July entered the traditional consumption off-season, with SHFE copper fluctuating mainly between 102,000 and 104,000 yuan/mt. What factors are driving the front-month strength? This article sets aside macro factors and takes a closer look at fundamental indicators: why does the seasonal off-season exhibit a backwardation structure? In fact, it all boils down to supply. The most direct indicator is the change in inventories (social inventories have destocked by about 60,000 mt over the past two weeks). The heavy destocking over multiple consecutive statistical cycles reflects both real supply-demand factors and unexpected factors (such as the recent typhoon, which added fuel at a very opportune moment). The continued decline in spot copper concentrate TCs shows that smelters are still struggling to purchase raw materials. Coupled with copper prices consolidating within a range, copper scrap being disrupted by policy issues, relatively limited shipments, and the price spread between primary metal and scrap offering no advantage for consumption, anode plate supply is also relatively tight. The raw material supply tightness remains unignorable. In fact, clues can already be seen from China's copper cathode production in June, which unexpectedly fell by about 20,000 mt. From July to August, large smelters are still undergoing maintenance, mostly affecting volumes supplied to east China. Despite efforts to keep long-term contract supply of copper cathode as unaffected as possible, the spot order market is indeed tight. Moreover, there is room for paper business in the spot copper cathode market, which has tied up some available cargoes, making actual available spot cargoes even scarcer. Looking at the price spread between non-registered and SX-EW copper, it has been rapidly narrowing recently. Downstream purchase willingness for such cargoes has increased, on one hand due to tight copper scrap, and on the other hand, as the marginal price increases for standard-quality copper and high-quality copper have widened, non-registered cargoes have become more cost-competitive. Currently, there is divergence regarding the SHFE copper price of 103,000 yuan/mt, but most downstream players indicate that new orders exist when copper prices are between 101,800 and 102,800 yuan/mt. Coinciding with concerns over typhoon impact on cargo pick-up, cargo pick-up was concentrated during the working days last week, and active pick-up also occurred over the weekend in areas unaffected by the typhoon. Downstream operating rates partially improved last week, mainly in rod and tube sectors. The aggressive destocking last Thursday and this Monday did have consumption factors at play, but supply issues remain the main cause of the recent continued destocking. Additionally, due to the typhoon, some cargoes could not arrive at ports and enter warehouses normally, thus accelerating the destocking speed in the recent two statistical cycles. Supply is indeed tight, consumption is supported, and combined with financial factors and typhoon disruptions, these factors jointly favor the widening of the near-month backwardation structure. But in fact, even without the typhoon disruptions, the strengthening of the backwardation structure, given the above fundamental factors, had been "long in the making." The market is concerned about whether a large inventory buildup will materialize after the typhoon impact ends, but this is not the case. Recently, imported cargo arrivals have been scattered, and the concentrated maintenance at smelters is unlikely to end in the short term, so domestic supply will not increase sharply. Even if consumption sentiment retreats slightly, inventory is unlikely to see a concentrated buildup. Moreover, against the backdrop of strong spot premiums, most cargo will be held as spot material in warehouses rather than as futures warrants. Currently, the warrant inventory ratio in the Shanghai region is not at an absolute low compared to historical years, which caps further widening of the backwardation structure. It is expected that near delivery, the SHFE near-month contract backwardation could still widen to 300 yuan/mt, while Shanghai spot copper premiums are currently at 200 yuan/mt. Since copper prices began their upward trend in 2024, a strong coexistence of backwardation and spot premiums has been rare, so recent subtle changes in fundamental indicators have drawn significant attention.

Argentina's Ministry of Economy has terminated anti-dumping (AD) duties on aluminium tubes imported from China, following the conclusion of a sunset and changed circumstances review. The decision was formalised through Resolution No. 883, issued on 3 July 2026, bringing to an end the review process that was launched in November 2025. The measure applies to unalloyed aluminium tubes and tubes manufactured from 3xxx and 6xxx series aluminium alloys under IRAM Standard 681, with an external diameter of 130 mm or less, including products supplied in coil form. Precision drawn tubing made from the 3xxx series remains excluded from the scope of the decision.

Tightening supply policy in Indonesia, new import quotas and carbon costs in the EU, and tariff walls in the US pushed benchmark stainless steel prices higher across nearly every major market in the first half of 2026 — even as real demand stayed weak everywhere, turning global trade increasingly into a fight over market access rather than supply and demand.

India has extended AD duties on seamless tubes, pipes, and hollow profiles of iron, alloy or non-alloy steel from China until January 27, 2027. The extension gives the DGTR time to complete the sunset review initiated in March to assess whether terminating measures would renew dumping and harm domestic industries. Local producers Jindal Saw, Kirloskar Ferrous, and Maharashtra Seamless requested the continuation, arguing Chinese dumped imports persist and seeking higher duties, but proposed excluding OCTG from the probe. The duties were first imposed in 2017 and extended in 2021, originally set to expire on October 27, 2026. The review covers products under tariff heading 7304 with outer diameter not exceeding 355.6 mm.

SMS group has received an order from Baosteel Steel Pipe (Ma'anshan) Science and Technology Co., Ltd. to supply two PQF® seamless tube rolling lines in Ma'anshan. SMS will provide core equipment, Level 1 automation, technological measurement systems, and CARTAneo® process technology software for both plants. Each line is designed with annual capacity of nearly 1.18 million tonnes. First pipe production is scheduled for Q4 2027.

[SMM Analysis] SHFE copper cathode spot premiums experienced notable volatility in H1 2026, marked by deep discounts in phases, a recovery in Q2, and a return to positive territory by mid-year. In Q1, seasonal inventory buildup after the Chinese New Year, slow downstream recovery, and disruptions from contract rollovers repeatedly put spot premiums under pressure. Entering Q2, consumption improved QoQ, and concentrated smelter maintenance drove continuous destocking of domestic social inventory. In particular, the rapid decline in Guangdong inventory lifted spot premiums in South China, opened arbitrage opportunities for shipping inventory from East China to South China, and provided support to premiums in Shanghai and other regions. From May to June, although high copper prices and off-season expectations suppressed downstream purchases, the widening LME-COMEX spread diverted overseas supply to the US market, constraining the pace of imported copper replenishment in China, with low inventory levels still underpinning spot market resilience. Looking ahead to H2, SHFE copper premiums will be shaped by the interplay of inventory, consumption, imports, and supply additions. The Q3 off-season may limit the upside for premiums, but low inventories, uncertainty over import replenishment, and tight regional supply will continue to support spot premiums. In Q4, attention should be focused on the capacity ramp-up of new expansion projects such as Humon Phase 2, Chifeng Jintong Phase 2, and Shenghai Phase 2. If new supply is released smoothly, the import window opens, and consumption recovery remains weak, spot premiums may gradually come under pressure. However, if inventories stay low and import replenishment remains limited, premiums could still see intermittent strengthening opportunities.

On June 30, 2026, the National Energy Administration issued the Guide to Data Classification and Grading for the Energy Industry (2026 Edition), under which hydrogen energy was officially classified as a first-level energy data category, positioned alongside traditional fossil fuels such as coal, crude oil, and natural gas. This marks the end of the domestic hydrogen industry's single demonstration phase and its full entry into a development cycle characterized by large-scale, standardized systems. This top-level data system adjustment reshapes hydrogen energy's national strategic positioning, and by leveraging a unified data management framework to link the entire chain of green hydrogen cost reduction, storage and transportation infrastructure, and diversified applications, the industry is expected to usher in a new expansion cycle. I. Policy Iteration: The Strategic Status of Hydrogen Energy Achieves a Hierarchical Leap (A) Core Basis for the Document's Issuance The Guide serves as a supporting detailed rule for the implementation of the Data Security Law and the Administrative Measures for Energy Industry Data Security (Trial), delineating a total of 12 first-level energy data categories, including coal, oil and gas, and hydrogen energy. For the first time, hydrogen energy has been incorporated into the basic energy data sequence, integrating the hydrogen energy industry into the national unified energy security regulatory system. (B) Policy Evolution Trajectory In 2022, the Medium and Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035) legally affirmed the energy attribute of hydrogen energy for the first time, setting the goal of diversified commercial applications by 2035. With the implementation of this 2026 data classification document, hydrogen energy has completed its identity transition from a "demonstration and pilot industry" to a "national basic energy category." Industrial development has shifted from being driven purely by policy subsidies to a new phase where policy guidance, scenario validation, and market operations run in parallel. (C) Three Supporting Logics of the Top-Level Strategy Energy Security: Global geopolitical conflicts have intensified fluctuations in oil and gas imports. In 2025, China's dependence on foreign crude oil was 72.3%, and that on foreign natural gas was 43.8%. Hydrogen energy, produced from renewable resources such as wind, solar, and hydropower, can substantially reduce dependence on imported fossil energy while simultaneously fulfilling the carbon peaking and neutrality targets. Correction of Domestic Supply-Demand Mismatch: In 2024, China's total hydrogen production stood at 37.28 million mt, firmly ranking first in the world. Domestic planned green hydrogen capacity accounts for 52% of the global total planned green hydrogen capacity, yet the average annual operating rate of commissioned green hydrogen facilities is only 23.6%, with substantial electrolyzer capacity remaining idle. Unified data standards will compel the industry to shift from blindly expanding hydrogen production capacity toward demand-side development oriented to matching downstream consumption scenarios. Breakthrough in Global Hydrogen Competition: The EU will implement its Hydrogen Strategy Act in 2026, and the US allocates over $9 billion annually in hydrogen industry subsidies. Europe and the United States are accelerating their efforts to seize the discourse power in hydrogen standards and trade. By perfecting its local standard system through hydrogen energy data classification management, China aims to shore up its industrial digital shortcomings and enhance the international competitiveness of its hydrogen energy projects and equipment exports. II. Industrial Empowerment Value of the First-Level Hydrogen Data Classification System (A) Establishing a Bottom Line for Whole-Chain Data Compliance and Security The Guide uniformly categorizes all energy data into three control levels: general, important, and core, covering the entire process of hydrogen production, storage, transportation, refueling, and utilization. It specifies mandatory control rules: Geographic infrastructure data for hydrogen refueling stations, hydrogen production bases, and pipeline networks with coordinate accuracy ≤100 meters is classified as important data, with strict limits on external disclosure. Real-time operational control commands for water electrolysis hydrogen production units and sensor data from high-pressure storage and transportation equipment are classified as core data, with unencrypted external transmission prohibited. Electricity load data from wind- and solar-power integrated new energy plants supporting electrolytic hydrogen production is protected under a tiered scheme, with electricity consumption data from special-grade green electricity hydrogen projects implementing the highest protection standards. All enterprises are required to establish full-life-cycle data ledgers, mandatorily use commercial encryption technology, and simultaneously implement the protection requirements for Classified Protection of Cybersecurity 2.0 and critical information infrastructure, in order to avert risks such as the leakage of monitoring data from coal chemical and hydrogen plants or cyber attacks on industrial control systems. (B) Restoring Industry Investment Confidence and Reducing Uncertainty in Market-Oriented Development By year-end 2025, a total of 627 wind- and solar-power water electrolysis hydrogen projects had been filed nationwide, with a planned total investment exceeding 860 billion yuan. However, only 148 projects actually commenced construction, yielding a comprehensive construction start rate of 23.6%. The core pain point of the industry's sluggish investment was the absence of a unified statistical scope, cost accounting method, and operational supervision standard for hydrogen energy, causing capital to remain on the long-term sidelines. This policy improves the investment environment in three aspects: The National Energy Administration concurrently released unified hydrogen energy data statistical specifications, eliminating the need for enterprises to build their own differentiated data systems and reducing per-project digital compliance costs by 30%-45%. It is also aligned with 19 current draft national hydrogen standards for public comment, achieving bidirectional unification of data standards with equipment, storage and transportation, and refueling technology standards, thereby boosting the export recognition of domestically produced electrolyzers and hydrogen storage vessels. Standardized data furnishes financial institutions with a unified basis for cost estimation and project revenue assessment, substantially diminishing investment risks arising from policy changes. Supporting policies simultaneously tightened industry assessment: In April 2026, the National Energy Administration clarified dynamic elimination mechanisms for nine major hydrogen pilot regions. Projects are assessed monthly on economic viability based on operational data after commissioning; those without a stable profit model for six consecutive months are directly withdrawn, marking the industry's complete departure from the era of extensive subsidies. (III) Enabling Data Interoperability Across the Industry Chain to Revitalize Idle Hydrogen Capacity The Guidelines categorize a secondary-level hydrogen data catalog, covering seven segments: planning, engineering construction, hydrogen production, tube trailer storage and transportation, hydrogen refueling, transportation/industrial consumption, and technological R&D, thereby establishing a framework for data interoperability across the entire industry chain. Benchmark practice: Rongcheng New Energy built China’s first system for capitalizing hydrogen entire industry chain data assets. Its hydrogen big data platform aggregates data from all dimensions including hydrogen production units, tube trailers, hydrogen refueling stations, heavy truck operations, and equipment maintenance, accumulating a total of 21.08 billion real-time operational data entries. Leveraging cross-segment data synergy, the enterprise reduced its overall hydrogen production, storage, and transportation costs by 12.7% and lowered equipment idle rate by 18%. Meanwhile, the policy mandates that enterprises holding important or core hydrogen data undergo at least one security risk assessment per year. Cross-border data transfers of hydrogen technology and capacity data, as well as cross-enterprise data flows, must be preceded by a specialized risk review. This not only controls cross-border data security but also delineates a clear compliance pathway for domestic enterprises’ hydrogen project cooperation outside China, facilitating the export of green hydrogen equipment and complete hydrogen production processes. III. Conclusion Elevating hydrogen to a first-level energy data category is a landmark policy move that incorporates hydrogen into the management of the fundamental energy system. On one hand, through three-tier data security controls, it fills the gaps in digital regulation of hydrogen and mitigates cybersecurity risks in the industry. On the other hand, it unifies industry standards for statistics, operations, and cost data, alleviating three core pain points: idle green hydrogen capacity, investment wait-and-see attitude, and fragmentation of the industry chain. Against the backdrop of intensifying global hydrogen competition and China's dual goals of energy supply security and carbon reduction, data standardization will accelerate the large-scale deployment of green hydrogen, the comprehensive layout of storage and transportation pipeline networks, and propel hydrogen from a niche demonstration track to a core emerging industry that supports China's energy transition and participates in global energy competition.

New country-by-country quotas reward South Korea's balanced access and Indonesia's hot-rolled position, while Taiwan, China, Vietnam and Turkey face a tighter squeeze once melt-and-pour disclosure rules bite from October 1.

According to the quota annex of EU Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1457, annual country-specific allocations for key stainless steel product categories are as follows: Category 8 (hot-rolled sheets/strips): Indonesia 35,843t, India 26,019t, Chinese Taiwan 19,984t, Korea 20,735t, Türkiye 13,727t, China 9,515t; Category 9 (cold-rolled sheets/strips): Korea 101,884t, Türkiye 69,038t, Chinese Taiwan 52,985t, South Africa 52,607t, Vietnam 43,853t, China 40,431t, India 38,054t; Category 14 (stainless bars and light sections): India 92,557t, Switzerland 10,786t, China 3,585t; Category 15 (stainless wire rod): India 18,772t, Korea 5,212t, Chinese Taiwan 4,305t, Japan 2,400t, China 1,374t; Category 22 (seamless stainless tubes): India 15,329t, Ukraine 6,524t, Korea 2,392t, China 1,073t. Total annual quotas across all 26 product categories amount to 18,345,922 tonnes, with a 50% out-of-quota duty. Quotas are split into MFN and FTA parts, administered on a first-come, first-served basis, and remain in force through December 31, 2026.

Hardwell Copper Group Co., Ltd. is a US-invested multinational copper pipe & tube enterprise, established in January 2025 and headquartered in New York, US. The company’s production site in Thailand is located in Khao Khansong Sub-district, Sri Racha District, Chonburi Province, situated in the core area of Thailand’s EEC Eastern Economic Corridor, adjacent to the Laem Chabang deep-sea port, with logistics covering Southeast Asia and global markets. In July 2025, the company obtained the Thailand BOI official investment promotion certificate, enjoying green manufacturing special support policies under the EEC, including a maximum 15-year corporate income tax exemption and zero import tariffs on production equipment. The total project investment is 5 billion Thai Baht for constructing green copper pipe & tube production lines, supported by a recyclable water treatment system to advance low-carbon production. The first phase has an annual capacity of 20,000 mt of precision refrigeration copper pipe & tube. Production equipment is currently in the commissioning stage, with production expected to commence around October 2026. The second phase can be expanded to 50,000 mt per year, and upon reaching full capacity, the annual output value will be 10 billion Thai Baht. The company uses its Thailand plant as the Asia-Pacific manufacturing hub, with direct sales teams established in the US and Europe, offering localized supply and technical services to the global heating and cooling industry, aiming to become the leading high-end copper pipe & tube supplier in Southeast Asia.