[8.19 Morning Meeting Minutes] The National Bureau of Statistics: In July, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% YoY in real terms; sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities turned flat MoM after a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways in the morning session, ending at 128,410 yuan/mt, up 0.19%. Driven by factors including the mild cooling of the US July PPI and further easing of interest rate hike expectations, nonferrous metals broadly rose, and nickel prices rebounded from last week's lows. While Indonesia’s nickel ore RKAB quota is expected to be loose, sulfur prices remain elevated above $1,000/mt, providing ongoing cost support. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

SMM August 17: Battery metals demand faces a more gradual growth path as automakers and suppliers signal that hybrids and range extenders will retain a significant role well beyond earlier full-BEV transition timelines, carrying direct implications for the pace at which spodumene concentrate must convert into lithium carbonate (LC) and lithium hydroxide (LH) downstream. Industry executives argue that decarbonization progress should be measured by total emissions reduction rather than BEV penetration alone, with one powertrain executive projecting that half of passenger vehicles could still carry some form of combustion or hybrid system by 2040. For the lithium supply chain, pack size is the key variable rather than unit count. Hybrids and range extenders still require lithium-ion battery packs, but at a fraction of the capacity used in full BEVs, meaning each hybrid sold absorbs meaningfully less LC or LH per vehicle than a comparable BEV. Lithium remains structurally supported across almost every electrification pathway, unlike nickel, cobalt, and manganese, which carry closer ties to high-nickel chemistries used in longer-range BEVs. A longer hybrid phase would slow the rate at which large-format BEV packs absorb lithium units, easing the pace at which LC/LH conversion capacity needs to be brought online even as upstream spodumene mining and beneficiation projects continue ramping toward planned output targets. The demand path carries logistics implications as well. A more gradual absorption curve for battery-grade lithium salts gives converters and refiners processing spodumene feedstock from Africa, Australia, and South America greater runway to bring hydroxide and carbonate capacity online without facing the acute bottleneck pressure a steep BEV-only ramp would create, allowing producers and converters to better sequence CIF delivery schedules against a less compressed conversion timeline. Policy remains a swing factor: the EU's current framework targets a 100% cut in new car and van tailpipe emissions from 2035, effectively phasing out combustion sales absent new exemptions, though suppliers are pushing for a more technology-neutral approach that credits hybrids and range extenders. Greater EU flexibility would further extend the timeline over which spodumene supply needs to convert into battery-grade LC/LH. SMM View: A longer mixed-powertrain era points to a more forgiving supply-demand balance across the spodumene-to-lithium-salt chain in the near term, giving upstream concentrate producers and downstream LC/LH converters additional room to align capacity growth with actual offtake absorption rather than racing an aggressive BEV-only demand curve. This may moderate the urgency behind some conversion capacity expansions currently underway across major producing and processing regions, while the structural case for spodumene supply growth remains intact given lithium's exposure across virtually every electrification pathway.

[8.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] The overall increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) in July remained mild, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures, and expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike in September cooled further. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged sharply in early trading, closing the morning session at 127,300 yuan/mt, down 1.12%. The Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) recommended keeping the 2026 nickel ore RKAB at 270 million wmt and additionally setting a 30 million wmt strategic buffer, bringing the potential total quota to 300 million wmt. With expectations for looser RKAB quotas, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and the trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

According to SMM research, the domestic lithium battery recycling market exhibited clear diverging trends in July 2026. During the month, recycled lithium carbonate output declined by 2% month-over-month. Recycled nickel sulfate and cobalt sulfate continued their year-long downtrend, with the weak performance persisting in July and no price recovery in sight.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of August 10–14, 2026. Chinese stainless steel futures fell for a fourth straight week, settling at RMB 14,245/mt (about $2,114/mt) on August 14.

July Price Review Source: SMM In July 2026, China’s non-oriented electrical steel market trended weaker, with prices across all grades starting to drift lower. Downstream home appliance and general motor industries entered the traditional off-season, and end manufacturers mostly adopted hand-to-mouth purchasing with limited willingness for bulk stockbuilding. Meanwhile, steel mills maintained relatively ample supply, leading to looser supply-demand balance and mounting inventory pressure on traders. Pervasive market caution widened spot negotiation ranges. July marked the start of the current downward price cycle, shifting market sentiment from earlier firm high levels to a weakening trajectory. Fundamental Analysis Source: SMM Supply Side Compared with July, the production scheduling mix of domestic non-oriented electrical steel will continue to optimize in August. The share of medium & low grades will edge down from 68% to 66%, high grades will stay flat at 19%, and new-energy dedicated grades will rise from 13% to 15%. Steel mills keep reallocating production capacity toward materials for new-energy motors while proactively cutting output of conventional medium & low grades. Nevertheless, despite lower scheduled output proportion for medium & low grades, overall spot supply in the market remains relatively sufficient. Traditional home appliance and general motor sectors are stuck in demand off-season with no improvement in end-users’ hand-to-mouth buying. Competitive pressure persists for mainstream medium & low grade products such as B50A800, lacking solid price support. The market will continue the weak trend seen since July. Source: Publicly Available Data Demand Side Home appliance output showed divergent performance in June. Air conditioner production fell year-on-year, while washing machine, refrigerator and TV output posted no notable growth. The traditional home appliance sector entered a phase of subdued demand. As the major downstream consumer of medium & low grade non-oriented electrical steel, the home appliance sector released limited orders and provided feeble support for this product category. The automotive sector saw structural divergence: output of new-energy passenger and commercial vehicles stayed at high levels, continuously underpinning demand for high-grade and new-energy-specific non-oriented electrical steel. In contrast, production of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) passenger and commercial vehicles kept declining, dragging down motor procurement demand from traditional automakers. Overall demand presents a clear split: the new-energy vehicle segment lends support to high-grade electrical steel, whereas sluggish demand from home appliances and ICE vehicles fails to fuel consumption recovery of medium & low grade non-oriented electrical steel. No strong bullish catalysts emerge on the demand front. August Price Outlook Looking ahead to August 2026: On the supply side, planned output of China’s non-oriented electrical steel will keep declining, yet the scale of production cuts will narrow, concentrated mainly on medium & low grades. On one hand, prominent off-season effects persist amid stagnant downstream demand and prevailing hand-to-mouth purchasing, dampening steel mills’ production enthusiasm. On the other hand, leading producers including Baowu lifted August base prices by RMB 50/tonne, demonstrating obvious price-defending intentions. Even so, the market holds bearish expectations that prices face greater downside than upside. In addition, most manufacturers are already operating at a loss and forced to implement production cuts. On the demand side, the home appliance sector stays in a prolonged off-season with poor sentiment. Manufacturers have sharply reduced production schedules month-on-month. Weak domestic sales, phasing-out of state subsidies and consumption frontloading during the 618 shopping campaign weigh on the market, resulting in a marked sales drop. Manufacturers stated they will prioritize inventory destocking and further adjust production plans going forward. The automotive market enters its off-season with deteriorating business sentiment. After mid-year sales pushes, most automakers trimmed production schedules. At the retail end, high temperatures and frequent rainfall discourage consumer vehicle purchases. Automakers and dealers have rolled back partial sales incentives, while limited launches of new models contribute to a substantial month-on-month sales decline. On the cost side, hot rolled coil prices are projected to fluctuate weakly in August with limited upward momentum, and the monthly average price will continue to fall month-on-month. In summary, SMM forecasts that non-oriented electrical steel prices will fluctuate downward across August 2026, with certain room for price declines.

[Cochilco Again Lowers 2026 Chilean Copper Production Forecast; H2 Recovery Still Has Room to Materialize] Cochilco has recently lowered its 2026 Chilean copper production forecast to 5.27 million mt, down 2.6% YoY, mainly due to lower grades at large mines, maintenance, slower project ramp-ups and operational constraints in H1. Over the same period, China imported 4.2808 million mt of copper concentrates from Chile, down 7.9% YoY, with Chile’s share of China’s copper concentrate imports falling to 29.3%; the contribution of Chilean supply to the Chinese market weakened temporarily. However, most miners maintained their full-year production guidance, mainly banking on H2 recovery from the switch to higher-grade ore zones, the completion of maintenance, and project ramp-ups. Going forward, whether Chilean production rebounds on schedule will continue to affect the global copper concentrate supply-demand balance and the TC trend.

Entering Q3, the battery-grade nickel sulphate spot market appears to be "losing vitality," with reduced transaction frequency and relatively weak price trends. SMM believes this is primarily driven by a combination of three factors: weakening cost support, a gradually loosening supply-demand pattern, and a shift in market structure. This article will discuss these three factors in detail. I. Cost Side: Weakening Nickel Prices and Raw Materials Together In terms of nickel prices, August marks the period for the release of additional quotas in Indonesia, which has tempered market expectations of a significant shortage of Indonesian nickel ore. Coupled with the ongoing "shadow" of macroeconomic interest rate hikes, nickel prices have weakened. On the MHP payables front, following the concentrated arrival of sulphur in Indonesia, the supply of Indonesian intermediate products is expected to continue rising. According to SMM data, Indonesia's MHP supply-demand balance turned positive in July for the first time in a month. Meanwhile, downstream nickel and cobalt salt prices (especially cobalt salts) remain relatively weak, and downstream players are under pressure from losses, showing lower acceptance of high payables. Consequently, MHP payables remain under pressure overall. The market availability of high-grade nickel matte remains tight, and its payables are expected to hold steady. With both nickel prices and raw material payables declining, the spot production cost of nickel sulphate in August is expected to weaken overall from a spot cost perspective. II. Supply Side: High Raw Material Flexibility, Production Schedules Expected to Rise Since Q2, although MHP production schedules fell sharply at one point, nickel sulphate supply levels remained relatively stable, and no prolonged undersupply emerged. In Q3, as intermediate product production schedules gradually recover, this trend is expected to become more pronounced. According to SMM data, while battery-grade nickel sulphate production in July dipped 2% MoM due to production cuts or maintenance at some salt plants, August output is expected to rise over 8% MoM, returning supply to high levels. Total battery-grade nickel sulphate production from January to August 2026 grew 33% YoY. Behind this steady output lies strong supply flexibility in nickel salt raw materials. In addition to the adjustments using refined nickel raw materials and the substitution between high-grade nickel matte and MHP discussed in previous articles, recycled materials have also contributed a significant supply scale for nickel sulphate this year. On the one hand, after China opened up imports of lithium battery black mass last year, recycled raw materials have been able to be imported steadily, providing incremental raw material for recycled nickel sulphate. On the other hand, as the scale of ternary battery decommissioning gradually expands, and with some companies launching new recycling projects this year, the overall supply scale of black mass in the industry has risen. According to SMM data, the output from pulverising scrap ternary batteries in July doubled compared to the same period last year, providing significant flexibility for nickel sulphate supply. III. Demand Side: NMC Demand Supports Overall Consumption Volume but Fails to Directly Drive External Spot Purchases NMC demand exceeded expectations this year, serving as a key reason nickel sulphate maintained a relatively high premium. Consumption of nickel sulphate by downstream enterprises is expected to remain elevated in Q3. On one hand, with the September-October peak season for auto sales approaching, top-tier downstream players hold favorable demand expectations for mid-to-high nickel materials, driving higher production schedules at associated precursor plants. On the other hand, overseas high-nickel orders secured by leading firms have also stayed at high levels, supported by robust demand in Europe and other regions and by installation rush strategies triggered by adjustments to battery cell export tax rebate policies. According to SMM data, demand for battery-grade nickel sulphate in the new energy sector rose 1.55% MoM in July and is expected to grow a further 0.9% in August. However, the top-tier precursor enterprises with relatively strong orders are highly integrated, with several possessing refined nickel production capacity and ample flexibility to adjust in-house nickel sulphate output. As a result, the downstream demand increase provides limited direct stimulus to spot nickel sulphate procurement. According to SMM data, the combined production schedule of the five leading integrated and semi-integrated enterprises rose 11% MoM in August, and in-house output can meet over 80% of their raw material needs, meaning the incremental demand for externally purchased nickel sulphate was not significant. IV. Market Structure: Expanding Long-Term Contract Scale Squeezes Spot Order Space A notable structural shift in the Q3 nickel sulphate market is the expansion in the scale of long-term contracts. SMM estimates show that monthly spot orders for nickel sulphate stood at roughly 3,500-4,500 mt in metal content in 2025 and Q1 this year. Against the backdrop of rising NMC demand, this scale has shrunk to around 2,000 mt in metal content in Q3. At the start of the quarter, spot orders were expected to gradually retreat from monthly just-in-time procurement to a supplementary role for long-term contracts in corporate purchasing strategies, with additional purchases made only when clear downstream demand increments or raw material supply disruptions occur. This has suppressed market activity in August and early September. Moreover, with no significant decline in nickel sulphate supply, downstream acceptance of spot prices remains generally low. The expansion of long-term contracts stems from two factors. First, the high volatility in nickel prices and raw materials this year has intensified decision-making pressure on enterprises for spot orders, prompting a tendency to lock in demand through long-term contracts. Second, after persistent overcapacity, few new entrants have emerged, and industry supply chains have stabilized, with upstream and downstream enterprises gradually forming steady cooperative relationships. In the long term, the overall scale of long-term contracts is still expected to trend upward. V. Market Outlook As mentioned above, the supply and demand of nickel sulphate spot orders has shifted from relative tightness in Q2 to a slight surplus. From August to early September, prices are expected to be generally in the doldrums; after the downstream demand for the 'September-October peak season' becomes clear in September, the spot order market activity may recover to some extent, driving a rebound in nickel sulphate prices.

SMM August 12: A sudden supply-side disruption has significantly altered the short-term supply-demand balance in the alumina market outside China. On August 11, Hydro’s Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil was forced to activate emergency response measures due to a natural gas supply outage, cutting alumina production to 50% of capacity. The refinery has an existing capacity of 6.3 million mt/year, and after the 50% cut, the operating capacity fell to around 3.15 million mt/year, equivalent to a monthly production loss of approximately 250,000 mt—a non-negligible impact on the overall supply landscape outside China. Before this unexpected production cut, the alumina market outside China was in a slight surplus: in July, global alumina supply (excluding China) exceeded demand by about 486,000 mt, reflecting a loose supply-demand pattern. However, with Alunorte’s sharp output reduction, the August overseas surplus is expected to narrow quickly to around 177,000 mt. It is worth further noting that alumina prices outside China still lag behind domestic levels. This price spread means some alumina needs to be transshipped and repackaged in China before it can be exported, adding extra packaging and logistics costs. At the same time, China still maintains a net-import pattern for alumina, with monthly net imports averaging around 100,000 mt. Taken together, the actual surplus available for supply outside China will be further squeezed to merely about 70,000 mt. The supply-demand balance will abruptly shift from relatively loose to a tight balance, significantly elevating the risk of regional structural shortages, and alumina prices outside China are highly likely to find upward support in the short term. However, it must be objectively recognized that the price rally is not solely driven by Alunorte’s production cuts. Another structural support factor exists in overseas markets: due to strait passage issues, demand for bagged alumina in the Middle East is relatively urgent, while bulk alumina cannot effectively meet local supply because of transportation constraints. This situation has prompted some traders to first sell bulk alumina and then turn to purchase bagged alumina to fill the gap. Bagged alumina itself commands a notable premium—its FOB price is typically more than $20/mt higher than that of bulk alumina. This extra packaging and logistics cost has, to some extent, pushed up the overall price center in the regional market, serving as a secondary support for near-term alumina price strength outside China. Even if short-term sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals converge to drive prices higher, the upside room for alumina prices outside China may remain relatively limited. The core reason is that India still has plans to launch new capacity—a 1 million mt/year alumina project is expected to gradually advance its expansion in Q4 this year and Q1 next year, which will effectively supplement market supply at that time. Therefore, although supply was tight in Q3 due to production cuts at Alunorte, from a full-year perspective, the supply tightness in Q4 will ease noticeably, making it difficult to support a sustained sharp price increase. More attention should be paid to the uncertainty of disturbances on the time dimension. Currently, the duration of Alunorte’s natural gas supply issue remains unclear. If it is properly resolved in the short term, the impact of the production cuts will be relatively manageable; however, if the repair cycle is prolonged, the supply deficit outside China in Q3 will persist. Early signs of tight spot supply have already emerged in some regions. With the combination of fundamentals and sentiment, the likelihood of alumina prices outside China holding up well increases. Looking further ahead, new alumina capacity in Indonesia will be released gradually next year, and the global alumina supply landscape will evolve towards a looser balance, putting downward pressure on the long-term price center. In summary, the impact of this Alunorte production cut event on the alumina market outside China is mainly concentrated in Q3 this year. Short-term prices are expected to rise due to expectations of tightening supply-demand and regionally structural cost increases. However, constrained by the expectations of long-term growth from India’s new capacity about to be commissioned, as well as the continuous loosening pressure from capacity releases in Indonesia in Q4 this year and early next year, the current price rise reflects more of a periodic rebound rather than a trend reversal. It is expected that alumina prices outside China will consolidate on a strong note in Q3, and from Q4 to early next year, as new capacity comes online, the price center is likely to pull back gradually. (The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive assessment by SMM’s research team. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.) Data source: SMM

[SMM Tin Midday Review: As supply and demand remain sluggish, SHFE tin continues to consolidate, and spot market transactions recover slightly.]