【SMM Tungsten Analysis】 SMM News, August 14: The global tungsten industrial chain remained in a stalemate this week. Divergent inventory‑building strategies across upstream and downstream segments

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight LME copper opened at $14,208/mt, touched a high of $14,218/mt in early fluctuations, then drifted lower all the way to $14,142/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $14,153/mt, up 0.23%. Trading volume was 15,700 lots, and open interest stood at 261,000 lots, an increase of 2,675 lots from the previous trading day, indicating an increase in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,200 yuan/mt, with the price center moving up to touch 108,320 yuan/mt in early trading, then drifting lower to a low of 107,900 yuan/mt, before closing at 108,000 yuan/mt, up 0.04%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest was 213,000 lots, a decrease of 1,714 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a decrease in bearish positions.

Perpetua Resources announced on the 6th that it has delineated multiple gold-antimony exploration targets at the Stibnite project in Idaho, potentially expanding the permitted pit boundaries, and has identified tungsten ore clues, according to Mining.com. Tungsten is a critical mineral with the highest melting point of all metals and extremely high density, making it an indispensable material for heavy industry, aerospace engineering, advanced electronics, and weapons such as armor-piercing projectiles. The US ceased tungsten production in 2015. The US had been mining tungsten ore, but low tungsten prices made it difficult to profit from continued mining. "Our focus is on drilling areas that align with the currently planned mining sequence and have the potential to directly add value," said Jon Cherry, CEO of Perpetua Resources. "Our priority target is to confirm higher-grade gold-antimony zones within the three permitted pits, supplement our current Stibnite gold project resources, and sustain or exceed our estimated annual target of 463,000 ounces after four years of production." The company stated that recent drilling between the Yellow Pine and West End pits continues to show significant indications of new ore bodies, including multiple high-grade gold intercepts and a new gold-tungsten discovery. Significant high-grade gold mineralization, including a gold-tungsten occurrence, was encountered at the Clark Tunnel Fault Zone (CTFZ) on the southeastern margin of the planned Yellow Pine pit. Perpetua Resources noted that drilling underway at the CTFZ also intersected the tungsten-bearing mineral scheelite. Huckleberry Fault Zone (HFZ) Gold mineralization was encountered in multiple wide-spaced drill holes and surface samples at the HFZ. Immediately adjacent to the Yellow Pine pit boundary, the HFZ is over 100 meters wide and has been traced along strike for 500 meters, with historical data suggesting the potential for high-grade lenses. At the Hangar Flats deposit, drilling of the NDMEA segment again discovered high-grade gold, while drilling at the Hangar Flats deposit targeting critical minerals encountered significant antimony and tungsten mineralization. Perpetua Resources indicated that these results collectively point to increased potential for expansion beyond the current resource envelope. The project currently hosts indicated and inferred gold resources of 3.1 million ounces and 99.8 million pounds of antimony. These targets are all based on previous drilling, historical mining activity, and recently delineated prospectivity areas across the entire property, and the company noted that any activities beyond the currently permitted footprint would be subject to additional regulatory review.

[SMM Tungsten Analysis: Tug-of-war Between Mine-side Price Holding and End-user Off-season, Short-term Tungsten Market Likely to Move Sideways] SMM July 23 News: This week, the tungsten market center rebounded slightly. At the beginning of the week, upstream raw material transactions turned active, and the market transaction center edged up slightly. Mine-side suppliers’ sentiment of holding back from selling intensified, and prices held firm. However, there was ample supply of low and medium-grade ore in the market, and the price spread between high-grade and low-grade ore transaction prices widened. At the start of the week, a tungsten enterprise in Jiangxi published its long-term contract prices, which were generally close to the spot order transaction prices of that day. The price spread between long-term contracts and spot orders narrowed. As the weekend approached, market sentiment diverged,

Entering late July, China's tungsten market has overall moved into a phase of stage-based consolidation and repair. Following a sustained deep pullback in tungsten prices, low-priced goods in the market have become hard to find, as upstream mines and supplier traders have been hoarding, holding back from selling, and showing a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while the center of spot order transactions has steadily moved higher. Coupled with the boost to market sentiment from long-term contract purchase quotations by leading tungsten enterprises, transaction activity at the mine and APT ends has recently warmed up. However, constrained by the traditional consumption off-season in the industry, downstream end-use demand has yet to see a marked recovery, leaving the overall market in a structurally split pattern, with upstream raw material prices rebounding as suppliers hold prices firm, while downstream demand remains relatively weak. A Tungsten Enterprise Lowers Long-Term Contract Quotations for the Second Half of July A tungsten enterprise has lowered its long-term contract quotations for the second half of July, as detailed below: According to the long-term contract purchase quotations of a tungsten enterprise in Chongyi for the second half of July, the details are as follows: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 411,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 410,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 3. APT (national standard grade 0): 605,000 yuan/mt, down by 55,000 yuan/mt from the previous quotation. Tungsten Prices Bid Farewell to Declines, Notch Two Consecutive Gains Looking back at the trend in this cycle, after the average price of wolframite concentrates rebounded to the previous high of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne in mid-to-early June, the trend continued to weaken. The core drag factor was the persistently sluggish downstream end-use demand, compounded by the ongoing digestion cycle of raw material inventories after earlier concentrated stockpiling by enterprises, which significantly weakened market price support. Starting from June 17, tungsten prices embarked on an overall weak downward path. Compared to the average price of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 16, the average price of 402,500 yuan/standard tonne on July 17 marked a decline of 125,000 yuan/standard tonne over a period of just over one month, a drop of 23.7%. After the rapid pullback in tungsten prices, stage-based bottom support gradually emerged in the tungsten market. The tightening of upstream goods and rising sentiment of holding back from selling and holding prices firm pushed tungsten prices to stop falling and stabilize, then ushered in a two-consecutive-day rebound. According to SMM quotations, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on July 21 was 410,000~415,000 yuan/standard tonne, with an average price of 412,500 yuan/standard tonne, up 1.23% from the previous trading day. Currently, low-priced goods on the market are quite scarce, and suppliers have generally ceased offloading at low prices. Coupled with the fact that long-term contract purchase prices from leading tungsten enterprises are higher than mainstream spot transaction prices, this has effectively boosted market confidence, driving spot transaction prices to gradually converge with long-term contract prices. Market Outlook Short term, supported by tightening raw material supply and strong sentiment among suppliers to hold prices firm, the tungsten market will mainly see a slight rebound and consolidation at lows in late July, and the market does not yet have the conditions for a significant reversal. A substantial recovery in the market still hinges on the traditional downstream consumption peak season from August to September, driven by end-user order recovery and the release of concentrated restocking demand to push prices higher. Currently, the industry chain has relatively consistent expectations for the seasonal recovery, and some enterprises may gradually begin advance stockpiling at low prices, which is expected to bring marginal improvement to the tungsten market. At present, the tungsten market is at a critical period of stopping the decline and consolidating at lows, with market recovery focused on the upstream raw material side. The downstream tungsten powder and cemented carbide sectors remain trapped in the traditional consumption off-season, with stable end-user operating rates and scarce new orders. Enterprises generally adopt a just-in-time essential restocking strategy, with no large-scale stockpiling activity, unable to support a significant rise in raw material prices. However, the industry chain has formed a broad consensus on the market recovery after August, and advance stockpiling at low prices in the market is gradually increasing, which is expected to drive the industry chain’s marginal improvement earlier. Markets outside China are affected by the summer holiday, with sluggish trading and high prices but no actual transactions, as prices continue to consolidate at high levels, with very low risk of a sharp decline. The divergent pattern between domestic and overseas markets is expected to persist. Going forward, close attention will be paid to four key variables: first, the pace of supply release from domestic mines and changes in suppliers’ holding firm sentiment; second, the pace of downstream cemented carbide end-user operating rate recovery and the strength of concentrated restocking; third, the market guidance role of APT long-term contract prices; fourth, the circulation volume of recycled tungsten scrap and the procurement release of downstream recycled raw materials. Recommended reading:

[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Multiple Bearish Factors Weigh on Tungsten Market, Short-Term Weak Consolidation] SMM July 13 news: Overall, the China tungsten market in July faces multiple bearish factors, including pending clearance of previous inventories of upstream tungsten concentrates and smelting products, weakening demand from downstream cemented carbide during the off-season, and tightening export control policies that leave little room for growth in export orders. In the short term, the market will mainly follow a downward trend to hit bottom.

In H1 2026, the tungsten market was largely driven by supply-side dynamics, experiencing a complete cycle of sharp rises and falls before finally retreating from highs to close the half-year. Entering H2, the annual tungsten ore mining quotas have been fully implemented, monthly mine output has stabilized, and there is no significant room for further production cuts or new volume increases.

【SMM Tungsten Express】Almonty Industries announced that its Sangdong tungsten mine processing plant in South Korea has commenced operations, converting ore into saleable tungsten concentrate. As of end-June, the company had stockpiled approximately 139,700 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 0.25% WO₃, representing an illustrative gross in-process value of approximately US$68 million at current tungsten prices. The milestone marks Sangdong's transition from development into revenue-generating operations.

Entering July, the tungsten industry chain prices remained in the doldrums. A large tungsten enterprise lowered its long-term contract purchase quotes for the first half of July, while the Ganzhou Tungsten Association simultaneously lowered its monthly forecast average prices for all tungsten product categories, with prices across all categories down MoM. The spot market also followed suit and was under pressure. According to SMM quotes, wolframite concentrates (≥65%) have been on a weak decline since mid-to-late June. Looking back at the market trend this year, tungsten prices experienced wild swings. Comparing the two downward cycles, the overall decline in this round of adjustment that started in mid-June has narrowed compared with the first correction from March to May. Currently, the traditional off-season effect is prominent. Factors such as weak downstream demand and raw material inventory awaiting digestion continue to weigh on tungsten price performance; however, the scarcity of low-priced high-grade ore supplies will provide some support for tungsten prices. Industry Long-term Contract Quotes and Association Monthly Forecast Prices All Lowered A tungsten enterprise lowered its long-term contract quotes for the first half of July, as follows: According to Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd. on July 6, its long-term contract purchase quotes for the first half of July are: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 448,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 72,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous round of quotes; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 447,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 72,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous round of quotes; 3. APT (GB Grade 0): 660,000 yuan/mt, down 120,000 yuan/mt from the previous round of quotes. The Ganzhou Tungsten Association released its forecast average prices of tungsten products for July 2026, with 55% wolframite concentrates at 448,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 57,000 yuan/mt from June; APT at 660,000 yuan/mt, down 100,000 yuan/mt from June; and medium-grain tungsten powder at 1,100 yuan/kg, down 200 yuan/kg from June. Wolframite Concentrates Fall 13.93% in Less Than a Month According to SMM quotes, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on July 7 was 453,000-455,000 yuan/standard tonne, with an average price of 454,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 3.61% from the previous trading day. Looking back at the short-term trend, after the average price of wolframite concentrates rebounded to a previous high of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne in early-to-mid June, weak downstream demand, together with the fact that raw material inventory accumulated from earlier concentrated enterprise stockpiling was still in the digestion cycle, weakened market support, and tungsten prices began a general weak downward adjustment from June 17. Compared with the average price of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 16, the average price of 454,000 yuan/standard tonne on July 7 represents a decline of 73,500 yuan/standard tonne in less than a month, a drop of 13.93%. Taking a longer-term perspective, entering July, the average price trend of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) so far this year has been a dramatic roller coaster. Supported by tight raw material supply at the start of the year, wolframite concentrates (≥65%) began at 453,500 yuan/standard tonne on January 5, before surging to a historic high of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne on March 13. At such high prices, market caution and fear of high prices gradually intensified, and coupled with limited acceptance from end-use demand, tungsten prices embarked on an overall downward trajectory, ultimately falling to an intra-year low of 400,500 yuan/standard tonne on May 25. After a deep correction in the preceding period, the market had a demand for an oversold recovery. This, combined with the concentrated release of phased restocking demand, saw tungsten prices start a rebound recovery from May 27, rising to 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 10. A comparison of two complete downward cycles so far this year reveals that the first round of correction after the initial-year surge featured a wider range of fluctuation, while the current correction, which began in mid-June, has seen a narrower overall downward magnitude relative to the previous correction. Synthesizing key price periods, it is clear that the wolframite concentrates market has experienced a large magnitude of fluctuations and prominent volatile characteristics this year. Outlook Looking ahead, in the short term, July marks the entry into the traditional off-season for downstream consumption. Purchasing willingness from cemented carbide and mechanical processing enterprises is weak, and market demand is performing mediocrely. However, circulating supply of high-grade tungsten ore is relatively scarce. With bullish and bearish factors checking each other, tungsten prices are expected to maintain narrow sideways consolidation. The pace of improvement on the downstream demand side remains a key focus going forward. In the medium and long term, domestic regulation on primary tungsten mining is continuously tightening, rigid demand support exists from the cemented carbide sector, and the scale of net tungsten product exports is growing steadily, leaving a supply-demand gap for the element tungsten throughout the year. In Q3, the insufficient alignment of mining indicators will create expectations of tightening on the raw material supply side, while the traditional "September-October peak season" is expected to drive a recovery in enterprise restocking demand. Simultaneously, rigid demand in military, high-end equipment, and new energy sectors continues to expand, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets is also expected to continuously boost export orders. Multiple favorable factors provide strong support for the medium and long-term central price range of tungsten. However, vigilance is needed regarding the risk of rapid market rises squeezing downstream processing enterprises' profits, which could force end-user production cuts and create negative feedback. Overall, the tungsten market is expected to follow a mild and orderly upward trajectory thereafter. Recommended Reading:

In June, global scrap tungsten markets diverged. India followed China's tungsten price rally, with active trading and higher prices in mid-June before cooling as China softened. Europe saw low-level consolidation due to high speculative inventories, but prices began to edge up in late June as stocks cleared. China's tungsten market experienced a sharp rebound followed by a pullback, and is expected to consolidate in the near term, while medium-to-long-term fundamentals remain solid.