[SMM Data: Complete Summary of SMM March 2026 Import and Export Data] SMM March 2026 import and export data showed: copper cathode net imports were lower YoY; primary aluminum imports reached 255,000 mt, up 14.8% YoY; refined lead imports surged significantly; zinc ingot imports were up 220% MoM; tin ore imports were up 122% YoY; silver imports were up 93% MoM; steel exports rebounded MoM; PV module export value was up 122.7% MoM; silicon metal exports were up 43% MoM, and magnesium exports hit a multi-year high. Among new energy materials, exports of LiPF6 and artificial graphite surged significantly.

Data from the online customs statistics query platform showed that China's refined tin imports in March 2026 were 3,287.47 mt, up 51.62% MoM and up 56.50% YoY. China imported 2,169.43 mt of refined tin from Indonesia in March, up 43.67% MoM and up 28.35% YoY. China imported 525.49 mt of refined tin from Peru in March, up 50.20% MoM and up 425.19% YoY. Export side, China's refined tin exports in March 2026 were 2,191.46 mt, up 80.25% MoM and up 31.01% YoY. China exported 1,234.01 mt of refined tin to Hong Kong in March, up 208.66% MoM and up 2,143.13% YoY. China exported 285.1 mt of refined tin to South Korea in March, up 49.80% MoM and up 106.55% YoY. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Week Tin Prices in and outside China Showed Wild Swings, Dominated by Repeated Shifts in Macro Sentiment]

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Both Macro and Fundamental Performances Stabilized, Tin Prices Continued Wild Swings Fluctuating Trend in the Morning]

【SMM Analysis: Copper Wire and Cable Exports Surged YoY in December, Philippine Market Rose to Second Place】According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of wires and cables totaled 277,400 mt in December 2025, up 1.38% MoM and 13.38% YoY. Among them, exports of copper wire and cable reached 140,500 mt in December, up 2.13% MoM and 30.8% YoY......

[SMM Weekly Review of ESS Battery Cell Market] Domestic demand for utility ESS has concluded in phases, with the price center pulling back slightly. Meanwhile, the temporary reduction in US tariffs has boosted export sentiment, providing some short-term support for prices. The market is exhibiting a structural game of "cooling domestically and warming externally.

On June 2 (Monday), industry experts stated that Indonesia's progress in converting illegal tin mining assets into legal and productive operations could help alleviate the global supply tightness of this battery metal. The growing popularity of electric vehicles (EVs) has increased demand for tin, a negative electrode material that enhances the performance of lithium-ion batteries. Indonesia is the world's second-largest producer of refined tin, but illegal mining has been a major issue in the industry. According to local media reports, in April this year, Indonesian authorities seized five smelters suspected of involvement in illegal mining. These smelters will now be managed by the state. The Attorney General's Office stated that the seizure was not intended to halt tin ore exploration, and it is expected that mining operations will resume soon under new management. The crackdown on illegal mining has constrained Indonesia's 2024 production, exacerbating global supply tightness. Experts told S&P Global Commodity Insights that the expected restart of smelters would help increase supply to the tight market. "We are currently seeing a recovery in Indonesia's production... We expect this recovery to continue into 2025 and beyond," Freddie Mitchell, a market intelligence analyst at the International Tin Association (ITA), said in an email. According to the ITA, the seized smelters accounted for half of the country's refining capacity. ITA data shows that due to the seizures, Indonesia's refined tin production in 2024 fell by 30.7% to 49,900 mt, the lowest production level in over two decades. Before authorities tightened scrutiny of the industry, the country's annual refined tin production reached at least 72,000 mt in 2019 and from 2021 to 2023. The ITA expects that with the conclusion of the Indonesian government's investigations, Indonesia's refined tin production will rise to 57,000 mt in 2025. Inav Haria Chandra, a research analyst at PT OCBC Sekuritas Indonesia, said that Timah controls over 90% of Indonesia's permitted tin mining areas, but for years the company's production has only accounted for 30% to 40% of Indonesia's tin exports. Changes are imminent in Indonesia's tin industry. The government has also expanded the SIMBARA tracking platform to include tin, aiming to trace the origin of this mineral from mine to export. "This is the toughest action we've seen in years, and the government has started cleaning up the industry," Inav said. However, it is still too early to say whether Indonesia can completely eliminate illegal tin mining. "The government's recent crackdown is a positive step," Thomas Radityo, an equity research analyst at Ciptadana Capital in Indonesia, said in an email. "However, for these efforts to have a lasting impact, sustained and effective enforcement will be crucial, which has historically been a challenge." Despite the expected recovery of Indonesia's supply, regulatory hurdles have limited producers' ability to increase production. The new RKAB system, under which the Indonesian government approves domestic mining production and sales quotas, has strengthened oversight of miners but also slowed down the approval process. Indonesian miners are also reconsidering new investments due to rising costs caused by recent increases in mineral royalties. It is expected that developments in Indonesia will exacerbate volatility in the tin market. Amid this volatility, the ITA forecasts a 7,600 mt supply deficit in the global refined tin market in 2025. Mitchell from the ITA said, "Despite the recovery of Indonesia's supply, there are still supply disruptions elsewhere." (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Weak supply and demand in fundamentals, short-term fluctuations in tin prices, "waiting for the wind" - macro factors may become the key to breaking the deadlock!

[SMM Monthly Outlook: LME and SHFE Tin Prices Decline for Two Consecutive Months; With Intensified Macroeconomic Game, the Pace of Production Resumptions in Major Producing Regions Becomes the Core Variable Affecting Tin Price Trends] Unlike the sharp decline in tin prices in April, tin prices in May generally fluctuated rangebound. As May month-end approached, despite the short-term tight supply situation of tin ore not yet improving, market expectations for supply recovery due to the gradual resumption of production at tin mines in Myanmar's Wa region and the DRC increased. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding the US tariff policy led to a cooling of market risk appetite, resulting in a significant correction in tin prices. As of around 18:10 on May 30, LME tin fell by 1.56% to $30,750/mt, with a temporary monthly decline of 1.91% in May; SHFE tin dropped by 2.87% to 250,300 yuan/mt, with a monthly decline of 4.39% in May.

According to data from China Customs, China's refined tin imports reached 1,128 mt in April 2025, up 53.69% YoY and down 46.30% MoM. The import window gradually opened after late April, with some traders locking in orders on the futures market. However, due to the short time frame, the imports would mostly arrive in May. China exported 1,638 mt of refined tin in April, down 14.84% YoY and 2.15% MoM. Due to differences in trade modes, it can be seen that the refined tin exports in April mainly came from Processing with Imported Materials, with exports down 0.53% MoM from March. The refined tin was mainly exported to countries and regions such as Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea, India, and Thailand, with the main destinations being refined tin consumption areas. The net refined tin exports in April were 510 mt, and the cumulative net refined tin exports from January to April 2025 were 382 mt. Data source: General Administration of Customs