[SMM Analysis: “Tight Resource Balance” Meets “Computing Power Revaluation”—2026 H1 Tin Price Deep Review and H2 Outlook] In 2026 H1, tin prices exhibited a wide-ranging tug-of-war pattern of “reaching record highs—pulling back to consolidate—rallying again—consolidating at highs.” The most-traded LME tin contract surged from about $42,000/mt at the beginning of the year to a record high of $59,000/mt, pulled back to $40,500 in March, rallied again to around $58,000 from April to May, and fell below $50,000 at end-June; the most-traded SHFE tin contract surged from 330,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the year to a record high of 470,000 yuan/mt, dipped to 322,600 yuan/mt in March, touched 451,000 yuan/mt again in early June, and pulled back below 400,000 yuan/mt at month-end.

In June, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up, driving the US dollar index up more than 2% for the month. This coincided with the electronics industry entering the traditional off-season and weak end-use demand, while doubts lingered over the sustainability of the AI sector rally. Profit-taking on earlier high-price positions intensified, and these combined factors dragged tin prices lower. SHFE tin fell 7.08% in June, while LME tin dropped 6.68% over the same period. Since the start of July, comments from Warsh at the Sintra Forum that "inflation expectations have declined over the past four weeks, and inflation risks have also diminished," together with US June non-farm payrolls data missing expectations, have cooled market expectations for US Fed rate hikes. At the same time, tech stocks rebounded. These multiple positive drivers pushed tin prices to drift higher in early July. As of around 16:51 on July 6, LME tin was up 1.26% to $52,970/mt, with its month-to-date July gain at 2.56%; SHFE tin was up 3.09% to 410,360 yuan/mt, with a 5.4% month-to-date rise. Spot Market Tin prices fell over 8% in June; spot prices rose for consecutive days in July but wait-and-see sentiment prevails Spot tin prices: SMM #1 tin spot price rose for four consecutive days, with the July 6 quote at 406,900-415,300 yuan/mt and the average price at 411,100 yuan/mt, up 2.96% from the previous trading day. As tin prices rebounded, wait-and-see sentiment intensified in the spot market. Only some rigid demand purchases were made, and overall market trading activity was subdued. Looking at the monthly trend, the average spot price of SMM #1 tin stood at 387,800 yuan/mt on June 30, compared with 425,000 yuan/mt on May 29—a drop of 37,200 yuan/mt, or 8.75%, in just over a month. Notably, as tin prices fell to around 380,000 yuan/mt, downstream restocking demand saw a phase of release. Fundamentals ►Production: Refined tin production edged up MoM in June According to SMM data based on market communication, China's refined tin production edged slightly higher MoM in June 2026, with overall output remaining relatively stable. The slight rise in June refined tin production was driven by two main factors. Supply side, raw material availability showed marginal improvement: earlier overseas tin ore import increases became more evident, and while production resumptions at Myanmar mines were slow, ore continued to flow out, somewhat easing tightness in domestic raw materials. On the other hand, rising arrivals of imported ore at ports drove smelting TCs higher, bringing a phase of relief to the prolonged raw material tightness and creating conditions for smelters to raise operating rates and boost output. However, subsequent production expansion faces multiple constraints: May to July is the traditional rainy season in Myanmar, which limits open-pit mining operations and ore transportation, leading to expectations of a MoM pullback in short-term imported ore arrivals. Overall, the refined tin supply-side is marginally loose at the current stage, but downstream industries are entering the traditional consumption off-season. With both supply and demand weakening, output is unlikely to see a significant surge in the short term. ► Imports: Tin ore imports rose both YoY and MoM in May, with imports from Myanmar surging 384.5% YoY. China's tin ore imports in May were 16,800 mt (equivalent to about 6,408 mt in metal content), up 7.07% MoM and 25.61% YoY, an increase of 1,221 mt in metal content from April (which was equivalent to about 5,187 mt in metal content). Cumulative imports from January to May were 85,900 mt, up 71.41% YoY. China's tin ingot imports in May were 1,838 mt, down 34.4% MoM and 11.46% YoY, with cumulative imports from January to April at 11,196 mt, up 17.75% YoY. Trade data for the tin industry chain from 2025 to May 2026 show the global tin market's supply-demand pattern is undergoing significant structural adjustment, characterized by accelerating supply recovery from overseas mines, easing domestic raw material supply pressure, and downstream smelting increasing supply due to lower raw material costs, while weak overseas demand hinders exports. On the raw material supply side, cumulative tin ore imports from January to May 2026 reached 85,998 mt, surging 71.41% YoY, with May imports alone at 16,831 mt, up 7.07% MoM and soaring 25.61% YoY. This strong rebound was mainly driven by the recovery of Myanmar ore, with tin ore imports from Myanmar reaching 6,634 mt in May, surging 384.5% YoY, and cumulative YoY growth from January to May soaring to 203.49%; in contrast, while tin ore imports from countries outside Myanmar maintained a cumulative positive growth of 34.72%, May single-month volumes still fell 15.23% YoY, indicating a relatively moderate supply recovery from non-Myanmar sources. ► Inventories: SMM weekly tin ingot social inventory across three regions declined for four consecutive weeks. China tin ingot social inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of July 4, 2026, total tin ingot social inventory across three regions in China stood at 7,299 mt, down sharply by 1,374 mt from 8,673 mt the previous week (June 26), a decline of 15.84% WoW. Looking at the trend, since hitting a near-term peak of 13,604 mt in early June, China's tin ingot social inventory has declined for four consecutive weeks, with cumulative destocking over the past month reaching as high as 46.4%. The destocking slope exhibited a "gradual then steep" pattern, and the current inventory level has pulled back to a year-to-date low, signaling marked marginal improvement in the market supply-demand pattern. By region, inventory in Shanghai dropped to 3,750 mt, a weekly decline of 996 mt, contributing 72.5% of the total weekly destocking and making it the dominant force in this round of destocking, reflecting accelerated trade flows in east China and a substantial rebound in downstream purchase willingness. Inventory in Guangdong also declined to 3,449 mt, down 378 mt WoW, accounting for 27.5% of total destocking, confirming that downstream rigid demand in south China, represented by solder enterprises, remained resilient and the pace of stockpiling accelerated. Analyzing the underlying logic, on the one hand, it was driven by restocking after price pullbacks. The dampening effect of previously high tin prices on downstream purchases gradually faded as prices returned to rational levels recently, and pent-up rigid orders were released in a concentrated manner, accelerating the digestion of visible inventory. LME tin inventory: On June 30, LME tin inventory data stood at 8,575 mt, compared to 8,850 mt on May 29, indicating that LME tin inventory declined in June. SMM Outlook On the macro front, a number of macro events in and outside China will continue to disturb tin price movements in July. Outside China, key focus will be on US CPI and PCE inflation data, as well as the US Fed's interest rate meeting at month-end. Earlier, Walsh said that inflation risks have receded, and coupled with the June non-farm payrolls data falling short of expectations, market bets on rate hikes have temporarily cooled. If subsequent inflation data rebounds again and the Fed releases a hawkish tone, a stronger US dollar will suppress tin price trends; conversely, if easing expectations continue, they will provide valuation support for tin prices. At the domestic level, the central bank increased liquidity injections, ultra-long-term special government bonds were steadily implemented, and stimulus policies related to technological transformation of high-end manufacturing and equipment renewal gradually took effect, which are positive for the consumption of tin downstream industries such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy in the medium and long term. However, the weak pattern of the electronics industry during the off-season is hard to reverse quickly in the short term, and the pace of policy dividend releases regarding domestic demand will directly determine the intensity of downstream spot restocking. Fundamentals: On the supply side, the overall tight supply situation of tin ore remained unchanged, but marginal increase signals increased. Smelters maintained stable production with no large-scale production cuts for the time being. On the demand side, entering the traditional consumption off-season, downstream solder enterprises were generally cautious in procurement, and the market relied solely on rigid demand purchases, with high prices significantly dampening purchase willingness. On the inventory side, tin inventories both in and outside China maintained a destocking trend, providing inventory support for tin prices. In summary, changes in macro expectations combined with the performance of the technology sector will affect the fluctuation range of tin prices. Tight ore supply and low overall inventory formed strong fundamental bottom support, acting as a floor for tin prices. However, the sluggish demand during the current off-season will continue to drag on futures, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Looking ahead, it is crucial to closely track US Fed policy direction, the sentiment of the semiconductor industry chain, and continuously monitor the pace of destocking in and outside China. Only when there is a substantial recovery in demand can it provide new upward driving force for tin prices. Recommended reading:

[Silicon Metal Market Stalemate, Prices Consolidate at Lows]: On the supply side, silicon metal production in June stood at 358,400 mt, up 8% MoM. In July, production ramp-up in Sichuan and Yunnan will become the main driver of supply growth, with July production expected to increase 9% MoM. The fundamental logic of both supply and demand growth and relatively heavy supply pressure remains unchanged. With no news disturbances from policy or macro liquidity, and in the absence of unexpected events, silicon metal prices continue to consolidate at lows.

[SMM Lithium Battery Anode Raw Material Market Weekly Review: Mild Two-Way Improvement in Supply and Demand, Anode Raw Material Coke Market Maintains Stable Operation Pattern] June 25 news: This week, China's anode raw material coke market was dominated by stable price operation. On the demand side, downstream anode material producers' purchasing strategies tended to be conservative.

This week, the MHP market was tight overall, with nickel and cobalt coefficients fluctuating at highs. On the supply side, sulfur supply shortages caused some producers to cut production, MHP supply declined, and transaction coefficients edged up slightly. On the demand side, downstream nickel salt prices weakened, the risk of losses persisted, and nickel salt smelters were relatively less accepting of high-priced MHP. However, with some recovery in downstream ternary demand, some producers had rigid purchase needs, supporting the strength of MHP nickel coefficients. Driven by tight supply-demand expectations, the market is expected to hold up well in the short term. The high-grade nickel matte market was also in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Currently, high-grade nickel matte has a clear economic advantage over MHP. However, on the supply side, mainstream suppliers have completed long-term order signing, leaving limited available spot supply. On the demand side, actual consumption capacity was insufficient due to limitations in downstream production line compatibility. Overall, purchase sentiment was weak, trading activity was low, and coefficients remained stable. The international sulfur market saw a shift in supply landscape, with geopolitical premiums gradually being cleared. The US and Iran signed and enacted a ceasefire memorandum on June 17, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be gradually unblocked, the US has started lifting the sea blockade, and Iran will complete mine clearance within 30 days. However, many shipping enterprises have temporarily suspended the resumption of routes, making navigation recovery a gradual process. Coupled with Turkey's export ban extended to end-September and Russia's ban extended to June 30, short-term supply disruptions persist. As the strait unblocking progresses, sulfur prices are expected to gradually come under pressure and swing wildly at highs in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to mine clearance progress, the pace of shipping recovery, and the direction of the final agreement within 60 days. On the nickel price front, as the US-Iran reconciliation gradually progressed this week, market rate hike expectations faded, and non-ferrous metals generally rebounded. Against the backdrop of stable MHP payables and high-grade nickel matte coefficients, the absolute prices of MHP and high-grade nickel matte rebounded as nickel prices rose. Additionally, MHP cobalt prices and refined cobalt prices also rebounded. Overall, the intermediate product market is expected to hold up well in the short term. Cost side, the MHP raw material market remained tight. Under the combined influence of production cuts of intermediates caused by sulfur shortage and just-in-time procurement of ternary materials downstream, MHP payables fluctuated at highs this week. Nickel prices, the US-Iran situation released signals of reconciliation, market rate-hike expectations subsided somewhat, and the previously oversold nickel prices rebounded this week. Overall for the week, nickel prices rebounded, MHP payables held steady, and the spot cost of nickel salt production rose slightly WoW.

From June 3 to June 5, Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , in a strategic partnership with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and dedicated sub-forums, attracting 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, featuring more than 120+ speakers sharing insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG development, etc. Conference Background of Tin Forum In 2022, both LME and SHFE tin annual prices closed lower, and the market at the time may not have anticipated that this would serve as the prelude to a three-year upward cycle. From 2023 to 2025, tin prices recorded three consecutive years of gains, with both LME and SHFE tin surging over 30% in 2025. Entering 2026, the upward trend has continued, with tin prices hitting a new record high and becoming one of the most closely watched metals in the industrial metals market. However, this rally has not been smooth. In the past two years, tin prices have fluctuated significantly within an upward channel, driven by deep adjustments in global supply-demand patterns, especially multiple disruptions on the supply side. On the demand side, emerging sectors such as AI servers, PV welding strips, and NEVs have rapidly risen, coupled with a recovery in consumer electronics, continuously highlighting tin's strategic value in high-end manufacturing and steadily expanding rigid demand. On the supply side, global tin resources are highly concentrated, production resumptions in Myanmar have fallen short of expectations, some ex-China mining areas have been disrupted by geopolitical factors, and Indonesia—a key link in global refined tin supply—has seen its industrial policy adjustments become a critical variable affecting market expectations. Reviewing Indonesia's tin industry policy, the past two years have shown a clear trajectory of "standardizing and regulating, tightening exports, and promoting downstream development." In 2024, the Mining Work Plan (RKAB) was adjusted from an annual to a three-year basis, and exports experienced temporary fluctuations during the policy transition. In 2025, Indonesia further strengthened governance over illegal mining, shutting down some illegal tin mines, cracking down on smuggling activities, and adjusting tin ore royalty fees, leading to higher production costs. Entering 2026, the policy direction has become clearer, with studies on restricting refined tin exports, lowering export quotas, and plans to raise tin royalty tax rates, promoting the transition from resource exports to high value-added processing. These adjustments are reshaping the rhythm and trade patterns of the global tin supply chain. As an important platform connecting the global tin industry chain with the Indonesian resource market, the Tin Forum focuses on the latest developments in Indonesia's tin policies, the evolution of the global tin supply-demand pattern, price trend analysis, and industrial cooperation opportunities. It brings together government officials, industry experts, miners, smelters, and downstream end-user representatives to jointly explore new opportunities in the global supply chain amid the transformation of Indonesia's tin industry. Click to view photo gallery of tin forum Tin Forum June 4 Visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is pleased to announce that an SMM-led delegation, headed by SMM Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager Jenny Wu and made up of delegates from the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2026 , conducted a formal visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) on June 4. The event was organized by SMM and co-organized by Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Economic Council, Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI), and MMR, with the Jakarta Futures Exchange as the strategic partner. This visit underscores SMM’s commitment to fostering long-term, win-win partnerships between Indonesia’s top mineral exporters and global metals industry stakeholders. Supply and Demand Exchange Session June 5 Opening Remarks Speaker: Adam Fan, Chairman of SMM Keynote Speech Keynote Speech: DRC Tin Ore: Current Supply Status and Market Dynamics Insights Speaker: Raj Chug, General Manager, Mining Mineral Resources Keynote Speech: African Tin Ore: Resource Potential and Supply Chain Breakthrough Paths Amid Supply Shortages Speaker: Egyul Mamoko， Metallurgist Expert， CTCPM (Cellule Technique de Coordination et de Planification Minière) [Panel Discussion] Global Tin Mine Supply Seminar: Current Status, Opportunities, and Future Challenges Moderator: Vicky Qiao, Senior Analyst at SMM Panelists: Egyul Mamoko, Metallurgist Expert, CTCPM (Cellule Technique de Coordination et de Planification Minière) Erwin Setyawan, Head of Trading & Operation, Jakarta Futures Exchange Joseph G. Miller Esq, Strategic & Defense Metals Specialist/Director, Mission Critical Metals, Mission Critical Metals Keynote Speech: The Development Trend of the Tin Market in China Speaker: Zheyu Zhang, Tin Market Analyst, Marketing Department, Yuntin (Honghe) Investment Development Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Opportunities and Challenges for Smelters Under Indonesia's New Tin Industry Policies Speaker: Yazid Kanca Surya, Chief Executive Officer, Jakarta Futures Exchange Fragmented Global Supply Chain System Reshaping of the Geopolitical Landscape : Trade disputes and geopolitical tensions are profoundly altering traditional commodity trade patterns. Industrial Security :Countries are increasingly prioritizing long-term stable supply of strategic resources over short-term price advantages. Focus on Critical Minerals : Tin’s industry role is no longer isolated; it has become a core issue in the global energy transition and high-end manufacturing sectors. Evolution of the Tin Market The industry is entering a new phase where credibility is as important as capacity. Promoting Downstream Industrialisation (Hilirisasi) •Historical Development Background: Indonesia has long been dominated by the supply of primary processed products, with most downstream value addition achieved outside China. • Strategic Goals : Indonesia is adjusting export policies, trade management, and supply chain oversight to retain high-value-added industries within the country. Strengthening regulation and cracking down on illegal mining are not punitive measures, but rather efforts to build a transparent system to help the local area vigorously promote the development of downstream industries. Smelters Under Pressure Upstream uncertainties: Illegal mining disrupts the market, raw material supply fluctuates, and price trends are difficult to predict. Downstream market requirements: Strict compliance standards, full transparency in raw material traceability, and continuously rising screening thresholds for buyers. Market Volatility Intensifies The uncertainty in the current operating environment has increased significantly. Enterprises must not only cope with production risks, but also simultaneously address the multiple pressures arising from external shocks and rising operating costs. Investment Barriers in Deep Processing Keynote Speech: Deepening Downstream Diversification, Joining Hands to Foster Long-term Prosperity Guest Speaker: HARRY BUDI SIDHARTA, S.T, MM., Vice President Director, PT Timah (Persero) Tbk Keynote Speech: Challenges and Opportunities for China's Tin Industry amid Global Tin Ore Supply Changes Guest Speaker: Huanbo Qin, Market Analyst, International Tin Association China Keynote Speech: Analysis of Global Tin Price Trends and Future Outlook Speaker: Vicky Qiao, Senior Analyst, Shanghai Metals Market Price Trend Overview Price Review: Amid macroeconomic and geopolitical disruptions, market fundamentals have provided structural support Key Points: Tight mine-side supply has established a long-term price floor, while macro liquidity has primarily driven price fluctuations. Tin Resources and Mine Supply Landscape Supply elasticity is limited, accompanied by a high geographic concentration of reserves; the global static mine life is less than 15 years. Rising mine production alongside shrinking global resources has accelerated reserve depletion in producing countries. DRC: Output from major mines remained stable; however, M23 militant activities increased market uncertainty. ►Risks 1. The M23 armed conflict has spread to the Masisi region east of the Bisie mine and the Goma border crossing between the DRC and Rwanda, directly disrupting the original tin ore transportation route via Goma to Dar es Salaam. 2. To mitigate conflict risks, security at the Bisie mine has been reinforced, and freight routes have been adjusted northward to reroute through Uganda, ultimately destined for the port of Mombasa in Kenya. Nevertheless, market concerns persist that further spread of the M23 conflict could disrupt normal production operations at the mine. 3. The DRC recently experienced an Ebola outbreak, with confirmed cases concentrated in Beni and Bunia, areas adjacent to Uganda. Strict disease prevention measures have been implemented at both the mine and along transportation links; Bisie's mining and freight activities have yet to be affected by the pandemic impact. However, the market remains apprehensive about the local mineral supply outlook. Myanmar's Man Maw Tin Mine: Production Resumptions Hindered • 90% of Myanmar's tin ore production is concentrated in Wa State. To ensure rational resource extraction and stable regional development, Wa State suspended all tin ore mining starting in 2023, with new mining permits only reissued in July 2025. Due to the local rainy climate, the mine pits accumulated significant water during the suspension, making drainage the primary challenge upon work resumption. As the water accumulation issue affected multiple pits, the cost-sharing arrangements for drainage among mining enterprises were long delayed and never finalized. The resulting obstruction of drainage work has directly constrained the mine's production resumption progress. •In February 2026, the local government issued detailed rules clarifying the cost-sharing standards for drainage, and the Wa State tin mine immediately began resuming production. •Currently, strict approval and control of civilian explosives in Myanmar, compounded by disruptions to mining and logistics caused by the rainy season, have led to progress in local production resumptions falling short of expectations. Full resumption is expected only by 2027. The number of new tin mine projects globally is scarce, with generally low ore grades and lengthy development-to-production cycles. New projects generally have low ore grades, posing upside risks to future mining costs and increasing operational difficulty. Only three new projects have grades above 1%. Lower ore grades mean that more raw ore must be processed to produce the same amount of tin metal. The future supply landscape will be markedly differentiated, with total planned and under-construction projects reaching 173.5 kt in capacity, and just four major projects accounting for over 67%. Global supply will be highly dependent on these core mine projects, while five new projects in Australia can only bring a small incremental increase with limited impact. Global Tin Ingot Supply The high concentration of primary tin smelting capacity limits the global supply elasticity of tin ingots. Keynote Speech: Achieving the Trading and Risk Hedging of Pure Tin Ingots Through the Standardized Trading Mechanism of the Futures Market – Commodity Futures Trading Regulatory Authority Guest Speaker: Ima Siti Fatimah, Head of the Commodity Futures Trading Development Bureau, Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia Keynote Speech: Under the Drive of Geopolitical Policies: Global Strategic Metal Tin Trade Restructuring, Breakthroughs in North American Secondary Production, and New Logic in Solder Consumption Guest Speaker: Joseph G. Miller Esq, Strategic & Defense Metals Specialist/Director, Mission Critical Metals, Mission Critical Metals ► Securing Supply: US Plan to Reshore Critical Metal (Tin) Capacity • Lessons drawn from COVID-19 and World War II. • No primary tin capacity currently exists in North America: no tin ore mining operations, no tin ore smelting capacity. • The US secondary tin market is regionally fragmented. • The US government supports the Nathan Trotter primary/secondary tin smelter. • The Trump administration has made multiple investments in the critical metals sector. • Security situation in the DRC and surrounding regions. ► Data Center Tin Consumption Estimates How much tin is consumed per gigawatt of installed data center capacity? • Servers, GPUs, network systems: 500–1,500 mt. • Power systems, switchgear: 100–400 mt. • Control devices, communication equipment, cooling systems: 50–200 mt. • Tin usage per gigawatt of installed AI data center capacity is approximately 1,200–1,500 mt. Additionally, the speaker noted: the PV industry's annual tin consumption is about 25,000 mt, with average annual new installations of around 30 GW, corresponding to tin demand of 36,000–45,000 mt. Keynote Speech: Due Diligence in the Indonesian Tin Sector: A Tradition of Early Adoption and Pathways for ESG Leadership Guest Speaker: Josue Ruiz, Director of Facility Engagement, Responsible Minerals Initiative Keynote Speech: Malaysian Tin Mine: Market Breakthrough and Global Expansion from the Perspective of Critical Minerals Guest Speaker: DATO DEREK TENG, Director of the SETARA JELITA SDN BHD, President of the MALAYSIA MARITIME SILK ROUTE RESEARCH SOCIETY Critical Minerals in the New Era Strategic Positioning and Core Applications of Tin National Strategic Cornerstone: Listed in the “Critical Minerals List” by many countries, it holds an irreplaceable core position in securing national resource security and maintaining the resilience of global supply chains. Modern Industrial Lifeline: The core raw material for electronic solder manufacturing, it supports semiconductor packaging, PCB circuit boards, and other electronic information industries, serving as the “industrial monosodium glutamate” of modern manufacturing. Frontier Technology Engine: Empowering emerging technologies such as 5G communications, NEV batteries, PV modules, and AI chips, it drives the dual transformation of the digital economy and green transition. Tin: The “Industrial MSG” Driving High-Tech Industries ► A Core Member of the Global Critical Minerals System U.S. Official Designation: According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “2025 Critical Minerals List,” tin is formally listed as a critical mineral, regarded as a strategic resource vital to national economic development and national security. Global Industry Consensus: In the mineral assessment systems of the EU and other developed economies, tin also occupies a core position. It is an indispensable “emerging cornerstone mineral” supporting the global digital economic transformation and the upgrade of the new energy industry. The global tin application structure in 2025 is very clear: 53% is used in semiconductors and high-end electronic solder, 16% in fine tin chemical new materials, 11% in food-grade tinplate and tin cans, and 8% directly in the PV green new energy industry. Tin Applications in High-Growth Sectors Currently, three major high-growth tracks worldwide are continuously driving rigid incremental demand for tin. First, AI computing power and hyperscale data centers: The tin consumption per unit of high-end AI servers is 3–13 times that of ordinary servers. With the explosive growth of global AI computing power demand, the demand for high-end solder will continue to grow rapidly. Second, new energy vehicles: Tin consumption per vehicle is about three times that of internal combustion engine vehicles, and for intelligent car models, it can reach up to 1.5 kg per vehicle. Third, advanced packaging: The solder ball usage of advanced packaging technologies such as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is more than five times that of traditional DRAM. Malaysia at a Crossroads The Decline of a Former Empire and Opportunities for Transformation ► Glorious History · Tin Empire: In the 1960s, Malaysia was the world's veritable "Tin Empire." Its tin production once accounted for one-third of the global total, and revenue from tin exports represented as much as 60% of the country's total export revenue, dominating the global tin trade landscape. ► Current Situation · Dual Challenges: However, after industrial iteration, its share of global production was only 0.2% in 2023, with annual output falling to 6,100 mt, marking a sharp decline. Malaysia still holds considerable secondary resource reserves of 780,000 tonnes, with native ore depleted but tailings holding significant potential. ► Future · Reshaping Value Strategic Empowerment: Leverage the new strategic identity of “critical minerals” to enhance discourse power and bargaining power in the international supply chain. Industrial Leap: Shift away from dependence on primary tin ingot exports and move towards high value-added deep processing manufacturing and the establishment of a circular economy system. Core Challenges Faced Currently, Malaysia’s tin industry faces four core structural challenges. Market Breakthrough: Reshaping Value Embrace the New Identity and Extend into Downstream High Value-Added Sectors Build a Regional Circular Economy Center Core Strategy: Fully leverage Malaysia’s industrial advantage as a global electronics manufacturing center, turning the large amount of tin-containing scrap generated during production—including solder dross, waste circuit boards, etc.—into valuable recycled tin resources, and establish an “urban mining” resource recycling system. Keynote Speech: From Waste to Value: How Smelters and Recycling Enterprises Uncover Hidden Treasures in Tin Ore By-Products Guest Speaker: Justin Wang, Director of Marketing and Technology, Stannum Solutions(Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

Today, the most-traded HRC contract fluctuated downward, closing at 3,380, up 0.6% from the previous trading day. Spot sheets & plates rose by 10-20 yuan/mt from the previous session. Supply side, this week’s impact from hot-rolling maintenance was 74,100 mt, down 156,400 mt WoW. Next week’s impact from hot-rolling maintenance is estimated at 23,100 mt, down 51,000 mt WoW from this week, and supply pressure continued its uptrend this month. Demand side, futures rebounded in late trading, and market transactions improved somewhat from the prior session, mostly at low prices, with some buying based on spot-futures price spreads at lows. Cost side, late in the session today, market rumors said that China Mineral Resources had informally instructed to suspend the issuance of letters of credit for blended super special fines, causing iron ore futures to rise in response. However, subsequent new rumors refuted this, leading to volatile swings in the futures market. For coking coal and coke, the spot market was tight in supply and demand, and in the short term prices may be recovering from earlier declines. Overall, HRC regional inventory data released today showed that except for South China, other regions mostly maintained destocking, and the supply-demand imbalance remained not significant. The market is likely to continue fluctuating in the short term, with attention on disturbances from the raw material side.

In May 2026, the European Union adopted a series of restrictive measures against China in the new energy sector, several of which are directly related to the photovoltaic and energy storage supply chains. In this situation, how will the European's solar market goes...?

SMM data shows that overseas stainless steel prices saw their first correction after six months of gains during May 18–22. Indonesia’s leading mills cut FOB 300 series stainless steel by USD30/mt, then kept prices stable through out the week. Policy-driven supply concerns from Indonesia and IWIP NPI cuts pushed LME nickel above USD 18,800/mt. The market focus shifted from price weakness to cost support, while demand remained resistant to high prices.

SMM May 21 News: Spot prices of tin, tantalum, and Pr-Nd oxide rose, and high molybdenum prices helped drive the minor metal sector higher. As of 10:22 on May 21, the minor metal sector was up 2.41%. In terms of individual stocks: Eastern Tantalum and China Tungsten High-Tech gained over 6%, while Haotong Technology, Tin Industry Co., Eastern Zirconium, Jinduicheng Molybdenum, and Huaxi Nonferrous led the gains. This rally was directly driven by improving spot market fundamentals, compounded by a weakening US dollar, strengthening strategic resource attributes, and emerging demand (AI, semiconductors, PV), which continued to fuel market expectations of a tight supply-demand balance in minor metals. Some market capital showed increased willingness to flow in, driving a rebound in the minor metal sector. Spot Market Tantalum The quoted price of tantalum ingot (Ta≥99.95%) on May 20 was 6,600-6,700 yuan/kg, with an average price of 6,650 yuan/kg, up 1.53% from the previous trading day. Recently, the tantalum market reached a turning point, with tantalum prices successfully hitting bottom, stabilizing, and initiating a rebound, with the industry's upward trend gradually becoming clearer. Currently, low-priced supplies within the industry chain are being circulated and cleared at an accelerated pace, quoted prices across all product categories are rising in tandem, and the overall market is steadily improving. Driven by expectations of positive news, some smelters proactively tightened their shipment pace and suspended external quotations. Available low-priced supplies in the market were essentially exhausted, and bullish sentiment among traders and suppliers continued to intensify. Combined with steadily rising upstream tantalum ore raw material costs providing strong support, tantalum oxide and tantalum ingot prices are expected to continue their steady rise going forward. Tin On May 21, the average price of SMM 1# tin rose 3.82% from the previous trading day. As tin prices rose, wait-and-see sentiment in the market intensified, and market transactions were sluggish. Currently, from a fundamental perspective: Supply side, most smelters maintained stable production as their main focus in May; Demand side, downstream purchasing remained cautious, with most purchases made according to order requirements. Rare Earth Spot market, on May 21, supported by demand from major manufacturers' procurement, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide rose 1.81% from the previous trading day. Yesterday afternoon, inquiry and procurement activities from magnetic material enterprises increased significantly, which directly boosted market trading activity. Affected by this, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices stopped falling and recovered today, and some Pr-Nd oxide traders chose to hold back from selling, which in turn pushed up Pr-Nd oxide spot prices as well. However, as downstream inquiry prices were relatively low, actual transaction performance was mediocre. In the short term, driven by the continued increase in downstream inquiry and procurement activities, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to move sideways and hold up well. Institutional Views Guojin Securities pointed out in a research report on May 18: Rare earths: From the beginning of the year to date, the price center has been continuously raised, which we believe is likely highly correlated with supply-side policy documents released from 2024 to 2025, as industry supply-side reform continues to advance. Full-year exports in 2025 were down 1% YoY, while exports since the beginning of 2026 have increased significantly, indicating that ex-China restocking demand remains substantial. The rare earth sector will continue to see dual upgrades in valuation and earnings, and 2026 is also a critical year for key targets to resolve horizontal competition issues. Tin: Guojin Securities believes that tin ingot invisible inventory is gradually drying up, and therefore tin prices are expected to strengthen amid macro liquidity replenishment or technology sector spillover effects. The tin supply-demand pattern is expected to improve over the long term. Molybdenum: Molybdenum concentrates were priced at 5,210 yuan/mtu this period, up 10.50% MoM; ferromolybdenum was priced at 324,000 yuan/mt this period, up 9.46% MoM. Imported ore has been drawn down to a significant extent, and domestic molybdenum prices have stabilized and rebounded. Steel bidding volumes remained robust, with destocking across the industry chain, gradually breaking the deadlock of "volume without price" in molybdenum, and the upward channel has become further confirmed. Molybdenum is also a defense metal, with inventory persistently low, and increased ex-China national defense spending may further boost molybdenum prices. Tantalum: The tantalum industry is expected to benefit from the upward cycle driven by high-end demand boost. Related targets: Eastern Tantalum, Xinjinlu, Jiangwu Equipment. CITIC Securities issued a research report on May 13, stating that in Q1 2025 and Q1 2026, earnings growth in the metals sector generally accelerated, with tungsten, lithium, lead-zinc, and rare earth magnetic materials leading the gains, while aluminum, copper (copper: BK1615 3,885.79, 0.58%), nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold have performed relatively weakly since the beginning of the year. Current metals sector valuations remain at reasonable levels, with aluminum, copper, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold valuations at relatively low levels, and valuation rebounds remain promising. Industry dividends pulled back slightly, but projected dividend yields for some individual stocks still exceed 5%. Looking ahead to 2026, with liquidity shocks easing, supply disruptions occurring frequently, and select downstream sectors sustaining relatively high prosperity, it is recommended to continue focusing on allocation opportunities in lithium, copper, rare earths, strategic metals, aluminum, and gold sectors. Guotai Haitong Securities believes that rare earth prices have been gradually consolidating at lows since 2024, with the slowdown in domestic quota allocation continuing, and while expectations for ex-China rare earth development have been fermenting, actual progress may fall short of expectations. On the demand side, NEVs, home appliances, wind power, and other sectors have maintained the fundamental demand base, while humanoid robots represent a long-term upside option, and the curtain on a supply-demand reversal has already been gradually rising. As a strategic commodity in China, rare earth is expected to see a double boost in both earnings and valuation. Recommended reading: