the ban on Jimblebar fines port cargo pick-up was released, its spot price came under pressure and dropped sharply, with the price spread quickly widening to around 50 yuan/mt. In addition, affected by the reduction in tradable varieties of mainstream Australian medium-grade ore, the variety price spreads between PB fines and Newman fines, as well as MAC fines, also showed a notable narrowing trend. Source: SMM ◼ High-Grade Premium Highlighted, Price Difference Between High and Medium-Grade Ore Widening Rapidly From Q4 2025 to date, price spread fluctuations among high, medium, and low-grade ore were equally intense. After entering 2026, structural contradictions in the iron ore market became further pronounced. Affected by declining raw ore quality from northern Brazilian mining areas, IOCJ fines supply experienced a trend of contraction. Coupled with the cost-effectiveness recovery brought by earlier price weakness and the release of concentrated restocking demand from steel mills ahead of Chinese New Year, IOCJ fines prices received strong support. Meanwhile, mainstream medium-grade ore remained tight in available resources due to trade flow disruptions. Against the backdrop of a shift between high and low-grade resources, the price difference between high and medium-grade ore widened again. Reviewing the period from November 2025 to March 2026, north China entered the heating season, and environmental protection-driven production restrictions became more frequent. As Chinese New Year and the Two Sessions approached, production restrictions were further tightened, with blast furnaces at steel mills in multiple areas of Hebei shut down, leading to a notable decline in hot metal production. Notably, during this period, steel mill profits remained generally stable, and some enterprises, in pursuit of higher output, tended to increase the blast furnace blending ratio of high and medium-grade ore while correspondingly reducing procurement of low-grade ore. Driven by this structural demand shift, the price difference between medium and low-grade ore widened. Source: SMM ◼ Lump-Fines Price Spread Experienced a "V"-Shaped Trend, Declining First Then Rising Since sintering processes generate relatively high pollution emissions, environmental protection-driven production restrictions typically prioritized restricting sintering and shaft furnace production. In north China and north-east China, during heating seasons or major events, if production restriction periods are prolonged, steel mills often increase the proportion of lump ore in their mix to alleviate tight supply of sinter and pellet, thereby driving lump ore prices to rise rapidly. However, over the past three years, the impact of seasonal factors on lump ore demand has gradually weakened, mainly for three reasons: first, steel mills have successively completed ultra-low emission retrofits for flue gas, reducing overall pollution intensity; second, sintering machines in Hebei and other regions have surplus capacity, and environmental protection-driven production restrictions have mostly been limited to within one week, significantly reducing the actual impact on production; third, steel mill profits have been under pressure, reducing the pursuit of hot metal production, and the proportion of high-grade ore usage has adjusted downward accordingly. Under the combined influence of the above factors, since H2 2024, lump ore premiums have continued to decline, hitting a new low by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the price spread between PB lump and PB fines also narrowed significantly, contracting from 195 yuan/mt to 63 yuan/mt, a decline of over 50%. Against this backdrop, the cost-effectiveness of lump ore gradually became more prominent. Combined with the extended environmental protection-driven production restriction period in northern China in November 2025, the proportion of lump ore usage began to increase. However, as lump ore premiums had remained low for an extended period, product returns were poor, and major mines correspondingly reduced lump ore production. Driven by both supply contraction and demand growth, lump ore premiums rebounded, and the lump-fines price spread widened accordingly. As of mid-March 2026, lump ore premiums have risen to a periodic high, up nearly 280% from early January. The lump-fines price spread has also gradually widened to above 100 yuan/mt. Source: SMM Key Driving Logic of Product Price Spreads Mix Adjustment Led by Steel Mill Profits (Core Driver) ◼ 1 Profit Expansion Phase: High Hot Metal Production Drives Demand for High-Grade Ore When steel mill profits widened and per-mt crude steel returns were higher, steel mills pursued pig iron production and tended to raise the grade of furnace feed. When selecting iron ore, they preferred to purchase high-grade or medium-grade ore. As shown, in H1 2025, profits of common billet at China's steel mills rebounded notably. Common billet profits reached a peak of nearly 350 yuan/mt. At this point, to boost production, steel mills moderately increased the proportion of high-grade IOCJ fines, as well as high-grade lump and pellet usage. Demand growth over a certain period stimulated high-grade ore price increases, and it was clearly evident that the price spread between high-grade and medium-grade ore began to widen. Source: SMM ◼ 2 Profit Contraction Phase: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement Boost Low-Grade Ore Procurement After steel mill profits contracted, to reduce costs and improve efficiency, steel mills significantly increased their focus on cost-effectiveness across iron ore products, tending to prioritize products with higher cost-effectiveness. Within the mid-grade ore range, steel mills preferred varieties with a larger price spread relative to PB fines. Meanwhile, weakening profits meant that higher pig iron or crude steel production led to greater loss pressure. Therefore, steel mills controlled pig iron production rationally from the perspective of economic efficiency. However, given the high comprehensive costs of shutting down or reducing blast furnace loads, steel mills tended to maintain normal blast furnace operations while lowering furnace charge grade and increasing the use of low-grade ore. Under these circumstances, assuming other conditions remained unchanged, the price spread between mid- and low-grade ore tended to narrow. Taking the market around October 2025 as an example, billet profits continued to decline, and the mid-to-low-grade ore price spread narrowed accordingly. Data source: SMM Dual Transmission Paths of Seasonal Effects ◼ Seasonal factors influenced iron ore variety demand through dual paths of "end-use demand fluctuations" and "heating season environmental protection-driven production restrictions" ◼ 1. Seasonal fluctuations in end-use demand: impact on steel mill production and raw material procurement pace The shift between off-season and peak season in end-use demand created cyclical impacts on iron ore variety demand. Off-seasons were mainly concentrated in summer (June–August) and winter (November–February): high temperatures and heavy rainfall in summer suppressed construction, while hydropower replacing thermal power in south China lowered electric furnace production costs and squeezed blast furnace hot metal production; in winter, construction sites in north China shut down and steel demand contracted. During off-seasons, steel mills increased blast furnace maintenance and lowered furnace charge grade to control production, with demand for high-grade iron ore weakening accordingly. During peak seasons (spring March–May, autumn September–October), downstream construction activity was released intensively, steel mills actively ramped up production, and furnace charge grade rose in tandem, strengthening demand for high-grade fines, lump ore, and pellet, supporting their premium performance. In summary, seasonal fluctuations in end-use demand drove cyclical changes in iron ore variety demand by influencing steel mill production and furnace charge grade selection. Transmission logic: end-use demand fluctuations → steel mill production adjustments → changes in total iron ore procurement volume → corresponding shifts in variety demand structure Data source: SMM Data source: SMM ◼ 2. Environmental protection-driven production restrictions during the northern heating season: direct disruption to furnace charge structure and variety premiums Heating season environmental protection-driven production restrictions primarily targeted steel mills in north China, spanning November to April of the following year . During this period, if air quality failed to meet standards, local environmental protection authorities would initiate production restriction measures, prioritizing restrictions on sintering machines and shaft furnaces, leading to tighter supply of sinter and pellet. To maintain blast furnace operations, steel mills were forced to increase the proportion of lump ore in their charge mix, driving a seasonal strengthening of lump ore demand, which in turn supported lump ore premiums and a rise in the lump-fines price spread. Transmission logic: environmental protection policy → sinter machine production restrictions → forced adjustment of furnace charge structure → stronger demand for lump ore and pellet ore → premium fluctuations Data source: SMM Coke prices affected the iron ore product mix through dual channels of fuel costs and profit margins ◼ 1 High coke prices suppressed lump ore demand As raw material directly charged into furnaces, lump ore consumed more coke than sinter and pellet ore, so steel mills typically controlled the lump ore charging ratio at around 10%. During periods when coke prices fluctuated at highs, steel mills tended to reduce lump ore proportions to control fuel costs. Before H1 2024, coke prices fluctuated at highs, and the lump ore usage ratio continued to decline, falling to a low of 9.8%. However, as coke prices underwent nearly a year of decline and entered a low range, combined with relatively low lump ore premiums and the push from environmental protection-driven production restriction policies, the lump ore charging ratio gradually rebounded, once exceeding 11%. Data source: SMM ◼ 2 Demand for high-silicon fines suppressed The higher the silicon content in iron ore, the greater the blast furnace slag volume and the higher the coke ratio. Therefore, low-silicon smelting is a key direction for blast furnace process optimization and a critical lever for cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Among current iron ore products on the market, mainstream mid-grade ore Si content mostly ranges from 4-6%. Brazilian high-silicon BRBF has relatively high Si content at 10-12%. Therefore, Australian ore is mostly used as the primary material, while Brazilian ore and non-mainstream ore serve as auxiliary materials. When coke prices were at highs, the cost disadvantage of high-silicon resources became prominent, and steel mills tended to reduce Brazilian high-silicon BRBF, Indian fines, and South African fines, shifting to mid-to-high-grade fines with lower silicon content (such as PB fines and IOCJ fines). Going forward, the iron ore oversupply pattern will become more prominent, while under overcapacity pressure in China's steel sector, steel mill profits will remain poor. Therefore, cost reduction and efficiency improvement will be a long-term direction, driving stronger demand for low-silicon, low-aluminum products. Consequently, mainstream mid-grade ore will remain the product with the best market circulation. Data source: SMM ◼ 3 Rising share of mid-to-low-grade fines under low profits High coke and ore prices squeezed steel mill profits, and steel mills no longer pursued hot metal production maximization, instead increasing mid-to-low-grade fines usage and lowering charging grade to control costs. Based on historical data, such situations occurred in Q3 2024 and Q2 2025. Auxiliary Variables: Inventory, Substitution, and Preferences ◼ 1 Product substitution effect: mid-grade inter-substitution and "high-low blending" substitution In the product mix of steel mill sinter, "high-low blending" and "mid-grade blending" are commonly mentioned concepts, with the core principle being to select the optimal products based on the cost-effectiveness of different iron ore varieties. Under normal circumstances, steel mills use MNPJ (i.e., mainstream medium-grade ore types such as Mac fines, Newman fines, PB fines, and Jimblebar fines) as primary materials, or adopt a high-low grade combination of " IOCJ fines + super special fines " as primary materials, and adjust auxiliary material ratios based on the acidity and alkalinity of the primary materials. Using mainstream medium-grade ore types as primary materials is the more common practice. When mainstream medium-grade ore types are periodically less cost-effective — for example, when the combined cost of "IOCJ fines + super special fines" is lower than that of medium-grade PB fines — some steel mills periodically switch to high-low grade combinations as primary materials to reduce costs. As shown in the chart, during March to April of 2024 and 2025, the cost-effectiveness advantage of high-low grade combinations was significantly superior to that of medium-grade ore, and therefore some steel mills in regions such as Hebei and Shanxi predominantly chose high-low grade combinations as primary materials during these periods. Data source: SMM ◼ 2. Inventory Structure Drives Price Spreads among Varieties: Inventory Changes and Price Transmission Logic Inventory is the most intuitive reflection of short-term supply-demand imbalances in the iron ore market. When supply is loose or demand weakens, port inventory continues to rise, and inventory levels generally exhibit a negative correlation with prices. Once inventory accumulates to a certain level, it tends to exert significant downward pressure on prices. Over the past two years, the inventory and price trends of Ukrainian concentrate (hereinafter "Ukrainian concentrate") have well validated this pattern. In November 2023, Ukrainian concentrate shipments gradually resumed, but as steel mills still had concerns about the stability of its supply, actual usage did not increase significantly, leading to continued port inventory accumulation. By May 2024, SMM ten-port inventory data by variety showed that Ukrainian concentrate inventory exceeded 3 million mt , exerting significant downward pressure on prices, with Ukrainian concentrate prices falling from 1,200 yuan/mt at the beginning of the year to 900 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the price spread between Ukrainian concentrate and PB fines also narrowed from 160 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt, and its cost-effectiveness advantage gradually emerged, driving a notable increase in steel mill demand. Entering early 2026, affected by a decline in Ukrainian concentrate supply, port inventory retreated from highs to around 1.1 million mt, and tightening supply supported a notable rebound in Ukrainian concentrate prices, with the price spread versus PB fines also widening from 80 yuan/mt to around 100 yuan/mt . Data source: SMM Variety Cost-Effectiveness Assessment Model and Selection Strategy ◼ 1. Horizontal Comparison: Micro-Indicator Assessment among Same-Grade Varieties. In recent years, global mainstream iron ore supply entered a resource transition period, with notable structural adjustment characteristics. On one hand, some aging mines faced resource depletion , with declining mining grades; on the other hand, new mines were still in the capacity ramp-up stage , and the transition between old and new resources still required time. As a result, quality indicators of multiple mainstream varieties were broadly downgraded. Among them, medium-grade ore indicators represented by PB fines and Newman fines weakened; due to declining raw ore quality in Brazil's northern system, not only did IOCJ fines production contract, but the proportion of high-silicon special IOCJ fines output also rose, with silicon content increase being particularly notable beyond the decline in iron grade. Against this backdrop, steel mills tended to assess the most cost-effective varieties by calculating comprehensive price spreads. From the perspective of minor indicator adjustment values, the smaller the adjusted price spread relative to the MMI 61% index, the better the variety met steel mill demand. Based on Q1 averages, Jimblebar fines offered the best cost-effectiveness, followed by PB fines, Mac fines, Newman fines, and BRBR. However, since Jimblebar fines could not be traded or delivered, PB fines remained the optimal choice among medium-grade ores. Data source: SMM ◼ 2. Vertical Comparison: Historical Percentile Timing of High, Medium, and Low-Grade Price Spreads Beyond the horizontal comparison of price spreads among varieties of similar grades, vertically examining price spread changes among high, medium, and low-grade ores was equally important. By analyzing historical percentiles of the price difference between high and medium-grade ore and the price difference between medium and low-grade ore, the relative valuation of each grade could be assessed to guide variety switching and timing. Price difference between high and medium-grade ore: when at historical highs, the high-grade premium was excessive, and switching to medium-grade was advisable under profit pressure; when at historical lows, high-grade cost-effectiveness stood out, and moderate allocation increases were appropriate. Beyond premiums, using IOCJ fines and PB fines as benchmarks and calculating based on their indicator costs, the neutral value of the price spread between the two was 100 yuan/mt. When the spread exceeded 100 yuan/mt, PB fines offered better cost-effectiveness; when below 100 yuan/mt, IOCJ fines were more cost-effective. Price difference between medium and low-grade ore: when at historical highs, low-grade advantages were evident, suitable for cost reduction during thin-margin periods; when at historical lows, medium-grade cost-effectiveness improved, allowing flexible adjustments. Using PB fines and SSF as benchmarks and calculating based on their indicator costs, the price spread between the two ranged from 100-120 yuan/mt, with a midpoint of 110 as the neutral value. When the spread exceeded 110 yuan/mt, super special fines offered better cost-effectiveness; when below 110 yuan/mt, PB fines were more cost-effective. Combining the historical percentiles of both, allocation windows for each grade could be captured based on profit cycles to achieve cost optimization. Data source: SMM ◼ 3 Morphology Comparison: Arbitrage Logic of Fines-Lump Price Spread and Lump Ore Premium. Taking the price spread between PB lump and PB fines as an example, influenced by steel mill profits and coke prices, the fines-lump price spread exhibited notable fluctuations. Historical data showed the price spread between PB lump and PB fines ranged approximately 80–500 yuan/mt. In H1 2021, driven by high steel mill profits and supply-demand mismatch, the fines-lump price spread once approached the historical high of nearly 500 yuan/mt. In recent years, as steel mill profits narrowed, the price spread contracted significantly. In 2025, the fines-lump price spread operated within a range of 70–220 yuan/mt, with an annual average of approximately 128 yuan/mt. In early 2026, the lump ore premium fell to $0.04/dmt, and the price spread narrowed to 65 yuan/mt. Given that China's overcapacity landscape has not fundamentally changed, steel mill profits are expected to remain basically flat with 2025, and the fines-lump price spread is likely to maintain the current range. Based on this assessment: When the lump-fines price spread exceeds 120 yuan/mt, PB fines offer better value; When the lump-fines price spread falls below 120 yuan/mt, PB lump offers better value. Steel mills can choose accordingly based on their own conditions. Data source: SMM ◼ 4 Substitution Comparison: Cost-Effectiveness Competition between Lump Ore and Pellet Generally, when steel mill profits are favourable, steel mills consider increasing the usage ratio of lump ore and pellet. Typically, the combined usage share of lump ore and pellet ranges between 20%–30%. In actual ore blending decisions, steel mills' price spread analysis between lump ore and pellet falls into two categories: inland steel mills usually compare the price spread between domestic pellet and lump ore such as PB lump and Newman lump; while coastal port steel mills focus more on the price spread between imported pellet and corresponding lump ore. In recent years, with the increase in China's pellet capacity and the decline in imported pellet volumes, the weighting of price spread comparison between same-grade lump ore and domestic pellet has further increased. Historical data showed the price spread between 62% grade pellet in Qingdao and PB lump ore at Qingdao port ranged approximately 40–260 yuan/mt, with an annual average price spread of approximately 108 yuan/mt in 2025. Considering steel mills' actual cost accounting, the price spread equilibrium point between pellet and lump ore is generally set at 120 yuan/mt. When the pellet-lump price spread exceeds 120 yuan/mt, lump ore offers better value; When the pellet-lump price spread falls below 120 yuan/mt, pellet offers better value. Steel mills can choose accordingly based on their own raw material conditions, logistics structure, and production requirements. Data source: SMM Carbon Neutrality as a Two-Way Driver: Steel Industry Restructuring Shifts Iron Ore Demand ◼ The rapid advancement of industrialisation has significantly intensified the impact on the global climate, making the urgency of achieving carbon neutrality increasingly pressing. Particularly over the past five years, major economies represented by China and the EU have not only defined their respective emission reduction targets but also successively introduced legally binding regulations, marking a shift in global climate governance from consensus to action. Going forward, China's Ecological Environment Code and the EU's European Climate Law and "Fit for 55" package will become the two major institutional benchmarks for global climate governance. China's carbon market and the EU's CBAM, from the two dimensions of domestic carbon pricing and cross-border carbon adjustment respectively, form core policy tools for effectively controlling carbon emissions. Source: SMM ◼ Driven by both domestic and international legislation, the steel industry will undergo an evolution in emission reduction pathways: process transformation from long-process to short-process steelmaking; low-carbon transition driving non-blast furnace ironmaking development and carbon constraints driving furnace charge structure upgrades. These pathways will collectively reshape the demand structure of iron ore, manifested as strengthened preference for high-grade, low-impurity iron ore concentrates and premium mainstream ore types, while demand for traditional sintering fines tends to narrow. ◼ 1. Process restructuring: the shift from long-process to short-process steelmaking will drive increased demand for mainstream varieties and high-grade ore Under the global backdrop of "carbon neutrality" goals, the steel industry is regarded as one of the key areas for industrial emission reduction. The traditional long process (blast furnace-converter process), due to its reliance on coke and iron ore, is considered a major source of high carbon emissions and has become a key target for regulation and transformation. Many countries have begun shifting toward the more environmentally friendly short process (steel scrap-electric furnace process), but this transition has been relatively slow in China. On one hand, electric furnace steelmaking is largely limited to rebar production; on the other hand, steel scrap supply is constrained. Additionally, considering factors such as melting costs and losses in steel scrap smelting, pig iron costs should be higher than steel scrap prices by 100-150 yuan/mt for steel scrap to be more cost-effective; if the price spread is below this level, pig iron offers better value. In 2025, the price spread between hot metal costs and steel scrap fluctuated in a range of -100-210. Pig iron costs were mostly more favorable than steel scrap, so the share of blast furnace steelmaking in China stayed high. Source: SMM In China, apart from profitability, short-process electric furnaces are also constrained by high electricity prices, steel scrap price fluctuations, and cost disadvantages , resulting in slow capacity growth. Although the national carbon market is already operational, current carbon prices have not been effectively incorporated into trading, which is not enough to drive a large-scale shift from long-process to electric furnaces, and enterprises mostly adopt gradual adjustments . Source: SMM Based on current policy and market conditions, before China's steel industry is formally included in the national carbon market trading and during the early stage of the EU's CBAM policy implementation, the blast furnace-converter long process will remain the dominant mode of global steel production over the next five years. However, under the dual pressures of domestic steel capacity capping and rising carbon prices in the future, China's electric furnace short process is entering a historic development opportunity, with its share of steelmaking set to gradually increase. By 2030, the share of electric furnace steelmaking is expected to reach around 35%. In the long term, this trend will gradually suppress iron ore demand, causing it to weaken. Against the backdrop of oversupply, competition among iron ore varieties will intensify, and therefore high cost-effective varieties with low silicon and aluminum content will become the optimal choice for steel mills. Undoubtedly, mainstream medium and high-grade ore such as PB fines, Mac fines, Newman fines, IOCJ fines, BRBF, and Simandou fines all belong to relatively high-quality varieties. ◼ 2 Low-carbon transition driving non-blast furnace ironmaking development, demand for high-grade iron ore concentrates with Fe content above 65% expected to continue rising Currently, global DRI production accounts for only 10% of total global production. As low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen-based DRI accelerate in application, DRI production share is expected to rise to 13% by 2030. In comparison, China's non-blast furnace ironmaking share is even smaller, with mass production not yet achieved and only leading steel enterprises in the trial production stage. Under current carbon neutrality requirements, China's non-blast furnace ironmaking is facing significant development opportunities. According to incomplete statistics, announced non-blast furnace ironmaking capacity totaled approximately 18 million mt, of which only 2 million mt were under construction, with the remaining 16 million mt of projects still in early stages, carrying relatively high risk coefficients. Whether these projects materialize depends on multiple factors including funding, market conditions, decarbonization policies, and government support, resulting in significant uncertainty regarding future commissioning time. Future projects will primarily be gas-based; current major DRI equipment uses coke oven gas (COG), but in the medium and long-term will gradually shift to green hydrogen. Data source: World Steel Association Data source: SMM Currently, the core requirements for DRI raw materials are "high grade, low impurities," with Fe grade ≥66% and SiO2+Al2O3 ≤3.5%. China's concentrates generally have relatively high silicon content, with some exceeding 10%. Therefore, only a few low-silicon concentrates can be used to produce direct reduced pellet feed. Ex-China high-grade concentrates offer a wider range of options. Data source: SMM As DRI production grows, demand for high-quality iron units is also increasing, leading to a structural rise in the share of high-grade iron ore and pure iron raw materials. As shown in the chart, varieties within the red box all have Fe content above 66%, with Si+Al content around 3.5%; these include some high-grade iron ore concentrates from China, Brazilian pellet feed concentrates, Peruvian concentrates, and emerging Simandou fines, all of which can serve as DRI raw materials. Data source: SMM ◼ 3. Carbon constraints drive furnace charge structure upgrades, with pellet replacing sinter becoming key to carbon reduction, and pellet-making concentrates with grades above 62% set to see significant growth. As China's steel industry pursues structural adjustment, optimization, and green, low-carbon, high-quality development, pellet ore as a premium raw material for blast furnaces has been increasingly favoured by the industry, driving the rapid development of the pellet sector. The energy consumption of the pellet production process is approximately 50% of that of the sinter production process. According to CISA's 2025 statistics, the average energy consumption of the sintering process among its member units was 48.5 kg/mt, while the average energy consumption of the pellet process was 25.23 kg/mt, indicating lower energy consumption in pellet production. Due to the different heat supply methods in pellet roasting compared to sintering, SO2, NOX, and CO2 emissions after combustion are much lower than those from the sintering process. In addition, pellet ore generates much less dust than sinter, making the pellet process more environmentally friendly. The emission comparison between the sintering process and the pellet process is shown in the chart below: Data source: SMM ◼ A high proportion of pellet ore in furnace charge is the direction and demand of current blast furnace charge structure development Compared with other countries in the world, China's blast furnace charge structure is dominated by sinter with a low pellet ratio , while blast furnaces in North America and Europe primarily use high proportions of pellets, with some blast furnaces reaching 100%. For example: SSAB's blast furnace in Sweden had a pellet ratio of 97.2%, Dofasco in Canada achieved 100% all-pellet smelting, and USS No. 14 blast furnace had a pellet ratio of 80%, etc. According to CISA's 2025 statistics, the average fuel ratio per unit of ironmaking at China's key steel enterprises was 523-525 kg/mt, approximately 70 kg higher than the average fuel ratio of European and American blast furnaces. The reason is that China's blast furnace charge is dominated by sinter, with sinter iron grade at around 54-57%, while pellet ore iron grade is above 62%. High sinter usage leads to high slag volume and high energy consumption in blast furnaces. Therefore, against the backdrop of carbon reduction, increasing the proportion of pellet ore usage is imperative. Data source: SMM ◼ Currently, there are three main types of pellet production equipment in China: shaft furnaces, chain grate-rotary kilns, and travelling grates . In recent years, pellet equipment with a single-unit capacity below 1.2 million mt/year (excluding ferroalloy and foundry pig iron pellets) has been classified as a restricted category; therefore, capacity replacement of pellet equipment continues, with new pellet projects predominantly using travelling grates, with single production line capacity mostly at 5 million mt. As a result, current pellet production is mainly based on rotary kilns and travelling grates. These two types of equipment have less stringent raw material requirements compared to shaft furnaces, allowing the blending of multiple ore types such as magnetite, hematite, and limonite. However, it must be concentrate, with a particle size requirement generally of -200 mesh, 70% or above. Commonly used varieties include: domestic concentrate, Ukrainian concentrate, Brazilian concentrate, Middle Eastern concentrate, Chilean concentrate, Australian concentrate, Sierra Leonean concentrate, etc. As the proportion of pellet usage increases in the future, demand for concentrate with grades of 62% and above will continue to expand. ◼ Overall, before 2030, as carbon neutrality policies and Europe's CBAM are still in the early stages of implementation, carbon emission costs have not yet become significantly prominent. Meanwhile, China's steel production is trending downward, while iron ore supply is accelerating, steel mill profits are under pressure, and cost reduction and efficiency improvement remain the industry's mainstream strategy. Therefore, procurement will continue to focus on low- and medium-grade iron ore, demand for non-mainstream ore varieties will remain robust, the price spread among high-, medium-, and low-grade ore will be difficult to widen, and premiums for lump ore and pellets will also stay at current low levels. ◼ After 2030, market requirements for green steel will gradually increase, the share of electric furnace steelmaking and non-blast furnace steelmaking will rise, and overall iron ore demand will decline notably. Although blast furnace capacity will decrease, operating rates may improve, driving down sinter demand while pellet demand increases significantly. This shift will lead to a sharp decline in fines demand and an expansion of market share for mainstream medium-grade ore; meanwhile, demand for high-quality concentrate will rise, pushing the price difference between high and medium-grade ore wider, and pellet premiums will also continue to climb. Additionally, although lump ore demand has some growth potential, the increase will be limited under carbon emission constraints, and lump ore premium elasticity will diminish accordingly.

SMM April 21: As the anti-involution policy continued to advance, the second round of coke price hikes was officially implemented. This, combined with persistently tight spot supply and demand, capacity constraints caused by Daqin Railway maintenance, the highlighted coal substitution advantage driven by high oil prices, and incremental demand from continued increases in hot metal production, created multiple positive factors that drove the coal mining sector to a two-day winning streak. Specifically, on the supply side, the Daqin Railway spring concentrated maintenance restricted north-to-south coal transportation capacity, inventories continued to decline, and the implementation of coke price hikes further transmitted cost support, pushing coal prices steadily upward. On the demand side, a stronger-than-usual off-season pattern emerged, with hot metal production continuing to edge up, coupled with significant YoY and MoM increases in daily consumption at coastal power plants. Restocking demand from the construction materials and other industries was released ahead of the Labour Day holiday, and with power plant inventories at low levels, seasonal restocking demand was activated early. In addition, tensions in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, highlighting the economic advantage of coal-fired power, while the defensive attributes of the coal sector attracted some capital inflows, jointly driving the sector higher. As of the close on April 21, the sector gained 2.27%, with individual stocks performing actively. Gansu Energy Chemical, Huayang New Material Technology, Yankuang Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry, and Lu'an Clean Energy led the gains. Futures market: As of the daytime close on April 21, ferrous metals mostly rose, with coking coal up 1.53% and coke up 2.42%. Spot market Hot metal production is expected to continue edging up this week On April 15, the blast furnace operating rate of the 242 steel mills tracked by SMM rose WoW. The sample steel mills' daily average hot metal production increased WoW. Last week, according to the latest SMM survey, no new blast furnace maintenance was reported, and a total of 2 blast furnaces resumed production, mainly concentrated in Shanxi. Currently, blast furnace profits were under pressure, and most steel mills produced normally as planned. The pace of maintenance and production resumptions remained generally stable, with hot metal production staying relatively steady. Looking ahead to this week, hot metal production is expected to continue edging up. Spot market: On April 21, the Linfen low-sulphur coking coal price was quoted at 1,530 yuan/mt. The Tangshan low-sulphur coking coal price was quoted at 1,550 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) was 1,845 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) was 1,705 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of first-grade metallurgical coke (wet quenching) was 1,490 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (wet quenching) was 1,400 yuan/mt. Coking coal market: Production at some mines that had previously cut production recovered somewhat, but major mines were still affected by safety inspections, and the incremental supply of coking coal remained limited. Moreover, futures rallied, market sentiment warmed notably, stimulating some coal grades to stabilize and rebound. In the short term, coking coal prices may hold up well. Coke market: In terms of supply, coke enterprises' per-mt profitability has recovered, production enthusiasm was moderate, shipments were relatively smooth, and in-plant coke inventory remained at low levels. Demand side, steel mills maintained strong production enthusiasm, hot metal production edged up, providing solid just-in-time procurement support for coke. Additionally, with the Labour Day holiday approaching, some steel mills released pre-holiday restocking demand. Overall, the coke supply-demand structure remained tight, and the coke market may hold up well in the short term. Institutional Views A Datong Securities research report showed: on coking coal, driven by downstream restocking and coke price hike expectations, port coking coal prices rose, while mine-mouth coal prices showed some divergence. At ports, Shanxi-origin coking coal warehouse-pickup prices at Jingtang Port rose WoW, while mine-mouth prices generally showed a stable-to-declining trend. Internationally, Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal CFR China prices were flat WoW. In the short term, with continued growth in hot metal production, sentiment boost from coke price hikes being implemented, and downstream restocking demand release, the coking coal market may see slight upward momentum. A Shanxi Securities research report noted: currently, Daqin Line maintenance-related destocking and high landed costs of imported coal supported coal prices. Power plant daily consumption was at seasonal lows, while chemicals, steel mills, and other industries drove coal demand. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of just-in-time procurement from non-power industries and the summer electricity consumption peak after May. Investment recommendation: high uncertainty from US-Iran conflicts corresponds to high volatility, but oil prices are unlikely to decline significantly in the short term. Recovery signals have been confirmed, coal PPI is about to turn positive, coal prices are expected to rise, and coal stocks are poised for a Davis Double Play. A Guohai Securities research report suggested that, from a broader perspective, the supply-side constraint logic for the coal mining industry remains unchanged, while demand may experience periodic fluctuations, with prices also showing certain oscillations and dynamic rebalancing. From the long-term industry development trend, the aforementioned driving factors still exist, and coal prices still have upward momentum over the long term. The process may be tortuous, but the direction should be clear. Leading coal enterprises have high asset quality, abundant cash flows on their books, exhibiting "five highs" — high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers, high dividends, and high margin of safety. Since 2025, multiple central and state-owned coal enterprises have initiated share buyback and asset injection plans for their publicly listed firms, also releasing positive signals, demonstrating confidence in coal enterprise development, and enhancing corporate growth potential and stability. A Guangda Futures research report analyzed: Coking coal: supply side, most mines at production areas operated largely normally. There were reports that Mongolian coal throughput decreased due to factors such as fuel shortages. Recently, downstream buyers moderately restocked raw material coal, and overall inventory continued destocking. Demand side, steel mills maintained high hot metal production, with a preference for coke procurement. The second round of coke price increases was implemented, and coking enterprises restocked some coal grades with higher cost-effectiveness. Coking coal futures are expected to hold up well in the short term. Coke: Supply side, coking enterprises in some regions were constrained in operations due to government ultra-low emission retrofit requirements. Coking enterprises saw good shipments, and coke inventory mostly remained at low levels. Demand side, steel mills had a relatively strong willingness to produce, and mainstream steel mills accepted the second round of coke price increases. Transportation restrictions emerged in some regions, and steel mills experienced continuous destocking, with high procurement enthusiasm. Coke futures are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. Southwest Futures stated: In the short term, changes in the Middle East situation may still have sentiment impact on futures prices, but the impact on the actual supply-demand pattern of coking coal and coke is relatively small. Coking coal side, production at some mines in major producing areas was affected, but the impact on production was limited. Demand side, the online auction atmosphere improved recently, and quotes for some coal grades were raised. Coke side, some coking enterprises currently cut production, but the change in supply was relatively small; demand side, national daily hot metal production may continue to rebound, and demand expansion provides support for coke prices; the second round of spot coke price increases is being implemented. From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may continue to move sideways in the medium term. Strategy-wise, investors may watch for buying opportunities at low levels and pay attention to position management. Recommended reading:

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, coking enterprises in Shanxi, Hebei, and other regions saw tightened production due to the concentrated push by local governments for ultra-low emission retrofits. However, production in other regions rose instead of declining, keeping overall coke supply stable with a slight increase. Demand side, steel mill hot metal production continued to increase, driving strong rigid demand for coke. Steel mills with low inventory had a strong willingness to restock, while other steel mills purchased as needed with stable rigid demand. Overall, coke supply and demand remained in a tight balance. The second round of coke price increases is expected to materialize, and the coke market may hold up well next week.

Recently, in the environmental assessment campaign of Chongqing Iron & Steel (Group) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Chongqing Iron & Steel Group"), Chongqing Iron & Steel Group Transportation Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Chongqing Iron & Steel Transportation Company"), a subsidiary of Chongqing Iron & Steel Group, collaborated with Yuhong Chuangneng to deploy 50 hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks equipped with Guohong Hydrogen Energy's fuel cell systems, establishing a clean transportation network covering industrial materials such as steel slag and steel products. The transportation scope of this batch of hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks covers over 10 key areas in Chongqing, including Changshou, Bishan, and Fuling, with a daily average transportation volume of 6,500 mt and a daily carbon reduction of 5.3 mt, effectively addressing the core challenge of "carbon footprint management in transportation links" in the environmental assessment of the steel industry. The 50 hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks performed exceptionally well in the rigorous field surveys and sample collection operations for environmental assessment conducted by Chongqing Iron & Steel Transportation Company. With their zero-carbon emissions throughout the entire process, they perfectly met the green requirements of environmental assessment, ensuring both transportation timeliness and avoiding secondary pollution during the assessment process. Currently, steel enterprises in China are accelerating the replacement of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles with hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks, adding new impetus to strive for ultra-low emission Class A environmental protection enterprises and achieve green and low-carbon development. This collaboration between Guohong Hydrogen Energy and Yuhong Chuangneng, through the large-scale application of hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks, has validated the maturity of hydrogen energy technology in heavy industry emission reduction scenarios. The established closed-loop system of "environmental protection assessment - technology validation - standard output" provides replicable experience for the green upgrading of the industry. In the future, Guohong Hydrogen Energy will continue to deepen the application innovation of hydrogen energy in the heavy industry sector, collaborate with more partners to jointly draw up a new blueprint for green development, and contribute hydrogen energy power to achieving the "dual carbon" goals!

[Heavy to torrential rain in some areas; a new round of strong precipitation to hit south China starting from May 27] The cold air process that has been affecting most parts of China since May 21 is currently coming to an end. Today, rainfall will continue in Yunnan, Guangxi, Sichuan, and other regions. The Central Meteorological Observatory forecasts that starting from May 27, a new round of strong precipitation weather process will occur in south China. There is a high risk of meteorological disasters such as mountain torrents and geological disasters in regions like Guangdong and Yunnan.

[Start Production of the Heating Furnace for the Shagang HRC Plate Heating Furnace Retrofitting Project] The project involves the overall retrofitting of the combustion systems of two heating furnaces, redistributing the original thermal load of the heating furnaces to meet high-load production demands, upgrading the control system, and adopting MILD flameless combustion ultra-low emission technology and equipment to significantly reduce pollutant emissions from the heating furnaces. The construction of the two heating furnaces in this project was carried out simultaneously, and the first period for start production of the heating furnaces was achieved within 20 days. WISDRI Southern (Hubei) Engineering Technology Co., Ltd. has a project cluster in implementation stage at Shagang. The project team will continue to uphold the service philosophy of "rational commitment, delivering on promises," strictly adhere to the "spirit of contract," and complete the thermal load work for the 2# heating furnace with high quality and efficiency. The team will also make unremitting efforts to achieve the heating furnace start production periods for other units in the project cluster, striving to build high-quality projects for customers.

★Macro★ 01 ★★★ China and the 10 ASEAN Countries Fully Concluded the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 Negotiations The Special Meeting of the China-ASEAN Economic and Trade Ministers was held online on May 20, where the economic and trade ministers of both sides jointly announced the full conclusion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations. The 3.0 negotiations were launched in November 2022, and after nearly two years and nine rounds of formal negotiations, they were substantially concluded in October 2024. With the full coordination and joint efforts of the economic and trade ministers of various countries, both sides fully completed the negotiations, taking a crucial step towards the goal of signing the upgrade protocol. ★Industry and Downstream★ 01 National Bureau of Statistics: China's Excavator Production Exceeded 100,000 Units from January to April The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in April 2025, China's excavator production reached 26,022 units, up 13% YoY. From January to April 2025, China's excavator production totaled 106,394 units, up 14.3% YoY. 02 Simandou Railway Successfully Completed Full-Span Beam Erection Maribaya, Guinea, May 19, 2025—With the final 32.6-meter-long, 134.3-mt T-beam securely placed on the Kabélé River Bridge, the full-span beam erection task for the 205 bridges and a total of 9,116 T-beams of the Simandou Railway across Guinea was successfully completed! This national transportation artery, spanning over 600 kilometers from east to west in Guinea, has now fully established its "skeleton framework," marking the official entry of the Simandou project into a new phase of sprinting towards operation. 03 [SMM Building Materials Inventory Overview] Hangzhou and Guiyang Inventories Rose WoW As of May 21, this week's total building materials inventory in Xi'an was 423,000 mt, down 31,000 mt WoW, a WoW decline of 6.83%. This week's inventory in Hangzhou was 751,000 mt, with a WoW inventory buildup of 11,000 mt, up 1.49% WoW. As of May 21, this week's total building materials inventory in Guiyang was 53,400 mt, up 2,100 mt WoW, a WoW increase of 4.1%; among which rebar inventory was 31,300 mt, up 8,000 mt WoW; wire rod inventory was 22,100 mt, up 1,300 mt WoW. As of May 20, 2025, building materials inventory in Beijing was 433,600 mt, down 68,000 mt compared to May 13, a WoW decline of 13.56%, with overall inventory accelerating its decline. 04 [SMM HRC Inventory Overview] Shanghai and Lecong HRC Inventories Showed Mixed Changes WoW This week's HRC inventory in Shanghai was 29.56 mt, up 1,700 mt WoW, an increase of 0.58%; with a YoY decline of 27.44% on the Gregorian calendar and a YoY decline of 24.13% on the lunar calendar. This Week Lecong HRC Inventory 63.03 mt, down 30,800 mt WoW, a decrease of 4.66%; down 347,600 mt YoY, a decrease of 35.55%. 05 [SMM Blast Furnace Operating Rate] More Blast Furnaces Undergoing Annual Maintenance, Pig Iron Production Continues to Decline According to the SMM survey, as of May 21, the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 88.41%, down 0.23 percentage points WoW. The capacity utilisation rate of blast furnaces was 90.08%, down 0.37 percentage points WoW. The daily average pig iron production of the sample steel mills was 2.4303 million mt, down 10,000 mt WoW. ★Other Hot Topics★ ⭕ [Shanghai Municipal Government's Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption: Accelerate the Construction of a New Model for Real Estate Development and Progressively Renovate Old Residential Areas] The General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption in Shanghai". It mentioned that it would better meet housing consumption needs. Accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development, and build "good homes" that are safe, comfortable, green, and smart. Expand the scope of comprehensive renovations for beautiful homes and progressively renovate old residential areas. Expand the supply of affordable rental housing, with a focus on young people. Support residents' rigid and improvement housing needs, and implement relevant tax policies to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Expand the scope of application of housing provident funds, explore and optimize the policies for the use of housing provident funds, and implement the implementation measures for the payment, withdrawal, and use of housing provident funds by flexible workers in the city. ⭕ [Shanghai Municipal Government's Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption: Intensify and Expand the Implementation of Trade-in Policies for Consumer Goods] The General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption in Shanghai". It mentioned that it would intensify and expand the implementation of trade-in policies for consumer goods. Promote automobile consumption and implement the national automobile scrappage and renewal subsidies and the city's automobile replacement and renewal subsidy policies. Implement the national home appliance trade-in subsidy policy, add new subsidies for the purchase of digital products such as mobile phones, tablets, and smartwatches (bands), and intensify support for the consumption of green home appliances, home furnishings, and home improvement products. ⭕ [Panzhihua Steel Wins Largest Single Order for Forged Superalloys] Recently, Panzhihua Changcheng Special Steel successfully secured an order for 345 mt of forged superalloys in four specifications from a high-end domestic aviation customer. This is the first time Panzhihua Steel has won a large order exceeding 300 mt for a single forging, marking a key step forward in the domestic manufacturing of high-end metal materials. ⭕ [HBIS's Nickel-Based Alloy Hot-Rolled Wide Sheets Promote Localisation of High-End Manufacturing Materials] Recently, HBIS Materials Research Institute delivered two types of nickel-based alloy hot-rolled wide sheets, NS334 and NS336, to customers. After rigorous inspection by customers, all indicators of the products met the relevant standard requirements, and they excelled in corrosion resistance, high-temperature strength, and application scope. This marks a breakthrough for HBIS in the production of nickel-based alloy hot-rolled wide sheets, breaking foreign monopolies. It not only enhances HBIS's competitiveness in the domestic and overseas markets but also contributes to the application of domestically produced steel in China's high-end manufacturing sector. ⭕ [Successful Launch of New No.1 Converter in JISCO Hongxing's Ultra-Low Emission Retrofit Project] Recently, significant progress has been made in the ultra-low emission retrofit project in the steelmaking area of JISCO Hongxing Hongyu New Materials Company: the newly retrofitted No.1 converter was successfully launched, marking a crucial period in the project's construction. This has accumulated valuable experience for the subsequent retrofitting of No.2 and No.3 converters and has also pressed the "accelerator" for the enterprise's green and low-carbon transformation and development. ⭕ [Successful Precision Hoisting of Ultra-Large-Span Crane Beam in JISCO Carbon Steel Sheet Mill Project] On May 16, a key milestone was reached in the process optimization and product structure adjustment project of JISCO Carbon Steel Sheet Mill—the 52.6-meter large-span crane beam was precisely hoisted into place, marking the successful completion of a critical period in the "100-Day Crucial Task" retrofit project of the tunnel furnace and laying a solid foundation for the subsequent construction of the project. ⭕ [South Korea's Steel Exports to the US Fell 10% YoY in the First Four Months] According to reports, South Korea's steel export value to the US from January to April this year was $1.384 billion, a 10.2% YoY decrease, which was significantly larger than the decrease in steel export value to markets other than the US during the same period (2.6%).

On April 16, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo - Alumina and Aluminum Raw Materials Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), SMM Metal Exchange Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., Ding Long, General Manager of the Asia Market Department at Metro Mining Limited, Australia, provided an overview of Metro Mining and shared insights into the potential impact of Indonesia's new alumina production on China's alumina market. Indonesia's Alumina Capacity and Planning As of 2025, Indonesia has 11 alumina projects under construction or planned, with a total capacity of 25.5 million mt. Key Periods: 2024-2025: Approximately 8.5 million mt of new capacity (including production resumptions). After 2025: Over 10 million mt of new capacity is planned. Regional Distribution and Progress of Indonesia's Alumina Capacity Key Region: West Kalimantan (accounting for over 60% of planned projects). Projects with Rapid Progress: •Mempawah Alumina Refinery (3 million mt, with Phase 1 of 1 million mt commissioned in September 2024). •Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesia Base: Total alumina capacity has reached 2 million mt (1 million mt each for Phase 1 and Phase 2), with actual production reaching 1.91 million mt in 2023, accounting for 34.9% of the Southeast Asian market share. The new 2 million mt alumina expansion project is progressing as planned and is expected to be commissioned in 2026. •Jinjiang Group's PT BAP: Total planned capacity of 4.5 million mt/year. Phase 1, a 1 million mt/year alumina refinery, was officially commissioned in January 2025 and is entering the ramp-up stage; Phase 2 (2 million mt/year) is planned to commence in 2026. •A senior executive from Xinfa revealed that Xinfa is preparing to collaborate with local Indonesian enterprises to build power plants and aluminum enterprises. Feasibility studies are currently underway. East Hope Group to Invest in Indonesia's Aluminum Industry Key Region: West Kalimantan (accounting for over 60% of planned projects). East Hope Group: Will launch a 6 million mt alumina and 2.4 million mt aluminum project in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. The 6 million mt alumina project, located in Pontianak, West Kalimantan, will leverage the geographical advantages of being "near the port and near the mine" by constructing its own terminal and power plant, forming a closed-loop system of "bauxite mining - alumina smelting - aluminum production." The project will adopt the world's most advanced technology to ensure "ultra-low emissions" and green production, creating 3,000-3,500 jobs. The project will be constructed in three phases, with the first phase of 2 million mt capacity planned for commissioning in 2028. This will directly reduce domestic aluminum enterprises' raw material procurement costs by approximately 15% and mitigate supply chain risks associated with the over-concentration of bauxite sources in Guinea. Risks and Challenges in Investing in Indonesia's Alumina Industry Infrastructure Backwardness: Unstable power supply and high logistics and transportation costs in remote mining areas directly affect production efficiency and operating costs. Environmental Pressures: Stringent government environmental regulations require significant investment in environmental protection facility upgrades, such as waste (e.g., red mud) treatment to meet standards. Policy and Approval Risks: Projects require approval from both Indonesian and domestic governments, and policy adjustments may lead to project delays or terminations. Political and Economic Instability: Includes local separatism, exchange rate fluctuations, inflation risks, and policy uncertainties. Labor Skill Limitations: Alumina production requires skilled workers, but local labor skills are insufficient, and restrictions on foreign labor increase employment costs. Supply Chain Challenges: Poor management of bauxite mining may lead to supply disruptions, and inefficient logistics affect raw material transportation. Natural Disaster Risks: Indonesia is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, and natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis may threaten project safety. Australia Has a Fully Integrated Aluminum Industry But has surplus bauxite available for export to China. History of Bauxite Mining on the Weipa Plateau COMALCO commenced production in Weipa in 1963; signed its first long-term bauxite contract with China from Weipa in 2008; in 2018, Metro established the Hill Alumina Mine 100 km north of Weipa; Weipa Plateau bauxite grade: 50%+ alumina, 8%-12% silica; Metro has 130 million mt of resources; high-alumina bauxite, direct shipping ore; 2025 target to expand to 7 million mt annual production; Metro is Australia's only pure bauxite producer, not producing alumina to compete with its customers in the market. Northern Australian Bauxite Offers Significant Maritime Advantages Shipping time to China: 45 days from Guinea compared to 10 days from northern Australia. Australia's Bauxite Resources Additionally, it provided an overview of the 2024 alumina market disruptions. China's Alumina Trade China's alumina imports are expected to decline. China plays a crucial role in balancing the ROW alumina market. During periods of severe shortages, as seen in 2018, China became a net exporter. After Australia implemented an alumina export ban in 2022, China also increased its alumina exports to Russia. 4-6 mt of bauxite can produce 1 mt of aluminum Global aluminum demand is expected to grow by approximately 40% by 2030 Aluminum is a key metal for long-term renewable energy generation/storage, electric vehicles, and electrification. "By 2030, aluminum use in power generation will more than double that of copper" – IEA The aluminum required for the world's transition to green energy will exceed current power sector consumption by 50%. Solar PV power generation is expected to double in the next four years. By weight, aluminum accounts for 85% of the materials used in solar panels. By 2050, wind turbines will require 35 million mt of aluminum annually (4% of materials used). The EV industry will increase global aluminum consumption by 60% to 31.7 million mt by 2030. By 2030, China's aluminum consumption is expected to grow by 12.3 million mt to 56.1 million mt (47% of global demand). Asia (excluding China) aluminum consumption is expected to grow by 8.6 million mt by 2030, with approximately 61% coming from India (35%), the Middle East (19%), and Japan (7%). Aluminum: Already Essential in Modern Society, "Critical" for Energy Transition Technologies •Diverse demand for aluminum in the clean energy transition; •40% growth in aluminum demand from 2020 to 2030; •3-4% annual growth, higher than potential GDP growth. The EV industry will increase global aluminum consumption in transportation by 60% to 31.7 million mt by 2030 Aluminum is characterized by its lightweight, corrosion resistance, durability, high strength, low cost, and high electrical conductivity •It is expected that by 2030, the use of aluminum in European vehicles (both gasoline and electric) will increase from the current 197 kg to 256 kg. •EVs have a higher aluminum content compared to internal combustion engine vehicles, approximately 30% higher For example, Tesla's all-aluminum chassis is a notable example. •By 2030, the global EV fleet is expected to reach 40 million units, a transformation that will revolutionize the automotive industry and significantly boost aluminum demand. •In EV batteries, aluminum is the second most important metal element, accounting for approximately 20% of the battery by weight. Aluminum is extensively used in battery components such as the casing, cathode, and current collector. •EV charging infrastructure will also heavily rely on aluminum for transmission cables, casings, heat sinks, and screw holes. Introduction to Metro Mining Limited Since its commissioning in 2018, Metro Mining Limited has become Australia's second major, independent, and reliable bauxite producer, headquartered in Brisbane, Queensland, with mining operations on the Weipa Plateau. Under the leadership of the management team of newly appointed CEO Mr. Simon Wensley in July 2021, this Australian publicly listed firm has established a reputation for timely bauxite supply in the international financial markets, particularly in the Chinese bauxite market. Metro: Summary and Updates Despite significant impacts from typhoons, 2023 production and shipments reached a record 4.6 million wet metric tons (WMT). Total shipments in 2024 reached 5.7 million WMT, an annual record, representing a 24% increase from 2023. Ikamba demonstrated operational resilience under adverse weather conditions in the second half of December. The 2025 shipment target is 6.5 million to 7 million WMT. Production has commenced. The first shipment of bauxite in 2025 began loading on March 20. Additionally, it provided an overview of Metro's production process, the commissioning of apron feeders and vibrating screens, the commencement of operations at the Ikamba – offshore floating terminal, and the experienced leadership team and board of directors. 》Click to view the special report on the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo

The General Office of the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the 29th, stating that the Ministry of Finance plans to conduct the first renewal issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (Phase II) for 2025. The renewed treasury bonds are 30-year fixed-rate coupon bonds, with a total face value of 71 billion yuan in competitive tendering, and no additional bidding will be conducted for Category A members. The coupon rate of the renewed treasury bonds remains the same as that of the previously issued treasury bonds of the same maturity, at 1.88%.

[SMM Analysis: How Will the Maintenance of Stainless Steel Mills in Q2 2025 Affect the Market?] SMM reported on April 29 that some stainless steel mills will undergo maintenance in Q2 2025, mostly during the period of weak market demand from May to June. The main reasons are annual maintenance and ultra-low emission upgrades, which will have limited impact on market supply and prices.