SMM, August 20: Data highlights: As of Thursday, August 20, SMM copper inventories in mainstream China regions increased by 17,700 mt WoW to 134,400 mt, and total inventories also rose by 2,700 mt compared to the same period last year's 131,700 mt. By region, arrivals in Shanghai grew, and the pullback in copper prices spurred modest demand recovery, but the overall trend remained an inventory buildup; in Jiangsu, higher arrivals led to a slight inventory accumulation; in Guangdong, post-contract rollover arrivals shrank while warehouse withdrawals rose, resulting in a pullback in inventories. Looking ahead, on the supply side, arrivals of domestic copper are set to increase in the short term, but import arrivals are pulling back, marginally easing China's supply pressure. On the demand side, copper prices continue to consolidate at highs, and downstream players mainly make just-in-time procurement. Spot copper availability is loosening, and market trading sentiment is relatively subdued. Based on supply-demand fundamentals, China's copper social inventory is expected to accumulate modestly next week.

According to SMM data, as of August 18, the average price of domestic polysilicon dense and recharge material stood at RMB 40.5/kg, representing a 26.96% increase from July 31. Some leading producers were quoting as high as RMB 43/kg to external buyers.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of August 10–14, 2026. Chinese stainless steel futures fell for a fourth straight week, settling at RMB 14,245/mt (about $2,114/mt) on August 14.

SMM, August 13: This week, trading sentiment among domestic aluminum fluoride enterprises was moderate, and aluminum fluoride prices remained stable. As of this report, SMM mainstream aluminum fluoride quotations stood at 11,200-11,800 yuan/mt; cryolite spot prices held steady, and SMM cryolite quotations were 7,500-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side: This week, aluminum fluoride raw material prices diverged. The upstream 97% fluorite wet powder market consolidated on a strong note, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,300-3,750 yuan/mt. Supply side, domestic mine safety supervision tightened, standardized mining management and control was implemented, and mine technological transformation and rectification cycles lengthened, constraining the release of effective industry capacity over the long term. Some mines in Inner Mongolia stopped production for rectification, most mines in the main producing areas of south China had not yet resumed production, spot cargo circulation in the market was tight, and although imported cargo from Mongolia could ease some supply pressure, the extent was limited. Demand side, downstream hydrogen fluoride enterprises maintained moderate rigid-demand restocking, but wait-and-see sentiment gradually emerged in the terminal fluorochemical market. Combined with steady consumption from the aluminum sector providing a floor, fluorite prices maintained a stable-to-rising pattern amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. Other raw materials, the domestic aluminum hydroxide market drifted lower, with a weighted average price of 1,660 yuan/mt, down 0.60% WoW; the sulphuric acid market loosened from high levels, with transaction centers shifting slightly lower. After the gains and losses among raw materials offset each other, overall aluminum fluoride production costs stayed high. Supply side: The industry remained caught in a negative loop of high costs, production losses, and low operating rates. Rising fluorite prices further intensified enterprises' losses. Although product negotiation prices picked up somewhat in August, industry profitability was not meaningfully repaired. Most enterprises stepped up equipment maintenance and flexible production cuts, and overall operating rates continued to decline. At this stage, most enterprises in the market were adopting a contractionary operating strategy, prioritizing delivery of long-term contract orders. Incremental effective supply in the market was limited, and spot cargoes were tight overall. Demand side: Downstream aluminum industry operating capacity remained high, providing rigid demand support for aluminum fluoride and underpinning the market bottom. However, aluminum smelters were cautious and conservative in overall purchasing sentiment, mostly making sporadic restocking purchases for rigid demand. Sentiment for pushing for lower prices and waiting on the sidelines was strong, and there were no concentrated restocking or incremental procurement activities, making it difficult to drive market prices upward. Comment: This week, aluminum fluoride raw material trends continued to diverge. Fluorite prices rose sharply, raising the cost floor, while aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid prices pulled back slightly, partly offsetting cost pressure. The industry's overall production costs remained high, profit margins were difficult to repair, and production enthusiasm stayed weak. In August, the aluminum fluoride tender price of the benchmark aluminum enterprise was raised by 250 yuan/mt MoM. Upstream and downstream enterprises followed suit with price increases. Market prices stabilized for now, lacking one-sided trend drivers. Transactions were mostly small rigid-demand restocking orders. Aluminum fluoride prices are expected to remain in a stable stalemate pattern in the short term, with limited price movement. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material cost-side dynamics and marginal adjustments in downstream aluminum enterprises' procurement pace.

Precious metals fluctuated at highs overall this week, with spot gold rallying from $4,240 to above $4,440 and hitting a two-month high. The core drivers were a sharp downside surprise in July nonfarm payrolls and a mild pullback in CPI; expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike in September cooled significantly, the US dollar and US Treasury yields both pulled back, and central bank gold purchases accelerated. Watch for a rebound in oil prices, supply pressure in US Treasuries, and a short-term technical pullback.

SMM, August 13: Data summary: As of Thursday, August 13, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell by 2,500 mt WoW to 116,700 mt, with total inventory 8,900 mt lower than the 125,600 mt in the same period last year. By region, the Shanghai region was disrupted by typhoons earlier, slowing the pace of warehouse withdrawals and causing inventory buildup; in the Jiangsu region, warehouse inflows and withdrawals were broadly balanced, with limited inventory changes; in the Guangdong region, arrivals declined and warehouse withdrawals increased as a major downstream producer resumed production, driving sustained declines in Guangdong inventory. Looking ahead, supply side, near-term domestic copper arrivals have tightened somewhat due to export diversions, while imported cargoes continue to arrive at ports, marginally easing domestic supply pressure. Demand side, high copper prices combined with the traditional consumption off-season keep end-use demand weak. Currently, spot copper supply is becoming more ample, and market trading sentiment is subdued. Based on supply-demand fundamentals, nationwide copper social inventory is expected to accumulate modestly next week.

[SMM Copper Social Inventory Flash] As of August 13, SMM copper cathode social inventory across mainstream regions in China fell by 2,500 mt from last Thursday to 116,700 mt, down 8,900 mt YoY, with regional performance diverging. In Shanghai, typhoon-related disruptions hindered warehouse withdrawals and led to inventory buildup. Jiangsu inventories remained broadly stable. In Guangdong, reduced arrivals combined with stronger downstream warehouse withdrawals pushed inventories lower. In the near term, imported copper cathode continues to arrive at ports, marginally easing domestic supply pressure. However, the off-season and elevated copper prices are weighing on end-user procurement, leaving market trading sluggish. National copper cathode social inventory is expected to edge up slightly next week.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,122.5/mt, drifted lower in early trading to touch a low of $14,069/mt, then the price center gradually moved up to test $14,177/mt, and subsequently drifted lower again to close at $14,120/mt, up 0.7%, with trading volume of 15,000 lots and open interest of 259,000 lots, an increase of 1,164 lots from the previous session, represented by bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,850 yuan/mt, drifted lower in early trading to test 107,450 yuan/mt, then the price center moved up sharply to touch 108,060 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 107,790 yuan/mt, up 0.16%, with trading volume of 27,400 lots and open interest of 212,000 lots, a decrease of 2,287 lots from the previous session, represented by bears reducing positions.

[July 2026 Hydrometallurgical Black Mass Procurement Volume Down 6% MoM, Sluggish Transactions and Destocking Dominated] According to SMM's latest survey data, in July 2026, the scrap procurement volume (in black mass equivalent terms) of China's mainstream hydrometallurgical plants fell approximately 6% MoM from the June high. However, as market conditions stabilize and demand expectations improve, August procurement volume is expected to rebound 10%. Looking back at the July market, both supply and demand sides and price gaming showed notable structural divergence. The expectation misalignment between grinding enterprises and hydrometallurgical plants was the core factor leading to sluggish market transactions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, due to the impact of typhoon weather, cargo pick-up and transportation at some warehouses in east China will be restricted, and short-term cargo circulation efficiency will decline, providing some support to the spot market. However, trading was sluggish during the day. Affected by weather factors and high copper prices, downstream purchase willingness declined significantly, and purchases were mostly based on rigid demand. Some processing enterprises in Zhejiang reduced their cargo pick-up arrangements to Shanghai due to traffic restrictions, providing limited support from the demand side. On the inventory front, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 78,300 mt, up 2,200 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu social inventory at 18,100 mt, down 2,400 mt WoW from last Thursday. Overall inventory changes in east China were limited, without reflecting significant supply pressure. Meanwhile, the backwardation spread between contracts widened to 240-310 yuan/mt. The spread between spot and futures widened, and some suppliers' need to roll positions and convert to cash increased, which may exert some pressure on spot premiums. Overall, with the combined effects of typhoon weather disrupting cargo circulation, the widening backwardation structure, and sluggish trading, it is expected that Shanghai spot copper against the 2608 contract will still maintain premiums tomorrow, but the overall center may fluctuate slightly. Attention should be paid to cargo pick-up and supply circulation at warehouses after the weather improves.