According to SMM, as the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, EU-US trade negotiations have entered a critical sprint phase. An EU Commission spokesperson stated on Monday that progress had been made in the trade agreement talks between the EU and the US, which have now reached the "beginning of the final stage," with at least a principled agreement expected. Earlier reports from CCTV indicated that US President Trump had threatened to impose 50% tariffs on EU goods if no breakthrough was achieved in the trade talks by July 9. Currently, the US imposes 50% tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, 25% on the automotive sector, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods.

Today, HRC futures prices saw a slight increase, with the most-traded contract closing at 3102, up 0.32% for the day. Trading activity was moderate throughout the day, with HRC quotations in major cities rising by 5-10 yuan/mt compared to yesterday, and overall trading volume was average. On the news front, macro-wise, the US-Japan trade negotiations fell through, with Trump and Ishiba failing to reach an agreement. On the fundamental side, the impact from HRC maintenance this week was 67,600 mt, a decrease of 66,200 mt WoW. The supply pressure for HRC continued to increase. According to data released by SMM today for Shanghai, Lecong, and Ningbo, inventories all saw slight declines. Inventories are expected to perform moderately this week. Downstream demand has shown some resilience compared to before. Overall, cost support remains relatively stable this week. Attention should still be paid to the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on the ferrous metals series. Based solely on fundamentals, it is expected that the most-traded HRC contract will continue to fluctuate mainly within the 3000-3140 range.

[Ford Motor: Temporary Production Halt at Some Plants Due to Rare Earth Supply Deficit] Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley stated that the company is still facing a supply deficit of rare earths, leading to temporary production halts at some plants. He revealed that after China implemented a new export approval mechanism, the supply of relevant materials has slowed down significantly, and the current situation is challenging. Ford's Explorer SUV plant in Chicago halted production for a week last month due to a shortage of raw materials. Although there has been positive news from the US-China trade negotiations, Farley noted that there has been no significant improvement in the supply of rare earths so far. He also mentioned that the company has submitted multiple export license applications to China's Ministry of Commerce, which are currently being reviewed one by one. (Gelonghui) [Yahua Group: Plans to Integrate Lithium Business Equity and Transfer It to Yahua Lithium Group] Yahua Group (002497.SZ) announced that to promote the rapid development of its lithium business, it plans to use its wholly-owned subsidiary, Sichuan Yahua Lithium Technology Co., Ltd., as a platform, rename it "Yahua Lithium Group," and transfer the equity of five subsidiaries involved in the lithium business to Yahua Lithium Group without compensation. (Cailian Press) [XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen): Sales of New Energy Material Products Increased by Approximately 20.95% YoY from January to May] XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen) (688778.SH) announced that from January to May 2025, the company's new energy material products achieved sales of approximately 47,600 mt, up approximately 20.95% YoY. Among them, LCO sales were approximately 22,300 mt, up approximately 53% YoY, and sales of ternary cathode materials (including LFP and others) were 23,600 mt, up approximately 2% YoY. (Cailian Press) [US Retail Sales in May Record Largest Decline Since the Beginning of the Year] US retail sales in May recorded the largest decline since the beginning of the year, indicating that new tariffs have curbed consumer spending, particularly on automobiles. Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed that after April's data was revised to a 0.1% decline, retail sales in May, unadjusted for inflation, fell by 0.9% MoM. Retail sales excluding automobiles declined by 0.3%. (Cailian Press) [Baoneng Auto Denies Being Liquidated and Dissolved] Baoneng Auto's customer service center WeChat official account issued a statement claiming that recently, some media have distorted facts and maliciously reported that the company and its affiliates have issued dissolution and liquidation announcements, disrupting online order and infringing on the company's legitimate reputation. 1. Although some companies are shown on the National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System as "the enterprise has issued a dissolution announcement," "the enterprise has filed for liquidation group registration," or "the enterprise is making a business license invalidity declaration," among others, the company's operations remain normal, and new vehicles are expected to be launched soon. 2. Although some senior executives such as directors and supervisors have resigned, it does not affect the company's normal operations and business, and all operations are proceeding as usual without any impact. 3. Please refer to the group's official website for all business information and updates. (Cailian Press) [Xiaomi Auto: No Official Bulk Order Channels or Cash Subsidies Currently Available] Xiaomi Auto stated in its latest Q&A session with netizens on the evening of June 16 that there are currently no official bulk order channels or cash subsidies for Xiaomi Auto. The public is advised not to believe such information or engage in monetary transactions to avoid financial losses. For similar sales-related information, please carefully verify and refer only to official Xiaomi Auto channels. (Cailian Press) Related Reading: Major News in the Auto Market! May Passenger Vehicle Retail and Production Hit Record Highs—Is the Price War Sustainable? [SMM Analysis] Three Questions to Instantly Understand ESS [SMM Analysis] Official HS Codes for Black Mass Imports/Exports—How Will It Impact Domestic Lithium Battery Recycling Firms? [SMM Analysis] Automakers Cut Payment Terms to 60 Days—A Major Shift in the Auto Supply Chain [SMM Analysis] Breakthrough in Portugal’s Lithium Mine Project—Europe’s Largest Spodumene Deposit Enters Fast-Track Development Weekly Summary of the LFP Market in June [SMM Lithium Battery Market Analysis] [SMM Analysis] Behind the 60-Day Payment Promise—Suppliers’ Bittersweet Expectations Cobalt Product Prices Continue to Fall—Co3O4 Drops $7,650 in a Single Week—Will the Decline Stop Next Week? 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[6.18 Morning Meeting Minutes] Recently, the premium for saprolite ore in Indonesia's nickel ore market remained high, and the cost line of nickel ore for smelters remained firm. Additionally, the drive to switch production to high-grade nickel matte was not met. Currently, the main product of RKEF capacity is still high-grade NPI, and overall production may increase MoM from last month. Demand side, the proportion of long-term agreements for raw materials among major stainless steel mills is relatively high, and there has been a considerable trading volume of spot orders on the eve of this month. Currently, the demand for external purchases is weak.

SMM Nickel News on June 17: Macro News: (1) Tariffs - ① Trump announced that the UK and the US had signed a trade agreement, and Lutnick would decide on the exemption quotas for steel and aluminum tariffs. ② Reports stated that the EU was prepared to conditionally accept a uniform 10% tariff imposed by the US, with the EU calling the claim speculative. ③ India and the US planned to sign an interim agreement by July 9. ④ During the G7 Summit, the leaders of Japan and the US held a brief meeting, with the progress of trade negotiations remaining unclear. ⑤ Trump stated that the US-Canada agreement must include tariffs, while Canada expressed that export tariffs on Canadian goods should be eliminated. (2) On Monday, Eastern Time, US President Trump and UK Prime Minister Starmer jointly announced that they had finalized the general terms of the trade agreement reached last month. The agreement covers trade terms for steel, ethanol, automobiles, and beef. The US plans to set a quota of 100,000 units per year for British automobile imports, with a tariff rate of 10%. The UK has committed to expanding market access for US beef, ethanol, grains, and some industrial products. Spot Market: Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 118,500-121,150 yuan/mt, with an average price of 119,825 yuan/mt, a decrease of 900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,500-2,700 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/mt, a slight increase of 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums and discounts of electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is 0-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: Affected by the volatile external macro environment, nickel prices accelerated their decline. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) moved downwards after a higher opening and remained in the doldrums: it opened at 119,740 yuan/mt, up slightly by 70 yuan/mt, but quickly fell during the session, reaching a low of 118,150 yuan/mt. As of 11:30, SHFE nickel closed at 118,520 yuan/mt, down 1,150 yuan/mt or 0.96% from the previous trading day. LME nickel was also under pressure, temporarily quoted at $15,000/mt. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound between 118,000-123,000 yuan/mt. If Indonesia tightens its nickel ore policies, it may trigger a phased rebound. However, in the medium and long term, the pressure from supply surplus is difficult to resolve, coupled with a lack of incremental demand, limiting the upside room for nickel prices.

Tariffs - ① Trump announced that the UK and the US had signed a trade agreement, and Lutnick would determine the exemption quotas for steel and aluminum tariffs. ② Reports claimed that the EU was prepared to conditionally accept a uniform 10% tariff imposed by the US, with the EU stating that such claims were speculative. ③ India and the US planned to sign an interim agreement before July 9. ④ The leaders of Japan and the US held a brief meeting during the G7 Summit, with the progress of trade negotiations remaining unclear. ⑤ Trump stated that the US-Canada agreement must include tariffs, while Canada expressed that tariffs on Canadian exports should be eliminated.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,678.5/mt, touching a low of $9,664/mt shortly after the opening bell.

Strong Performance in Chinese Market Offsets Slowdown in North America Growth; SHFE Tin Prices Remain Volatile [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Global NEV sales reached 1.6 million units in May, up 24% YoY. The strong performance in the Chinese market offset the impact of the slowdown in North America growth. (Bullish ★) (2) Xin Yongfei, Director of the Policy and Economics Research Institute at the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), stated on June 16 that in recent years, China has continuously strengthened the dominant position of enterprises in innovation, optimized and improved management mechanisms, and is currently formulating policies to cultivate and expand unicorn enterprises, while continuously increasing support for the high-quality development of specialized, sophisticated, unique, and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises. (Bullish ★) (3) Tariffs - ① Trump announced that the UK and the US have signed a trade agreement, and Lutnick will determine the exemption quotas for steel and aluminum tariffs. ② Reports indicate that the EU is prepared to conditionally accept a uniform 10% tariff from the US, with the EU describing the claim as speculative. ③ India and the US plan to sign an interim agreement before July 9. ④ The leaders of Japan and the US held a brief meeting during the G7 Summit, with the progress of trade negotiations remaining unclear. ⑤ Trump stated that the US-Canada agreement must include tariffs, while Canada expressed that tariffs on Canadian exports should be eliminated.

[Ford Halts Production at Factory Due to Shortage of Rare Earth Magnets] Ford CEO Jim Farley stated that the company is still facing a supply deficit of rare earth elements. The Chicago Explorer factory halted production for a week last month due to a shortage of raw materials. Despite positive signals from China-U.S. trade negotiations, there has been no significant improvement in the supply of rare earth elements.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,566/mt, touching a low of $9,532/mt shortly after the opening bell. It then fluctuated upward throughout the session, reaching a high of $9,654.5/mt near the close, and finally closed at $9,647.5/mt, down 0.44%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest reached 291,000 lots. On Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 77,910 yuan/mt, touching a low of 77,810 yuan/mt shortly after the opening bell. It then fluctuated upward throughout the session, reaching a high of 78,480 yuan/mt near the close, before pulling back slightly to close at 78,350 yuan/mt, down 0.06%. Trading volume reached 30,000 lots, and open interest reached 192,000 lots.