Data released by the Customs Statistics online query platform showed that China's imports of tin ore and concentrates in May 2026 totaled 16,831.03 mt, up 7.07% MoM and up 25.61% YoY. China imported 6,633.74 mt of tin ore and concentrates from Myanmar in May, up 16.84% MoM and up 384.46% YoY. China imported 3,857.61 mt of tin ore and concentrates from the DRC in May, up 33.95% MoM and up 0.60% YoY. On the export side, China's exports of tin ore and concentrates in May 2026 stood at 0.02 mt, up 118.18% MoM and up 700.00% YoY. China exported 0.02 mt of tin ore and concentrates to the UK in May, up 375.00% MoM and up 533.33% YoY. China exported 0.01 mt of tin ore and concentrates to the Netherlands in May, down 28.57% MoM. Below is a breakdown of import data compiled from the official website of China's General Administration of Customs: Origin May 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Myanmar 6,633.74 16.84% 384.46% DRC 3,857.61 33.95% 0.60% Nigeria 1,723.27 39.02% -33.35% Australia 1,703.61 34.82% -8.68% Bolivia 1,033.78 -57.41% -52.77% Rwanda 246.09 -6.63% 20.56% Russia 231.45 -56.14% - Venezuela 213.12 48.46% 49.04% Indonesia 203.64 354.28% 0.91% Malaysia 199.07 -56.82% -35.27% Brazil 186.73 55.10% 73.42% Thailand 161.80 117.65% 978.69% Vietnam 139.00 -11.39% 35.13% Laos 128.92 -20.60% -59.61% Colombia 111.29 89.29% 383.19% Namibia 26.06 - - Zambia 19.23 8.26% - Tanzania 9.70 -59.50% -60.25% North Korea 2.89 149.14% - Total 16,831.03 7.07% 25.61% Source: General Administration of Customs Below is a breakdown of export data compiled from the official website of China's General Administration of Customs: Destination May 2026 (mt) MoM YoY UK 0.02 375.00% 533.33% Total 0.02 118.18% 700.00% Source: General Administration of Customs (Comprehensive report by Wen Hua)
Jun 20, 2026 21:25![[SMM Conference] ICM 2026: Insights on Global Tin Market Dynamics, Trade Transition & Sustainable Development](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imagesyAKNA20260616115925.jpeg)
From June 3 to June 5, Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , in a strategic partnership with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and dedicated sub-forums, attracting 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, featuring more than 120+ speakers sharing insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG development, etc. Conference Background of Tin Forum In 2022, both LME and SHFE tin annual prices closed lower, and the market at the time may not have anticipated that this would serve as the prelude to a three-year upward cycle. From 2023 to 2025, tin prices recorded three consecutive years of gains, with both LME and SHFE tin surging over 30% in 2025. Entering 2026, the upward trend has continued, with tin prices hitting a new record high and becoming one of the most closely watched metals in the industrial metals market. However, this rally has not been smooth. In the past two years, tin prices have fluctuated significantly within an upward channel, driven by deep adjustments in global supply-demand patterns, especially multiple disruptions on the supply side. On the demand side, emerging sectors such as AI servers, PV welding strips, and NEVs have rapidly risen, coupled with a recovery in consumer electronics, continuously highlighting tin's strategic value in high-end manufacturing and steadily expanding rigid demand. On the supply side, global tin resources are highly concentrated, production resumptions in Myanmar have fallen short of expectations, some ex-China mining areas have been disrupted by geopolitical factors, and Indonesia—a key link in global refined tin supply—has seen its industrial policy adjustments become a critical variable affecting market expectations. Reviewing Indonesia's tin industry policy, the past two years have shown a clear trajectory of "standardizing and regulating, tightening exports, and promoting downstream development." In 2024, the Mining Work Plan (RKAB) was adjusted from an annual to a three-year basis, and exports experienced temporary fluctuations during the policy transition. In 2025, Indonesia further strengthened governance over illegal mining, shutting down some illegal tin mines, cracking down on smuggling activities, and adjusting tin ore royalty fees, leading to higher production costs. Entering 2026, the policy direction has become clearer, with studies on restricting refined tin exports, lowering export quotas, and plans to raise tin royalty tax rates, promoting the transition from resource exports to high value-added processing. These adjustments are reshaping the rhythm and trade patterns of the global tin supply chain. As an important platform connecting the global tin industry chain with the Indonesian resource market, the Tin Forum focuses on the latest developments in Indonesia's tin policies, the evolution of the global tin supply-demand pattern, price trend analysis, and industrial cooperation opportunities. It brings together government officials, industry experts, miners, smelters, and downstream end-user representatives to jointly explore new opportunities in the global supply chain amid the transformation of Indonesia's tin industry. Click to view photo gallery of tin forum Tin Forum June 4 Visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is pleased to announce that an SMM-led delegation, headed by SMM Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager Jenny Wu and made up of delegates from the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2026 , conducted a formal visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) on June 4. The event was organized by SMM and co-organized by Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Economic Council, Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI), and MMR, with the Jakarta Futures Exchange as the strategic partner. This visit underscores SMM’s commitment to fostering long-term, win-win partnerships between Indonesia’s top mineral exporters and global metals industry stakeholders. Supply and Demand Exchange Session June 5 Opening Remarks Speaker: Adam Fan, Chairman of SMM Keynote Speech Keynote Speech: DRC Tin Ore: Current Supply Status and Market Dynamics Insights Speaker: Raj Chug, General Manager, Mining Mineral Resources Keynote Speech: African Tin Ore: Resource Potential and Supply Chain Breakthrough Paths Amid Supply Shortages Speaker: Egyul Mamoko, Metallurgist Expert, CTCPM (Cellule Technique de Coordination et de Planification Minière) [Panel Discussion] Global Tin Mine Supply Seminar: Current Status, Opportunities, and Future Challenges Moderator: Vicky Qiao, Senior Analyst at SMM Panelists: Egyul Mamoko, Metallurgist Expert, CTCPM (Cellule Technique de Coordination et de Planification Minière) Erwin Setyawan, Head of Trading & Operation, Jakarta Futures Exchange Joseph G. Miller Esq, Strategic & Defense Metals Specialist/Director, Mission Critical Metals, Mission Critical Metals Keynote Speech: The Development Trend of the Tin Market in China Speaker: Zheyu Zhang, Tin Market Analyst, Marketing Department, Yuntin (Honghe) Investment Development Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Opportunities and Challenges for Smelters Under Indonesia's New Tin Industry Policies Speaker: Yazid Kanca Surya, Chief Executive Officer, Jakarta Futures Exchange Fragmented Global Supply Chain System Reshaping of the Geopolitical Landscape : Trade disputes and geopolitical tensions are profoundly altering traditional commodity trade patterns. Industrial Security :Countries are increasingly prioritizing long-term stable supply of strategic resources over short-term price advantages. Focus on Critical Minerals : Tin’s industry role is no longer isolated; it has become a core issue in the global energy transition and high-end manufacturing sectors. Evolution of the Tin Market The industry is entering a new phase where credibility is as important as capacity. Promoting Downstream Industrialisation (Hilirisasi) •Historical Development Background: Indonesia has long been dominated by the supply of primary processed products, with most downstream value addition achieved outside China. • Strategic Goals : Indonesia is adjusting export policies, trade management, and supply chain oversight to retain high-value-added industries within the country. Strengthening regulation and cracking down on illegal mining are not punitive measures, but rather efforts to build a transparent system to help the local area vigorously promote the development of downstream industries. Smelters Under Pressure Upstream uncertainties: Illegal mining disrupts the market, raw material supply fluctuates, and price trends are difficult to predict. Downstream market requirements: Strict compliance standards, full transparency in raw material traceability, and continuously rising screening thresholds for buyers. Market Volatility Intensifies The uncertainty in the current operating environment has increased significantly. Enterprises must not only cope with production risks, but also simultaneously address the multiple pressures arising from external shocks and rising operating costs. Investment Barriers in Deep Processing Keynote Speech: Deepening Downstream Diversification, Joining Hands to Foster Long-term Prosperity Guest Speaker: HARRY BUDI SIDHARTA, S.T, MM., Vice President Director, PT Timah (Persero) Tbk Keynote Speech: Challenges and Opportunities for China's Tin Industry amid Global Tin Ore Supply Changes Guest Speaker: Huanbo Qin, Market Analyst, International Tin Association China Keynote Speech: Analysis of Global Tin Price Trends and Future Outlook Speaker: Vicky Qiao, Senior Analyst, Shanghai Metals Market Price Trend Overview Price Review: Amid macroeconomic and geopolitical disruptions, market fundamentals have provided structural support Key Points: Tight mine-side supply has established a long-term price floor, while macro liquidity has primarily driven price fluctuations. Tin Resources and Mine Supply Landscape Supply elasticity is limited, accompanied by a high geographic concentration of reserves; the global static mine life is less than 15 years. Rising mine production alongside shrinking global resources has accelerated reserve depletion in producing countries. DRC: Output from major mines remained stable; however, M23 militant activities increased market uncertainty. ►Risks 1. The M23 armed conflict has spread to the Masisi region east of the Bisie mine and the Goma border crossing between the DRC and Rwanda, directly disrupting the original tin ore transportation route via Goma to Dar es Salaam. 2. To mitigate conflict risks, security at the Bisie mine has been reinforced, and freight routes have been adjusted northward to reroute through Uganda, ultimately destined for the port of Mombasa in Kenya. Nevertheless, market concerns persist that further spread of the M23 conflict could disrupt normal production operations at the mine. 3. The DRC recently experienced an Ebola outbreak, with confirmed cases concentrated in Beni and Bunia, areas adjacent to Uganda. Strict disease prevention measures have been implemented at both the mine and along transportation links; Bisie's mining and freight activities have yet to be affected by the pandemic impact. However, the market remains apprehensive about the local mineral supply outlook. Myanmar's Man Maw Tin Mine: Production Resumptions Hindered • 90% of Myanmar's tin ore production is concentrated in Wa State. To ensure rational resource extraction and stable regional development, Wa State suspended all tin ore mining starting in 2023, with new mining permits only reissued in July 2025. Due to the local rainy climate, the mine pits accumulated significant water during the suspension, making drainage the primary challenge upon work resumption. As the water accumulation issue affected multiple pits, the cost-sharing arrangements for drainage among mining enterprises were long delayed and never finalized. The resulting obstruction of drainage work has directly constrained the mine's production resumption progress. •In February 2026, the local government issued detailed rules clarifying the cost-sharing standards for drainage, and the Wa State tin mine immediately began resuming production. •Currently, strict approval and control of civilian explosives in Myanmar, compounded by disruptions to mining and logistics caused by the rainy season, have led to progress in local production resumptions falling short of expectations. Full resumption is expected only by 2027. The number of new tin mine projects globally is scarce, with generally low ore grades and lengthy development-to-production cycles. New projects generally have low ore grades, posing upside risks to future mining costs and increasing operational difficulty. Only three new projects have grades above 1%. Lower ore grades mean that more raw ore must be processed to produce the same amount of tin metal. The future supply landscape will be markedly differentiated, with total planned and under-construction projects reaching 173.5 kt in capacity, and just four major projects accounting for over 67%. Global supply will be highly dependent on these core mine projects, while five new projects in Australia can only bring a small incremental increase with limited impact. Global Tin Ingot Supply The high concentration of primary tin smelting capacity limits the global supply elasticity of tin ingots. Keynote Speech: Achieving the Trading and Risk Hedging of Pure Tin Ingots Through the Standardized Trading Mechanism of the Futures Market – Commodity Futures Trading Regulatory Authority Guest Speaker: Ima Siti Fatimah, Head of the Commodity Futures Trading Development Bureau, Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia Keynote Speech: Under the Drive of Geopolitical Policies: Global Strategic Metal Tin Trade Restructuring, Breakthroughs in North American Secondary Production, and New Logic in Solder Consumption Guest Speaker: Joseph G. Miller Esq, Strategic & Defense Metals Specialist/Director, Mission Critical Metals, Mission Critical Metals ► Securing Supply: US Plan to Reshore Critical Metal (Tin) Capacity • Lessons drawn from COVID-19 and World War II. • No primary tin capacity currently exists in North America: no tin ore mining operations, no tin ore smelting capacity. • The US secondary tin market is regionally fragmented. • The US government supports the Nathan Trotter primary/secondary tin smelter. • The Trump administration has made multiple investments in the critical metals sector. • Security situation in the DRC and surrounding regions. ► Data Center Tin Consumption Estimates How much tin is consumed per gigawatt of installed data center capacity? • Servers, GPUs, network systems: 500–1,500 mt. • Power systems, switchgear: 100–400 mt. • Control devices, communication equipment, cooling systems: 50–200 mt. • Tin usage per gigawatt of installed AI data center capacity is approximately 1,200–1,500 mt. Additionally, the speaker noted: the PV industry's annual tin consumption is about 25,000 mt, with average annual new installations of around 30 GW, corresponding to tin demand of 36,000–45,000 mt. Keynote Speech: Due Diligence in the Indonesian Tin Sector: A Tradition of Early Adoption and Pathways for ESG Leadership Guest Speaker: Josue Ruiz, Director of Facility Engagement, Responsible Minerals Initiative Keynote Speech: Malaysian Tin Mine: Market Breakthrough and Global Expansion from the Perspective of Critical Minerals Guest Speaker: DATO DEREK TENG, Director of the SETARA JELITA SDN BHD, President of the MALAYSIA MARITIME SILK ROUTE RESEARCH SOCIETY Critical Minerals in the New Era Strategic Positioning and Core Applications of Tin National Strategic Cornerstone: Listed in the “Critical Minerals List” by many countries, it holds an irreplaceable core position in securing national resource security and maintaining the resilience of global supply chains. Modern Industrial Lifeline: The core raw material for electronic solder manufacturing, it supports semiconductor packaging, PCB circuit boards, and other electronic information industries, serving as the “industrial monosodium glutamate” of modern manufacturing. Frontier Technology Engine: Empowering emerging technologies such as 5G communications, NEV batteries, PV modules, and AI chips, it drives the dual transformation of the digital economy and green transition. Tin: The “Industrial MSG” Driving High-Tech Industries ► A Core Member of the Global Critical Minerals System U.S. Official Designation: According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “2025 Critical Minerals List,” tin is formally listed as a critical mineral, regarded as a strategic resource vital to national economic development and national security. Global Industry Consensus: In the mineral assessment systems of the EU and other developed economies, tin also occupies a core position. It is an indispensable “emerging cornerstone mineral” supporting the global digital economic transformation and the upgrade of the new energy industry. The global tin application structure in 2025 is very clear: 53% is used in semiconductors and high-end electronic solder, 16% in fine tin chemical new materials, 11% in food-grade tinplate and tin cans, and 8% directly in the PV green new energy industry. Tin Applications in High-Growth Sectors Currently, three major high-growth tracks worldwide are continuously driving rigid incremental demand for tin. First, AI computing power and hyperscale data centers: The tin consumption per unit of high-end AI servers is 3–13 times that of ordinary servers. With the explosive growth of global AI computing power demand, the demand for high-end solder will continue to grow rapidly. Second, new energy vehicles: Tin consumption per vehicle is about three times that of internal combustion engine vehicles, and for intelligent car models, it can reach up to 1.5 kg per vehicle. Third, advanced packaging: The solder ball usage of advanced packaging technologies such as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is more than five times that of traditional DRAM. Malaysia at a Crossroads The Decline of a Former Empire and Opportunities for Transformation ► Glorious History · Tin Empire: In the 1960s, Malaysia was the world's veritable "Tin Empire." Its tin production once accounted for one-third of the global total, and revenue from tin exports represented as much as 60% of the country's total export revenue, dominating the global tin trade landscape. ► Current Situation · Dual Challenges: However, after industrial iteration, its share of global production was only 0.2% in 2023, with annual output falling to 6,100 mt, marking a sharp decline. Malaysia still holds considerable secondary resource reserves of 780,000 tonnes, with native ore depleted but tailings holding significant potential. ► Future · Reshaping Value Strategic Empowerment: Leverage the new strategic identity of “critical minerals” to enhance discourse power and bargaining power in the international supply chain. Industrial Leap: Shift away from dependence on primary tin ingot exports and move towards high value-added deep processing manufacturing and the establishment of a circular economy system. Core Challenges Faced Currently, Malaysia’s tin industry faces four core structural challenges. Market Breakthrough: Reshaping Value Embrace the New Identity and Extend into Downstream High Value-Added Sectors Build a Regional Circular Economy Center Core Strategy: Fully leverage Malaysia’s industrial advantage as a global electronics manufacturing center, turning the large amount of tin-containing scrap generated during production—including solder dross, waste circuit boards, etc.—into valuable recycled tin resources, and establish an “urban mining” resource recycling system. Keynote Speech: From Waste to Value: How Smelters and Recycling Enterprises Uncover Hidden Treasures in Tin Ore By-Products Guest Speaker: Justin Wang, Director of Marketing and Technology, Stannum Solutions(Shanghai) Co., Ltd.
Jun 16, 2026 11:59Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is pleased to announce that an SMM-led delegation, headed by SMM Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager Jenny Wu and made up of delegates from the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2026 , conducted a formal visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) on June 4. The event was organized by SMM and co-organized by Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Economic Council, Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI), and MMR, with the Jakarta Futures Exchange as the strategic partner. This visit underscores SMM’s commitment to fostering long-term, win-win partnerships between Indonesia’s top mineral exporters and global metals industry stakeholders. During the exchange meeting, AETI representatives gave a detailed introduction to the association’s development history and the overall production and operational conditions of some local tin enterprises in Indonesia. In the Q&A session, the two sides engaged in in-depth discussions on key industry topics such as the progress of Indonesian tin ore mining quota approvals and certain current industry-related policies, sharing market information and exchanging industry perspectives. This face-to-face exchange further strengthened ties between industry partners within and outside China, laying a solid foundation for future cross-regional cooperation and information sharing along the tin industry chain. Introduction to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) Profile The AETI was established on May 9, 2014, and became a member of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KADIN) on March 14, 2015. Objectives: Creating productive collaboration between the government, entrepreneurs, and stakeholders Increasing the added value of Indonesian Tin Encouraging the implementation of Good Mining Practices in the tin mining industry Board of AETI Management AETI Members Currently, AETI has 23 member companies of tin exporters spread across the islands of Bangka, Belitung, and Riau AETI Mandate/Functions Advocating for policies that support the national tin industry Maintaining the stability and sustainability of the tin export market Ensuring member compliance with environmental and trading regulations Serving as a forum of communication between tin exporters and the government AETI Internal Activities Training & Development AETI Member Meeting Tin Seller–Buyer Meeting Others: Reclamation, Charity, Conference, etc. As a demonstration of AETI's commitment to the environment, we have launched a reclamation program targeting 500 hectares of abandoned post-mining land in Bangka Belitung. AETI also runs regular social programs for the community in Bangka Belitung Indonesia Tin Update AETI forecasts that the total national tin production quota in the 2026 Mining Work Plan (RKAB) will be approximately 50,000 tons. This figure has been adjusted from around 53,000 tons in 2025 to stabilize global tin prices. Currently, ten enterprises have obtained RKAB approvals. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) is implementing a more selective evaluation and adjustment of the RKAB. The Indonesian government has introduced these policies to secure future energy reserves while simultaneously controlling the structure of tin trade to prevent illegal mining practices. Dynamics of Indonesian Tin Industry Regulatory Policies The dynamics of tin regulation in Indonesia over the past few years have undergone a massive paradigm shift. Driven by ensuring the sustainability and improving the governance of natural resources, optimizing state revenue and promoting downstream industrialization. 1. The validity period of the RKAB has been restored to one year (previously a three-year system). The policy aims to strengthen the government’s supervision of annual production, close loopholes in illegal mining, and adjust quotas in real time based on global market demand. Legal basis: an Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) ministerial regulation, now officially implemented. Currently, smelters must reapply annually, and the approval process is becoming stricter. While this measure reduces the predictability of multi-year supply, it has effectively curbed speculative over-application of production quotas. 2. Downstream development policy (Hilirisasi) This drives Indonesia’s transformation from an exporter of raw materials and refined ingots into a producer of high-value-added finished products, retaining profits domestically. The policy is a key pillar of the current government’s national development philosophy and falls under the President’s eight core governance goals (Asta Cita). Indonesia has streamlined regulatory rules for the export of industrial tin products, covering raw material procurement and product technical standards, thereby promoting the domestic production and export of high-end tin products such as tin solder, tin chemicals, tin powder, and tin plate. 3. Designating tin as a critical strategic mineral Tin has been elevated to a strategic status concerning national resilience and security, ensuring long-term domestic supply for key industries such as EVs and electronics. Legal basis: the Presidential Regulation on the Governance of Critical and Strategic Minerals, currently under development. With tin classified as a critical strategic mineral, mining supervision becomes stricter, and the central government gains the highest authority over production control. This has accelerated the downstreamization of Indonesia’s tin industry and, together with tightening global supply, has at times driven a significant rise in tin prices. 4. Establishing a benchmark price for tin ore This creates a fair, standardized price floor for domestic tin ore transactions in Indonesia, ensuring optimal state revenue (royalties) while securing reasonable income for local miners/partners. Legal basis: an ESDM ministerial regulation, under development. The policy can eliminate low-ball pricing and malicious push for lower prices among local miners, partners, and smelters. Domestic ore transaction prices are set with reference to public international benchmarks such as the London Metal Exchange, the Indonesia Commodity Exchange, and the Jakarta Futures Exchange, and are adjusted based on actual local costs. 5. Single export gateway policy for strategic commodities Strategic commodities must go through a designated unified gateway/trading platform for centralized export business, enabling end-to-end compliance supervision, traceable flows, and ensuring full collection of taxes and royalties. Legal basis: joint regulations formulated by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Ministry of Trade, currently under development. Export business is handled exclusively through the state-designated institution — Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia — which may weaken the role of domestic private enterprises in the export process.
Jun 8, 2026 15:49SHFE tin opened the week with a rally in full swing, pushing prices to within striking distance of an all-time high, primarily driven by supply-side disruptions and the computing power theme. In the last two days, however, the market suddenly reversed course, with prices pulling back sharply in a broad decline that completely erased the week’s earlier gains. What changed in the market’s trading logic? Rise and Fall on the Same Catalyst: Semiconductor Stocks Pull Back As the iteration of large AI models advances and high-end computing power chips are upgraded, the amount of solder required in their production increases. This year, tin’s label as a computing-power metal has continued to strengthen. Amid the AI frenzy, semiconductor indices outside China maintained a sustained rally, which not only boosted demand expectations for tin but also significantly benefited tin prices through the stock-futures linkage effect. However, heights breed danger. After a parabolic surge, chip stocks repeatedly hit new highs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index components recently traded at 26 times forward 12-month earnings, well above the 10-year average of 21 times. The AI space became increasingly crowded, and market disagreement grew over the rally’s sustainability. Going forward, whether AI demand effectively spreads and the earnings performance of chip leaders have become the market’s center of focus. The newly released revenue of chipmaker Broadcom missed expectations, cooling the AI fervour to some extent. Overnight, chip stocks suffered a collective sell-off, and today the South Korean stock market plunged, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix falling sharply. Against the backdrop of a significant pullback in semiconductor stocks, tin prices were inevitably dragged down, leading the decline in China’s commodity futures market today. The market is now assessing whether AI infrastructure investment has already overdrawn future growth expectations, though some investors remain optimistic. Yesterday, the US Nasdaq index opened lower but rebounded to largely recoup its losses by the close. The overall market style displayed a rotation of funds rather than a mass exodus, making it difficult to argue that the bullish expectations for future semiconductor stocks have completely dissipated. Overseas Central Bank Policy Expectations Turn Hawkish, Liquidity Concerns Intensify Recent US-Iran negotiations have seen repeated developments, but judging by the overall trend in precious and base metals, the market largely ignored the short-term headline noise. The overall trend remained under pressure, mainly weighed down by liquidity concerns. Market expectations for the timing of potential interest rate hikes by European and US central banks are being pulled forward, with multiple factors reinforcing this view. On one hand, US economic data showed resilience. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 54 in May, a near four-year high and the fifth consecutive month in expansion territory. Some employment data showed improvement, and the labour market maintained its characteristic of "low hiring, low layoffs," providing ample justification for a policy shift. On the other hand, US inflationary pressures are evident. Both the PCE price index and the US Fed’s Beige Book indicated that cooling consumption and rising price pressures have emerged simultaneously across multiple sectors. Uptick in inflation is tightening the outlook for monetary policy. In addition, the overall stance of US Fed officials has turned hawkish. The minutes from the April Federal Reserve meeting showed that the internal assessment has shifted, from previously expecting interest rate cuts later in the year to a greater inclination to maintain current rate levels for an extended period, and even not ruling out a further increase in borrowing costs. Recently, several officials also released hiking signals, stating that if inflation remains persistently high, the possibility of further policy tightening cannot be ruled out. Fundamentals Have Not Shifted, Supply-Side Support Remains Overall, the sharp pullback in SHFE tin over the latest two days was mainly dragged down by liquidity risk and a cooling of the AI frenzy. Tin prices have always exhibited high elasticity. Currently, the futures price has only given back the gains of the preceding two days, with the center not yet moving further downward, which indirectly reflects that support from the tin market’s supply-demand structure still exists. Currently, traditional demand-side tracks remain subdued, while the emerging computing power engine remains robust. Marginal growth keeps demand expectations for the tin market bullish, while ongoing supply-side disruptions bring more upward momentum. Recently, key producing regions including Myanmar, the DRC, and Indonesia have all seen varying degrees of disturbance. Specifically, supply recovery in Myanmar has been slow, hampered by operational restrictions, material approvals, and accidents. The Goma border crossing in the DRC was previously closed due to an Ebola outbreak, raising market concerns about supply disruptions. Indonesia’s export policy outlook carries high uncertainty, with the overall policy direction showing a persistently tightening trend, reflecting deeper resource nationalism and the bottleneck of tin ore flows against the backdrop of resource de-globalization. In summary, current inflationary pressures are intensifying, and interest rate hikes by European and US central banks seem to be on the verge of deployment, making it difficult to expect any easing in liquidity. Commodity trends will remain under pressure. However, the computing power theme is unlikely to fizzle out, and mine-side supply growth is limited, which may restrict near-term downside space. The market retains a bullish outlook for SHFE tin over the medium and long term. (Wenhua, Synthesized)
Jun 5, 2026 15:40The minutes of Xingye Silver&Tin's investor briefing announced on May 27 show: 1. Question: Mr. Sun! After the commissioning of Yinman Phase II, the plan is to mainly process lead-zinc-silver series ore, and the ore type and grade are expected to show relatively small changes compared to the Phase I lead-zinc system. Simply put, Zone 1 and Zone 4 are important resource replacement areas for Yinman Mining in the future, but currently they still belong to "potential zones" and cannot be directly classified into the "core rich ore" category like Orebody No. 17. Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! As of now, Orebody No. 17 is the main orebody that has been proven at Yinman. 2. Question: Hello, could you share the company's outlook on its own resources going forward and its assessment of the future market? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! As an important participant in China's mineral resources sector and one of the world's leading silver-tin polymetallic mining enterprises, the company is firmly optimistic about its strategic layout, resource reserves, and industry prospects. 3. Question: Mr. Sun, over the past two years, the company has continuously pursued project acquisitions with an expanding financing scale. Can talent and technology be guaranteed? Can timely operations and safety be ensured? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! In recent years, the company has prudently conducted project acquisitions and financing activities centered on its core business, with the overall expansion pace being controllable. Currently, the company has a complete talent pipeline and mature core technologies, and has established a standardized operational management and safety and environmental protection-related controls system, which can fully ensure the stable operation of all acquired projects and effectively prevent various risks. 4. Question: Mr. Sun, was your increase in shareholding in 2026 because you are optimistic about the company's several major projects this year? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Like other small and medium investors of the company, I am firmly optimistic about the company's potential investment value and plan to hold for the long term. 5. Question: @Director, Vice President and Board Secretary Sun Kai. Dear Secretary Sun, the company's Hong Kong IPO prospectus disclosed a 2026 tin production guidance of 5,500 mt, but Q1 production was only 777 mt, annualized at only 3,100 mt, far below the full-year guidance. May I ask: 1) Was the low Q1 production due to the technological transformation ramp-up of Yinman's copper-tin system, equipment commissioning, or low recovery rates? 2) What is the capacity release pace in subsequent quarters, and can the full-year guidance of 5,500 mt be achieved? 3) What are the timetable for reaching full production after technological transformation and the recovery rate improvement targets? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Based on the principles of comprehensive resource recovery and safe and efficient mining, the company simultaneously mines Orebody No. 17 and other copper-tin orebodies. For the company's production data, please refer to the periodic reports published on the company's designated information disclosure media. 6. Question: After the acquisition of Weiling Co., the company's related resources will inevitably be tilted toward that company. Please terminate the acquisition of Weiling Co. Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Regarding the progress of the Weiling Co. project, please follow the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 7. Question: What are the respective positioning of Xingye Silver&Tin A-shares, Xingye Silver&Tin H-shares, and Weiling Co.? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Regarding the progress of the Weiling Co. project, please follow the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 8. Question: Dear Board Secretary, is the Q1 performance sustainable? What are the current capacity and inventory of silver and tin respectively? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! In Q1 2026, the company's mined silver production was 78.95 mt and mined tin production was 777.33 mt. As of the end of Q1 2026, silver inventory was 15.04 mt and tin inventory was 83.67 mt. 9. Question: Is there a preliminary timetable for the Hong Kong listing? Can it be completed before the end of December this year? Among the company's plans, no projects have been implemented in Xinjiang yet. What kind of resources is the company planning for in the Xinjiang segment? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! The company will release progress announcements on designated media in a timely manner based on project developments. Please stay tuned! 10. Question: Dear Board Secretary, how does the company view the sustained growth in silver and tin demand driven by AI and new energy? Tin production was 8,900 mt in 2024, but the 2026 guidance was lowered to 5,500 mt. What is the core reason? What is the pace of subsequent capacity release for the Yinman technological transformation and the Morocco project? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! The materials related to the Hong Kong listing adopt the JORC Code, a technical standard developed by Australia. For example, the JORC Code defines "ore reserves" as the economically mineable part of measured and/or indicated mineral resources. The above standard differs to some extent from China's standards, resulting in certain deviations between the relevant data under planning and actual production and operations. Specific production data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company's periodic reports. 11. Question: Has the land certificate and construction permit for Yinman Phase II been obtained? Please do not respond with "please follow the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media." Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Yinman Phase II is expected to commence construction on July 1. After construction begins, the company will promptly disclose relevant progress announcements. Please stay tuned! 12. Question: Last year, the company was bullish on silver prices continuing to rise and chose to stockpile. Now silver prices are under pressure and the company did not hedge. Is the company still bullish on silver?The stock price has been continuously under pressure. Will the company proactively manage this? Xingye Silver&Tin replied: Thank you for your attention! As of now, the company has not conducted any futures hedging business. The company's hedging is carried out prudently at appropriate times based on actual production and operations as well as market conditions, with strict control over transaction risks. 13. Question: What is the current tin recovery rate at Yinman? The report for the Hong Kong listing shows a significant decline in grade. Is this in line with the company's current situation? If based on that report, it seems the company does not need to proceed with the Phase II expansion of Yinman, which appears somewhat contradictory. When will all of the company's capacity reach full production? After all capacity reaches full production, what will be the approximate production of silver and tin? Atlantic Tin has a gold exploration right. Could you briefly introduce the situation of that mine? Does the company have any plans to increase its equity stake in Far East Gold in the future? Xingye Silver&Tin replied: Thank you for your attention! The technical standards used in the Hong Kong listing materials are based on the JORC Code formulated by Australia. For example, the JORC Code defines "Ore Reserves" as the economically mineable part of Measured and/or Indicated Mineral Resources. The above standards differ to some extent from China's standards, resulting in certain deviations between the relevant data in the long-term planning and actual production and operations. Specific production data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company's periodic reports. 14. Question: Hello, Secretary of the Board. The resource volumes and capacity plans for Yinman and Yubang Mining disclosed in the Hong Kong IPO prospectus are lower than the company's previous communication figures. What is the core reason? Is it due to differences in the JORC Code methodology (only including Measured and Indicated Resources, excluding Inferred Resources)? Does it involve resource reductions, grade downgrades, or mining plan adjustments? Is there room for future resource additions or upward revisions? Xingye Silver&Tin replied: Thank you for your attention! The technical standards used in the Hong Kong listing materials are based on the JORC Code formulated by Australia. For example, the JORC Code defines "Ore Reserves" as the economically mineable part of Measured and/or Indicated Mineral Resources. The above standards differ to some extent from China's standards, resulting in certain deviations between the relevant data in the long-term planning and actual production and operations. Specific production data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company's periodic reports. 15. Question: Mr. Sun, based on the materials disclosed for the company's Hong Kong listing, the company's production of silver and especially tin is significantly lower than previous expectations. Is this estimate, this guidance, the company's true guidance, or a theoretical guidance made by SRK based on their assessment? Does the company plan to issue a medium and long-term guidance that is in line with the company's actual production plans to clarify these expectations?Otherwise, these expectations may have a significant negative impact on the company and noticeably undermine investor confidence. In fact, this is also unfavorable for the company's listing on international capital markets for financing and further development. Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! The Hong Kong listing-related materials adopt the JORC Code established by Australia as the technical standard. For example, the JORC Code defines "Ore Reserves" as the economically mineable part of Measured and/or Indicated Mineral Resources. The above standards differ to some extent from China's standards, resulting in certain deviations between the relevant data in the long-term plan and actual production and operations. Specific production data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company's periodic reports. 16. Question: Mr. Sun, hello. The prospectus explains that there will be discrepancies between the Competent Person's planned mineral processing production schedule and the enterprise's actual situation. Could Mr. Sun please introduce the production plan for silver and tin from 2028 to 2030? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! The Hong Kong listing-related materials adopt the JORC Code established by Australia as the technical standard. For example, the JORC Code defines "Ore Reserves" as the economically mineable part of Measured and/or Indicated Mineral Resources. The above standards differ to some extent from China's standards, resulting in certain deviations between the relevant data in the long-term plan and actual production and operations. Specific production data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company's periodic reports. 17. Question: Specifically regarding Yinman Mining: according to SRK's data, there will be significant grade decline in the future. In addition, the feed grade differs considerably from the company's disclosures in the 2025 annual report and previous annual reports. Is it necessary to issue a specific announcement to provide an explanation based on the different mining standards? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! The Hong Kong listing-related materials adopt the JORC Code established by Australia as the technical standard. For example, the JORC Code defines "Ore Reserves" as the economically mineable part of Measured and/or Indicated Mineral Resources. The above standards differ to some extent from China's standards, resulting in certain deviations between the relevant data in the long-term plan and actual production and operations. Specific production data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company's periodic reports. 18. Question: Have the specific construction commencement dates been confirmed for Yinman Phase II, Yubang Phase II, the Morocco tin mine, and the Budun Yingen mine managed by the controlling shareholder? Could you also provide the commissioning and full production timelines? Thank you. Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Yinman Phase II is expected to commence construction on July 1; the Yubang 8.25 million mt/year project is expected to commence construction in Q3; the Atlantic Tin project has obtained all construction permits and is currently carrying out preliminary preparation work including contractor tender and equipment transportation, with construction expected to commence in mid-July; all the above projects are expected to achieve commissioning with feed materials in Q4 2028. The managed company Budun Yingen plans to commence construction in Q4, with production expected to begin in 2029. 19. Question: Director Sun, in a previous institutional survey, you clearly stated that the company's quarterly tin production of 3,600 mt can be achieved on a regular basis. Is there an opportunity to achieve this quarterly target this year? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Adhering to the principles of comprehensive resource recovery and safe, efficient mining, the company simultaneously mines Orebody No. 17 and other copper-tin orebodies. For the company's production data, please refer to the periodic reports published by the company on designated information disclosure media. 20. Question: Does the company have the right to abandon the acquisition of the relevant equity in Weiling Shares? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! For the progress of the Weiling Shares project, please refer to the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 21. Question: Director Sun, in the records of a previous institutional survey, the company responded that Yinman's quarterly tin production of 3,600 mt can be achieved on a regular basis, but it seems this has not been realized subsequently. Is there a possibility of attempting to reach this record this year? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Adhering to the principles of comprehensive resource recovery and safe, efficient mining, the company simultaneously mines Orebody No. 17 and other copper-tin orebodies. For the company's production data, please refer to the periodic reports published by the company on designated information disclosure media. 22. Question: Is there a plan to spin off minor metals other than silver and tin to Weiling Shares? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! For the progress of the Weiling Shares project, please refer to the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 23. Question: Has the matter of acquiring Weiling been terminated? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! For the progress of the Weiling Shares project, please refer to the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 24. Question: Has the company already dispatched personnel to take over the production and operations of Jiayu Mining? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! For the progress of the Weiling Shares project, please refer to the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 25. Question: After acquiring Weiling Shares, our company will become an AAH (Xingye Weiling H) publicly listed firm. What is the company's positioning for the three listing platforms? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! For the progress of the Weiling Shares project, please refer to the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 26. Question: In the company's 2025 annual report, the company stated "solidly advancing the subsequent acquisition and integration of Weiling Shares," but Weiling Shares has been subject to a delisting risk warning. What is the purpose of our acquisition of Weiling? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention!For updates on the progress of Weiling shares project, please refer to the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. Xingye Silver&Tin's Q1 report showed that from January to March 2026, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.13 billion yuan, up 85.32% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 1.338 billion yuan, up 257.32% YoY. As of March 31, 2026, the company's total assets were 19.689 billion yuan, and net assets attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm were 10.825 billion yuan. Operating revenue breakdown: From January to March 2026, the proportion of operating revenue from the company's main mineral products to total operating revenue was as follows: ore-derived silver (1.41 billion yuan, 66.21%), ore-derived tin (234 million yuan, 10.99%), ore-derived zinc (228.12 million yuan, 10.71%), ore-derived lead (71.85 million yuan, 3.37%), ore-derived antimony (53.1 million yuan, 2.49%), ore-derived gold (51.02 million yuan, 2.40%), ore-derived iron (44.17 million yuan, 2.07%), ore-derived copper (35.65 million yuan, 1.67%), and ore-derived indium (524,100 yuan, 0.02%). Among them, ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver combined accounted for 77.19% of total operating revenue. Xingye Silver&Tin's Q1 report stated that operating profit for the current period increased 238.16% compared with the previous period, total profit increased 236.36%, and net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders increased 257.32%. The main reasons were: During the reporting period, the selling prices of the company's main mineral products such as silver and tin rose YoY; Yubang Mining's capacity was gradually released, with ore-derived silver production and sales increasing significantly YoY; and the transfer of 60% equity in Shuangyuan Non-ferrous realized investment income of 321 million yuan. Xingye Silver&Tin's 2025 annual report showed that in 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.555 billion yuan, up 30.09% YoY; total profit of 2.096 billion yuan, up 18.75% YoY; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 1.704 billion yuan, up 11.40% YoY. Xingye Silver&Tin's announcement showed that in 2025, the proportion of operating revenue from the company's main mineral products to total operating revenue was as follows: ore-derived silver (2.176 billion yuan, 39.17%), ore-derived tin (1.65 billion yuan, 29.70%), ore-derived zinc (975.87 million yuan, 17.57%), ore-derived lead (220.95 million yuan, 3.98%), ore-derived iron (180.38 million yuan, 3.25%), ore-derived copper (133 million yuan, 2.39%), ore-derived antimony (100.36 million yuan, 1.81%), ore-derived gold (82.34 million yuan, 1.48%), and ore-derived bismuth (16.67 million yuan, 0.30%). Among them, ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver combined accounted for 68.86% of total operating revenue. Regarding the company's main business and key performance drivers, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: The company is a large mining group primarily engaged in the exploration, mining, and ore processing of non-ferrous metals and precious metals. As of the disclosure date of this report, the company had over 20 subsidiaries, of which 8 were operating mining companies, namely Yinman Mining, Qianjinda Mining, Yubang Mining, Rongguan Mining, Xilin Mining, Rongbang Mining, Ruineng Mining, and Bosheng Mining. Atlas Tin SAS under Atlantic Tin was in the construction phase for the Achmmach tin mine. Tanghe Times Mining was in a suspended construction phase, while Yitong Mining and Yunnan Xigui were in the exploration phase. Hainan Fund was primarily engaged in equity investment management; Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) was primarily engaged in metals and mining trading, corporate M&A, and was responsible for expanding markets outside China and acquiring quality mineral resources ex-China; Hainan Guomao and Tianjin Guomao were primarily engaged in non-ferrous metal mineral product sales and partial raw material procurement; Xingye Ruijin was primarily engaged in process research, technology R&D and upgrading in areas such as exploration, mining and processing, and comprehensive tailings recovery and utilization. Tibet Shannan Antimony Gold, Tibet Xinda Mining, and Xing'an League Fuxingtun Mining served as the company's regional resource integration platforms. During the reporting period, the company successfully acquired 85% equity in Yubang Mining. According to data compiled by the Silver Institute as of the end of 2023, Yubang Mining's monomer silver mine ranked first in Asia and fifth globally. This acquisition further strengthened the company's resource advantages and laid a solid resource foundation for sustainable development. Meanwhile, using its subsidiary Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) as the investment vehicle, the company increased investment in mineral resources outside China and successfully acquired 100% equity in Atlantic Tin. This acquisition was an important step in implementing the company's "going global" strategy. According to the classification standards for large-scale tin mines in the "Standards for Classification of Mineral Resource Reserve Scales" (DZ/T 0400-2022), the Achmmach tin mine owned by Atlantic Tin currently amounts to the equivalent of 5 large deposits. Through this integration of tin ore resources outside China, the company further improved its international tin ore layout and also reserved important strategic resources for long-term development. The company's main performance was derived from non-ferrous metal mining and processing operations. During the reporting period, revenue from non-ferrous metal mining and processing accounted for 99.64% of total operating revenue in 2025. Key factors affecting the operating performance of the mining and processing segment included production and sales volumes of major products, market prices, and costs of non-ferrous metal and precious metal mining and processing operations. Regarding the business plan, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: 2026 is the concluding year of the company's "Second Three-Year" plan. The Board of Directors will closely focus on the theme of high-quality development, fully implement established work objectives, continue to deepen the philosophy of "Trust and Collaboration," and make an all-out push to achieve the closing targets of the "Second Three-Year" plan, with emphasis on the following areas of work: 1. Uphold the bottom line of safety and environmental protection. Using 2026 as the "Year of Safety Management Implementation," the company will comprehensively enforce safety responsibilities, consolidate the achievements of the "Year of Collective Safety Vigilance," strengthen risk anticipation and process control, resolutely prevent all types of safety and environmental protection incidents, and achieve safe, steady, green, and low-carbon development. 2. Advance key project construction at full speed, strengthen full-process management of project budgets, schedules, and quality, and coordinate the implementation of projects including the 2.97 million mt expansion of Yinman Mining, the 8.25 million mt expansion of Yubang Mining, the Morocco project, and the Budun Yingen Mining (under trusteeship) project, ensuring on-schedule completion, reaching full production, and releasing capacity benefits. 3. Continue to intensify exploration and reserve expansion efforts, properly balance production operations with geological exploration, steadily advance exploration of existing mines and surrounding areas, accelerate the conversion and upgrading of resource volumes, and continuously strengthen the resource foundation. 4. Deepen industrial synergy and resource integration. Leveraging the core regional advantages in Inner Mongolia, the company will steadily expand its resource layout outside China; adhering to silver and tin as the main business direction, it will enrich and optimize resource varieties. The company will solidly advance the subsequent acquisition and integration of Weiling shares, actively track quality mineral project opportunities in and outside China, and enhance overall competitiveness through synergistic industrial M&A. 5. Further strengthen institutional enforcement and internal control management, drive the effective implementation of various systems, processes, and control requirements, and enhance the company's refined management capabilities; strengthen enforcement capacity building to ensure production plans, comprehensive budgets, and various work deployments are fully implemented, and promote deep integration of corporate culture with business management. 6. Advance Hong Kong stock listing preparations at full speed, accelerate the establishment of a dual capital market platform at home and abroad, enhance cross-border capital operation capabilities, provide stronger financial support for the company's resource integration and strategy implementation, and drive the company's high-quality sustainable development to new heights. Reviewing the 2025 price performance of spot silver: the average price of SMM 1# silver (Ag99.99%) on December 31, 2025 was 18,430 yuan/kg, compared with 7,440 yuan/kg on December 31, 2024, representing an increase of 10,990 yuan/kg, or 147.71%. Recently, spot silver prices have been fluctuating. On May 27, the morning quote for SMM 1# silver (Ag99.99%) was 18,654–18,684 yuan/kg, with an average price of 18,669 yuan/kg, up 0.54% from the previous trading day. Compared with the average price of 18,430 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, the price edged up by 239 yuan/kg, a gain of 1.3%. Regarding the outlook for precious metals, some institutions' views are as follows: FXTM Senior Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga stated: "As hopes for a US-Iran peace deal waver, gold prices have pulled back and are approaching the $4,450 support level. In addition, market expectations for a US Fed rate hike are steadily building amid conflict-driven price pressures, which is also exerting further downward pressure on gold prices." "Ultimately, if more signs emerge that price pressures are rising, it could further reinforce market bets that the US Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer, which would expose gold to greater downside risk." (Jin10 Data APP) CITIC Futures stated: Renewed tensions in US-Iran geopolitics have dampened risk appetite, while rising oil prices have reignited inflation concerns and strengthened market bets on a US Fed rate hike within the year, with multiple factors dragging silver prices lower. On one hand, US economic data still showed resilience, with the latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April at 0.14, significantly better than the previous reading of -0.15. The US May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and Present Situation Index both pulled back from prior readings, but the confidence index still beat market expectations. Combined with renewed US-Iran tensions pushing oil prices higher and sparking inflation concerns, market pricing for a year-end US Fed rate hike has strengthened. On the other hand, spot silver's fundamental drivers remained weak, with London market silver lease rates running at persistently low levels. In the short term, silver is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with overall capital interest still relatively low. Attention should be paid to US-Iran negotiation progress and strait navigation resumption. If US-Iran negotiations progress smoothly, this could drive a short-term silver rebound, but interest rate expectations will continue to suppress the trend. If geopolitical tensions escalate again and push oil prices higher, caution is warranted regarding further medium-term suppression of silver's industrial products elasticity and potential supply disruptions. Over the long term, weakening US dollar credibility, safe-haven demand, and investment demand provide solid support for silver prices. (Jin10 Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report noted that the resilience of the global economy is being tested by the Middle East conflict, with a glimmer of hope for the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The US economy may continue to grow mildly but unevenly this year, the pace of the EU's weak recovery is being delayed, and Japan's private-sector demand will inevitably be disrupted by energy shortages. High oil prices are already pushing up global inflation, with headline inflation rates in Europe and the US likely to fluctuate at highs this year, while Japan's headline inflation rate may continue its mild performance. The US Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year, while potential rate hikes by the ECB and BOJ are imminent, and the "unrestrained" fiscal stance of Japanese and European political circles may constitute a source of market risk this year. We maintain our view that US equities will outperform US bonds and that the US dollar index has support, and gold prices are expected to break free from their predicament as tail risks of inflation dissipate. ANZ analyst Kumar, Soni recently stated that inflation expectations, rising US Treasury yield, and a stronger US dollar are unfavourable factors putting gold prices under pressure. These factors will persist until we can clearly determine how long this conflict will last. Gold has fallen more than 14% since the outbreak of war in late February. OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong stated that since early March, the overall trend of the 10-year US Treasury yield has remained in a medium-term upward phase. Therefore, at this juncture, gold bulls may not be as aggressive in pushing prices higher. Gold is expected to continue weakening over the next few trading days, with resistance at $4,645 and support at $4,456. (Jin10 Data) Goldman Sachs stated that central banks are expected to increase gold purchases, helping gold prices rebound by year-end. Analysts Thomas, Lina and Struyven, Daan stated in a research report published on May 15 that the average monthly central bank gold purchases in 2026 are expected to rise to 60 mt. Based on the revised accumulation model, the 12-month average of central bank gold purchases in March reached 50 mt, compared with a previous figure of 29 mt. Citing internal surveys, the analysts noted that central banks have long-term rigid allocation demand for gold, and recent changes in the geopolitical landscape are likely to continue driving countries to accelerate asset diversification. JPMorgan lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast from $5,708 per ounce to $5,243 per ounce. As demand is expected to re-accelerate in H2 2026, the base case still projects gold prices reaching $6,000/ounce by year-end.
May 27, 2026 19:49Data from the online customs statistics query platform showed that China's imports of tin ore and concentrates in April 2026 totaled 15,720.18 mt, down 15.04% MoM and up 59.25% YoY. China imported 5,677.67 mt of tin ore and concentrates from Myanmar in April, down 22.17% MoM and up 139.38% YoY. China imported 2,879.89 mt of tin ore and concentrates from the DRC in April, up 8.84% MoM and up 3.11% YoY. Exports side, China's exports of tin ore and concentrates in April 2026 totaled 0.01 mt, up 22.22% MoM and up 450.00% YoY. China exported 0.01 mt of tin ore and concentrates to the Netherlands in April, up 250.00% MoM. China exported 0 mt of tin ore and concentrates to the UK in April, down 42.86% MoM and up 100.00% YoY. Below is a breakdown of import data compiled from the General Administration of Customs website: Origin April 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Myanmar 5,677.67 -22.17% 139.38% DRC 2,879.89 8.84% 3.11% Bolivia 2,427.32 -33.01% 198.42% Australia 1,263.60 -19.51% -16.57% Nigeria 1,239.55 -4.85% 14.34% Russia 527.7 689.53% - Malaysia 460.99 89.71% 98.18% Rwanda 263.55 -10.85% 162.18% Laos 162.38 -59.02% 205.02% Vietnam 156.88 139.38% -30.82% Kyrgyzstan 149.38 -15.84% -33.90% Venezuela 143.56 -61.86% 16.64% Brazil 120.39 -31.04% - Thailand 74.34 180.57% 955.38% Colombia 58.8 25.68% 7.08% Indonesia 44.83 -52.31% -51.07% Burundi 26.48 - - Tanzania 23.96 193.87% -50.07% Zambia 17.77 -46.28% -40.09% North Korea 1.16 - - Total 15,720.18 -15.04% 59.25% Data source: General Administration of Customs Below is a breakdown of export data compiled from the General Administration of Customs website: Destination April 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Total 0.01 22.22% 450.00% Data source: General Administration of Customs (Wenhua Consolidated)
May 21, 2026 13:33"Tin" Leads the Future: Industrial Transformation and Value Reshaping in a New Cycle Conference Background Currently, the global tin industry stands at a historic turning point, where traditional cyclical logic has been completely disrupted and strategic value has become fully prominent. The tin market in 2026 presents an unprecedented complex pattern and profound transformation: I. Deep Restructuring of the Supply-Demand Pattern with Unprecedented Enhancement of Strategic Attributes The global tin resource static reserve-to-production ratio is only 14 years, with scarcity becoming increasingly prominent. The supply side faces "triple pressures": repeated setbacks in Myanmar's production resumptions, continued tightening of Indonesian policies, and elevated geopolitical risks in the DRC — resource constraints have become the new normal. Meanwhile, the demand structure has undergone fundamental changes, with tin becoming a strategic resource connecting traditional manufacturing to the digital future. II. Price System Breaking Historical Records with Industrial Ecosystem Facing Reshaping In early 2026, SHFE tin prices broke through 470,000 yuan/mt, hitting a record high. This price breakthrough is not only a reflection of supply-demand imbalance but also a marker of value reassessment for the tin industry. Traditional trade models, risk management systems, and supply chain collaboration methods all urgently require innovative breakthroughs. III. Technology-Driven and Green Transformation Catalyzing a New Symbiotic Ecosystem Digitalization and intelligent technologies are deeply empowering the tin industry chain. The global green transformation requires the tin industry to upgrade toward low-carbonisation and circular economy, with recycled tin recovery and green smelting processes becoming an inevitable path. All segments of the industry chain must shift from competition to collaboration, building an open, resilient, and innovative symbiotic system. Against this backdrop, August 19-21, 2026 in Changsha, Hunan the 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference will bring together global industry elites for joint discussions. Ganzhou Yunsheng Tin Co., Ltd. will attend this grand event, discussing industry development trends with industry peers and jointly driving the tin industry toward new heights. Click the to register immediately, witness and participate in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, and co-create a brilliant new chapter! Ganzhou Yunsheng Tin Co., Ltd. was registered and established in December 2017, with its registered address at the West Zone of the Industrial Management Area, Longling Town, Nankang District, Ganzhou City. The company's main businesses include tin metal processing and sales; non-ferrous metal powder and tin by-product production and sales; metal materials, timber construction and decoration, mineral products, and machinery equipment sales; and import and export business of goods and technologies. Since its official registration and establishment in 2017, the company currently focuses on tin ingot and mineral product sales, vigorously expanding upstream and downstream related industries. Its downstream coverage is extensive, serving quality enterprise clients in solar PV, storage battery, electronic solder, tin chemicals, tinplate, tin plated copper wire, tin alloy, and other sectors. Its business partners are primarily distributed across Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and other regions. Committed to achieving rapid, stable, and healthy development of the enterprise. Ganzhou Yunsheng Tin Industry Co., Ltd. has been engaged in the production and trade of tin and tungsten since 2005 and started tin ingot trade in 2016. Currently, its main business covers the tin raw material industry chain, including tin ore, tin ingots, crude tin, and secondary tin materials. Relying on the business of tin and tungsten production and trade, the company focuses on the trade projects of the tin raw material industry chain, including tin ore, tin ingots, crude tin, and secondary tin materials, and actively expands other new fields and projects. It has established strategic cooperative relationships with domestic ore traders, smelters, logistics and trade agents and service providers, and financial institutions in China. In the future development, the company will innovate trade models, optimize the structure of trade products, and improve the efficiency of the trade process to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. With decades of deep engagement in the tin industry, the company has always adhered to the business principles of people-oriented management and integrity-based operations since its establishment, enabling the enterprise to maintain competitiveness in the fierce market competition and achieve rapid and stable development. Ganzhou Yunsheng Tin Industry Co., Ltd. was registered and established in December 2017, with its registered address at the West District of Longling Industrial Management Zone, Nankang District, Ganzhou City. The company's main business includes tin metal processing and sales; production and sales of non-ferrous metal powder and tin by-products; sales of metal materials, wood for building decoration, mineral products, and mechanical equipment; and import and export of goods and technologies. After its official registration in 2017, the company currently focuses on the sales of tin ingots and mineral products, and is vigorously expanding related upstream and downstream industries. Its downstream coverage is extensive, including high-quality enterprise customers such as solar photovoltaic, storage batteries, electronic soldering, tin chemicals, tinplate, tin-coated copper wire, and tin alloys. The business partners are mainly located in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Guangdong, and Fujian. The company is committed to achieving rapid, stable, and healthy development. Ganzhou Yunsheng Tin Industry Co., Ltd. has been engaged in the production and trade of tin and tungsten since 2005 and started tin ingot trade in 2016. Currently, its main business covers the tin raw material industry chain, including tin ore, tin ingots, crude tin, and secondary tin materials. Relying on the business of tin and tungsten production and trade, the company focuses on the trade projects of tin ore, tin ingots, crude tin, and secondary tin materials, and actively expands other new fields and projects. It has established strategic cooperative relationships with domestic mining companies, smelters, logistics and trade agents, service providers, and financial institutions. In the future development, the company will innovate trade models, optimize the structure of trade products, and improve the efficiency of the trade process to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. The company has been deeply involved in the tin industry for decades. Since its establishment, it has always adhered to the business principle of "people-oriented and integrity-based", enabling the company to maintain its competitiveness in the fierce market competition and achieve rapid and stable development. Contact Information Liao Xiaoyun 13766335535 Long Press to Scan the QR Code and Register Now 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference
May 19, 2026 10:09The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum , organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and sponsored by China Securities International as platinum sponsor, wrapped up successfully at Novotel Hong Kong Century on May 6. With over 300 registrations and 200 on-site attendees, the forum focused on the theme "New Metals Cycle: Prices, Power & Global Wrestling". The event featured keynote speeches by industry experts and SMM analysts, covering base metals, new energy materials, and strategic revaluation of minor and precious metals. Two high-level panel sessions were held, exploring hot topics such as geopolitics, supply-demand fluctuations, CBAM impacts, and market opportunities. It also served as an efficient platform for networking and cooperation across entire industry chains. SMM Opening Address SMM Chairman Adam Fan SMM Chairman Adam Fan stated in the opening address that it was a great honor to gather with elites from all sectors of the industry at this forum. The world is currently at a critical development period, and the exchange of industry ideas is not only an industry necessity but also an inevitable requirement for global development. Adam reviewed the century-long legacy of the London Metal Exchange, which has weathered nearly 150 years of global changes and industry evolution, fully demonstrating that although market structures may change, the fundamental need for risk management and reliable price discovery remains constant. At the same time, Adam candidly acknowledged that global markets are currently mired in a pattern of deep fluctuations. Geopolitical conflicts, supply chain fragmentation, and the compounding crises of energy and food, overlaid with de-globalization and rising trade protectionism, have intensified market uncertainty and inflationary pressures, posing severe challenges to global economic growth and industrial cooperation. Against this backdrop, SMM has steadfastly upheld its mission, refusing to be a bystander to the trend of industry fragmentation, and is committed to serving as a bridge for global industrial connectivity amid a landscape of division. SMM is dedicated to promoting dialogue and exchange, breaking down industry and regional barriers, and bringing together regulators, traders, and producers from around the world to discuss industry development. SMM upholds the principle of information transparency, continuously providing accurate, real-time market data to help the industry see through market fog and clarify market distortions. SMM deepens pragmatic cooperation by building a neutral and professional platform for exchange and matchmaking, driving all parties to pursue collaborative development based on shared interests and transcending political differences. Adam emphasized that information sharing and open collaboration would be leveraged to mitigate market risks and strengthen overall industry resilience, and called on the industry to seize the opportunity of this forum to jointly explore solutions, transforming current challenges into momentum for driving integrated and robust development of the global metals industry. Speech by Platinum Sponsor Wang Guangxue, Member of the Executive Committee of China Securities Co., Ltd. and Chairman of China Securities Futures Co., Ltd. Wang stated that as a vital bridge connecting the capital market and the real economy, China Securities has always been committed to serving the high-quality development of the metals industry. Leveraging the comprehensive financial strengths of CITIC Group, the company has built a full-chain integrated service system covering securities, futures, investment, and research. The company has been deeply engaged in the commodities sector, continuously providing forward-looking research to anticipate market trends, utilizing futures instruments to build robust risk barriers, and empowering industrial upgrading through capital services. It will fully leverage CITIC Group's full-license resource advantages and the strategic value of Hong Kong as an international financial center to continuously strengthen its cross-border comprehensive financial services capabilities. The company aims to tailor integrated risk management and asset allocation solutions at home and abroad for enterprises across the metals industry chain, precisely helping enterprises hedge against price fluctuation risks, and enabling them to operate steadily and advance with high quality in complex market environments. Structural Shifts: Rethinking Commodity Benchmarks in an Era of Persistent Inflation and Rivalry Speaker: Tian Yaxiong, Co-Head of R&D Department, China Securities Futures Tian shared professional research findings and cutting-edge market insights on hot topics including the market outlook for global metals and the deep impact of geopolitics on commodity trends. SMM Industry Analysis: Market Outlook and Pre-seminar Sharing for Base Metals and New Energy Materials (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium, and Tin) & How SMM Empowers Your Commodity Trading & Analysis Speakers: Dr. Yanchen Wang, Managing Director of SMM Global UK Ltd.; Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Analysis at SMM Dr. Wang first analyzed the macroeconomic landscape. At the beginning of this year, the manufacturing PMIs of major economies performed quite well, actually exceeding 50%. Without the conflict, demand this year would have been quite strong. However, at the end of February, the US-Iran conflict broke out, and the International Monetary Fund subsequently revised down its global economic growth expectations. He pointed out that China's exports remain one of the three pillars that are still functioning well to date. Regarding automobile consumption, he noted that for the EV market, the positive factor for the auto industry also lies in exports. In Q1 this year, export performance was indeed very strong. If you look at EV exports alone, they actually grew nearly 160% YoY. Driven mainly by growth in global markets, he remains optimistic about the auto industry this year. In Europe, gasoline and diesel prices have risen significantly due to the US-Iran conflict, and EV demand is expected to benefit from this factor. He believes the power sector continues to maintain strong growth. Based on power grid and power generation investment data from the first two months, combined with State Grid Corporation of China's earlier announcement that fixed asset investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, this indicates that electricity demand will drive strong growth. State Grid Corporation of China will build more ultra-high voltage transmission projects, which will undoubtedly support aluminum demand and also copper demand. Aluminum: Wang noted that base metal prices experienced wild swings since the beginning of this year. He also discussed that China's aluminum smelters continued to raise operating rates due to favorable profitability; aluminum demand pulled back in Q1, and high prices drove inventory higher; approximately 950,000 mt of new aluminum smelting capacity in Indonesia may come online in 2026, with some investors watching Angola; and aluminum semis and wheel hub exports maintained growth in Q1. Copper: After copper prices experienced a pullback and adjustment in March, downstream procurement demand in China was rapidly released, providing strong support for copper prices to rebound. Copper prices rose sharply, with the market downplaying geopolitical risks. China's copper cathode demand was robust, and inventory continued to decline. China's copper scrap market was not truly facing a spot shortage issue. The outlook for copper cathode demand is positive. China remains dependent on copper concentrate imports. Spot copper concentrate TCs showed no signs of bottoming out. By-product revenue sustained smelter profits. He also analyzed the DRC sulphuric acid market conditions, the expected slowdown in global refined production growth, and how a refined market supply deficit should support higher copper prices. He also mentioned that the AI industry maintained strong development momentum, bringing new growth momentum to copper demand. Tin: He elaborated from the following perspectives: Myanmar tin production — slow recovery, upward trajectory, 2025-2027E; Indonesia tin ore RKAB quotas — expected to ease slightly in 2026; DRC — major mine production remained stable, but the M23 movement added uncertainty; global tin prices — supply determines the floor, macro factors drive fluctuations; the global tin market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with new mining capacity expected to be concentrated for release in 2028. Thomas Feng shared insights on nickel, cobalt, and lithium: emerging from the trough and entering a new cycle. ►New energy demand landscape: from EV popularization to energy storage deployment. First, he reviewed and provided an outlook on the global NEV market: NEV demand no longer maintains a one-sided high-growth trajectory, but instead exhibits characteristics of regional differentiation, structural divergence, and intensifying cyclical volatility; development paces in China, Europe, and the US have shown notable differences; performance trends of BEVs, PHEVs, and commercial vehicles have diverged; and the impact of inventory and price cycles on industry operations is increasing significantly. Second, in his review and outlook of the global energy storage market, he noted that the global energy storage market will remain concentrated in three key regions: China, the US, and Europe. Driven by 2030 climate goals, emerging markets such as the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia are showing strong growth in demand for large-scale energy storage. Benefiting from cost advantages and improved safety performance, LFP battery market share is expected to continue climbing. ►Lithium: Reshaping the Supply-Demand Pattern in a New Cycle Global lithium carbonate market: shifting from overall surplus to structural tightness, with prices in a post-trough reassessment and recovery phase. Lithium hydroxide supply and demand maintained a tight balance: production on the supply side was driven by demand, the market share of ternary power batteries was squeezed, and room for growth was limited. The concentration of lithium resource supply declined, with marginal growth rates slowing down simultaneously. Significant demand growth drove the continued expansion of resource projects. ►Nickel: Navigating Policy Changes and Narrowing Oversupply Indonesia's nickel ore HPM adjustment: aimed at enhancing the economic value of non-nickel resources. The discussion covered scenario analysis of nickel ore prices following the implementation of the new policy, and the impact analysis of nickel ore benchmark price adjustments on MHP full costs. Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota: a tight balance is expected to set the tone for 2026. Global primary nickel is expected to remain in persistent oversupply. Regarding the logic behind refined nickel price trends, it was noted that policy and macro factors jointly amplified price fluctuations, while cost support elevated the long-term price floor. ►Cobalt: Shifting from Surplus to Shortage after the DRC Export Ban——Long-Term Uncertainty Remains Following the DRC policy announcement, cobalt product prices in China rose rapidly. However, high prices suppressed downstream demand, putting prices under pressure. Starting from H2 2025, the Chinese market continued destocking. Amid raw material shortages, enterprises began using MHP and recycled materials as production substitutes. MHP and recycling are expected to continue growing rapidly, effectively bridging the cobalt hydroxide gap. Cost pressure transmitted in both directions: LCO doping/ternary substitution restarted, and consumer cobalt demand is expected to decline by 10%. As persistently high cobalt prices suppress demand, if China secures 90% of the DRC quota, supplemented by MHP and recycling supply, inventory buildup could occur as early as 2026. Panel Discussion: Global Metals Market Outlook——Geopolitics Disruption, Macro Cycles and the Return of Commodity Volatility •Copper and Aluminum Price Rise, 2024-2026 •Precious Metals Storm: Silver Swung Wildly, Gold Hit Record Highs — Interest Rate Cycles, Safe-Haven Demand, and Industrial Logic •Precious Metals and Industrial Metals: Are Commodities Entering a New Cycle •Focus on Critical Minerals: Emerging Region Supply Rise and Policy Shifts, Green Transition Co-Shaping a New Narrative •Chinese Market: The 15th Five-Year Plan Moderator: Yanchen Wang, Managing Director, SMM Global UK Ltd. Panelists: Yahong Tian, Co-Head of R&D, CITIC Futures Henry Van, Head of Industrial Metals Analysis, Trafigura Sharon Ding, Head of China Basic Materials, UBS Justin William Hughes, Commodity Derivatives Distribution, Optiver Xie Shaobo, Head of China, Appian Mining Fund & independent non-executive Director, Zijin Gold International Panelists noted aluminum has great upside—its 10% price rise lags its 4%-5% supply contraction (vs. oil’s 60% price surge on 10% supply drop), with valuation recovery incomplete. They were more optimistic about copper demand, driven by real downstream demand rather than speculation; aluminum semis’ upside is underappreciated due to high oil prices. Long-term, copper and gold are key for mining investment, with scarce high-quality copper mines and solid gold fundamentals. They also discussed US tariffs, China’s metal demand resilience and overseas mining investment. Overseas mining success hinges on resource-to-reserve certainty; West Africa, Latin America, DRC and Zambia are new hotspots, while Australian/Canadian listed miners are undervalued. Enterprises must plan prudently based on risk tolerance. Geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Iran) may trigger energy crises, but current inflation control and China’s high metal consumption share weaken demand impact. Long-term, energy crises will boost electrification, expanding copper/aluminum demand. Investment depends on risk appetite and fundamental grasp. SMM Industry Analysis: Strategic Re-valuation of Minor Precious and Minor Metals in 2026 — The Case of Silver and Tungsten Silver: Market Supply-Demand Balance and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evolution and Shift in Industrial Demand, Particularly Driven by the PV Sector Tungsten: Strategic Status Upgrade - Supply Constraints and High-End Demand Driving the 2026 Price Rally Speaker: Juno Zhu, Senior Analyst of Minor and Precious Metals, SMM Juno shared insights on the strategic revaluation of tungsten and silver. Tungsten: Tungsten prices have surged over 500% since 2025; China holds over 50% of global tungsten reserves, contributes nearly 80% of global production, and possesses a complete industrial value chain; China's tungsten supply constraints in 2025: H1 mining quotas declined 6.45% YoY; global new project stagnation: limited capacity expansion in 2026, with ex-China mine development cycles of 3–5 years; domestic tungsten downstream applications: significant growth in cutting tools and PV tungsten wire in 2025; European market: persistent raw material shortages, with Rotterdam tungsten prices surging since February 2025; China's tungsten product exports: transitioning from primary products to deep-processed products; SMM analysis: the tungsten market supply-demand gap is expected to persist but narrow in 2026; prices are expected to consolidate at highs after overheating cools. Silver: Silver price fluctuations in 2026: an unexpected surge from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, where frenzied investment demand and capital liquidity completely overshadowed the impact of the industrial off-season. Shift in trade dynamics in Q1 2026: SGE-LBMA premiums reversal and a surge in imports. Demand spike in Q1 2026: the PV industry started with a recovery, and an investment boom generated a phased demand peak. PV market outlook: policy shifts in 2026 are expected to curb demand growth, with overall silver consumption remaining stable. Silver demand outlook for 2026: industrial fundamentals provide support, while investment surges serve as a tactical highlight. Silver supply outlook for 2026: mild annual growth and an expanding secondary supply share are expected to drive a tight balance in the market. Market outlook: short-term trends are expected to revert to industrial fundamentals, while the medium and long-term trajectory is expected to fluctuate at highs driven by safe-haven demand. Panel Discussion: Metals in a Fragmented World: Trading Opportunities in the Age of Instability (Physical Trading and Hedging) •Shifting Liquidity Landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE •Shipping Risks and Sanctioned Metals: Implications for LME Inventory Structure •How European CBAM is Reshaping Global Metals Trade Flows •Is the Metals Market Entering an "Era of Geopolitical Risk Premiums" •Internationalization of SHFE & GFEX: Opportunities and Challenges for Global Investors Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, SMM Panelist: Anant Jatia, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Greenland Investment Management Bella Yu, General Manager of Marketing Department, Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. David Wilson, Director of Commodity Strategy, BNP Paribas Duncan Hobbs, Research Director, Concord Resources Nicholas Snowdon, Head of Metals and Mining Research, Mercuria Energy Trading SA Sabrina Qian, Director of Geared broking desk, IFCHOR GALBRAITHS Anant Jatia stated: CBAM represents a major policy shift in Europe's metals sector. It is not merely about raising trade costs, but will profoundly reshape global metal trade flows and pricing logic. CBAM officially took effect in January this year, initially covering categories such as steel and aluminum semis, with its core mechanism incorporating carbon emission intensity costs into Europe's metal pricing system. High-carbon-emission producers will need to bear additional carbon allowance costs, significantly weakening their export competitiveness to Europe, while green capacity powered by clean energy will gain a clear advantage in the European market and capture greater market share. Following the policy's implementation, the landed cost of metals in the European market will rise, sustaining a long-term regional premium similar to the aluminum premium structure in the US market. Compared with the market differentiation among LME-registered brands following CBAM's implementation, what deserves more attention are the entirely new market opportunities it creates. By sourcing low-carbon, high-quality materials, market participants can potentially capture green premiums, while the mechanism will also transform metal trading models and the global trade flow landscape. The panelists also discussed the changing liquidity landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE. They noted that liquidity in the commodity market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with copper and other products now tradable across multiple global futures exchanges. Price discovery is no longer concentrated in a single market, and the traditional pattern of one market leading gains and others following has reversed, with multi-exchange rotation driving price movements becoming the norm. Factors such as geopolitical policies and tariff adjustments have given rise to regional pricing divergence, with price movements in some markets increasingly driven by capital flows and sentiment. Policy and geopolitical events have also significantly affected the spread between futures and spot prices of metals, creating opportunities for cross-market arbitrage. Meanwhile, policies related to critical minerals supply security, regional supply shocks, and geopolitical disruptions have widened the dislocation between regional fundamentals and price signals. The metals market has entered a window of structural arbitrage opportunities, and this trend is expected to persist. Cross-market arbitrage continues to provide liquidity support to exchanges, a phenomenon broadly observed across both industrial and precious metals. In addition, the panelists engaged in in-depth discussions on the differences between exchange liquidity and industrial liquidity, as well as factors influencing metal price trends, including fundamentals, geopolitical developments, energy costs, and commodity transportation costs. Opening Remarks for Coffee Break Xu Tao, CEO of CSCI In his address, Xu Tao stated that Hong Kong serves as a vital hub in the global metals pricing and trading system, playing a key role in the aggregation of LME delivery resources and the internationalization of RMB-denominated commodities. Going forward, China Securities International will continue to leverage its role as a bridge for cross-border business, deepen collaboration with CSC Futures, and provide clients at home and abroad with efficient and professional comprehensive financial services in commodities, contributing to a higher level of opening-up of China's financial markets. Networking (Coffee Break) Acknowledgments The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum was successfully held with special thanks to the Platinum Sponsor, China Securities International, for its strong support, as well as sincere gratitude to Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. for its significant contribution to the forum. Going forward, China Securities and China Securities International will continue to leverage the unique geographical and resource advantages of Hong Kong as an international financial center, deepen strategic cooperation with authoritative industry platforms such as SMM, and continuously improve the "onshore + offshore" integrated bulk commodity comprehensive service system, precisely empowering enterprises to seize market opportunities and hedge operational risks, contributing professional expertise to advancing the internationalization of China's bulk commodity market and enhancing the industry's global competitiveness. Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. (formerly Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center) has been engaged in new energy materials and critical metals supply chain services for over 20 years. Through its digital platform and offline service network, the company provides upstream and downstream clients with full-process online services including price negotiation, contract signing, contract execution, payment settlement, cargo delivery, processing, quality inspection, and after-sales services. With transparent pricing, 100% fulfillment guarantee, and strict quality control, it has established stable cooperation with over 30,000 industrial clients. In the field of critical strategic metal resources, Unilink has built a supply chain service system covering 14 critical metal varieties including indium, bismuth, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Spot delivery volumes of indium and bismuth each account for over 90% of China's consumption. For new energy materials, spot delivery volumes of nickel, cobalt, and lithium on Zhonglian Jin's platform account for 30%, 90%, and 20% of China's consumption respectively, while daily sulfur trading volume exceeds 80,000 mt. Unilink implements a service model of "payment upon delivery, cargo pick-up upon payment," effectively shortening delivery cycles, reducing enterprise operating costs, and helping upstream and downstream clients achieve stable and efficient material scheduling. Zhonglian Jin strictly adheres to national industrial policies and resource management requirements, consistently focusing on serving the real economy, fully ensuring the security and smooth operation of bulk commodity supply chains, and promoting efficient resource allocation. It has ranked among China's Top 500 Service Enterprises and China's Top 20 Growing Internet Enterprises for two consecutive years. With that, the 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum came to a successful conclusion! Thank you for your help and support for this forum~
May 14, 2026 13:22Russian producer Seligdar released its Q1 2026 production results, with tin concentrates production up 10% YoY to 921 mt. More than half of the tin concentrates production came from the Solnechny Production Complex, whose production was up 8% compared to the same period in 2025. Although tin ore mining volume declined 10% to 264,000 mt in Q1, ore processing volume (including pre-concentration through XRT sorting) remained flat compared to the previous period at 279,000 mt.
May 13, 2026 15:58[Tungsten News Flash] SMM May 13: On May 12, a Yunnan miner auctioned 730 dmt of crude tungsten-tin ore (WO₃ 2.84%; Sn 2.28%), with final transaction prices of 535,000 yuan/mt for tungsten and 319,800 yuan/mt Sn for tin.
May 13, 2026 10:35