[SMM Steel] The European Union is considering raising out-of-quota steel tariffs to 50% while cutting duty-free quotas to 18.3 million mt, with potential implementation from July 1, 2026. In the short term, this may reduce export volumes and increase costs for Vietnamese shipments, as the EU accounts for over 20% of Vietnam’s steel exports (~$1.4 billion in 2025). The tighter regime is likely to weaken competitiveness and force exporters to redirect cargoes to other markets.

[SMM Steel] The European Union is finalizing a plan to double out-of-quota tariffs to 50% and cut duty-free quotas by 47% to 18.3 million mt, with potential implementation from July 1, 2026. All trading partners will be subject to quotas, while debate continues over whether unused quotas can be rolled over. In the short term, stricter quotas and higher tariffs are likely to limit import volumes and support EU domestic prices.

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 6 – April 10), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 502.9 yuan/gram and closed at 521.45 yuan/gram, up 19.2 yuan/gram or 3.82% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 529.5 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 496.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 377.85 yuan/gram and closed at 385.05 yuan/gram, up 7.65 yuan/gram or 2.03% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 399.85 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 366.2 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,133 lots with a total turnover of 9.348 billion yuan and open interest of 15,303 lots, a WoW decrease of 1,287 lots. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 11,379 lots with a total turnover of 4.348 billion yuan and open interest of 7,216 lots, a WoW increase of 88 lots. US-Iran conflict, Israel launched its most intense airstrikes on Lebanon to date. On April 9, the Speaker of Iran's Parliament issued a statement saying that three key provisions in the proposal (comprehensive ceasefire, airspace security, and uranium enrichment rights) had been violated before negotiations even began, and under such circumstances, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations would be unreasonable. Iranian media issued a statement claiming the Strait of Hormuz had been fully closed. US Fed monetary policy, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson noted that employment faced downside risks while inflation faced upside risks. Nick Timiraos wrote that the ceasefire agreement made the US Fed's decision-making more difficult, as energy fluctuations persisted, leading to a prolonged period of rates being held steady. Tariff side, tariff policy has been one of the core political assets during Trump's administration. If high tariffs cannot be maintained through legal channels, his political influence and foreign negotiation leverage will be significantly weakened. After the "reciprocal tariffs" were overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration implemented temporary tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act in the short term to fill the policy vacuum, and in the medium and long-term may rely on Sections 232 and 301 to sustain a high-tariff policy framework, while threatening on social media to impose 50% tariffs on countries providing military weapons to Iran. Against this backdrop, the final determination in the anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Russian unwrought palladium is highly likely to maintain the affirmative conclusions of the preliminary ruling. Additionally, the tariff illegality ruling triggered massive tax refund pressures, exacerbating the US fiscal burden, and after geopolitical premiums are digested, will reinforce the "weak US dollar" logic. Palladium new demand, attention should be paid to China's fiberglass industry's transition from platinum to palladium. Starting April 2026, full-year testing will be conducted, and if successful, annual demand could reach 800,000 ounces, potentially offsetting declining demand from the automotive industry. Watch for palladium test results in the fiberglass sector. Watch for the US International Trade Commission's final-stage injury hearing on the palladium anti-dumping and countervailing duty case on April 27. Watch for the transition following LBMA's appointment of IBA as the platinum and palladium price auction administrator.

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has issued a new proposed decision rejecting the industry-backed Net Value Billing Tariff (NVBT) in favor of a structure based on the Avoided Cost Calculator (ACC). The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) warns that this move "virtually ensures" no new community solar projects will be developed, as the ACC rates are too low and volatile to secure private financing. While the CPUC's decision aims to modify existing "Green Tariff" programs and leverage federal grants for low-income residents, critics argue it prioritizes utility monopolies over market-based growth and the goals of AB 2316. The proposal is scheduled for a hearing as early as May 14, 2026.

[Price Review] Silver prices continued to weaken early this week amid the fermentation of Trump's speech from last week, but on Wednesday (April 8), supported by the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and a weaker US dollar, silver prices began to rebound, surging nearly 5% on April 8 alone. Short-term capital momentum, investment demand, and industrial demand had not recovered, with strong wait-and-see sentiment among market traders. Downstream transactions were still dominated by significantly reduced premium prices, and precious metal price gains remained relatively limited. Gold/silver ratio, as of April 8, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 62, maintaining a fluctuating trend in the short term. [Key Data] Bearish: US March seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls came in at 178,000, above expectations and the previous value US March unemployment rate was reported at 4.3%, below expectations and the previous value US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending April 3 was 308.1, above expectations and the previous value US API crude oil inventory for the week ending April 3 was above expectations and the previous value On April 7, the US and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, but Trump threatened that any country providing military weapons to Iran would be immediately subject to a 50% tariff. Data and macro news releases to watch next week include: On April 10 (Friday), the US is set to release March CPI data. Affected by energy price surges caused by the Iran war, the market widely expects inflation to rise significantly. Geopolitics, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf will lead an Iranian delegation to negotiate with the US in Islamabad, Pakistan, with the US side led by Vice President Vance. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz invited both the Iranian and US delegations to further negotiate in Islamabad on April 10 to reach a final agreement resolving all disputes. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz situation, cracks appeared in the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with Iran claiming three key provisions were violated, and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again. [Price Forecast] In the short term, the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict remains the primary factor determining whether silver prices will sustain the rebound, with insufficient support from short-term industrial demand and investment demand. China fundamentals side, silver ingot spot cargo had shown a slight surplus and inventory buildup trend. Due to relatively pessimistic expectations for the PV industry in April, just-in-time procurement demand for silver nitrate, silver powder, and silver paste enterprises declined. As the SHFE April delivery approaches, suppliers showed a notably increased intention to deliver and liquidate, and the upward trend in silver ingot social inventory is likely to continue. Although silver prices next week may be boosted by the ceasefire and a weaker US dollar, the overall in the doldrums situation for precious metals has not been fully reversed. Spot transaction expectations remain at a slight premium or shifting to parity, and close attention should continue to be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts and their impact on market sentiment and capital flow adjustments.

SMM Nickel News, April 9: Macro and Market News: (1) On April 8 local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that any country providing military weapons to Iran would face "immediate 50% tariffs" on "any and all goods" sold to the US, adding that the measure would "take effect immediately" with "no exclusions or exemptions." (2) US Fed March meeting minutes: more officials mentioned the possibility of rate hikes. The Fed's mouthpiece noted that the ceasefire made it harder for the Fed to decide. Spot Market: On April 9, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,350 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract opened higher today but then fluctuated downward, closing at 133,000 yuan/mt, down 0.02%. In the short term, Indonesia's policy tightening and cost support have built a solid floor for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand capped upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to operate in a core range of 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

RENOVA, Inc. has secured approximately ¥6.0 billion in project financing to develop a 90 MW/270 MWh lithium-ion battery energy storage system (BESS) in Kikugawa City, Shizuoka Prefecture. The facility, designed to stabilize the power grid without relying on subsidy schemes like feed‑in tariffs, is one of the largest of its kind in Japan and aims to support the country’s growing electricity demand tied to data centers and other infrastructure. Construction is planned to start soon, with operations expected to benefit grid balancing and renewable integration.

EnerSys is closing its Tijuana, Mexico facility and shifting production to its Springfield, Missouri plant, focusing on Thin Plate Pure Lead (TPPL) batteries designed for modern data centers. The $37 million restructuring also serves as a technology advancements and tariff-hedging strategy.

Latrobe Magnesium of Australia received a $2 million advance payment to accelerate its fly ash-to-magnesium demonstration project, with all products to be sold to the US market. Canada's West High Yield Resources signed a long-term sales agreement, marking a key step toward the commercialization of the Record Ridge magnesium mine. MG plans to mass-produce semi-solid-state battery car models by the end of 2026, and the application potential of magnesium materials in lightweight structures and battery components is expected to expand.

Greece installed roughly 1,893 MW of new 'PV' capacity in 2025, bringing its cumulative total to 11.5 GW, according to the Hellenic Association of Photovoltaic Companies ('Helapco'). While down from 2024's 2.57 GW, an additional 800 MW has been built and awaits grid connection in 2026. Growth was driven by small-scale feed-in tariff projects, self-consumption systems (270 MW), and merchant projects. 'Helapco' expects stronger market growth in 2026 but warns that rising solar curtailment and frequent negative electricity prices urgently require faster deployment of energy storage.