Next week, the US Fed will announce its interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections, and the market widely expects rates to remain unchanged. On the macro data front, key releases will include China's total retail sales YoY from January to February, China's industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size YoY from January to February, and the US February PPI YoY. In addition, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to France from March 14 to 17 for economic and trade consultations with the US side. LME lead, markets outside China continue to be affected by developments in the Middle East, including rising natural gas prices and hindered battery transportation, constraining both the supply and demand sides of lead. Meanwhile, China's lead ingot import window opened further, attracting overseas lead ingots into the Chinese market. In Southeast Asia, for example, spot lead circulation declined and premiums rose, which may provide some support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,900-1,960/mt next week. SHFE lead, as the SHFE lead 2603 contract nears delivery, suppliers have been shifting inventory and shipping to delivery warehouse, leading to a continued increase in visible lead ingot inventory. Together with growing arrivals of imported lead, this dragged the overall price center lower. At the same time, losses in secondary lead widened, and many smelters cut production or postponed the resumption of operations, while smelters' in-factory inventory declined. In the short term, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. After the bearish impact of inventory buildup from delivery warehouse shipments is fully absorbed, attention should be paid to the possibility of lead prices stabilizing. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,400-16,850 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,650 yuan/mt. On the consumption side, downstream enterprises maintained stable production, and as lead prices fell, producers will gradually buy the dip. Supply side, production at primary lead and secondary lead enterprises is gradually recovering, while inventory pressure from enterprises' in-factory inventory eased. In addition, given the prominent losses in secondary lead, even with supplementary imported crude lead, spot discounts for primary lead and secondary lead are unlikely to widen further and may instead narrow as lead prices weaken.

The Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA) has recently urged the government to permanently remove customs duties on imported scrap and ferroalloys, and to classify chromium as a critical mineral, in order to support the country’s planned expansion of stainless steel capacity from 7 million mt to 11 million mt. At the same time, ISSDA has also called for stronger measures to address the impact of low-priced Chinese products, warning that some Chinese material may be entering India through third countries such as Vietnam, thereby bypassing existing trade protection measures. These statements suggest that the Indian stainless steel industry is no longer simply asking for “growth support.” Instead, it has entered a more complex phase, where it wants to accelerate capacity expansion while also defending itself against external competition. Capacity Expansion Is Clear, and India’s Stainless Steel Industry Has Entered a Critical Phase At first glance, these may look like two conflicting policy demands. On the one hand, the industry wants lower import duties on raw materials to reduce production costs. On the other hand, it is asking the government to tighten import restrictions and strengthen trade protection. But when viewed within the broader industry cycle that India’s stainless steel sector is currently going through, these two demands are not contradictory. They are simply two sides of the same expansion cycle. For domestic stainless steel producers in India, the most important goal over the next few years is to build up local supply capacity while domestic demand is still growing. ISSDA has previously estimated that stainless steel demand in India will continue to grow by 7%–8% annually over the next two to three years. Against this backdrop, the industry wants to keep raw material costs as low as possible during the expansion phase, while also preventing low-priced imported finished products from eroding returns before local capacity expansion is complete. In other words, what worries India’s stainless steel industry most right now is not the absence of market demand, but the possibility that demand exists while the gains from expansion are undermined by imports. That is why ISSDA is simultaneously calling for the permanent removal of duties on scrap and ferroalloy imports, while also highlighting the threat posed by low-priced Chinese products. In the industry’s view, lower tariffs on raw materials would improve the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing, while stronger protection on finished products would buy time for local investment, expansion, and capacity ramp-up. This policy logic of “opening the upstream while defending the downstream” is, in essence, a typical industrial development strategy. Raw Material Security Has Become the Core Condition Behind Expansion This also reflects the industry’s growing concern over raw material supply. Scrap and ferroalloys are key inputs for stainless steel production, while chromium is a critical element in the stainless alloy system. ISSDA’s specific call to classify chromium as a critical mineral shows that its focus is no longer limited to short-term price issues, but has shifted toward medium- to long-term resource security. India has long been the world’s largest importer of stainless steel scrap. Data shows that its stainless scrap imports rose to 1.58 million mt in 2025, up significantly from 2024, further underscoring India’s continued reliance on overseas scrap supply. For a country aiming to expand stainless steel capacity from 7 million mt to 11 million mt, whether the raw material supply system can scale up in parallel will directly determine whether that expansion can actually be delivered. If import costs for scrap and ferroalloys remain high, or if chromium supply security proves insufficient, then even the most ambitious capacity plans could face rising costs, margin pressure, or slower project execution in practice. From the industry’s perspective, therefore, removing duties on imported raw materials and strengthening critical mineral management are not isolated policy demands. They are essential supporting measures for the broader expansion target. India’s stainless steel industry wants to secure the raw material base first before further releasing capacity, reflecting a deeper concern for supply chain completeness and long-term sustainability. Demand Continues to Grow, but Cheap External Supply Creates Real Pressure On the demand side, India is still seen as one of the most important growth markets for stainless steel consumption globally. With the development of manufacturing, continued infrastructure investment, and upgrading in end-use consumption, India’s stainless steel demand is expected to maintain relatively strong growth, providing a solid foundation for capacity expansion. The challenge, however, is that demand growth does not automatically mean domestic producers will benefit. If most of the incremental demand is captured by imported material, India may see consumption expand without domestic industry benefiting to the same extent. In this context, ISSDA’s concerns over Chinese oversupply spilling into India become particularly sensitive. According to media reports, ISSDA believes China has more than 8 million mt of excess stainless steel melting capacity, and that this material is seeking overseas outlets, with India standing out as one of the most attractive target markets. The reason is straightforward. On the one hand, India is itself a growth market. On the other hand, its domestic supply system is still in the process of expanding and has not yet built an unshakable market barrier, making it more exposed to external supply pressure. For Indian mills, this pressure is not only reflected in price competition, but also in investment expectations. When an industry is in the middle of an expansion phase, companies need a relatively predictable margin environment to support new investments, depreciation costs, and capacity ramp-up. If large volumes of low-priced imports continue to flow in during this period, domestic producers may struggle to convert rising demand into actual returns. The Risk of Rerouted Trade Is One of India’s Bigger Concerns Another important point in ISSDA’s latest statement is the issue of rerouted trade. The association warned that some Chinese steel products may be entering India through third countries such as Vietnam, thereby bypassing existing trade protection measures. This concern is easy to understand. In recent years, amid ongoing global trade friction and stricter origin management, practices such as third-country rerouting, supply chain detours, and origin restructuring have come under increasing scrutiny. For India, this means that even if trade protection measures exist on paper, actual import pressure may not disappear in practice. In other words, what truly concerns the industry is not simply whether tariffs or barriers exist, but whether these measures can actually work as intended. If external supply can continue entering India through more complex trade routes, then the competitive pressure facing domestic producers will not ease in any meaningful way, weakening the real impact of policy protection. India’s Core Objective Is to Turn Demand Advantage Into Industrial Advantage At a deeper level, India’s stainless steel industry is moving from a stage of demand-driven growth to one of broader industrial competition. In the past, discussion of India’s stainless steel market often focused on its consumption growth potential, including its large population base, urbanization, and manufacturing upgrade. But as consumption continues to expand, the question is no longer simply whether demand will grow, but who will ultimately capture that growth. If domestic demand keeps rising while most of the incremental market is filled by imports, India may become a major consumption market without necessarily becoming a true manufacturing powerhouse. What ISSDA is now pushing for is, in effect, the key step needed to turn India’s demand advantage into industrial advantage. That is why the industry is asking the government to lower upstream raw material costs while at the same time strengthening trade defense at the finished-product end. The underlying logic is not simply to reject imports, but to create a more supportive environment for domestic manufacturing to grow and attract investment. The Direction of Future Policy Is Worth Watching Viewed within the broader competitive landscape of the Asian stainless steel market, India’s position is actually becoming quite clear. It does not want to remain merely a consumption market. It wants to become a more complete domestic manufacturing center. That means its policy stance is likely to continue along a dual-track approach: more openness toward key raw materials, and greater caution toward finished-product imports. For the market, there are several developments worth watching. First, whether India will further reduce import duties on scrap and ferroalloys on a long-term basis, or even establish a more stable policy framework for raw material support. Second, whether chromium will be formally included in the country’s critical mineral system, thereby strengthening resource security. Third, whether India will step up anti-dumping, anti-circumvention, and origin-related scrutiny, especially against third-country rerouting paths. If these directions gradually materialize, they could reshape competition in India’s stainless steel market, alter its import structure, and even change broader resource flows across Asia. Conclusion Overall, ISSDA’s latest public stance does not simply signal another trade friction issue. It reflects the broader priorities of India’s stainless steel industry as it enters a new stage: securing raw material supply and cost competitiveness for expansion, while also preventing low-priced external supply from undermining domestic industry during a critical window. Whether India’s stainless steel story can evolve from one of consumption growth into one of manufacturing rise may depend not only on the pace of demand growth itself, but also on whether the government can build a policy mix that effectively balances resources, tariffs, and trade protection in a way that genuinely supports domestic industrial upgrading. Written by: Bruce Chew | bruce.chew@metal.com +601167087088

[Environmental Protection Measures in Northern China Weighed, Overall Trading Was Average This Week]: Spot premiums in Tianjin were flat WoW this week. As of this Friday, in China, standard domestic brands were quoted at discounts of around 50-100 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, high-priced brands at discounts of around 30-60 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, and Tianjin was quoted at a premium of around 10 yuan/mt against Shanghai.

Secondary Zinc Oxide Production Fell in February, While Secondary Zinc Oxide Payables Remained Relatively Firm. What Trend Will Secondary Zinc Oxide Show in March?

This week, the center of nickel prices moved lower WoW, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract fluctuating within 132,000-140,000 yuan/mt. Early in the week, it fell below the 135,000 yuan mark amid weaker macro sentiment, but in the latter part of the week, rumors of maintenance at HPAL projects provided strong support around 133,000 yuan, and prices eventually returned to fluctuate around 137,000 yuan/mt. As of Friday's close, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rose 0.14% WoW, while LME nickel gained 0.06% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 140,510 yuan/mt this week, up 850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 6,800 yuan/mt this week, down 100 yuan/mt WoW, while premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China ranged from -300 to 400 yuan/mt. Overall spot transactions were mediocre this week. On the macro front, geopolitical risks escalated markedly this week. In his first statement after taking office, Iran's new supreme leader said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and that a new front would be opened if necessary. US ADP employment increased by 63,000 in February, above market expectations. As a result, the US dollar index strengthened लगातार, putting pressure on non-ferrous metal prices. Pan Gongsheng, governor of China's central bank, said the next step would be to build a scientific and prudent monetary policy framework, continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, and strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Inventory side, inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone was about 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 87,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 3,000 mt WoW. In Indonesia's Morowali region, some HPAL plants cut production due to tailings accidents. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East raised the risk of sulfur supply disruptions, and the market expected future MHP intermediate product supply to be tight, with strong willingness to hold prices firm, which would provide some cost support for nickel prices. However, the area above 140,000 yuan/mt still faced strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is expected to be 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt.

[Operating Rates of Galvanising Producers Continued to Increase]: This week, the operating rate of the galvanizing industry was 53, up 13.94 percentage points WoW. Raw material side, zinc prices fluctuated this week, and zinc ingots previously price-fixed by galvanising enterprises arrived one after another, leading to a slight increase in zinc ingot inventory at galvanising enterprises.

[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (March 9–March 13), the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 opened at 534 yuan/gram and closed at 541.6 yuan/gram, down 15.7 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, a decline of 2.82%. The weekly highest price was 577.85 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 522.6 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 opened at 408.75 yuan/gram and closed at 408.1 yuan/gram, down 13.8 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, down 3.27% WoW from last week’s settlement price. The weekly highest price was 430 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 397 yuan/gram. Futures trading: The most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 recorded total trading volume of 31,227 lots during the week, with total turnover of 17.368 billion yuan and open interest of 19,989 lots; open interest decreased by 1,894 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 recorded total trading volume of 11,077 lots during the week, with total turnover of 4.616 billion yuan and open interest of 7,612 lots; open interest increased by 11 lots WoW. At present, the US–Iran conflict remained dominated by political expectations, while the reality on the ground was still unresolved. On the political-expectations front, Trump frequently released marginal de-escalation signals to curb oil prices, saying the Iran issue was only a short-term military operation and expressing willingness to engage in dialogue with Iran; the TACO trade pulled oil prices back to around 90. On the reality front, Mojtaba, son of Khamenei, formally succeeded to power, and Iran entered the “Era of Avengers,” beginning to threaten the Strait of Hormuz; its foreign minister said the new leadership would refuse to negotiate with Trump. If the US–Iran conflict continues to escalate, it will push up oil prices and trigger concerns over imported inflation in the US, thereby delaying the Fed’s progress on interest rate cuts. On tariffs, after reciprocal tariff was overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration will seek a more solid legal basis to rebuild the tariff framework. The risk of re-inflation remained relatively high, and disputes over new tax rates and tax rebates lifted policy uncertainty to some extent. In the short term, Trump filled the tariff-rate vacuum through the 122 temporary tariff; in the medium and long-term, he may maintain a high-tariff framework via 232 and 301. In addition, the massive tax rebate pressure brought about after reciprocal tariff was ruled illegal will further increase the US fiscal burden, thereby reinforcing the logic of a weaker US dollar and providing support to precious metals overall. Supply side, NERSA announced it had formally approved Eskom’s electricity price adjustment plan for the next two years: electricity prices will be raised by 8.76% in April this year and raised again by 8.83% in April 2027. As South Africa’s PGM mining is highly dependent on electricity, rising electricity prices will continue to lift the cost center for platinum and palladium. The US Department of Commerce issued an announcement, making an affirmative preliminary anti-dumping determination on unwrought palladium imported from Russia, preliminarily determining the dumping margin for all Russian exporters/producers at 132.83%. In terms of valuation, watch changes in the US dollar index, which involve the relative strength of currencies such as the euro and the yen. Pay attention to details on the new administrator announced by the LME. Pay attention to the March 19 FOMC meeting, changes in economic data, and the impact of Wosh’s remarks on monetary policy expectations. The precious metals sector mainly benefited from the policy and political-environment tug-of-war during the US Fed’s midterm-election time window. From a medium- and long-term perspective, the foundation for a bull market in platinum and palladium remained intact. In the short term, be alert to the risk of a phased adjustment driven by a delay in expectations for an interest rate cut; pullbacks should be viewed as medium- and long-term opportunities to add long positions. Amid high fluctuations in platinum and palladium, pay attention to position sizing. As domestic and overseas markets are not continuous, the opening price of platinum and palladium often references the overseas night session; investors should monitor trading prices in international markets and be wary of opening gaps. Spot market, this week most traders holding cargo actively quoted prices. Some traders reported that supply was currently relatively ample while the market was relatively sluggish. Most downstream clients had sufficient inventory and mainly stayed on the sidelines, with only some downstream buyers making small, negotiated purchases to meet order demand. Along with continued cooling in investment demand, transactions were relatively difficult and price involution was severe. Overall, spot market trading this week was generally subdued.

This week, ferrous metals rebounded from the bottom. At the start of the week, coking coal and coke led the futures higher, mainly driven by rising crude oil prices in the overseas market, which pushed the energy and chemicals sector stronger accordingly; mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran signaled a more relaxed stance toward war, easing geopolitical tensions, while coal prices fell in tandem, weakening the cost-side logic, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs; in the latter half of the week, worsening short-term liquidity issues in BHP's iron ore port inventory triggered stronger iron ore prices in the overseas market, while the Middle East situation remained volatile, reinforcing cost support and pushing ferrous metals higher again. In the spot market, supported by futures, end-user and arbitrage purchase sentiment both improved WoW this week......

SMM News, Mar 13: This week, the recycling volume of waste lead-acid battery recyclers rebounded significantly WoW, with the recycling volume of some recyclers rising 40% from the initial stage of work resumption. However, affected by downstream consumption not yet having fully recovered and a relatively low volume of retired scrap battery, some enterprises still saw recycling volume that had not returned to pre-holiday levels. As secondary lead smelters resumed work at a relatively slow pace and demand for scrap battery had not yet surged, SMM expected the purchase prices of waste lead-acid battery to stabilize next week. Domestic secondary crude lead smelters posted a poor operating rate, with some enterprises suspending production due to environmental protection-related controls. Suppliers held firm offers, and the current mainstream ex-factory prices excluding tax stood at 15,250-15,400 yuan/mt. If containing some antimony and tin metals, ex-factory offers were at least 15,500 yuan/mt. At present, imported lead supply was ample, and suppliers had relatively weak bargaining power, giving downstream enterprises near ports a greater advantage in purchases. SMM expected domestic secondary crude lead supply to remain tight in the short term, with imports serving as the main supplement. » Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

This week (March 06, 2026–March 12, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 56.97, up 4.11 percentage points WoW from the previous week after the Spring Festival. This week, smelters in Henan maintained stable production. In Hunan, the smelter that resumed operations at the end of last week’s maintenance raised output as scheduled this week, while some smelters in the region had yet to fully recover and are expected to return to normal production next week; in Yunnan, smelters only slightly increased output this week after resuming production, and some small-scale smelters had yet to resume production.