[SMM Tin Midday Review: A Tug-of-War Between Supply-Demand Imbalance (Disruptions in Myanmar and Africa) and Off-Season Demand; SHFE Tin Prices May Remain High and Rangebound in the Afternoon] As of midday today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) was quoted at 265,840 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.81% from the previous trading day, continuing to fluctuate rangebound. Slow Resumption of Production in Myanmar's Wa Region: Despite the initiation of production resumptions at the end of April, strict logistics inspections at the China-Myanmar border and extended processing times for mining licenses have delayed the actual increase in tin ore output until July. Starting from June 4, the Thai government has banned the transit of tin ore through Myanmar, which is expected to affect domestic imports by approximately 500-1,000 mt (metal content) in June, exacerbating the tight raw material supply for smelting.

【SMM Analysis: Operating Rates of Refined Tin Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Remain Low, Raw Material Shortages Continue to Impact Smelting Sector】: According to SMM's in-depth market survey data on processing, as of this Friday, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at low levels, with a combined operating rate of 56.34%. Recent tin ore imports in Yunnan have stayed low, with the Wa State mining area in Myanmar delaying its production resumption plans due to a 7.9-magnitude earthquake on March 28. Although a recent resumption meeting was successfully held, considering the extended time required for mine resumption, expectations of supply disruptions from Southeast Asian sources have intensified. Meanwhile, the Bisie tin mine in the DRC halted production due to armed conflict, and despite announcing phased resumption in April, subsequent tin ore output may slightly decline. The processing fees for 40% grade tin concentrates in Yunnan have fallen to historical lows, compressing raw material inventory cycles for some smelters, and weekly operating rates have continued to decline since the beginning of the year. The delayed resumption in the Wa State mining area, coupled with political risks in Africa, has led to tight supply of high-grade ore for Yunnan's smelting sector. In March, the DRC and Nigeria contributed 43% of tin ore imports, but transportation delays and geopolitical conflicts have increased uncertainty in future supply. Additionally, the shortage of low-grade ore is prominent, with widespread reductions and shutdowns of fuming furnaces, further limiting the overall capacity release in Yunnan.

In 2022, Myanmar's tin ore output stood at 40,500 mt, a year-on-year increase of 19%, accounting for about 13.1% of the global tin ore output in 2022.