In April, China's exports of unwrought zinc alloy surged, with a MoM increase exceeding 450%, hitting a new high in nearly a decade. In contrast, imports saw relatively small changes. Below are the specifics.

[Die-casting zinc alloy exports in April hit a new high in a decade! How will exports develop in the future?] China's unwrought zinc alloy exports surged in April, with a MoM increase exceeding 450%, hitting a new high in nearly a decade. In contrast, imports saw relatively small changes. Below are the details...

Executive Report on China's Monetary Policy for Q1 2025 Content Summary Since the beginning of this year, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, various macro policies have been implemented in a coordinated manner, and the economy has shown a positive trend. In Q1, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 5.4% YoY. Social confidence has continued to improve, and high-quality development has been steadily advancing, achieving a good start for the national economy. The People's Bank of China (PBOC), guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, has conscientiously implemented the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council. It has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy, strengthened counter-cyclical adjustments, and created a suitable monetary and financial environment for the sustained economic rebound and improvement. 1. Maintaining Reasonable Growth in Money and Credit. The PBOC has utilized a combination of tools, including reserve requirement ratios, open market operations, medium-term lending facilities (MLFs), and re-lending and rediscounting, to maintain ample liquidity. It has guided financial institutions to fully meet the effective credit demands of the real economy, improve the efficiency of capital utilization, and enhance the quality and efficiency of services to the real economy. 2. Promoting a Decline in Comprehensive Social Financing Costs. The PBOC has improved the market-oriented interest rate regulation framework, lowered policy interest rates and interest rates for structural monetary policy tools, strengthened the implementation of interest rate policies, and driven down deposit and lending interest rates. 3. Guiding the Adjustment and Optimization of Credit Structure. The PBOC has promoted the optimization of re-lending for technological innovation and technological transformation, made good use of two capital market support tools, implemented various existing structural monetary policy tools, created new policy tools, and continued to make progress in the "Five Major Articles" of finance. 4. Maintaining Basic Stability of the Exchange Rate. The PBOC has adhered to the principle that the market plays a decisive role in exchange rate formation, leveraged the regulatory functions of the exchange rate on the macro economy and international payments, implemented comprehensive measures, maintained stable expectations, and kept the RMB exchange rate basically stable amid complex situations. 5. Strengthening Risk Prevention and Resolution. The PBOC has prudently and orderly resolved financial risks in key areas and continuously improved the financial risk monitoring, assessment, and early warning systems. The counter-cyclical adjustment effects of monetary policy have been relatively evident. The aggregate amount of finance has grown steadily. At the end of March, the outstanding social financing stock and broad money (M2) increased by 8.4% and 7.0% YoY, respectively, and the balance of RMB loans reached 265.4 trillion yuan. Social financing costs have remained at historically low levels. In March, the interest rates on newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans decreased by approximately 50 and 60 basis points YoY, respectively. The credit structure has continued to optimize. At the end of March, loans to specialized and sophisticated small and medium-sized enterprises and inclusive micro and small enterprise loans increased by 15.1% and 12.2% YoY, respectively, continuing to outpace the growth rate of all loans.The RMB exchange rate remained basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1782 yuan at the end of March, basically flat compared with that at the end of the previous year. Currently, the impact of external shocks is intensifying, with insufficient momentum for global economic growth, rising trade protectionism, and persistent geopolitical conflicts. The foundation for China's sustained economic rebound and improvement needs further consolidation. However, it should also be noted that China possesses numerous advantages, including a vast market, a complete industrial system, and abundant human resources. The fundamental trend of long-term economic improvement remains unchanged. We must strengthen our confidence in development and respond to the uncertainties of the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development. In the next phase, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, comprehensively implement the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Two Sessions, uphold the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, unwaveringly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics, further deepen financial reforms and high-level opening-up to the outside world, continuously promote high-quality financial development and the building of a financial powerhouse, accelerate the improvement of the central bank system, and further refine the monetary policy framework. We will balance short-term and long-term goals, steady growth and risk prevention, internal and external equilibrium, as well as supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system. We will enhance the foresight, pertinence, and effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of macroeconomic policies, expand domestic demand, stabilize expectations, stimulate vitality, and make every effort to consolidate the fundamentals of economic development and social stability. We will implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy. Based on the domestic and international economic and financial situations, as well as the operation of financial markets, we will flexibly adjust the intensity and pace of policy implementation, maintain ample liquidity, and ensure that the growth of aggregate social financing and money supply aligns with the expected targets for economic growth and the overall price level. We will prioritize promoting a reasonable rebound in prices as a key consideration in monetary policy formulation, and strive to keep prices at a reasonable level. We will unclog the monetary policy transmission mechanism, further refine the interest rate regulation framework, continuously strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies, reduce banks' liability costs, and drive down the overall social financing costs. We will leverage the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of both aggregate and structural aspects, adhere to focusing on key areas, maintaining reasonable moderation, and advancing and retreating as appropriate, guiding financial institutions to increase support for technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance for small and micro enterprises, consumption expansion, and stable foreign trade. We will uphold a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies for adjustment, and adhere to the decisive role of the market in exchange rate formation. We will enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilize market expectations, resolutely correct procyclical behaviors in the market, dispose of behaviors that disrupt market order, and resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshooting, thereby maintaining the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.We will explore and expand the macroprudential and financial stability functions of the central bank to maintain the stability of the financial market and resolutely uphold the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks. Click to view: 》China's Monetary Policy Implementation Report for Q1 2025

SMM April 28 News: In the metal market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market all fell, with SHFE copper down 0.26%. SHFE tin dropped 0.5%, SHFE nickel fell 0.81%. SHFE aluminum declined 0.23%, SHFE lead decreased 0.24%, and SHFE zinc dropped 0.97%. In addition, alumina rose 0.17%. Lithium carbonate fell 1.58%, silicon metal dropped 0.79%, and polysilicon declined 1.64%. The ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with iron ore down 0.63%, rebar up 0.84%, HRC up 1.12%, and stainless steel slightly up. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 1.14%, and coke dropped 1.04%. In the overseas metal market, as of 11:47, base metals showed mixed performance. LME tin fell 0.83%. LME nickel rose 0.26%. LME lead increased 0.62%, LME copper slightly declined, LME aluminum rose 0.14%, and LME zinc dropped 0.25%. In the precious metals sector, as of 11:47, COMEX gold rose 0.15%, while COMEX silver fell 0.73%. Domestically, SHFE gold dropped 1.18%, and SHFE silver fell 1.25%. The world's largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, announced that as of Friday, its gold holdings decreased by 0.24% to 946.27 mt. The latest Kitco News weekly gold survey showed that after days of selling pressure on gold prices, only a few industry experts and retail traders remained bullish on gold. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for European container shipping rose 0.78% to 1,386.9 points. As of 11:47 on April 28, some futures midday market conditions: 》April 28 SMM Metal Spot Prices Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 180 yuan/mt to 230 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 205 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was reported at a premium of 120 yuan/mt to 140 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 130 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 77,620 yuan/mt, down 515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 77,545 yuan/mt, down 515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory has declined for 18 consecutive days, with strong downstream consumption being the main reason. Inventory fell significantly after the weekend and is now close to breaking the 20,000 mt mark... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: 【Pan Gongsheng: Implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote high-quality development of China's economy】 The State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10:00 this morning, inviting Zhao Chenxin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Yu Jiadong, Vice Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of Commerce, and Zou Lan, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), to introduce policies and measures for stabilizing employment and the economy to promote high-quality development, and to answer questions from reporters. Zhao Chenxin of the NDRC: China will introduce and implement several measures to stabilize employment and the economy to promote high-quality development; Yu Jiadong of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: In Q1, 3.08 million new urban jobs were created nationwide; Sheng Qiuping of the Ministry of Commerce: The implementation of the consumer goods trade-in policy has boosted consumption by over 720 billion yuan; Zou Lan of the PBOC: The central bank will adjust the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates in a timely manner based on domestic and overseas economic conditions and financial market operations. 》Click for details 【PBOC injects a net 103 billion yuan into the open market】 The PBOC conducted 279 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with the operation rate at 1.50%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 176 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection was 103 billion yuan. ► On April 28, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2043 yuan per dollar. US Dollar: As of 11:47, the US dollar index was flat at 99.62. A series of economic data will be released this week, including the PCE price index on Wednesday and the non-farm payroll report on Friday, which are expected to provide guidance for the market to judge the future policy direction of the US Fed. Other Currencies: US-Japan trade negotiations enter deep waters! In the finance ministers' meeting that just concluded last week, Japan seemed to have avoided direct pressure from the US on yen appreciation, but upon closer examination of the statements from both sides, the exchange rate issue and the Bank of Japan's policy remain the "sword of Damocles" hanging overhead. As the second round of negotiations is about to begin, the game concerning the economic lifelines of the two countries is undercurrent. Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu insisted that "no exchange rate target was discussed," but revealed that there will be "close dialogue on the exchange rate issue" during the trade negotiations. The US did not directly accuse Japan of manipulating the exchange rate, but Trump has long held the view that "the yen is deliberately devalued." NLI Research Institute experts warned: If trade negotiations are blocked, the exchange rate issue will immediately surface. (Huitong Finance) Data: Today, the UK's April CBI retail sales difference and other data will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that Canada is holding a federal election. Crude Oil: As of 11:47, crude oil futures rose slightly, with US oil up 0.33% and Brent oil up 0.26%. The uncertainty of the trade situation continues to cloud the global growth and fuel demand outlook, while the prospect of OPEC+ production increases has added to market gloom, limiting oil price gains. The market expects that some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, will recommend that the group accelerate production increases for the second consecutive month at the May 5 meeting. US energy services company Baker Hughes said in its closely watched report on Friday that US energy companies added oil and gas rigs for the second consecutive week, the first time since February. Data showed that as of the week of April 25, the total number of US oil and gas rigs, a leading indicator of future production, increased by 2 to 587. (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► Pre-holiday stockpiling is moderate, suppliers insist on high premiums for shipments [SMM South China Copper Spot] ► The price spread between futures contracts widened, downstream buying interest was poor, and spot premiums/discounts fell [SMM North China Copper Spot] ► The spot-futures price spread narrowed, some suppliers lowered premiums, downstream pre-holiday rigid demand stockpiling supported transaction resilience [SMM Daily Review] Other metal spot midday reviews will be updated later, please refresh to view~

As the Trump administration is expected to hold tariff negotiations with the visiting Japanese delegation this week, a key issue troubling the global market will also face resolution: What exactly does the US government aim to "extort" from its global trading partners amidst the historic chaos it has created? As a long-term ally of the US and a country that signed the Plaza Accord in 1985 to address the US trade deficit, Japan has been subjected to a 24% "reciprocal tariff" by the Trump administration, currently under a 90-day suspension, but the 10% general tariff remains effective, while the 25% auto tariff severely impacting Japan's economy has already taken effect. Japan issued its toughest statement to date: No rush to reach an agreement. As a country repeatedly emphasized by the Trump administration as "at the forefront of negotiations," the Japanese delegation led by Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa will visit the US on Thursday and hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Besant. At this critical juncture, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized in parliament on Monday, Japan does not intend to make significant concessions in the upcoming negotiations with the Trump administration, nor will it rush to reach an agreement. Ishiba stated: "I do not believe that significant concessions should be made to expedite the conclusion of negotiations. When negotiating with the US, Japan needs to understand the logic behind Trump's statements and the emotional factors in his views." Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also warned on Monday, stating that "US tariffs could exert downward pressure on the global and Japanese economies through various channels." In addition to the trade deficit between the US and Japan, Trump frequently criticizes the weak yen exchange rate, which could also become a core issue in this week's negotiations. To this end, the Japanese have also kept a card up their sleeve. What will be discussed this week? As the leader of the Japanese negotiation team, Ryosei Akazawa stated at a press conference last Friday that it is currently unclear what demands the US will make, and clarifying these demands will be the starting point of the negotiations. Projects frequently mentioned by US and Japanese officials recently include a liquefied natural gas project in Alaska. Besant has stated that Japan and South Korea could provide substantial orders for this project and also offer financing for its development. Of course, the reason this project requires the US to push through tariffs is due to a series of issues such as high construction difficulty, long development cycles, and uncertain profitability. On the highly concerning issue of exchange rates, the Japanese delegation has specifically "kept a card up their sleeve": Separate heads for trade negotiations and exchange rate negotiations. The exchange rate issue will still be handled by Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato, who plans to head to Washington in late April to attend the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings, where a meeting between the two finance ministers may be arranged, providing an opportunity to discuss exchange rate issues. Akazawa also stated last week that if Besant raises the exchange rate issue during the talks, he is willing to discuss it. To delay the negotiations until Kato's visit to the US, the Japanese Ministry of Finance will send its highest-ranking foreign exchange official, Atsushi Mimura, to accompany Akazawa on his visit to the US. In addition to exchange rates, recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market have also brought Japan, the largest "creditor" of the US, into focus, and the situation of Japanese institutions selling US Treasury bonds could become another focal point of the negotiations. Japan is also concerned that, as one of the first countries to negotiate with the Trump administration, the US may attempt to impose harsh conditions on its ally Japan to pressure other countries. As background, the US did not notify Japan in advance before announcing the "reciprocal tariff" rates. For Japan, the Trump administration may also express dissatisfaction with the US-Japan Security Treaty. Similar to the situation with NATO, Trump often complains that such treaties allow allies to "free ride" on the US. Previous reports have suggested that the Trump administration may demand Japan increase its defense spending as a percentage of GDP, potentially increasing the Japanese government's financing pressure, and Japan may propose expanding US arms purchases in response.

On the 9th, the State Council Information Office released the white paper "China's Position on Several Issues in China-US Economic and Trade Relations," refuting ten fallacies from the US side. The key points are as follows: Fallacy 1: The US is at a disadvantage in China-US trade. The essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win cooperation. In terms of goods trade, the growth rate of US exports to China has been significantly faster than its exports to the world. According to UN statistics, in 2024, the US export value to China reached $143.55 billion, an increase of 648.4% compared to $19.18 billion in 2001, far exceeding the 183.1% growth in US exports to the world during the same period. China is the largest export market for US soybeans and cotton, the second-largest export market for integrated circuits and coal, and the third-largest export market for medical devices, petroleum gas, and automobiles. The US is the largest source of China's service trade deficit, with the deficit scale showing an overall expanding trend. China's payments to the US for intellectual property rights have continued to grow. Overall, China-US economic and trade cooperation has created a large number of job opportunities for the US, generated substantial profits for US enterprises, and brought tangible benefits to US consumers. Fallacy 2: China has not seriously implemented the first phase of the China-US economic and trade agreement. The first phase of the China-US economic and trade agreement officially took effect on February 15, 2020. Recently, the US has repeatedly hyped that China's purchases have fallen short of expectations and that China has not fulfilled the agreement. In terms of goods trade, China has been actively fulfilling its commitments. However, in the process of implementation, China has faced multiple obstacles caused by the US side. For example, in 2018 and 2019, the most-traded Boeing model B737MAX experienced serious accidents such as crashes, leading to grounding measures in most countries, including China and the US, which significantly impacted aircraft trade. Another example is the insufficient US infrastructure, which has increased transportation costs. The cost of transporting US crude oil to China is twice that of the Middle East, making its international competitiveness relatively weak. Fallacy 3: China forces US companies to transfer technology. China firmly opposes any form of forced technology transfer. The US labels the voluntary contractual behavior of foreign-invested enterprises and Chinese enterprises cooperating to achieve commercial returns in the Chinese market as "forced technology transfer," which is inconsistent with the facts. China has taken multiple measures to protect trade secrets, pharmaceutical intellectual property rights, combat online infringement, and strengthen intellectual property law enforcement, earnestly fulfilling the commitments in the intellectual property chapter of the agreement. Fallacy 4: China engages in competitive currency devaluation. In recent years, the RMB exchange rate has remained basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, and China's international payments have become more balanced. Since 2020, the RMB exchange rate index of the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, which measures the RMB against a basket of currencies, has generally operated around 100, maintaining relative strength among major international currencies, with no competitive devaluation. The annualized volatility of the RMB exchange rate has remained around 3% to 4%, roughly equivalent to the volatility of major international currencies. When assessing the RMB exchange rate, one should not only look at the exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar. Fallacy 5: China has excess capacity. The so-called "China's excess capacity theory" is contrary to common sense and logic. From the perspective of market economy principles, supply and demand are two fundamental aspects of the internal relationship of a market economy. Supply-demand balance is short-term and relative, while imbalance is universal and dynamic. Using "excess capacity" as an excuse to restrict China's product exports and investment cooperation is blatant trade protectionism and artificial intervention and fragmentation of the global market. Fallacy 6: China discriminates against foreign enterprises in terms of policy preferences. In 2022, China issued an opinion on accelerating the construction of a unified national market, explicitly proposing to comprehensively clean up various preferential policies that discriminate against foreign-funded enterprises and local enterprises and implement local protection. There are three "equal treatments": equal tax treatment for domestic and foreign enterprises, equal treatment for imported and domestic goods, and equal treatment for individual income taxes of Chinese and foreign citizens. Fallacy 7: Most-favored-nation treatment is a US favor. Permanent normal trade relations status (i.e., permanent most-favored-nation treatment) is the core foundation of China-US economic and trade relations. Most-favored-nation treatment is a fundamental principle of the multilateral trading system. WTO rules require WTO members to unconditionally grant most-favored-nation treatment to other WTO members, and this requirement is legally binding. Granting most-favored-nation treatment is mutual and by no means a "favor" from the US. Fallacy 8: China's small parcels are a pipeline for exporting fentanyl substances to the US. In February and March 2025, the US imposed comprehensive tariff hikes on Chinese products exported to the US, citing fentanyl and other issues, and threatened to cancel the duty-free policy for small parcels from China. On April 2, the US announced that it would cancel the duty-free policy for small parcels from China starting May 2. China is one of the countries with the strictest and most thorough drug control policies in the world, implementing strict controls on the production, operation, use, and export of such substances. To date, no cases of such drugs being lost in the production or circulation process have been found. Fallacy 9: The duty-free policy for small parcels may impact domestic industries. Consumers purchasing personal items from abroad is a beneficial supplement to personal consumption. Although the import value of global retail parcels has grown rapidly in recent years, the overall scale remains relatively limited, accounting for a relatively small proportion of global trade and total retail sales, far from a dominant position. If the duty-free policy for small parcels is canceled, inspecting and taxing each small parcel individually will bring huge regulatory costs and significantly increase logistics and customs clearance costs for enterprises. Fallacy 10: TikTok and others harm US national security. The US government has continuously politicized economic and trade issues under the pretext of national security, introducing various economic and trade restriction policies and measures. For example, under the so-called "protection of US national security," it has forced TikTok to sell or divest, interfering with the normal operation of enterprises and threatening the technical security and commercial interests of investors. The US's various actions are entirely about suppression and containment under the guise of national security and human rights. The US has adopted discriminatory control measures on artificial intelligence models and integrated circuits that provide underlying computing power, essentially creating a hierarchy in the field of artificial intelligence and depriving developing countries, including China, of the right to achieve technological progress.

SMM April 7 News: In the metal market, as of the midday close, all base metals in the domestic market fell. SHFE copper hit the limit down at the opening on the 7th, and the limit down was lifted after 10:00. As of the midday close, SHFE copper fell 6%. SHFE tin fell 5.97%, SHFE nickel fell 5.53%, SHFE aluminum fell 2.94%, SHFE lead fell 1.66%, and SHFE zinc fell 1.58%. In addition, alumina fell 2.74%, lithium carbonate fell 2.13%, silicon metal fell 1.94%, and polysilicon fell 0.54%. The ferrous metals series all fell, with iron ore down 2.6%, rebar down 2.24%, HRC down 2.47%, and stainless steel down 3.65%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 2.16%, and coke fell 1.1%. In the overseas metal market, as of 11:42, base metals generally rose. LME lead rose 0.52%, LME copper rose 2.01%, LME aluminum rose 1.64%, and LME zinc rose 1.6%. LME tin fell 1.16%, and LME nickel slightly fell. In the precious metals sector, as of 11:42, COMEX gold rose 0.41%, and COMEX silver rose 3.13%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 2.84%, and SHFE silver fell 8.11%. China's gold reserves at the end of March were 73.7 million ounces, compared to 73.61 million ounces at the end of February. The PBOC has expanded its gold reserves for five consecutive months. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract of the European line container shipping fell 8.31%, reported at 1,932.2 points. As of 11:42 on April 7, some futures midday quotes: SMM metal spot prices on April 7. Spot and fundamentals: Iron ore: SMM global iron ore shipments totaled 31.55 million mt, down 5.8% MoM. Shipments from Australia were 16.94 million mt, down 12% MoM. Shipments from Australia to China were 14.22 million mt, accounting for 83.9% of total shipments from Australia, down 2.6% MoM. Shipments from Brazil were 7.45 million mt, up 4.7% MoM. Shipments from Brazil to China were 3.78 million mt, accounting for 50.8% of total shipments from Brazil, down 4.3% MoM. This week, shipments from non-mainstream mines slightly rebounded, up 0.3% MoM. SMM China iron ore port arrivals totaled 25.46 million mt, down 5.7% MoM, up 9.6% YoY. Click for details. Macro front: Domestically: The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference at 3:00 PM on April 10. According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of March were $3,240.7 billion, up $13.4 billion from the end of February, an increase of 0.42%. In March 2025, influenced by macroeconomic data, fiscal and monetary policies, and expectations of major economies, the US dollar index fell, and global financial asset prices generally declined. The combined effects of exchange rate conversion and asset price changes led to an increase in foreign exchange reserves for the month. China's economic operation remained stable and progressive, with a package of existing and incremental policies continuing to take effect, and high-quality development steadily advancing, providing support for the basic stability of foreign exchange reserves. HSBC survey: Nearly half of institutional investors are optimistic about China's growth prospects, with Chinese stocks becoming the top choice for emerging market investors recently. The PBOC conducted 93.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.5%. As 245.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 151.7 billion yuan was realized. On April 7, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1980 yuan per US dollar. In the US dollar sector: As of 11:42, the US dollar index rose 0.12%, reported at 103. Fed Chairman Powell said on Friday that the scale of new US tariffs is "larger than expected," and the economic impact, including rising inflation and slowing economic growth, could also be greater. He also warned that it is too early to know what the right response from the Fed should be. Data released before Powell's speech on Friday showed that US non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, far exceeding the expected 135,000, with the February increase revised down to 117,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. A closely watched inflation indicator this week will show how much impact goods and services prices have on consumers. The market predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates four times in the remainder of the year. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June, earlier than the previously expected July. In other currencies: During the Asian trading session on Monday (April 7), after hitting a low of 1.2820 for more than a month, GBP/USD attracted some bargain-hunting, and the exchange rate is currently trading around 1.2850. However, due to the pressure on the global economic outlook, the upward momentum lacks strong buying support. The pound seems to be supported by market expectations that the Bank of England will lower borrowing costs more slowly than other central banks, including the Fed. In data: Today, Germany's seasonally adjusted industrial production MoM for February, Germany's working-day adjusted industrial production YoY for February, Germany's seasonally adjusted exports MoM for February, the Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index for April, the Eurozone's retail sales MoM for February, the Eurozone's retail sales YoY for February, the global leading indicator of industrial production cycle turning points for March, and Canada's leading indicator MoM for March will be released. In crude oil: As of 11:42, crude oil futures fell, with WTI crude down 2.65% and Brent crude down 2.62%. The market weighed the expected increase in US crude oil production and the impact of trade tariffs. US energy services company Baker Hughes said in its closely watched report that US energy companies cut the total number of oil and gas rigs for the second consecutive week, but the number of oil rigs rose to the highest level since June. Data showed that as of the week of April 4, the total number of US oil and gas rigs, a leading indicator of future production, fell by 2 to 590. Baker Hughes said that the number of active US oil rigs increased by 5 this week to 489, the highest level since June 2024, while the number of gas rigs fell by 7, the largest drop since May 2023, to 96, the lowest since September last year. Spot market overview: After the holiday, copper prices once hit the limit down, and spot trading was sluggish [SMM South China copper spot]. In the early market, LME copper futures were volatile, and the import window opened with offers rising sharply [SMM Yangshan copper spot]. SHFE copper hit the limit down at the opening, and the spot market was turbulent, but the situation improved after the opening [SMM SHFE copper spot]. Guangdong zinc: Futures center fell, and spot premiums/discounts rose [SMM midday review]. [SMM iron ore shipping data] Global shipments and port arrivals both declined. Other metal spot midday reviews will be updated later, please refresh to view.

SMM News on March 21st: According to customs data, China's die-cast zinc alloy exports in January were 531.78 tons, China's die-cast zinc alloy exports in February were 151.43 tons, and the cumulative export volume in January-February was 683.21 tons, up 37.89% year-on-year. According to historical data, the cumulative export volume from January to February this year also reached a record high in the past four years. What is the reason for this? How will China's subsequent export of die-cast zinc alloys develop?

LME copper opened at $9,934 last night, reaching a high of $9,986.5 during the session before fluctuating downward to hit a low of $9,906 and finally closing at $9,910. It fell $87.5 from the previous close of $9,997.5, a decline of 0.87%.

Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Monetary Policy Easing Expectations and Trade Tension Relief Boost Aluminum Prices with Clearer Upside Drivers Macro perspective, aluminum prices in the short term benefit from expectations for monetary policy easing and sentiment uplift due to trade tension relief, making the upward drivers clearer; however, one must be cautious of regional supply surplus risks brought by Indian export shifts and potential downward pressure if trade negotiation outcomes fall short of expectations. Domestically, the pressure to stabilize exchange rates has eased, and the central market interest rate has significantly risen, with phased monetary policy goals gradually being achieved. However, overseas policy uncertainties remain high, posing constraints. Meanwhile, the short-term stabilization of the domestic economy and long-term improvement in macro demand, along with double-digit growth in private manufacturing investment and continuous enhancement of innovation capabilities in the private sector, mean that although expectations for monetary easing still exist, they are not urgent. Fundamentally, there are significant bullish signals in the aluminum industry chain: according to SMM, on March 20, the inventory of aluminum ingot in major domestic consumption areas was 839,000 mt, down 28,000 mt WoW from the previous Thursday, and LME aluminum inventory also decreased by 1,525 mt, a decline of 0.33%, indicating a clear destocking trend and the ongoing effect of peak consumption season. If expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts rise or if trade relations between the US and Europe further ease, aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is necessary to closely monitor changes in US tariff policies and the actual release of downstream demand.