Next week, the main macroeconomic data to be released include China's June CPI annual rate and the US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI. This week, US non-farm payrolls data came in far below the previous value and expectations, cooling market expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike. The US dollar index may return to a weak range of fluctuation. Although the prospects for US-Iran peace talks remain unclear, the gradual recovery of shipping and maritime transport and the decline in crude oil prices indicate that supply chain markets are recovering. In addition, it should be noted that the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting next week. For LME lead, high lead ingot inventory outside China is the biggest bearish factor in current market trading, especially as LME lead prices fell, the LME lead Cash-3M contango did not narrow but widened, with the latest quote at -$37.79/mt. Fundamental news was mediocre, providing limited support for prices. In the near term, we need to pay more attention to the US dollar index trend and the new developments from next week’s US Fed meeting, and their impact on the metals market. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,865-1,915/mt next week. For SHFE lead, this week, amid a carnival for bears, SHFE lead fell to a more than two-year low, causing lead smelters’ losses to widen and forcing secondary lead enterprises to cut or suspend production again. Bears then began to exit, and lead prices stopped falling and rebounded. Going forward, we need to monitor downstream enterprises’ purchasing trends. If lead ingot destocking materializes, lead prices may continue to rebound; otherwise, we should remain vigilant about bearish funds that have not exited. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 15,800-16,100 yuan/mt. Spot Price Forecast: 15,750-16,000 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the off-season trend in July remains unchanged. However, after large enterprises complete their semi-annual inventory checks and account closing, they will resume regular purchasing, which may bring some purchasing expectations. Supply side, primary lead enterprises are about to resume production after maintenance, turning supply expectations upward. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are in a state of production cuts, leading to regional supply constraints. If lead prices continue to rebound next week, we need to watch for the possibility of secondary lead production resuming as losses are repaired. Spot lead is expected to remain in contango trading.

SMM July 1 news: Overnight, the LME 3-month lead contract opened at $1,890.5/mt. Early in the session, prices consolidated repeatedly, rising intraday to $1,898/mt. Subsequently, upward momentum from bulls faded, and prices drifted lower. The decline accelerated during the European session, with prices dropping to $1,871/mt. Towards the close, they stabilized and rebounded slightly, finally closing at $1,872/mt, recording a bearish candlestick. The contract fell $20.5/mt, a decrease of 1.08%. Overnight, SHFE lead contract 2608 opened slightly lower at 16,040 yuan/mt. After briefly rising to 16,065 yuan/mt at the open, bulls lost steam, bears stepped in, and prices continued to pull back, dropping to an intraday low of 15,950 yuan/mt. At the low, slight buying support prompted a minor rebound, and the contract finally closed at 15,975 yuan/mt, falling 75 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.47%. Trading volume expanded, and open interest increased slightly by 238 lots. The trend retreated after a rapid rise, remaining generally weak. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes continue to suppress lead prices from a macro perspective. Although LME inventory pulled back slightly, the ex-China Q2 consumption off-season brings bearish demand factors. In China, primary smelters implemented minor production cuts due to ore supply constraints, while secondary smelters, hampered by losses and scrap battery raw material shortages, operated at lower rates, resulting in weak supply and demand in the market. Downstream users maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, only engaging in dip-buying on an as-needed basis. Short-term lead prices are likely to stay in the doldrums.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,890.5/mt. In initial trading, prices consolidated repeatedly, hitting an intraday high of $1,898/mt. Subsequently, the bulls’ upward momentum faded, and prices drifted lower. During the European session, the decline accelerated, with prices touching a low of $1,871/mt. Towards the end of the session, prices stabilized slightly and rebounded, eventually settling at $1,872/mt, forming a bearish candlestick, down $20.5/mt, a decline of 1.08%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2608 contract opened slightly lower at 16,040 yuan/mt. After briefly rising to 16,065 yuan/mt in early trading, the bulls lacked momentum, and bears entered to push prices lower. The price continued to pull back, hitting a low of 15,950 yuan/mt. At the low, some buying support led to a minor rebound, and it eventually settled at 15,975 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.47%. Trading volume expanded, and open interest saw a slight increase of 238 lots. The trend was a retreat after a rapid rise, showing overall weakness. On the macro front: Trump disclosed a 927-page fundraising financial report exceeding $1 billion. The US Fed’s Hammack: Inflation is still too high and may require considering interest rate hikes. Japan stated that no intervention was made in the foreign exchange market from April 28 to May 27. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: I would not be surprised if the June employment data is very strong. An MIIT official: Step up efforts in tackling key materials such as lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes, silicon-based anodes, and solid-state electrolytes. The National Bureau of Statistics: In June, the manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory. Spot fundamentals: The SHFE lead center shifted further downward, and in early trading it once briefly broke below the 16,000 yuan/mt level. Suppliers showed widening divergence in selling, with some raising their offer premiums, while others kept selling at parity. Meanwhile, EXW cargo quotations from primary lead smelters also diverged, with regional price spreads narrowing. Mainstream production area quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt. In the secondary lead sector, smelters showed strong reluctance to sell at low prices, and quotations were scarce. Some secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works, with a few at premiums of 100 yuan/mt, but there were also some discounted cargoes. Today was the last trading day of end-June, and downstream enterprises showed pronounced risk-averse wait-and-see sentiment. Some were looking to buy at lower prices on demand, and trading activity in the spot order market improved slightly. Inventory: As of June 30, LME lead inventory increased by 375 mt to 297,375 mt. As of June 29, SMM statistics showed that total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China climbed to 71,200 mt, hitting a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure continuing to manifest. As of June 29, SMM statistics showed that total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China climbed to 71,200 mt, hitting a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure continuing to manifest. Lead Price Forecast Today: Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes continued to weigh on lead prices from a macro perspective; although LME inventory pulled back slightly, the Q2 consumption off-season outside China brought demand-side bearishness. China's primary smelters cut production slightly due to ore supply constraints, while secondary smelters' operating rates declined, dragged by losses and scrap battery raw material shortages, resulting in a market with weak supply and demand. Downstream maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, only making on-demand purchases and buying the dip. In the short term, lead prices are expected to consolidate largely in the doldrums.

SMM, June 30: Although market procurement demand remained mediocre, spot prices for Pr-Nd oxide recorded a second consecutive increase, supported by fluctuations in futures, difficulty in finding low-priced cargo in the market, some large manufacturers entering procurement, and a MoM decline of about 6% in Pr-Nd oxide production in June. On the demand side, long-term demand expansion expectations in the new energy industry chain such as robotics, along with the upcoming Q3 downstream concentrated procurement season in China and rising market expectations for subsequent demand recovery, bolstered the rare earth permanent magnet concept to strengthen on June 30, with the concept rising 2.79% by the close on June 30. In terms of individual stocks: Dongfang Zirconium Industry, Sinomine Resource Group, and Zhong Ke San Huan hit the daily limit up, while Hanghua Co., Ltd., Longhua Co., Ltd., Zhongxi Nonferrous, Sinosteel NMC, and Ningbo Yunsheng led the gains. Pr-Nd Oxide Spot Prices See Second Consecutive Increase; June Production Declines MoM In the spot market, on June 30, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide extended its upward trend from the previous trading day, rising another 0.68%. Currently, overall prices in the rare earth market remain stable. The increase in Pr-Nd oxide futures prices drove a simultaneous rise in supplier spot offers, making low-priced oxides hard to find in the market. However, metal enterprises were cautious in procurement due to unsatisfactory inquiries for metals, leading to generally moderate market trading activity. In the metal market, inquiry activity picked up slightly on the afternoon of the 30th, mainly driven by tender procurement from major magnetic material manufacturers, but most magnetic material enterprises remained on the sidelines, resulting in overall poor transactions. In the short term, Pr-Nd product prices may move sideways without significant improvement in downstream demand. On the supply side, further providing price support logic: in terms of production, according to SMM's latest survey, overall rare earth oxide production declined MoM in June, with Pr-Nd oxide seeing the most prominent decrease, shrinking approximately 6% MoM. Institutional Views SDIC Securities emphasized that heavy rare earths are accelerating inventory depletion due to a cliff-like decline in imports from Japan, opening a window for domestic substitution, with prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide rebounding strongly. Materials such as AI high-capacity MLCCs, high-end ceramic substrates, and dental zirconia all require the addition of heavy rare earths. Growing demand combined with hard supply constraints is driving the price centers of both light and heavy rare earths upward together. Meanwhile, inflation trends in AI upstream materials such as MLCC dielectric powder, Low CTE electronic fabrics, M9 copper foil, and tantalum metals are clear, and the medium and long-term outlook is positive for the allocation value of strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, copper, tin, molybdenum, antimony, germanium, gallium, tantalum, niobium, uranium, rhenium, and lithium. A research report from China Securities stated that domestic dental zirconia enterprises have confirmed "receipt of a notice from Japan's Tosoh Corporation regarding the suspension of zirconia powder supply," marking a shift in raw material shortages from expectations to reality following overseas rare earth supply restrictions. Yttria-stabilized nano zirconia (YSZ) is a high-performance ceramic material with yttrium oxide added as an additive. Due to restricted rare earth supply outside China, the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets has reached hundreds of times at its peak. The domestic price spread for yttrium oxide between Chinese and overseas markets is huge. Rare earths are indispensable additives for high-end materials and high-end manufacturing. As overseas rare earth supply tightens and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets widens, domestic high-end materials containing rare earths are expected to gain a larger share of the global market, benefiting the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments of the rare earth industry chain. Recommended reading:

News Release, June 30, 2026: According to SMM statistics, China's high-carbon ferrochrome output in June 2026 rose 4.06% month-on-month and 29.96% year-on-year . Domestic ferrochrome output stayed elevated throughout the month, with production growth recorded in both northern and southern regions. In Inner Mongolia in the north, power supply constraints exerted limited impact. The June tender price for ferrochrome from steel mills stood at RMB 8,495 per 50-base-tonne. Meanwhile, chrome ore prices trended down moderately, lowering production costs for ferrochrome producers who maintained decent margins and mostly operated at normal run rates. In addition, newly launched capacity at several smelters further lifted regional output. Statistics show Inner Mongolia’s high-carbon ferrochrome output climbed 3.83% month-on-month in June, accounting for 77.82% of the national total. The southern regions officially entered the wet season, with power tariffs falling notably in Sichuan, Yunnan and other provinces, prompting successive restarts and production resumptions. Combined high-carbon ferrochrome output across southern provinces including Sichuan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Hunan rose 10% month-on-month in June, representing 11.59% of national volume. Ferrochrome output is expected to stay at high levels with little room for sharp further gains. For one thing, major stainless steel mills including Tsingshan and TIS cut their July high-carbon ferrochrome tender prices by RMB 200 per 50-base-tonne month-on-month, matching the market’s earlier bearish sentiment. The sector is in the traditional off-season for consumption, with news of production cuts emerging among downstream stainless steel manufacturers. Market participants hold subdued confidence over the outlook, keeping ferrochrome prices under persistent downward pressure. Meanwhile, the decline in chrome ore prices has slowed, leaving limited room for further cost reductions and squeezing profit margins of ferrochrome producers, which dampens production willingness. For another, southern smelters have mostly ramped up output to full capacity amid the wet season, leaving little upside for additional production growth. Besides, nearly all newly added domestic capacity has been commissioned. Therefore, ferrochrome output is projected to remain steady at current high levels in the near term.

[SMM Aluminum Brief] This week, China’s 97% fluorite wet powder market was stable, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt and price differences across regions. The supply side was constrained by safety and environmental protection checks and insufficient operating rates at small and medium mines. High-grade ore was in tight supply. Additionally, imports from Mongolia declined, spot cargo and enterprise inventories were low, and miners held prices firm with a strong sentiment. Demand-side performance diverged: the refrigerant industry entered the off-season, with hydrofluoric acid plants making just-in-time and contract purchases amid losses; demand from lithium battery electrolytes and electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid remained stable, supporting high-grade fluorite. In the short term, the tight supply situation is unlikely to ease, and import increases will be limited, so fluorite prices are likely to remain generally stable with a slight rise.

SMM June 26: This week lead prices drifted lower. At the start of the week, mainstream secondary refined lead was offered around parity with SMM #1 lead, with tax-exclusive sources at lower levels; downstream resumptions saw only long-term contract deals. Mid-week, smelters held back from selling and offered sparingly, with only sporadic need-based purchases. At the weekend, the holding-back sentiment intensified, and a few spot orders rose to a premium of 25 yuan/mt. Month-end, downstream players waited on the sidelines for new-month long-term contracts, leaving spot trades sluggish throughout the week. As of June 26, large domestic secondary lead enterprises recorded a per-mt loss of 539 yuan, while small and medium secondary smelters saw losses widen to 740 yuan/mt. Continued weakness in secondary lead prices, coupled with persistently high raw material costs for waste lead-acid batteries, deepened smelter losses WoW. Going forward, although some secondary lead smelters are expected to resume production, ongoing losses and scrap battery raw material supply constraints have led to coexisting reductions and suspensions in the market. Overall secondary lead supply scale next week is expected to be basically flat WoW, and the premium/discount range for secondary refined lead against SMM #1 lead is expected to stay between a discount of 50 yuan/mt and a premium of 50 yuan/mt.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Move Sideways with a Firm Tone, Weak Spot Demand Prompts Traders to Offer Discounts According to SMM on June 22, SS futures showed a pattern of moving sideways with a firm tone. SHFE nickel opened low and moved higher, lifting SS in tandem, though market sentiment remained cautious and the overall fluctuation range narrowed. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 15,125 yuan/mt. In the spot market, despite the relative firmness in SS futures, spot cargo stayed largely stable on the cautious mood. With the onset of the seasonal consumption off-season, demand was weak, inquiries and transactions were sluggish, and some traders actively sold to reduce inventory, leading to certain discounts. SS futures, the most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was at 15,085 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 135-535 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi saw its average price remain flat; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with raw edges, the average price in Wuxi was flat and in Foshan was flat; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil price in Wuxi was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil offers rose 100 yuan/mt in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were steady. This week, stainless steel spot and futures logged wild swings, as overseas macro expectations repeatedly disturbed futures, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The overall pattern was one of macro forces dictating movement, trading activity fluctuating with sentiment, supply constraints propping up spot prices, stable inventory levels, and mild profit recovery. Early in the week, macro tailwinds pro...

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Pre-Holiday Stockpiling Fell Through, Supply and Demand in Secondary Aluminum Market Both Remained Weak

I. Overseas Markets: Driven by Two Core Catalysts – Surging Demand for Stationary Power Generation, Supply Constraints Hinder Aviation Green Hydrogen Rollout (I) European Off-Grid Stationary Fuel Cells Secure Repeat Bulk Orders; Overseas OEMs Restructure Revenue Mix Ballard Power Systems, Canada’s leading fuel cell manufacturer, unveiled a landmark repeat order on June 15: a second 15 MW fuel cell system supply contract from a UK renewable off-grid power producer. The order covers 150 sets of 100 kW automotive-grade fuel cell modules, slated for delivery in H2 2026. These modules will be integrated into hydrogen power generators to replace conventional diesel gensets, serving off-grid power needs at construction sites, film production sets, large-scale events, and critical infrastructure. Underpinning demand remains robust: multiple European nations have rolled out policies phasing out diesel generators for construction and cultural tourism applications. Coupled with prolonged grid connection lead times for industrial parks and data centers, demand for zero-carbon off-grid power sources has expanded rapidly. UK-based GeoPura has deployed Ballard fuel cells at scale to operate charging stations and construction site power supplies, validating the technology’s commercial viability. Strong earnings reflect booming market momentum. In Q1 2026, Ballard’s stationary fuel cell business posted USD 5.2 million in revenue, skyrocketing 775% year-on-year to become the company’s second-largest revenue segment, trailing only its transit fuel cell division. This repeat order confirms sustainable, replicable growth in the overseas off-grid power segment. A new industry trend has emerged: automotive fuel cell modules are downward-compatible with stationary power applications, enabling manufacturers to amortize production costs across shared assembly lines and unlock profit upside. Parallel demand is emerging for AI computing backup power. Global tech giants are ramping up investments in hydrogen backup power. Microsoft and Amazon continue to deploy megawatt-scale fuel cell setups for data center power supply. Boasting millisecond load switching capability and zero carbon emissions, hydrogen has become the prime alternative to diesel gensets for AI computing campuses, creating dual demand alongside Europe’s construction and tourism sectors. (II) UK Launches SAF Policy Consultation; Long-Term Green Hydrogen Demand via PtL Jet Fuel Secured, Yet Severe Short-Term Capacity Gaps Persist Over the past two weeks, the UK Department for Transport (DFT) officially launched a public consultation on its mandatory sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blending mandate, focusing on industry-wide capacity assessments for hydrogen-based power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels. The initiative signals two pivotal industry shifts: Mandatory policy locks in long-term green hydrogen demand. The UK’s SAF blending rules will take effect by end-2026, requiring 0.2% of jet fuel to come from green hydrogen-derived PtL feedstocks by 2028, rising to 3.5% by 2040. Meanwhile, caps will be imposed on waste oil-based HEFA fuel usage, forcing jet fuel producers to comply with regulations via green hydrogen paired with captured CO₂ to synthesize PtL fuels. This opens vast long-term upside for green hydrogen, with the industry widely viewing mandatory PtL blending as a core permanent growth driver for hydrogen demand. Near-term industrial bottlenecks trigger a transitional industry adjustment phase. The UK currently hosts no commercial-scale PtL jet fuel production facilities. Projects face compounded headwinds including constrained renewable power supply, elevated green hydrogen costs, limited carbon capture feedstock sources, and financing hurdles. Industry stakeholders report production timelines for advanced non-HEFA fuels lag policy targets, prompting government concerns that supply shortages will fail to meet blending obligations. The consultation will evaluate potential adjustments to HEFA volume caps and compliance frameworks. The DFT will consolidate industry feedback in autumn 2026; any policy tweaks could slow near-term investment in PtL projects, though the long-term growth thesis for green hydrogen aviation remains intact. II. Domestic China Market: Top-Tier Policy Catalysts Land, Commercialization Accelerates Across Segments, Cost Disadvantages Remain a Key Hurdle (I) Top-Down Policies Unlock New Incentives; Comprehensive Hydrogen Pilots Unleash Full Industrial Chain Potential At the start of June, three central ministries jointly issued a circular on comprehensive hydrogen application pilots, spurring intense industry discussion over policy implementation details in the subsequent two weeks. Pilots span the entire industrial chain with amplified financial support. The central government has selected urban agglomerations to carry out four-year demonstration programs, with maximum funding awards of RMB 1.6 billion per cluster. Supported use cases extend beyond traditional fuel cell vehicles to green hydrogen chemical production, hydrogen metallurgy, hydrogen-blended power generation, off-grid energy storage, and hydrogen-powered vessels. Two landmark 2030 targets have been formalized: a national fleet of 100,000 fuel cell vehicles and a retail hydrogen price of RMB 25 per kg for transport, with leading regions targeting RMB 15 per kg, laying out clear long-term scale and cost roadmaps for the sector. Leading industry experts align on the sector’s development cycle. During FCVC 2026 (June 10–12), Academician Ouyang Minggao stated the hydrogen industry has crossed the “valley of death,” identifying the next five years as a critical window for large-scale commercialization. Wan Gang, former vice chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, called for accelerated development of wind-solar coupled green hydrogen and cross-regional hydrogen transportation corridors. Aligned policy and industrial consensus have boosted long-term sentiment among primary market investors and A-share hydrogen stock participants. (II) Segmented Commercialization Gains Traction: Industrial Green Hydrogen, Commercial Vehicles, and Domestic Equipment Exports All Deliver Growth Accelerated large-scale green hydrogen deployment in heavy industry. Ningxia Baofeng’s RMB 13.5 billion green hydrogen-coal chemical integration project has entered commissioning, delivering an annual green hydrogen output of 150,000 tons at production costs below RMB 18 per kg, setting a domestic benchmark for low-cost green hydrogen. Baosteel Zhanjiang’s million-ton hydrogen metallurgy production line has achieved full operational capacity, deploying domestically manufactured hydrogen shaft furnace technology to replace imported equipment. Massive industrial hydrogen consumption is driving upstream demand for electrolyzers. As of end-March, China’s installed renewable hydrogen production capacity exceeded 250,000 tons per annum, doubling from end-2024 levels. Scaling penetration of fuel cell commercial vehicles and two-wheelers. Regional hydrogen price data updated June 1 shows retail hydrogen prices of RMB 29–38 per kg across major domestic markets, still above the RMB 25 per kg national target. Nevertheless, 49-ton hydrogen heavy-duty trucks have cut hydrogen consumption to 8.5 kg per 100 km, undercutting diesel trucks in operating costs on select trunk haul routes. Hydrogen two-wheeler pilots are expanding rapidly, with tens of thousands of hydrogen light vehicles deployed in Chengdu, Changzhou, and Huangshi. Fast refueling and stable low-temperature driving range have unlocked new civilian niche demand. Rapid overseas expansion of domestic hydrogen equipment. At the Brazil International Hydrogen Exhibition (June 16–17), a delegation from the Daxing Hydrogen Demonstration Zone in Beijing showcased Chinese electrolyzers and hydrogen heavy-duty trucks to tap Latin American demand. Overseas demand for off-grid power and zero-emission mine power aligns with Ballard’s international order momentum, lifting export growth expectations for domestic fuel cell system and electrolyzer manufacturers. (III) Core Domestic Market Constraint: Elevated End-User Hydrogen Costs Impede Full-Scale Commercialization The latest China Hydrogen Price Index shows clean hydrogen priced at RMB 34.34 per kg in the Yangtze River Delta, RMB 38.13 per kg in the Pearl River Delta, and industrial hydrogen at RMB 29.33 per kg in Henan. Only wind- and solar-rich chemical parks in western China have achieved the RMB 18 per kg low-cost green hydrogen threshold. High costs tied to hydrogen storage and refueling infrastructure allocation erode economic viability for transportation and distributed power applications. For the near term, industry growth will remain concentrated in large-scale industrial hydrogen consumption and policy-subsidized pilot projects. Conclusion Near-term market catalysts stem from overseas power generation equipment orders, domestic pilot policy rollouts, and surging equipment exports. Over the long run, off-grid hydrogen power and green hydrogen aviation will emerge as the sector’s core high-growth tracks. The industry, however, continues to face headwinds including capacity constraints, prohibitive production costs, and project financing challenges.