June 26, at the 2026 SMM (14th) Minor Metal Industry Conference—Antimony Industry Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM) and with title sponsorship from Guangxi Yusheng Germanium High-tech Co., Ltd., , Luo Chengcai, General Manager of Hunan Hsikwangshan Twinkling Star Antimony Import & Export Co., Ltd., shared with participants the “Path of Transformation and Development for the Antimony Industry Amid Century-Long Changes.” I. Reshaping the Antimony Industry Landscape Amid Century-Long Changes Policy-driven: Export Controls Trigger Profound Market Fragmentation ►Markets outside China: Rapid Capacity Expansion Driven by High Prices Mine supply growing rapidly: The Santar mine in Myanmar has become a key variable, with monthly production reaching 1,000 mt of metal content and strong supply resilience. Smelting capacity deployment accelerates: Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Myanmar, and Vietnam are rapidly boosting smelting capacity, with total ex-China capacity already reaching about 40,000 mt/year. Policy-driven: Supply-demand imbalance in the Chinese market Supply side extremely loose: In 2026, imports in the first four months alone have already matched the total for the full year 2025, creating unprecedented supply pressure on the market. Demand side highly competitive: Prices have fallen sharply. Geopolitical shocks: The Middle East war has caused irreversible damage ►Flame retardant industry: Short-term pain Bromine prices surged from 30,000 to 130,000/mt, petrochemical raw material prices jumped over 50%, and poor cost pass-through led to widespread industry losses, with production cuts of around 30%. ►Polyester industry: Under pressure from both costs and production Affected by wild swings in upstream petrochemical raw material prices, the industry's production costs have climbed sharply; with weak end-use demand, it was forced to cut production by about 30%, sharply increasing operating pressure. ►PV glass: Short-term cooling but long-term positive outlook Affected by the cancellation of module export tax rebates and uncertainties in the Indian market, short-term demand has weakened; however, the broader trend of global energy transition remains unchanged, and long-term growth potential persists. II. Opportunities Amid Crisis: New Opportunities for Transformation and Development Solid fundamentals: Consolidation and optimization in traditional sectors ►High-performance flame retardant materials Irreplaceability: Still cannot be effectively replaced in engineering plastics such as ABS and XPS. Market growth: China's annual demand for flame retardants reaches 1.5 million mt, with bromine-antimony flame retardants accounting for 35%, and demand is steadily increasing. ►Polyester industry Core catalyst: Over 90% of polyester units use antimony-based catalysts, securing a solid position. New growth areas: Industrial textiles are growing rapidly in sectors such as medical and new energy, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 10%. ►PV Glass Core Refining Agent: Holding over 80% market share, it delivers high efficiency with controllable costs. Strong Momentum Outside China: Driven by the global energy transition, demand in markets outside China remains robust, with countries such as India and Indonesia building plants on a large scale. Summary: The steady demand structure across the three traditional pillar sectors—flame retardants, polyester, and PV—combined with the continued expansion of emerging markets outside China, forms a solid and reliable foundation for the antimony industry. New Growth Driver: Condensed Matter Batteries, the biggest growth engine going forward ►Technical Pathway: Enterprises such as CATL are planning antimony-based sodium-ion batteries, in which the passenger vehicle segment will use a calcium-antimony composite material as the negative electrode. ►Demand Estimate: CATL has planned 60 GWh of capacity, with 24 GWh allocated to passenger vehicles. Calculated at 1,200 mt of antimony per GWh, annual demand could reach as much as 30,000 mt at full production. This represents a massive potential market. New Growth Driver: Rapid Growth in High-Value Applications ►AI Computing Power: The explosive growth of AI servers and data centers has driven antimony consumption in the semiconductor sector to over 2,000 mt. ►Military Sector: High-purity antimony is a critical material for infrared detection and missile guidance, commanding a price premium of 3 to 5 times. Against a backdrop of geopolitical conflicts, military-related orders surged 80% YoY. ►Lead-Acid Batteries: Used as a lead-antimony alloy in positive electrode grids, antimony significantly enhances battery performance. China's antimony consumption in this segment stands at approximately 13,000–15,000 mt, with global consumption at around 22,000 mt, providing a stable foundation. III. Value Normalization: Future Trends and Strategic Outlook Supply Side: Resource Constraints and Policy Regulation Become the New Normal ►Non-renewable resources and a tight supply are long-term trends China's domestic reserves are depleting and grades are declining, with production falling year by year. Incremental supply from outside China is limited and unstable. ►Domestic production restrictions and resource consolidation are the overriding trends The global static reserve-to-production ratio for antimony is less than 10 years, highlighting its strategic value. Strengthening environmental protection, implementing production restrictions, and promoting resource consolidation are the inevitable path for the nation. Market Mechanisms: Moving Toward Stability and Harmonious Coexistence Conclusions and Outlook • The antimony industry stands at a new historical starting point. Short-term market fluctuations and price pains are the necessary "drastic remedies" during the process of industrial restructuring. • We firmly believe that with the tightening of the supply side, the explosion of emerging demand, and the strategic emphasis at the national level, antimony's strategic value will be fully realized and will eventually return to its intrinsic worth in the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. • Let us join hands and work together to propel the antimony industry toward a new era of stable, balanced, and high-quality development. The antimony industry is bound to have a bright future!

This week (6/22–6/25), the secondary copper rod and copper scrap markets were locked in a deep stalemate, marked by the supply side holding prices firm and holding back from selling, the demand side waiting for further price declines and refraining from purchasing, and persistently sluggish transactions, as copper prices continued to fall and approached the psychological threshold of 100,000 yuan/mt

The SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI average price rose WoW by 0.87 yuan/nickel unit to 1,147 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the Indonesian NPI FOB index average price fell WoW by $0.06/nickel unit to $147/nickel unit.

I. Japan Market This week, Japan MJP aluminum ingot spot premiums showed a continuous downtrend, with the average price at $384/mt on June 19 pulling back to $380/mt by June 26. Although premiums kept dipping, some traders lowered their offers proactively while others held prices firm. The demand side exhibited restocking for rigid demand, with downstream enterprises purchasing as needed. Short-term restocking activity was moderate, but there was no large-scale concentrated stockpiling, and overall purchasing volume was mild. Currently, the market trading pace is slowing down, spot lacks a trend-driven upward driver in the short term, and premiums follow the futures to stay in the doldrums. II. US Market This week, US Midwest DDP aluminum spot premiums edged up, from an average of $110.2/mt on June 19 to $110.35/mt this Friday. US market fundamentals still provided support: two major demand-side increases were being released, with aluminum semis demand for AI computing data centers surging, coupled with the concentrated commissioning of new production lines at NEV manufacturers such as Tesla, steadily boosting aluminum consumption for automotive lightweighting, keeping the digestion pace of domestic aluminum ingots high. The supply side faced constraints, with Middle East geopolitical disturbances disrupting ocean shipments of aluminum ingots, arrivals growth from outside China consistently lagging downstream demand growth, and domestic inventory continuing to destock, supporting premiums to stay high. However, the pressure logic for the outlook is gradually emerging: LME aluminum prices have already fallen to a staged low, cross-regional arbitrage windows remain open, and arrivals of aluminum ingots flowing into the US market will gradually increase. Coupled with this week’s premiums having stopped rising and weakened slightly, the tight supply-demand situation will marginally ease as external supply replenishes. It is anticipated that US spot premiums will stay high but face pressure going forward, with upside room essentially capped and a pullback adjustment possible. III. Thailand Market This week, Thailand spot premiums rose from $320/mt last Friday to $323/mt this Friday. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, some traders raised their offers. However, the upside momentum was weak, and the trading atmosphere remained sluggish. Local downstream users only maintained a hand-to-mouth purchase pattern for rigid demand, with low willingness for large-scale stockpiling. Meanwhile, continuous arrivals of aluminum semis exports from China, with large volumes of low-priced fabricated products flowing into the Southeast Asian end-use markets, directly diverted import orders for primary aluminum ingots and significantly squeezed local aluminum demand. [Data source statement: Other than publicly available information, all data are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are processed by SMM. For reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM

[SMM Aluminum Brief] In the petroleum coke market, domestic refineries were in concentrated maintenance, tightening supply of domestic petroleum coke. Demand-side divergence was evident: downstream carbon enterprises’ just-in-time procurement slightly recovered, and the month-end stockpiling period triggered some restocking demand, providing phased support. However, the anode material industry maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment, slowing the procurement pace of low-sulphur petroleum coke. At the same time, imported coke continued to arrive at ports, offsetting the benefits from tightening domestic supply and significantly curbing upward price momentum. Bullish and bearish factors balanced each other, so the domestic petroleum coke market likely consolidated in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Brief] This week, China’s 97% fluorite wet powder market was stable, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt and price differences across regions. The supply side was constrained by safety and environmental protection checks and insufficient operating rates at small and medium mines. High-grade ore was in tight supply. Additionally, imports from Mongolia declined, spot cargo and enterprise inventories were low, and miners held prices firm with a strong sentiment. Demand-side performance diverged: the refrigerant industry entered the off-season, with hydrofluoric acid plants making just-in-time and contract purchases amid losses; demand from lithium battery electrolytes and electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid remained stable, supporting high-grade fluorite. In the short term, the tight supply situation is unlikely to ease, and import increases will be limited, so fluorite prices are likely to remain generally stable with a slight rise.

SMM June 26: This week, SHFE lead futures pulled back slightly, and secondary crude lead prices weakened in tandem. Smelters, facing widening losses, generally held back from selling, leaving spot order supply tight. Additionally, with the rebound in the SHFE/LME price ratio, imported crude lead generated a small profit. Looking ahead to next week, imported crude lead supply activity is expected to increase, while the tight supply pattern, supported by domestic smelter maintenance and tight raw material supplies, will remain unchanged. Overall, short-term sentiment was suppressed by the off-season, and secondary crude lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

Spot market this week (6.22-6.26), SMM #1 lead price drifted lower, declining for consecutive days initially before rebounding slightly on Friday. Coinciding with the dual periods of mid-year and month-end, downstream battery factories concentrated on inventory counting and account closing, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. Just-in-time procurement was limited, and overall spot order trading remained weak. By region, Henan smelters mainly focused on long-term contract deliveries. Traders' quotes showed significant divergence, with spot orders against the SHFE lead 2607 contract at a discount range of 150-80 yuan/mt. At the weekend, the discount narrowed slightly to 130-100 yuan/mt, and only low-priced cargo saw sporadic transactions. Hunan smelters continued to widen discounts to move goods, with spot order discounts expanding from 30-0 yuan/mt to 80-50 yuan/mt. Small-brand lead discounts reached as high as 100 yuan/mt, and market transactions were limited. Jiangxi smelters had tight supply, and quotations maintained a premium structure throughout, with the premium raised from 80 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt and remaining stable.

[SMM Brass Billet Flash] According to SMM, the days of raw material inventories at sampled enterprises slightly rose to 3.84 days. The tight supply of recycled brass raw materials has not notably eased, and no large-scale restocking has taken place at the raw material side. Amid weak demand, the downstream cargo pick-up has been slow, keeping the days of finished product inventories at sampled enterprises at 5.32 days, with inventory pressure persisting.

This week (6.19-6.25), the operating rate of the brass billet industry was recorded at 50.73%, down 1.44 percentage points WoW, broadly in line with previous expectations. Overall end-use demand remained weak in the off-season this week, with the procurement pace in the home appliance, hardware, and sanitary ware sectors continuing to slow down. Most enterprises relied solely on existing orders in hand to maintain production, and overall market transactions were sluggish. Only after copper prices dropped rapidly towards the end of the week did some downstream wait-and-see sentiment ease slightly, leading to a concentrated release of a small amount of rigid-demand orders. However, the increment was limited and insufficient to reverse the overall weak order trend. Days of raw material inventories at sampled enterprises edged up to 3.84 days. The tight supply of recycled brass raw materials showed no significant easing, and there was no large-scale restocking on the raw material side. Amid weak demand, the pace of downstream cargo pick-up was slow, and days of finished product inventories at sampled enterprises remained at 5.32 days, with inventory pressure still present. Looking ahead to next week (6.26-7.2), demand is expected to see little substantial recovery in the traditional off-season. End-users will likely remain cautious amid copper price fluctuations, making it difficult for orders to rebound significantly. SMM expects that the operating rate of brass billet will edge up by 0.29 percentage points WoW to 51.02% next week, with industry production remaining under pressure at low levels.