\LME aluminium prices have retreated steadily from their late-May peak, falling from nearly $3,680 per metric ton to around $3,480 per metric ton. More notably, the LME aluminium Cash-3M spread narrowed sharply over just one week, dropping from a cash premium of $104.56 per metric ton on June 1 to $15.17 per metric ton on June 9, a loss of nearly $90 per metric ton. This marks the steepest contraction in the backwardation structure since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.

June 10, 2026 The price of gold has triggered a technical warning signal by falling below its 200-day moving average. If upcoming U.S. inflation data reinforces expectations of persistently high interest rates, market observers warn that the precious metal could face an extended correction down to $4,000 per ounce. While short-term momentum is clearly weakened, many observers believe the long-term, structural investment thesis for gold remains intact. Technical sell-off accelerates After the gold price failed to establish itself permanently above the $4,500 mark, the subsequent break of the closely watched 200-day moving average has noticeably intensified selling pressure. Analysts at FOREX.com, for example, view this as having permanently damaged the short-term chart picture. The next critical support level is now a long-term upward trend line in the $4,230 range, followed by the annual lows from March at around $4,100. Should this zone also fall, the market will lack solid technical support levels, making a pullback to the psychologically important $4,000 mark likely. A look at the historical pattern in September 2023 highlights the relevance of this signal: At that time, the price plummeted by another 5 percent after breaking the 200-day moving average. Whether the bears retain control will thus be decided primarily by the key zone between $4,230 and $4,100. U.S. Inflation and a Restrictive Fed as Headwinds The fundamental headwind for the non-interest-bearing precious metal comes primarily from U.S. monetary policy . The upcoming US Consumer Price Index is eagerly awaited, with core inflation forecast to rise by 2.9 percent year-over-year. A hotter data point is likely to reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates at elevated levels for longer, which strengthens the US dollar and weighs on gold via rising opportunity costs (US Treasury yields). Other analysts also expect continued volatility with a moderate downward trend in the short term, given the robust U.S. labor market and persistent inflationary pressures. As long as bond yields remain high and hopes for rate cuts fade, only extreme geopolitical upheavals are likely to be able to reverse this macroeconomic trend. Structural drivers support the long-term outlook Despite the gloomy short-term outlook, experts advise against losing sight of the long-term perspective. They point to the ongoing diversification of global central bank reserves, as central banks worldwide are increasing their gold holdings to specifically reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar. Additionally, drastically rising government debt, fiscal risks in major industrialized nations, and geopolitical instability act as reliable, strategic drivers of demand. In this context, it is emphasized that the fundamental investment thesis remains intact. Systemic risks in the global financial system and real inflationary pressures persist. Two different time horizons are thus currently colliding in the gold market: While the technical picture and the interest rate environment point to further turbulence in the short term, gold remains supported in the long term by central bank purchases and systemic currency risks. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-under-pressure-how-hard-will-the-correction-hit

June 9, 2026 The price of gold is stagnating despite tensions in the Middle East. While the risk of escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is supporting safe-haven demand, the robust U.S. labor market is dampening hopes for imminent interest rate cuts. Macroeconomic Factors: U.S. Labor Market and Interest Rate Path The latest US labor market data is weighing on non-interest-bearing precious metals and capped the recovery from the day’s lows. In May, 172,000 new jobs were created in the US non-farm sector (primarily in the leisure/hospitality, local government, and healthcare sectors). The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. A resilient labor market gives the Federal Reserve leeway to keep interest rates high for longer. However, higher yield expectations increase the opportunity costs of gold investments. Other market indicators & dates: US Dollar Index: Fell to 99.96 points after previously reaching a two-month high. A weaker dollar tends to support gold. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield: Moved in the range of 4.6%, limiting the upside potential for precious metals. Focus: Upcoming U.S. consumer price data (CPI) on Wednesday and producer prices (PPI) on Thursday will provide new signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Geopolitics: Strait of Hormuz and oil price linkage Following an exchange of fire between Israel and Iran, concerns about supply bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz flared up. Under pressure from the U.S., both sides suspended the attacks for the time being. For the gold market, the development is a double-edged sword: Geopolitical risks drive up the gold price as a hedge, but at the same time, energy prices are rising. Brent crude briefly climbed above $98 and was last trading at $94.78 per barrel; WTI stood at around $91.83 per barrel. Persistently high oil prices fuel inflation, which in turn can lead to more restrictive Fed interest rates and weigh on gold. Key technical levels In the short term, the interplay of inflation data and geopolitics will determine whether precious metals test their resistance levels or approach support levels. Gold Resistance: The first relevant zone lies between $4,350 and $4,370. A sustained breakout opens the path toward $4,530 to $4,550. Above that, the 50-day moving average stands at around $4,624. Support levels: The $4,300 mark is technically crucial. A break below this zone could push the price down to $4,180 to $4,200. Silver Resistance: Above $70, the next target is $71 to $72. The 50-day moving average stands at approximately $76.12. Support: The zone between $65 and $66 offers an initial support level. A slide below this level brings the $61 mark into focus. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-at-at-an-inflection-point-inflation-and-hormus-in-the-spotlight

SMM, June 10: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market weakened across the board. SHFE lead fell 0.43%, SHFE tin dropped 1.89%, SHFE nickel lost 2.29%, SHFE copper edged down 0.33%, SHFE aluminum declined 0.85%, and SHFE zinc slipped 0.12%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.11%, the most-traded alumina contract gained 3.21%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract added 0.53%, the most-traded silicon metal contract increased 2%, while the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.63%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.59%, rebar added 0.13%, HRC edged lower, and stainless steel fell 0.59%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract dropped 3.13%, and the most-traded coke contract declined 1.35%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper edged up 0.06%, LME aluminum fell 1.03%, LME lead dropped 0.38%, LME zinc declined 0.24%, LME tin lost 0.92%, and LME nickel slipped 0.36%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 1.99%, touching an intraday low of $4,195.5/oz, while COMEX silver dropped 1.82%. In domestic precious metals, the most-traded SHFE gold contract declined 3.79%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract slumped 6.79%. Ilya Spivak, global macro head at Tastylive, noted that the real drivers lie in shifting expectations around US Fed policy, rising yields, and a stronger US dollar. "I think these factors are all weighing on gold," he said. Spivak added that if gold breaks below the $4,100 mark, support levels would fundamentally change, and by the end of the year, we may be looking at the next threshold of $3,500. (Jin10 Data APP) Meanwhile, by the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 5.43%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 2.77%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container freight futures contract climbed 3.2% to 3,993 points. As of 11:39 on June 10, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated in the 24,575-24,745 yuan/mt range, Shuangyan was mainly transacted at 24,675-24,835 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream deals were at 24,505-24,675 yuan/mt. In early trading, the market quoted premiums of 20-30 yuan/mt against the SMM average price, with no quotes against the futures contract yet... Macro Front China side: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): May CPI Rose 1.2% YoY, PPI Rose 3.9% YoY, with PPI Continuing to Increase] NBS data showed that in May 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% YoY. Specifically, urban CPI rose 1.3% YoY, while rural CPI rose 1.1% YoY; food prices fell 1.7% YoY, while non-food prices rose 1.9% YoY; consumer goods prices rose 1.6% YoY, while services prices rose 0.8% YoY. In the January–May average, national CPI rose 1.0% YoY. In May, national CPI edged down 0.1% MoM. In May 2026, China’s national producer price index (PPI) rose 3.9% YoY and 0.5% MoM. The industrial producer purchasing price index rose 5.8% YoY and 1.3% MoM. In the January–May average, PPI rose 1.0% YoY, while the purchasing price index rose 1.6% YoY. Within the purchasing price index in May, price increases were led by non-ferrous metals and wires (22.0%), chemical raw materials (11.8%), fuels and power (10.0%), textile raw materials (2.5%), and ferrous metals (0.3%); meanwhile, declines were seen in building materials and non-metallic products (-5.5%) and agricultural and sideline products (-1.6%). Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on the CPI and PPI data for May 2026. The PBOC conducted a 159-billion-yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. No reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index slipped 0.01% to 99.94. Renewed conflict between the US and Iran drove up both the dollar and oil prices, exacerbating market concerns over inflation and interest rate hikes. Markets are awaiting key US inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. (Jinshi Data APP) At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI data. This is also the most closely watched heavyweight inflation data ahead of the new Fed Chair Warsh's policy rate meeting next week. According to forecasts, four institutions, including Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, project the overall CPI YoY for May to be in the 4.17%–4.3% range, all above April’s 3.81% . However, their MoM core CPI forecasts are generally below market consensus. (Wall Street CN) According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through June is 98.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 1.8%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July stands at 85.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 12.6%, and that of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.6%. CSC Financial pointed out that, in the short term, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike remains low, and the market's concerns about Fed tightening are mainly at the expectations level, built on assumptions of sticky US inflation and a persistently hot labor market. CME FedWatch data shows that markets outside China expect the most likely Fed rate hike to begin at the end of October 2026. The current global liquidity tightening and market adjustment represent a front-running reaction to expectations for a Fed rate hike in Q4. For China’s bond market, the increase in expectations of Fed tightening is not a negative factor. China’s bond market is relatively independent and has a relatively small correlation with US Treasuries. Moreover, given the ample liquidity in China, the expected tightening of liquidity outside China and the adjustment in equity markets may not rule out the possibility of driving capital into the bond market, supporting current levels of long-dated bonds. Going forward, the 10-year Chinese government bond yield is expected to continue to fluctuate around the 1.70% mark; a break below 1.70% would still require the emergence of incremental domestic information. Data Releases: Today, the following data will be released: US May unadjusted CPI YoY, US May seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US May seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US May unadjusted core CPI YoY, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision due June 10, and China May M2 money supply YoY (pending). In addition, the following should be watched: the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision announcement; and a monetary policy press conference by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers. Crude Oil: As of 11:39, both oil benchmarks rose, with WTI up 0.94% and Brent up 0.98%. Renewed supply concerns stemming from the re-erupting conflict in the Middle East, together with declining US crude oil inventories, have provided support to oil prices. Data: US API crude oil inventories for the week ended June 5: -9.119 million barrels (expected -3.421 million, prior -6.757 million). US API gasoline inventories for the week ended June 5: -1.191 million barrels (expected -614,000, prior 3.454 million). (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday local time that, due to the loss of over 11 million barrels per day of crude oil production in the Middle East caused by the conflict, major consuming countries are drawing down inventories at an unprecedented pace to fill the supply gap, and OECD oil inventories are heading towards their lowest levels since at least 2003. EIA stated that, under its current assumption that shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before early 2027, total OECD oil inventories will fall to just below 2.3 billion barrels by December. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

June 8, 2026 Increased mine production, rising recycling, but declining overall demand—at first glance, not a typical environment for new price records. Nevertheless, the experts at Metals Focus forecast an average gold price of $4,920 per ounce for 2026, representing a 43 percent increase from the previous year. This apparent contradiction stems from a profound structural shift in the gold market that has far-reaching implications for the industry. Bullion and coins overtake gold jewelry for the first time The most significant change is taking place on the demand side: In 2026, physical investments in bullion and coins are expected to replace gold jewelry as the largest source of demand for the first time. This trend was already emerging in 2025, when physical investment demand climbed 16 percent to a twelve-year high—driven primarily by growth in China (up 28 percent) and India (up 17 percent). At the same time, global jewelry production plummeted by 19 percent to a five-year low of 1,646 tons. For 2026, Metals Focus anticipates a further decline of 11 percent. The historically high price level is forcing consumers and manufacturers to opt for lighter pieces, lower karat grades, or more affordable alternatives such as gold-filled materials. Consequently, gold is not disappearing from demand but is shifting its primary function from a consumer good to a pure investment product. Unlike jewelry purchases, this investment demand is far less price-sensitive and is primarily driven by motives such as asset protection, diversification, and hedging against currency risks and uncertainties. Lower overall demand—but a higher gold price Although overall demand is expected to decline in 2026 due in part to a slowdown in the jewelry sector, the high quality of buyers supports the projected price surge. Simply looking at total tonnage falls short in the current environment. As early as 2025, gold-backed exchange-traded products (ETFs) recorded their highest annual inflows since 2020, at 803 tons. The driving forces behind this were tariffs, growing U.S. government debt, doubts about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy independence, and geopolitical tensions. These factors will persist in 2026 and will be exacerbated by high stock market valuations and uncertainties regarding the long-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar. The precious metal is thus assuming an increasingly strategic role in investment portfolios. Central banks are buying less—but still at unusually high levels This strategic importance is also reflected in the behavior of central banks. Although net purchases fell by 22 percent to 848 tons in 2025, after having exceeded the 1,000-ton mark for three consecutive years, geographically broad-based demand remains well above pre-2022 levels. Sales were limited to a few countries and served primarily to rebalance portfolios following the recent gold rally. Despite headwinds such as the ongoing energy crisis, Metals Focus expects historically high net purchases in 2026 as well. While the pace of buying is slowing, the trend toward greater diversification of official reserves remains intact. Gold mines are producing more—but supply is slow to respond On the supply side, global mine production reached a new record of 3,817 tons (up 2 percent) in 2025. Growth was driven by new mines, expansions, and higher contributions from small-scale mining. A further increase of 2.4 percent to 3,907 tons is forecast for 2026, with all regions except Oceania and Europe expected to grow. Given the enormous price surge, this supply growth is nevertheless moderate and underscores that even strong price signals in the mining industry do not immediately lead to massive jumps in production. Compounding the issue is the fact that producers are grappling with significant cost increases: Global all-in sustaining costs (AISC) rose by 12 percent to $1,552 per ounce in 2025 due to inflation and taxes. For junior companies, this means that while a higher gold price improves the profitability of projects, factors such as grade, location, and infrastructure are increasingly decisive for success in light of cost trends. Why even record prices are barely triggering a recycling wave The supply of recycled gold is also responding sluggishly. In 2025, the volume rose by only 2.8 percent to 1,404 tons—a 13-year high that is, however, subdued relative to price trends. A 5.1 percent increase is forecast for 2026. This apparent contradiction can be explained by owners’ strong desire for security: precisely because of prevailing uncertainties, scrap gold is being sold less frequently. Paradoxically, the very factor driving prices is simultaneously limiting the additional supply that would normally cool the market. The Iran War Delays the Next Uptrend Short-term volatility remains a factor, however. Following new record highs at the start of 2026, a previously overbought market combined with shifting U.S. interest rate expectations led to a correction. The war in Iran is further fueling inflation, which limits the scope for interest rate cuts in the U.S. and drives up bond yields. In the short term, this is a headwind for gold, although geopolitical conflicts usually support the metal. Metals Focus, however, expects the rally to return once the situation calms down. The underlying premise: Policymakers are likely to tolerate slightly higher inflation rather than jeopardize economic growth through overly restrictive monetary policy. Conclusion: In 2026, it’s no longer just volume that counts in the gold market The market environment for 2026 is more complex than a purely quantitative analysis of supply and demand would suggest. The buyer structure is changing, strategic players are acting less price-sensitive, and structural drivers such as global debt and geopolitical risks remain. At the same time, supply from mines and recycling is growing only slowly. What is decisive, therefore, is not so much the absolute tonnage of total demand, but rather the fact that gold is undergoing a permanent shift from a consumer good to a strategic investment and reserve asset. The projected average price of $4,920 thus does not reflect mere exaggeration, but rather is an expression of a new, more resilient market structure. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-in-2026-new-market-structure-paves-the-way-for-a-rise-to-usd4-920

Jun 05, 2026 - 12:31 AM Rising inflation pressures due to the ongoing war in Iran mean investors will have to wait a little longer for gold to break out of its current consolidation phase, according to Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank. Fritsch noted that gold’s price action since the war started has been counterintuitive to fundamental market beliefs. The precious metal, traditionally seen as an inflation hedge, has fallen even as the global energy crisis pushes consumer prices higher. At the same time, despite the chaos in the Middle East, gold has been unable to attract a safe-haven bid. However, Fritsch explained that the gold market is currently struggling as market expectations around U.S. monetary policy have shifted dramatically since the Iran conflict began. “Before the start of the Iran war, market participants had expected the Fed to cut interest rates by around 50 basis points this year. Since the start of the war and the resulting rise in oil prices, there has been a noticeable shift in interest rate expectations. Fed Funds futures currently imply a US key interest rate of around 3.8% at the end of the year. With an effective Fed rate of just over 3.6%, the market therefore expects the Fed to raise interest rates later this year. A 25-basis-point rate hike is fully priced in by spring 2027,” he said. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see more than a 50% chance of a rate hike in December. The threat of rising interest rates is increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset. In this environment, Commerzbank has adjusted its year-end price target. The German bank sees gold prices ending the year at around $4,800 an ounce, down from its initial target of $5,000. “This implies some upside potential for the coming months, as our new base-case scenario envisages a two-month transition period, followed by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a decline in Brent oil prices, which should reverse the current expectations of interest rate hikes,” Fritsch said. The updated outlook comes as gold prices continue to struggle below $4,500 an ounce. Spot gold was last trading at $4,483.95 an ounce, up 1.11% on the day. However, Commerzbank’s updated target suggests the market could see an 8% rally from current prices by year-end. Fritsch said there is still potential for gold, as Commerzbank does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates this year. The bank’s economists forecast that rates will remain unchanged and that the next move is still likely to be a cut. However, Fritsch said the next rate cut is not expected until at least the second quarter of 2027. “We therefore maintain our price forecast of USD 5,200 per troy ounce for the end of 2027,” he said. “The structural factors supporting gold remain entirely intact. These include eroding confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency, which is likely to lead to further gold purchases by central banks. Investor interest in gold is also likely to remain high. This is supported by the already high and rapidly rising levels of government debt, which are leading to monetary policy that is too loose when measured against inflation.” Along with its revised gold forecast, Fritsch has also downgraded his silver outlook. Commerzbank expects silver prices to end the year at around $80 an ounce. “In addition to the lowered gold price forecast, weaker industrial demand for silver also points to a slightly lower silver price. According to the latest assessment by the Silver Institute, industrial demand is set to decline for the second consecutive year, falling to a four-year low. Nevertheless, the silver market remains tight, which is why we expect the silver price to rise in the coming year,” he said. Commerzbank projects silver prices to end 2027 at around $90 an ounce, down from its previous target of $95 an ounce. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-04/commerzbank-not-giving-metals-sees-4800oz-gold-80oz-silver-year-end

Jun 05, 2026, 02:40 AM Import duty hike and volatile prices keep Indian gold demand subdued. China premiums narrow as cautious sentiment weighs on physical buying. Analysts warn smuggling risk rises as domestic discounts widen sharply. India’s gold demand remains subdued as buyers stay cautious amid volatile prices and higher import duties, with premiums narrowing in China as well. Analysts warn that regulatory tightening and inflation risks could keep consumption weak through 2026. Domestic gold prices were trading around INR 158,400 per 10 grams on Friday. India is one of the largest consumers of gold in the world. Subdued demand in India Indian gold demand has slowed, with buyers hesitant due to volatile prices and elevated import duties, according to a Reuters report . Traders said consumers are reluctant to commit to purchases, particularly after the government raised the import duty to 15% in May, the steepest increase on record. “Demand is very weak. People are waiting for prices to stabilize,” one Mumbai-based dealer told Reuters. The World Gold Council (WGC) noted in its May update that jewellery and bar-and-coin demand could decline by 50–60 tonnes (10% year-on-year) in 2026 due to the duty hike. Domestic prices are trading at a deep discount to landed prices, widening from about $14/oz before the hike to nearly $150/oz afterwards, as ample supply and profit-taking weighed on premiums. Regulatory tightening and market impact The duty hike was part of broader measures aimed at conserving foreign exchange reserves amid geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening rupee. Banks paused bullion imports for over a month earlier this year due to delays in government notifications, further disrupting supply. Large chain jewellers reported panic buying immediately after the duty announcement but expect slower sales ahead. Smaller retailers, already pressured by high prices, are struggling with reduced volumes and margins. China premiums narrow The premiums in China, the world’s top consumer, have narrowed, reflecting cautious sentiment. Buyers are hesitant as global prices remain volatile, and local demand has softened. This trend mirrors India’s slowdown, suggesting broader regional weakness in physical gold consumption. The WGC’s May commentary noted that gold fell 1% in May, finishing at $4,546/oz, as positive risk sentiment and ETF outflows weighed on prices. Analysts warned that the Federal Reserve may need to hike rates later this year as inflation pressures mount, which could prolong headwinds for gold. “Gold is vulnerable, perched on its 200-day moving average, in what looks like a declining channel,” the WGC said. Smuggling concerns and outlook Past trends suggest that higher import duties increase unofficial inflows. After the 2013 duty hike, smuggled gold rose sevenfold within a year. A similar pattern was seen after the 2022 hike to 15%, when unofficial imports surged from 17 tonnes to nearly 50 tonnes. Analysts caution that the latest increase could again encourage smuggling, widening the domestic–international price gap. India’s gold demand is expected to remain muted in the near term, with jewellery purchases subdued outside of weddings and festivals. Investment demand is more sensitive to duty changes and could decline further if inflation persists. Globally, ETF flows remain lacklustre, and the possibility of Fed rate hikes poses additional risks. For now, the market is caught between regulatory tightening, volatile prices, and cautious consumers. Unless prices stabilize and policy pressures ease, India’s gold demand is likely to stay weak through the rest of 2026, with broader implications for global bullion trade. Source： https://invezz.com/news/2026/06/05/india-gold-demand-weakens-as-soaring-prices-keep-buyers-on-the-sidelines/

June 2, 2026 The magic number is wavering, but it’s holding: The price of gold is currently struggling to break through the technically and psychologically crucial barrier of $4,500 per ounce. While the precious metal remains in positive territory, a surprisingly robust U.S. labor market is creating significant economic headwinds. For commodity investors, the key question now is: Is gold merely gathering strength at these high levels for the next breakout, or is the U.S. economy providing the Federal Reserve with the perfect excuse for a more restrictive interest rate policy? JOLTS data blows past forecasts The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) from the U.S. Department of Labor sent an unmistakable signal to the markets: Demand for labor in the U.S. is booming. Instead of the stagnation at 6.87 million job openings for April that economists had consensus-wise expected, the figure shot up to a whopping 7.62 million. That is not only a massive jump from the March figure (6.89 million), but also a substantial increase of around half a million available jobs compared to April 2025. A closer look at the sectors reveals a two-pronged economic dynamic: While the number of job openings in professional and business services rose sharply, the finance and insurance sector saw noticeable declines. Focus on Fed Policy: Headwinds for the Interest-Free Precious Metal Despite this extremely strong data, there was no immediate shock reaction in the gold market. Spot gold recently held steady at $4,502.90 per ounce, representing a moderate daily gain. However, the precious metal was unable to break out decisively to the upside. For analysts, the danger is obvious: such a resilient labor market gives the Federal Reserve (Fed) the necessary leeway to avoid being pressured into premature monetary easing in the fight against inflation. In this environment, even another interest rate hike by year-end is back in the spotlight for traders. Since rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing investments like gold, the price automatically comes under pressure. Conclusion: The stalemate continues In the short term, the zone around $4,500 remains the absolute key area. As long as there are no dynamic follow-up purchases here to confirm this level as solid support, caution is advised. The gold market is caught between simmering inflation concerns and the prospect of persistently high interest rates. The coming weeks will show whether the JOLTS report was merely a statistical outlier or marks the beginning of a reassessment of Fed policy. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/the-battle-for-usd4-500-why-the-hot-u-s-job-market-is-becoming-a-stress-test-for-gold

June 1, 2026 The price of gold fell at the start of trading in Europe, slipping below the $4,500 mark. The precious metal came under pressure after optimism waned over the weekend regarding negotiations between the U.S. and Iran aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, energy prices rebounded, with Brent crude oil gaining 3% from Friday’s closing price. This development has reignited inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance. This has strengthened demand for the U.S. dollar and created headwinds for gold prices due to the inverse correlation between the two assets. Against this backdrop, markets will remain focused on the ongoing talks between the U.S. and Iran, which, alongside the release of key U.S. economic data, are expected to remain a major driver of price movements. This week will see the release of the PMIs for the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. Any surprises in these data releases could recalibrate expectations regarding the future course of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, thereby influencing demand for the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the movement of gold prices. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-prices-in-the-spotlight-iran-talks-and-u-s-data-are-driving-the-market

May 29, 2026 A crumbling foundation for U.S. growth, coupled with stubborn inflation and renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, are exacerbating the Federal Reserve’s macroeconomic dilemma. For investors in real assets, this mix of data recently sent a clear signal: while stock markets are struggling to digest monetary policy uncertainty, precious metals have posted significant gains. Spot gold rebounded noticeably, and industrially driven silver rose even more dynamically. U.S. growth falters – inflation remains hot The U.S. economy is losing momentum faster than expected. Economic growth for the first quarter was revised down significantly from the previously reported 2.0% to an annualized 1.6%. This slowdown temporarily eased pressure on bond yields. In contrast, inflation remains stubbornly high, causing headaches for the Federal Reserve: The PCE price index for April rose 0.4% month-over-month and remains at a high 3.8% year-over-year. The core PCE index (excluding food and energy), which is crucial for monetary policy, rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year. Both indicators thus remain well above the official stability target of 2%. For the gold price, it was primarily the interplay of these factors that tipped the scales on Thursday: The combination of weaker growth and a slightly cooler monthly core PCE figure eased concerns about further interest rate hikes, causing the dollar index (-0.1% to 99.16) and yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to decline slightly. Since physical precious metals do not yield interest, their relative attractiveness increased as a result of this stabilization. Geopolitical powder keg in the Strait of Hormuz In addition to U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz is driving up risk premiums in the markets. The critical waterway, through which a large portion of global crude oil exports passes, remains fiercely contested. Over the past 48 hours, ongoing skirmishes in the area have kept volatility high. Although a preliminary 60-day framework plan is currently being negotiated—which calls for an extension of the ceasefire, the reopening of shipping lanes without fees, and a resumption of nuclear talks—a final agreement has yet to be reached. For the real assets sector, this results in two opposing effects: A diplomatic solution would dampen oil prices and ease inflation concerns, which could weaken the dollar and support precious metals. Further military escalation, on the other hand, would further fuel energy prices (WTI currently at $88.90, Brent at $92.72) and thus global inflation, forcing the Fed to adopt a restrictive stance. Conclusion: In the short term, the gold price remains caught between weakening U.S. economic data and geopolitically driven inflation risks. However, the fundamentals for hard assets appear extremely robust in this stagflationary environment. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-caught-in-a-stagflation-dilemma-u-s-weakness-meets-the-hormuz-crisis