[SMM Aluminum Express News] Coca-Cola said rising aluminum and PET resin costs contributed to a loss of market share in India during the second quarter, as higher packaging costs and gaps in its mid-priced packaging portfolio affected competitiveness. The company said aluminum and PET prices increased more than expected, while shortages of aluminum cans also disrupted product availability in the market. The company is responding by adjusting prices, sourcing larger aluminum cans from Southeast Asia, and expanding packaging options to recover market share. Coca-Cola said it remains optimistic about long-term growth in India despite the recent cost pressures and supply chain disruptions.

The overseas secondary aluminum market shifted from supply-driven gains to demand-led corrections in H1 as geopolitical risks eased and downstream demand remained weak. At the same time, the UAE, the EU and the US introduced measures to strengthen domestic scrap resource management, reinforcing aluminum scrap's strategic role in global supply chains. In H2, SMM expects demand recovery to be the key driver of prices, while policy will continue to shape trade flows and premium scrap availability.

SMM, July 8: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper rose 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.59%, SHFE lead rose 0.88%, SHFE zinc edged lower, and SHFE tin rose 0.51%. SHFE nickel fell 0.16%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.18%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract rose 0.85%. Overnight, ferrous metals all fell. Stainless steel fell 0.27%, iron ore fell 0.34%, rebar fell 0.2%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.21%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.2%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.74%. Overnight on the overseas market, LME base metals generally fell. LME copper fell 0.57%, LME aluminum rose 0.84%, LME lead rose 0.35%, LME zinc fell 0.22%, LME tin fell 0.19%, and LME nickel fell 1.36%. Overnight in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.22%, COMEX silver fell 3.09%. The most-traded SHFE gold futures contract rose 0.08% overnight, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract fell 0.7%. As of 7:13 am on July 8, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council: Approves the '15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Tourism Power'] The State Council issued a reply regarding the '15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Tourism Power' and approved the plan in principle. The reply stated that the plan's implementation should fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, adhere to tourism serving the people, take promoting high-quality development as the theme, advance deep integration of culture and tourism as the main line, coordinate between government and market, supply and demand, protection and development, domestic and international, development and security, strive to improve the modern tourism system, optimize the spatial layout of tourism, cultivate new drivers for tourism development, enrich tourism supply, unleash consumption potential, improve service quality, promote high-efficiency governance, deepen exchanges and cooperation in the tourism sector, accelerate the building of a tourism power, so that the tourism industry can better serve a better life, promote economic development, build a spiritual home, showcase China's image, and enhance mutual learning among civilizations. [China's June forex reserves down 0.75% MoM; central bank's gold reserves increase for 20th consecutive month] Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) showed that by the end of June 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,416.3 billion, down $26 billion or 0.75% from the end of May. In June 2026, affected by factors such as macroeconomic data of major economies, monetary policies of major central banks and expectations, the US dollar index rose, and global financial asset prices showed mixed performance. The combined effects of exchange rate translation and asset price changes led to a decline in foreign exchange reserves during the month. China's economy has been generally stable and moving toward new and improved development, which helps keep the scale of foreign exchange reserves basically stable. In addition, PBOC data showed that China's gold reserves at end-June stood at 75.44 million ounces (approx. 2,346.446 mt), a MoM increase of 480,000 ounces (approx. 14.93 mt). At end-May, gold reserves were 74.96 million ounces (approx. 2,331.52 mt). This marks the 20th consecutive month of gold purchases. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.22% to 101.09. Soaring oil prices boosted inflation expectations. Additionally, according to the CME FedWatch Tool: the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 26.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 32.4%, of a cumulative 25bp hike is 52.7%, and of a cumulative 50bp hike is 14.9%. The US trade deficit in May hit the largest since March 2025 as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the US Commerce Department on Tuesday showed that the goods and services trade deficit widened 42.2% MoM to $77.6 billion in May. Exports dropped 3.2% in May, dragged down by declines in non-monetary gold exports. Imports rose 3.3%. In the months before the deficit widened, oil and petroleum product exports, boosted by the Iran war, had been helping to offset the continued surge in capital goods imports related to the country's domestic data center construction. The report showed that oil exports continued to grow in May. Meanwhile, imports of computer accessories and semiconductors rose again, while imports of computer and telecom equipment retreated. Recent PMI surveys suggested that imports may also have been boosted by US enterprises stockpiling in advance to avoid war-related supply chain disruptions and price increases. The May trade data will help economists firm up their Q2 GDP estimates. (Jin10 Data App) Macro: Today, data including New Zealand's RBNZ interest rate decision for July 8 and US May wholesale sales MoM will be released. Additionally, watch for: the RBNZ's interest rate decision announcement; RBNZ Governor Bullman's monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures surged, with US crude up 5.32% and Brent crude up 5.49%. The tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a chain reaction. The US Treasury Department announced the revocation of the Iran oil sales waiver, pushing oil prices higher. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury subsequently announced that, effective July 7, it revoked the Iran oil sales waiver previously issued under the framework of the US-Iran interim peace agreement. The waiver was originally valid until August 21. The statement said no new related transactions are allowed. (Wall Street Journal) EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: forecasts 2026 WTI crude oil price at $76.26/bbl, previously $88.32/bbl; forecasts 2027 WTI crude oil price at $60.76/bbl, previously $74.39/bbl; forecasts 2026 Brent crude oil price at $81.91/bbl, previously $95.39/bbl; forecasts 2027 Brent crude oil price at $64.76/bbl, previously $79.39/bbl. (Jin10 Data App)

A senior official from the Democratic Republic of Congo's Ministry of Mines said that although the conflict in the Middle East had previously disrupted sulfuric acid supply chains and raised concerns over copper and cobalt production, no significant impact on the country's overall copper and cobalt output has been observed so far. Copper and cobalt production is therefore expected to remain broadly stable throughout 2026. Earlier, the conflict between the United States and Iran disrupted supplies of sulfuric acid, a key reagent used in copper and cobalt production. At the same time, Zambia, a major supplier of sulfuric acid to the DRC, restricted exports to prioritize domestic demand, prompting some Congolese mining companies to assess the possibility of production cuts. Official data showed that the DRC exported 823,887 tonnes of copper in the first quarter of 2026, up 4.8% year-on-year. Exports of cobalt hydroxide reached 51,940 tonnes (equivalent to approximately 17,054 tonnes of contained cobalt), an increase of 24.5% from a year earlier. Gold exports totalled 6.3 tonnes, valued at US$732 million, highlighting the continued strength of the country's mining exports. During the first quarter of 2026, **CMOC** remained the DRC's largest mineral exporter, while **Glencore** was also a major contributor to the country's copper and cobalt exports. The Ministry of Mines expects copper demand to remain robust and mining operations to stay stable in the coming months. In addition, most mining companies have secured long-term contracts for chemical supplies, maintain strategic inventories, or source chemicals from regional suppliers, limiting the risk of widespread production cuts. However, if supply chain disruptions persist, miners may still face higher production costs and longer lead times for the delivery of key chemicals.

According to data from China Customs, in January-May 2026, China’s combined imports of refined lead and lead products totaled 248,443 mt, surging 291.06% YoY on a cumulative basis. The import window was wide open for most of H1, and overseas cargoes kept pouring in. Total imports had already exceeded the full-year 2025 level. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead products in January-May amounted to only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, remaining at low levels.

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in January-May 2026, China's cumulative imports of refined lead and lead materials totaled 248,443 mt, a YoY surge of 291.06%. The import window remained open throughout H1, with a steady influx of supply from outside China, and total imports had already exceeded the level for the full year 2025. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead materials in January-May stood at only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, and remained at a low level overall.

Three state-run transport corporations in Karnataka, India, are facing rising operating costs due to supply chain disruptions linked to US-Iran tensions. Officials reported that prices of key materials, including spare parts, petrochemical products, liquid urea, aluminium sheets, lubricants and tyre-retreading rubber, have increased by 10%-30% in recent months. At KSRTC, monthly material expenses rose from INR 450 million to INR 540 million, while higher diesel prices added another INR 5 million in monthly fuel costs. Similar cost pressures have been reported by KKRTC and NWKRTC, which are also experiencing higher fuel and procurement expenses. Supply shortages and rising prices across global and domestic supply chains have made it difficult for suppliers to maintain previous contract rates, forcing transport operators to issue new tenders and seek alternative supply sources. Aluminium sheet costs were among the materials affected by the recent disruptions.

As resource security and decarbonization become increasingly important, major economies are strengthening efforts to retain aluminum scrap. From the EU's review of export controls and the U.S. strategic asset proposal to Japan's circular economy initiatives and policies in the UAE and South Africa, these developments could reshape global scrap flows and affect secondary aluminum markets.

Ivanhoe Mines said construction of Kamoa-Kakula’s on-site solar and battery storage facilities remains on schedule, with 60 MW of baseload power expected to be delivered from early Q3 2026. The company also plans to expand on-site solar generation and storage capacity to 120 MW by the end of 2027. In addition, Kamoa-Kakula has secured key operating consumables, including diesel inventory, to mitigate potential supply chain disruptions. Market participants believe the enhanced power infrastructure will strengthen operational reliability and support future production growth.

SMM May 28: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 1%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.08%, SHFE lead declined 0.99%, SHFE zinc lost 0.54%, SHFE tin slid 1.05%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.07%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.82%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.14%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract gained 0.27%. The most-traded silicon metal contract dropped 0.64%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.9%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore edged up, rebar and hot-rolled coil each gained less than 0.5%, and stainless steel fell 0.5%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.09%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.44%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals fell nearly across the board. LME copper dropped 0.2%. LME aluminum and LME lead both fell 0.15%. LME zinc was flat at $3,507.5/mt. LME tin declined 0.55%. LME nickel lost 0.45%. Precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 1.47% and COMEX silver dropped 2.6%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 2.75%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 4.97%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 3.78%, and the most-traded palladium futures declined 3.75%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.22% to 2,995.5 points. As of 11:39 on May 28, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,695 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,590 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly driven by rising arrivals and weakening consumption... Macro Front China: [CSRC Vice Chairman Liu Haoling: Foreign investors' willingness to allocate to China's quality assets continues to rise] On May 28, the 2026 Global Investor Conference hosted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was held in Shenzhen. CSRC Vice Chairman Liu Haoling stated in his address that China's capital market reforms integrating investment and financing had progressed steadily and continued to deliver results, overall market valuations were within a reasonable range, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate to China's quality assets continued to rise. In his address, Liu Haolin stated that China is a major contributor to and stabilizing anchor for global economic growth, and a fertile ground for foreign enterprises to invest and do business. Since the beginning of this year, foreign capital has been flowing steadily into China's stock market through various channels. As of now, various overseas investors hold over 4 trillion yuan in A-share tradable market capitalization, making them important participants in China's capital market. (Wallstreetcn) PBOC conducted 101.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with the operation rate at 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 100 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.25% to 99.48. Persistently high energy prices intensified market concerns about a resurgence in inflation. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee on Thursday further reinforced his warning: rising market expectations for AI's potential to boost productivity could push up inflation and force the US Fed and other central banks to raise interest rates. Goolsbee said: "The more hype there is about future productivity, the higher rates may need to go to prevent the economy from overheating. More importantly, facing supply shocks in the short term—whether from oil prices, supply chain disruptions, or other factors—makes the problem even worse." The above remarks further expanded on the views Goolsbee first publicly raised earlier this month. He questioned the notion that AI could suppress inflation and thereby create room for central banks to cut interest rates—a view championed by many officials in the Trump administration as well as new US Fed Chair Warsh. In the 1990s, as computers became more widely adopted, US productivity rose unexpectedly, driving rapid economic growth without triggering inflation. However, Goolsbee argued that if productivity gains are anticipated by the market, the situation would be different. Markets could trigger a spending boom in advance, pushing up prices before actual productivity gains materialize. US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said he expected inflation to cool later this year as the effects of tariffs and rising energy costs fade, but he warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. In remarks prepared for delivery at a Bank of Japan-hosted conference in Tokyo on Thursday morning, Jefferson said he is watching for signs that rising energy costs from the Iran war are weighing on consumer spending. He also warned that he continued to see signs of weakness in the labour market. Jefferson reiterated his view that the central bank's current policy stance was well positioned to respond to any developments. Jefferson stated, "I am not prejudging the next meeting and look forward to engaging with my colleagues on the best policy to achieve our dual mandate goals." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: The Bank of Korea's six-month dot plot showed that among 21 dots, 7 were at 2.75%, 10 at 3%, 2 at 3.25%, and 2 at 2.5%. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Data: Data to be released today include the eurozone May industrial confidence index, eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, and US April durable goods orders MoM. In addition, attention should be paid to: the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech. Crude oil: As of 11:39, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 3.1% and Brent up 3.07%. US-Iran tensions escalated again, driving crude oil higher. US President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with negotiations with Iran, and the White House subsequently denied Iranian media reports of progress in peace talks, quickly dampening earlier market optimism about a ceasefire agreement. The US-Iran conflict entered its fourth month, with ceasefire prospects remaining uncertain. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said at a cabinet meeting at the White House on the 27th that the US and Iran had not yet reached a deal and the US was "dissatisfied" with this, fully rejecting the potential mechanism for joint US-Iran-Oman management of the Strait of Hormuz. (Wallstreetcn) The American Petroleum Institute (API) released data showing that US crude oil and gasoline inventories both declined last week. US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 22 was -2.819 million barrels, versus expectations of -4.367 million barrels and a prior value of -9.11 million barrels. US API gasoline inventory for the week ending May 22 was -3.199 million barrels, versus expectations of -2.896 million barrels and a prior value of -5.795 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►