In June, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up, driving the US dollar index up more than 2% for the month. This coincided with the electronics industry entering the traditional off-season and weak end-use demand, while doubts lingered over the sustainability of the AI sector rally. Profit-taking on earlier high-price positions intensified, and these combined factors dragged tin prices lower. SHFE tin fell 7.08% in June, while LME tin dropped 6.68% over the same period. Since the start of July, comments from Warsh at the Sintra Forum that "inflation expectations have declined over the past four weeks, and inflation risks have also diminished," together with US June non-farm payrolls data missing expectations, have cooled market expectations for US Fed rate hikes. At the same time, tech stocks rebounded. These multiple positive drivers pushed tin prices to drift higher in early July. As of around 16:51 on July 6, LME tin was up 1.26% to $52,970/mt, with its month-to-date July gain at 2.56%; SHFE tin was up 3.09% to 410,360 yuan/mt, with a 5.4% month-to-date rise. Spot Market Tin prices fell over 8% in June; spot prices rose for consecutive days in July but wait-and-see sentiment prevails Spot tin prices: SMM #1 tin spot price rose for four consecutive days, with the July 6 quote at 406,900-415,300 yuan/mt and the average price at 411,100 yuan/mt, up 2.96% from the previous trading day. As tin prices rebounded, wait-and-see sentiment intensified in the spot market. Only some rigid demand purchases were made, and overall market trading activity was subdued. Looking at the monthly trend, the average spot price of SMM #1 tin stood at 387,800 yuan/mt on June 30, compared with 425,000 yuan/mt on May 29—a drop of 37,200 yuan/mt, or 8.75%, in just over a month. Notably, as tin prices fell to around 380,000 yuan/mt, downstream restocking demand saw a phase of release. Fundamentals ►Production: Refined tin production edged up MoM in June According to SMM data based on market communication, China's refined tin production edged slightly higher MoM in June 2026, with overall output remaining relatively stable. The slight rise in June refined tin production was driven by two main factors. Supply side, raw material availability showed marginal improvement: earlier overseas tin ore import increases became more evident, and while production resumptions at Myanmar mines were slow, ore continued to flow out, somewhat easing tightness in domestic raw materials. On the other hand, rising arrivals of imported ore at ports drove smelting TCs higher, bringing a phase of relief to the prolonged raw material tightness and creating conditions for smelters to raise operating rates and boost output. However, subsequent production expansion faces multiple constraints: May to July is the traditional rainy season in Myanmar, which limits open-pit mining operations and ore transportation, leading to expectations of a MoM pullback in short-term imported ore arrivals. Overall, the refined tin supply-side is marginally loose at the current stage, but downstream industries are entering the traditional consumption off-season. With both supply and demand weakening, output is unlikely to see a significant surge in the short term. ► Imports: Tin ore imports rose both YoY and MoM in May, with imports from Myanmar surging 384.5% YoY. China's tin ore imports in May were 16,800 mt (equivalent to about 6,408 mt in metal content), up 7.07% MoM and 25.61% YoY, an increase of 1,221 mt in metal content from April (which was equivalent to about 5,187 mt in metal content). Cumulative imports from January to May were 85,900 mt, up 71.41% YoY. China's tin ingot imports in May were 1,838 mt, down 34.4% MoM and 11.46% YoY, with cumulative imports from January to April at 11,196 mt, up 17.75% YoY. Trade data for the tin industry chain from 2025 to May 2026 show the global tin market's supply-demand pattern is undergoing significant structural adjustment, characterized by accelerating supply recovery from overseas mines, easing domestic raw material supply pressure, and downstream smelting increasing supply due to lower raw material costs, while weak overseas demand hinders exports. On the raw material supply side, cumulative tin ore imports from January to May 2026 reached 85,998 mt, surging 71.41% YoY, with May imports alone at 16,831 mt, up 7.07% MoM and soaring 25.61% YoY. This strong rebound was mainly driven by the recovery of Myanmar ore, with tin ore imports from Myanmar reaching 6,634 mt in May, surging 384.5% YoY, and cumulative YoY growth from January to May soaring to 203.49%; in contrast, while tin ore imports from countries outside Myanmar maintained a cumulative positive growth of 34.72%, May single-month volumes still fell 15.23% YoY, indicating a relatively moderate supply recovery from non-Myanmar sources. ► Inventories: SMM weekly tin ingot social inventory across three regions declined for four consecutive weeks. China tin ingot social inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of July 4, 2026, total tin ingot social inventory across three regions in China stood at 7,299 mt, down sharply by 1,374 mt from 8,673 mt the previous week (June 26), a decline of 15.84% WoW. Looking at the trend, since hitting a near-term peak of 13,604 mt in early June, China's tin ingot social inventory has declined for four consecutive weeks, with cumulative destocking over the past month reaching as high as 46.4%. The destocking slope exhibited a "gradual then steep" pattern, and the current inventory level has pulled back to a year-to-date low, signaling marked marginal improvement in the market supply-demand pattern. By region, inventory in Shanghai dropped to 3,750 mt, a weekly decline of 996 mt, contributing 72.5% of the total weekly destocking and making it the dominant force in this round of destocking, reflecting accelerated trade flows in east China and a substantial rebound in downstream purchase willingness. Inventory in Guangdong also declined to 3,449 mt, down 378 mt WoW, accounting for 27.5% of total destocking, confirming that downstream rigid demand in south China, represented by solder enterprises, remained resilient and the pace of stockpiling accelerated. Analyzing the underlying logic, on the one hand, it was driven by restocking after price pullbacks. The dampening effect of previously high tin prices on downstream purchases gradually faded as prices returned to rational levels recently, and pent-up rigid orders were released in a concentrated manner, accelerating the digestion of visible inventory. LME tin inventory: On June 30, LME tin inventory data stood at 8,575 mt, compared to 8,850 mt on May 29, indicating that LME tin inventory declined in June. SMM Outlook On the macro front, a number of macro events in and outside China will continue to disturb tin price movements in July. Outside China, key focus will be on US CPI and PCE inflation data, as well as the US Fed's interest rate meeting at month-end. Earlier, Walsh said that inflation risks have receded, and coupled with the June non-farm payrolls data falling short of expectations, market bets on rate hikes have temporarily cooled. If subsequent inflation data rebounds again and the Fed releases a hawkish tone, a stronger US dollar will suppress tin price trends; conversely, if easing expectations continue, they will provide valuation support for tin prices. At the domestic level, the central bank increased liquidity injections, ultra-long-term special government bonds were steadily implemented, and stimulus policies related to technological transformation of high-end manufacturing and equipment renewal gradually took effect, which are positive for the consumption of tin downstream industries such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy in the medium and long term. However, the weak pattern of the electronics industry during the off-season is hard to reverse quickly in the short term, and the pace of policy dividend releases regarding domestic demand will directly determine the intensity of downstream spot restocking. Fundamentals: On the supply side, the overall tight supply situation of tin ore remained unchanged, but marginal increase signals increased. Smelters maintained stable production with no large-scale production cuts for the time being. On the demand side, entering the traditional consumption off-season, downstream solder enterprises were generally cautious in procurement, and the market relied solely on rigid demand purchases, with high prices significantly dampening purchase willingness. On the inventory side, tin inventories both in and outside China maintained a destocking trend, providing inventory support for tin prices. In summary, changes in macro expectations combined with the performance of the technology sector will affect the fluctuation range of tin prices. Tight ore supply and low overall inventory formed strong fundamental bottom support, acting as a floor for tin prices. However, the sluggish demand during the current off-season will continue to drag on futures, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Looking ahead, it is crucial to closely track US Fed policy direction, the sentiment of the semiconductor industry chain, and continuously monitor the pace of destocking in and outside China. Only when there is a substantial recovery in demand can it provide new upward driving force for tin prices. Recommended reading:

After the Lantern Festival, the operating rate of copper cathode rod was the first to rebound continuously, driving a gradual recovery in downstream consumption and pushing social inventory to officially enter a destocking channel from mid-March. However, as copper prices have recently rebounded and risen, downstream procurement sentiment has become more cautious, the pace of destocking has slowed somewhat, and the growth in the operating rate of copper cathode rod has also narrowed accordingly. Operating Rates Rose First, and the Inventory Inflection Point Emerged as Expected After the Chinese New Year, copper prices pulled back in phases, effectively boosting downstream restocking willingness. According to SMM, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises was the first to respond, showing a WoW upward trend for several consecutive weeks. As of the latest data, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises further climbed to 83.17, reflecting the continued release of end-use demand. Driven by the continued rise in operating rates, downstream procurement gradually increased in volume, and rigid-demand orders were steadily placed. As a result, copper inventories in major regions nationwide ended their sustained inventory buildup on March 12, officially marking an inflection point in inventories. Thereafter, the degree of destocking increased week by week, and as of March 26, inventories had declined for three consecutive weeks. With inventories being digested rapidly, the increase in total inventories compared to the same period last year also gradually narrowed from the post-holiday high to 92,900 mt. By region, this round of destocking showed broad-based characteristics. Consumption in Guangdong recovered most notably, coupled with localized tightening on the supply side, and the pace of inventory decline was relatively fast, making it the first to establish a destocking trend; driven by downstream consumption, warehouse withdrawals in Shanghai continued to exceed warehouse inflows, and against the backdrop of normal arrivals of imported and domestic cargoes, inventory steadily pulled back; Jiangsu likewise benefited from the recovery in consumption, jointly driving the rapid drawdown of overall inventory. Copper Price Rebound Curbed Willingness to Chase Gains, Destocking Momentum Weakened Significantly Entering late March, market sentiment shifted. As copper prices rose, downstream enterprises became more cautious, and the previously more active procurement pace slowed down. As of March 30, copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 13.81% WoW. Although the destocking trend continued, the single-week decline had narrowed from 14.54% in the previous week. Regional performance also diverged. In Shanghai, arrivals of imported and domestic cargoes were normal, downstream consumption continued to recover, and inventory steadily destocked; in Guangdong, consumption remained highly robust, and coupled with tight supply, the inventory decline was still considerable; however, in Jiangsu, affected by another rise in copper prices, downstream procurement turned more wait-and-see, the pace of destocking slowed markedly, reflecting that the restraining effect of rebounding prices on demand had begun to emerge. Meanwhile, the upward momentum in the operating rate of copper cathode rod cooled somewhat. SMM expected the operating rate of copper cathode rod to rise to 83.76% this week, up only 0.59 percentage points WoW, in contrast to the pattern of consecutive sharp increases in previous weeks, indicating insufficient willingness among downstream buyers to chase higher prices, with more shifting to just-in-time procurement and adopting a wait-and-see stance toward subsequent copper prices. Market Outlook: Short-Term Destocking Continues as Momentum Gradually Weakens Overall, supply side, imported cargoes continued to arrive, while arrivals of domestic cargoes were relatively limited due to maintenance and other factors, and the overall pattern of tight supply persisted; demand side was more heavily affected by fluctuations in copper prices, with downstream players holding a wait-and-see attitude toward subsequent price trends, making it difficult in the short term to replicate the intensity of the previous concentrated restocking. Social inventory is expected to continue destocking in the short term, but as copper prices remain at a relatively high level, downstream procurement is turning more rational, and destocking momentum is expected to weaken further. As for subsequent market direction, attention still needs to be paid to copper price trends and the actual fulfillment of end-user orders.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract maintains fluctuating trend, overseas inventories accumulation suppresses LME price]

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Supply-Demand Tight Balance Continues, SHFE Tin Fluctuates at Highs Awaiting US Fed Meeting Guidance] At the midday close on October 28, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract 2512 settled at 285,180 yuan/mt, up 0.08% from the previous day. The intraday trend showed rangebound fluctuations at highs, with the trading range concentrated around 284,000-285,500 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, three-month tin on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was quoted at $36,095/mt, a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous day.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Macro Risk-Off Sentiment Dominates Tin Prices Under Pressure, Supply-Demand Weakness Limits Rebound Space] By the midday close, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2511) price weakened significantly, hitting a session low of 280,600 yuan/mt, down about 2.56% from the previous settlement price, and temporarily closed at 281,040 yuan/mt. Overnight, the LME tin 3M contract also came under pressure, settling at $35,350/mt, down 3.99%. Although it rebounded slightly to around $35,600 during today's Asian trading session (up about 0.93%), overall it remained constrained by rising risk-off sentiment on the macro front and fluctuations in the US dollar index.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate at Highs, Low Inventory Continues to Support Tin Prices] On the midday of September 24, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract fluctuated at highs. By the midday close, the most-traded contract was quoted at 271,960 yuan/mt, up 1,710 yuan or about 0.63% from the previous trading day, with the trading range between 269,880 yuan/mt and 272,110 yuan/mt. SHFE tin futures rose with fluctuations after opening today, showing a corrective rebound trend in futures. In external markets, the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price closed up 0.73% overnight at $34,270/mt, an increase of $250 from the previous session. The low inventory situation supported tin prices. During the Asian session, LME tin prices consolidated gains above the $34,000/mt level, showing a tendency to fluctuate upward technically.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Under Pressure in Morning Session, Awaiting Non-Farm Payrolls Data Guidance] At midday on September 5, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract remained under pressure, closing at 271,930 yuan/mt by the lunch break, down 870 yuan (0.32%) from the previous settlement price. The futures moved downwards after a higher opening, initially quoted at 272,300 yuan/mt but struggling to rise thereafter, remaining in the doldrums. Overnight, LME tin fell 0.56% to $34,425/mt with a trading volume of 514 lots, while open interest dropped by 2.25 million to 211.7 million lots, reflecting strong wait-and-see sentiment ahead of key data. LME tin inventories continued rising, reporting 2,195 mt on September 4 (up 30 mt from the prior day), exerting slight pressure on prices. Macro perspective, markets focused on the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data, with August ADP employment adding 54,000 (far below expectations of 65,000), reinforcing expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts in September, though a US dollar rebound weighed on risk assets.