The gap between Q3 QMJP offers and actual transaction prices in the Japanese market has widened significantly. At present, the physical spot premium for primary aluminum ingots in Japan stands at USD 395 per metric ton, representing a month-on-month increase of USD 43.5 per ton versus Q2. Nevertheless, overall market sentiment remains bearish, with spot transactions oscillating around the USD 385 per ton mark. The dual pressures from supply and demand fundamentals constitute the core driver behind the softening spot premium in Japan. On the supply side, market expectations for growing global aluminum supply surplus have intensified steadily. In addition, steady progress has been made in resuming aluminum production capacity in the Middle East, reinforcing expectations of rising overseas supply and capping upward room for spot premiums. On the demand side, Japan has entered its traditional seasonal lull in consumption as scheduled. Downstream end-users have slowed purchasing activity amid sluggish demand, gaining stronger bargaining power and shifting the supply-demand negotiation dynamic firmly in favor of buyers. As a result, the spread between QMJP ingot offers and physical transaction prices in Japan ranges from USD 65 to 70 per ton. Following the official release of Q3 QMJP pricing, spot offer prices in Japan firmed up temporarily, yet this failed to boost trading volumes, leaving the market locked in a stalemate between bulls and bears. Amid persistent expectations of expanded supply, the temporary firmness in spot prices is projected to give way to corrective declines. The bearish overall trend for Japanese aluminum ingot premiums in Q3 is unlikely to reverse. In other regional markets, trading activity in the spot aluminum ingot markets of Thailand and South Korea remained extremely muted this week with subdued overall liquidity. In the early week, ahead of the official publication of Q3 QMJP benchmarks, both traders and downstream manufacturers adopted a wait-and-see stance, limiting inventory restocking strictly to immediate operational needs. After the latest Q3 QMJP prices were released, benchmark levels fell short of pre-market consensus forecasts, prompting sellers across Southeast Asia and South Korea to lift their asking prices. Actual trading data, however, shows downstream buyers in Thailand and South Korea continued to purchase only to cover rigid demand, lacking substantive demand support. Spot premiums and discounts have thus remained range-bound at elevated levels. In the short term, resuming Middle Eastern smelter capacity and incremental overseas aluminum supply will continue to cap premium upside, compounded by weak seasonal end-user demand that adds further downward pressure to the market. Asian spot aluminum ingot premiums and discounts are therefore expected to maintain divergent, softening momentum, marked by volatile asking prices and persistently thin physical trading volumes in the near term.

SMM News Release, July 3 Domestic molybdenum market saw a trend of correction at the start of June, rally in mid-month and narrow high-level fluctuations at month-end, with mainstream products posting modest gains throughout the month.

[TCs Continue to Pull Back, Zinc Prices Maintain Fluctuating Trend] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2608 contract opened at 24,215 yuan/mt, then dipped to 24,180 yuan/mt during the session. Subsequently, bears reduced positions, pushing prices higher to touch 24,430 yuan/mt. However, bulls then cut positions, causing prices to pull back and fluctuate around a center of 24,315 yuan/mt. The contract eventually closed up at 24,295 yuan/mt, a gain of 85 yuan/mt, or 0.35%. Trading volume increased to 63,712 lots, while open interest decreased by 2,246 lots to 90,310 lots...

[SMM HRC Daily Trading] On July 3, the combined daily trading volume of HRC among sample enterprises in SMM's four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) totaled 11,550 mt, up 410 mt (+3.6%) DoD, down 25.05% calendar YoY, and up 6.94% lunar YoY.

DCE iron ore futures trended weaker today, with the I2609 contract closing at 734 yuan/mt, down 1.74% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices fell by 3–8 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, and steel mill purchases were mostly for restocking. As of now, spot trading volume was moderate. According to an SMM survey, total iron ore inventory across 35 main ports nationwide stood at 148.3 million mt this week, down 360,000 mt WoW, indicating a slight overall destocking. Over the same period, the daily average port pick-up volume edged up 68,000 mt to 3.298 million mt, reflecting relatively healthy short-term demand. Next week, port arrivals are expected to continue increasing, leading to a more ample supply, while port pick-up volume may pull back as hot metal production gradually declines. Iron ore price support has weakened, but short-term prices are likely to fluctuate within a range amid supply-demand conditions in line with market expectations. [SMM Steel]

This week, rare earth oxide and metal prices outside China remained largely stable amid sluggish trading, while price fluctuations in China had not yet been transmitted. Industrial developments were intensive: India’s Mecwin teamed up with Germany’s Fraunhofer to lay out the entire NdFeB industry chain; Sweden approved a 25-year lease for the North Kärr rare earth mine, and Namibia’s Kieshoehe project verified deep potential. Iluka obtained an Australian government loan to advance the Eneabba refinery, and ULVAC, driven by surging demand in Europe and the United States, planned to build a new melting furnace production line in Japan. U.S. and Australian enterprises achieved breakthroughs in high-purity rare earth refining and hard disk recycling technologies, while Canada and Japan actively promoted cooperation on the critical minerals supply chain.

[ADC12 Price Daily Review: Futures and Spot Prices Strengthen in Tandem, but Demand Concerns Linger; Weakening Prices Outside China Drive Continued Recovery of the Domestic-Overseas Spread] Today, quoted prices in the ADC12 market generally extended their upward trend. The SMM ADC12 price rose 200 yuan/mt from the previous day to 24,000 yuan/mt.

[Guangdong Zinc: End-users Hold Certain Inventory, Market Transactions Struggle to Show Significant Increase] Guangdong 0# zinc mainly traded at 24,080-24,360 yuan/mt, with mainstream brands quoted at discounts of 100-70 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract, and at a discount of 15 yuan/mt against Shanghai spot zinc. The Shanghai-Guangdong price spread widened...

According to SMM, the Q3 transaction price for lead concentrates from a mine in South China was the arithmetic average of the monthly average weekly SMM Pb50 domestic processing fee prices in the delivery month minus 1,015 yuan per mt in metal content, with a lead content of 55%, silver content of 300-400 g and a silver coefficient of 95.99% (copper content below 1 g and zinc content around 7 g are not priced), and a trading volume of 2,800 mt.

SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Minutes: This week, the cobalt industry chain overall stopped falling and stabilized. Spot refined cobalt prices rebounded slightly, boosted by policy news from the DRC, and market sentiment recovered somewhat, but actual transactions were still dominated by rigid demand stockpiling. Cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable, with miners’ quotations firm but limited acceptance from downstream smelters, resulting in a significant bid-ask spread. Market transactions for cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, and Co3O4 remained sluggish, with strong downstream wait-and-see sentiment and restocking demand not yet significantly released. Cobalt powder prices continued to decline, as off-season pressure on cemented carbide persisted. Ternary cathode precursor prices weakened, while ternary cathode materials rebounded slightly but with limited transactions. LCO demand remained relatively weak.