[US Congressional Budget Office: The deadline for the US to reach the debt ceiling is expected to be from mid-August to month-end September] The US Congressional Budget Office stated that the deadline for the US to reach the debt ceiling is expected to be from mid-August to month-end September.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Spot Order Market Transactions Remain Sluggish, Lead Prices May Maintain Fluctuating Trend]...SHFE lead continued its fluctuating trend, with suppliers shipping goods according to market conditions. The discounts for some warrant cargo quotations widened compared to last Friday, while the discounts for cargoes self-picked up from production site narrowed. Primary lead quotations in major producing areas were at premiums of 0-125 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. Additionally, there were more production cuts at secondary lead smelters, and market quotations were scattered...

As the US federal deficit "continues to soar," President Trump has finally revealed his "true feelings": the US should abolish the debt ceiling system. He urged both parties to take action to abolish it, stating that it was rare for him to agree with Senator Elizabeth Warren, a senior Democrat. On his social media platform Truth Social, he wrote, "I am pleased to announce that after all these years, I finally agree with Senator Elizabeth Warren on certain issues. The debt ceiling should be completely abolished to prevent an economic disaster. It is too destructive and should not be controlled by politicians who want to exploit it." "It could have a terrible impact on our country and, indirectly, even on the world. I also like Senator Warren's second statement about $4 trillion, but this must be done in the shortest possible time. Let's unite, Republicans and Democrats, and take action together!" he added. Trump shared a post from Warren on the social media platform X last Friday. Warren had expressed her agreement with Trump's view that the debt ceiling "should be abolished" and called for a bipartisan bill to "get rid of it forever." Trump also stated that he had "always agreed with her (Warren's) views" on this issue, adding that he had not discussed it with her privately. Last Friday, Trump also joined Musk at a press conference to express their hope to "see it (the debt ceiling) terminated and abolished, with no more votes every five or ten years, because it is catastrophic for our country." Trump's proposal is undoubtedly a "bombshell" for Washington politicians. The federal debt ceiling is like the "credit limit" on the government's "credit card," specifying the maximum amount the US government can owe. Simply put, the current situation is that the Treasury Department's limit is almost exhausted, and government spending could "run out" at any time. This system was originally intended to constrain the government from overspending, but it later became a tool for partisan bickering. Every time the debt approaches the limit, members of Congress from both sides start arguing fiercely, with neither side willing to compromise. If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling or suspend it, the US government could shut down or even face a debt default. At a time when Trump is vigorously promoting his "Big and Beautiful" bill, it's no wonder he came up with this idea: just abolish it. According to an analysis released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday, although the "Big and Beautiful" bill will reduce taxes by $3.75 trillion over the next decade, it will also lead to an increase in the deficit by $2.4 trillion. It is worth mentioning that the "Big and Beautiful" bill also includes raising the national debt ceiling by $4 trillion (currently at $36 trillion) to allow for more borrowing. Russell Vought, Director of the US Office of Management and Budget, said on Wednesday evening, "President Trump believes it is very important that debt extension be part of this bill." "From a philosophical perspective, both parties should support reflecting on the fact that this tool provides too much leverage to the opposition or minority party, allowing them to hold hostage a government trying to do great things for the American people," he continued. Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also urged Congress to raise the US debt ceiling by mid-July to prevent default.

On the macro front, as China and the US reached a substantive consensus on easing economic and trade tensions in Geneva, the trajectory of the US's trade policies toward major economies has once again fluctuated. Despite the US Secretary of Commerce expressing the intention to finalize agreements with major trading partners before summer, President Trump recently reiterated the possibility of imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, leading to heightened market risk aversion and putting pressure on the US dollar index. The 90-day negotiation window briefly reopened between the US and the EU still faces significant uncertainty. Trump's tax reform bill narrowly passed the House of Representatives, proposing a substantial increase of $4 trillion in the debt ceiling. It is expected that the scale of US debt will expand by an additional $3.3 trillion over the next decade, with the federal debt ratio potentially surging to 125% of GDP, indicating an increasingly aggressive path of fiscal expansion. In terms of monetary policy, although some Fed officials, such as Waller, lean toward initiating interest rate cuts in H2 if tariffs decline, given the frequent changes in trade policies and the potential impact of tariffs on supply chains, the market believes that the Fed is unlikely to take substantive action before July, and the pace of interest rate cuts may be delayed. This week, copper prices fluctuated rangebound as expected, with LME copper trading around $9,550-9,650/mt and SHFE copper trading around 77,700-78,500 yuan/mt. On the fundamental front, Antofagasta conducted negotiations for mid-2025 long-term contracts in Japan last week, with the initial TC offer at -$15/mt. According to market sources, the Japanese side showed low acceptance of this offer, and no specific figures were released during the first round of negotiations in China this week. Mid-week, the incident at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the DRC gradually escalated, with both major shareholders issuing statements announcing the suspension of underground mining operations, with the total impact yet to be assessed. For copper cathode, spot premiums both domestically and internationally declined this week, with no pre-holiday stocking demand evident and social inventory remaining flat overall. The SHFE backwardation structure narrowed for consecutive months, while the LME backwardation structure expanded significantly. Looking ahead to next week, macroeconomic data for May from various countries is set to be released. Affected by tariffs, it is expected that economic data for April-May will show little marginal growth overall, and copper prices are anticipated to remain flat. It is expected that LME copper will fluctuate rangebound between $9,350-9,550/mt next week, while SHFE copper will fluctuate between 77,000-78,000 yuan/mt. On the spot front, as the country gradually enters the off-season for consumption, downstream demand remains weak amid high copper prices. However, the supply of imported copper is also tight, leading to a state of weak balance with both supply and demand decreasing domestically. It is expected that spot premiums will stabilize after a slight drop. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2506 contract are expected to range from a premium of 80-150 yuan/mt.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Domestic and Overseas Lead Ingot Inventories Build Up Simultaneously, Center of Lead Price Movement Shifts Downward] From January to April, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China continued to rebound, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, 0.6 percentage points faster than that from January to March. Recently, domestic and overseas lead ingot inventories have gradually built up. In particular, new capacity of secondary lead enterprises in the domestic market has been put into operation, and supply has shown a steady upward trend. On the one hand, the increase in supply may raise the risk of inventory buildup for lead ingots...

US Treasury Secretary Bentsen warned again on Tuesday while answering questions in the House of Representatives that the US Treasury Department was on "high alert," meaning it was close to exhausting its capacity to stay within the federal debt ceiling, but he did not provide a specific timeframe. When answering questions before the House Appropriations Committee, Bentsen said, "When we believe we are approaching the so-called 'X-date,' we will share this information with Congress." He noted that the Treasury Department was still tallying tax revenues from the most recent filing quarter. The "X-date" refers to the day when the Treasury Department is unable to pay all of the government's bills on time. The US debt ceiling was reinstated in early January this year, and the US Treasury Department has since been using extraordinary accounting measures to maintain federal obligation payments while avoiding breaching the debt ceiling. Wall Street analysts estimate that the US Treasury Department may need Congress to raise or suspend the debt ceiling between August and October. Bentsen once again assured that the US government would never default on its debt and promised that the Treasury Department would not use "gimmicks" to circumvent the debt ceiling. In fact, concerns over the risks associated with the debt ceiling have already had a certain impact on the stability of the US financial system and even the decision-making of the US Fed over the past few months. The January minutes of the US Fed indicated that at that time, many participants pointed out that it might be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing down the reduction of the balance sheet until the debt ceiling issue was resolved. Ultimately, the US Fed did decide at its March policy meeting to further slow the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in April: reducing the monthly redemption cap for Treasuries from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining the monthly redemption cap for agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion. In a letter to lawmakers in March, Bentsen stated that the Treasury Department would extend the use of extraordinary measures until June 27 to allow the federal government to pay its bills until Congress resolves the debt ceiling issue. Bentsen also noted at that time that due to "considerable uncertainty," the Treasury Department could not estimate how long the extraordinary measures and cash would last, and the department expected to provide an update to Congress in early May. Bentsen's latest remarks this week are undoubtedly a response to the latest developments regarding the debt ceiling issue. It is worth mentioning that Phillip Swagel, Director of the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO), also stated earlier this week that the US Treasury Department would likely be able to continue paying government bills until late summer, at which point Congress must take action to raise or suspend the debt ceiling. Once the US Treasury's so-called "extraordinary measures" or special accounting techniques are exhausted, the US government will face the risk of debt default unless legislators and the President agree to lift the restrictions on the government's borrowing capacity. The history of the debt ceiling dates back to 1917, when the US Congress granted the Treasury more flexibility in borrowing to finance the US's participation in World War I, but with certain limits. In 1939, Congressional legislators approved the first modern aggregate debt limit of $45 billion, and since then, as spending has consistently exceeded tax revenue, the ceiling has been raised 103 times. As of last October, public debt accounted for 98% of the US's GDP, compared to just 32% in October 2001. The US Congressional Budget Office had previously warned that the US government's debt level is likely to surpass the all-time high set after World War II in just four years, despite the nonpartisan agency slightly lowering its deficit projections for the next decade. It is projected that by 2029, the total US government debt held by the public will reach 107% of GDP, exceeding the 106% record set in 1946 (just after World War II). By 2035, total debt is expected to reach $52.1 trillion, accounting for 118.5% of GDP.

SMM April 29 News: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, most domestic market metals rose, with only SHFE lead and SHFE nickel falling, SHFE lead down 0.18%, SHFE nickel down 0.14%. SHFE copper led the gains with a 0.3% increase. Alumina main contract fell 3.08%. In addition, lithium carbonate main contract fell 1.63%, polysilicon down 2.14%, silicon metal down 2.68%. European container shipping main contract plunged 7.83%. In the ferrous metals series, most rose, with only iron ore and stainless steel rising, iron ore up 0.28%, stainless steel up 0.16%. Rebar and HRC both fell over 1%, rebar down 1.21%, HRC down 1.26%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 2.36%, coke down 1.02%. In the overseas market, as of 15:04, most base metals rose, with only LME nickel falling, down 0.03%. LME zinc rose 0.76%, LME aluminum and LME tin both rose over 0.3%, LME aluminum up 0.31%, LME tin up 0.34%. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:04, COMEX gold fell 0.67%, COMEX silver down 0.11%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.47%, SHFE silver up 0.12%. As of 15:04 today's market 》Click to view SMM market board Macro Front Domestic: 【NDRC Allocates the Second Batch of 81 Billion Yuan in Ultra-Long-Term Special Treasury Bonds This Year to Continue Strong Support for Consumer Goods Trade-Ins】 According to the NDRC, the demand for consumer goods trade-ins has been very robust nationwide this year, with the first batch of subsidy funds already used at a high rate in most regions. Recently, the NDRC has issued a notice, in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance, to promptly allocate the second batch of 81 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to local governments, continuing strong support for consumer goods trade-ins. Next, the NDRC will fully leverage the inter-ministerial coordination mechanism of the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins" to strengthen overall promotion and tracking, urging relevant departments to expedite the review and disbursement of allocated funds, effectively reducing the financial pressure on enterprises, ensuring that the benefits directly reach consumers, and promoting the greater effectiveness of the consumer goods trade-in policy. 》Click for details 【Three Departments: Launch a Market Access Barriers Cleanup and Rectification Action to Promote the Construction of a Unified National Market】 The NDRC, Ministry of Commerce, and State Administration for Market Regulation have issued a notice on launching a market access barriers cleanup and rectification action to promote the construction of a unified national market. The focus of this cleanup and rectification is on various regulatory documents established and implemented in the form of local regulations, rules, administrative normative documents, and other policy documents that violate market access system requirements, as well as various practices by governments at all levels that improperly set market access barriers. For key and difficult issues with complex causes, strong feedback from business entities, high social attention, significant rectification difficulty, or long-standing unresolved issues, the NDRC will supervise and handle them in conjunction with relevant departments. For those who fail to complete problem verification and rectification within the specified time, or refuse to rectify, rectify inadequately, or conceal or falsely report, they will be notified and interviewed, with key supervision. In serious cases, they will be reported to the State Council according to procedures. After reviewing and screening the problem clues reported by local governments, the NDRC will select typical cases for public notification and simultaneously include them in the national urban credit monitoring scope. ► On April 29, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.2029 yuan per US dollar US Dollar: As of 15:04, the US dollar index rose 0.25%. The US Treasury Department stated in a statement on Monday that it currently expects net borrowing from April to June to be $514 billion, higher than the $123 billion estimated in February. As usual, the Treasury assumed in previous forecasts that the debt ceiling would be raised or suspended, but lawmakers are still negotiating on this issue. The market is cautiously awaiting further news on US trade policy, as well as key data such as the US PCE and non-farm payrolls to be released this week. Data: Today, the US March wholesale inventories month-on-month preliminary value, US April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, US March JOLTs job openings, Eurozone March seasonally adjusted money supply M3 annual rate, Eurozone April economic sentiment index, Eurozone April industrial sentiment index, Eurozone April consumer confidence index final value, Germany May Gfk consumer confidence index, and other data will be released. In addition, on April 29, the Tokyo Stock Exchange was closed for Showa Day. Crude Oil: As of 15:04, both markets fell, WTI crude down 0.98%, Brent crude down 0.91%. In recent days, the spot market for crude oil has shown signs of weakening. After unexpectedly accelerating production by 411,000 barrels per day in April, Kazakhstan, which has been severely overproducing recently, has not made a commitment to fulfill production cuts. OPEC+ will hold another production restriction meeting in May, with its production plan for June still undecided. Saudi Arabia may further accelerate production increases in June to pressure Kazakhstan, testing the internal unity of OPEC+, raising concerns in the crude oil market that supply surplus pressure may further intensify. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► April 29: SHFE aluminum operates at the 20,000 mark, aluminum billet processing fees remain firm 【Aluminum Billet Spot Daily Review】 ► Silver prices rise to catch up, spot market trading is sluggish before Labour Day holiday 【SMM Daily Review】

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Lead Ingot Supply Experiences Phased Reduction, Lead Price Trend May Maintain Fluctuating Trend] Recently, the imbalance in scrap battery supply has been prominent. Last week, due to issues such as insufficient scrap materials and losses, the data on production reductions and suspensions by secondary lead enterprises increased, resulting in a phased reduction in lead ingot supply. The inventory at social warehouses surrounding lead consumption hubs continued to decline.

On April 23, at the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference & Copper Industry Expo - Main Forum, Hou Zhenhai, Chief Strategist of Straits Financial Group, delivered a speech named "Global Macroeconomic Uncertainties and Outlook for Commodity Allocation".

Amid uncertain US trade prospects, stock market turbulence, and global sell-offs of US assets, S&P Global Ratings warned that massive debt levels and political dysfunction could trigger another downgrade of the US credit rating. S&P Warns: Possible Downgrade of US Credit Rating In its latest report this week, S&P Global Ratings hinted that it might lower the US credit rating from its current AA+ by one notch if anything worsens the US fiscal situation in the future. "The outcome of the US government's budget process and policy negotiations in the coming months will help determine policies and inform our view of US sovereign credit," S&P Global wrote in the report. "These discussions could influence our assessment of the US fiscal situation." Among the three major international credit rating agencies, S&P was the first to downgrade the US credit rating: back in 2011, after a Congressional impasse over raising the national borrowing limit nearly left the Treasury unable to pay its bills, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA+. At that time, the total US national debt was about $15 trillion, with the portion held by the public accounting for 66% of GDP. Today, the US national debt has more than doubled, reaching $36 trillion, with the portion held by the public roughly equal to 100% of GDP. As the US debt outlook continues to deteriorate, Fitch also downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA+ in August last year. In the same year, Moody's revised its US credit rating outlook from stable to negative. In March this year, Moody's warned that rising interest rates are inflating the cost of government debt financing. The agency stated, "The US fiscal strength will continue to decline for many years." What Threats Does the US Fiscal Face? In fact, S&P has several concerns about the policies pushed by Trump and his Republican allies in Congress. Besides the massive scale of government debt, the company also mentioned a budget gimmick being considered by Congressional Republicans—an accounting method known as "current policy baseline," which would significantly underestimate the amount by which tax cuts would increase debt, even allowing for larger tax cuts financed by borrowing. S&P stated, "The adoption of unprecedented accounting methods in the budget resolution and reconciliation process exacerbates the lack of clarity about future deficit levels." This sounds like a strong hint to US Congress members: if you try to manipulate the books by altering accounting methods, your rating will be downgraded. Another warning message from S&P to Congress involves the debt ceiling— US Congress members will discuss raising the debt ceiling at some point this summer. S&P stated in the report, "We expect Congress to act in a timely manner to pass some form of legislation to raise or suspend the debt ceiling before the Treasury's space is exhausted." In other words, if the 2011 debt ceiling impasse and the threat of default reappear, it would be a very bad outcome. More Risks Brought by Trump Other concerns of S&P Global Ratings are mainly related to Trump. First is the tariff issue— most economists expect this to increase the cost and price of US goods, slow US economic growth, and push up US unemployment. Some economists have already warned that Trump's protectionism could lead to a recession. An economic downturn is naturally unfavorable for the federal budget, as tax revenues from US businesses and individuals would decline, and Congress typically needs to pass fiscal stimulus measures during economic downturns to accelerate recovery—historically, the largest budget deficits have occurred during recessions. S&P also mentioned the uncertainty brought by Trump's large-scale deportation plan. Mass deportations could lead to a significant loss of labor and thereby reduce economic growth. The company noted that, compared to other countries with similar ratings, the US exhibits "a higher degree of political polarization and difficulty in achieving bipartisan cooperation to strengthen US fiscal dynamics." What Consequences Would a Downgrade Bring? When S&P first downgraded the US rating in 2011, it triggered a massive sell-off in the US stock market and raised concerns about a US debt crisis. But since then, the US debt crisis has not been triggered. For a long time, the US Treasury has been able to continue issuing bonds at the world's lowest interest rates, meaning investors still consider the US to have relatively high credit and see no unusual risk in buying US bonds. However, this situation may change due to the tariff war initiated by Trump. In recent weeks, the hefty tariffs imposed by Trump on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of imported goods have begun to alter global investment flows, indicating a loss of confidence in the US as an economic safe haven. In recent weeks, both US stocks and bonds have seen significant sell-offs. Given that US Treasury bonds are typically the safe asset of choice for investors fleeing risk assets like US stocks, the rare simultaneous sell-off of US bonds and stocks suggests a shaken confidence in US Treasury bonds. If S&P does downgrade the rating again, especially if Moody's also takes action (given its warning in March), investors may become even more wary of US assets, and the "Sell USA" trade could gain momentum.