Recently, China's EMM market displayed a distinct dual pattern of "strong cost support with loosening at highs," with intensifying industry supply-demand and cost dynamics.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Geopolitical Risks Eased, SS Futures Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Stainless Steel Spot Transactions Recovered SMM April 22 reported that SS futures showed a trend of stopping falling and rebounding. The US-Iran conflict cooled down, with the US announcing an indefinite ceasefire and Iran suspending military operations. Influenced by this, non-ferrous futures strengthened, and SS futures rose in tandem. As of the morning session close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,920 yuan/mt. Spot market side, although SS futures stopped falling today, futures prices had already pulled back from earlier levels. In addition, after stainless steel spot prices surged significantly, downstream acceptance was low and transactions were weak. However, traders held low-priced cargoes from earlier periods and had room to offer concessions, so spot quotes pulled back accordingly, with inquiries and transactions recovering somewhat. The most-traded SS contract stopped falling and strengthened. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,885 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 35-235 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan by 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted stable in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The current stainless steel market is in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April." Driven by futures, spot quotes strengthened somewhat, but cautious wait-and-see sentiment among downstream end-users persisted, with concerns over short-term price fluctuations and purchases yet to materialize...

According to recent SMM on-site surveys, sulphur and sulphuric acid supply in Zambia and the DRC has not experienced significant shortages, and has not yet had a substantive impact on copper and cobalt smelting production in the two regions. Zambia's domestic sulphuric acid supply is self-sufficient, with supply pressure concentrated in the DRC. Currently, raw materials in the DRC can be procured normally, but prices fluctuate at high levels, with the delivery-to-factory price of sulphuric acid ranging from $1,000 to $1,400/mt, reaching a peak of $1,400/mt. Sulphur DAP quotes range from $1,500 to $1,800/mt, and DDP quotes range from $2,300 to $2,500/mt. Dar es Salaam port holds sulphur inventory, mostly held by traders holding back from selling while waiting for higher prices.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Polysilicon Order Signing Increased Significantly, Module Prices Rose Slightly] Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34-36 yuan/kg. Weekend market prices remained temporarily stable. Currently, the market is approaching lows, and frequent meetings are being held, providing some support for prices. However, downstream players are resistant to high-priced resources, and wait-and-see sentiment has re-emerged in the market.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Indonesia nickel ore news continues to boost stainless steel futures, which hold up well On April 16, SMM reported that SS futures continued to hold up well. News related to Indonesian nickel ore continued to boost market sentiment, driving SS futures to maintain a fluctuating trend on the strong side. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,810 yuan/mt. On the spot market front, SS futures largely held firm at elevated levels. Although actual order transactions from downstream end-user clients remained lackluster, with a cautious stance still prevailing toward purchasing high-priced cargoes, some futures-spot arbitrage orders traded actively. Combined with some traders offering discounts on select specifications to facilitate shipments, the market was broadly confident and bullish on the outlook, and stainless steel prices are expected to remain firm in the near term. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and moved higher. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,798 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area ranged from 30-230 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi held steady and the average price in Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in the Wuxi area held steady; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotes rose by 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April." In the short term, macro tailwinds have helped restore confidence, and spot inquiry activity has picked up. However, cautious sentiment among downstream end-users has not dissipated, with purchasing still driven mainly by rigid demand and acceptance of high-priced cargoes remaining...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Indonesia Nickel Ore HMP Price Adjustment Drives Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices Higher On April 15, SMM reported that SS futures continued their strong upward trend. The market was further influenced by the adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP benchmark price, with SHFE nickel and stainless steel futures strengthening further. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,850 yuan/mt. Spot market side, driven by the dual factors of SS futures successively breaking through yearly highs and rising NPI costs following the adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP benchmark price, cost support for stainless steel strengthened significantly. Market sentiment returned to an actively bullish stance, and intraday quotes were raised. However, against the backdrop of rapidly rising prices, downstream end-users remained cautious. Although inquiries were active intraday and cargo pick-up for earlier orders was solid, actual transactions remained cautious. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,810 yuan/mt, up 220 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 10-210 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 200 yuan/mt and in Foshan by 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 200 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi rose by 150 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The current stainless steel market is in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April." In the short term, macro...

Three weeks ago until now, the shortage of remelted lead in domestic SEA countries has become significantly more severe. According to SMM’s internal survey, smelters in Malaysia, Vietnam, and India are unable to secure remelted lead to produce refined lead of 99.99% and 99.97%. This tight supply of remelted lead is pushing both domestic and international trading prices of refined lead higher across the mentioned-above regions.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Positive Nickel Ore Policy Boosts Stainless Steel Futures Prices, but Cautious Downstream Keeps Transactions Weak with Stable Spot Prices SMM, April 14 — SS futures continued their strong upward trend. Influenced by yesterday's news of Indonesia's nickel ore HPM formula adjustment, both SHFE nickel and SS futures rose. As of the morning session close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,600 yuan/mt. Spot market side, driven by the consecutive rise in SS futures and the adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore HPM formula, market expectations were that nickel pig iron smelting costs would increase, strengthening confidence in cost support for stainless steel. However, downstream acceptance of high prices remained limited, and spot quotes had not yet followed the upward move, with overall transactions remaining stable. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,590 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area ranged from 30-230 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi held steady, and the average price in Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area held...

According to an SMM survey, steel semi-finished product export orders have recently surged, with slab export orders seeing particularly significant growth. SMM believes two major factors contributed to this round of growth: "Demand" Provides the Necessary Condition for the Surge in Semi-Finished Product Export Orders On one hand, benefiting from the spillover effect of export demand caused by the US-Iran conflict, infrastructure and manufacturing in Southeast Asia have grown rapidly. However, the region only has rolling capacity and lacks steelmaking capacity, necessitating large imports of steel billet. According to data compiled by SMM, Southeast Asia imported approximately 2.31 million mt of steel from the Middle East in 2025, of which a staggering 97% was semi-finished steel billet. Therefore, when passage through the Strait of Hormuz was restricted, the Southeast Asian market was instantly exposed to a rigid shortfall of over 2 million mt. For detailed analysis, please refer to the article "Sudden Shift in Middle East Situation Triggers 'Mismatch,' China Accelerates to Fill Approximately 2.3 Million mt Supply Vacuum in Southeast Asia." The existence of this gap provides an excellent window for China's semi-finished product exports. "Price Advantage" Provides the Sufficient Condition for the Surge in Semi-Finished Product Export Orders On the other hand, price increases outside China far exceeded those in China. During this period, the FOB price of Dexin slabs in Indonesia rose from $470/mt to $540/mt, an increase of 14.89%, while the FOB price of slabs in China rose from $455/mt to $480/mt, an increase of only 5.49%. The huge price difference made buyers outside China particularly favour semi-finished products from China. SMM surveyed some recent slab transaction details from domestic sellers, as shown in the table below. Survey Records: Enterprise A: At the current price, they are willing to take slab orders, but orders have already been booked through August, with an estimated volume of 80,000 mt per month. Enterprise B: They started taking slab orders from April. They take orders when the price is right. The current price is only 20-30 yuan/mt lower than HRC. Enterprise C: They can only accept exporting slabs at HRC prices now. If overseas buyers don't want them, then forget it. Enterprise D: They haven't been in contact with new slab orders recently. Their last order was in March. However, if there is subsequent demand, they may have new resources available for export by June. Enterprise E: Their orders were all taken earlier. Previously, they were selling at over 100 yuan below HRC, but now the quoted price is only a few dozen yuan below HRC. However, transactions have clearly slowed down. The current ex-factory price is approximately 3,120. The surge in demand has driven prices higher. As shown in the chart below, normally the price spread between slabs and HRC stays around $20-30, which aligns with normal rolling costs. However, since April, this spread has narrowed to around $10, and has recently further narrowed to single digits. This is mainly because as steel mills' shipping schedules have gradually been pushed back, their willingness to hold prices firm has also strengthened. Some steel mills are even exporting slabs at prices equivalent to domestic HRC trade prices, which provides them with significant export motivation. Chart 1 - SMM China HRC & Slab Export FOB Price Trend SMM Expects Slab Exports to Rise Significantly, April-August In January-February this year, total steel billet exports were 1.7746 million mt, of which slabs accounted for 232,600 mt, square billets for 1.5196 million mt, and slabs made up 13.11%. Chart 2 - China Steel Billet Exports by Product, January-February 2026 Based on the survey, the increase in slab export orders was more of a March-April phenomenon. Considering the time interval from order placement to shipping schedule, SMM expects slab exports to show a relatively significant upward trend from April to August. Surge in Slab Orders May Improve HRC Fundamentals In April, the daily average production schedule for commercial HR products at 39 mills was 448,300 mt, up 8.5% MoM from actual daily average production. The daily average production schedule for commercial HR products at 54 steel mills was 581,100 mt, up 9.2% MoM from actual daily average production. HR supply pressure increased MoM, but the peak season performance of China's manufacturing sector during the "Golden March, Silver April" period was overall satisfactory. According to SMM data, as of April 9, total HRC inventory was 6.6556 million mt, down 111,100 mt WoW. Destocking is expected to maintain a healthy pace going forward. However, when the spot-futures price spread was at suitable levels before the Chinese New Year, traders engaged in futures-spot arbitrage were particularly active in North China and other regions, accelerating social inventory accumulation. Current social inventory is up 34.93% YoY. If steel mills' semi-finished product export orders perform well, this could create opportunities for subsequent reductions in commercial product supply, while also providing support for current prices.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Strengthened, Stainless Steel Spot Market Ran Steadily SMM, April 10: SS futures strengthened and rose. SS futures extended the mid-week rally and further explored upward. As of the morning close, the most-traded contract was reported at 14,495 yuan/mt. Spot market side, despite SS futures exploring higher, the spot market remained stable. In addition, a major stainless steel producer released its guidance price today, which held steady MoM. Although intraday inquiry activity picked up somewhat and some low-priced resources decreased, actual transactions remained limited, and upward momentum for prices was insufficient. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and rose. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was reported at 14,470 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area ranged from 50-250 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the Wuxi average price rose by 50 yuan/mt while the Foshan average price held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area held steady; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes remained flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The stainless steel market was currently in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April." In the short term, macro tailwinds helped restore confidence, and spot inquiry activity picked up. However, cautious sentiment among downstream end-users persisted, with procurement still driven by rigid demand. Acceptance of high-priced resources remained poor, and transactions relied on low-priced resources, with no significant volume increase overall. Futures side, the US-Iran conflict de-escalated this week, with both sides reaching a two-week ceasefire agreement and initiating negotiations. Macro...