[SMM Aluminum Express News] Hindalco Industries said aluminum exports to Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have increased slightly as the company filled supply gaps created by the West Asia crisis. Around 70% of Hindalco’s aluminum is consumed domestically, while 25–30% is exported, with most overseas shipments directed to Northeast Asia. The company is also ramping up its new Aditya FRP rolling mill in Sambalpur, aiming to ease India’s aluminum can supply shortage by end-2026.

Walk the bauxite-alumina-aluminum value chain across Central Asia's five republics and the picture resolves quickly: one country runs the whole chain, one runs a piece of it, and three play no meaningful role at all. That picture, however, may be on the verge of a significant shift.

Indonesian authorities suspended over 50 mining firms during work plan inspections, while power issues are forcing Weda Bay industrial park to cut NPI output in June, keeping raw material costs elevated and global nickel prices high. As a result, Chinese Taiwan's upstream stainless steel mills are expected to announce flat-to-higher prices for June, following five consecutive months of increases. While semiconductor expansion and green energy infrastructure support local demand, sustained price hikes risk triggering buyer resistance among exporters. Market participants anticipate mills will balance high production costs against domestic market tolerance, pointing to a steady-to-slightly-higher pricing outcome.

[SMM Analysis] Weak Downstream Consumption Increases Pressure on Ex-China Steel Trading Price spread model, the price inversion of Chinese steel relative to overseas markets (India, Japan, Turkey, Black Sea) deepened further in late May. In particular, Chinese resources were cheaper compared to Indonesia, and the price spread was "narrowing at an accelerating pace." For pure ex-China inter-regional price spreads, India's decline was more pronounced compared to other regions, as weak domestic demand drove aggressive low-price bidding. Segment-wise, steel procurement sentiment in Southeast Asia became more cautious last week, with coil prices weakening. In Vietnam, coated steel and steel pipe prices began to slow down after a prolonged rally, and buyers became increasingly cautious about restocking ahead of the rainy season. Meanwhile, due to weak demand and growing pressure from low-priced imports, Formosa Ha Tinh Steel, a subsidiary of Taiwan's China Steel Corporation, also cut its HRC quotations by $5-10/mt to $598-603/mt CIF Vietnam. Although some Vietnamese downstream steel mills continued to raise or maintain prices due to earlier increases in raw material costs and tight spot supply, some producers had begun to limit orders or delay quotations while waiting for a clearer market direction. Notably, Indonesian HRC quotations remained competitive with relatively active exports, with FOB prices at around $565/mt. According to SMM survey, recent transaction prices to Vietnam were around $585/mt CFR. Turkey market: As the Middle East was set to enter a long holiday mid-week, most market participants had already exited early. According to SMM survey, no clear large-volume transactions were seen in the Turkish steel scrap market last week. Meanwhile, as domestic rebar demand remained sluggish, steel mills pushed their target purchase prices for European HMS 1&2 (80:20) scrap below $400/mt CFR to pass on the pressure. The recent euro depreciation and slight correction in ocean freight rates opened up some discount room for European sellers to a certain extent, but judging from actual market transactions, sellers still found it difficult to accept such low prices. At the same time, US exporters continued to hold prices firm at $420/mt CFR. In addition, mainstream quotations for Turkish domestic HRC remained at $660-675/mt EXW. Due to exchange rate fluctuations and high production costs, steel mills were striving to hold prices firm, but downstream buyers remained cautious in purchasing, with expected psychological prices 15-20 $/mt lower. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. 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[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Rose Slightly in Late Trading, Spot Market Largely Maintained a Cautious Stance]

The production ramp-up at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is expected to be positive for Taiwanese steelmakers. As semiconductor capacity continues to expand, related construction demand for plants, equipment support, and ancillary facilities is also expected to grow, providing support for steel consumption in Taiwan. The view suggests semiconductor expansion is increasingly seen as a structural positive for the island’s steel demand.

[SMM Steel] The US Department of Commerce finalized its antidumping administrative review on corrosion-resistant steel products from Taiwan covering July 2023-June 2024. Sheng Yu Steel and Prosperity Tieh Enterprise received final dumping margins of 0.00%, while Great Grandeul Steel Company Limited (Samoa) was assigned a weighted-average dumping margin of 0.99%. The USDOC maintained nearly all calculations from the preliminary findings, with only a minor spelling correction made to Prosperity’s corporate name.

SMM data shows that overseas stainless steel prices saw their first correction after six months of gains during May 18–22. Indonesia’s leading mills cut FOB 300 series stainless steel by USD30/mt, then kept prices stable through out the week. Policy-driven supply concerns from Indonesia and IWIP NPI cuts pushed LME nickel above USD 18,800/mt. The market focus shifted from price weakness to cost support, while demand remained resistant to high prices.

Chinese Taiwan's Yusco announced on 21st of May that its stainless steel product portfolio has received EPD certifications, covering carbon steel slabs and hot-rolled products, as well as austenitic and 400-series stainless steel slabs, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled products. The certification quantifies environmental performance across the full product lifecycle, an increasingly essential requirement for international market access as regulations such as the EU's CBAM take effect globally. Yusco has invested in process optimization and energy management to meet growing low-carbon supply chain demands, with the certification reinforcing its competitive position in the international green steel trade.

[Silicon Metal Prices Shift to Move Sideways, Attention on Operating Rate Changes on Both Supply and Demand Sides]: At the beginning of the week, spot silicon metal prices edged lower in a narrow range before shifting to move sideways. As of May 21, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt WoW, and #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt WoW. The futures market center shifted lower WoW. On Thursday, the most-traded SI2609 contract closed at 8,440 yuan/mt, down 215 yuan/mt WoW, with open interest at 308,000 lots, a WoW decrease of 7,000 lots. In terms of market transactions, as futures weakened at the beginning of the week, some downstream buyers and traders increased their rigid demand purchases, and the market transaction center moved lower WoW. Fundamentals side, both supply and demand of silicon metal are expected to increase in June. Supply side, the main driver is the increase in operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the rainy season. Demand side, the main factor is production resumption expectations of individual polysilicon enterprises.