SMM, July 6 news: In June, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up, with the US dollar index gaining over 2% for the month. This was compounded by the electronics industry entering its traditional off-season and weak end-use demand, along with market skepticism over the sustainability of the AI sector's boom, which led to concentrated profit-taking from earlier high-level positions. Multiple factors jointly dragged tin prices lower, with SHFE tin falling 7.08% and LME tin dropping 6.68% in June monthly. Entering July, Warsh remarked at the Sintra Forum that "inflation expectations have declined and inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks." Coupled with US June non-farm payrolls data coming in below expectations, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes cooled somewhat. Meanwhile, tech stocks staged a rebound. Multiple tailwinds drove tin prices to drift higher in early July. As of around 16:51 on July 6, LME tin rose 1.26% to $52,970/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 2.56%; SHFE tin gained 3.09% to 410,360 yuan/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 5.4%. Spot side, in June, tin prices fell over 8%; in July, spot prices rose for several consecutive sessions, but a strong wait-and-see sentiment pervaded the market. For tin spot prices: SMM 1# tin spot prices posted four consecutive gains, quoted at 406,900–415,300 yuan/mt on July 6, with an average price of 411,100 yuan/mt, up 2.96% from the prior trading day. As tin prices rebounded, wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market intensified, with only some rigid demand purchases occurring and subdued overall trading activity. Looking at the monthly trend of tin spot prices, the average price of SMM 1# tin as of June 30 was 387,800 yuan/mt. Compared with the average price of 425,000 yuan/mt on May 29, it fell by 37,200 yuan/mt over the span of just over a month, a decline of 8.75%. Notably, when tin prices approached 380,000 yuan/mt, downstream enterprise restocking demand saw a phase of release. Fundamental side ► Production: June Refined Tin Production Edges Up MoM According to data compiled by SMM based on market communication, in June 2026, China's refined tin production edged up MoM, with overall output remaining relatively steady. The slight uptick in June refined tin production was driven by two main factors: On one hand, raw material supply showed marginal improvement, as previous incremental overseas tin ore imports materialized. Although the pace of production resumptions at Myanmar mines remained slow, ore has been flowing out continuously, alleviating domestic raw material shortages to some extent. On the other hand, increased arrivals of imported ore cargoes drove smelting TCs steadily higher, offering a phased easing of the longstanding raw material tightness and creating conditions for smelters to raise operating rates and boost output. However, future production expansion faces multiple constraints: from May to July every year, Myanmar enters its traditional rainy season, which limits both open-pit mining operations and ore transport. As a result, short-term imported ore volumes are expected to pull back MoM. Overall, the refined tin supply is marginally loose at present, but downstream industries have entered the traditional consumption off-season, weakening both supply and demand sides simultaneously. In the short term, a significant output surge appears unlikely. ►Imports: Tin ore imports rose both YoY and MoM in May; imports from Myanmar surged 384.5% YoY In May, China’s tin ore imports reached 16,800 mt (equivalent to about 6,408 mt in metal content), up 7.07% MoM and 25.61% YoY, an increase of 1,221 mt in metal content from April (which was equivalent to 5,187 mt). January-May cumulative imports totaled 85,900 mt, up 71.41% YoY. In May, China’s tin ingot imports were 1,838 mt, down 34.4% MoM and 11.46% YoY; January-April cumulative imports reached 11,196 mt, up 17.75% YoY. Import and export data for the tin industry chain from 2025 to May 2026 show that the global tin market’s supply-demand pattern is undergoing significant structural adjustments, characterized by accelerating recovery of overseas mine supply, easing of domestic raw material supply pressure, increased smelting output due to lower raw material costs, and constrained exports amid weak overseas demand. In terms of raw material supply, cumulative tin ore imports in January-May 2026 reached 85,998 mt, surging 71.41% YoY, while May alone registered 16,831 mt, up 7.07% MoM and soaring 25.61% YoY. This strong rebound was mainly driven by the recovery of Myanmar ore, with tin ore imports from Myanmar hitting 6,634 mt in May, skyrocketing 384.5% YoY, and the January-May cumulative figure spiking as high as 203.49% YoY. In contrast, although tin ore imports from countries other than Myanmar still maintained a cumulative increase of 34.72%, they declined 15.23% YoY in May alone, indicating a more moderate recovery in ore supply from non-Myanmar sources. ►Inventories: SMM weekly tin ingot social inventory across three regions continued destocking for four consecutive weeks. China’s tin ingot social inventory: According to SMM data, as of July 4, 2026, the total tin ingot social inventory across three regions in China stood at 7,299 mt, a sharp WoW decline of 1,374 mt, or 15.84%, from 8,673 mt the prior week (June 26). In terms of trend, since the stage high of 13,604 mt in early June, China’s tin ingot social inventory has been destocking for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative destocking of as much as 46.4% over the past month. The destocking slope exhibited a “slow-then-steep” characteristic. The current inventory level has fallen back to the year’s low, and the market supply-demand pattern has seen notable marginal improvement. Observing by region, inventory in Shanghai dropped to 3,750 mt, a weekly decrease of 996 mt, contributing 72.5% of the total weekly destocking volume, making it the dominant driver of this destocking round and reflecting faster trade turnover in east China and a substantive rebound in downstream purchase willingness. Guangdong inventory fell in tandem to 3,449 mt, down 378 mt WoW, accounting for 27.5% of total destocking, confirming that downstream rigid demand, led by solder enterprises in south China, maintained resilience and the pace of stockpiling picked up. The underlying logic is driven, on the one hand, by restocking after price pullbacks: the previously high tin price dampened downstream purchases, but this inhibitory effect gradually subsided as prices recently returned to rational levels, unleashing pent-up rigid orders in a concentrated manner and accelerating the digestion of visible inventory. LME Tin Inventory: LME tin inventory data stood at 8,575 mt on June 30, compared with 8,850 mt on May 29, indicating a decline in LME tin inventory during June. SMM Outlook On the macro front: In July, multiple macro events in and outside China will continue to disturb tin price movements. Overseas, focus on the minutes of the June US Fed FOMC meeting, US CPI and PCE inflation data, and the month-end US Fed meeting. Earlier, Waller indicated that inflation risks have eased, while the June non-farm payrolls data missed expectations, leading to a phased cooling of market bets on rate hikes. If subsequent inflation data rebound again and the US Fed strikes a hawkish tone, a stronger US dollar will weigh on tin prices; otherwise, continued easing expectations will provide valuation support for tin prices. Domestically, the central bank has increased liquidity injections, ultra-long special government bonds are being steadily implemented, and stimulus policies related to high-end manufacturing technological transformation and equipment upgrades are gradually taking effect, which will benefit medium and long-term consumption in tin downstream sectors such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy. However, in the short term, the weak pattern of the traditional off-season in the electronics sector is unlikely to reverse quickly, and the pace at which domestic demand policy dividends are released will directly determine the strength of downstream spot restocking. Fundamentals: On the supply side, the overall tightness of tin ore supply persists, though marginal supply increase signals have grown; smelters are maintaining steady production with no large-scale production cuts for now. On the demand side, the market has entered the traditional consumption off-season, with downstream solder enterprises generally cautious in procurement, relying solely on rigid-demand purchases, while high prices are significantly suppressing purchase willingness. On the inventory side, tin inventories both in and outside China remain in a destocking trend, providing inventory-side support for tin prices. In summary, changes in macro expectations combined with the performance of the tech sector will influence the amplitude of tin price fluctuations. Tight ore supply and low overall inventories form a relatively strong fundamental floor, underpinning tin prices; but weak demand during the off-season will continue to drag on futures, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Looking ahead, close attention should be paid to the US Fed's policy direction and the prosperity of the semiconductor industry chain, while continuously observing the pace of destocking in and outside China, and waiting for a substantive recovery on the demand side, which can then bring new upward momentum to tin prices. Recommended reading:

SMM CRC Production Schedule: July Steel Mill CRC Production Schedule Down 2%, Daily Average Down 6% According to the latest SMM tracking, the planned cold-rolled commercial material volume of 31 mainstream cold-rolled sheet/coil steel mills this month totaled 4.1115 million mt, down 99,700 mt or 2.4% MoM from the actual cold-rolled commercial material production last month. On a daily average basis, with one more day in July than in June, the daily average scheduled cold-rolled commercial material production in July was 132,600 mt, down 5.5% MoM from the actual daily average production last month. SMM HRC Production Schedule: July Steel Mills' HRC Scheduled Production Up 1% Daily Average Down 2% According to the latest SMM tracking, 39 mainstream HRC mills have a total planned commercial HRC output of 13.4457 million mt this month, up 132,800 mt, or 1.0%, MoM. On a daily average basis, July has one more day than June. The daily average scheduled commercial HRC production in July is 433,700 mt, down 2.3% from the actual daily average production in June. Recently, steel mill profits have shrunk sharply, and pressure to take orders has increased significantly amid the off-season. Some mills have added new maintenance and production-cut plans. Combined, these factors led to the MoM decline in the daily average HRC scheduled production in July. In summary, the total planned commercial HRC output in July was basically flat MoM, but due to more days in July than June, the daily average scheduled production edged down MoM. Demand side, Q2 remained in the domestic off-season, with downstream purchases and market transactions performing sluggishly. Inventory pressure is expected to keep rising, and the supply-demand imbalance is gradually accumulating. The HRC supply-demand pattern provides limited support for prices. Overall, the HRC supply-demand imbalance is gradually building up, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for costs to rise further in the short term. Considering that macro expectations and changes in external conflicts provide limited stimulus to steel prices, HRC prices in July are expected to consolidate near the bottom, with the average price likely to edge down slightly from June.

July 2, 2026 Following the extreme price drop from $5,500 to below $4,000 per ounce, the gold market is currently struggling to find direction. The key question now is: Will the second half of 2026 cement a sideways trend, or will new factors spark the next rally? The latest outlook from the World Gold Council (WGC) provides answers to these questions. Currently, the precious metal is stabilizing amid moderate growth, persistent inflation, and easing concerns about interest rates. The WGC sees the fair value for the coming months at around $4,100, but expects a fluctuation range of five percent. However, a massive upward breakout remains a realistic scenario: economic downturns, geopolitical escalations, or falling interest rate expectations could quickly drive the price back above $4,500, the WGC said. On the downside, the market is well-protected, as experience shows that pullbacks of more than 10 percent quickly attract countercyclical buyers. The extreme price volatility in the first half of the year, triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict, would gradually subside, the WGC continued, and return to historical averages. The regional dynamics are particularly interesting: While sharp sell-offs have recently occurred primarily during U.S. trading hours, Asian investors have regularly driven strong recoveries. This underscores Asia’s growing market influence on global price formation. Gold: Asia’s Market Influence Grows According to WGC experts, two heavyweights will significantly dictate price trends for the rest of the year: central banks and the Indian market. Despite isolated portfolio shifts in the first quarter, WGC data for 2026 signal sustained buying interest from the official sector. Every additional purchase above the long-term average not only strengthens physical demand but also sends a strong buying signal to institutional investors. The situation in India is the opposite. To conserve foreign exchange reserves in the face of high energy prices, the Indian government has drastically raised gold import duties from 6 to 15 percent and has actively worked to curb purchases. Although this fundamental shift for the world’s second-largest gold market has, according to the WGC, already been largely priced in at current levels, a further economic slowdown in India could place additional pressure on physical demand there as well as on the market for gold-backed loans. In summary, gold remains caught between these forces. Without new macroeconomic catalysts, stabilization at current levels is the most likely scenario. However, should new signs of crisis emerge, the fundamental upside potential is immense, while the downside risk is effectively limited by the reliable network of central banks and long-term investors. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-forecast-wgc-sees-potential-for-a-breakout-above-usd4-500

The China rhenium market in H1 2026 generally saw an initial rise and stabilization, followed by a mild pullback and consolidation at highs, driven by four core factors: rigid raw material supply, supply-demand tug-of-war in the industry chain, structural divergence between investment and industrial demand, and price divergence between domestic and overseas markets. In H1, rhenium prices remained supported at high levels by structural supply deficits, yet trading stayed persistently sluggish with strong industry-wide wait-and-see sentiment; there was no clear unilateral trend, and a tug-of-war between longs and shorts ran throughout the period. I. Early February: Cooling Trading, Counter-Trend Price Rise In early February, the rhenium market showed a typical split: market activity fell MoM, but prices climbed steadily. On the sentiment side, gold and silver price fluctuations triggered a cautious mood across precious metals, which spilled over into the minor metals segment—there were many inquiries but few actual deals, with only small amounts of rigid demand supporting transactions, and cautious selling by retail investors led to a significant cooling in trading. On the price side, the core support came from tightening raw material supply. Ammonium rhenate supply remained tight and prices rose, sharply lifting smelting costs for midstream processors and pushing up finished product prices like rhenium pellets. Meanwhile, raw material prices rose faster than the pace of finished product price adjustments, squeezing midstream margins; the industry widely increased scrap recovery ratios to offset cost pressure. At that time, Sinopec’s tender for ammonium rhenate failed, confirming upstream producers’ inclination to hold back from selling and hold prices firm, bullish on the outlook. In the medium and long term, incremental rhenium recovery from copper-molybdenum smelting is limited by raw ore grades and technical barriers, making it difficult to fully close the supply gap, which provides sustained high-level support for rhenium prices. II. Post-Chinese New Year to Early Q2: High-Level Stalemate, Intensified Supply-Demand Tug-of-War After the Chinese New Year holiday, the rhenium market entered a prolonged consolidation phase at highs. Mainstream quotations for raw materials stabilized at 27,000–28,000 yuan/kg, with a few high-priced sources touching 30,000 yuan/kg; the price range was firm with minimal fluctuations. Upstream hold-back-from-selling attitudes gradually softened, with small-scale selling to test market acceptance, but without concentrated dumping, supply increments were manageable and the rigid supply structure remained intact. Midstream processors focused on delivering pre-holiday orders, with production schedules full from March to April. However, their acceptance of high-priced ammonium rhenate was low, and they generally negotiated rationally, refusing to rush to buy amid the continuous price rise. Downstream demand showed structural divergence: investment appetite continued to cool—retail investors exited and low-price selling increased, weighing on market sentiment; meanwhile, steady recovery in industrial demand from aviation, catalysts, and other sectors provided fundamental support, offsetting some bearish factors. At the same time, capital rotated into the energy sector, and speculative interest in minor metals waned, leaving rhenium prices lacking strong upward momentum. Overseas critical mineral competition intensified, raising import supply chain uncertainty and providing long-term bottom support for the market. III. Late Q2: China Pulls Back Weakly, Overseas Strengthens Against Trend In late H1, China’s rhenium market weakened slightly, with raw material and finished product prices pulling back simultaneously, while overseas markets rose independently, resulting in a significant divergence between domestic and overseas trends. In China, the mainstream transaction range for ammonium perrhenate pulled back to 26,000-27,000 yuan/kg, and small and medium-sized producers offered low-priced goods to recoup funds, with spot order prices dropping to 24,000-25,000 yuan/kg, dragging down the overall price center. The mainstream transaction price for rhenium pellets pulled back to around 46,000 yuan/kg. The tug-of-war in the industry chain further intensified. After concentrated restocking at the beginning of the year, downstream inventories were sufficient. Entering the traditional off-season, purchasing sentiment was cautious, with a strong willingness to push for lower prices and probe the bottom, mostly making purchases based on rigid demand in small lots. Upstream still held expectations for the future market, controlling volumes and selling cautiously, which capped the downside room and prevented a sharp decline. Overseas markets saw strong demand resilience and tight supply, with prices of ammonium perrhenate and rhenium pellets continuing to rise. However, the rise in overseas markets had limited boosting effect on the domestic market, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to diverge. IV. Summary of Key Bullish and Bearish Factors in H1 (I) Key Bullish Factors First, as a rare and dispersed metal by-product of copper and molybdenum, rhenium has strong primary supply rigidity, while recovery capacity release is slow, leading to a long-standing structural supply-demand gap. Second, intensified exclusivity in the critical minerals supply chain outside China has raised import risks, and expectations of tightening supply in the long term underpin the market. Third, industrial rigid demand has been recovering steadily, providing continuous fundamental support. Fourth, upstream producers’ willingness to hold prices firm is solid, with no concentrated sell-offs, limiting downside room for the market. (II) Key Bearish Factors First, the ebb of speculative capital and repeated retail selling disturbed spot prices, with sluggish trading activity. Second, raw material cost transmission was sluggish, squeezing midstream profits, increasing the substitution ratio of scrap, and contracting demand for primary ammonium perrhenate. Third, after completing phased restocking, downstream purchasing willingness was weak in the off-season, making it difficult to spur a market rebound. Fourth, the decoupling of domestic and overseas market trends prevented the bullish benefit of overseas price increases from transmitting to the domestic market. V. Overall Summary of H1 In H1 2026, the rhenium market overall showed features of consolidating at highs, mixed bullish and bearish factors, and weak transactions. The market underwent three stages: price increases, sideways consolidation, and a weak pullback. The core contradiction has always been the two-way balance between rigid upstream supply underpinning prices and weak downstream demand, coupled with capital outflows capping gains. Industry chain profits diverged significantly: the upstream resource segment had stable earnings, while midstream processing enterprises remained under pressure, and the industry accelerated the pace of scrap recovery and recycling. Overall, there was no one-sided trend in H1. The tug-of-war between suppliers and buyers dominated market movements. The structural supply-demand gap supported high-level operation and laid the fundamental foundation for the rhenium market’s consolidating pattern in H2.

SMM News, July 6: Data Summary: As of Monday, July 6, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China decreased by 15,200 mt WoW from last Monday to 192,200 mt. Total inventory increased by 49,300 mt compared to the same period last year's 142,900 mt, with all regions showing destocking. Specifically, in Shanghai, arrivals of both imported and domestic copper continued to pull back, and inventories continued the destocking trend. In Jiangsu, the pace of inbound and outbound shipments was basically flat, with limited inventory fluctuations. In Guangdong, arrivals of domestic copper decreased significantly, driving down regional inventories. Market Outlook: In the short term, arrivals of imported copper and domestic copper cathode are expected to remain low, and overall market supply will be tight. On the demand side, copper price consolidation is weighing on downstream purchase willingness; enterprises mostly make just-in-time procurement, and stockpiling enthusiasm is weak. Survey shows that the operating rate of copper cathode rod this week is expected to increase to 68%, up 0.23 percentage points WoW. Taking into account supply-demand dynamics, the market will see tight supply and persistent just-in-time procurement in the short term. China's copper social inventory is expected to continue destocking next week.

SMM July 6: Today, spot lead prices edged lower, while the futures market maintained a fluctuating trend. Downstream smelters' raw material purchase quotations remained broadly stable, with no significant price adjustments for the time being, as most held a wait-and-see sentiment awaiting market clarity. Currently, inventories at China's secondary lead smelters are at relatively low levels, and many enterprises saw their June raw material inventories continue to decline. Dragged by the weak market, the industry's overall operating rate extended its pullback last week, and smelters' willingness to actively raise purchase prices to acquire materials for restocking remained subdued. In the short term, spot lead lacks strong bullish support, making it difficult for smelters' raw material purchasing enthusiasm to improve. Purchase prices are expected to remain largely stable.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidated at Highs and Tested 410,000, While Spot Market Trading Was Sluggish]

[Overseas Macro Bullishness Battles Supply Bearishness, China's Destocking Supports SHFE Aluminum Bottom] On the domestic front, bullish factors are prominent. The proportion of liquid aluminum has continued to rise. Over the past week, aluminum ingot warehouse withdrawals hit a four-year high, and the pace of inventory destocking has accelerated significantly, forming support for the bottom of SHFE aluminum. Amid the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, overseas, the bullish impact of the US dollar and the bearish forces from supply and geopolitics offset each other. After its earlier excessive decline, LME aluminum's downward momentum has slowed, and in the short term, it is mainly consolidating at lows for repair; domestically, supported by rapid destocking, the probability of underperforming LME aluminum is low. The SHFE and LME markets may show slight divergence, and a sustained unilateral weak trend is unlikely.

[July 6 Morning Briefing] The US added 57,000 nonfarm jobs in June, below market expectations of an increase of 110,000. The combined job gains for April and May were revised down by 74,000. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract surged to the 128,000 yuan/mt level in early trading before pulling back slightly, and by the end of the morning session it was reported at 127,190 yuan/mt, up 0.59%. The US nonfarm payrolls report came in surprisingly weak, leading the market to turn more cautious on the employment outlook. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes cooled markedly, and the US dollar fell sharply, providing a catalyst for a rebound in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be in the doldrums in the 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt range.

[SMM Analysis] SHFE copper cathode spot premiums experienced notable volatility in H1 2026, marked by deep discounts in phases, a recovery in Q2, and a return to positive territory by mid-year. In Q1, seasonal inventory buildup after the Chinese New Year, slow downstream recovery, and disruptions from contract rollovers repeatedly put spot premiums under pressure. Entering Q2, consumption improved QoQ, and concentrated smelter maintenance drove continuous destocking of domestic social inventory. In particular, the rapid decline in Guangdong inventory lifted spot premiums in South China, opened arbitrage opportunities for shipping inventory from East China to South China, and provided support to premiums in Shanghai and other regions. From May to June, although high copper prices and off-season expectations suppressed downstream purchases, the widening LME-COMEX spread diverted overseas supply to the US market, constraining the pace of imported copper replenishment in China, with low inventory levels still underpinning spot market resilience. Looking ahead to H2, SHFE copper premiums will be shaped by the interplay of inventory, consumption, imports, and supply additions. The Q3 off-season may limit the upside for premiums, but low inventories, uncertainty over import replenishment, and tight regional supply will continue to support spot premiums. In Q4, attention should be focused on the capacity ramp-up of new expansion projects such as Humon Phase 2, Chifeng Jintong Phase 2, and Shenghai Phase 2. If new supply is released smoothly, the import window opens, and consumption recovery remains weak, spot premiums may gradually come under pressure. However, if inventories stay low and import replenishment remains limited, premiums could still see intermittent strengthening opportunities.