As the inaugural year of the "15th Five-Year Plan," 2026 sees the zinc industry undergoing profound transformation against a backdrop of intensifying global macro fluctuations and the deepening of China's high-quality development initiatives. Structural tension has emerged between tight ore supply and the release of smelting capacity; diverging inventory trends inside and outside China reflect a complex supply-demand rebalancing; and technological innovation has become a key driver for resolving bottlenecks and reshaping the competitive landscape. New energy, new-type infrastructure, and other key areas highlighted in the 15th Five-Year Plan are injecting fresh momentum into traditional zinc consumption. Meanwhile, green, low-carbon, and circular economy imperatives, propelled by technological innovation, are accelerating the restructuring of the industry's underlying logic. With the collective support of upstream and downstream enterprises across the zinc industry, industry associations, and relevant stakeholders, SMM 2026 Zinc Industry Conference —held jointly with the 8th Hot-Dip Galvanizing Industry Development and Technology Innovation Forum, the 14th Zinc Salt, Zinc Oxide, and Secondary Zinc Resource Development Forum, and the Foundry Zinc Alloy Development Forum—is about to convene from August 6 to 8 in Qingdao, Shandong. Under the theme "Converging Zinc Momentum, Building the Zinc Industry, Embarking on a New Journey," the conference is driven by the twin engines of macro perspectives and fundamental analysis. Adhering closely to the high-quality development thread of the 15th Five-Year Plan, it focuses on four key dimensions—macro policies, supply-demand patterns, global trade, and technological innovation—aiming to drive cost reduction and efficiency gains through technological breakthroughs, address market volatility through collaborative innovation, and jointly chart a new blueprint for the high-quality, sustainable development of the zinc industry. Weifang Longda Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. will be prominently attending this grand event, joining industry peers to explore development trends and jointly propel the zinc industry to new heights. Click to register now and attend this profoundly significant and far-reaching industry event, joining us in creating a brilliant new chapter! I. Indonesia Plant Location: Kawasan Industri Modern Cikande, Modern Industrial Road, Block W, Number 3, Kecamatan Kibin, Kabupaten Serang, Provinsi Banten. Phase 1 of the base focuses on the production of multiple zinc products, including zinc oxide, zinc alloy, and zinc ingot. Among them, zinc oxide capacity reaches 60,000 mt/year, with commissioning and trial operation scheduled for October 2026. Zinc alloy and zinc ingot production lines are concurrently being established to enhance product supply capabilities. The primary output will be indirect process zinc oxide, ISCC PLUS-certified recycled zinc oxide, and national-standard zinc alloy and zinc ingot, supporting the company's expansion into global markets and extending its global green capacity footprint. II. Vietnam Plant Location: Phuoc Long Industrial Zone, Street No. 1, My An Commune, Tay Ninh Province. The base is being developed in multiple phases. The zinc alloy and zinc ingot project has already commenced operations, with a capacity of 20,000 mt/year. Phase 2 plans for a zinc oxide capacity of 30,000 mt/year, which is expected to be realized in Q1 2027, fully covering the production of all categories—zinc alloy, zinc ingot, and zinc oxide—to complete the overseas product matrix. 3. Two Major Production Sites in China (Integrated Layout) Leveraging profound technical expertise, Longda Zinc Industry’s plant focuses on the production of indirect process zinc oxide and ISCC PLUS certified recycled zinc oxide, with an annual capacity of 60,000 mt. Renowned for consistent quality and excellent performance, its products are widely used in various industrial fields such as rubber tires, paints and coatings, and ceramics, meeting both the demands of traditional industrial production and the stringent standards of high-end manufacturing. The company has built a reliable brand image in the market and, as a participant in standard-setting, contributes practical experience to the industry’s standardized development. Longda New Materials specializes in the resource recovery of zinc-containing solid waste, equipped with mature production processes and a comprehensive supporting system. The site can handle 3 categories of general industrial solid waste containing zinc (hot-dip galvanizing slag, hot-dip silicon-aluminum-zinc slag, tire pyrolysis slag, etc.) and 11 categories of hazardous waste containing zinc (hot-dip galvanizing ash, steel mill ash, steel cord copper mud, etc.), with an annual disposal capacity of 260 kt. Through advanced resource recovery processes, various zinc-containing wastes are harmlessly and efficiently transformed into zinc ingots meeting national standards and zinc alloy products. This model addresses industrial solid waste pollution at the source, reduces reliance on primary ores, and achieves the recycling of zinc resources. Once all four production sites in and outside China are fully operational, the company will achieve scale advantages with an annual capacity of 150 kt for zinc oxide, 100 kt for zinc ingot and zinc alloy, and a stable disposal capacity of 260 kt/year for solid and hazardous waste, further consolidating its industry position in zinc product manufacturing and resource recycling. Contact Yang Wenxue 18053607877 sales@wflongda.com Long-press or scan the code to register now 2026 SMM Zinc Industry Conference

[SMM Analysis] In H1 2026, the core conflict in the LFP cathode material market was not just a simple shift in the supply-demand relationship, but rather a profound tussle involving the top-down transmission of cost pressure and the reshaping of the benefit distribution pattern across the industry chain.

2026 marks the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Against a backdrop of intensifying global macro volatility and deepening high-quality development in China, the zinc industry is undergoing profound changes: tightness at the mine end and the release of smelting capacity create structural tension, the divergence between domestic and overseas inventories reflects the complex dynamics of supply-demand rebalancing, and technological innovation is becoming a key driving force for resolving contradictions and reshaping the landscape. New energy, new-type infrastructure, and other key areas under the 15th Five-Year Plan are injecting new momentum into traditional zinc consumption, while green, low-carbon, and circular economy principles, driven by technological innovation, are accelerating the restructuring of industrial logic. With the joint support of upstream and downstream zinc industry enterprises, industry associations, and various stakeholders, SMM’s 2026 SMM Zinc Conference and the 8th Hot-Dip Galvanizing Industry Development and Technology Innovation Forum, the 14th Zinc Salt, Zinc Oxide, and Zinc Secondary Resources Development Forum, and the Foundry Zinc Alloy Development Forum is about to be held in Qingdao, Shandong, on August 6-8. Under the theme “Gather Zinc Momentum · Build the Zinc Industry · Embark on a New Journey,” the conference is driven by both macro perspectives and fundamental analysis. It closely follows the main thread of high-quality development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on four key dimensions—macro policies, supply-demand patterns, global trade, and technological innovation. By using technological breakthroughs to drive cost reduction and efficiency improvement and leveraging collaborative innovation to address market fluctuations, participants will jointly paint a new blueprint for the high-quality and sustainable development of the zinc industry.‌ Hubei Xinyujing Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. will make a grand appearance at this event, working with industry peers to explore development trends and jointly advance the zinc industry to new heights. Click the to sign up now and attend the conference, and together witness and participate in this significant and far-reaching industry event to create a brilliant new chapter! New-Generation HG High-Efficiency Environmentally Friendly Pickling Additive The company is a national high-tech enterprise, a national technology-based SME, a national “3.15” quality, service, and customer satisfaction integrity enterprise, and a national AAA-level creditworthy unit. It serves as deputy director member unit of the Hot-Dip Committee of the Chinese Society for Corrosion and Protection, vice chairman unit of the Hot-Dip Branch of the China Surface Engineering Association, a member of the Asia Pacific Galvanizing Association, vice president unit of the Chengdu Surface Engineering Association, and a member of the Green Low-Carbon City Construction Industry Alliance. Over the past 24 years, the company has made outstanding contributions to advancing pickling technology, reducing consumption and emissions, and protecting the environment in China, and has won numerous awards. Chairman Wang Jianguo was honored with the China Galvanizing Industry Outstanding Contribution Award. The HG High-Efficiency Environmentally Friendly Pickling Additive ranks first in reputation and market share in China, serving over 600 clients across various industries both domestically and overseas, and is exported to Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and other Southeast Asian regions. It is the leading brand of acid pickling additive products in China. In response to the current new market environment demands, our products embody 24 years of accumulated expertise, featuring all-new formulations, all-new effects, a complete upgrade, lower dosage, better performance, and the best overall benefits! They also achieve customized requirements tailored to different industries and processes, creating products suited to various user needs. At the same time, we have developed a product series suitable for different industries using acid pickling processes. ◆ Contact Information ◆ Head Office Address: No. 77 Chuangye Road, Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone Production Address: No. 19 Xingsheng Road, Macheng Industrial Park, High-tech Zone, Jingmen City, Hubei Province Fax: 027-84259483 Tel: 027-84259589 Mobile: 1370-7193886 E-mail: whxxkj@163.com Official Website: www.027xxkj.com www.whxxkj.cn Long press to scan the code and register now 2026 SMM Zinc Industry Conference

IIn June 2026, POSCO held a completion ceremony for its Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) at the Gwangyang steelworks on South Korea's southern coast, approximately 360 kilometers from Seoul, and has initiated the full-scale production of low-carbon steel. With an annual designed capacity of 2.5 million tons , this EAF is the largest single facility of its kind in South Korea. This marks POSCO's first large-scale upstream steelmaking investment in over two decades, signaling the beginning of a structural adjustment to its blast furnace-centric production system. Against the backdrop of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entering its definitive payment stage and the tightening of Phase 4 of the Korea Emissions Trading Scheme (K-ETS), the strategic significance of this project outweighs the sheer capacity itself. Project Details & Commissioning Timeline The special significance of this project lies in its time span: since the blow-in of Blast Furnace No. 5 at the Gwangyang plant in April 2000, POSCO had not invested in major upstream steelmaking capacity for over 20 years. This pivot to EAFs represents the first directional shift in its blast furnace-centric hot metal production system in half a century. Regarding technical configuration, the EAF primarily utilizes steel scrap as its raw material, substituting the traditional iron ore-coke reduction route of the blast furnace through scrap melting. This shift achieves up to 75% CO2 emission reductions compared to traditional blast furnaces. The core equipment is supplied by Italy's Tenova, featuring the Consteel continuous scrap charging system and the Consterrer electromagnetic stirring system. POSCO also utilizes the off-gas generated during EAF operations to preheat the scrap, thereby enhancing energy efficiency. The completion ceremony was attended by South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and POSCO Group Chairman Jang In-hwa. Key Timeline Market Impact Post-Commissioning In the short term, the direct market impact of this EAF is relatively mild; its value is predominantly structural and strategic. This can be analyzed through three key threads: raw materials, products, and regulations. Scrap Market — Gradual demand release, but with a cautious pace: In the initial stage of commissioning, POSCO plans to primarily consume internally generated scrap at the Gwangyang plant, keeping external purchases limited; the company estimates external scrap purchases in 2026 to be approximately 2 million tons . Because the green steel market has grown slower than previously expected, scrap consumption in the short term may remain relatively restrained. This means the EAF's upward pull on South Korean and regional scrap prices will be gradual, rather than causing a significant demand spike in the year of commissioning. Entering High-End Flat Products via Hot Metal Blending: POSCO's differentiated approach relies on "hot metal blending" technology, which mixes and refines molten steel from the EAF with hot metal from the blast furnace to lower carbon emissions while maintaining the steel quality required for high-end products. The company has designated high-grade EAF steel as one of its eight strategic products and established an integrated R&D, production, and sales project team, aiming to mass-produce automotive sheets and electrical steel by 2030. This directly addresses the growing demand for low-carbon steel from downstream automotive and electrical clients, distinguishing POSCO's EAF route from ordinary long-product EAF capacities. Regulation & Competition — Low-carbon capacity as a hedge for export competitiveness: The timing of the commissioning is highly aligned with tightening global regulations. The EU CBAM entered its definitive stage on January 1, 2026, requiring imported steel to incur fees for its embodied carbon emissions. This obligation ratio will increase annually from about 2.5% in 2026 to 100% by 2034 (corresponding to the synchronized phase-out of free allowances within the EU). For export-oriented South Korean steelmakers, low-carbon capacity acts as a hedging tool to maintain competitiveness in the European market. Overall, the Gwangyang EAF will not significantly alter POSCO's production volume structure or overall carbon footprint in its first year— 2.5 million tons represents a limited share relative to its total crude steel production. Its true significance lies in establishing a low-carbon product line and corresponding client relationships ahead of the commercialization of hydrogen-reduction steelmaking. It is a layout where the "option value" exceeds the "current capacity value." Global Steel Decarbonization Background The steel industry accounts for approximately 7%–9% of global CO2 emissions (World Steel Association data), making it one of the hardest-to-abate heavy industries. The root of the emission disparities lies in the steelmaking routes: the traditional Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) process relies on coking coal as energy and a reducing agent, making it the most carbon-intensive route; whereas the Scrap-EAF route relies primarily on electricity, making it the most mature route with the lowest carbon intensity. However, the practical constraint on route transition lies in the existing capacity structure. Within global crude steel production, the BF-BOF route still accounts for roughly 72% ; scrap-based EAF accounts for about 21% , with the remainder being Direct Reduced Iron-EAF (DRI-EAF) and other routes. China, accounting for over half of global production with a nearly 90% blast furnace share, has become the critical variable determining the pace of global steel decarbonization. Targeting the 2050 net-zero goal, mainstream pathways require the production structure to significantly tilt toward EAFs and hydrogen-based direct reduction. Yet, the transition is bottlenecked by a triple constraint: the supply and availability of high-quality scrap, the scaling up of green electricity, and the cost premium of low-carbon steel over traditional products. POSCO's "two-step" arrangement—using EAF as a transition and HyREX hydrogen reduction as the endgame—is a quintessential choice within this global landscape. South Korean Steelmakers' Decarbonization Efforts The decarbonization of the South Korean steel industry is not a solo endeavor by a single enterprise. As early as February 2021, six South Korean steelmakers, including POSCO and Hyundai Steel, jointly issued a 2050 Carbon Neutrality Declaration and established the "Green Steel Committee," comprising industry, academia, research institutions, and government departments. Since then, driven by the dual pressures of policy constraints (K-ETS Phase 4, South Korea's Nationally Determined Contributions - NDC) and external forces (CBAM), each company has formed decarbonization layouts with similar trajectories but different focuses. The common logic for both companies is clear: currently employing "transitional technologies" such as EAFs and hot metal blending to reduce the carbon footprint of products, introducing hydrogen-based direct reduction around 2030, and targeting 2050 for a full transition. The differences lie in their entry points—POSCO is betting on its self-developed HyREX as the core for the hydrogen metallurgy endgame, whereas Hyundai Steel, under its Hy-Cube brand, aims to commercialize high-end flat EAF products (like automotive sheets) much earlier. The commissioning of the Gwangyang EAF is precisely a quantifiable, deliverable milestone in this overarching transition process.

On the morning of June 30, the 20,000 mt aluminum foil capacity expansion project of Luoyang Wanji Aluminum Processing Co., Ltd. reached a key construction period. The No. 5 and No. 6 aluminum foil rolling mills successfully completed strip threading and trial runs, with all equipment operating parameters stable and commissioning results meeting standards, marking the project’s official entry into the trial production stage. The project involves a total investment of about 200 million yuan and is equipped with two 2,000 mm four-high aluminum foil rolling mills, two 2,000 mm vertical slitting machines, one intelligent digital roll grinder, ten aluminum foil annealing furnaces, and a complete full-oil recovery system, among other intelligent supporting equipment. The overall software and hardware configuration fully achieves digital and intelligent upgrades. After completion and reaching full production, the project will add 20,000 mt per year of high-end aluminum foil capacity, bringing the company’s total aluminum foil capacity to over 50,000 mt.

In November, Chengdu will once again capture global attention. The 9th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference 2026 will be grandly held in Chengdu, China, from November 17 to 20. The conference’s brand-new theme, “Integration of PV+ESS, Co-building of Ecology, and Chain-powered Future,” has been officially announced. This new theme not only represents an iterative upgrade of the conference’s philosophy, but also serves as a declaration of the times for China’s PV+ESS industry as it anchors its direction, pools its strength, and advances toward high-quality development. At present, the global push toward the dual carbon goals continues to deepen, and the energy transition is accelerating. Based on the broader industry development trends, the conference takes the theme as its core thread, focusing on three key areas: the integrated development of PV+ESS, industrial ecosystem synergy, and value mining across the entire industry chain. It will build a high-end platform for global exchange and cooperation, technological collisions, and resource matchmaking. Let us delve into the core theme of this conference and explore how this global grand event for the PV+ESS industry will lead the sector to breakthrough upgrades and steer it toward a brand-new future.

This week, macro factors were intertwined around two main threads: the acceleration of US-Iran peace talks and higher-than-expected inflation. Peace talks heated up significantly — Trump said a peace agreement would be signed as early as this weekend in Europe, and Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture. Brent crude oil fell to a near two-month low of around $89/bbl, and the geopolitical risk premium rapidly faded. However, mid-week, May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, the first time it has exceeded 4% in three years, while the US Fed kept its core interest rate unchanged this week. By the end of the week, US-Iran optimism eased growth concerns. Overall, as geopolitical tensions cooled and sticky inflation persisted, copper prices retreated from highs and fluctuated more amid macro disturbances. Fundamentals side, China's spot market strengthened notably. On the inventory front, SMM social inventory continued to decline, and suppliers held prices firm with strong willingness. Spot premiums quickly shifted from discounts to premiums, and the backwardation structure near delivery supported SHFE copper premiums. Demand side, when copper prices pulled back, bargain hunting was active and transactions recovered, but when prices rebounded, downstream buying interest was suppressed and the market cooled, with overall demand mainly based on rigid needs. The SHFE/LME price ratio recovered slightly, and buyers' purchase willingness increased. Overall, the market pattern featured support from low inventory, strengthening spot premiums, and demand switching with price levels, forming support for copper prices on the downside. Looking ahead to next week, macro focus will be on whether the US-Iran agreement can be finalized and progress on resuming navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The approaching June 30 ruling on US copper cathode tariffs also adds uncertainty. If peace talks materialize and geopolitical risks further recede, risk appetite will rebound, but oil prices and inflation expectations will fall in tandem. If sticky inflation leads the Fed to turn hawkish, it will weigh on risk assets. Fundamentals side, low inventory and strengthening spot premiums will provide downside support, while high copper prices will curb buying on rallies. LME copper is expected to trade at $13,300–13,800/mt, and SHFE copper is expected to trade at 104,200–105,800 yuan/mt, mainly moving sideways at high levels with a slightly weaker center. Spot premiums are expected to continue, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of suppliers holding prices firm after delivery and the downstream restocking intensity.

【SMM Steel】On June 9 2026, Vallourec and Ultra Corpotech Pvt Ltd signed a Memorandum of Understanding to deploy VAM threading capabilities near Mumbai, India. A dedicated threading cell is scheduled for implementation in late 2026 with commissioning in early 2027, aiming to provide premium thread protection and related services for the Indian oilfield services sector. The asset-light cooperation allows both parties to respond quickly to regional demand with minimal capital footprint. Vallourec will license its VAM threading and inspection technology along with quality control system support. The agreement reflects a strategic shift for Vallourec as the company expands access to its premium connection technology through local partners in Asia, following similar agreements with Vietnam Process Equipment and Technology Joint Stock Company in March 2025 and Saudi Arabia's Industrial Investment Company in November 2025.

Against the backdrop of China's ongoing and deepening "dual carbon" strategy, hydrogen energy, leveraging its core advantage of zero-carbon cleanliness, has widely penetrated into diverse fields such as transportation, energy storage, industry, and cultural tourism, becoming a core driver of green energy transition. However, traditional hydrogen storage methods have long had obvious shortcomings: high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage is prone to safety hazards such as leakage and deflagration, while cryogenic liquid hydrogen storage suffers from high energy consumption and costs, making it difficult to meet the current industry demands for safer, more efficient, and more accessible development. The industry urgently needs entirely new hydrogen energy storage and supply solutions. Addressing this industry pain point, Jiayi Huaqing Technology Co., Ltd. has launched the 7.2kg Solid-State Hydrogen Storage System , which, built on mature metal hydride adsorption-based hydrogen storage technology, reconstructs the safety ecosystem of hydrogen energy storage and transportation, providing robust technical support for the large-scale deployment of hydrogen energy across multiple scenarios. It is reported that this new solid-state hydrogen storage system adopts an integrated architecture, consolidating six core components to achieve intelligent, precise, and safe management across the entire process of hydrogen storage and supply, building a solid foundation for stable system operation from the equipment detail level. The device is equipped with an intelligent LCD touchscreen that displays real-time core operational data including pressure, temperature, and operating status. It also features a built-in hydrogen concentration audible and visual alarm device that provides instant warnings when parameters become abnormal, mitigating safety risks at the source. Additionally, dual pressure gauges are configured for independent management of inlet and outlet gas conditions: the inlet side can precisely regulate pressure to 2-5MPa, while the outlet side can deliver stable hydrogen output in the 0.01-0.5MPa range, precisely matching the operational requirements of different hydrogen-consuming equipment. Both ends adopt NPT1/4 standard connectors, ensuring both compatibility and safety. In terms of equipment compatibility and temperature control assurance, the system is equipped with customized inlet and outlet gas connectors that can be flexibly adjusted in specifications according to downstream equipment, seamlessly interfacing with various terminal devices such as hydrogen-powered electric motorcycles, drones, vessels, and energy storage cabinets. A 25mm-diameter ferrule-type circulating water inlet is provided, equipped with a built-in temperature sensor for real-time monitoring of inlet water temperature. Through the water circulation system, precise heating and cooling regulation of hydrogen storage materials is achieved, ensuring the equipment consistently operates under optimal conditions. The integrated cylinder valve incorporates pressure-reducing valve functionality, automatically adapting to the pressure standards of various hydrogen-consuming equipment. Combined with a dual design of quick connectors and rebar threads, it significantly simplifies equipment installation and subsequent maintenance procedures. Driven by foundational technological innovation, this system has developed four core performance advantages, comprehensively leading the solid-state hydrogen storage segment. In terms of safety, the device relies on a low-pressure solid-state hydrogen storage mode combined with metal hydride hydrogen-locking technology, fundamentally eliminating the leakage and deflagration hazards of high-pressure hydrogen storage. Coupled with multiple intelligent monitoring and early warning systems and having passed rigorous testing under various harsh operating conditions, its safety performance far exceeds that of traditional hydrogen storage equipment. In terms of operational stability, independent monitoring via dual inlet and outlet gauges and automatic pressure stabilization through the built-in pressure-reducing valve ensure smooth and fluctuation-free hydrogen output, meeting the stable hydrogen supply requirements of various equipment and effectively enhancing system operational efficiency. Intelligence and environmental adaptability: the device achieves full operational data visualization and management through the LCD touchscreen, with round-the-clock intelligent monitoring and surveillance, rapid response to abnormal conditions, and fully intelligent safety operations and maintenance throughout the entire process. It also features an ultra-wide operating temperature range of -15°C to 60°C , capable of handling complex conditions such as extreme cold, intense heat, and high altitudes with ease, enabling stable deployment across different regions and various scenarios nationwide, with exceptionally strong environmental adaptability. Leveraging its safe, reliable, efficient, and stable product characteristics, this 7.2kg solid-state hydrogen storage system can broadly empower zero-carbon transformation across multiple fields, with rich and diverse application scenarios. In the transportation sector, it can be paired with hydrogen-powered electric motorcycles, drones, patrol boats, industrial forklifts, and logistics hydrogen vehicles to achieve safe energy replenishment and extended driving range. In the energy sector, it can be combined with PV hydrogen energy storage cabinets to facilitate green electricity storage, absorption, and efficient utilization, promoting the deployment of distributed new energy systems. In industrial and park scenarios, it can meet the demands for stable hydrogen supply in factories and zero-carbon smart park energy supporting needs, facilitating low-carbon industrial upgrades. In the cultural tourism and commercial sector, it can be adapted for clean energy supply in green scenic areas and zero-carbon commercial districts, creating benchmark low-carbon demonstration applications. The successful launch of Jiayi Huaqing's 7.2kg solid-state hydrogen storage system represents a significant breakthrough by the enterprise in the core technology domain of hydrogen energy storage and supply, effectively addressing the industry pain points of insufficient safety, poor economics, and weak compatibility in hydrogen energy storage and transportation. The commercialization and promotion of this product will accelerate the commercialization and large-scale popularization of hydrogen energy technology, continuously improve the application ecosystem across the entire industry chain of hydrogen energy, and provide solid technological and equipment support for achieving China's "dual carbon" goals and green, low-carbon energy transition.

May 22, 2026 7:07 AM EDT Key Points Central banks sold gold to defend currencies amid 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict and energy crisis. Jeffrey Currie predicts gold could fall to $3,750 before rallying as structural buyers return. Long-term, AI-driven demand and underinvestment may push gold prices toward $10,000 per ounce. Gold has always been the asset investors run to when they stop believing in everything else. It is the trade that pays off when central banks lose credibility, when currencies wobble, when geopolitics get loud, and when the rest of the stock market finally cracks. For most of the past three years, that playbook worked beautifully. Sovereign buyers from Beijing to Warsaw to Ankara stacked bullion at a pace not seen in half a century. Retail piled in behind them. The metal blew through one all-time high after another, and the bears went quiet. Then 2026 happened. A US-Israeli war on Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, sent energy prices vertical, and forced some of the same central banks that drove the rally to start unloading their gold to defend collapsing currencies. The yellow metal has now given back almost all of its year-to-date gains, hovering near $4,534 an ounce on May 19, according to Fortune . Now one of Wall Street ’s most respected commodity voices is telling clients the pain is far from over. And the eventual payoff, if his call lands, will dwarf anything the gold market has ever produced. Why this gold selloff is just getting started The bear in question is Jeffrey Currie, the former global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs ( GS ), who spent 27 years at the firm before leaving in 2023 and is now chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group ( CG ), according to Carlyle . He is best known for calling the 2000s commodity supercycle and predicting oil’s run past $100 a barrel. In a recent thread on X , the former Twitter, Currie wrote that he has been “short gold” since March despite describing himself as a “gold perma bull”. His thesis is mechanical, not philosophical. The Iran conflict and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven energy import costs higher and pressured emerging-market currencies. To defend those currencies and pay for fuel, some of the world’s most prolific gold buyers have flipped into sellers. Turkey is the cleanest example. Its central bank sold or swapped roughly 79 tons of gold in the first quarter alone, with “the largest sales from Turkey (60 tonnes) and Russia (16 tonnes) [offsetting] purchases elsewhere,” according to the World Gold Council . “When the marginal central bank flips from structural buyer to forced seller to pay for energy, gold’s biggest bid disappears,” Currie wrote on X . That dynamic, in his view, points to a deeper retracement. He sees gold sliding all the way toward $4,000, with a possible overshoot into the $3,750 range, before sovereign buyers, particularly China, step back in and restart the rally. The bigger thesis behind the $10,000 gold target Currie’s gold call sits inside a much bigger argument about how a decade of capital flows have left commodity markets dangerously under-invested. After running the numbers against his framework myself, the imbalance is more extreme than most equity investors realize. The argument starts with where the money has gone. The Magnificent Seven plus Oracle ( ORCL ) are projected to spend roughly $820 billion on artificial intelligence capital expenditure in 2026 alone, which Currie called “the largest physical commodity bid ever assembled inside eight income statements,” according to Benzinga . Meanwhile, the suppliers cannot keep up. The numbers Currie laid out paint a clear picture: Information Technology and Communication Services make up roughly 43% of the S&P 500 , while Energy and Materials together account for about 6%. Upstream oil and gas investment is down 35% from its 2015 peak. The world’s top 20 mining companies are spending 40% less than during the 2012 peak cycle, per Currie’s analysis. Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, up 3% year-on-year. Source: Currie’s analysis via Benzinga Currie calls this transition the move from “HAGO” (Hard Assets, Global Operations) into “ HALO ” (Hard Assets, Local Operations), where physical commodities are repriced upward as supply struggles to meet AI -driven demand. “The price will overshoot first. The capex will follow. Then the new supply,” Currie wrote in his X thread . That sequence, in his framework, is what eventually pushes gold to $10,000. Once central banks stop fighting inflation , pivot back to easier policy, and resume buying physical metal, the same forced sellers of today flip back into structural bidders. What this gold call means for your portfolio None of this guarantees Currie is right. Plenty of veteran strategists have made bold price calls that aged poorly, and the path from $4,000 to $10,000 will almost certainly take years rather than quarters. Iris Cibre, founder of Phoenix Consultancy in Istanbul, has noted that Turkey’s recent gold operations were primarily designed to support the lira during a specific war-driven liquidity crunch, not a verdict on gold’s long-term value, according to the Canadian Mining Report . That distinction matters. Forced selling is not fundamental selling, and a 2025 survey found that 95% of central banks expected global gold holdings to rise over the next 12 months, according to the World Gold Council . In my analysis, what makes Currie’s framework interesting is the structural argument underneath the headline number. Markets have systematically underfunded the physical world for a decade while flooding the digital one with capital. If he is even directionally right, the next gold cycle is less about jewelry, inflation hedges, or fear trades. It is about repricing every ton of metal that an AI data center, an EV plant, or a defense supply chain ultimately needs, an argument that echoes Goldman’s own longer-term outlook for the rest of this decade. For investors holding the SPDR Gold Shares ( GLD ) ETF, which was up 3.32% year-to-date as of last week, the short-term setup looks ugly. Currie himself is positioned for a deeper drawdown first. But the same trade he is shorting today is the one he expects to flip aggressively long once the energy shock starts hurting growth. If you own gold, the next chapter of this story will probably be written by central banks, not by day traders. And central banks have very long memories. Source： https://www.thestreet.com/investing/veteran-goldman-strategist-makes-stunning-10000-gold-call