The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

In March, square billet prices in Turkey on an Ex-Works basis increased by an average of $33 to reach $538 per metric ton. The upward trend was primarily supported by strong domestic demand for scrap, surging freight rates, and rising local rebar prices, which reached $590–$610 per metric ton. During the month, the Kardemir plant sold a volume of 70,000 metric tons of billets, raising its prices by $15/t following previous consecutive cuts. Mid-month tender prices settled at $505/t for S235JR grade and $510/t for B420 grade (excluding 20% VAT).

Intermediate Product Production Cuts Materialized, MHP and High-Grade Nickel Matte Payable Indicator Stayed High This Week

To date, the continuous decline of chrome ore prices has halted. Driven by a higher-than-expected increase in steel bidding prices, chrome ore prices have rebounded moderately.

[Conflict Impact] The outbreak of the Middle East conflict on February 28, 2026, significantly disrupted global aluminum market dynamics, driving increased volatility in aluminum prices. Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged alongside escalating tensions, rising from an Official Price of $3,156.5/mt on February 27 to a peak of $3,519.5/mt in early March. Prices later retreated to the $3,200–3,300/mt range in late March, as market sentiment gradually stabilized. On March 28, in response to attacks on Iranian industrial zones, Iran reportedly targeted major regional aluminum producers including Aluminum Bahrain and Emirates Global Aluminum, while Qatar Aluminum declared force majeure. These developments constrained primary aluminum output in the Middle East, tightening market liquidity and increasing supply uncertainty. As a result of supply disruptions, global aluminum availability declined, particularly impacting regions outside China in Asia. Entering April, LME aluminum prices rebounded to $3,400–3,500/mt, breaking above $3,600/mt in mid-April and fluctuating within the $3,500–3,600/mt range. [Shipping Disruptions] The conflict initially disrupted transportation systems across the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz being most severely affected. Key aluminum exporters—including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, and Kuwait—faced significant logistical constraints. Exports that traditionally passed through the Strait were heavily restricted, forcing market participants to adopt alternative logistics routes, including land transport to Red Sea ports. These adjustments significantly increased freight costs and extended delivery lead times. In April, the escalation of conflict into the Red Sea region further limited alternative shipping routes. Most Europe–Asia vessels opted to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, driving both freight costs and transit times higher. According to SMM market research, cargo delivery delays reached 3–5 weeks, while container freight costs surged by as much as 60–70%. [Primary Aluminum and Processing] Reduced Middle Eastern exports tightened primary aluminum supply across major Asian consuming countries, particularly Japan, Thailand, India, and South Korea. In 2024, the Middle East exported 6.408 million mt of primary aluminum and key aluminum products, with these four countries accounting for approximately 20.8% (1.331 million mt). In 2025, exports declined to 6.071 million mt, with imports from these countries totaling approximately 1.215 million mt (~20%). Demand for primary aluminum alloys and billets (notably 6xxx series) remained strong. SMM data shows that following the outbreak of conflict, processing fees for 6063 billets in Southeast Asia rose from $200–250/mt to $250–300/mt, peaking at $300–310/mt. Market feedback indicates a recovery in demand for 6xxx billets, with both domestic and export transactions in Malaysia and Thailand increasing significantly in April. Downstream purchasing sentiment improved, offsetting weaker market conditions observed in January–February. Demand for primary foundry alloys also strengthened. Elevated aluminum prices, reduced Middle Eastern supply, and growth in downstream sectors such as automotive (particularly in Thailand) drove increased enquiries for alloys including A356, AlSi10MnMg, and AlSi10FeMg. Notably, interest in low-carbon aluminum has also increased, reflecting rising alignment with international decarbonization policies such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Against a backdrop of tightening primary supply, importing semi-finished aluminum products from alternative regions may become an increasingly viable option. [Secondary Aluminum] Beyond primary production, the Middle East has also been a significant supplier of aluminum scrap and secondary alloys, serving as an emerging recycling and processing hub prior to the conflict. India and South Korea are key importers of Middle Eastern scrap. In 2024, the region exported 628,000 mt of aluminum scrap, with India and South Korea accounting for 62.6% and 13.5%, respectively. In 2025, total exports rose to 766,000 mt, with imports reaching 489,000 mt (India) and 101,000 mt (South Korea). Amid the conflict, buyers from Japan and South Korea diversified sourcing toward Southeast Asia, particularly Malaysia and Thailand, boosting demand for ADC12 secondary aluminum alloy. This shift supported both Southeast Asian FOB prices and Japan CIF prices. In April, continued conflict escalation drove additional demand from India, with SMM data indicating several thousand tonnes of incremental enquiries and transactions in Southeast Asia. SMM began tracking ADC12 FOB prices in Thailand and Malaysia in March 2026. Prices rose from $3,000/mt on March 2 to $3,365/mt by April 27, marking an increase of $365/mt. Market activity remained robust, with strong exports to Japan, South Korea, and India, alongside steady shipments to China, Singapore, and other regions. Some producers have reportedly secured orders through late June to July. On the raw materials side, rising LME aluminum prices pushed both imported and domestic scrap prices higher. In Thailand, aluminum cable scrap reached THB 115,000–120,000/mt ($3,560–3,710/mt) in April, significantly increasing blending costs for billet producers. As scrap prices climbed, some billet producers reduced scrap usage and increased reliance on primary aluminum. Meanwhile, higher prices for Tense scrap led to reduced trading volumes, prompting ADC12 producers to substitute alternative scrap types, including higher-copper materials, to optimize cost structures. Reduced scrap supply from the Middle East also intensified competition, particularly as India increased procurement from alternative markets, tightening supply and driving prices higher in Southeast Asia. [Outlook] The Middle East conflict has fundamentally reshaped aluminum trade flows across Asia and globally, increasing pressure on Southeast Asia’s aluminum processing sector. If the conflict persists, global aluminum trade is likely to become more regionalized, with tighter raw material availability in Asia and stronger internal circulation in Western markets. China may emerge as a key balancing supplier, as widening domestic-international price spreads could open export arbitrage opportunities for semi-finished aluminum products and secondary alloys. However, Southeast Asia may face mounting pressure from raw material shortages and intensified competition, particularly from India. At the same time, tightening low-carbon policies and Western supply chain reshoring may further challenge regional competitiveness. Conversely, a de-escalation of the conflict and normalization of logistics routes could ease supply constraints, potentially placing downward pressure on aluminum product and secondary alloy prices, gradually returning the market toward pre-conflict conditions. [Notes] The “18 Middle Eastern countries” referenced in this report include: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain Levant region: Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Palestine Other key regional countries: Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Cyprus, Libya, Yemen Primary aluminium and related key aluminium products include the following HS codes: 7601 – Unwrought aluminium 7604 – Aluminium bars, rods and profiles 7605 – Aluminium wire 7606 – Aluminium plates, sheets and strip, thickness > 0.2 mm 7607 – Aluminium foil 7608 – Aluminium tubes and pipes

In March 2026, the global steel market experienced a fierce geopolitical "sudden chill." According to the latest data from WSA, global crude steel production in March fell by 4.2% year-on-year to 159.9 million tons. The US-Iran conflict that erupted on Feb 28, and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have completely disrupted the spring recovery rhythm of the global steel supply chain, with the shadow of energy crises and logistical interruptions rapidly spreading worldwide.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 2.5 Futures: During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,824 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,824 yuan/mt, hit a low of 2,781 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,788 yuan/mt, down 36 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 7,776 lots to 383,000 lots, indicating an overall cautious market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the closing price was above MA10 (2,777.80) and MA30 (2,772.63), providing some upward momentum, but below MA5 (2,792.20), limiting gains with overhead pressure still present. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DIF (7.18) crossed above DEA (0.19), with the bullish crossover at low levels weakening and the histogram narrowing to 13.96, suggesting alumina futures are expected to continue weakening in the near term. Industry Updates: 1) Overseas alumina transactions: On February 3, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $310/mt FOB Western Australia for March shipment. The previous transaction was on January 20 at $304/mt FOB Western Australia for February shipment. Ore: As of February 4, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $62.42/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $61/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $60/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $56/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $47/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $60/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was $73/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $71.5/mt, down $2/mt from last Friday. Domestic ore side, bauxite production resumptions in Shanxi were active, with currently ample supply. Combined with some domestic ore production lines planning to upgrade to imported ore lines recently, domestic ore demand weakened again, and prices were under pressure. Imported ore side, market transactions were sluggish, with offer prices continuing to decline. Some alumina refineries reported that amid falling ore prices, procurement plans remained cautious. SMM will continue to monitor domestic and overseas mines' production, port shipments, and price trends. Spot Prices: As of February 4, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,619.87 yuan/mt, down 0.27 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,549.77 yuan/mt, down 0.19 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,617.91 yuan/mt, down 0.92 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,604.23 yuan/mt, down 0.26 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,693.56 yuan/mt, down 0.23 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,674 yuan/mt, down 0.33 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on February 4, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 208.13 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On February 4, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,944 mt from the previous trading day to 196,300 mt. Shandong region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,796 mt. Henan region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 1,203 mt. Guangxi region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,505 mt. Gansu region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 17,400 mt. Xinjiang region alumina warrants increased by 6,944 mt from the previous trading day to 162,400 mt. Markets Outside China: As of February 4, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $310/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.2/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.95. This translated to a selling price at China's major ports of approximately 2,674.83 yuan/mt, which was 54.96 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index price. According to SMM model calculations, the import window was closed. Summary: Overall, as of last Thursday, China's alumina market inventory edged up slightly, with the overall oversupply pattern continuing. Currently, some alumina refineries have started maintenance, with enterprises across various regions arranging production shutdowns of different scales, leading to a decline in the industry operating rate and a weekly production decrease of 35,000 mt to 1.636 million mt. Inventory side, as more enterprises underwent maintenance, alumina in-factory inventory decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.2408 million mt. Aluminum enterprises' raw material inventory edged up slightly to 3.603 million mt, mainly due to continued shipments under long-term contract orders. Warrants, attracted by previously strong futures prices, saw increased delivery willingness, rising by 40,000 mt to 159,100 mt, while in-transit and platform inventory decreased by 30,000 mt as cargoes gradually arrived at end-users. Overall, although the pace of inventory buildup has slowed down compared to the earlier period, overall industry inventory pressure persists, and the destocking progress has fallen short of expectations. Going forward, attention should be paid to the execution of enterprise maintenance plans. If the supply side fails to sustain contraction, inventory is expected to maintain a slight buildup trend next week, and spot alumina prices are expected to be in the doldrums. [Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

Trade data for the first quarter of 2026 shows a 31% year-on-year decline in Russian coal exports to Turkey. This reduction is attributed to increased domestic Turkish production and a shift in trade defense policies that favor imports from other European and Australian suppliers. The decline in this critical corridor highlights the shifting trade routes for metallurgical coal as international markets react to geopolitical tensions and the ongoing war, which continues to keep commodity price volatility high.

Data from the online query platform of customs statistics showed that China's copper cathode imports in March 2026 totaled 279,368.28 mt, up 37.22% MoM and down 21.12% YoY. China imported 99,134 mt of copper cathode from the DRC in March, up 40.29% MoM and down 11.90% YoY. China imported 50,000.35 mt of copper cathode from Russia in March, up 161.09% MoM and down 31.48% YoY. Export side, China's copper cathode exports in March 2026 totaled 58,213.02 mt, down 25.59% MoM and down 14.40% YoY. China exported 20,773.82 mt of copper cathode to Taiwan, China in March, down 27.00% MoM and down 1.54% YoY. China exported 14,825.88 mt of copper cathode to Vietnam in March, up 324.68% MoM and up 109.54% YoY. Below is a breakdown of import data compiled from the General Administration of Customs website: Origin Mar 2026 (mt) MoM YoY DRC 99,134 40.29% -11.90% Russia 50,000.35 161.09% -31.48% Chile 22,176.40 -12.79% -50.96% Japan 16,813.32 149.84% 1.38% Kazakhstan 14,609.34 70.94% -27.94% Zambia 11,917.14 -48.13% -8.35% Australia 10,361.24 3,338.25% 179.50% Pakistan 8,398.21 14.35% 64.90% Myanmar 5,120.18 8.98% 278.21% Indonesia 5,019.44 340.72% 284.62% Peru 4,153.01 -22.79% -59.93% Uzbekistan 4,085.00 30.57% 44.14% Serbia 4,013.21 223.16% 71.66% Netherlands 3,492.23 - - South Africa 3,158.74 75.66% 93.03% UAE 2,332.17 -32.74% -82.42% Qatar 1,490.99 81.41% 2.66% Laos 1,240.29 149.66% 120.76% India 1,135.97 -17.24% 23.41% Spain 1,112.20 - 95.25% Poland 1,040.86 -65.70% -67.21% Belgium 991.46 - -63.55% South Korea 955.28 380.10% -74.44% Egypt 741.65 288.74% 486.40% Turkey 679.23 37.84% -65.17% Thailand 672.95 35.89% -22.71% Malaysia 613.67 -31.49% -74.16% Congo Republic 526.09 - 26.03% China 494.64 -93.81% -87.52% Morocco 393.22 -85.83% -34.82% Oman 344.97 0.02% 584.33% Georgia 328.85 192.31% 47.21% Mexico 306.63 -38.01% -85.20% Mongolia 266.98 -63.16% -86.27% Tajikistan 214.46 -36.44% 8.38% Taiwan, China 184.36 794.98% -51.82% Guinea 127.41 -29.09% -28.30% Sierra Leone 103.81 39.79% - Gabon 98.77 36.40% 113.83% Bolivia 84.3 1,045.38% -78.08% Canada 82.92 245.42% 63.55% Jordan 75.4 - -24.74% Mauritius 70.29 188.67% - Angola 50.48 -66.97% - Mozambique 48.2 - - Kenya 25 - - Brazil 23.48 - - Hong Kong, China 20.98 - 419,500.00% Germany 20.09 -40.76% 143.80% Finland 18.41 -38.81% - US 0.02 118.18% - Italy 0.02 - 15.00% Total 279,368.28 37.22% -21.12% Source: General Administration of Customs Below is a breakdown of export data compiled from the General Administration of Customs website: Destination Mar 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Taiwan, China 20,773.82 -27.00% -1.54% Vietnam 14,825.88 324.68% 109.54% Thailand 9,501.22 86.48% 99.85% South Korea 4,974.88 -79.95% -57.72% Malaysia 4,372.73 157.42% 631.26% Indonesia 1,403.09 -24.76% 99.96% India 1,202.46 -77.01% 9,249,569.23% Pakistan 548.46 171.61% 265.62% Bangladesh 504.81 25,140.40% - UAE 100.48 - - Tanzania 4.57 - - Hong Kong, China 0.61 - - UK 0.01 1,000.00% - Belgium 0.01 66.67% - Total 58,213.02 -25.59% -14.40% Source: General Administration of Customs (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Data from the online query platform of customs statistics showed that China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in March 2026 totaled 2,629,996.23 mt, up 13.84% MoM and up 9.99% YoY. China imported 820,975.96 mt of copper ore and concentrates from Chile in March, up 9.86% MoM and up 1.61% YoY. China imported 655,587.09 mt of copper ore and concentrates from Peru in March, up 33.96% MoM and up 17.12% YoY. Export side, China's exports of copper ore and concentrates in March 2026 totaled 441.66 mt, up 57,483.31% MoM and up 4,788.37% YoY. China exported 440.29 mt of copper ore and concentrates to Mongolia in March, up 204,684.65% MoM and up 44,028,600.00% YoY. China exported 0.63 mt of copper ore and concentrates to the UK in March, up 108.67% MoM and up 5,116.67% YoY. Below is a breakdown of import data compiled from the website of China's General Administration of Customs: Origin Mar 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Chile 820,975.96 9.86% 1.61% Peru 655,587.09 33.96% 17.12% Mongolia 216,179.71 8.99% 30.00% Russia 130,003.95 84.67% 120.85% Kazakhstan 113,192.78 1.84% -3.49% Mexico 110,475.43 -6.45% -0.58% Serbia 88,460.26 38.98% 68.17% DRC 67,621.60 66.76% 70.74% Ecuador 60,735.30 83.44% -13.98% Australia 53,948.73 25.39% 51.52% Canada 49,086.07 -25.93% 168.17% Brazil 47,986.63 -16.70% 99.48% Armenia 26,008.34 1.92% 51.56% Botswana 23,428.58 -25.88% -35.58% Oman 21,629.46 1,290.47% 587.34% Spain 21,091.23 -59.50% -79.07% Laos 20,138.62 74.01% -3.91% Saudi Arabia 14,005.64 -61.74% -74.34% Philippines 13,780.69 33.35% 916.20% Zambia 10,402.22 -2.43% 523.63% South Africa 10,120.44 8,000.50% 205.01% Eritrea 9,909.68 5.40% -68.35% Turkey 7,500.47 -16.77% -29.31% Morocco 6,694.51 317.57% 189.56% Pakistan 5,754.75 12.62% 1,086.79% UAE 4,527.43 285.35% - Iran 3,531.54 92.06% 2,207,112.50% Namibia 3,359.64 247.39% -8.90% Albania 2,334.52 0.50% 99.12% Dominican Republic 2,297.50 -19.65% -57.56% India 2,149.50 -56.08% 42,989,900.00% Mauritania 1,895.04 0% -71.28% Nicaragua 937.32 700.81% -4.92% Myanmar 893.12 182.94% -53.26% Zimbabwe 729.18 832.99% 458.03% Cambodia 556.34 94.91% - Congo Republic 491.01 117.10% -10.06% Bolivia 431.23 -82.07% 0.62% Colombia 363.69 -94.35% 169.39% Madagascar 308.2 -53.36% 83.45% Tanzania 131.99 -40.54% 73.23% Nigeria 131.36 366.97% 1,313,500.00% Malaysia 79.49 -99.75% 1,135,428.57% Thailand 75.38 - - Vietnam 54.54 -73.90% -83.73% Netherlands 0.07 195.65% 65.85% Romania 0.01 - -100.00% Total 2,629,996.23 13.84% 9.99% Data source: General Administration of Customs Below is a breakdown of export data compiled from the website of China's General Administration of Customs: Destination Mar 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Mongolia 440.29 204,684.65% 44,028,600.00% UK 0.63 108.67% 5,116.67% Netherlands 0.45 156.00% 44,700.00% Belgium 0.21 994.74% 890.48% Australia 0.04 18.75% - Oman 0.01 - - Chile 0.01 0% - India 0.01 100.00% - Total 441.66 57,483.31% 4,788.37% Data source: General Administration of Customs