[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply-Demand Pattern; Secondary Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Come Under Pressure and Pull Back in April

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

[SMM Chrome Weekly Review: Weak Demand Performance, Market Remained in the Doldrums] News on April 3, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore markets saw limited fluctuations...

SMM, April 3: At the start of this week, lead prices held steady at low levels, and the purchase price of waste e-bike batteries remained at 9,750 yuan/mt. After lead prices rose on Wednesday, smelter quotations showed a stable-to-firmer trend, with the final national average purchase price raised to 9,800 yuan/mt. Recyclers simultaneously raised their buying prices, and the mainstream recycling quotation range for EV batteries was 9,300-9,450 yuan/mt. This week, raw material inventory for secondary lead fell about 19% MoM. Coupled with an increase in enterprise production resumptions after the holiday, this was expected to support scrap battery prices. Domestic secondary crude lead operated at relatively low rates due to persistently high scrap battery costs and smelting losses, while supplier quotations remained firm; as of Friday this week, the mainstream ex-factory price excluding tax was around 15,450 yuan/mt. Imported secondary crude lead saw concentrated arrivals as the import window opened, resulting in ample supply. Domestic secondary crude lead production resumptions were expected to remain slow in April, while imported cargoes continued to flow in. Combined with the off-season for battery demand, prices were expected to move sideways within a range, with imported cargoes weighing on market prices. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

As production order fully resumed after the Chinese New Year, the sodium-ion battery industry chain saw a strong recovery in March. Production across the four major segments—cathode, anode, electrolyte, and battery cell—posted substantial growth both YoY and MoM, with industry prosperity rebounding markedly.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,286.5/mt and fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $12,212/mt. Copper prices then fluctuated upward, with the center moving up to $12,408/mt, before falling back again to finally close at $12,348.5/mt, down 0.99%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 295,000 lots, an increase of 3,702 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,660 yuan/mt and dipped to 95,300 yuan/mt in early trading. Copper prices then fluctuated upward, with the center moving up to a high of 96,680 yuan/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at 96,150 yuan/mt, down 0.08%. Trading volume reached 36,500 lots, and open interest stood at 181,000 lots, a decrease of 1,608 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bulls reducing positions.

This week, the overall second-life battery market for lithium battery Grade B products remained stable, while prices for warehouse A and Grade A products rose. On the cost side, lithium carbonate first increased and then declined, with evident fluctuations; nickel sulphate edged down slightly, while cobalt sulphate prices remained stable. On the supply side, battery cell capacity continued to be released, the EV sector carried out orderly stockpiling, demand in the ESS sector remained robust, and order shipments stayed at a high level. On the demand side, following the implementation of the new power battery regulations on April 1, the exclusive concept of second-life application was removed and uniformly brought under comprehensive utilization supervision, with strict control over the circulation of non-compliant products; the market showed structural divergence, with average demand from the EV sector, but strong demand for compliant orders in energy storage and outside China. In terms of product-grade price spreads: quotations for leading Grade A products with warranties approached those of new battery cells, while circulation of recycled materials and Grade B products remained weak and prices held flat, as they struggled to meet compliant procurement standards.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Tight Supply and Recovering Demand Drove Magnesium Prices Steadily Higher This Week, Breaking 17,500] This week, China's magnesium industry chain as a whole held up well. On the raw material side, the dolomite market remained stable. Part of the suspended output in core production areas was supplemented by supply from surrounding regions, while stable operating rates at downstream primary magnesium smelting plants supported demand and the supply-demand balance. Affected by rising crude oil prices, subsequent delivered prices may rise slightly. The magnesium ingot market stayed firm, and both production and sales in major producing areas were strong. Geopolitical disruptions pushed up energy expectations, prompting producers to hold back sales and tightening supply. Rigid downstream demand, export order lock-ins, and a boost from industry conferences jointly drove magnesium prices higher. Offshore quotations were adjusted in line with ex-factory prices, and although bidding-based shipment prices were low at the beginning of the week, they rebounded later, while new orders declined. Magnesium powder remained firm, supported by higher magnesium ingot prices, while increased operating rates at magnesium plants ensured supply and both domestic and overseas demand recovered. The magnesium alloy market also stayed strong, with stable operating rates at top-tier enterprises, new capacity coming on stream, and downstream end-use demand being released, supported by ample orders and a supply-demand balance.

SMM News, April 2: Data Brief: As of Thursday, April 2, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell 14.04% WoW from last Thursday. Total inventory increased 53,800 mt YoY from the same period last year, marking three consecutive weeks of destocking. By region, in Shanghai, copper cathode inventory continued to pull back, supported by downstream consumption, while smelters gradually entered the maintenance cycle and arrivals tightened, with warehouse withdrawals significantly exceeding inflows. In Jiangsu, downstream consumption steadily recovered, and inventory continued to decline in tandem. In Guangdong, consumption remained robust, and coupled with tight supply in some areas, inventory kept falling. Looking ahead, on the supply side, imported copper cargoes continued to arrive, while arrivals of domestically produced copper decreased somewhat due to smelter maintenance. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mostly purchased as needed based on their production pace. Judging from the overall supply-demand pattern, China’s copper cathode supply is expected to remain tight next week, while consumption is expected to stay broadly stable, and weekly inventory is expected to continue destocking.

Shanghai copper spot to remain weak tomorrow. On the supply side, the import window is open, raising expectations of further inflows. Some imported cargoes are circulating, keeping spot discounts under pressure. Meanwhile, some smelters are accelerating shipments to reduce inventories before the holiday, adding to supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream buyers remain cautious, mostly purchasing on rigid needs with limited appetite for higher prices. Some pre-holiday restocking ahead of the Qingming festival may offer modest support, but it is unlikely to reverse the overall weak supply-demand balance. In summary, spot quotes against the 2604 contract are expected to hold at current levels.