Using the Energy Fuels-VAC merger as a lens, this article analyzes the U.S. playbook of acquiring de-risked, international rare earth assets. Despite sovereign backing creating a $110/kg price floor for non-Chinese supply, structural bottlenecks in heavy rare earth refining and limited market share (~15%) mean China’s dominance remains unshaken in the near term.

Taking Energy Fuels' $1.9 billion acquisition of Germany-based VAC as a starting point, this article systematically reviews the US's recent acquisition trajectory for mature international rare earth assets. From taking a controlling stake in the Serra Verde heavy rare earth mine in Brazil and acquiring the UK's LCM alloy plant, to securing capacity from Australia's Lynas, the US is leveraging state capital to bypass lengthy certification cycles through cross-border acquisitions, building a non-China "mining-refining-magnet" supply chain. The article notes that although the $110/kg government price anchor has rewritten project IRR models, Western magnet capacity accounts for only 15% of the global total, and the heavy rare earth closed loop cannot be verified until after 2027, making it difficult to shake China's dominance in the short term.

I. Japan Market This week, Japan MJP aluminum ingot spot premiums showed a continuous downtrend, with the average price at $384/mt on June 19 pulling back to $380/mt by June 26. Although premiums kept dipping, some traders lowered their offers proactively while others held prices firm. The demand side exhibited restocking for rigid demand, with downstream enterprises purchasing as needed. Short-term restocking activity was moderate, but there was no large-scale concentrated stockpiling, and overall purchasing volume was mild. Currently, the market trading pace is slowing down, spot lacks a trend-driven upward driver in the short term, and premiums follow the futures to stay in the doldrums. II. US Market This week, US Midwest DDP aluminum spot premiums edged up, from an average of $110.2/mt on June 19 to $110.35/mt this Friday. US market fundamentals still provided support: two major demand-side increases were being released, with aluminum semis demand for AI computing data centers surging, coupled with the concentrated commissioning of new production lines at NEV manufacturers such as Tesla, steadily boosting aluminum consumption for automotive lightweighting, keeping the digestion pace of domestic aluminum ingots high. The supply side faced constraints, with Middle East geopolitical disturbances disrupting ocean shipments of aluminum ingots, arrivals growth from outside China consistently lagging downstream demand growth, and domestic inventory continuing to destock, supporting premiums to stay high. However, the pressure logic for the outlook is gradually emerging: LME aluminum prices have already fallen to a staged low, cross-regional arbitrage windows remain open, and arrivals of aluminum ingots flowing into the US market will gradually increase. Coupled with this week’s premiums having stopped rising and weakened slightly, the tight supply-demand situation will marginally ease as external supply replenishes. It is anticipated that US spot premiums will stay high but face pressure going forward, with upside room essentially capped and a pullback adjustment possible. III. Thailand Market This week, Thailand spot premiums rose from $320/mt last Friday to $323/mt this Friday. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, some traders raised their offers. However, the upside momentum was weak, and the trading atmosphere remained sluggish. Local downstream users only maintained a hand-to-mouth purchase pattern for rigid demand, with low willingness for large-scale stockpiling. Meanwhile, continuous arrivals of aluminum semis exports from China, with large volumes of low-priced fabricated products flowing into the Southeast Asian end-use markets, directly diverted import orders for primary aluminum ingots and significantly squeezed local aluminum demand. [Data source statement: Other than publicly available information, all data are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are processed by SMM. For reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM

UK energy regulator Ofgem has provisionally selected 16 long-duration electricity storage (LDES) projects, representing 7,645 MW of capacity, under the first application window of the LDES cap and floor regime. Ofgem has published its "minded-to" decisions to support these projects and is currently seeking feedback via a public consultation that will close on August 7, 2026. The final cap and floor awards are expected to be announced in the autumn. The selected projects cover a variety of technologies, including pumped hydro, vanadium redox flow, compressed air, and lithium-ion batteries. The regulator noted that this capacity aligns with the upper end of the National Energy System Operator’s (NESO) recommended range. Further application windows are anticipated, subject to additional consultations this year and a decision on a second window by 2027.

Zimbabwe is actively considering using its abundant mineral resources to provide financing support for road and railway construction projects in cooperation with China through "resource-linked debt instruments," Finance Minister Ncube Mthuli disclosed on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Dalian. This model aims to use future revenue from natural resources as loan collateral to address the huge funding gap in infrastructure construction. Ncube Mthuli said that Zimbabwe has held preliminary discussions with China Railway Group on such financing arrangements. He told reporters: "We have explored debt instruments linked to resources and hope to use these instruments in the future to support infrastructure development, especially in the road and railway sectors." According to the plan, the Zimbabwean side will assess project costs, toll revenue potential, and the payback period for the required resource investments to determine the specific scale of resource collateral and repayment path. As Africa's largest lithium producer, Zimbabwe possesses rich mineral resources, but its infrastructure has lagged severely due to prolonged economic mismanagement and political instability. The African Development Bank estimates that the country requires approximately $34 billion to complete the modernization of its transport and logistics networks. The proposed resource-for-infrastructure scheme is similar in model to the $7 billion Sicomines copper-cobalt joint venture between the DRC and Chinese enterprises. As early as September 2025, Zimbabwe's president had promoted a railway upgrade cooperation plan worth $533 million during a meeting with senior officials of China Railway Group in Beijing. The project is to be implemented by Chuantie International, a subsidiary of China Railway with extensive experience in Africa. The scope of works includes the repair and reinforcement of existing lines and bridges, modernization of signaling systems, procurement of 17 locomotives and 209 freight cars, construction of five new stations, and the key trunk line project connecting Beitbridge and Harare. This trunk line leads directly to South Africa and serves as an important strategic corridor for Zimbabwe's foreign trade. Currently, the project's financing method and the official signing date are still under final negotiation. Zimbabwe's railway network was built during the colonial era and its annual freight volume once reached 12 million mt in the 1990s. However, decades of underinvestment, aging equipment, and foreign exchange shortages have caused the railway infrastructure to deteriorate continuously. Currently, annual freight volume has fallen to less than 3 million mt, representing only 15% of the historical peak. Many lines are overgrown with weeds, and a large number of locomotives and rolling stock are out of service, directly weakening the transport capacity for bulk commodities such as lithium, chrome ore, and coal to ports in Mozambique and South Africa. As a result, Chinese mining enterprises investing in Zimbabwe, such as Tsingshan Holding Group, Sinosteel Group, and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, are all facing bottlenecks in product shipments. The decline of the railway system has shifted a large volume of freight to roads, leading to a surge in the number of heavy trucks, which in turn exacerbates road congestion, traffic accidents, and pavement damage, creating a vicious cycle. To address this, the National Railways of Zimbabwe has incorporated this railway upgrade into a broader modernization framework and collaborated with 11 private enterprises. Among them, South Africa's Grindrod, through its subsidiary Beitbridge-Bulawayo Railway, has deployed 3 locomotives and 150 wagons to relieve current transport pressure. Meanwhile, the Zimbabwean side is also exploring cooperation with the University of Zimbabwe, leveraging the university's innovation center for localized railway technology R&D and talent cultivation to build capacity for long-term operations. Analysts point out that if this railway upgrade is successfully implemented, it will not only fully restore Zimbabwe's decaying railway network but also provide critical logistical support for the country to achieve its $12 billion mining target. It will also further deepen the strategic positioning of Chinese-funded enterprises in Zimbabwe's mining and infrastructure sectors. According to market dynamics, in recent years, especially this year, lithium ore arrivals from Zimbabwe have been continuously hampered, with insufficient inland transport capacity being one of the major bottlenecks constraining the smooth arrival of goods. With the implementation of the relevant logistics system upgrades, this situation is expected to be effectively alleviated, significantly improving the transport efficiency of lithium materials, thereby injecting solid strength into stabilizing the global supply of lithium resources. Source: Mining, compiled by SMM.

[SMM Aluminum Brief] In the petroleum coke market, domestic refineries were in concentrated maintenance, tightening supply of domestic petroleum coke. Demand-side divergence was evident: downstream carbon enterprises’ just-in-time procurement slightly recovered, and the month-end stockpiling period triggered some restocking demand, providing phased support. However, the anode material industry maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment, slowing the procurement pace of low-sulphur petroleum coke. At the same time, imported coke continued to arrive at ports, offsetting the benefits from tightening domestic supply and significantly curbing upward price momentum. Bullish and bearish factors balanced each other, so the domestic petroleum coke market likely consolidated in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Brief] This week, the aluminum fluoride market lacked clear trend drivers. High raw material costs continued to underpin market prices, and the industry operated with high costs, low profits, and low operating rates. In the short term, raw material prices dominated the market, downstream demand growth was insufficient, and the market continued the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. Next month, cost support for aluminum fluoride will be firm, but due to sluggish terminal procurement and slight downward adjustments in upstream hydrofluoric acid, room for price fluctuations will be limited.

[SMM Aluminum Brief] This week, China’s 97% fluorite wet powder market was stable, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt and price differences across regions. The supply side was constrained by safety and environmental protection checks and insufficient operating rates at small and medium mines. High-grade ore was in tight supply. Additionally, imports from Mongolia declined, spot cargo and enterprise inventories were low, and miners held prices firm with a strong sentiment. Demand-side performance diverged: the refrigerant industry entered the off-season, with hydrofluoric acid plants making just-in-time and contract purchases amid losses; demand from lithium battery electrolytes and electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid remained stable, supporting high-grade fluorite. In the short term, the tight supply situation is unlikely to ease, and import increases will be limited, so fluorite prices are likely to remain generally stable with a slight rise.

June 26, 2026 – The chromium market continued to decline this week, with the ample supply pattern unchanged and demand remaining weak.

This week, ferrous metals fell continuously. During the week, there were many disturbances from unverified market rumors, but overall macro sentiment was weak, and expectations of rate hikes outside China continued to weigh on commodity sentiment. Earlier, rumors of a strike at BHP caused a slight rebound in iron ore; in the latter half of the week, Tangshan issued a notice on the "Tangshan Industrial Source Emission Reduction Plan for H2 2026," and combined with post-holiday inventory accumulation of the five major steel products, market sentiment was weak, and ferrous metals fell again. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics for end-users became more evident, market demand continued to weaken. While spot prices remained relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and positions in both futures and spot markets were unwound. Transactions were concluded at prices below market levels, further dragging down market prices......