SMM News, May 21： Since mid-March, China's tungsten market has ended a year-long sharp rally and entered a high-level correction phase with prices trending steadily lower. Market sentiment has shifted from exuberance to caution, with periodic supply-demand adjustments and fading market mood becoming core drivers of price movements.

[SMM Analysis] Regional price gaps stay high. Why have the high-price and low-price regions of sulfuric acid shifted?

I. Market Status: Negative TCs Enter Triple Digits, Structural Tightening in Copper Concentrate Supply-Demand As global smelter capacity continues to climb, China, as the world's largest copper smelting country, faces a continuously declining self-sufficiency rate in copper concentrates and rising external dependency. Compounded by geopolitical crises, production cuts by ex-China miners, declining mine grades, and frequent production accidents, the copper industry has undergone a dramatic shift from "tight balance" to "structural deficit." Currently, the global copper concentrate market has fallen into a state of persistently tight supply. On May 15, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) reported -$102.84/dmt, breaking through the -$100/dmt threshold for the first time in history, setting a record negative depth. The payable indicator for 20%-grade domestic trade ore was 97.5%-98.5%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM. Supply-side factors driving TCs persistently lower continue to accumulate. 1) Full production resumptions at Freeport's Grasberg mine have fallen short of expectations. According to Freeport's Q1 earnings call, the company plans to achieve full production resumptions by the end of 2027; 2) The Peruvian government signed Emergency Decree No. 003-2026 on May 11, triggering widespread market concerns over the country's energy supply and copper mine output; 3) Geopolitical disruptions—the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven sulfur prices persistently higher, pushing smelting acid prices to rise continuously. With smelting profits climbing, smelters' purchase willingness has increased, driving copper concentrate TCs persistently lower. Customs data showed that China's copper ore and concentrate imports in April 2026 were 2.352 million mt in physical content, down 19.57% YoY; cumulative imports from January to April were 9.915 million mt in physical content, down 0.8% compared to the same period last year. Since December 2020, China's copper concentrate cumulative imports had maintained positive YoY growth; this marks the first decline in over five years. II. Smelter Operating Rates Stay High Contrary to the intuition of "industry-wide losses" implied by deeply negative TCs, operating rates at China's copper smelters have not experienced a cliff-like decline. From a pure smelting perspective, operating willingness and actual profitability across different types of enterprises show significant divergence. Under the extreme environment of deeply negative TCs, the core reason China's copper smelters can maintain relatively resilient operations is that by-product revenues are becoming the key variable determining break-even. Meanwhile, China's copper cathode production declined MoM due to the maintenance peak. SMM data showed that China's copper cathode production in April fell 2.26% MoM. Cumulative copper cathode production from January to April 2026 reached 4.7067 million mt. However, according to SMM, some smelters postponed their maintenance plans or completed crude smelting maintenance ahead of schedule to capture revenue from the by-product sulphuric acid. III. Breakdown of Smelter Profit Sources (i) Sulphuric Acid: The Strongest Profit Contributor at the Current Stage Sulphuric acid is currently the most important by-product profit source for smelters. In pyrometallurgy-based copper cathode production, approximately 3-4 mt of sulphuric acid is produced as a by-product for every 1 mt of copper cathode. As of May 15, the SMM China Copper Smelting Acid Index stood at 1,665 yuan/mt, up 83.7% from the beginning of the year. Sulphuric acid prices currently stay high, meaning sulphuric acid revenue can offset a considerable portion of the revenue loss caused by negative TCs. However, this "sulphuric acid moat" is facing policy challenges. China suspended exports of ordinary industrial sulphuric acid and smelting by-product sulphuric acid starting in May for a period of 8 months. The export ban is not intended to suppress domestic sulphuric acid prices, but rather to prioritize domestic supply for agricultural phosphate fertiliser production and strategic industries such as new energy. Demand side, overall sulphuric acid demand remains tight. Although downstream sectors including phosphate fertiliser, titanium dioxide, and new energy materials saw declining operating rates due to high-priced raw materials, just-in-time procurement still exists. Meanwhile, the supply side is also constrained by concentrated smelter maintenance and high sulphur-based acid production costs, with industry-wide capacity utilization rates at low levels. Cost side, firm sulphur prices provide bottom support for sulphuric acid; supply side, concentrated maintenance limits downside room; demand side, although weak, has not yet formed a substantial enough impact to break down high prices. This means sulphuric acid continues to serve as a profit pillar for smelters. (ii) Precious Metal Recovery: "Incremental Game" Under High Copper Prices In addition, copper concentrates typically contain associated precious metals such as gold and silver, which can be recovered through anode slime processing during smelting. Copper prices are currently at historically high levels, and gold prices also fluctuate at highs, greatly enhancing the economics of precious metal recovery. According to SMM market sources, when gold and silver prices are at high levels, raw materials with impurities rich in gold and silver are assigned extremely high added value. The profit contribution of precious metal recovery to smelters is reflected in: smelters can achieve recovery utilization rates exceeding the gold and silver payable indicators through refined processing, profiting from spot smelting revenue. This portion of revenue is often a significant component of smelters' comprehensive profit structure. However, as gold and silver prices continue to rise, suppliers in the copper concentrates spot trade are simultaneously raising gold and silver payable indicators. The continuously rising precious metal payable indicators and payable benchmark pose an increasingly severe challenge to smelter profitability. IV. Future Trends: Coexistence of Industry Landscape Evolution and Technology Upgrade Requirements However, industry chain profits are irreversibly shifting toward the upstream ore side. Under the medium and long-term landscape of persistently tightening copper concentrates supply and demand, the scarcity value of the resource side is being reassessed by the market. As the copper concentrates supply-demand gap persists over the medium and long-term horizon, and smelters' bargaining power will remain under pressure over the long term. The market is widely concerned about whether TC can quickly pull back in tandem once the continuously rising sulphuric acid prices reach a turning point. Facing the long-term trend of profit squeeze at the mine end and losses in the smelting segment, the future landscape of the copper smelting industry will evolve in the following directions: Direction 1: Integrated consolidation extending upstream. Enterprises with upstream mine assets will have a significant advantage in profitability. Direction 2: Technological upgrades to achieve differentiated competition. Against the backdrop of narrowing profit margins from non-payable metals, the technological barriers of smelters will become increasingly important. Those who can more efficiently extract valuable metals from low-grade ore or complex ore will seize the initiative in the industry reshuffle. Under the extreme environment of persistently negative TCs, sulphuric acid by-product revenue and precious metal recovery are the core profit pillars currently sustaining smelter operations. The supply-demand pattern dictates that the pricing power and profit margins at the mine end will continue to outperform those at the smelting end. The copper smelting industry is transitioning from the traditional model of "earning TCs" to a new competitive landscape of "resource control + technological barriers + integrated operations."

[SMM Analysis] After Sulfur Breaks Through $1,200: How Far Is the Ceiling? — The Ultimate Game Under International Supply Disruptions, Discussing China's Sulfur Policies and International Supplementary Supply Pathways

The 4th China (Jiangxi) International Nonferrous Metals and Metallurgical Industry Exhibition, 2027 The 4th China (Jiangxi) International Nonferrous Metals and Metallurgical Industry Exhibition in 2027 Date: March 28-30, 2027 Venue: Nanchang Greenland International Expo Center "World Tungsten Capital" "World Copper Capital" "Asia's Lithium Capital" "Rare Earth Kingdom" Concurrent Events: The 4th China (Jiangxi) International Green Mining Exhibition, 2027 The 4th China (Jiangxi) International Foundry, Die Casting, Forging, Heat Treatment and Industrial Furnace Exhibition, 2027 [Jiangxi's Many Firsts] New China's first aircraft, first diesel wheeled tractor, first military sidecar motorcycle, first coastal defense missile, first artificial satellite, and today's C919 large passenger aircraft were all born here. [Industrial Advantages] The nonferrous metals industry is the largest pillar industry of Jiangxi Province. The energy consumption dual controls, dual carbon policies, and the new connotations of high-quality development have put forward new requirements for strengthening and expanding the nonferrous metals industry. Promoting the further healthy, rapid, and orderly development of the nonferrous metals industry and enhancing its core competitiveness is an inevitable requirement for transforming from a province rich in nonferrous metal resources to a province with a strong nonferrous metals industry, and is also an important lever for Jiangxi to achieve carbon peaking by 2030. Leveraging Jiangxi Province's abundant nonferrous mineral resources, Jiangxi's nonferrous metals industry has developed rapidly, with continuously expanding scale and improving standards. It has become Jiangxi's largest pillar industry and is currently a key "trillion-yuan-level" industry being cultivated in Jiangxi. It is the undisputed "ballast stone" of Jiangxi's manufacturing sector. Jiangxi has become an important nonferrous metal ore mining and production site in China. Jiangxi Province enjoys superior metallogenic geological conditions and abundant mineral resources, making it one of China's important bases for nonferrous metals, rare metals, rare earth, and uranium minerals, with a relatively high degree of mineral resource complementarity. Jiangxi's seven major categories of minerals — copper, tungsten, rare earth, uranium, tantalum-niobium, gold, and silver — are known as the "Seven Golden Flowers." According to Jiangxi Province's "2+6+N" Action Plan for High-Quality Leapfrog Industrial Development, the province's nonferrous metals industry plans to achieve a trillion-yuan level in main business revenue. To promote the healthy development of Jiangxi Province's nonferrous metals industry, facilitate foreign economic and trade cooperation, and guide Jiangxi's nonferrous metals industry to align with international standards, the Organizing Committee, after conducting multiple in-depth grassroots surveys and project analyses with government authorities and industry associations, has decided to hold the "4th China (Jiangxi) International Nonferrous Metals and Metallurgical Industry Exhibition, 2027" at the Nanchang Greenland International Expo Center on March 28-30, 2027. We look forward to seeing you there. [ Exhibition Dates ] Registration and Booth Setup: March 26-27, 2027 Opening Ceremony: March 28, 2027, 9:30 Exhibition and Trading: March 28-30, 2027 Dismantling: March 30, 2027, 14:00 [Scope of Exhibits] Non-ferrous Metal Raw Materials: copper, aluminum, magnesium, titanium, zinc, lead, manganese, zirconium, vanadium, nickel, molybdenum, silicon, antimony, tin, chromium, tungsten, tantalum, indium and other non-ferrous metal mineral product raw materials, magnetic materials, rare and rare earth materials, precious metal materials and various alloy materials; Non-ferrous Metal Products: copper products, aluminum products, titanium alloy products, magnesium alloy products, powder metallurgy products, etc.; Metallurgical Equipment and Technology: smelting furnaces and kilns, refining equipment, smelting pumps and valves, conveying equipment, heat exchange equipment, flue gas acid-making equipment, corrosion-resistant equipment, hydrometallurgy, electrolysis equipment, large power rectifier power supplies, electrolytic cells, extraction equipment, surface treatment equipment, etc.; Metal Processing Machine Tools: lathes, milling machines, sawing machines, drilling machines, grinding machines, punch presses, boring machines, machining centers, electrical discharge machines, wire cutting machines, laser processing equipment, etc.; Metal Automation Control Equipment: frequency converters, fieldbuses, industrial computers, instruments and meters, automation control, robots, electronic application systems, weighing instruments and information solutions for equipment manufacturing, etc.; Auxiliary Materials for Metal Production: chemicals, solvents, refractory materials, catalysts, gases, lubricating oils, etc.; Powder Metallurgy: raw materials, equipment, products, 3D printing, polymer powder materials, ceramic powder materials; Casting, Die Casting and Forging: castings, casting equipment, casting materials, casting molds, casting/pouring robots, new casting technology and supporting products, various heat treatment furnaces, industrial furnaces, die castings, die casting molds, die casting machines and peripheral equipment, post-processing equipment for die castings, surface treatment technology and equipment, die casting robots, new die casting technology and supporting products, forgings, flanges and rings, forging equipment and accessories, surface treatment technology and equipment, automation, forging mold manufacturing technology and equipment, forging raw materials. Geological (Mine) Exploration Technology and Equipment: geophysical exploration technology, geochemical exploration technology, aerial survey and remote sensing technology, surveying and mapping technology, geological data processing, mineral product analysis, laboratory instruments and meters. Mining Technology and Equipment: excavation equipment, drilling and rock drilling equipment, loading equipment, transportation equipment (excavators, loaders, underground mining vehicles, mining dump units), hoisting equipment, drilling, construction machinery, etc. [Media Promotion] 65 authoritative financial media outlets including Jiangxi Daily, Jiangxi Television Economic Channel, Dajiang Finance Channel, Jiangxi Net, China Net, China Daily Net, and China Finance Net; 10 major self-media platforms including Sohu, NetEase, and Toutiao; 53 industry-leading professional media outlets including China Mining Net, China Excavator Net, China Foundry Net, China Die Casting Net, China Auto Manufacturing Net, World Aluminum Net, China Nonferrous Metals Net, Nonferrous Metals Information Net, and Metalworking, along with 180 other industry-related professional media outlets; Comprehensive coverage of key words search clients through online search platforms such as Baidu Promotion and 360 Promotion; [Concurrent Events] 2027 China Foundry Technology Innovation Outstanding Contribution Award Ceremony 2027 China Metallurgical Melting and Casting Technology Seminar 2027 China Recycled Metals Industry Chain Integrated Development Forum 2027 China NEV and Auto Body Lightweighting Peak Forum 2027 China Green Mine Development Forum [Exhibition Rules] ★ Standard booth 3m×3m: China enterprises: RMB 9,800 yuan/booth; overseas enterprises: RMB 15,800 yuan/booth; ★ International brand booth (9 ㎡, deluxe decoration) RMB 12,800 yuan/booth; overseas enterprises: RMB 18,800 yuan/booth; ★ Indoor bare space (minimum 36 ㎡): China enterprises: RMB 1,000 yuan/㎡; overseas enterprises: RMB 2,000 yuan/㎡; Booth equipped with: two fluorescent tubes, one waste basket, display boards, header board, one table and two chairs, air conditioning, lighting, security, and cleaning services. Note: Bare space does not include any exhibition facilities. Special decoration management fees and hydropower fees charged by the venue shall be borne by the exhibitors and their special decoration contractors. [Organizing Committee Secretariat] Contact: Song Jia 132-1700-0270 (same on WeChat) Official website: http://www.jxysjs.net

I. Resource Endowment: World's Second-Largest Reserves and Development Potential As a core holder of global rare earth resources, Brazil boasts proven reserves of 21-25 million tonnes, accounting for 23% of the global total—second only to China. This positions Brazil with the potential to reshape the global rare earth supply landscape. Its deposits are primarily ion-adsorption types, widely distributed across states like Minas Gerais and Goiás. Representative projects include: Colossus Mine : With reserves of 493 million tonnes and an average grade of 0.251%, it is currently Brazil's largest disclosed ion-type rare earth project. Caldeira Rare Earth Project : Holding 1.5 billion tonnes at a 0.2413% grade, it offers significant scale and commercial viability. Tiros Titanium Rare Earth Project : Though smaller in reserve size (5.5 million tonnes), it stands out with a high average grade of 0.400%, making it one of the highest-grade projects in the country. Notably, Brazilian rare earths often coexist with niobium, tantalum, and titanium. This nature adds complexity to processing but also opens avenues for comprehensive value recovery. II. Industry Status: Shifting from "Raw Material Export" to "Domestic Processing" Historically, Brazil's rare earth sector has been characterized by a "high reserves, low output" paradox. In 2024, national production was a mere 20 tonnes, a stark contrast to the global annual output of nearly 400,000 tonnes. The core bottleneck has been the lack of mid- and downstream capabilities in separation and refining. However, this is rapidly changing due to strategic national adjustments. (I) Policy Drivers: Mandating Domestic Processing for a Closed-Loop Chain The Brazilian government has designated rare earths as "strategic minerals." Under the National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals (PNMCE, Bill PL 4.443/2025), at least 80% of critical strategic minerals must be processed domestically, effectively banning raw ore exports. This policy aims to break the passive cycle of "mining-exporting raw materials-importing high-value products" and drive the construction of a full domestic value chain "from mine to magnet." (II) Project Implementation: From Lab to Industrialization In 2026, Brazil's rare earth development took a substantive leap: MagBras Initiative : Led by CIT SENAI in Minas Gerais and coordinated by FIESC in Santa Catarina, this project united 28 companies and research bodies to deliver the first 20kg of rare earth carbonate. This marked Brazil's first autonomous, full-process production from mining to chemical compound. LabFabITr Facility : Located in Lagoa Santa, Minas Gerais, this is the Southern Hemisphere's first lab-factory dedicated to rare earth magnet and alloy R&D, providing crucial technical support for local permanent magnet manufacturing. III. Capital and Geopolitics: The $2.17 Billion Investment Gamble Between 2025 and 2029, Brazil's rare earth sector is poised for $2.17 billion in investment—a 49% surge compared to the 2024-2028 forecast. This makes it the fastest-growing segment in Brazil's mining investment portfolio. This capital influx is underpinned by the geopolitical logic of global supply chain restructuring: (I) External Demand: A "Diversified Option" Amidst US-China Tensions As competition between the US and China intensifies, Brazil's strategic value as a "non-Chinese" supplier has skyrocketed. Its policy of "global openness" avoids picking sides while leveraging domestic processing mandates to attract technology transfer—requiring foreign investors to build local processing capabilities rather than just extracting ore. (II) Internal Drive: From "Resource Nationalism" to "Technological Autonomy" Brazil's strategy transcends simple resource protection; it is an upgrade centered on "technological autonomy." For instance, MagBras targets permanent magnet manufacturing—a sector currently monopolized by China, Japan, and Germany. Success would position Brazil among the few nations mastering the "ore-to-magnet" value chain, directly integrating into the core supply chains of EVs, wind energy, and industrial robotics. IV. Challenges and Outlook: Technology, Cost, and Global Competition Despite the upside, three core challenges remain: (I) Technological Barriers Rare earth separation and magnet manufacturing are high-threshold sectors. Brazil currently relies on international partnerships (e.g., European technical support for LabFabITr) to bridge this gap. (II) Cost Pressures Brazil's low-grade ion-adsorption ores entail higher beneficiation costs compared to some high-grade Chinese deposits. Additionally, the capital and operational expenditures for domestic processing could impact international price competitiveness. (III) Global Competition With Australia, the US, and various African nations also accelerating their rare earth developments, Brazil must carve out differentiated advantages in technology, cost efficiency, and policy stability to secure its market share. V. Conclusion: Leaping from "Resource Holder" to "Supply Chain Player" Brazil's rare earth transition represents a strategic leap from a "resource exporter" to a "technology-driven industrial player." While its 21 million tonnes of reserves provide the foundation, the true value lies in its policy-driven, capital-intensive push to build a complete industrial chain. If initiatives like MagBras achieve commercial success, Brazil is on track to become the "third pole" in the global rare earth supply chain by 2030, reshaping trade dynamics and offering a new paradigm for resource-based economies worldwide.

[SMM Vanadium Flash News] In April, Phase I of Jiaozuo Scandium-Vanadium New Materials Industrial Park was officially put into operation, with a total investment of 1.08 billion yuan. Relying on the by-product resources of titanium dioxide, the project has an annual production capacity of 2,500 tons of high-purity vanadium pentoxide + 20,000 cubic meters of vanadium electrolyte, directly supporting long-term energy storage orders. High-purity vanadium is entering the high-end alloy and vanadium battery markets, while the electrolyte has established the industrial chain of "titanium dioxide - vanadium electrolyte - energy storage", significantly increasing the added value of by-products..

[SMM Titanium Flash News] On April 24, Hongwang Group officially announced an investment of approximately 20.46 billion yuan in Tanzania, leasing 500 hectares of land for a 33-year term to build an overseas vanadium-titanium magnetite raw material base. The project will integrate local minerals and energy, construct a "mining and processing integrated" hub, and address the pain point of high external dependence on domestic titanium ore. Domestically, titanium material projects in Loudi, Hunan, and Yangjiang, Guangdong, will be simultaneously promoted to form a two-way layout of overseas raw materials + domestic deep processing, ensuring the security of the high-end titanium material supply chain and accelerating participation in global titanium industry competition.

SMM Titanium Dioxide Output TiO₂ production fell 4.86% month-on-month in April 2026, with cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.08%. Producer inventories dropped 9.87% month-on-month. The SMM China TiO₂ Index rose 6.94% from early April, driven by high sulfuric acid raw material costs and low inventory levels, fueling strong upward momentum from producers. SMM Sponge Titanium Output Sponge titanium production rose 3.49% month-on-month in April 2026, with cumulative year-on-year growth of 11.3%. Prices edged up to RMB 48,000-50,000/t this month, but remain under pressure from industry inventories and weak buying momentum in the downstream titanium materials market. The market is expected to continue narrow range-bound trading.

[SMM Titanium Express] Sponge titanium production rose 3.49% month-on-month in April 2026, with cumulative year-on-year growth of 11.3%. Prices edged up to RMB 48,000-50,000/t this month, but remain under pressure from industry inventories and weak buying momentum in the downstream titanium materials market. The market is expected to continue narrow range-bound trading.